2011 Home Listing Report (HLR) Cdn Media Talking Points and Q & A POINTS OF DIFFERENCE ABOUT THE CANADIAN VS. U.S. MARKETS:
Unlike U.S., Canadians generally cannot deduct their mortgage payments from their income tax There are currently only a few Canadian government incentives / initiatives in place to support housing (the federal government has successfully focused on strict financial / mortgage regulation) The recent federal election (May 2/11) returned the Conservatives to power. Real Estate was not even on the radar during the election campaign, so housing has not been in the Cdn media lately. The pace of sales activity has slowed from earlier „hot‟ market to move to a „balanced‟ market in most areas. More than 2/3 of Canadian markets were balanced in April. However, prices are at record or near-record levels in virtually every major market, with the exception of Windsor. CREA‟s national average price for homes sold in April 2011 was $372,544, up 8% from year-ago levels. Higher end home sales in Greater Vancouver and Toronto had their best April ever. CREA predicts further appreciation, but at more modest levels this year (4%) and next year (0.9%). Inventory is easing somewhat, but still remains relatively tight, keeping pressure on prices. Inventory stood at 6 months at the end of April on a national basis, up from 5.7 months in the previous month. After three modest interest rate hikes in the latter half of last year, the Bank of Canada has held interest rates for the last six consecutive rate announcements. Rates are still at near-historic lows. An increase in Canadian consumer confidence in April reflects improving sentiment about households‟ budgets, job growth prospects, and making major purchases, such as a home. This is the first time in 10 consecutive months that Canadians have felt positive about making large purchases such as a house.
OVERALL HLR & INDUSTRY NOTES:
The Home Listing Report (HLR) serves as a “snapshot” of local real estate markets across the country. It provides the average listing prices for four-bedroom, two-bathroom homes in more than 2,300 North American markets that appeared on coldwellbanker.com between September 2010 and March 2011.
The 2011 Coldwell Banker HLR has nearly 10 times more North American markets included than the report from last year, and nearly triple the amount of Canadian markets.
The Coldwell Banker HLR includes a look at more than 2,300 U.S. markets and 70 Canadian markets in the report. Canadian markets included in the report had a minimum of 5 properties with four- bedrooms and twobathrooms listed on coldwellbanker.com during September 2010 through March 2011. U.S. markets had a minimum of 10 listings.
The Coldwell Banker HLR is intended to provide a rolling “snapshot” of average home listing prices across North America for a four-bedroom, two-bathroom property. It should be used as a guide, NOT a definitive listing price source – nor is it intended to serve as a market‟s overall average listing or sold price.
The HLR is not reflective of the CREA national home price average. The HLR evaluated four-bedroom, twobathroom homes listed on the Coldwell Banker website between September 2010 and March 2011. CREA home pricing statistics reflect all types of properties sold on the MLS. Furthermore, CREA‟s averages are based on final sale price, not list price.
The average list price to sale price percentage varies from market to market, depending on a number of factors such as inventory levels. Listing prices are indicative of what‟s happening in a market. A well priced home utilizes past home sales in the area and current homes on the market. When a home is priced correctly, the list price to sale price ratio is often 93-95%.
The 2011 Coldwell Banker HLR should NOT be compared with previous years‟ Coldwell Banker Home Price Comparison Index (HPCI) as this is an entirely new report with different criteria and a distinct methodology for collecting data.
The full report, complete with market rankings and an automated formula to find out comparable prices for your home in other U.S. and Canadian markets, is available on http://hlr.coldwellbanker.com. Users can also view currently available home listings and neighbourhood information at our Canadian web site www.coldwellbanker.ca and our brand‟s flagship web site at www.coldwellbanker.com.
Consumers who would like to get a better sense of many of the local areas referenced in the Coldwell Banker SM HLR can review local market videos on Coldwell Banker On Location : http://www.youtube.com/coldwellbanker.
The HLR includes all housing types listed on coldwellbanker.com during the time this report was conducted.
The Coldwell Banker HLR revealed that there is a $2.4 million difference between North America‟s most expensive and most affordable housing markets. Newport Beach, Calif., led the list of most expensive real estate markets in America for the second consecutive year, with an average home price of $2,537,126. America‟s most affordable housing market was Niagara Falls, N.Y., with an average price of $60,820.
In Canada, pricing is based on listings with Coldwell Banker affiliates only. In the U.S. the Coldwell Banker HLR accounts for residential listings that appear on coldwellbanker.com, including properties listed with other Realogy brands, Century 21 and ERA.
(CANADA NOTES) NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, home prices for Canada message points are in Canadian Dollars.
The west coast continues to post some of the country‟s highest prices. Vancouver, B.C. again earned top spot as Canada‟s most expensive city, showing $1.55 million CDN for the four-bedroom, two-bath subject home. Kelowna, BC at $1.1 million was the only other Canadian market to surpass Also in western Canada, Alberta‟s strong economy and an abundance of Oil Sands jobs continues to fuel housing prices, with „boom town‟ Fort McMurray leading the province with a price of $652,382.
Ontario saw one of the largest price disparities. Oakville, one of Canada‟s most affluent communities, located west of Toronto, earned top spot for the province with $624,914, while just a few hundred miles away, Windsor was Canada‟s most affordable market at $144,460. Windsor, located across the border from Detroit, Michigan, has been impacted by the auto industry, and is now promoting its great value housing to the retirement market.
The most affordable market in North America is Niagara Falls, N.Y., which has an average home listing price of approximately $61,000 USD. Interestingly, in Niagara Falls, Ontario, ($272,769 CDN) subject homes were listed at more than four times that price.
Canadians thinking of buying property in the United States will be pleased to find a large number of markets where homeownership is at very affordable levels. There are 1,545 markets with average listing prices less than $300,000 USD for a four-bedroom, two-bathroom home. These markets include many „sunshine state‟ destinations typically sought after by Canadian “snowbirds”.
EXPLORATORY QUESTIONS Q1. How is this year’s report different from last year’s? A1. The 2011 Coldwell Banker Home Listing Report (HLR) includes data on more than 2,300 North American markets, including 70 Canadian markets, nearly triple the amount in last year‟s report. Serving as a “snapshot” of local real estate markets across the country, the HLR provides the average home listing price for four-bedroom, two-bathroom properties that appeared on coldwellbanker.com between February and August 2010 from more than 2,300 select U.S. markets and more than 65 Canadian markets. Canadian markets had a minimum of 5 properties with four- bedrooms and two-bathrooms listed on coldwellbanker.com during this timeframe. U.S. markets had a minimum of 10 listings.
Q2. Is the threshold of 5 listings in Canada sufficient to be accurate? A2. Coldwell Banker and its third-party research advisors feel that this is the appropriate threshold for statistical relevance. Many Canadian markets in the report had significantly more properties than the minimum. Q3. Why is Coldwell Banker releasing this report? A3. There continues to be great interest in real estate prices, including markets that are either most expensive or most affordable. Given the significant number of listings available on coldwellbanker.com, the company recognized that a method for capturing and analyzing this data from a pricing perspective would be interesting and valuable to current homeowners and potential homebuyers. This year, we‟ve expanded the HLR to include more than 2,300 North American markets, including 70 Canadian markets. The HLR pulls information directly from www.coldwellbanker.com, thus ensuring the process and resulting data are as consistent and current as possible. Q4. Why does this year’s HLR provide information on so many more markets than last year’s report? A4. Location is crucial in the real estate business. Coldwell Banker wanted this year‟s HLR to resonate in as many markets as possible, so this year‟s report includes nearly 10 times the amount of markets as last year‟s HLR, and nearly triple the amount of Canadian markets. Q6. The numbers seem drastically higher / lower from last year’s HLR. What does that mean for the real estate market? A6. The HLR is a rolling snapshot of conditions in many markets across the country for a six-month period of time. For more insight into a specific market, contact a trusted local real estate professional.
Q7. Is this listing average representative of four bedroom homes for sale in these markets, or just those listed by a Coldwell Banker affiliated company? A7. The Coldwell Banker Home Listing Report looks at four-bedroom, two-bathroom residential listings in select markets across the country and in Canada. In Canada, the average was based on listings from Coldwell Banker affiliates. In the U.S., the study includes properties listed by other Realogy sister brands, Century 21 and ERA. While it is not a definitive listing price source for four-bedroom, two-bathroom homes across the country, it can be used as a helpful guide in more than 2,300 select markets. Q8. There seems no end to BC’s climbing prices. Is there an end in sight? A8. Unfortunately, I don‟t have a crystal ball to see into the future, but the Coldwell Banker HLR provides a snapshot of more than 2,300 U.S. and 70 Canadian markets. It‟s an excellent resource on where the market is today across North America. Q9. The HLR shows Toronto, long known as one of Canada’s most expensive markets, falling well below Oakville, Cambridge, and other Ontario markets. How do you account for this discrepancy? Q9. The Toronto price is based on actual listings on the Coldwell Banker web sites. It is a 'snapshot' study of what was listed for sale during the six-month study period. In the case of Toronto, the price reflects high density type of housing, such as townhomes, etc. In the case of Oakville, the 4-bedroom listings in that market are more typically detached homes on large lots in premium locations. The study just goes to show that there are many different housing options available for buyers seeking a 4bedroom home in major markets.
Q10. Why is there such a dramatic disparity in prices for Niagara Falls, NY vs. Niagara Falls, Ontario? Prices on the Canadian side are more than four times as much as the U.S. side.
A10. The dramatic pricing difference between Niagara Falls NY, and its Canadian counterpart, Niagara Falls, Ontario, is a classic example of that old real estate axiom â€œLocation, Location, Location.â€? Both of the waterfalls - the American and the Horseshoe falls - can best be seen from the Canadian side of the Niagara river. For over a hundred years, the Canadian side has capitalized on its magnificent view to become one of the major tourist attractions of the world, bringing in revenue from millions of visitors yearly. Meanwhile, Niagara Falls NY focused its growth on industrial development that utilized the power generated by the falling water. With the relocation of power generation to Lewiston, NY several years ago, the factories closed. The city went into decline for some years (Jim: it lost 10% of its population between 2000 and 2010). Recently, however, the NY side has begun to refocus to capitalize on tourism revenue as well, with some very promising results.
Home Listing Report Explained