Jehl & Kreilach Financial Management Presents:
WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE February 18, 2013
WEEKLY QUOTE “A friend is one who walks in when others walk out.” - Walter Winchell
RETAIL SALES RISE IN JANUARY The increase was minimal – just 0.1% after the 0.5% advance in December – but still welcome in the face of the 2013 payroll tax hike and higher gas prices. Commerce Department data showed core retail sales (which exclude auto, gas and home improvement purchases) up 0.1% for January; they rose 0.7% in December. 1
CONSUMERS REGAIN SOME OPTIMISM WEEKLY TIP See that the family member who will pay nursing home bills meets face-to-face with the person who handles billing for the facility. If there is ever a billing dispute or error, a face-toface relationship may help resolve it faster.
WEEKLY RIDDLE If a single-engine airplane taxied not onto a runway, but onto an enormous conveyer belt whose speed precisely equaled that of the plane in the opposite direction, could the plane still manage to take off? Last week’s riddle: Two men played five games of chess in the park. They both won the same number of games, yet none of the games they played ended in a draw. So how could this be? Last week’s answer: They didn’t play each other.
January’s preliminary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan showed real improvement – an increase of 2.5 points to a three-month peak of 76.3. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a reading of 74.8. The index averaged just 64.2 during the 2007-2009 recession. 2
GOLD FALLS $26 IN A DAY The precious metal slipped 1.6% Friday and 3.4% for the week to a Friday close of $1,609.50 on the COMEX, recovering a bit from an intraday dip under $1,600. NYMEX crude futures eked out a 0.1% weekly gain, settling at $95.86 Friday. 3
S&P 500 ADVANCES FOR A SEVENTH STRAIGHT WEEK When was the last time the S&P started a year with a seven-week win streak? 1967. That achievement aside, it hasn’t had a winning streak this long in more than two years. The S&P gained 0.12% across five trading days to settle at 1,519.79 Friday, while the Dow saw its second straight weekly retreat (-0.08% to 13,981.76) and the NASDAQ (-0.06% to 3,192.03) also logged a slight weekly decline. The CBOE VIX ended the week at 12.46.3,4 THIS WEEK: U.S. financial markets are closed Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday. A new NAHB housing market index appears Tuesday, plus earnings from Herbalife, Medtronic, Express Scripts, Analog Devices, CF Industries, Dell, Marriott, and Fidelity National. January’s Producer Price Index arrives on Wednesday, along with minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting and Census Bureau reports on January housing starts and building permits; quarterly results come in from Sodastream, Devon Energy, Dish Network, BHP Billiton, Garmin, Toll Brothers, Cheesecake Factory and Tesla Motors. The NAR announces existing home sales for January on Thursday; last month’s Consumer Price Index also appears, along with the Conference Board’s latest index of leading indicators, new initial claims figures and earnings from Hewlett-Packard, Wal-Mart, Hormel, Chesapeake Energy, Safeway, AIG, Cabot Oil & Gas, Newmont Mining and Nordstrom. Friday brings quarterly results from Abercrombie & Fitch. % CHANGE
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Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 2/15/13 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 4,5,6,7
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Registered Representative and Principal, Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research Inc., broker/dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC to residents of: IN, AK, FL, IA, IL, MI, MN, MO, TN, CT, CA, NY, NJ, SC, VA and OH. Advisory Services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor to residents of: IN, AK, FL, IA, IL, MI, MN, MO, TN, CT, CA, NY, NJ, SC, VA and OH. Jehl & Kreilach Financial Management and Cambridge are not affiliated. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
Citations. 1 - www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/13/usa-economy-retail-idUSL1N0BCCZM20130213 [2/13/13] 2 - www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-15/u-s-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-rose-to-76-3-in-february.html [2/15/13] 3 - www.nasdaq.com/article/dow-closes-a-second-week-in-the-red-despite-late-rally-cm218372 [2/15/13] 4 - www.cnbc.com/id/100463705 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F15%2F08&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [2/15/13] 6 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/15/13] 7 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/15/13]