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September 2013 / Tishrei 5774
Kol Ami: Iran Winner? Iran has already taken the measure of President Obama and found him wanting. It would have been much harder all along for the Iranians to supply Syria if the US physically controlled Iraqi skies, but the President withdrew troops from Iraq, leaving the strategically important space between Iran and Syria without US influence or control of the air. Events this month in Syria showed Iran that the US has a President who cannot put forward a clear, achievable military mission, even though international norms were violated. Iran is obviously the big winner. Its client, Syria, is still standing, and Russia just announced it will sell the Islamic Republic S-300 missiles that had previously been withheld. Russia will also sell Iran a nuclear reactor. Iran would be making a mistake, however, if it believes there will never be a clear, achievable military mission in the Middle
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East or a mandate to pursue it. The mullahs might be surprised at what will coalesce American resolve. Sometimes, we surprise even ourselves. Putin was almost another big winner, because Syria is his client, too. In the long run, however, Putin is on the losing side because he wanted Shiite-allied Syria to defeat the Sunni coalition arrayed against Assad. Russia’s restive, nationalist Muslims are Sunnis, too, and a short, nasty war culminating in an AssadShiite victory might deter Russian-Muslim separatists. But AlQaeda and the Sunni jihadists have been strengthened by the fighting in Syria, and Putin will likely find some of them in Chechnya and Dagestan in the future, better armed and more experienced—precisely the opposite of his aims. Oh, yes, Assad is a small winner because he’s still alive, although that may be a temporary condition.
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Shoshana Bryen Washington, DC Ms. Bryen was, for more than 25 years, executive director and senior director for security policy at the Jewish Institute for Security Affairs and author of its JINSA Reports. She has worked with the Strategic Studies Institute of the US War Army College and the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and lectured at the National Defense University in Washington. The Iranians—and the entire rest of the world— can understand the Obama administration’s diplomatic acrobatics in only one way: the President and his team are in way over their heads, lurching from self-imposed trap to self-inflicted crisis, while eroding the credibility of the US government and increasing the dangers facing Americans and their allies. The fact that Obama seems driven to defend his own honor and credibility, regardless of the price to the country, makes this episode particularly troublesome. The big winners in his decision to do nothing were all opponents and enemies of the US, its allies, and modern civilization itself. Dr. Daniel Pipes Philadelphia, PA Dr. Pipes is president of the Middle East Forum. His bi-weekly column appears regularly in the Washington Times, Israel Hayom, La Razon (Spain), Libral (Italy), National Post (Canada), and The Australian. Many people think President Obama accomplished nothing in this crisis, but, in fact, Iran saw that that the current US government is willing to mobilize its military if necessary and, with the help of a few allies, including France and the Arab League, has set the stage for Assad to lose his
chemical weapons. Without chemical weapons, the situation in Syria reverts to a civil war rather than a regional threat. The winner is everyone who hates chemical weapons. Maybe the children in Tel Aviv won’t need their gas masks after all. Dr. Ben Chouake Englewood, NJ A physician, Dr. Chouake is president of NORPAC, a bipartisan, multi-candidate political action committee (PAC) working to strengthen the United StatesIsrael relationship. The big winner in the President’s decision to do nothing is obviously Putin, who is now largely in control of the situation. He was able to play the President along, dangle the bait, and then snap it out of reach. For example, he told Obama, yes, Assad will give up his chemical weapons, but only if you renounce the use of force in advance. Iranian leaders have to take heart in Putin’s victory because it is the Russian leader who has Iran’s back. He has not only proved his mettle as an ally, he has promised to supply them with the most advanced missile weapons. If Iran had any worries about Obama’s taking out its nuclear sites, those fears are surely alleviated. In fact, if Obama had made the “unbelievably small” strike promised by Secretary of State Kerry, Iran’s concerns would still have been put to rest. Prof Rael Jean Isaac Irvington, NY Editor of Americans for a Safe Israel’s “Outpost,” Dr. Isaac is a prolific author. Her most recent book is “Roosters of the Apocalypse: How the Junk Science of Global Warming Almost Bankrupted the Western World,” published by the Heartland Institute.