Glacial Flooding & Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Exchange and Field Training July 11-24, 2013 in Huaraz, Peru HighMountains.org/workshop/peru-2013
Modern and past climate and environmental change impact on cryosphere/water resources in Central Asia Vladimir B. Aizen and Elena M. Aizen University of Idaho, USA E-‐mail: email@example.com Abstract The central Asian cryosphere is a part of planet's climate and hydrological system, one that is particularly at risk from accelerated climate changes. Despite the very arid climate, the central Asian glaciers comprise approximately 10,000 km3 fresh water that is a vital source of life for more than 100 million people. The history of climate revealed from the ice-‐core isotope-‐ chemistry records large variability in the past 12,600 years in central Asia. Glaciers in Altai and inner Tien Shan did not exist at the end of Pleistocene, and were regenerated during and the Younger Dryas, when air temperature was 6.1 ± 0.3◦C lower than the modern mean air temperature (Aizen et al, 2013d). An abrupt increase in air temperature of more than 6.7°C at the end of the Younger Dryas occurred for less than one century did not destroyed glaciers in Altai. During the last 30 years of modern time, annual air temperature increased 0.65°C, mainly in summer, and up to 1.6°C over the prairies and deserts. In high mountains of central Tien Shan air temperature increased on 0.21°C but, even a small increase of summer air temperatures intensifies seasonal snow and glacier melt, decreasing snow cover duration for one month. The glaciers lost on average 14% of area and 27% of volume in Altai from 1960s to 2009, 8.5% of area in Tien Shan and 5% in Pamir from 1970th to 2009. Keywords: Central Asia; cryosphere, climate, snow cover; glaciers; paleoclimate Introduction Shrinking of alpine glaciers and the acceleration of the glacier’s recession appears from the middle of 1970 in the majority of mountain regions of the World (Heiberly, 1990; Kadota et al., 1997; Liu et al., 2002; Zemp et al., 2006; Aizen et al., 2006; Niederer et al., 2008; Paul and Andreassen, 2009; Shahgedanova et al., 2010). An accurate evaluation of cryospheric changes becomes a crucial issue for water resource, water supply and hydropower assessments in central Asia. Central Asia has extremely fragile arid lowlands and water-‐rich highlands, where melt of glacier and seasonal snow cover supplies over 80% of river runoff (Dikih, 1993; Aizen, et al., 1998; Shi, et al., 2007). During droughts, glacial runoff can reach 45% (Schultc, 1965, Aizen, 1997). There is a lack of generalized knowledge on cryospheric changes over high central Asia. Existent investigations used data from a few stations (Table 1a), accounting for a relatively limited number of glaciers (Table 1b), which results often do not account for the extended terrain in central Asia and are valid only for local purposes. Central Asia (Fig. 1) with area of about 6.2 million km2 consists primarily of planes, with high mountains, reaching 7,000 m in the south and southeast. The highest point is Kongur in the eastern Pamir, of 7719 m, and the lowest point is the Turphan depression in eastern Tien 1
Shan, of -‐154 m bsl. In our research, Central Asia is bordered by Caspian Sea, western Siberia and Altai mountains, the Mongolian steppes and the Gobi desert, and the Takla Mahan and Karakum deserts. Data and Methods Meteorological data include monthly average air temperatures and sums of precipitation from 251 stations spanning 35.28°-‐50.25°N and 50.4°-‐91.98°E and from -‐134 m bsl to 4169 m asl for two periods: 1942-‐1975 and 1976-‐2009. Sums of annual (Pan), winter (Pw) and summer (Ps) precipitation, means of annual (Tan) and summer (Ts) air temperatures, linear trends (α) for the two periods (1942-‐1975 and 1976-‐2009) and their differences (ΔT, ΔP) were calculated. The statistical significance was determined by T-‐test, F-‐ test and non-‐parametric test (Wilks, 2011). We consider acceleration (a) through changes in linear trends for two periods: a = α1976-‐ 2009 – α1942-‐1975. To generate continuous spatial fields for climatic characteristics, we used the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method (Hofierka et al., 2002) interpolating temporal gaps (Fotheringham et al., 2002; Brunsdon et al., 2001). The lapse were estimated for each grid point based on data from closest stations. Input from a station is linearly weighted due to its distance from the point. Cross validation was used to evaluate the errors of spatial interpolation. Remote sensing data: Snow covered area: A 8-‐day dataset was developed based on 1 km AVHRR and High Resolution Picture Transmission (NOAA, 1998, 2007) via NOAA Stewardship System (http://www.class.ncdc.noaa.gov/) from 1976 to 2009 using SAPS (Khlopenkov and Trischenko, 2007). MODIS Terra daily and 8-‐day snow cover product (MOD10A1v5 and MOD10A2v5) was obtained from NSIDC (http://nsidc.org/data/modis/). Auxiliary data include Digital Elevation Model (500 m -‐ 1 km), snow survey data, and land cover information. Snow survey data obtained from NSIDC were used to validate snow identification in daily composite AVHRR. The Land Cover Classification data at 1 km resolution from AVHRR (Hansen et al., 1998, 2000) was obtained from University of Maryland (Zhou et al, 2013). Glacier area/volume (1970th-‐2009) were completed in three central Asia glacier inventories (http://www.asiacryoweb.org) using declassified photographs from Corona and KH-‐9 Mapping Program, Landsat ETM+ and ASTER images, and ALOS/PRISM 2.5 m resolution (Surazakov & Aizen, 2010; Aizen, 2011). Volume of all Altai-‐Sayan glaciers was estimated using glacier area/volume relationships developed with in-‐situ radio echo-‐sounding measurements of 130 glaciers (Nikitin, 2009). Maps of the Fedchenko Gl., central Pamir, from 1928 and 1958 photogrammetric surveys and data of ice surface velocity, DEMs and ground penetrating radar measurements in 2009, were used to estimate glacier ice-‐volume changes from 1928 to 2009 (Lambrecht, et al, 2013). 12,600 years paleoclimatic isotope-‐chemistry records were obtained from two surface to bedrock ice-‐cores drilled in 2003 on the West Belukha Plateau (Siberian Altai at 4115 m; 171.3 m depth) and in 2007 on the Grigorieva Ice-‐cap (Inner Tien Shan at 4563 m; 87.46 m depth). Both ice-‐cores were processed and analyzed at University of Idaho, University of Maine (USA), National Institute for Polar Research and Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (Japan) dedicated laboratories at 2-‐3 cm resolution (Takeuchi et al, 2013; Aizen et al, 2013). Stable isotope ratios (δ18O, δD) were determined via headspace equilibration using a Finnigan Delta Plus isotope mass spectrometer coupled with Finnigan's GasBench II. The analytical precision of δ18O and δD isotope ratios was ±0.05‰ and ±0.5‰. Major ion 2
analysis was via suppressed ion chromatography using a Dionex DX500 system. Ion concentration was determined at 0.01–0.07m resolution with minimum of 1 ppb. Radiocarbon analysis of the POC fraction was conducted at Laboratory of Radio and Environmental Chemistry at Paul Scherrer Institute (Switzerland) (Jenk et al. 2009; Sigl et al., 2009). Radiogenic (δ3H) isotope ratios were measured via liquid scintillation counting at National Institute of Polar Research and in the Idaho State University, USA. The dating was based on: δ3H and 14C marks; seasonal signal in stratigraphy and stable isotope distribution; multi-‐identification of layers including forest fires, Tunguska explosion, dust storm and significant volcanic eruptions. The numeric modeling of ice thickness aging presented in Raymond (1983) and implemented by Kaspari et al., (2008), Thompson et al., (1989, 2000), Yao and Yang (2004), Davis et al., (2005) was applied. Information on discrepancy of dating presented in (Aizen et al., 2013d). Results and Discussion Changes in climatic characteristics (between 1976-‐2009 and 1942-‐1975). Air temperatures. Increases in annual means were observed at 93% and 7% of stations show no changes. The area-‐weighted difference in annual mean temperature throughout the central Asia was 0.65°C, with the most increase in the summer. The most significant differences in annual/summer means were observed in the Aral Caspian deserts and Kazakhstan steeps (ΔTa=1°C, ΔTs =1.6°C). The lowest difference was in the central Tien Shan, 0.21°C. Differences in annual means decreased with altitude from 0.72°C below 1,000 m to 0.31°C above 3,000 m, while the summer differences were significant throughout all regions and altitudes. Area weighted means of acceleration was positive (0.034°C yr-‐1) throughout regions and altitudes with the most acceleration in summer (0.024°C yr-‐1). The western and eastern Pamir regions in summer are exceptions. Precipitation increased significantly at 35%, decreased at 35%, and did not change at the remaining 30% of stations. In summer 46% of stations showed decreases and 20% showed increases. In winter, 47% stations showed increases, while only 16% showed decreases. Spatially interpolated ΔPan ranged from +27 mm in plain/desert to -‐101 mm in the inner and central Tien Shan. The total area weighted ΔPan was positive because the areas with increased precipitation exceeded the areas with decreased precipitation by 8%. Increases in annual precipitation were observed in western and eastern Pamir, western Aral-‐Caspian, northern Tien Shan foothills, southern Altai-‐Sayan mountains and eastern Tarim deserts (42% of central Asia area). An increase in winter precipitation was observed below 2,000 m, while winter precipitation decreased in eastern Pamir and Tien Shan above 2,000m. Annual differences on average decreased in alpine areas above 3,000 m. However, the western Pamir ΔPan had increases at all altitudes, while the western, inner and eastern Tien Shan had significant decreases over all altitudes. The greatest decrease in precipitation occurred during the summer especially at altitudes above 3,000 m in Tien Shan. Changes in cryosphere: Seasonal snow cover (1976-‐ 2009). The Man-‐Kendall's test revealed negative trend in snow covered area (SCA) with the rate of -‐0.31% yr-‐1 in western Pamir above 3,000 m, -‐0.41% yr-‐1 in eastern Pamir above 4,000 m, -‐0.35% yr-‐1 in western Tien Shan above 3,000 m and -‐ 0.31% yr-‐1 in inner Tien Shan above 3,000m, while Altai-‐Sayan shows increase of SCA by +0.25% yr-‐1 due to increase of winter precipitation. Maximum decrease of SCA is observed at the beginning of June. There is the negative trend of snow cover duration (SCD) over 3,000 m 3
of -‐0.80 day yr-‐1 in Pamir and -‐1.20 day yr-‐1 in Tien Shan. The SCD reduced by 30 by 2009 in central Asia. The glaciers of Altai-‐Sayan. Counting the glaciers larger than 0.1 km2, there were 1,428 glaciers with area of 1,285 km2 by 2009. The glaciers lost on average 14% of area from 1960s to 2009 (Surazakov et al., 2007; Nikitin, 2009; Shahgedanova et al., 2010; Aizen, 2011a). The recession varied from 4% for valley glaciers to 16% for small cirque and piedmont glaciers. The number of glaciers have reduced by 7.5% that mainly attributed by small glaciers. Average glacier retreat was from -‐2 to -‐10m yr-‐1 with maximum of -‐45m yr-‐1. Overall glacier recession was accompanied by expansion of 5 glaciers in 1988 and 8 glaciers in 1993. The glaciers ice volume was 33.5 km3 in 2009 and 42.6 km3 in 1960 (Nikitin, 2009). Altai’s glaciers lost 9.1 km3 (27%). The glaciers of Tien Shan had area 12,949.29 km2 (7,590 glaciers, 1,840 km3) in 2009 and 14,152.23 km2 in the 1970th, resulting in 8.5% loss. The largest absolute and relative glacier area loss occurred in the northern Tien Shan (361 km2, 14.3%), where sums of precipitation decreased above 3,000 m (-‐18.6 mm), and the summer air temperatures increased on 0.44°C. Similar large absolute recession occurred in the inner and central Tien Shan at higher than in the northern Tien Shan elevations: annual precipitation decreased -‐35 mm and summer air temperatures increased 0.71°C. The least absolute glacier recession occurred in the western Tien Shan where the mountains do not reach 4000 m, summer air temperatures increased only 0.23°C and precipitation decreased -‐13.4 mm. The eastern Tien Shan lost 196 km2 of glacier area (12%) (Li, 2006; Aizen, 2013c). The tongue of the largest Tien Shan glacier, Inylchek, (59 km long, 547 km2) retreated 700 m and area loss is -‐0.98 km2 (-‐0.3%) from 1943 to 2011. The glaciers of Pamir cover 12,449 km2 in 1970th and 11,834 km2 in 2009 (Aizen et al , 2011c). The Pamir glaciers changed mainly due to shrinkage of small glaciers with area <0.5-‐ 2.0 km2, which numbers decreased from 456 in 1970s to 359 in 2009. The number of medium (2.1 – 10.0 km2) and large glaciers (over 100 km2) remains stable and their area shrunk less than 2%. The large central Pamir glaciers are the most stable due to high elevated location of accumulation areas and precipitation surplus in the last two decades. The rate glacier recession is: -‐11.5% and -‐7.6% in Hindukush and Vakhshan Ranges, southern Pamir; -‐4.9% in Gissaro-‐Alai; -‐0.7% and -‐1.5% in central Pamir, and -‐3.8% in eastern Pamir and total glaciers area shrunk 615 km2 (5%) from 1970 to 2009. According to Schetinnikov (1998), Pamir glacier area has shrunk 10.5% from 1950s to 1980. The Fedchenko Glacier, one of the world largest alpine glaciers (72 km long, 579 km2), has insignificantly retreated 755 m with area loss of -‐ 2.91 km2 (-‐0.5%) from 1958 to 2009 (Lambrecht, et al., 2013; Aizen, eat al., 2013a). However, the level of the glacier surface dropped -‐30 m at the altitude of terminus (2,896 m) with ice volume loss of about 4.3 km³ from 1958 to 2009. The historical photogrammetry surveys on the Fedchenko Gl. have revealed that glaciers in Pamir had the highest rate of recession from 1928 to 1958. In the 1960s and between 2000 and 2007, the area loss was insignificant (0.014 and 0.010 km²/yr respectively) (Lambrecht, et al, 2013). Paleoclimate The Altai-‐Sayan and Tien Shan glaciers below 5,000 m did not exist in the Bølling-‐Allerød period (Takeuchi, et al., 2012; Aizen, et al., 2013d). Altai-‐Sayan glaciers regenerated during the Younger Dryas (YD), when air temperatures were on average 6.1°C lower than in the Recent Warming Period (RWP), i.e. from 1993 to 2003. The inner Tien Shan Glaciers regenerated later (Takeuchi et al., 2013). An abrupt decrease in air temperatures at the beginning, and an increase at the end, of the YD intensified winds and dust loading to atmosphere from 4
expanded Asian deserts. Concentrations of major ions increased significantly during the transitional time of abrupt air temperature change while during the minimum air temperatures of the YD, mineral dust loading weakened. These results are in accordance with analyses from Greenland (Mayewski et al., 1997), Antarctica (Jouzel et al., 1996), and tropical alpine (Thompson et al., 1995) ice cores. After the YD, major ions concentration decreased, with the lowest concentrations during RWP. During the Holocene, the time colder than RWP observed for about six and a half millennia, i.e., YD, Pre Boreal Oscillation, Severe Centennial Drought (SCD). During SCD air temperature was on average 4.9°C lower than during the following MWP, and 4.41° lower compared to the recent time. The Altai glaciers survived the Abrupt Warming Events, the Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO), and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Air temperatures during the HCO and MWP were warmer corresponding to a 1.6°C and 2.4°C centennial means increase compared RWP. During the MWP, decadal means exceeded 3.3°C the recent decadal mean air temperatures. The most intensive enrichment of δ18O is related to circa 760 AD during the MWP when temperatures reached a maximum, further cooling followed gradually with periods of higher or lower temperatures until the middle of 20th century. Changed trajectories in prevailing western and northwestern storms from the Atlantic during MWP described by Bradley (2000), Bradley et al. (2003), resulted in increase share of re-‐evaporated moisture from the Aralo-‐Caspian basin, which extended and dominated as far as Tien Shan and Siberia with a maximum share during the pre-‐industrialization time (Aizen et al., 2013d). Conclusion Significant increases in annual and summer average air temperatures for the last 30 years were observed at 93% of central Asian stations. The most significant increase was observed in the Aral Caspian deserts and Kazakhstan steeps. Acceleration in grow of annual and summer air temperatures were positive throughout regions and altitudes, except for the western and eastern Pamir in summer. Increases in precipitation for the last 30 years were observed in the western Pamir, the western Aral-‐Caspian, the northern Tien Shan foothills, Altai-‐Sayan mountains and eastern Tarim deserts. The increase in winter precipitation was observed mainly below 2,000 m, and in central Pamir and eastern Pamir above 5,000 m. The largest decrease in precipitation observed during the summer, particularly in Tien Shan over 3,000 m asl. The rate of seasonal snow covered area decrease for the last 30 years varied from -‐0.31% to 0.41% yr-‐1 in western and eastern Pamir, and in western and inner Tien Shan above 3,000 -‐ 4,000 m. The Altai-‐Sayan shows positive rate: +0.25% yr-‐1. The rate of glacier area change is different in the large glacierized massifs and small glaciers. The biggest glacier recession observed below 4,000-‐4,500 m. The 80% of glacier covered area are presented by several large glacierized massifs over 300 km2 each with accumulation areas above 5,000 m, where the rate of area recession does not exceed 3% for the last 40-‐60 years. However, changes in glacier covered area do not represent the real changes of glaciers. To estimate the water resources in central Asia, assessment of changes in ice volume is necessary. Glaciers up to 5,000 m in central Asia did not exist during the Bølling-‐Allerød interstadial period. The climate that time was warmer than during the last 30 years. The glaciers regenerated during and after the Younger Dryas, when air temperatures were on average 6.1oC lower than now. At the end of Younger Dryas air temperature increased abruptly more than 6.7oC within 100 years. Reconstructed air temperatures shows several periods during the 5
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45.77N 62.12-‐78.4 E
(6) north 9 China (b) Region
197 9– 199 9
(7) 1943-‐ Akshiirak 1977 (8) 1977-‐ Akshiirak 2001
(9) 1977-‐ Akshiirak 2003
(10) 1955-‐ Zailiyskiy 1990 Alatau (11) Zailiyskiy 1979-‐ Alatau (6 1999 valleys) (12) Sokoluk R. basin, Kirgizkiy range (13) Glacier No. 1, Urumqi (14) Terskey-‐
thrusts were identified : beginning 30th ; 50th 70th
1963-‐ 1986 1986-‐ 2000 1962-‐ 2003 1971-‐ 2002
Droughts for 3 summers (1997-‐99)
Initial Data, map/image geo-‐referencing error, Area change, area, method of glacier delineation for the First (F), km2 (%) km2 Second (S) and Third (T) inventories F, S: 1:10,000 topographic maps compiled from aerial photography; horizontal errors < 424.7 -‐17.95 (-‐4.2) 2.5 m; manual digitizing with stereo interpretation of the aerial photographs. F: 1:50,000 map (Kuzmichenok, 1990); manual digitizing of the scanned map. 406.8 -‐93.6 (-‐23) S: ASTER image; georeferencing errors were not reported; manual digitizing. F: original glacier boundaries from Kuzmichenok (1990) 406.8 S: ASTER image; image orthorectification -‐35.15 (-‐8.6) error 9 m; manual digitizing with stereo interpretation of the 3N and 3B bands. F: Glacier boundaries were transferred from aerial photographs to 1:25,000 map; errors of 287.3 area estimation 5-‐7%. 81.8 (-‐29) S: Aerial photographs, same methods as above; errors of area estimation 2-‐3%. F: 1:100,000 topographic maps; nominal accuracy 20 m; manual digitizing 198.3 S: Landsat ETM; errors of area estimation 2-‐ -‐34.2 (-‐17.3) 7 3%; multispectral classification and manual editing. F: 1:25,000 topographic maps; nominal accuracy 5 m; manual digitizing. 31.7 S: KFA1000 space photograph; -‐4.2 (-‐13.3) orthorectification error 15 m; manual digitizing. T: Landsat ETM+; orthorectification error 10 27.5 -‐4.7 (-‐17.1) m; 4/5 band ratio for glacier classification. F,S: topographic maps 1962, 1964, 1986, 1992, 1994, 2000 and 2001; errors were not 1.94 -‐0.24 (-‐12.4) reported; manual digitizing. 245
F: Corona (1.8 m resolution); orthorectification error 30.0 m; manual
-‐18 (-‐8) 10
Alatoo (15) Aksu 1963-‐ R. basin 1999 (15) Kaidu R. basin
digitizing. S: Landsat ETM+; orthorectification error 25.7 m; multispectral classification. F: Topographic maps of 1:100,000 scale; 1760 manual digitizing. S: Landsat TM and ETM; manual digitizing. Linear error of glacier boundary change 90 m. 333 Only the glaciers with length change >90m were included in the study. F: Aerial photographs and S: Landsat TM 2093. images. Linear error of glacier boundary 8 change 90 m. Only the glaciers with length change >90m were included in the study.
-‐58.6 (-‐3.3) -‐38.5 (-‐11.6)
(16) 1960s Southern -‐ -‐96.3 (-‐4.6) Chinese 1999 Tien Shan (1) Aizen et al., 1997; (2) Yatagai and Yasunari, 1994; (3) Finaev, 2005; (4) Konovalov, 2003; (5) Giese et al., 2007; (6) Xu, 2001; (7) Kuzmichenok, 1990; (8) Khromova et al., 2003; (9) Aizen, et al., 2007; (10) Vilesov and Uvarov, 2001; (11) Bolch, 2007; (12) Niederer et al., 2008; (13) Ye et al., 2005; (14) Narama et al., 2006; (15) Liu et al., 2002; (16) Ding et al., 2006. Figures Fig. 1. The Central Asia study area
Published on Sep 25, 2013
The central Asian cryosphere is a part of planet's climate and hydrological system, one that is particularly at risk from accelerated climat...