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Jehl & Kreilach Financial Management Presents:

WEEKLYECONOMICUPDATE July 16, 2012

WEEKLYQUOTE “People often say that motivation doesn’t last. Well, neither does bathing – that’s why we recommend it daily.”

CONSUMER SENTI MEN T CONTIN UES TO SLIP Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the University of Michigan’s initial July consumer sentiment index to show a minor gain. That didn’t happen: instead of the projected 0.2% rise to 73.4, the index fell 1.2%to 72.0, a low unseen since December. An exclamation point within the data: just 19%of Americans polled felt that their financial situation would improve within the next year, a record low for the survey. The barometer of current economic conditions did improve to 83.2 from 81.5.1

- Zig Ziglar

PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.1% IN JUNE

WEEKLYTIP

Given the 0.9%decline in energy prices last month, this overall gain in the Producer Price Index was surprising. The cost of gasoline increased 1.9%last month and food prices climbed as well, influencing the advance. Core PPI rose 0.2%in June.1

As you retire, look at the changesin your expenses.Will your mortgage soon be paid off? What businessrelated expenseswill disappear, and what new expenseswill emerge?This may matter greatly in your retirement planning.

WEEKLYRIDDLE Note this alphabetic progression: B, C, D, E, G. What letter should then follow as the sixth letter in this successive series? Last week’s riddle: I may be red, green or yellow. Eat me, and you may stay a healthy fellow. My interior is white; I don’t give off light. What am I? Last week’s answer: An apple.

OIL, GOLD & RETAIL GAS PRICES MOVE NORTH Pump prices increased 0.9%last week, according to AAA’s Daily Fuel GaugeReport; they are up 1.0%so far for the month. NYMEX crude gained 3.14%last week to settle Friday at $87.10a barrel; gold advanced 0.86%on the COMEXfor the week, with those futures settling Friday at $1,592.50per ounce.2

DOW CLIMBS 200 POINTS ON FRIDAY THE 13TH Why? China’s latest annualized GDPestimate (+7.6%)was not as bad as forecasters expected, and Q2results from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo were encouraging, even as Moody’s cut Italy’s credit rating Friday to two notches above junk level. After its 204-point Friday gain, the DJIA settled at 12,777.09. The NASDAQended Friday at 2,908.47,while the S&P500 closed at 1,356.77.Across the week, the Dow went +0.04%,the S&P+0.15%and the NASDAQ-0.98%.2,3,4 THIS WEEK: Monday, CensusBureau data on June retail sales arrives plus Q2results from Citigroup, Charles Schwab and Gannett. Tuesday, the June CPI and June industrial output data appear, Ben Bernanke starts two days of testimony in Congress, and earnings reports emerge from Yahoo!, Intel, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and Mattel. On Wednesday, a new Fed Beige Book is out, June housing starts and building permits figures arrive and we have earnings from Bank of America, U.S.Bancorp, American Express, PNCBank, Honeywell, Qualcomm, Yum! Brands and eBay. Thursday, NARoffers June existing home sales data, new initial claims numbers appear and Q2 results arrive from Philip Morris, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley, Novartis, SanDisk, Capital One, Nokia, Travelers, Verizon, BB&T, Google, AMD, Chipotle, E*Trade and Southwest Airlines. Friday, we have IPOsfrom Kayak and Fender and Q2 earnings from GEand Xerox. % CHANGE

Y­T­D

1­YR CHG

5­YR AVG

10­YR AVG

DJIA

+4.58

+2.29

­1.63

+4.71

NASDAQ

+11.64

+3.99

+1.49

+11.18

S&P 500

+7.89

+2.96

­2.52

+4.73

REAL YIELD

7/13 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

­0.59%

0.59%

2.73%

3.10%

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov ­ 7/13/12 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 3,5,6,7


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Citations. 1 - www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/13/usa-economy-idUSL2E8ID23U20120713[7/13/12] 2 - money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=96140b67-efa5-49c8-9ffc-85cd17eaea41[7/13/12] 3 - www.cnbc.com/id/48174616[7/13/12] 4 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29[7/13/12] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F13%2F11&x=0&y=0[7/13/12] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F13%2F11&x=0&y=0[7/13/12] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F13%2F11&x=0&y=0[7/13/12] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F13%2F07&x=0&y=0[7/13/12] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F13%2F07&x=0&y=0[7/13/12] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F13%2F07&x=0&y=0[7/13/12] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F12%2F02&x=0&y=0[7/13/12] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F12%2F02&x=0&y=0[7/13/12] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F12%2F02&x=0&y=0[7/13/12] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/13/12] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/13/12] 7 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm71002.pdf [7/10/02]


Weekly Economic Update