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Tomorrow’s Risk Models & Purpose Driven Leadership

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10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL

Photo: LOOP City is a master plan for the suburbs of Copenhagen by BIG

THE BIG RE-THINK: THE WORLD 2030+


THE EVOLUTION OF CONSUMPTION

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TIME LINE

Meaningful Consumption Happiness & Wellbeing

2020+ The Good Life Society & Circular Economy

Conscious Capitalism Open Dialogue & Engagement

2000+ The Network Society & Green Growth

Access & Services

Individualisation (ME)

90s-00s Knowledge Society & Sustainability

Agility & Expertise

Status

70s-80s Post-Modernism & Early Environmentalism

Automation

Materialism

50s-60s Mass Consumption & Early Urbanisation

Product is King

Social Attachment

20s-40s Keynesianism & New Deal

Specialisation

Security

1910s Militarism & Fordism (Bernays)

More Choice

Sustenance

Pre - 1900 Post-Industrialisation

Basic Products

INDIVIDUAL

SOCIETY

The Evolution of Consumption – Kjaer Global © 2013

Mobility & Diversity

CORPORATE

Human history, hasn’t just been a nice even curve of constant progress, but rather, a journey of lessons to be learned 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


RISK & OPPORTUNITIES

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Hotspring - Photo: Kjaer Global FamilyIcelandic HolidayNatural in Norway - Photo: Harald Brekke

San Francisco Museum of Modern Art - Rendering: Snøhetta

Over Consumption and Hyper Connectivity

Ethics and Transparency 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


POLL QUESTION 1

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Q: HOW WILL BUSINESS PERFORMANCE BE MEASURED BY 2020?

The focus will be on: XXX

a)Profit 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects

b)People (Social Capital) and Planet (Sustainability) a)Purpose b)By all 4: People, Planet, Purpose and then Profit

10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


NEW PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS

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The National Gallery London and GE - Photo: Harald Brekke

Only 1 in 5 brands globally are perceived as making a meaningful difference to people's lives 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


THE ‘4P’ BUSINESS MODEL

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* PEOPLE * PLANET * PURPOSE and then * PROFIT 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


POLL QUESTION 2

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Q: 1. ARE YOU A LEFT OR A RIGHT BRAIN THINKER?

a) I am a Left Brain thinker (Factual, Logical, Pragmatic) XXX

b) I am a Right Brain thinker (Intuitive, Visionary, ‘Possibilist’) 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects

c) I mostly use both Left and Right thinking

10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


MULTIDIMENSIONAL THINKING

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4. SPIRITUAL 3. EMOTIONAL

2. SOCIAL

3. EMOTIONAL RIGHT

• Facts • Logic • Pragmatist

• Intuition • Vision • Possibilist

1. SCIENTIFIC

4. SPIRITUAL

1. SCIENTIFIC

Whole Brain Thinking – Kjaer Global © 2013

2. SOCIAL

LEFT

To understand how the world is interconnected, it is essential to embrace all dimensions 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


TREND ATLAS 2030+

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QUALITY OF LIFE

UNIVERSAL VALUES Trend Atlas – Kjaer Global © 2012

4. SPIRITUAL The Good Life

Mindfulness

POSITIVE WELLBEING 3. EMOTIONAL

Active Leisure

Foodie Culture

Happiness Hunting

Enoughism

The Big Society

Empathic Leadership

MEANINGFUL EXPERIENCES

Alternative Treatments

Cultural Consumption

‘Deep’ Storytelling

Collaborative Consumption

MULTI-CHANNEL COMMUNICATION

Inclusive Design

A BETTER WORLD

The Real Thing

Intelligent Reduction

Biomimicry

Considered Consumption

Social Entrepreneurship

PATCHWORK SOCIETY

Good Cause

One Planet Living

CARING ORGANISATIONS

2. SOCIAL Cloud Intelligence

Dialogue Driven

Education 4.0

Transmedia Platforms

No Age Society

TECHNOLOGY

Global Citizens

Free-Range Parents

Redefined Families

ECONOMIC DRIVERS

Digital Natives

Female Empowerment

Creative Class

Work/Life Balance

Social Capital

Learning Communities

POLITICS & LEGISLATIONS

Brand Convenience Engagement Society

ENVIRONMENT

1. SCIENTIFIC Bio Revolution

Internet of Things

Clean Tech

New Models

Turbulent Markets

Rising Economies

Innovation Hubs

Resource Shortage

Soft Power

Health Glocalisation Challenges

Public Policies

Total Transparency

Climate Change

Crowded Planet

Urbanisation

Bio Diversity

Alternative Energies

10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


KEY SOCIETY TRENDS

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4. SPIRITUAL

* RADICAL OPENNESS * GREEN GROWTH

3. EMOTIONAL

* THE GLOBAL BRAIN * SMART LIVING * NEW MODELS

2. SOCIAL

* BETAPRENEURSHIP * SOCIAL CAPITAL

1. SCIENTIFIC

* THE GOOD LIFE 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


RADICAL OPENNESS – Total Transparency & Reputation Management

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Source: ttld.studio32.com

Globally, 65% of people said transparent and honest business practices are key to corporate reputation 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


POLL QUESTION 3

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Q: HOW MANY SUSTAINABILITY INITIATIVES DID YOU ENGAGE WITH IN 2012-2013?

a) 1-2 XXX

b) More 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects

a) None

10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


GREEN GROWTH – Crowded Planet & Resource Shortage

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Photo: Samsø Energy Academy Denmark

In 2012, the number of companies that profited from sustainability initiatives climbed from 23% to 37% 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


THE GLOBAL BRAIN – Data Deluge & Meaningful Analytics

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’Big Data’ intelligence brings huge opportunities for positive change and green growth 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


SMART LIVING – Real-time Solutions & ‘Mini-Me’

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Future bathroom - Dragonfly Media The Future Laboratory

Electrolux SmartPlate iRobot Roomba Pet Series Vacuum Cleaner

Google Glass

The Nest Learning Thermostat

Smart living is the driver of a more sustainable future, inviting business and people to collaborate 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


NEW MODELS – Circular Economy & Sharing Culture

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Source: thegreatrecovery.com 2013

The Circular Economy represents a potential material cost-savings of $340 to $380 billion annually in the EU 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


POLL QUESTION 4

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Q: WILL A ‘CIRCULAR ECONOMY’ TAKE SUSTAINABILITY TO THE NEXT LEVEL?

a) Yes, recycling, reusing and sharing is key to a sustainable future XXX

b) No, because Europe don’t have the infrastructure for this to happen 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects

a) Maybe, but we need enabling polices to make it happen

10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


BETAPRENEURSHIP – Disruptive Innovation & Global Citizens

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1985-2010 GLOBAL WORKFORCE 2.0

Source: Global Talent Rally, CIFS, 2010

Source: bteam.org

2010-2020 GLOBAL WORKFORCE 3.0

Entrepreneurship is key to autonomy, as well as the welfare state, jobs, innovation and competitiveness 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


SOCIAL CAPITAL – Shared Value & Purpose Driven

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Sense of Purpose Photograph by David McLain, National Geographic

Sense of Purpose Photograph by David McLain, National Geographic

Source: socialprogressimpoerative.com

Social capital is not just the sum of the institutions which underpin a society – it is the glue that holds them together 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


THE GOOD LIFE – Positive Psychology & Meaningful Storytelling

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Photo: The School of Life London

Photo: The School of Life London

As the definition of the ‘Good Life’ goes public, we start to question the conventional way of measuring success 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


POLL QUESTION 5

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Q: WILL GOVERNMENTS ADOPT A ‘GROSS NATIONAL WELLBEING’ INDEX BY 2030?

a) Absolutely XXX

b) Maybe 4 Corners House by Avanto Architects

c) Not at all

10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


THE ‘4P’ BUSINESS MODEL

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External Drivers

CREATIVE COLLABORATORS

GLOBAL SUSTAINERS INNOVATIVE Betapreneurship

AUTO-ANALYTICS Smart Living

DISRUPTIVE Sharing Culture

COMMUNITY Social Capital

People

Infastructure & Performance

Profit

THE

4Ps

INTERCONNECTIVITY The Global Brain

Planet Culture and Meaning

Purpose ENGAGEMENT

The Good Life Mindset Map 2013 © Kjaer Global

ANTIFRAGILE Green Growth

TRUST Radical Openness

‘GOOD LIFE’ BUILDERS

TECHNOLOGY OPTIMISERS Internal Drivers

10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


CONCLUSION

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Photo: The Treehotel in Harads North Sweden

Winners of the future will be the organisations that are agile enough to adopt the ‘4Ps’ 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL


JOIN OUR COMMUNITY – kjaer-global.com

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CONTACT ME: alk@kjaer-global.com

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My ‘TRENDS MANAGEMENT TOOLKITS’ book is published by Palgrave Macmillan Business in 2014 10_2013 | ERNST & YOUNG | THE WORLD 2030+ | © KJAER GLOBAL

E&Y Kjaer 10 13  
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