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The Stillman Exchange The Official Business Publication of Seton Hall University

Made possible by the generous support of the O’Brien Family


China’s Economic Overhaul Encounter Multiply Barriers

By Justin Yan: Just in the last month, National Statistical Bureau, the China’s main statistical economic data provider, released its third quarter China’s Gross Domestic Product with a 7.8 percent growth rate compare with same period a year earlier, up from 7.5 percent in the previous three months. China’s economy seems to be back on its track to hit 7.5 percent annual growth rate target set by the Chinese central government. This regaining economic momentum is not only heartening to the Chinese reformist but also cheering to the global investors and exporters. The US security market hit a historical peak since the 2008 global financial crisis with Google’s share price passing the one thousand dollars threshold despite the political confrontation of the debt ceiling in Capitol Hill. Everything looks just perfect for the global economy nevertheless the essence of the question that remains is does the world’s largest emerging market really as healthy or sustainable as the official reported. It is speculated that the Chinese Government has used to artificially set the economic data to make the economy growth appear more sustainable and less volatile as possible. Even according to some senior officials themselves, the central policy makers looked to more reliable numbers like bank loans, ports cargos, or electronic consumption to estimate the actual growth rate instead of being blinded by man-made data. One concern of economists and policy makers would be whether the growth rate data is actually reliable. According to Bloomberg’s estimate, China’s real growth rate was significantly weaker than the official revealed in the first half of 2013 and the economy picked up slightly in the third quarter only due to the new round of central bank’s stimulus which was set to inject money easier into the market. However, this new stimulus capital inevitably entered the highly bubbled volatile real estate market due to the fact of unbalanced economic structure and

inefficient investment environment. Another concern of China’s slowing economy is the level of local government debts. According to Fitch Ratings, an US bonds rating firm, China’s local government debt totals 4.1 trillion USD or 42 percent of the gross domestic product. This means that for each dollar of GDP only generated 42 cents, not even paying off the full dollar. This is nearly half of the total that has to be used to pay off existing debt, which excludes highly leveraged local government’s future tremendous amount of borrowing plans. Regarding to debt issues, the Development Research Center, a government think tank also one of the vital economic advisory institutions for China’s central cabinet, has proposed to use a greater amount of municipal bonds to replace the current local government financing vehicles. Since the municipal bonds have an expected transparency nature that require the disclosure of risk of default and third party ratings across wide range of investors, economist believe it will restrain unreasonable local government infrastructure projects and impose hard budget discipline. The World Bank stated last month, “The China’s local debt issue has become an imminent constraint to its social and economic growth given the complexity and opacity of municipal financing solutions (particularly local government financing vehicles.)” However some economists hold a skeptical view of this new solution by pointing out that dramatic raising of municipal bonds would only feed the local government’s enormous borrowing appetite, which further deteriorates the debt situation instead of mitigating the local government’s current situation. Historically speaking, different from other former communist countries leaders like those in USSR or Eastern European, China’s reformists prefer a gradually incremental reform instead of rapid structural modifications. In this case, China’s finance officials pledged that “China will gradually

establish a scientific and standardized local government financing mechanism based mainly on municipal bonds.” However, as a matter of fact, things have already gone wild and unexpected, according to an independent anonymous auditor, China’s local government debt has nearly doubled between 2011 and 2012, which inevitably raises the caution on this round of the local government debt overhaul. The uniqueness of China’s economy is that it is strongly bounded with political direction. The good news is that China’s new leadership seems to express more determination and willingness to take a significant step in the plan of economic system overhauls. Just in this month, the paramount leaders of CPC will hold the third plenum of 18th central committee, which according to the estimate of some political experts, may come out with dramatic or rigorous economic reform plans charged with historical significance. The third plenum in 1978 witnessed the reform and started the opening up policy which led to China’s more than three decades economic take off and set the path to market economy. The third plenum in 1993 established the foundation of stateowned enterprises reconstruction and rescued the shrinking state enterprises. This year several specific economic overhaul plans have been leaked out before the actual meeting including increasing the power of market, private, and foreign capital in banking and financial industry, lifting restrictions on land ownership and regulating in local government land trading activities. Additionally, urban residency and population planning or control policies may also been significantly modified. Nevertheless those reform policies will unavoidably cut against the interests of various entities. Take the banking and financial industry for instance, Continue on page 2...

What to Do with China’s Excessive Foreign Exchange Reserves By Baidong Feng: Foreign exchange reserves are assets held by central banks and monetary authorities in various foreign reserve currencies, mainly U.S. dollars, Japanese yen, British pounds and Euros, to back its liabilities. In China, the central bank and monetary authority is People’s Bank of China, or simply, PBC. By September 30, 2013, foreign exchange reserves of China totaled $3.66 trillion (Please refer to Figure 1) U.S. dollars. The specific composition of China’s foreign exchange reserve is unclear due to poor documentation and limited information released by PBC, but it’s widely recognized that around 65 percent are invested in U.S. treasury bills and agency bonds, making China the biggest creditor of the world’s largest economy. The enormous amount of USD denominated foreign reserves came from the trade surplus with United States and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in China more than ten years. “Foreign exchange is not a sign of strength in many cases, particularly in the case of the Chinese, it’s a sign of weakness,” Terry Keeley, senior managing principal of Sovereign Trends LLC, mentioned on Bloomberg Television’s “InsiderTrack.” China may not be earning much profit by investing in U.S. government debt because the interest rate is low. Since December 2008, Federal Reserve initiated its first round quantitative easing (QE) policy to inject more money to the market, hence lowering the interest rate to spur the economy after the financial tsunami. The increased supply will depreciate U.S. dollars and of course shrink the real buying power of USD denominated foreign exchange reserves of China. Furthermore, credit rating agencies including S&P and Moody’s, downgraded the credit rating of U.S. government from AAA to AA+ in 2011. On October 1, 2013, the federal government was shut down and had the risk of defaulting public debt. It seems risk-free treasury bills are not risk free any more. What could China do with risky massive reserves? First of all, converting a portion of financial assets to non-financial assets or making foreign direct investment (FDI) should be the first option. Continue on page 2...

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China’s Economic Overhaul Encounter Multiply Barriers ...Continued from page 1 state owned commercial banks will find that they have to pay more competitive interest rate to depositors, investing and wealth management industries will see the entering of more private equity and foreign mutual or hedge funds. More substantially, local government may have to spend more on social security and public welfare due to the easing of residential restriction, even given the fact that the new fundraising systems may not be enough to compensate it. It becomes increasing difficult and complicated to balance the interest of local and central government. The new premier Li Keqiang is fascinated with urbanization due to the strong believe that by driving more Chinese into middle or small cities, private consumptions and social economic development can be tremendously boomed. However the issue is that the high urban unemploy-

ment rate and inflation rate will ultimately jeopardize people’s purchasing power and motivation of migrant to urban places. More seriously, there is wide acknowledgement that allowing 250 million migrant workers share the same benefits with urban residents will add more competition to urban public resources like education and social security which already become extremely rare and limited in most of big metropolitan areas. It has never been easy and smooth to make any substantial progress in China’s economic reform. However in the inaugural year of China’s new leadership, China’s economic overhaul encountered unprecedented barriers from structural and political sides including slowing economic growth, a rapid aging population, mounting local government debt and increasing public concerns over various issues like urban pollution, corruption, and expropriation of rural land.

This is because the investing and manufacturing oriented economy, which heavily relying on huge base of low waged labors, is reaching the end of its course. According to Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging market equity team at Morgan Stanley, If China will not be able to overcome those problems, it may walk into the path of Japan in 1970s and Germany in 1980s where global exporting shares hit the peak of 12 percent and were then followed by a stagnant GDP growth, which is the least thing anyone would want to see. Perhaps we can expect the third plenum in this month will be able to lay out a more thorough and comprehensive reform blueprint and herald another historical transition like the one in 1978, which unleashed market economic reform.

The Stillman Exchange Special Edition The Official Business Publication of Seton Hall University

Editorial Board Managing Editor Justin Jiaju Yan Kristine Mamanta Sheena Shah Assistant Managing Editors Meng Yang Aiden Yuhao Wang Special Edition Contacts Meng Yang Yuhao Wang Faculty Advisors Jason Yin, Ph.D. Micheal Reuter, M.B.A. E-mail Website About The Stillman Exchange is the first undergraduate-published business newspaper in the United States.It’s Special Edition is the nation’s first colledge bilingual business newspaper publihed both in the US at Seton Hall University and in China at the University of International Business and Economics.

firms to go abroad. First, China’s state-owned firms tend to invest more abroad in natural resources. Rapid economic development in China has exhausted its oil and commodities. Investment in natural resources could reduce the supply risks. Second, China doesn’t have that many multinationals like United States does. In order to set foot in the global market, Chinese firms need to catch up with other MNCs by purchasing technology, brands and other assets to give them a shortcut to foreign markets. “An American Open Door? Maximizing the Benefits of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment” stated by economists Daniel Rosen and Thilo Hanemann of Rhodium Group, Chinese FDI is doubling its size every year and increasing exponentially. “We estimate that Chinese firms will place some $1 trillion to $2 trillion in direct investments around the world over the coming decade,” said the authors(also please refer to Figure 2) . In 2009, as a result of the financial tsunami, FDI declined for a short time. From Figure 3, we can see that, by 2009, Chinese portfolio holdings in U.S. government debt was $1.5 trillion, whereas it’s direct investment in U.S. at that time was only $2.3 billion, as it’s shown in the following graph. Investments in corporate debts and equities are very low. That’s exactly what China is facing now, huge low yield government bonds and low profitable investments. China’s Investment in the U.S. from

Chemical Weapons Watchdog Wins Nobel Peace Prize

By Zhe Zhang and Meng Yang The global chemical weapons watchdog charged with overseeing destruction of Syria's chemical weapons stockpile during a civil war won the 2013 Nobel Peace Prize. The OPCW was established in 1997 to enforce the Chemical Weapons Convention, which is the first international treaty to announce that the entire class of weapons is illegal. Based in Hague, Netherlands, when the U.N. called upon its expertise to help investigate alleged chemical weapons attacks in Syria, it has largely worked out of the limelight until Contact Justin Yan at this year. The OPCW's campaign in Syria was set out in a U.S.-Russian agreement following the chemical attack near Damascus on Auguat 21. The U.S. announced that in the attack, more than 1,400 people were killed. At the time, U.N. weapons inspectors 2003 to 2010 is primarily in Greenfield were already in the Syrian capital preparing to invesProjects and Acquisitions, as shown in tigate claims of earlier attacks. Figure 4, there were around 230 Chemical weapons, including mustard gas, were Chinese investments, almost evenly first widely used in World War I, leading to 90,000 split between green projects and acqui- deaths and more than 1 million casualties. Lethal sitions. After 2007, mergers and acqui- chemicals were also in the Nazi program of racial sitions tend to increase more in both extermination in World War II. During the Cold War, number and value. In 2010, there were although the U.S. and Soviet Union maintained large 25 Greenfield projects and 34 acquisistockpiles, they were never used. tions, together valued more than $5.3 The 1925 Geneva Protocol outlawed the use of billion. these weapons but not their possession. That was China’s investment in U.S. is substituted by the 1997 Chemical Weapons increasing more than double annually Convention, which requires signatories to destroy and it has invested in more than 35 of their chemical stockpiles. A few countries, including U.S. states and created more than Syria, did not agree to sign the Convention, until the 10,000 jobs. The market will remain U.S.-Russian agreement was reached last month. tremendous in the next decade. The OPCW reports that it has seen the elimination Second, China is supposed to of 82%, or 58,172 tons of the world's declared stockexpand domestic consumptions as a piles of chemicals weapons as for now. Furthermore, main driver for its future economy it has supervised the destruction of nearly 4.97 mildevelopment. Rebalancing its economy lion munitions and containers. can’t reduce the foreign exchange It would take another decade for them to finish reserves in its hand, but it can destroying their chemical armaments, citing the dancan fundamentally solve this problem gers of the disposal process and the concerns of local from a long term view. Export oriented communities that the work to be done safely, U.S. economy will make foreign exchange officials said. Nobel committee chairman noted that reserves like a snow ball, it will only some countries violated the agreement to destroy get bigger, but a domestic demand ori- their chemical weapons before the deadline of April ented economy won’t increase the base 2012, especially for the U.S. and Russia. of foreign exchange reserves any more. Chemical weapons are used for war, to satisfy What is lying ahead of both individ- some people's interests and desires, and bring human uals and corporations is full of opportu- endless pain and disaster. Soldiers and civilians are nities and challenges. What should we suffering most. It is a common sense that war is terrido now to prepare ourselves? How to ble, and war using chemical weapons is especially seize the opportunity when it comes? cruel. We can't impose our pain to others. We should Those critical questions regarding to make chemical a technology which truly benefit how to scientifically utilize foreign mankind, rather than a means of self-serving. exchange reserves will still remained The hazard of chemical weapons is huge, and it is uncertain in a foreseeable future. too dangerous to control. Since toxic substances are Contact Baidong Feng at difficult to degrade and will leave sequela to people, such as nerve agent, muscle atrophies, inability to control their own behavior and so on. In short, chemical weapons can cause great harm to human beings and their property, and there is no doubt that it should be banned. In addition, it produced a considerable pollution to the environment, and we should strengthen the understanding of chemical and biological weapons and take proper measures. In short, less chemical weapons, safer the world. After all, no one wants to be attacked by chemical weapons. Therefore, we hope that we can keep the world without the chemical armaments, just like the Nobel Prize advocates us, since it is a huge threat to world security. However, there is an unfinished mission, that is, how to destroy chemical weapons without negative influence. The process is very costly and who will pay for it? That is a question we should concern. Thankfully, there are many countries expressed a willingness to provide personnel and financial support for the inspection and destruction of Syria's chemical weapons. In this case, it seems that in the international efforts of all parties, destruction of chemical weapons is feasible before the mid-2014. Contact Zhang Zhe at

Foreign Exchange Reserves of China and Opportunities it will bring .That what China just started to do but which will probably be the most important way to spend the money is to encourage Chinese companies to invest overseas. PBC can cooperate with commercial banks to provide loans to companies to fund their investment. "In recent years, the central bank and The State Administration of Foreign Exchange have been creating new ways of using foreign exchange reserves to support the real economy and serve for the "venturing abroad" strategy," SAFE said in a statement on its website. “After conducting this cofinancing work, we have provided favorable financing environment and conditions for Chinese financial institutions and other FX market players to expand their economic and trade activities," it added. There are numerous motives for



The Stillman Exchange The Official Business Publication of Seton Hall University 西 东 大 学 商 学 院 官 方 出 版

2013年11月26日 星期二 第12期

Made possible by the generous support of the O’Brien Family

中 国 经 济 改 革 遭 遇 多 重 阻 碍 如何处理中国过 度 的外汇 储备 记者 冯百冻

记者 闫家驹 就在上个月份,作为中国最 为主要的经济统计数据提供机 构的国家统计局公布了第三季 度中国国内生产总值同比上年 同期增长了百分之7.8,相对于 同年前一季度的百分之7.5有所 回升。中国的经济似乎重新回 到了实现由中共中央领导层所 制定的年增长率百分之7.5的轨 道上。这种经济的复苏趋势不 仅仅令中国的改革者们为之大 振,同时也鼓舞了全球的投资 者与出口商,美国股市达到了 自2008年金融危机以来的历史 最高点,谷歌公司的股票价格 更是突破了一千美元的大关经 管有在华盛顿国会山所发生的 围绕债务最高限额的政治交锋 。对于全球经济,一切似乎都 接近完美,然而核心的问题是 作为世界上最大新兴经济体的 中国真的是像官方所公布的那 样健康可持续吗? 中国政府有着人为设定经济 统计数据以让经济发展看上去 更为可持续并其极少波动的历 史传统。甚至据一些高级政府 官员披露中央政策制定者们更 为依据可靠地经济数字比如银 行贷款总额、港口货物总量、 或者电子消费总额来预测实际 的经济增长速度而不会被人为 制造的数据所迷惑。所以对于 许多中国的经济学家和政策制 定者而言,一个重要的关心就 是中国经济增长数据到底是否 可靠。根据彭博财经一些经济 学家的预测中国经济在2013年

上半年的增长幅度要远远低于 官方所公布的数据并且第三季 度的小幅回升也仅仅是因为央 行新一轮旨在向市场注入更多 资本的量化宽另外一项导致中 国经济下滑的因素是地方政府 的债务状况,根据美国债券评 估机构Fitch Ratings一些非官 方的统计预测,中国地方政府 的总债务高达4.1万亿美元或者 占国内生产总值的百分之42, 也就是说每一美元的GDP中42美 分接近其中的一半要用来偿付 现有债务,这还不包括严重负 债的地方政府的未来巨额借款 计划。面对地方政府的债务问 题,一些政府的经济智囊同时 也是例如作为中国中央政府重 要经济咨询团队之一的中国发 展研究中心提出更大幅度的推 广应用市政债券来替代现有的 地方政府筹资方式,期望债券 的透明化特征例如要求向多方 投资人披露违约风险和强制第 三方评估能够在一定程度上限 制地方政府的非合理性基础设 施建设项目,同时施加严格的 预算原则。 “基于中国现有的市政融资 解决方案(特指中国所谓的地 方政府融资渠道)的复杂性和 非透明性,中国地方政府的债 务问题已经成为限制其社会经 济增长的迫在眉睫的制约因素 。”世界银行上个月提及了此 项问题。但是一些经济学家对 这项新的解决方案持严重怀疑 的态度,指出较大幅度的提升 发行市政债券的水平只会满足 地方政府巨大的借债胃口,这

只能加重已有的债务问题而不 是缓解地方政府的当前处境。 从历史上来看,不同于前共产 主义国家例如前苏联或者前东 欧的领导者,中国的改革派更 倾向于缓近的改革方式而不是 剧烈的制度性变更。就解决债 务问题而言,中国的财政官员 宣称:“中国将会逐步的建立 主要以市政债券为主要途径的 、科学的、标准的地方政府融 资机制。”然而实际情况是事 情的发展早已出乎了人们的预 料,根据一位匿名的独立财政 审计员披露,中国的地方政府 债务总额在2011到2012之间接 近翻番,而这不可避免的将会 产生对 轮地方政府债务改革的 谨慎性保守态度。 中国经济的一点独特之处在 于其是与政治的风向紧密相连 的。当前的利好信息是中国新 一届领导中心似乎已经表达在 经济系统改革方面采取更大措 施的决心和意愿。就在本月, 中国共产党的最高领导层将会 组织召开中共中央委员会十八 届三中全会,此次会议据一些 政治学家所言,将会提出更为 彻底和有力的并可能产生历史 性影响的经济改革方案。无独 有偶,历史上1978年中共十三 届三中全会见证了开启中国三 十年经济腾飞与走向市场经济 道路的改革开放政策,1993年 的十四届三中全会建立了国有 大中型企业改革重组的基础并 且挽救了常年停滞的国有企业 详见第二版

外汇储备是一个国家央行或者货币当局以外 币形式持有的资产,包括美元,日元,英镑, 欧元等。中国的央行是中国人民银行。截至013 年9月30日,中国的外汇储备总额为3.66万亿美 金。由于中国人民银行公布的信息有限,中国 的外汇储备具体组成不详。不过,广泛认可的 是,65%的中国外汇储备投资在美国国库债券与 代理机构债券,这让中国成为世界最大经济体 的最大债主。 巨额的美元资产外汇来自于中美贸易顺差和 最近十多年在中国的直接投资的增加。 Sovereign Trends LLC 的Senior Managing Principal 在 Bloomberg Television 的 InsiderTrack财经节目上讲到: “外汇储备在很 多情况下不是强大的象征,特别是中国,外汇 储备是脆弱的象征。” 由于利率很低,中国也没有从美国政府债券 的投资中赚取多少利润。自从2008年12月起, 美联储开始首轮货币量化宽松政策(QE)期望 增加美元的供应以降低利率达到刺激经济的目 的。美元供应的增加会导致美元相对贬值,中 国的美元外汇储备资产也会贬值。另外,在 2011年,评级机构标准普尔和穆迪将美国联邦 政府的评级从AAA降为AA+。 2013年10月1日,联 邦政府关闭也导致联邦债务违约的风险。本来 中国购买美国政府债券的原因就是因为风险低 ,但现在看来,风险并不低。 那么,中国到底可以用手中的巨额的高风险 的外汇储备做些什么呢? 首先, 把用非金融资产或者国外直接投资替 换金融资产应该成为首选方案。这也正是中国 外什么鼓励中国的公司进行海外投资的原因。 中国人民银行可以与商业银行合作为该类企业 提供融资支持。 央行外汇管理局在其网站上写道:“近些年 来,外汇管理局已经构建了新的渠道用以支持 海外风险投资战略,通过实施此项举措,提供 给中国金融机构以及外国市场参与者更为有利 的融资环境。” 公司有多种方式进行海外投资。 首先,央企倾向于进行海外自然资源投资。 中国经济的快速增长已经消耗的大量的时候和 矿产。海外能源类投资能够缓解未来的能源供 应不足的问题。 其二,比起美国,中国的跨国企业数量不足 。为了进一步打开国际市场,中国企业也应该 进一步采取走出去的战略,购买技术,品牌和 其他资产来弥补自身的不做。 经济学家Daniel Rose和Thilo Hanemann指 出中国直接对外投资正在以成倍的速度增长, 并讲到: “我们估计中国企业会在未来的10年 中投资1到2万亿美金进行外汇直接投资。”在 2009年,由于受到金融海啸的冲击,投资数额 由短期下跌。 图三中,我们可以看出,中国持有的美国的 直接投资23亿美金,正如下图所示。投资在公 司债和股票是非常低的。这正是中国现在面临 的问题,投资在低收益的国债和低回报的项目 2003年到2010年期间,中国在美国的投资项目 主要集中绿地项目和收购,正如图4所示,共计 230个投资项目,几乎平均分在了绿地项目和并 购。2005年,联想以17.5亿美金收购了IBM 详见第二版

The Stillman Exchange


中 国 经 济 改 革 遭 遇 多 重 阻 碍 本年有关于经济改革的一些方案在实际会议召开前 就应经被透露出来,包括提升金融银行业,市场、 外国和私有资本的影响力,放宽对于农村土地所有 权的制度限制以及进一步规范地方政府的土地交易 行为,更多的是城市户籍制度和人口计划生育控制 政策都有可能有大幅度的修改。然而这些改革政策 不可避免的会触及不同利益集团的利益。就以银行 金融业为例,国有大型商业银行将会发现他们不得 不向存款人支付更为可观的利息、同时投资与资产 管理行业将会有更多私募股权以及海外对冲或共同 基金的加入,更为重要的是面对户籍制度的进一步 放开,中国地方政府可能会不得不支付更多的社会 保障和公共福利,尽管新的资金融通系统可能并不 足以支持这些新的开支。平衡中央和地方政府的利 益将会变得越来越复杂与困难。新一任总理李克强 更为钟情于大规模的城镇化并坚信通过驱使更多的 中国人进入中小城市可以较大程度上促进个人消费 和社会经济发展。然而存在的问题是较高的城镇失 业率与通货膨胀率将最终影响人们的购买力和迁移 城市的动力。更为严重的是,现存的一个广泛共识 是允许2.5亿农民工享受和城市居民同等的社会福 利将会产生对公共资源的更多竞争,例如早已在多

数中国大都市圈成为极端稀缺资源的教育和社会保 障。 任何中国经济改革的实质性进展从来都不是一 帆风顺的,然而在中国新一届领导层的执政首年, 中国的经济改革就面临着全所未有的制度性和政治 性障碍,包括放缓的经济增长、迅速老龄化的人口 、巨额的地方政府债务和对于像城市污染、贪污腐 败和农村土地份的非合理征用等问题不断增长的公 众关注。根本上的原因是长期严重依赖廉价劳动力 的以投资和制造为导向的经济发展模式已经走到了 其尽头。按照美国摩根斯坦利新兴经济体首席分析 师Ruchir Sharma的说法,如果中国不能从根本上 克服这些问题,那么其很有可能重蹈1970年代的日 本和1980年代的德国的覆辙,前两者都在其所占全 球出口比重达到百分之12之后,面临严重的经济社 会发展停滞。而这种情况也是我们最不想看到的。 或许我们可以期待本月的18届3中全会能够提出更 为彻底和全面的改革蓝图并能预示着有一场像1978 年市场经济体制改革那样的历史性转型。 联系 闫家驹

如何 处理 中国过 度的 外汇储 备 的个人电脑业务,创造了中国对 外的直接投资首次单笔超过5亿 美金。2007年之后,收购兼并的 数量和金额都有所增加。 2010 年,对外投资项目中,天然气投 资25项,收购项目达到34个,总 金额超过53亿美金。中国投资在 美国每年以成倍速度增长并且投 资已经覆盖了超过35个州,创造 了超过1万个工作岗位。在未来

The Stillman Exchange 美国西东大学斯德尔曼商学院 官方商业报纸 编辑组 总编辑 闫家驹 克里斯蒂娜 曼娜塔 施里娜 时娜 副总编 杨萌 王雨豪 特刊联系人 杨萌 王雨豪 指导教师 尹尊声教授, Ph.D. 迈克尔罗伯特,MBA. 电子邮箱 网址 / 关于 The Stillman Exchange是美国第一 份完全由在校大学生出版的商务报纸 。同时也是斯德尔曼商学院的商业周 刊,其中国特刊更是全美第一份高校 多语种商业季刊,同时刊发在美国西 东大学和中国对外经济贸易大学。

10年,这个市场会继续增大。 第二,中国应该扩大国内消费作 为其未来经济发展的主要推动力 。经济再平衡不能减少已有的外 汇储备,但从长远来看,它可以 从根本上解决这个问题。出口型 导向的经济将使外汇储备像雪花 球,它只会变得更大,但以国内需 求为导向的经济并不会增加外汇 储备。

在我们的前方,不论的个人 还是公司,都是充满了机遇和挑 战。 我们需要如何让自己准备 好以随时接受挑战? 当机会来 临的时候如何能够抓得住呢?在 未来,如何科学地利用外汇储备 仍然是一个遗留问题。

联系 冯百栋

2013年11月26日 星期二 第12期

国际化学武器监管组织获得 2013年 诺贝尔和平奖

记者 张哲 杨萌 挪威诺贝尔奖评审委员会周五宣布, 将2013年诺贝尔和平奖颁给禁止化学武器 组织(Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, 简 称OPCW),以表彰其“为消除化学武器所 做的广泛努力”。 禁止化学武器组织(Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons——OPCW)是在1997年5月23日举 行的禁止化学武器组织缔约国大会第一届 会议上成立的。意在实现《禁止化学武器 公约》的宗旨和目标,确保公约的各项规 定、包括对该公约遵守情况进行核查,并 为各缔约国提供一个进行协商和合作的平 台。 禁止化学武器组织在叙利亚的活动是 在履行美俄8月21日所达成的一项协议, 就在这之后据美国媒体报道,一场在大马 士革附近的化学攻击导致1400多人死亡。 当时,联合国武器核查人员已经在叙利亚 首都准备调查,先前的袭击使用了包括芥 子气在内的多项化学武器 ,这种化学武器 第一次被广泛应用于第一次世界大战,共 导致90000人丧生,100万多人伤亡。在第 二次世界大战期间,该种致命化学物质也 被纳粹用于执行种族灭绝计划。在冷战期 间,尽管美国和苏联拥有大规模化学武器 ,但是并没用使用它们。 1925年日内瓦公约禁止使用这些武器 但却不禁止拥有。而1997年的取代化学武 器公约则要求签署国摧毁他们的化学库存 。直到美国俄上个月达成了协议, 包括叙 利亚在内的一些国家才同意签署该公约。 禁止化学武器组织说其已经监督销毁了世 界上82%的库存化学武器,合计58172吨。 同时还监督销毁了近497万弹药和容器。 美国官员表示,其将采取另一个十年计划 来销毁他们的化学武器,而这都需要在危 险处置流程和社区利益的条件下安全地完 成。诺贝尔奖委员会主席亚格兰表示一些 国家并没有在截止日期2012年4月前, 销 毁他们的化学武器, 尤其是美国和俄罗斯 化学武器大多都用于战争,满足某些 人的私心和欲望,带给人类无穷的痛苦和 灾难。深受其害的大多是士兵和平民。众 所周知,战争是可怕的,使用化学武器的 战争尤其残忍。不能把我们的痛苦强加给 别人。让化学真正成为造福人类的一项技 术,而不是一种谋私利的手段。 化学武器危害巨大,使用后很难控制,并 且有毒物质很难降解,会对人们留下后遗 症,比如说神经性毒剂,肌肉萎缩,无法 控制自己的行为等等。总之,化学武器对 人类及其财产造成极大危害,理应全面禁 止。除此之外,它对环境构成相当大的污 染,我们应该加大对化学武器和生物武器 的认识,并采取有效措施。我们也希望让 世界远离化学武器, 就像诺贝尔奖提倡的 那样,因为化学武器对世界安全造成巨大 威胁。 但是,目前未完成的问题是,如何能 够在不带来负面影响的情况下消除化学武 器。这个过程耗资巨大,由谁来负担这个 费用?值得庆幸是的,目前已有多个国家 表示愿意为叙利亚化学武器的核查销毁工 作提供人员和资金上的支持,在这种情况 下,在国际各方的努力下,2014年中期前 销毁叙利亚化学武器是切实可行的。 联系 张哲

Stillman Exchange Special Chinese Edition November 26th 2013  

Special edition of stillman exchange is one of the bilingual business publication in Seton Hall University which published and distributed b...

Stillman Exchange Special Chinese Edition November 26th 2013  

Special edition of stillman exchange is one of the bilingual business publication in Seton Hall University which published and distributed b...