Page 1

National Economic Indicators


National Economic Indicators CONTENTS Page

GDP

Table: Real Gross Domestic Product ............................3 Real Gross Domestic Product.........................................4

Households Retail Sales ....................................................................5 Personal Income and Expenditures ................................6 Personal Saving ............................................................7 Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks ...........................8 Single-Family Home Sales ....................................... 9, 10 Residential Single-Family Building Permits ...................11 Private Single-Family Housing Starts............................12

Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment ..........................13 Real Investment in Equipment and Software ................14 Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures ...............15 Real Private Construction Put in Place .........................16

Trade Balance of International Trade ......................................17

Manufacturing Industrial Production Index, Manufacturing ...................18 Capacity Utilization Rate, Manufacturing ......................19 ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index ...............................20 Table: ISM Business Survey Indexes ..........................21 Manufacturers' New Orders ..........................................22 Core Capital Goods ......................................................23 Inventory/Sales Ratios ..................................................24

Labor Market

Page

Nonfarm Payroll Employment ................................. 25, 26 Civilian Unemployment Rate ........................................ 27 Civilian Labor Force ..................................................... 28 Aggregate Weekly Hours Index .................................... 29 Average Hourly Earnings ............................................. 30 Employment Cost Indexes ........................................... 31 Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business.......................... 32 Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business ............................. 33

Inflation Table: Gauges of Inflation ........................................... 34 Expenditure Price Indexes ..................................... 35, 36 Consumer Price Indexes .............................................. 37 Producer Price Indexes ................................................ 38 Commodity Price Indexes ............................................ 39 Crude Oil Prices ..................................................... 40, 41 TIPS Inflation Compensation ........................................ 42

Monetary Policy Monetary Policy Instruments ........................................ 43 Real Federal Funds Rate ............................................. 44 Expected Federal Funds Rate ...................................... 45 Federal Reserve System Assets .................................. 46 Monetary Base ............................................................. 47 M2 ................................................................................ 48

Financial Markets Money Market Rates .................................................... 49 Capital Market Rates .................................................... 50 Treasury Yield Curve ................................................... 51 Risk Premium ............................................................... 52 Exchange Rate ............................................................ 53


Real Gross Domestic Product 2009

2008 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:

Gross Domestic Product

1.5

-2.7

-5.4

-6.4

-0.7

0.1

-3.5

-3.1

0.6

-0.9

1.4 14.5 -5.0

-6.1 -0.1 -9.4

-19.5 -7.2 -25.9

-39.2 -43.6 -36.4

-9.6 -17.3 -4.9

Residential Fixed Investment

-15.8

-15.9

-23.2

-38.2

-23.3

Exports of Goods & Services Imports of Goods & Services

12.1 -5.0

-3.6 -2.2

-19.5 -16.7

-29.9 -36.4

-4.1 -14.7

3.6

4.8

1.2

-2.6

6.7

0.3

-2.7

-4.9

-6.4

-0.9

Personal Consumption Expenditures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Structures Equipment & Software

Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers

LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:

Change in Private Inventories Net Exports of Goods & Services

-37.1

-29.7

-37.4

-113.9 -160.2

-476.0 -479.2 -470.9

-386.5 -330.4

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

3


Real Gross Domestic Product 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7

Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7

Q2 -0.7%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

4


Retail Sales 10

Year over Year % Change

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

Aug. -5.3%

-6 -8 -10 -12 2003

-4 -6

Month over Month % Change Jun Jul Aug Total 0.9 -0.2 2.7 x Gasoline 0.4 -0.1 2.4

2004

2005

-8 -10

2006

2007

2008

2009

-12 2010

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

5


Personal Income & Expenditures 6

Year over Year % Change

6 Month over Month % Change

5 Income Expenditures

4

Jun -1.7 0.2

Jul 0.1 0.2

5

Aug -0.2 0.9

4

3

3

2

2

1

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real Personal Income

1

0

0 Aug.

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

-3

-4 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-4 2010

Notes: December 2004 real personal income figure excludes the Microsoft dividend.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

6


Personal Saving Rate 7

Percent of disposable personal income

7

6

6

5

5

4

4 Aug. 3.0%

3

3

2

2

1

1

0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0 2010

Notes: December 2004 personal saving rate excludes Microsoft dividend.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

7


Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks 22

Millions of Vehicles

22 20

20 18

Autos and Light Trucks

Average Annual Auto & Light Truck Sales Rate: 1999 through 2005

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

Light Trucks Sep. 9.2 mil.

10 8

8 Autos

6

6 4 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

4 2011

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

8


Existing Single-Family Home Sales 6.5

Millions of Homes

6.5

6.0

6.0

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

Aug. 4.5 mil.

4.5

4.0

4.0 Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 1990 through 1999

3.5 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

3.5 2010

Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics

9


New Single-Family Home Sales 1.4

Millions of Homes

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.7

Average Annual New Home Sales: 1990 through 1999

0.7

0.6

0.6 Aug. 0.43 mil.

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0.2 2010

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

10


Residential Single-Family Building Permits 2.0

Millions of Permits

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2 Average Annual Building Permits: 1990 through 1999

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

Aug. 0.46 mil.

0.4 0.2 2003

0.6 0.4

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0.2 2010

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

11


Private Single-Family Housing Starts 2.0

Millions of Starts

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

Average Annual Housing Starts: 1990 through 1999

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6 Aug. 0.48 mil.

0.4 0.2 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0.4

0.2 2010

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

12


Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment 20

% Change from previous quarter at annual rate

20

15

15

10

10

5

Q2 -9.6%

0 -5

5 0 -5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35

-35

-40

-40 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

13


Real Investment in Equipment & Software 20

% Change from previous quarter at annual rate

20

15

15

10

10

5

Q2 -4.9%

0 -5

5 0 -5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35

-35

-40

-40 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

14


Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures 30

% Change from previous quarter at annual rate

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

Q2 -17.3%

0 -5

5 0 -5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35

-35

-40

-40

-45

-45 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

15


Real Private Nonresidential Construction Put In Place 380

Billions of 2005$, deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in structures

380

360

360 Aug.

340

340

320

320

300

300

280

280 Twelve-Month Moving Average

260

240 2003

260

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

240 2010

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

16


Balance of International Trade -20

Current $, Billions

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30 July -$32.0 bil.

-35 Twelve-Month Moving Average

-40

-35 -40

-45

-45

-50

-50

-55

-55

-60

-60

-65

-65

-70 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-70 2010

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

17


Industrial Production Index: Manufacturing 115

2002 = 100

115

110

110

105

105

100

100 Aug. 96.3

95

90 2003

95

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

90 2010

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

18


Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing 82

Percent

82

80

80

78

78

76

76

74

74

72

72

70

70

68

Aug. 66.6%

66 64 2003

68 66

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

64 2010

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

19


ISM: Purchasing Managers Index 65

Diffusion Index, %

65

60

60

55

Sep. 52.6

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

35

35

30 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

30 2010

Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics

20


ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:

NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS:

Aug.

Sep.

Aug.

Sep.

Purchasing Managers Index

52.9

52.6

NonManufacturing Index 48.4

50.9

Production

61.9

55.7

Business Activity

51.3

55.1

New Orders

64.9

60.8

New Orders

49.9

54.2

Employment

46.4

46.2

Employment

43.5

44.3

Supplier Deliveries

57.1

58.0

Supplier Deliveries

49.0

50.0

Inventories

34.4

42.5

Inventories

43.0

47.5

Prices

65.0

63.5

Prices

63.1

48.8

Backlog of Orders

52.5

53.5

Backlog of Orders

41.0

51.5

New Export Orders

55.5

55.0

New Export Orders

54.0

48.5

Imports

49.5

52.0

Imports

49.0

51.5

DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity.

Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics

21


Manufacturers’ New Orders 480

Current $, Billions

480

460

460

440

440

420

420

400

400

380

380 Aug.

360

Twelve-Month Moving Average

360

340

340

320

320

300 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

300 2010

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

22


Core Capital Goods 70

Current $, Billions

70 New Orders

65

65

60

60 Shipments

55

55 Aug.

50

50

45 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

45 2010

Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

23


Business Inventory – Sales Ratio 1.70

Percent

1.70

1.65

1.65 Retailers

1.60

1.60

1.55

1.55

1.50

1.50

1.45

1.45 July

1.40 1.35

1.40 1.35

Total Business

1.30

1.30

1.25

1.25

1.20

1.20 Manufacturers

1.15 1.10 2003

2004

2005

1.15 2006

2007

2008

2009

1.10 2010

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

24


Nonfarm Payroll Employment 139

Millions of persons

139

138

138

137

137

136

136

135

135

134

134

133

133

132

132 Sep. 130.947 mil.

131 130 129 2003

131 130

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

129 2011

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

25


Nonfarm Payroll Employment 300

Quarterly average of monthly changes, Thousands of persons

300

200

200

100

100 Q3 Avg.

0

0

-100

-100

-200

-200

-300

-300

-400

-400

-500 -600 -700

Monthly Change Sep -263 Aug -201 Jul -304 Jun -463 May -303

-500 -600 -700 -800

-800 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

26


Civilian Unemployment Rate 10.5

Percent

10.5 10.0

10.0 Sep. 9.8%

9.5

9.5

9.0

9.0

8.5

8.5 FOMC Forecast

8.0

8.0

7.5

7.5

7.0

7.0

6.5

6.5

6.0

6.0

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

4.0 2012

Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the June 23-24 meeting.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

27


Civilian Labor Force Ratios 67

Percent of Population

67 Labor Force

66

66

65

65 64

64 Employed

63

63 Sep.

62

62

61

61

60

60

59

59

58 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

58 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

28


Aggregate Weekly Hours Index 110

Index, 2002 = 100

110

108

108

106

106

104

104 Quarterly Average

102

102

100

100 Sep.

98

98 96 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

96 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

29


Average Hourly Earnings 5.0

Year over Year % Change

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0 Sep. 2.5%

2.5

Monthly % Change Sep 0.1 Aug 0.4 Jul 0.3 Jun 0.1

2.0 1.5 1.0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2011

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

30


Employment Cost Index 8

Year over Year % Change

8 Q2 2009 YoY % Change

Benefits Cost

7

Total Comp. 1.8% Benefits Cost 1.8% Wages & Salaries 1.8%

7

6

6

5

5

4

Total Compensation

4 3

3 Wages and Salaries

2 1 2003

Q2

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2 1 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

31


Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business 6.0

Year over Year % Change

6.0 Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Q2 09 -6.6 % Q1 09 -0.3 % Q4 08 -0.8 % Q3 08 -0.1 %

5.0 4.0 3.0

5.0 4.0 3.0

Post-War Average Q2 1.9%

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

0.0

-1.0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-1.0 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

32


Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business 5.0

Year over Year % Change

5.0

Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Q2 09 -5.9 % Q1 09 -5.0 % Q4 08 2.0 % Q3 08 4.6 %

4.0 3.0

4.0 3.0

2.0

2.0 Alternate Series

1.0

1.0

0.0

Q2 -0.1%

-1.0

-1.2%

-2.0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0.0

-1.0 -2.0 2010

Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

33


Gauges of Inflation Expenditure Price Indexes

[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:

July Personal Consumption Expenditures................................................0.5 Core (excludes Food* and Energy)...............................................1.2

Consumer Price Indexes

Aug. 4.2 1.1

[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:

July All Items.............................................................................................0.1 Core (excludes Food and Energy) ................................................1.1 Producer Price Indexes

Aug. 5.5 0.8

YoY % -1.5 1.4

[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:

July Finished Goods ............................................................................... -9.9 Core (excludes Food and Energy) .............................................. -1.4 Core Intermediate Goods ..................................................................2.8 Crude Goods ................................................................................. -42.3 Spot Commodity Price Index

YoY % -0.5 1.3

Aug. 23.1 2.1 7.2 56.6

YoY % -4.3 2.3 -8.2 -35.1

[Percent Change from Previous Month]:

Aug. CRB Spot Commodity Price Index ....................................................4.7

Sep. -0.3

YoY % -10.6

Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.

Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics

34


Overall Consumer Expenditure Price Index 5.0

Year over Year % Change

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

FOMC Forecast

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5 0.0

0.0 Aug. -0.5%

-0.5 -1.0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

-0.5 2011

-1.0 2012

Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the June 23-24 meeting.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

35


Core Consumer Expenditure Price Index 3.0

Year over Year % Change

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5 Aug. 1.3%

1.0

1.0

FOMC Forecast

0.5

0.0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0.5

0.0 2012

Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the June 23-24 meeting. Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

36


Consumer Price Indexes 6.0

Year over Year % Change

6.0

5.0 4.0

5.0 4.0

All Items

3.0

3.0

2.0

Aug. 1.4%

1.0

2.0 1.0

Core CPI

0.0

0.0

-1.0

-1.0 -1.5%

-2.0 -3.0 2003

-2.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-3.0 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

37


Producer Price Indexes 12

Year over Year % Change

12 10

10

8

8 All Finished Goods

6

6

4

4 Aug. 2.3%

2

2

Core Finished Goods

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4.3%

-6

-6 -8 2003

-4

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-8 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

38


Commodity Price Indexes 15

Year over Year % Change

Year over Year % Change PPI Core Intermediate Goods (Left Axis)

12 9

25 20 15

6

10

3

5

0

0

-3 -6 -9

Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity Price Index (Right Axis)

Sep. -10.6%

-5 -10 -15

Aug. -8.2%

-12

-20

-15

-25

-18

-30

-21 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-35 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics

39


Crude Oil Prices 150

Current Dollars / Barrel

150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100

100 Futures Price

90 80

90 80

70

Oct. 2

70

60

60

50

50 Spot Price

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0 1990

0 1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Source: Wall Street Journal, New York Mercantile Exchange, Haver Analytics

40


Real Crude Oil Prices 130

2005 $ / Barrel

130

120

120

110

110

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

Aug.

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0 0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Notes: Deflated using the Overall PCE Price Index.

Source: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics

41


TIPS Inflation Compensation 4.5

Percent

4.0 3.5

4.5 4.0

5-Year 5 Years Ahead

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

Oct. 2

5-Year

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

-0.5

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

-1.5

-1.5

-2.0

-2.0

-2.5

-2.5

-3.0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-3.0 2010

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

42


Monetary Policy Instruments 7.0

Percent

6.5

7.0 Federal Funds Target Rate

6.5

6.0

6.0

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5 4.0

4.5

Discount Rate (discontinued)

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

Primary Credit Rate

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

Federal Funds Rate Target Range

0.5 0.0 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1.0 Oct. 2

0.5

0.0 2010

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

43


Real Federal Funds Rate 6.0

Percent, effective Fed funds rate - lagged year over year change in core PCE price index

6.0

5.0

5.0

4.0

4.0

3.0

3.0

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

0.0 Oct.

-1.0 -2.0

-1.0 -2.0

-3.0 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-3.0 2010

Notes: Most recent observation uses expected Fed funds rate as implied by Fed funds futures contracts.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics

44


Expected Federal Funds Rate 0.75

Percent

0.75

September 8, 2009 October 2, 2009

0.50

0.50

0.25

0.25 Current Target Range for Federal Funds Rate

0.00

0.00 November 4

December 16

January 27

Notes: Derived from Fed funds futures contracts.

Source: Chicago Board of Trade

45


Federal Reserve System Assets 2600

$, Billions

2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400

TALF: $30 CPFF: $60

Discount Window: $34

Total: $2,045 Term Auction Facility: $234 AIG & Bear Stearns: $103

Term ABS Lending Facility (TALF): $43

Total: $2,179 Term Auction Facility: $178 AIG & Bear Stearns: $100

Currency Swaps: $76

Miscellaneous: $144

Miscellaneous: $137

CPFF: $42 Currency Swaps: $57 Discount Window: $28

Agency MBS: $692

1200 Agency MBS: $543

1000 800

Agency Debt: $130

Agency Debt: $109

600 400

Treasury Securities: $721

Treasury Securities: $766

8/12/2009

9/30/2009

200 0 Notes: CPFF is the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. Money Market Facility (AMLF) holdings were less than $1 billion on 8/12 & 9/30.

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

46


Monetary Base 1900

$ Billions

1900 Sep. 23

1800

1800

1700

1700

1600

1600

1500

1500

1400

1400

1300

1300

1200

1200

1100

1100

1000

1000

900

900

800

800

700 2006

2007

2008

2009

700 2010

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

47


M2 12

Year over Year % Change

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8 Aug. 7.8%

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0 2010

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

48


Money Market Rates 7.0

Percent

7.0 Primary Credit Rate

6.0

6.0

3-Month LIBOR Federal Funds Rate

5.0

5.0

4.0

4.0 3-Month T-Bill

3.0

3.0

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0 Oct. 2

0.0 2006

2007

2008

2009

0.0 2010

Source: Board of Governors, Financial Times, Haver Analytics

49


Capital Market Rates 10.5

Percent

10.5

9.5

9.5

8.5

8.5

7.5

Corporate BBB Bond Rate

30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate

7.5

6.5

6.5

5.5

5.5

4.5 3.5

Oct. 2 Corporate AAA Bond Rate

3.5 10-Yr. Treasury Bond Rate

2.5 1.5 2006

4.5

2007

2008

2.5

2009

1.5 2010

Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics

50


Treasury Yield Curve 4.00

Percent

4.00 September 8, 2009 October 2, 2009

3.50

3.50

3.00

3.00

2.50

2.50

2.00

2.00

1.50

1.50

1.00

1.00

0.50

0.50

0.00

0.00 6M

2 Yrs 3 Yrs

5 Yrs

10 Yrs

Time to Maturity

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

51


Risk Premium 8.00

Percent, Merrill Lynch Corporate BBB - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield

8.00

7.50

7.50

7.00

7.00

6.50

6.50

6.00

6.00

5.50

5.50

5.00

5.00

4.50

4.50

4.00

4.00

3.50

3.50

3.00

3.00

2.50

Oct. 2

10 Year Average Risk Premium

2.50

2.00

2.00

1.50

1.50

1.00

1.00

0.50 2006

2007

2008

2009

0.50 2010

Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics

52


Exchange Value of the US$ 135

Index: March 1973 = 100

135

125

125

115

115

105

105

95

95 Sep.

85

85

75 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

75

Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar.

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

53

NEI  

national economic indiactors - Oct 6

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