Issuu on Google+ - Angola Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012 Published: June 2012

No. of Pages: 84

Price: US $ 1175

With several new projects added or coming onstream in the next few years, such as Pazflor (220,000b/d) and PSVM (150,000b/d), we see Angolan oil output rising substantially in the coming decade. Attempts to cut gas flaring also boost the outlook for gas production. Nevertheless, OPEC quotas, the risk of project delays and the Angolan political environment still imply a significant amount of uncertainty. Main trends and developments we highlight for Angola’s oil and gas sector are as follows:  BMI expects oil production to increase from approximately 2.21mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 2.51mn b/d in 2021, as ambitious new projects that have recently come onstream, such as Pazflor (220,000b/d), or that are scheduled to come onstream in the coming years, such as PSVM (150,000b/d), boost the country’s upstream oil outlook.  Consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average rate of 9.90% from 2011 to 2021. This very high growth is boosted by the country’s double-digit GDP growth, as the economy enjoys a catching up phenomenon following nearly three decades of civil war. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 88,000b/d in 2011 to hit 226,000b/d by 2021.  BMI forecasts that gas production will increase from 0.74bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 7.23bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start monetising associated gas resources. Gas production is to be boosted further by new projects with considerable associated gas production, such as Pazflor (1.5bcm) and PSVM (2.5bcm).  as demand is set to rise at an average rate of 2.23% although this hides a more irregular pace. Relatively low demand growth when compared to growth in gas production and oil consumption can be explained by the fact that gas plays virtually no role in the country’s electricity generation and that there are no plans to expand its share in the energy mix. As a result, we see gas consumption rising from 0.74bcm in 2011 to 0.93bcm by 2021.  Non-subsalt Angolan oil reserves are likely to reach a peak in the coming decade, although they are set to increase at first thanks to exploration potential; not only in the well known Lower Congo and Kwanza basin, but also in the southern Namibe basin. There is a substantial upside risk to our forecasts in the form of the subsalt acreages that were put on offer in 2011. However, with still limited information on the commercial viability and speed at which these resources could be monetised, we have decided not to include them in our forecast until more information is made available. Oil reserves are forecast to peak at about 10bn barrels (bbl) in 2014-2016 before coming down to 8.8bn bbl by 2021, whereas gas reserves are expected to rise above 320bcm in 2012 and to remain above that threshold through to 2020. �In terms of infrastructure, the authorities have ambitious plans in LNG and refining. The Angola LNG project appears to be on target to meet the 2012 completion deadline. However, the 65,000b/d Luanda refinery is still struggling and has low utilisation rates. The 200,000b/d SonaRef project is stalling but we still expect it to come onstream in the next 10 years, albeit with some delays. As for the 200,000b/d Soyo plant, it is still in early stages and we deem it unlikely to be completed before 2021. Angola’s dependence on energy prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our

assumptions of tight supply due to booming demand in emerging markets is clearly an opportunity for the country. As a result, we assume OPEC basket oil prices to increase from US$107.52 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$111.47/bbl in 2012, thus creating an upside risk for the Angolan macroeconomic outlook.

Angola Oil and Gas Industry BMI Industry View 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Angola Oil and Gas SWOT 7 Global Energy Market Outlook . 8 Regional Energy Market Outlook 15 Angola Energy Market Overview 19 Industry Forecast Scenario . 23 Oil And Gas Reserves 25 Oil Supply And Demand 26 Gas Supply And Demand 27 Export Revenues 28 Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 28 Oil And Gas Infrastructure 29 Oil Refineries 29 LNG Terminals 30 Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings . 33 Angola Upstream Rating – Overview 37 Angola Upstream Rating – Rewards . 37 Angola Upstream Rating – Risks . 37 Angola Downstream Rating – Overview 38 Angola Downstream Rating – Rewards . 38 Angola Downstream Rating – Risks 38 Competitive Landscape . 39 Overview/State Role 41 Licensing And Regulation 41 Government Policy . 42 Licensing Rounds 43 International Energy Relations 45 Company Monitor . 47 Sociedade Nacional de Combustíveis de Angola (Sonangol) 47 Chevron 50 Esso Exploration Angola 52 BP Angola 55 Angola Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4 Total Exploration Angola 57 Eni Angola Production 60 Statoil – Summary 63 Sinopec – Summary . 63 Petrobras – Summary 63 Marathon Oil – Summary 64 Cobalt International Energy – Summary . 64 Repsol YPF – Summary 66 Others – Summary 66 Africa – Regional Appendix 68 LNG Net Exports Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 74 LNG Net Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 74 Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 75 Glossary Of Terms 76

Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 78 Ratings Overview 78 Indicators 79 BMI Methodology . 82 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 82 Energy Industry . 82 Cross checks . 83 - Angola Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012