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TEACHERS’ TRAINING ON CLIMATE CHANGE South Central School San Fernando City, La Union October 25, 2012

Climate Change and Climate Trends & Projections in the Philippines Presented by:

Vivien S. Esquivel PAGASA-DOST


Contents


What is global warming? • Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s mean temperature due to the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect.  global average air temperature increased by 0.74°C from 1906 to 2005  Strong temperature increase since 1975 (unprecedented)


What is climate change? “Change in the climate is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities , in addition to natural climate variability observed, over a comparable time periods� - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

4


A diagram of the natural greenhouse effect on earth, where the Earth's temperature is kept constant to support life.

A diagram showing how additional greenhouse gases trap more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere and raises the temperature.


Example of the Greenhouse Effect The Sun’s energy passes through the car’s windshield.

This energy (heat) is trapped inside the car and cannot pass back through the windshield, causing the inside of the car to warm up.


Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas CARBON DIOXIDE - Burning of Fossil Fuels(Oil,Coal) by Powerplants, Industries and Vehicles

Transportation

Carbon dioxide

Energy Generation Industrial Processes


Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas Methane - Decomposition of Garbage and

Methane

Agricultural Waste Materials, Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas Production Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects Land Use: Agriculture & Forestry


Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas Nitrous Oxide: • Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans • Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture • Biomass Burning • Combustion Process of Vehicles

Nitrous oxides


Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas Hydrofluorocarbons

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)


Is the Climate Changing?


Key findings of the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report:

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal�


IPCC Conclusions  Warming of the climate system  Increasing in global average air and ocean temperatures  Rising global average sea level  Reductions of snow and ice

Warmest 12 years on record


What are the impacts of Climate Change on various socio-economic sectors?


Impacts of Climate Change

Agriculture and food security – Added heat stress, shifting monsoons, drier soils and water shortages as a result of higher temperatures will affect livestock and crop production patterns with expanded range of weeds, insects and diseases which may reduce global food supplies and contribute to higher food prices.


Impacts of Climate Change


Impacts of Climate Change Decline of 29% - 60% in agricultural yield

WILL DIRECTLY THREATEN FOOD SECURITY, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PHILIPPINES HAS ONE OF THE HIGHEST POPULATION GROWTH


Impacts of Climate Change On Health - Extreme temperatures can directly cause the loss of life (ex: 35,000 people died during heat wave in Europe, Aug‘03.) .


Impacts of Climate Change On Health - Extreme temperatures can directly cause the loss of life (ex: 35,000 people died during heat wave in Europe, Aug‘03.) .


Impacts of Climate Change On Health  Global Warming increases drought which lessens the supply of clean drinking water. • Cholera  It increases temperature providing an ideal breeding environment for mosquitoes. • Dengue fever • Malaria • Yellow fever


Impacts of Climate Change


Impacts of Global Warming • Severe Drought • Reduction in agricultural production enhancing poverty and food shortage • Ground water depletion due to excessive ground water extraction • Dwindling water resources • Flooding both in riverine area and flash floods from in hill torrents. • Threat to aquatic life and migratory birds • Reduced hydro power generation result to more emphasis on fossil fuel. • Sea level Rise


The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The past typhoons have been unusually devastating to our country and our people.

Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm


ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006 TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006 Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) TY Milenyo, Sept 2006

June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars)


How vulnerable is the Philippines?


Highly Susceptible to Floodings and Inundation • Archipelago, composed of low lying small islands • 70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas • Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges


“Of all the nations in the world, the Philippines has experienced the most number of natural hazards in the 20th century. China, the USA in third position”.

Top Ten Countries vulnerable to the impacts of Climate Change (2008-2009).

Kovach, R.L. 1995. Earth’s Fury” An introduction to

natural hazards and disaster. Prentice Hall, NJ, USA.

http://www.aneki.com

2009 Source: CRED Crunch, Issue No. 19,

www.cdrc-phil.com

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Countries Bangladesh Burma Honduras Vietnam Nicaragua Haiti India Dominican Republic Philippines China E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.


WorldRisk Report 2011 UNU-EHS: United Nation University Institute of Environment and Human Society Source: WorldRiskReport.org


WorldRisk Report 2011 UNU-EHS: United Nation University Institute of Environment and Human Society Source: WorldRiskReport.org


How is global warming manifested in the Philippines?


What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale? ď ś In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer.

ď ś Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been seen to be more frequent.


Philippine mean temperature Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values 1 0.8 Annual mean temp

-2 ) 0

0.6

Smoothed series (5 year running mean)

0.4

ツイ 7 9 1 m )fro

0.2 0 -0.2

Period

( c rn ife D

-0.4

1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) 1951-2010 (60 years) Years

-0.6 -0.8

Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST

1955

1960

1965

Rate

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

- 0.0164 - 0.0108 ツイ/year 2005

2010

Year

An increase of 0.648ツーC from 1951-2010 (60 years)


Maximum & Minimum Temperature

Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature


Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

(Hot days).

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

(Warm nights)


Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile

Cool Days

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile

Cold nights


Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Period: (1948-2010) s.

Visited by an average of 19 to 20 TYPHOONS EVERY YEAR

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set)


20.5 20.5

Comparison of 30-year mean of T.C. Comparison of 30-year mean number of Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines

20.0 20.0

19.5 19.5

s yn lC ica p fT ro e b m u N sN yn lC ica p fT ro e b m u

19.0 19.0

18.5 18.5

18.0 18.0 30 30 years yearsMean Mean No. No.of of T.C T.C..

1951-1980 1951-1980

1961-1990

1971-2000

1981-2010 2081-2010

19.8 19.8

20.2 20.2

19.5

18.8


Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines

*

Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.


Trends in the Extreme Rainfall Intensity Philippines* (1951 – 2008) o In most parts of the country, the intensity of rainfall is increasing but not all are statistically significant. o Only in Baguio, Tacloban and Iloilo shows statistically significant increase in rainfall intensity.


Trends in the Frequency of Extreme Daily Rainfall in the Philippines* (1951 – 2008)

oMost parts of the country are generally increasing in trend but not all are significant. oOnly in Calapan, Laoag, Iloilo and Tacloban shows statistically significant increasing trend. oWhile significantly decreasing trend is found in Palawan.


Above +2ºC impacts will be large 0°C Food

Water

1°C

2°C

3°C

4°C

5°C

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Falling yields in many Possible rising yields in developed regions some high latitude regions Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Ecosystems Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Rising number of species face extinction

Extreme Weather EventsRising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system


DEVELOPING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO FOR THE PHILIPPINES


Why do we need climate scenarios?

To provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies;

To aid in strategic planning and/or policy formation;

To structure our knowledge (or ignorance) of the future;

Since precise forecasts of future climate is not possible, an alternative approach is to construct Climate Scenarios.

1A.48


Downscaling Process of generating higher resolution data or climate change information from relatively coarse resolution GCMs relevant for adaptation and policy


What is downscaling and why do we need to downscale? Because there is a mismatch of scales between what climate models can supply and what environmental impact models require.

Prepared by Elaine Barrow, CCIS Project

Point

Global Climate Models supply...

1m

10km

50km

300km

Impact models require ...


Representation of the Philippines in different model resolution

25 km

50 km

300 km


Emission Scenarios Storyline A1

A2 B1 B2

Description Very rapid economic growth; population peaks mid-century; social, cultural and economic convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate. Subdivisions: A1FI – reliance on fossil fuels; A1T – reliance on non-fossil fuels; A1B – a balance across all fuel sources Self-reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing population; economic growth on regional scales Clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability; improved equity; population peaks mid-century Local solutions to sustainability; continuously increasing population at a lower rate than in A2; less rapid technological change than in B1 and A1


Climate Projection for the Philippines (2020,2050 & 2100)


Projected Change in annual mean temperature Medium-range Emission A1B Scenario


Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)

Dry seasons becoming drier. Wet seasons becoming wetter.

Medium-range Emission Scenario 2020

2050

Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF)

-0.4 to 54.3 %

-0.1 to-25.1-%

Mar-Apr-May (MAM)

-0.2 to -33.3%

-1.4 to -39.8%

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA)

-0.4 to 43.1%

-0.7 to 72.5%

Sep-Oct-Nov (SON)

-0.4 to 30.0%

-0.5 to 39.0%


Frequency of Extreme Rainfall

Heavy daily rainfall (exceeding 300mm) events will continue to increase in number in Luzon, Visayas & eastern sections of the country.


Frequency of Extreme Temperature hot temperatures (indicated by the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 째C) will continue to become more frequent.


Climate Change in the Philippines


Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in Region I The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in Region 1 are presented in Table a, Table b and Table c, respectively. To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in 2020 and 2050 in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values (presented in each of the tables). For example, in Pangasinan, the projected values in 2020 are: •DJF mean temperature = (25.0 °C + 0.9 °C) = 25.9 °C; •DJF rainfall = {19.4mm+19.4(54.3%)mm} = (19.4+10.5)mm or 29.9mm; •number of days with Tmax > 35 °C in Dagupan City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 2,265; •number of dry days in Dagupan City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 6,443; and •number of days with rainfall > 300mm in Dagupan City during the 20062035 period (centered at 2020) =13.


Table b: Seasonal rainfall change (in %) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in Region 1

Table a: Seasonal temperature increases (in oC) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in Region I OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-2000)

CHANGE in 2020 (2006-2035)

CHANGE in 2050 (2036-2065)

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

ILOCOS NORTE

25.3

28.1

28.3

27.4

0.8

1.0

0.8

0.9

2.1

2.2

1.7

1.8

ILOCOS SUR

23.1

25.7

25.4

24.8

0.9

1.1

0.8

1.0

2.0

2.1

1.6

1.8

LA UNION

20.5

22.9

22.8

22.2

0.9

1.1

0.7

1.0

2.0

2.1

1.6

1.8

PANGASINAN

25.0

27.4

26.9

26.4

0.9

1.1

0.9

1.0

2.2

2.2

1.8

2.0

Region 1

Table b: Seasonal rainfall change (in %) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in Region I OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-2000) mm

CHANGE in 2020 (2006-2035)

CHANGE in 2050 (2036-2065)

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

ILOCOS NORTE

49.8

185.5

1106.4

595.4

4.4

-3.1

18.0

5.8

-18.8

-31.3

20.9

4.7

ILOCOS SUR

17.5

288.8

1575.4

672.9

-4.6

-2.0

36.3

23.0

-0.1

-27.6

58.1

33.3

LA UNION

14.7

395.6

1852.3

837.8

-0.4

4.5

43.1

30.0

-1.1

-24.6

72.5

39.0

PANGASINAN

19.4

298.0

1608.9

707.8

54.3

-6.0

6.1

5.9

1.1

-11.2

22.9

11.9

Region 1


Table c: Frequency of extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in Region I

Provinces

Stations

No. of Days w/ Tmax >35 째C

No. of Dry Days

No. of Days w/ Rainfall >300mm

OBS (1971-2000)

2020

2050

OBS

2020

2050

OBS

2020

2050

ILOCOS NORTE

Laoag

801

1677

3157

9015

7391

7425

4

19

10

ILOCOS SUR

Vigan

110

130

627

8728

8105

7939

1

17

6

PANGASINAN

Dagupan

1280

2265

3728

8303

6443

6419

2

13

20


Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in CAR (Cordillera Administrative Region) The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in CAR are presented in Table a, Table b and Table c, respectively. To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in 2020 and 2050 in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values (presented in each of the tables). For example, in Benguet, the projected values in 2020 are: DJF mean temperature in 2020 = (19.4 C+1.0 C) = 20.4 째C; DJF rainfall = {47.7mm+47.7(8.0%)mm} = (47.7+3.8)mm or 51.5mm; no. of days with Tmax > 35 C in Baguio City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 0; no. of dry days in Baguio City during the 2006-2035 period(centered at 2020) = 5,320; and no. of days with rainfall > 300mm in Baguio City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 39.


Table a: Seasonal temperature increases (in 째C) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in CAR

CAR ABRA APAYAO BENGUET IFUGAO KALINGA MOUNTAIN PROVINCE

OBSERVED BASELINE (19712000) DJF MAM JJA SON

CHANGE in 2020 (20062035) DJF MAM JJA SON

CHANGE in 2050 (20362065) DJF MAM JJA SON

24.5 24.8 19.4 22.2 23.8

27.4 28.0 21.9 25.6 27.5

27.2 28.4 22.0 25.8 27.7

26.4 27.1 21.2 24.5 26.1

0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8

1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9

0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9

0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8

2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9

2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

1.6 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.0

1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9

22.7

26.0

26.1

24.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.9

2.1

1.9

1.9

Table b: Seasonal rainfall change (in %) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in CAR OBSERVED BASELINE (19712000) mm DJF MAM JJA SON

CAR ABRA APAYAO BENGUET IFUGAO KALINGA MOUNTAIN PROVINCE

CHANGE in 2020 (20062035) DJF MAM JJA SON

CHANGE in 2050 (20362065) DJF MAM JJA SON

43.5 144.6 47.7 102.6 92.3

220.6 1218.9 634.4 184.0 822.7 720.1 422.3 1734.9 931.8 321.0 1071.1 724.9 228.0 892.3 691.9

5.0 2.6 8.0 -6.0 1.0

-1.8 0.4 0.2 -9.6 -9.1

22.3 5.8 31.6 14.4 4.5

14.0 16.6 21.7 8.9 14.8

-2.1 3.0 -6.0 -1.3 4.2

-28.1 -23.7 -26.7 -24.2 -21.0

35.0 1.1 63.1 17.6 3.9

15.9 -0.3 21.8 -2.9 1.1

74.8

286.8 1121.1 699.2

-2.7

-7.7

16.4

14.9

1.1

-27.4

26.6

8.5


Table c: Frequency of extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in CAR

Provinces

BENGUET

Stations

Baguio City

No. of Days w/ Tmax >35 째C OBS (19712000) 2020 2050 0

0

0

No. of Dry Days

No. of Days w/ Rainfall >300mm

OBS

2020

2050

OBS

2020

20 50

7248

5320

5379

29

39

35


CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES

STATION: BAGUIO CITY YEAR: AS OF 2011

Lat: 16o24'36"N

TEMPERATURE (oC) MONTH JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

HIGH 29.7 28.7 30.4 30.0 29.4 28.7 27.9 27.7 28.0 27.7 28.2 28.2

ANNUAL 30.4 Period of Record

DATE 01-31-1978 02-10-1978 03-15-1988 04-12-2010 05-09-2003 06-03-1991 07-04-1983 08-30-1988 09-04-1981 10-08-1980 11-19-1987 12-28-1929

LOW 6.3 6.7 7.4 10.0 7.7 11.8 12.5 12.8 12.6 11.3 9.2 7.6

03-15-1988 6.3 1909 - 2011

DATE 01-18-1961 02-01-1963 03-01-1963 04-01-1923 05-30-1989 06-20-2004 07-08-1925 08-12-1936 09-01-1990 10-26-1913 11-30-1989 12-13-1991

GREATEST DAILY RAINFALL (MM) AMOUN T DATE SPD 107.4 01-25-2006 20 58.4 02-26-2008 15 80.6 03-27-2001 17 147.7 04-08-1967 25 730.3 05-15-1980 30 538.4 06-29-2004 35 1085.8 07-04-2001 47 969.8 08-04-2008 31 799.8 09-27-1911 38 994.6 10-14-1998 41 698.7 11-05-1980 41 148.8 12-04-1936 30

01-18-1961 1085.8 07-04-2001 1902 - 2011

47

HIGHEST WIND (MPS) DIR DATE SE 01-25-1975 ESE 02-13-1974 ESE 03-28-1996 SW 04-25-1976 ESE 05-17-2008 WNW 06-26-1993 SE 07-20-1974 S 08-07-1964 S 09-11-1970 WNW 10-27-1974 SE 11-04-1967 SSE 12-02-2004 SE

Long: 120o36'00"E

SEA LEVEL PRESSURES (MBS) HIGH 1021.7 1020.6 1019.6 1018.0 1014.0 1014.0 1012.8 1014.0 1013.8 1015.8 1018.2 1019.7

DATE 01-18-1959 02-01-1962 03-07-2006 04-05-1998 05-02-1978 06-27-1993 07-12-1979 08-18-1963 09-28-1982 10-26-2008 11-30-1978 12-19-1994

LOW 1001.9 1002.3 1000.6 992.4 987.8 985.9 981.0 985.3 980.1 978.9 978.4 974.1

DATE 01-01-1950 02-07-1985 03-05-1999 04-21-1956 05-23-1976 06-10-1974 07-04-2001 08-06-1964 09-27-2011 10-24-1988 11-08-1954 12-14-1964

07-20-1974 1021.7 01-18-1959 974.1 12-14-1964

1950 - 2011

1949 - 2011


Responses to Climate Change

67


What can you do to help solve the problem?


Mitigation Actions


Mitigation An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Adaptation Practical steps to protect countries and communities from the likely disruption and damage that will result from effects of climate change

70


Mitigation Actions


Mitigation Actions


Adaptation Measures

AGRICULTURE Improve water use efficiency AGRICULTURE Design standards and regulations

a

WATER RESOURCE Design standards and regulations


PAGASA-DOST ADAPTATION MEASURES

STRATEGIES/MEASURES UPGRADING CAPABILITIES TO ANTICIPATE CHANGES IN WEATHER (FORECASTING) & IMPROVE CLIMATE PROFILE (DATA BASE)


PAGASA’s Response Enhancement of Observing systems and monitoring facilities for early warning system

Activities • Upgrading of surveillance radars/ Establishment of Doppler Radar • Upgrading of Satellite Facilities (NOAA, MTSAT) • Acquisition of MODIS Satellite • Upgrading of Upper Air Stations • Buoys, wind profilers, AWS


Strategies in the Design of a Flood Early Warning System


CC adaptation requires an understanding of vulnerabilities and impacts

77


Adaptation means pro-active planning for a range of possible future scenarios

78



Climate Trends and CC Projections- LA UNION (OCT 25, 2012)