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Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007) By Mr. Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul Assistant Governor - Planning Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT)

Presented to

High Level Forum on Lao-Thai Partnership in Sustainable Hydropower Development

7 September 2007 Shangri-La Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand


Contents z

Introduction

z

Present Status of Thailand Power System

z

Assumptions of PDP 2007

z

Thailand Power Development Plan

z

Thailand – Lao PDR Collaboration

z

Conclusion


Introduction


What is a Power Development Plan? An optimum plan to indicate new power plants with appropriate sizes and types at appropriate time to serve the increasing demand in the next 10-15 years adequately. กําลังผลิต (MW)

รฟ.ใหม

รฟ.ใหม

รฟ.ใหม

รฟ.ใหม

กําลังผลิตสํารอง

กําลังผลิตติดตั้ง (ปจจุบน ั ) 2,7115.203 MW

20XX

20XX

ฟ ารไฟ  งก อ ต ม า ว

20XX

า

20XX

ป


Objectives of Power Development Plans • Optimum Plan • System Reliability and Quality • Environmental Impact


Key Inputs for Developing PDP z z z z z z z

Existing System Information Long Term Power Demand Forecast Fuel Prices Schedules of Power Plant Retirement Candidate Power Plants National Energy Policy Planning Criteria


Present Status of Thailand Power System


Installed Capacity – by Power Plant Types Gas Turbine and Diesel

972.4 MW

Hydro 3,764.2 MW

3.4 %

13.2 %

EGAT-TNB

300 MW Combined Cycle 13,539.9 MW

47.5 %

1.1 % Thermal 9,666.6 MW

Renewable Energy

33.9 %

1.0 %

279.3 MW

Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007) 28,522.5 MW Peak Demand (24 April 2007)

22,586.1 MW


Installed Capacity – by Producers IPPs, SPPs, VSPPs, Lao PDR, and Malaysia

12,727.9 MW

45% EGAT 15,794.6 MW

55 %

Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007) 28,522.5 MW Peak Demand (24 April 2007)

22,586.1 MW


Energy Generation – by Fuel Type, Jan-Jul 2007 Renewable Resources 1.7% Imported Coal 9.0% Heavy Oil 2.0% Natural Gas 66.0%

Lignite 12.5% Hydro 7.2% EGAT-TNB 1.6%

Diesel 0.02%

Total Energy Generation and the Purchased 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)


Energy Generation – by Producers, Jan-Jul 2007 IPPs,SPPs,VSPPs, Purchase from Neighboring Countries

46,752 GWh 54.6 % EGAT 38,912 GWh 45.4%

Total Energy Generation and the Purchased 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)


Daily Peak Load: March – May 2007 22,586 MW

MW

24,000

on 24 April 2007 at 2:30 p.m. Increased from April 2006 by 10.01%

22,161 MW

Increased from March 2006 by 6.83%

23,000

21,234 MW

Increased from May 2006 by 0.81%

21,064 MW 4 May 2006 at 1:30 p.m.

22,000 2007

21,000 20,000

2006

19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000

March

April

May

Reserve Margin

Reserve Margin

Reserve Margin

2006

= 24.11%

2006

= 25.28%

2006

= 22.10%

2007

= 22.91%

2007

= 20.44%

2007

= 31.48%

14,000 Sun

Sun

Sun

Sun

Sun

Sun

Sun

Day

Sun

Sun

Sun

Sun

Sun

Sun

Sun


Transmission Systems

Theun Hinboun Nam Ngum 230 kV 115 kV Thakek 22 kV

Northern

(As of April 2007)

z

– – – –

z

z

Northeastern

Total High Voltage Transmission Line Length: 30,098 circuit-km –

500 kV – 3,433 circuit-km 230 kV – 12,795 circuit-km 132 kV – 9 circuit-km 115 kV – 13,792 circuit-km 69 kV – 46 circuit-km

Total High Voltage Substation: 205 Substations Transformers: 66,316 MVA

Suwannakhet 115 kV

230 kV

Xe Xet 115 kV

230 & 500 kV

Central

115 & 230 kV

Metropolitan 115 & 230 kV

Southern EGAT - TNB 115 & 132 kV

Huay Ho 230 kV


Assumptions of PDP 2007


Power Demand Forecast (Prepared by the Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee)

Assumptions: z Use actual power demand of 2006 as the base year z Use estimated GDP growth rate provided by the NESDB for Base case, GDP –0.5% for Low case, and GDP +0.5% for High case – – –

Average GDP growth rate of 2007–2011 Average GDP growth rate of 2012–2016 Average GDP growth rate of 2017–2021

NESDB = National Economic and Social Development Board NESDP = National Economic and Social Development Plan

(the 10th NESDP) (the 11th NESDP) (the 12th NESDP)

is 5.0%. is 5.6%. is 5.6%.


Long Term Load Forecast March 2007: Base Case Peak Demand Year

MW

Energy

Increase MW

%

GWh

Load

Increase GWh

Factor %

%

Actual 2003

18,121

1 ,4 4 0

8 .6 3

118,374

7 ,0 7 4

6 .3 6

7 4 .5 7

2004

19,326 20,538

1 ,2 0 4

6 .6 5

9 ,0 8 3

7 .6 7

7 5 .0 8

1,212

127,457 134,827 141,948

7,370 7,121

5.78 5.28

74.94 76.93

21,064

527

6.27 2.56

22,513 23,957

1,449 1,444

6.88 6.41

150,665 158,994

8,717 8,329

6.14 5.53

76.40 75.76

25,225 26,635

1,268 1,410

5.29 5.59

167,947 177,285

8,953 9,338

5.63 5.56

76.00 75.98

27,996 29,625

1,361 1,629

5.11 5.82

185,926 196,723

8,641 10,797

4.87 5.81

75.81 75.80

31,384 33,216

1,759 1,832

5.94 5.84

208,478 220,759

11,755 12,281

5.98 5.89

75.83 75.87

35,251 37,382

2,035 2,131

6.13 6.05

234,375 248,575

13,616 14,200

6.17 6.06

75.90 75.91

39,560 41,795

2,178 2,235

5.83 5.65

263,076 278,021

14,501 14,945

5.83 5.68

75.91 75.94

2020

44,082 46,481

2,287 2,399

5.47 5.44

293,257 309,236

15,236 15,979

5.48 5.45

75.94 75.95

2021

48,958

2,477

5.33

325,697

16,461

5.32

75.94

2005 2006 Forecast 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Fuel Price Type

Forecasted by

Natural Gas

PTT

Fuel Oil

PTT

Diesel

PTT

Lignite

EGAT

Imported Coal

EGAT

Nuclear

Ux Consulting Company


Power Plant Retirement Schedule Year

EGAT Power Plant (MW)

IPPs/SPPs (MW)

Total (MW)

2007-2015

2,102

1,307

3,409

2016-2021

2,831

1,449

4,280

4,933

2,756

7,689

Total


Candidate Power Plant 700 MW Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plant 700 MW Gas-Fired Combined Cycle Power Plant 230 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant 1,000 MW Nuclear Power Plant


National Energy Policy Increased power import from neighboring countries during 2011-2021 Power Purchase from SPP, VSPP 1,700 MW additional power purchased from SPPs during 2012-2020 (to make 4,000 MW in total of the purchased from SPPs)

Fuel Diversification (Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Imported Hydro Power)


Possible Power Import from Neighboring Countries

Country

MW

Laos

5,000

China

3,000

Myanmar

8,200

Total

16,200


Planning Criteria System Reliability – –

Minimum Reserve Margin : 15% Maximum LOLP : 24 Hours/Year

Efficiency Improvement –

EGAT Power Plant Enhancement (CHP)


Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007)


Various Scenarios PDPs were formulated in 3 scenarios for each load forecast. Totally, there are 9 scenarios as followings. Load Forecast : Base Case (B) Plan B1 : Least Cost Plan Plan B2 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power Plants Plan B3 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power Plants, 10 MTPA LNG Limitation and More Power Import from Neighboring Countries Load Forecast : Low Case (L) Plan L1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3) Load Forecast : High Case (H) Plan H1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3)


Ongoing Power Plant Projects (2007 – 2010) Year 2007

Power Plant Projects SPPs Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # 1 Total Annual Increase

Private

-

1,428

751

2,173

1,550

1,008

976

-

734 1,428 38

SPPs

39 3

Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant

710

Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # 2

734

Ratchburi Power Co., Ltd. # 1-2 Total Annual Increase South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 2 (CHP) Small Hydro (RPS) SPPs

2x700 2,924 74 45.7 88

South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 3

715

Bang Pakong Combined Cycle # 5

715

Power Purchase from Laos (Nam Theun 2)

920

Total Annual Increase 2010

EGAT

673.25

South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 1 (CHP) Solar Energy, Wind Energy (RPS)

2009

Total 20.3

BLCP Power Co., Ltd. # 2

2008

Additional Capacity (MW)

2,558

Wangnoi Combined Cycle # 1-3 (CHP)

243

North Bangkok Combined Cycle # 1

700

Small Hydro (RPS) Total Annual Increase

33 976


Ongoing Transmission System Projects (2007–2010) Year 2007

Transmission System Projects Upgrading of the 115 kV Central-Southern Regions tie line to 230 kV Project Transmission System Expansion Project - Phase 10 (2007 -2008) Transmission System for Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant Project

2008

Transmission System for South Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 3 Transmission System for Bang Pakong Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 5 Transmission System Project for Power Purchased from Nam Theun 2 Hydro Power Plant Transmission System Expansion Projects for the Greater Bangkok Area and Vicinity - Phase 2 (2008-2010)

2009

Transmission System for North Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 1

2010

500 kV Transmission System Project for IPPs Power Plants 500 kV Transmission System for Power Purchased from Nam Ngum 2 Hydroelctric Project


PDP 2007 (Recommended Plan) New Domestic Capacity Gas

Coal

Nuclear

SPP

Power Import

2011

-

-

-

-

597

597

34,037

27,996

18.0

2012

1,400

-

-

200

220

1,820

35,857

29,625

17.4

2013

1,400

-

-

200

963

2,563

37,800

31,384

16.5

2014

1,400

700

-

200

261

2,561

40,361

33,216

17.7

2015

1,400

1,400

-

200

-

3,000

42,186

35,251

16.1

Total

5,600

2,100

-

800

2,041

10,541

2016

1,400

700

-

200

390

2,690

44,127

37,382

16.4

2017

2,800

-

-

200

500

3,500

47,119

39,560

15.6

2018

2,800

-

-

200

510

3,510

49,888

41,795

15.6

2019

3,500

-

-

200

530

4,230

52,829

44,082

16.5

2020

1,400

-

2,000

100

550

4,050

55,251

46,481

16.7

2021

700

-

2,000

570

3,270

58,321

48,958

15.4

Year

Increasing Capacity

Total

12,600

700

4,000

900

3,050

21,250

Grand Total

18,200

2,800

4,000

1,700

5,091

31,791

-

Total Peak Capacity Demand

Reserve Margin (%)


PDP 2007 (Alternative Plan) New Domestic Capacity Gas

Coal

Nuclear

SPP

Power Import

2011

-

-

-

-

597

597

34,037

27,996

18.0

2012

1,400

-

-

200

220

1,820

35,857

29,625

17.4

2013

1,400

-

-

200

963

2,563

37,800

31,384

16.5

2014

1,400

700

-

200

261

2,561

40,361

33,216

17.7

2015

1,400

1,400

-

200

-

3,000

42,186

35,251

16.1

Total

5,600

2,100

-

800

2,041

10,541

2016

1,400

700

-

200

390

2,690

44,127

37,382

16.4

2017

1,400

-

-

200

1,900

3,500

47,119

39,560

15.6

2018

1,400

-

-

200

1,910

3,510

49,888

41,795

15.6

2019

-

-

-

200

4,030

4,230

52,829

44,082

16.5

2020

-

-

2,000

100

1,950

4,050

55,251

46,481

16.7

2021

-

-

2,000

1,270

3,270

58,321

48,958

15.4

Year

Increasing Capacity

Total

4,200

700

4,000

900

11,450

21,250

Grand Total

9,800

2,800

4,000

1,700

13,491

31,791

-

Total Peak Capacity Demand

Reserve Margin (%)


Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Recommended Plan) 340,000 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000

220,000 200,000

160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000

69%

75%

7% 10%

6% 9%

75%

73%

6% 8%

8% 8%

69%

70%

71%

72%

9%

8%

9% 5%

9%

73%

69%

65%

11% 6%

10% 6%

10% 5%

8%

8%

8%

8%

8%

8%

6%

6%

180,000

80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000

13% 7%

12% 7%

12% 6%

12% 6%

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

Year

20 17

20 16

20 15

20 14

20 13

20 12

0

20 11

GWh

240,000

Imported Power Nuclear Renewable Energy Diesel Heavy Oil Natural Gas Imported Coal Lignite Hydro (Domestic)


Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Alternative Plan) 340,000 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000

Imported Power Nuclear Renewable Energy Diesel Heavy Oil Natural Gas Imported Coal Lignite Hydro (Domestic)

6%

180,000

8%

8%

8%

6%

8%

12%

16%

24%

27%

28%

5%

9%

160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000

69%

75%

7% 10%

6% 9%

75%

73%

6% 8%

8% 8%

70%

69%

67%

64%

57%

50%

46%

13% 7%

12%

12%

6%

6%

11% 6%

10% 6%

10% 5%

80,000

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

20 16

20 12

20 11

0

12% 7% 20 15

20,000

20 14

40,000

20 13

60,000


Thailand – Lao PDR Collaboration


Power Purchased from Lao PDR Year

Projects

Capacity (MW)

Status

1998

Theun Hinboun

214

Commissioned

1999

Huay Ho

126

Commissioned

2009

Nam Theun 2

920

PPA signed, Under construction

2011

Nam Ngum 2

597

PPA signed, Under construction

2012

Theun Hinboun (Extended)

220

Draft Tariff MOU completed, to be signed within 2007

2013

Nam Ngum 3

440

PPA to be signed within 2007

Nam Theun 1

523

PPA to be signed within 2007

Nam Ngiep 1

261

Tariff MOU signed on June 13, 2007

2014

Total

3,301

Noted: The Royal Thai Government and the Laos Government have signed the MOU, on 18 December 2006, stating that Thailand will increase the imported capacity from 3,000 MW to 5,000 MW from Laos.


Thailand – Lao PDR Interconnection

Existing

Future Projects 500 kV Transmission Line 230 kV Transmission Line 115 kV Transmission Line


Conclusion


Conclusion : Long Term PDP PDP was formulated based on available current information. Once this information is updated and/or new national policy on energy is applied, PDP is also reformulated. This probably changes the results in the number of future power plants and their fuel requirement. PDP is therefore ‘A Rolling Plan’.


Thank You...


Fuel Price Ye ar

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

M arginal Natural G as for Ne w Plants

2% Sulfur He av y O il

Die se l

Lignite

Importe d Coal

Nucle ar

(T HB/M M BT U)

(T HB /M M B T U)

(T H B/M M BT U)

(T H B/M M B T U)

326

619

53.1 53.1

90.1 90.6

24.7 24.7

53.9 55.2

89.8 89.7

24.7 24.7

57.0 58.9

88.6 89.1

24.7 24.7

60.7 62.6

89.6 90.1

24.7 24.7

63.7 65.7

90.6 91.2

24.7 24.7

68.2 72.4

91.7 92.2

24.7 24.7

92.7 93.3

24.7 24.7

93.8

24.7

2007 2008

326

619

2009

326

619

2010 2011

222

326

619

326

619

2012

246

326

619

2013

244

326

619

2014

246

326

619

2015

246

326

619

2016

248

326

619

2017

249

326

619

2018

251

326

619

2019

253

326

619

2020

254

326

619

74.7 76.3

2021

255

326

619

78.1

(T HB/M M BT U) (T HB/M M BT U)

Exchange Rate : 37 THB/USD Note : (1–3) Data from PTT, 31 January 2007 (at crude price 55 USD/BBL) : (4) Data from EGAT : (5) 2008-2011 FOB forecast from ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics), average transportation cost 15 USD/Ton : (6) Ux Consulting Company, 21 February 2007


hydropower_presentation  

By Mr. Prutichai ChonglertvanichkulMr.PrutichaiChonglertvanichkul Assistant Governor -Planning Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand...

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