Jehl & Kreilach Financial Management Presents:
WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE March 11, 2013
WEEKLY QUOTE “Simplicity is the key to brilliance.” - Bruce Lee
WEEKLY TIP If you paid an au pair, maid or other domestic employee more than $1,800 in 2012, you are looking at the “nanny tax”. See IRS Publication 926 and talk with your tax advisor.
WEEKLY RIDDLE You can’t outrun it or hide from it. You only notice it when there is light, but it shows only darkness. What is it? Last week’s riddle: Kristi and David live at opposite ends of a metro area but attend the same college. David left for campus 30 minutes before Kristi and they met at a coffee house. Who was closer to campus when they met? Last week’s answer: They were both at the same distance from campus when they met each other, as they met at the same location.
HIRING HAS REALLY PICKED UP During June-August 2012, non-farm payrolls grew by an average of 135,000 jobs a month. Across September-November, that average improved to 181,000 per month. From December-February, the economy added an average of 191,000 jobs a month. The icing on the cake: the latest monthly report from the Labor Department showed 236,000 new jobs generated in February, including the biggest monthly surge of hiring in the construction industry in six years. Unemployment fell to a four-year low of 7.7% in February, but the percentage of Americans either working or looking for work hit a 30-year low – 130,000 people dropped out of the job hunt. 1
KEY INDEX SHOWS HEALTHY SERVICE SECTOR The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing PMI came in at 56.0 for February – the best reading in 12 months, up from 55.2 in January. ISM noted a 3.8% increase in new orders, a 5.5% rise in backlogs of orders and a 3.7% gain in prices last month.2
BEIGE BOOK ENCOURAGES, BUT FACTORY ORDERS DIP The Federal Reserve’s latest “Beige Book” survey of economic conditions noted modest growth in most of its 12 districts since January, with increased hiring a major factor. Last week, the Commerce Department reported a 1.2% rise in wholesale inventories and a 2.0% drop in factory orders for January. 3,4
MORE HISTORY IS MADE A 2.18% weekly gain brought the DJIA to a new record close of 14,397.07 Friday. The S&P 500 (+2.17% to 1,551.18), NASDAQ (+2.35% to 3,244.37) and Russell 2000 (+3.04% to 942.50) also had terrific weeks. As for the CBOE VIX, it dropped 17.84% in five days to finish last week at 12.62. Gold ended the week at $1,577.7o per ounce on the COMEX, oil at $91.88 a barrel on the NYMEX.4,5 THIS WEEK: On Monday, earnings reports arrive from Urban Outfitters and Dick’s Sporting Goods. Costco reports earnings on Tuesday. Wednesday, the Census Bureau gives us retail sales figures for February, the Commerce Department notes January business inventories, and Express, Inc. announces quarterly results. February’s PPI arrives Thursday, plus Q4 results from Aeropostale. Friday is a quadruple witching day that also sees the release of the February CPI, data on February industrial output, and the preliminary March consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. % CHANGE
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Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 3/8/13 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 4,6,7,8
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Registered Representative and Principal, Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research Inc., broker/dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC to residents of: IN, AK, FL, IA, IL, MI, MN, MO, TN, CT, CA, NY, NJ, SC, VA and OH. Advisory Services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor to residents of: IN, AK, FL, IA, IL, MI, MN, MO, TN, CT, CA, NY, NJ, SC, VA and OH. Jehl & Kreilach Financial Management and Cambridge are not affiliated. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
Citations. 1 - www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_22746707/us-adds-236k-jobs-unemployment-falls-7-7 [3/8/13] 2 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [3/5/13] 3 - online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324178904578343432769615600.html [3/6/13] 4 - www.cnbc.com/id/100537377 [3/8/13] 5 - online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html [3/8/13] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/8/13] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/8/13] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [3/8/13] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/8/13] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/8/13] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [3/8/13] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [3/8/13] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [3/8/13] 6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [3/8/13] 7 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/8/13] 8 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/8/13]