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2018

janet

THE MARKET

mc afee R E A L E S TAT E

A MIDYEAR REPORT ON HOUSING ACTIVIT Y AND PRICE LEVELS IN THE SAINT LOUIS MARKET


THE MARKET Saint Louis Market Overview

Residential

St. Louis County

St. Charles County St. Louis City

All MLS*

Condominium

St. Louis County

St. Charles County St. Louis City

All MLS*

2018 YTD

% Change

6,532

-2%

Closed Sales vs. 2017 YTD

2018 YTD

% Change

2018 YTD

% Change

$200,000

6%

9,692

-1%

Median Price vs. 2017 YTD New Listings vs. 2017 YTD

06/2018

Inventory 2.01 Mos.

3,009

-1%

$232,500

3%

4,238

-5%

1.90 Mos.

20,937

0%

$161,900

-5%

31,388

-3%

2.71 Mos.

7%

1,277

-7%

1,588

996

515

304

1,959

-3%

-3%

$150,800

$143,250

1%

$150,000

0%

$149,900

8%

$174,950

6%

1%

-1% 5%

2,410

657

477

2,646

0%

2.01 Mos.

1.36 Mos.

4%

1.00 Mos.

-3%

1.72 Mos.

-4%

3.57 Mos.

We are often asked, “How’s the market?” As our readers know, there are many “markets” or segments we follow. First, we begin with the big picture: the All MLS segment which covers 58 counties across two states. Within that market are the more densely populated St. Louis County, St. Charles County, and the City of St. Louis segments. Drilling down, we also review the fourteen central corridor communities we followed for years. We summarize the $1+ Million Dollar luxury market on the back page. The point is all markets are different. Even the condo/villa sub-segments are uniquely diverse in terms of scale and activity levels. And this year, the results are not consistent across the many sectors. For example, the $1+ Million Dollar luxury housing market reached five-year highs in both new listing and sales activity levels.

This report is a “market snapshot” which reflects the first six months of housing activity. The dataset is small and year-over-year variances may be distorted due to the attributes of the housing stock and the timing of activity levels. Given the seasonality of our local housing market, some may look at the first six months of the year as the harbinger for the full year. We find our market is generally “mean reverting” which suggests future activity may temper or offset the variances we see today in the individual market metrics. Only time will tell.

We believe full-year 2018 will be average in terms of housing activity levels. Positive economic news, low interest rates, low inventory levels, and modest housing price inflation should contribute to stable housing demand for wellpriced homes in good condition within St. Louis County, St. Charles County, and St. Louis City. To see above average sales growth, we simply need more homes to sell. New listings drive market activity and performance. Look for our comprehensive annual report on St. Louis housing activity and price levels in January 2019. *All MLS includes 58 counties in two states which report to our Regional MLS Service.


Select St. Louis Central Corridor School Districts

Residential

School District

Condominiums

Change

2018 YTD

Change

2018 YTD

in Units

2017 YTD

Sales Price

2017 YTD

Sold DOM

Brentwood Central West End Clayton Kirkwood Ladue Lafayette Maplewood/RH Marquette Parkway Central Parkway North Parkway South Parkway West University City Webster Groves Central West End Clayton Parkway Central Parkway North

160 70 89 93 59

4% 16% -20% 2% 14%

$193,250 $295,000 $190,000 $143,888 $141,000

-13% -14% -19% 15% 2%

25 16 43 18 12

Parkway South

69 64 69 343 202 222 122 285 177 220 249 194 272 305

vs.

1% -27% 13% 6% -14% 14% 18% 12% 5% 3% -15% -13% 7% -11%

Median

$253,000 $294,000 $717,500 $385,000 $682,000 $435,125 $197,250 $359,000 $355,000 $249,950 $255,000 $347,000 $247,000 $257,500

vs.

2% -12% 2% 3% 11% 8% -1% 14% -2% 5% 2% 3% -10% 5%

Months Of

9 18 7 11 23 17 9 16 26 15 11 10 11 7

1.79 9.89 2.36 1.28 3.10 4.04 0.74 3.15 3.45 1.42 1.79 2.36 1.83 1.22

Residential Experience in the Central Corridor School Districts* Category

Sales (Units)

Median Price New Listings

Median DOM**

June Inventory (Mos)

2018 YTD

2017 YTD

2016 YTD

2015 YTD

2014 YTD

$328,000 4,385

$313,000 4,390

$300,000 4,470

$276,500 4,395

$273,000 3,964

2.20

2.11

2.06

2.08

2.53

2,793 12

2,786 13

* Residental detail only. Does not include condominium data. ** DOM is Days on Market

2,827 15

2,697 17

06/2018

Median

2,387 41

Inventory

2.41 2.27 1.31 0.65 0.45

All data obtained from the Mid America Regional Information Service.

2018 YTD

Closed Sales


LUXURY MARKET The Luxury Market We are encouraged by the trends in the luxury home segment of the market during the first six months of 2018. Sales of $1+ Million residential homes during the period were 6.5% higher than the same period last year and continue the upward trend from 2014. Sales of $1+ Million condominiums continue to remain a very small subset of the overall luxury market (6%) and we exclude their results in our analysis.

Janet McAfee Scorecard Thank you for making the first six months of 2018 a wonderful start. Our dedicated agents helped Janet McAfee remain a recognized local leader. From January through June, we closed 281 residential properties with prices ranging from $29,000 to $3.779 million. Our average sales price of $502,648 remains among the highest in the Saint Louis Central Corridor.

The major stories in the residential luxury market are new listings which reached a five year high and median days on market which fell to the lowest level in the past five years. The higher level of sales helped to slightly reduce inventory levels versus last year. The last two years of sales-price-to-original list price ratios suggest sellers of well-priced luxury homes are not required to absorb large discounts in order to sell. Long dated listings may not be so fortunate.

Looking forward to the final six months of 2018, we remain optimistic about luxury market momentum. We enjoy positive news about economic conditions, the equity and capital markets, and mortgage interest rates. Factoring in the seasonal slow down in luxury housing activity levels during the third and fourth quarter of the year, achieving 200 annual units (the 5 year historical average) will be a challenge without increased buyer demand. We will continue to monitor luxury market performance and report our findings at year end.

Luxury Residential Experience in the Central Corridor

f

LUXURY

PORT OLIO I N T E R N aT I O N a L

Category

Sales (Units)

Median DOM* New Listings

June Inventory (Mos) SP:OLP**

2018 YTD

2017 YTD

2016 YTD

2015 YTD

2014 YTD

32 341

40 291

36 277

43 243

69 225

114

7.84

94.4%

107

8.00

95.0%

98

6.24

93.5%

* DOM is Days on Market ** SP:OLP is the ratio of selling price to the original list price.

janet mcafee inc. I 9889 clayton road I saint louis, missouri 63124 314.997.4800 I www.janetmcafee.com

If your home is currently listed for sale, please be advised this report is not a listing solicitation.

87

6.76

93.3%

85

6.19

92.5%

2018 MidYear Market Report  
2018 MidYear Market Report