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Climate resilience  in  the  eastern  Himalayas:     Integrated  approaches  to  assessing  vulnerability  and  developing   adapta5on  strategies   July  14,  2013    

Ryan Bartle3,  Sarah  Freeman  


Flowing Forward:  the  WWF  CCVA  Approach   •  2010  World  Bank  report:  guiding  principles  for   adaptaFon  in  the  water  sector   •  Evolved  to  more  structured  approach  via   applicaFons  in  Coastal  East  Africa,  the  Mekong  Basin,   Eastern  Himalayas   •  Assesses  climate  change  vulnerability  of  human  and   ecological  systems  at  the  landscape/river  basin  scale      


•  Directly reliant  on  stakeholder  parFcipaFon     •  “TriangulaFon”:  peer-­‐reviewed  science,  community   and  expert  parFcipatory  assessment   •  Main  objecFve:  prioriFze  vulnerabiliFes  and  develop   adaptaFon  acFons  


The Flowing  Forward  Framework   Resilience IdenFfy  Analysis   Units

Vulnerability Exposure   (Impact  Severity)

Adapta9on Planning Social  Adap9ve   Capacity

Climate Scenarios

InformaFon

Climate-­‐ Development Policies Impacts Development   Scenarios InsFtuFons

Social Exposure     Adap9ve   (Impact  Severity) Capacity


General Process   1.  IdenFficaFon  of  data  and   informaFon  gaps   2.  Data  and  informaFon   collecFon  and  analysis   (including  community   surveys)   3.  Vulnerability  and  AdaptaFon   Workshop       4.  Final  Outputs   5.  Follow  up  


The Chitwan-­‐Annapurna  Landscape  (CHAL)/Gandaki   Basin  


The Chitwan-­‐Annapurna  Landscape  (CHAL)/ Gandaki  Basin   •  North-­‐south  connecFvity  between  internaFonally   renown  naFonal  parks  and  conservaFon  areas   •  Extremely  diverse  sub-­‐climates  and  ecosystems   –  Globally  significant  and  endangered  biodiversity  

•  Rapid economic  growth  enhancing  livelihoods,   development  pressures  on  ecosystem  services   •  Rapid  infrastructure  development  creaFng  new   pressures   •  Climate  changes  already  evident:  seasonality,   phenology,  variability,  extreme  events  


Analysis Units   Human  and  natural  systems   within  ecoregional  gradients   •  Human   –  Infrastructure:  naFonal  and   district  roads,  hydropower     –  urban  and  rural  se3lements,     –  agro-­‐ecosystems    

•  Natural –  Forests,  wetlands,  rivers,   cryosphere,  target  species    


Stakeholder Driven  VA  Process   •  Through  three  key  components  of  framework:   –  Community-­‐level  VA  and  adaptaFon  planning   –  InformaFon  collecFon  and  synthesis   –  ParFcipatory  stakeholder  workshop  


Community VA  and  AdaptaFon  Planning   ConsultaFons   •  CVCAs  in  6  ecologically  representaFve  sites   •  MulFfold  objecFves     •  MulFple  stages  of  engagement  (i.e.  assessment,  

representaFon at  the  stakeholder  workshop  and  follow  up  meeFngs)  


Data and  InformaFon   CollecFon  and  Analysis   –  Studies  commissioned   and  consultants,   academics  included  as   stakeholders  in   subsequent  process   –  Climate  informa9on   derived  from  literature,   trend  analyses  and   community  percepFons   and  validated  during   workshop  

2050 Scenario:  

(G. J.  Thapa,  E.  Wikramanayake,  J.Forrest,  2013)   37   35   33   31   29   27   25   1970  

1975

1980

1985

y =  0.0273x  -­‐  21.333   R²  =  0.06874  

June Linear  (June)  

1990

1995

y =  0.0275x  -­‐  22.575   R²  =  0.09493  

July Linear  (July)  

2000

2005

2010

y =  0.028x  -­‐  23.268   R²  =  0.1023  

August Linear  (August)  


ParFcipatory Workshop   •  Diverse  mix  of  key  stakeholders  in  the  landscape   –  Program  partners:  development,  conservaFon  NGOs   –  Relevant  government  departments:  IrrigaFon,  Forestry,   Agriculture,  Local  Development   –  Local  governments:  District  and  Village  Development   Commi3ees   –  Community  representaFves  from  across  the  landscape   –  Private  sector:  hydropower  companies   Resilience IdenFfy   Analysis  Units

Exposure   (Impact   Severity)

Vulnerability

Social Adap9ve   Capacity

Adapta9on Planning


Results •  Not  just  what  is  most  vulnerable/resilient  but   why   –  the  SeF  sub-­‐catchment:  

•  high exposure  to  climate-­‐development  impacts  (sand-­‐ gravel  mining,  increasing  flow  variability);  limited  inherent   resilience  (connecFvity,  funcFonal  redundancy)  

–  Sub-­‐tropical broadleaf  forests:  

•  High exposure  to  climate-­‐development  impacts   (deforestaFon  from  increasing  human  encroachment,   producFvity  declines);  limited  inherent  resilience   (fragmentaFon)  

–  Rural se3lements:  

•  High exposure  to  climate-­‐development  impacts  (poor   infrastructure  planning  +  increasing  severity  of  extreme   events);  limited  inherent  resilience  (isolated  from  naFonal   infrastructure)  


Conclusions   •  The  integrated  Flowing  Forward  approach  is   valuable  for  mulFple  reasons:   –  HolisFc  basin-­‐wide  approach:  glacier  to  terminus   –  SensiFzaFon  and  capacity  building  on  climate  issues   for  relevant  decision-­‐making  stakeholders  and   communiFes   –  Aids  “buy-­‐in”  of  local  communiFes  and  leaders  to  the   adaptaFon  process   –  Consensus  building  around  priority  adaptaFon  acFons   –  Stakeholder  driven  planning  for  subsequent  years  of   program  


Thank you  

Ryan Bartlett: Climate resilience eastern Himalayas integrated approaches ppt  

Slides for presentation given to High Mountains Adaptation Partnership in Huaraz, Peru on 13 July 2013.

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