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Jehl & Kreilach Financial Management Presents:

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE October 8, 2012

WEEKLY QUOTE “Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards.” - Soren Kierkegaard

WEEKLY TIP If you’re shopping for a homeowner policy, feel free to ask for a discount. If you can demonstrate that you are taking steps to reduce risk, you may be able to negotiate one.

WEEKLY RIDDLE Strange but true: the letters in the phrase “bad credit” can be rearranged to spell something most of us probably have in our wallets or handbags. Find the anagram. Last week’s riddle: What 3 numbers can you add together and get the same result as when you multiply them together? (All 3 numbers are whole and positive and none of them are double-digit.) Last week’s answer: 1, 2 and 3. 1+2+3 = 6, 1x2x3 = 6.

JOBLESS RATE DIPS TO 7.8% In September, unemployment fell to the lowest level in 43 months. The Labor Department said that non-farm payrolls expanded by 114,000 positions, less than the 120,000 consensus estimate of analysts polled by Briefing.com but better than the five-figure gains that were common in summer. The underemployment rate remained at 14.7% last month.1,2

U.S. MANUFACTURING REBOUNDS The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index came in at 51.5 for September, a welcome change after three straight months below 50. ISM’s service sector PMI also showed expansion, improving to 55.1 in September from the 53.7 reading for August.3,4

AUTO SALES RISE, FACTORY ORDERS DROP Gas prices have climbed 14% since July 1, but fuel costs certainly haven’t impeded new car sales. According to Edmunds.com, overall U.S. auto sales were up 13% from a year ago in September. Toyota and Honda respectively posted 41.5% and 31% monthly sales increases, 34% more Volkswagens moved off new car lots, and Hyundai and Chrysler Group respectively sold 15% and 12% more vehicles last month. U.S. factory orders, on the other hand, dipped 5.2% in August according to the Census Bureau.2,5

STOCKS START THE QUARTER WITH GAINS After two weeks of retreat, the S&P 500 advanced 1.41% across the first five trading days of October to settle Friday at 1,460.93. The Dow (+1.29% to 13,610.15) and NASDAQ (+0.64% to 3,136.19) also moved north. Gold rose 0.39% for the week on the COMEX to close at $1,780.80 Friday, while crude oil slipped 2.51% to end the trading week at $89.88 a barrel.1,6 THIS WEEK: Monday is Columbus Day – the stock market will be open, but the bond market (and banks) will be closed. Alcoa and Yum! Brands kick off a new earnings season on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a new Federal Reserve Beige Book comes out along with the report on wholesale inventories for August and Q3 results from Costco. Thursday brings new initial and continuing claims figures from the Labor Department. Friday, the September PPI is released, the initial October consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan appears and Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan issue earnings reports. % CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+11.40

+23.61

-0.41

+7.67

NASDAQ

+20.38

+25.87

+3.22

+16.15

S&P 500

+16.17

+26.92

-0.86

+7.66

REAL YIELD

10/5 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

-0.82%

0.12%

2.34%

3.10%

Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov - 10/5/12 1,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

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Registered Representative and Principal, Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research Inc., broker/dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC to residents of: IN, AK, FL, IA, IL, MI, MN, MO, TN, CT, CA, NY, NJ, SC, VA and OH. Advisory Services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor to residents of: IN, AK, FL, IA, IL, MI, MN, MO, TN, CT, CA, NY, NJ, SC, VA and OH. Jehl & Kreilach Financial Management and Cambridge are not affiliated. This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations. 1 - money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=12af2bc3-ae2a-4bf7-996f-12a755ff398a [10/5/12] 2 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2012/10/01-05 [10/5/12] 3 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [10/1/12] 4 - www.ism.ws/ismreport/nonmfgrob.cfm [10/3/12] 5 - www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-10-02/chrysler-sales-rise-12-percent-in-september [10/2/12] 6 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [10/5/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F28%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/5/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F28%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/5/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F28%2F11&x=0&y=0 [10/5/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F28%2F07&x=0&y=0 [10/5/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F28%2F07&x=0&y=0 [10/5/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F28%2F07&x=0&y=0 [10/5/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F27%2F02&x=0&y=0 [10/5/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F27%2F02&x=0&y=0 [10/5/12] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F27%2F02&x=0&y=0 [10/5/12] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/5/12] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/5/12] 9 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm71002.pdf [7/10/02]


10.08.12 Weekly Economic Update