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The 33rd Annual Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Tracking Responses to the Ongoing Economic and Demographic Transformations Dr. Stephen Klineberg The Basic Presentation, April 2014


The Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (1982-2014) More than three decades of systematic interviews with representative samples of Harris County residents, focused on three central issues:

The New Economy The Demographic Revolution Quality of Place

2


Percent increase in before-tax income

Two contrasting economic eras

110%

116% 111%

114%

100%

99% 86%

The 30 years after World War II were a period of broad-based prosperity.

63% 50% 43%

The past 30 years have been marked by growing income inequalities. -10%

-3%

2%

Bottom 20%

Second 20%

5%

15%

Middle 20%

Fourth 20%

Top 20%

Top 5%

The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979) The past 30 years (1980-2011)

3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements. Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth And The Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy


Positive evaluations of job opportunities in the Houston area (1982-2014) 100

Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”

90 80

71%

66% 68%

70

58%

60 50

43%

58%

42%

48%

40 30

41%

36%

35% 25%

20 10

60%

11%

0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

4

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy


The official unemployment rates in Harris County (1982-2014) 11.0 10.5 10.0

9.8

10.1

9.5

8.6

9.0 8.5 8.0

7.8

7.5

6.8

7.0 6.5

6.5

7.3 6.8

6.0 5.5

5.7

5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5

4.0

4.3

3.0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

5

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy


Assessments of personal financial situations (1982-2014) 80

Will be “better off” financially three or four years down the road.

70

60

59

66

65

62

58

57 57 56

51

49

50

45 42

41

38

37

40

20

10

34

33

31

30

55

54

28

27

Personal financial situation has been “getting better” in the last few years.

23

27

26

21

0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

6

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy


The biggest problem facing people in the Houston area today (2012-2014) 2013

2012

16 32

15

31 37

2014

21

29

37 26

22

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2012-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

15

20

The New Economy


The prevalence of food insecurity (2014) “At any time in the past year, did you have a problem paying for the groceries to feed your household? Has that been a very serious problem for you, somewhat serious, not much of a problem, or not a problem during the past year?”

12

6

16 67 "Not a problem" "Not much of a problem" "Somewhat serious problem" "A very serious problem"

8

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy


80 70

Views of government efforts to reduce the inequalities in America (2010-2014) 2010

2012

2014

67

64 60

60 50

62

45 41

40 30

59

39

30

20 10

0 "Most people who receive welfare benefits are really in need of help."

9

Favor: "Federal health insurance to cover the medical costs of all Americans."

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2010-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

"Government should take action to reduce income differences between rich and poor in America."

The New Economy


Support for raising the minimum wage (2014) “Some people say the minimum wage should be raised to help low-income workers get by. Others say raising the minimum wage will lead to fewer jobs. Given these arguments, do you strongly favor, slightly favor, slightly oppose, or strongly oppose raising the minimum wage?”

1

28 48

23

Strongly in favor Slightly in favor Strongly/Slightly opposed Don't Know

10

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy


The importance of post-secondary education, in the total sample and by ethnicity (2013) 100

"For a person to be successful in today's world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school, or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma?"

90 80

73

71

70

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

81

78

63

60 50

36

40

30

27

25 20

20

17

10 0 Total sample

Anglos (N=331)

Blacks (N=220)

Hispanics (N=360)

Asians (N=36)

An education beyond high school is necessary There are many ways to succeed with no more than high school 11

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2013) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy


Attitudes toward various proposals to improve the public schools (Education Survey, 2012) Paying for universal preschool to ensure that all low-income children are ready for kindergarten.

70 27

Paying for after-school academic programs for public school students.

66 33

Increasing amount of time that U.S. students spend in school each year.

63 35

Establishing more public charter schools in your community.

Strongly/Somewhat favor Strongly/Somewhat oppose

12

63 31 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Education Survey (2012) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

90

100


The Demographic Revolution


The number of documented U.S. immigrants, by decade (1820-2010) 12

From 1492 to 1965, 82% of all immigrants coming to America came from Europe.

10

8

After reform in 1965, 88% of all the new immigrants have been non-Europeans.

Millions of immigrants

10.5

8.8

1965

6

“Hart-Celler Act”

4

2

1924

0.1

“National Origins Quota Act”

0.5

0 1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

14

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Office of Immigration Statistics. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution


Major U.S. immigrant cities (2010)

Boston San Francisco

Chicago

New York City Washington D.C.

Los Angeles

San Diego

Dallas

Atlanta

Miami

Houston

15

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution


The demographic changes in Harris and Fort Bend counties (1990-2010) Harris County

4.5

2010 2000

4.0 3.5 3.0

Asians/Others

7.7%

600,000

6.7%

1990

500,000

400,000

32.9%

2.0

300,000

19.1% 1.5

18.2%

18.4% 200,000

1.0

54.0%

42.1%

2000

40.8%

33.0%

POPULATION

POPULATION, IN MILLIONS

19.0%

Anglos

4.1%

22.7%

1990

23.7%

13.1%

6.5%

21.1%

19.5%

19.6%

21.1%

20.3% 100,000

53.8%

46.2%

225,421

354,452

36.2%

0

0.0 2,818,199

16

2010

Latinos Blacks

2.5

0.5

Fort Bend County

700,000

3,400,578

4,092,459

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

585,375

The Demographic Revolution


Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 17

1980

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution


Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 18

1990

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution


Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 19

2000

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution


Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 20

2010

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution


Comparisons between Harris and Fort Bend counties in levels of education (2014) 100% 10.5 18.9

90% 80%

16.2

70% 60%

26.0

37.7 Respondents aged 25 years and older

50% 40%

25.4 30%

Post-graduate 23.1

College degree

20% 10%

Some college 22.1

0% Harris Co. (N=898)

21

14.6

HS diploma

5.7

Less than HS

Fort Bend Co. (N=449)

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution


Comparisons between Harris and Fort Bend counties in political party preferences (2014) 100% 90%

14.9 21.7

80% 70% 42.4 60%

36.9 Independent/Other/Don't know

50%

Republican Democrat

40% 30% 20%

41.4

42.6

Harris Co. (N=1048)

Fort Bend Co. (N=508)

10% 0%

22

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution


Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in Harris County in 2012 Non-Hispanic Whites 79

78

76

75

75

All others

72

71

69 61

59

50 50 41

29 21

23

22

24

25

25

28

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2008-2012 ACS 5-year estimates Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

54

46 39

31

The Demographic Revolution


Assessments of ethnic relations in the Houston area, by ethnicity (1992-2014) 65 60

Percent rating "the relations among ethnic groups in the Houston area" as either "excellent" or "good."

59 51

50

PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS

43 35

39

35 34

37

38

33

33

10

11

35

27

25

15

44

41 40

20

48

49

40

30

53 48

Anglos Latinos Blacks

45

27 21 14

10 5 0 92

24

53

54

55

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (1992-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

04

05

06

07

08

09

12

13

14

The Demographic Revolution


The changing attitudes toward immigrants (2010-2014) 110 100

Undocumented immigrants are not a "very serious" problem.

Favor: "Granting illegal immigrants a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record."

90

High ratings (6-10) on a scale measuring feelings about undocumented immigrants.

Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the economy than they take.

83 80

75 71

70

75

74

66

63

59

60 51

49

50 40

45

45

2014

2010

35 31

30

20 10 0 2010

25

2012

2014

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2010-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

2014

2010

2012

2012

2014

The Demographic Revolution


Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2050 Non-Hispanic Whites 64

All others 64

62

61

59

58

57

56

56

54 50 50

36

26

38

39

41

42

43

44

46

53 47 44 36

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2012 National Population Projections, Alternative Net International Migration Series (Constant Series). Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution


Air and water quality Urban centers

Quality of Place Hiking, boating, birding


Positive evaluations of the Houston area as a place to live (2001-2014) 100 90

"How would you rate the Houston area in general as a place to live?" Fair/Poor

80

Excellent/Good

78

77

76

71

71

70

77

70 60 50 40 30

29

29

28

23

23

22

22

20 10

0

2001

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

“Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the country, would you say that the Houston area is a much better place, a slightly better place, a slightly worse place, or a much worse place in which to live?" 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Much/Slightly Worse

17

8 2007

9 2009

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2001-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

90

89

86

85

78

2005

28

Much/Slightly Better

7 2011

6 2013

Quality of Place


Percent attending arts performances, in the total sample and by ethnicity (Arts Survey, 2012) 100 90

“During the past 12 months, did you attend any live performances in the arts, either professional or amateur, such as drama, dance, music or any other type of concert or performance?” Yes

80

No

70 61

58

60 50

60

56

54 46

44

42

39

40

40

30 20 10 0 Total Sample 29

Anglos

Blacks

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Arts Survey (2012) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Latinos

Asians

Quality of Place


Houston’s urban sprawl

Baltimore 0.6 million 81 sq. mi.

2.1 million 600 sq. mi.

Chicago 2.7 million 228 sq. mi.

Detroit 0.7 million 139 sq. mi.

Philadelphia 1.5 million 134 sq. mi.

30

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place


The nine-county Houston metropolitan area

New Jersey 8.8 million 8,729 sq. mi.

5.8 million 9,434 sq. mi.

Massachusetts 6.6 million 10,550 sq. mi. 31

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place


The divided preference for car-centered vs. transit-oriented developments (2009-2014) 70 58

60 52 50

50

47

50 51

47

50 51 49

51

51

47

47

47 44

46

39

40

30

20

10

0 A single-family residential area

An area with a mix A single-family of developments home with need to drive everywhere

2009, 2011, 2013

32

A smaller, more urbanized home within walking distance

2010, 2012, 2014

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2009-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Spending more to expand existing highways

Spending more to improve rail and buses

2010, 2012, 2014

Quality of Place


Some preliminary differences between Houston and Copenhagen (2014) Houston Area Survey (2014)

Copenhagen Area Survey (2014)

100 88

90 77

80

69

70 60

84

64

61

60 54

50 40

40

31 30 20

6

10

5

0 Rating job opportunities as either "good" or "excellent".

33

"People who work Rating the urban Percent who did not Agree: "Most people Agree: "Religion is hard and live by the area as a "good" or use public transit at can be trusted." very important in rules are not getting "excellent" place in all in the past year. my life." a fair break these which to live. days."

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2014), Kinder Institute Copenhagen Area Survey (2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place


Support for gay rights (1991-2014) 70

Favor: "Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children." 60

Agree: "Marriages between homosexuals should be given the same legal status as heterosexual marriages."

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS

50

47 40 37

37

30

38

43 33

38

32

31

35

28

27

47

45 43

42

40

27 20

17

10 91

34

51

49

93

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (1991-2014) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

Quality of Place


Support for alternative sentencing for criminal and drug offenses (2010-2014)

Support for alternatives to the death penalty for persons convicted of firstdegree murder.

2010

54 65

2012 69

Agree that “Individuals in possession of small amounts of illegal drugs should be fined rather than sent to jail.”

2014

65 69 72

57

Favor: “Making marijuana legally available for medical purposes.”

65

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 35

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2010-2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

90


Attitudes toward the term limits imposed on City of Houston elected officials (1997-2014) “Are you generally in favor or opposed to continuing the term limits placed on the Mayor and other elected city officials in Houston?” 100 90

If in favor: “Do you think the term limits should stay as they are, with office holders limited to three 2-year terms, or would it be better to have a limit of two 4-year terms?” Have a limit of two 4-year terms

Stay with three 2-year terms

80

PERCENT IN FAVOR OF TERM LIMITS

74 70 60

63

38%

73

49% 41%

50

37%

40

59%

30

55%

57%

49%

20 10 0 1997

36

70

2003

Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (1997-2014) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

2008

2014

Quality of Place


Today’s pro-growth agenda The Houston region needs to nurture a far more educated workforce and develop the research

The New Economy

centers that will fuel the new economy.

Houston needs to develop into a truly successful multiethnic society, one with equality of opportunity for all communities, all encouraged to participate

The Demographic Revolution

as full partners in shaping the region’s future.

The greater Houston metropolitan region needs to grow into a much more appealing urban destination, while accommodating an expected 3.5 million additional residents in the next 20 years.

Quality of Place


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/InstituteForUrbanResearch @RiceKinderInst

Houston Area Survey 2014 Presentation  
Houston Area Survey 2014 Presentation  
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