What if â€Ś
â€Ś basic human needs could be harnessed to enhance your income? Introducing the
onsumer inked ncome ortfolio
Find out: How the daily activities of human behavior could be harnessed to generate income. What those activities are and what sort of profit potential they could represent. Why those activities are typically resistant to economic disruptions or recessions. Who is more comfortable in retirement: The person with the most money, or the most money to spend?
P o r t f o l i o s
What You Knowâ€Ś
Whatâ€™s the first thing you do in the morning?
You might turn off your alarm clock, open your blinds or make your bed. But very soon, like millions of other people around the world, you typically need to use the bathroom. And so begins your relationship with consumer stocks. Whether it is toilet paper, toothpaste, cotton swabs or any of the other dozens of products contained in most bathrooms around the world, every morning consumers wake up and begin the process of consumption. Take a minute right now to think about the products you may have already used today to satisfy your basic daily needs.
Consumer Linked Income Portfolio Consumer Linked Income Portfolio (CLIP)
is comprised primarily from companies around the world that satisfy those needs. We believe there are three primary characteristics that make owning consumer staple stocks attractive: strong financial characteristics, global growth opportunities and a consistent, predictable record of growing income. This last feature is the most important factor used in our selection and screening process as it allows us to have some confidence in our belief that the amount of dividend income we receive in the future is likely to be higher than what we receive today.
You may hear a lot about this sector in falling markets, but we believe it represents a moderate risk approach to achieving superior risk adjusted returns over the long term. You may have suffered significant losses in the most recent economic turmoil and this sector was not immune either. However, as compared to the broader market as represented by the S&P 500, the consumer staples sector delivered a much less volatile journey. And along the way, dividends from many of these brand name giants continued to climb in the face of general economic woes.
A History of
that may translate into a rising retirement income for life.
The fundamental products that make up consumer staples, such as toilet paper, soft drinks, toothpaste, detergent, cigarettes, cereal and snacks are often purchased on a monthly, weekly or even daily basis and consumed daily. Because these are products that we generally can’t live without, demand is consistent and much less cyclical than in durable/discretionary product areas like automobiles, appliances, apparel and home furnishings. Although consumers may consume their supplies before repurchasing, or cut down modestly on consumption, demand is relatively stable because of the frequent use of these products. Big ticket items are generally the first thing to be put on hold in the event of an economic squeeze, but the relatively low price point of consumer staples are typically less of a target for household budget cuts. Most of these products are used globally, and as a result they are not dependent on one geographic area for success and may provide a lower volatility exposure to emerging markets.
that may translate into long-term wealth. It is likely that demand for these products will increase over time as the global population continues to grow. Add to that the expanding middle classes in many emerging markets, and you have the potential for continued success. The companies at the top of the food chain in this sector (like Proctor & Gamble, Coca-Cola and Kraft) generally hold the number one or two market share position and as a result, they tend to achieve economies of scale that make it difficult for newcomers to compete. This “moat” effect makes the long term prospect of owning these companies attractive. There is no such thing as a “sure bet”, but the chance of obsolescence is much less with this sector than, say, technology, where the case can be made that items we need today may be out of date in 5-10 years.
P o r t f o l i o s
Dividend Growth = Rising Income As illustrated in the chart below, the SPY (an exchange traded fund (ETF) representing the S&P 500 Index) and XLP (an ETF representing the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector) generated a similar dividend income at the beginning of 2003. Over the following ten years, the SPY suffered some significant dividend cuts while the XLP continued to provide growing income. Importantly, this illustration assumes that dividends were distributed, and not reinvested. This means that the dividend growth was organic and did not rely on additional deposits or reinvestment of income. A further benefit of an increasing dividend is that over time your income from that investment may grow, even if you are not reinvesting those dividends. Compare this to the outcome of investing in US Treasuries as illustrated by IEF (an ETF representing the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index). During this ten year period, the SPY grew its dividend by 90%. The XLP grew its dividend by 197%. Meanwhile, the “safer” US Treasury income plummeted by 40%. Even worse, the bond income will continue to decline as the higher yielding bonds in the ETF mature and are replaced by bonds currently yielding under 2%.
ANNUAL DIVIDEND GROWTH - DISTRIBUTED
$60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SPY XLP IEF
$18,478 $24,892 $24,346 $27,734 $30,613 $30,845 $24,687 $25,689 $29,197 $35,174 $18,160 $18,059 $22,427 $25,986 $30,356 $33,151 $36,835 $38,672 $44,869 $54,020 $37,398 $36,894 $37,738 $40,507 $43,362 $42,447 $40,753 $35,236 $31,272 $22,330 FIGURE 1: Source - Morningstar as of 12/31/2012
The chart above reflects the annual dividends from the SPY, XLP and IEF, exchange traded funds that closely track the S&P 500 index, S&P500 Consumer Staples Index and the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index, respectively. In this illustration, the dividends were “paid out” to show the effect of spending the available income. The illustration does not reflect the deduction of management fees, taxes or transactional cost and is presented for informational purposes only and not as a recommendation.
Lower Volatility = Less Worry No one can predict what will happen to the stock market, or commodity prices or gold or the direction of interest rates. People who retired in the year 2000 had no idea that they were about to embark on a 13 year journey where, from point to point, they gained nothing on the value of their investments. But as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow and new babies will be brought into the world, it is reasonable to assume that people will continue to consume the staples that are manufactured, sold and distributed by the companies that comprise our CLIP portfolio. To be sure, there is no way to guarantee that the CLIP portfolio will be able to avoid a drop in dividends in the future or a decline in principal value. Our screening process is designed to eliminate companies that show weakness in their ability to grow their dividend. We continue to believe that owning companies with strong balance sheets, brand loyalty and recurring sales are the types of companies that will benefit our investors.
Would you rather have money...
or money to spend?
No one likes to see the value of their investments decline, ourselves included. But really, the important question is how much money is available to spend versus how much money you have. A happy byproduct of rising dividends happened to be a less volatile journey on the road to wealth.
PRINCIPAL VALUE WITHOUT REINVESTMENT - 1/2003 TO 12/2012 $2,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FIGURE 3: Source - Morningstar as of 12/31/2012
The chart above reflects the principal value of the SPY, XLP and IEF, exchange traded funds that closely track the S&P 500 index, S&P500 Consumer Staples Index and the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index, respectively. In this illustration, the dividends were distributed. The illustration does not reflect the deduction of management fees, taxes or transactional cost and is presented for informational purposes only and not as a recommendation.
P o r t f o l i o s
Our Message is Simple
If you think cash is king, “ wait until you meet cash flow.”
Speak with your advisor about your long term income needs. Each person has their own unique needs and your advisor is in the best position to help you determine how our portfolios can help you meet those needs. We can run historical, hypothetical “what if” scenarios using our software to assist you in this process.
As I grow older
I’m counting on
Learn why strategies for growing your money have to change when you’re about to start spending it. What you’ve read or learned about asset allocation, diversification and rates of return are all important. But when you start to take income or distributions from your portfolio you have to change the way you think as well as how you invest. If you find yourself in a situation where you have to liquidate principal to meet your income needs, you’ve stepped onto the slippery slope that can result in the consumption of your capital over time.
Relax with the understanding that it’s not about how much money you have. It’s all about how much you can spend. The markets will do what the markets will do. You can build your retirement on the hope that your total return will be greater than your income needs. Or you can build your plan on the rising income that is likely to continue to come from the companies that meet the daily needs of a growing global population.
The Consumer Linked Income Portfolio could help you achieve your goals.
my income to grow with me. MEASURED RISK
P o r t f o l i o s
CONSUMER LINKED INCOME PORTFOLIO DISCLOSURE STATEMENT Kingsroad Financial Insurance Services, Inc. (KFIS) is a Registered Investment Advisor and Program Manager (PM) of Measured Risk Portfolios and the Consumer Linked Income Portfolio (CLIP). Information regarding this investment program including investment management fees, as well as important information regarding KFIS, its services, compensation, and conflicts of interest is contained in its Form ADV, Part II or substitute disclosure document, available from KFIS upon request. Some Investment Advisor Representatives of KFIS are also Registered Representatives of Independent Financial Group, LLC, (IFG, LLC) member FINRA/SIPC. KFIS and IFG, LLC are not affiliated. Strategies related to CLIP: KFIS employs various strategies to achieve the primary objective of rising income over time. The principal method to achieve this objective is a concentration of investments in the consumer staples sector of the US stock market. Although the portfolio is diversified over different companies, the concentration in consumer staples may not achieve our objective over time and no assurance can be made that dividends will rise year over year. Although it is not a primary strategy, options may also be used to achieve our objectives. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies of this document may be obtained from KFIS, from any exchange on which options are traded or by contacting The Options Clearing Corporation, One North Wacker Dr., Suite 500, Chicago, IL 60606 (1-888-678-4667). The program is not limited to any asset class and the PM retains discretionary trading authority on all accounts. In no event will the PM engage in “naked” option trading, which is the most speculative form of trading. Custody of Client Accounts: All accounts are currently held at TD Ameritrade. KFIS does not maintain custody of client accounts and is only authorized to place trades and bill for management fees. Limitations of Past Performance; Possibility of Losses: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prospective clients should not assume that future performance will be profitable. Participation in this program carries the potential for profit as well as the probability of loss, especially over shorter time periods. Other Fees and Expenses; Impact of Taxes: The investment management fee paid to KFIS is separate and distinct from the internal fees and expenses charged by mutual funds and ETFs to their shareholders. These fees and expenses are described in each fund’s prospectus, and will generally include a management fee, internal investment, custodial, and other expenses, and a possible distribution fee. Prospective clients should consider all of these fees and charges when deciding whether to invest in the program. Performance results for this program do not reflect the impact of taxes. Gains or losses may be short-term in nature; consequently, this program may not be suitable for clients seeking tax efficiency. Comparisons to Indices: The S&P 500 Composite Index (the “S&P 500 Index”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the broader stock market, and includes the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The historical performance results of the S&P 500 Index do not reflect the deduction of transaction or custodial charges, nor the deduction of an investment management fee, which would decrease historical performance results. Investors cannot invest directly in the S&P 500 Index. Performance of the S&P 500 Index is provided solely for comparison purposes and does not imply that the program seeks to match or outperform the index over time. Other Considerations: The PM reserves the right to accept smaller accounts. Because accounts are managed separately, smaller accounts may utilize fewer positions to limit the effect of transaction charges.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Minimum Investment: Maximum Annual Fee:
$100.000 2% billed in advance
Summary While there is no way to predict the direction of the market, we can, with strong conviction, predict that more consumer staples will be consumed next year than this. It is simple biology. And as a result, we anticipate the companies who fill that need may earn more money next year as well.
A Focus on Rising Income
As you near retirement, it becomes less important how much money you have and more important how much money you have to spend.
Consumer Linked Income Portfolio by
5405 Morehouse Drive Suite 230 San Diego, CA 92121 866.540.5464 mrpfolios.com