Page 1

2016

janet

THE MARKET

mc afee R E A L E S TAT E

AN ANNUAL REPORT ON HOUSING ACTIVIT Y AND PRICE LEVELS IN THE SAINT LOUIS MARKET


THE MARKET Saint Louis Market Overview

Residential

St. Louis County

St. Charles County

St. Louis City All MLS*

Condominium

St. Louis County

St. Charles County

St. Louis City All MLS*

2016

% Change

vs. 2015

Median Price

2016

% Change

2016

% Change vs. 2015

Inventory

13,358

8%

$187,000

4%

17,998

1%

3 Mos.

5%

4,499

Closed Sales 6,295

3,164

42,059 2,082

989

481

3,934

vs. 2015 New Listings

8%

$211,375

6%

7%

$159,100

6%

4%

6%

$135,000

$130,000

0%

7,734

58,526

2,541

12/2016

4%

2 Mos.

-1%

4 Mos.

-4%

-1%

3 Mos.

2 Mos.

4%

$135,000

2%

1,139

-1%

1 Mos.

3%

$135,000

1%

4,931

-5%

2 Mos.

1%

$174,700

4%

790

6%

5 Mos.

Residential/Condominium Sales In 2016, residential unit sales increased 7% versus last year within the entire MLS, which includes the broader area of Eastern Missouri and Southern Illinois. St. Louis County, which makes up 32% of the MLS, recorded an 8% year-over-year increase in residential sales. Condominium unit sales within the entire MLS posted a 3% year-over-year gain. MLS residential sales reached a decade high and MLS condominium sales fell a few units short of the 2007 decade high. Median Price Levels Residential median prices across the MLS increased 6% on a year-over-year basis and achieved the decade high. Median condominium prices across the entire MLS increased slightly over 2015 levels but remain below the 2007 decade high of $150,000. New Listing Activity Across the MLS, the number of new residential and condominium listings both declined from 2015 levels. New MLS residential listings are signiďŹ cantly lower than the 2007 decade high of 68,678 units and in 2016, new MLS condominium listings became the decade low. Inventory Levels Inventory levels have reached or equaled decade lows in all segments researched. In the largest residential segment, St. Louis County equaled the decade low for the fourth consecutive year. In the condominium segment, the 2016 St. Louis County inventory level is the decade low. Conclusion New listings continue to be the engine driving real estate activity. Sales gains, higher prices, and low inventory levels are essentially derivatives of listing activity. By virtually every measurement, 2016 was the best market in the past decade. We remain cautiously optimistic that 2017 will be another positive year for housing as favorable economic and employment news, improved buyer conďŹ dence, and attractive interest rates will contribute to buyers taking action. Expect a 2017 midyear market snapshot to update you on St. Louis housing activity and price levels. *All MLS includes 81 counties in two states which report data to our Regional MLS Service.


Select St. Louis Central Corridor School Districts Change

in Units

Brentwood Central West End Clayton Kirkwood Ladue Lafayette Maplewood/RH Marquette Parkway Central Parkway North Parkway South Parkway West University City Webster Groves Central West End Clayton Parkway Central Parkway North

Residential

School District

Condominiums

2016

Change

2015

Sales Price

118 166 131 682 479 461 214 584 353 422 581 469 478 668

-4% -7% 4% 4% 11% 1% 5% 2% 5% 2% 17% 11% 0% 1%

261 178 167 178

7% 1% -8% 8%

vs.

Median

vs.

2016

2015

Sold DOM

Months Of

$238,400 $286,250 $722,000 $322,950 $575,000 $380,000 $185,000 $335,000 $359,900 $229,350 $245,000 $335,000 $249,000 $233,000

7% -6% -9% 5% 3% 2% 11% 6% 5% 2% 8% 8% -6% 1%

12 49 13 17 33 31 8 16 20 22 10 12 23 12

1 4 3 2 4 5 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2

$212,500 $307,500 $270,000 $134,950

4% -14% 15% -2%

29 19 27 26

4 1 2 1

A Decade of Residential Home Experience in the Central Corridor1

Category

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12/2016

Median

2012

2013

2014

2015

Inventory

2016

Sales (Units) 4,883 4,283 4,070 3,942 4,035 4,702 5,296 5,088 5,525 5,806 Median Price ($) 279,825 265,000 240,000 255,000 245,000 250,000 269,125 276,250 285,000 300,000 Median DOM2 66 77 73 74 79 72 47 37 19 18 New Listings 9,240 7,781 7,325 7,639 7,065 6,915 7,165 7,110 7,670 7,863 Inventory (Mos) 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 SP:OLP (%) 95.2 93.3 92.8 92.6 91.9 93.5 95.7 96.4 96.7 96.9

Notes: 1 Residential only, condominiums/villas not included. 2 DOM is Days on Market 3 SP:OLP is the ratio of selling price to the original list price.

All data obtained from the Mid America Regional Information Service.

2016

Closed Sales


LUXURY MARKET The Luxury Market We are encouraged by the stability in the luxury home segment of the market for the past three years. Within the St. Louis central corridor, sales of $1+ million residential homes during 2016 fell 5 units short of 2015 and only 6 units short of the decade high. Sales of $1+ million condominiums and new luxury construction totaled 24 units in 2016 and equaled 2015 levels. Condominiums continue to remain a very small subset of the overall luxury market (11%). We exclude their results in our historical analysis below.

Janet McAfee Scorecard Thank you for making the 2016 a wonderful year. Our dedicated agents helped Janet McAfee Real Estate remain a recognized local leader. We closed 542 residential properties with prices ranging from $62,856 to $3.4 million. We sold 72 homes over $1,000,000. Our average contract price of $536,300 remains among the highest in the Central Corridor.

The major story in the residential luxury market is the increased level of new listings. Our research suggests two possible conclusions relating to the higher level of listings. The first conclusion is more listings may have influenced the slight increase in inventory levels and the slight reduction in the sales price to original list price ratio. The second conclusion is simply that the change in inventory level and the change in sales price to original list price may simply be due to working with such a small data set. With either conclusion, inventory levels are only one month higher than the decade low, days on market are generally the same as last year, and the positive trend in sales price to original list price since 2007 suggests sellers of well-priced luxury homes are currently not required to absorb large discounts in order to sell. Looking forward to 2017, we remain cautiously optimistic about continued luxury market momentum. We continue to enjoy positive news about improving economic conditions, continued strength in the equity and capital markets, relatively low inventory levels, and attractive mortgage interest rates. Absent a significant increase in buyer demand, luxury residential sales in the cental corridor may continue with slight annual variances going forward. We will continue to monitor luxury market performance and report our findings at 2017 midyear.

A Decade of Luxury Residential Home Experience in the Central Corridor1

Category

Sales (Units)

Median DOM New Listings

2

Inventory (Mos) SP:OLP3 (%)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

100

124

146

200

178

124

85

73

39

40

205 534 18

93.4

158 448 37

90.4

99

376 27

85.8

110 306 11

84.6

Notes: 1 Residential only, condominiums/villas not included. $1,000,000+ sales only. Cental corridor school districts listed on inside page.

110 308 14

84.2 2 3

152

161

199

204

199

329

311

343

401

457

89.1

91.4

92.6

93.6

93.4

13

6

7

6

7

DOM is Days on Market SP:OLP is the ratio of selling price to the original list price.

janet mcafee inc. I 9889 clayton road I saint louis, missouri 63124 I 314.997.4800 I www.janetmcafee.com If your home is currently listed for sale, pleased be advised this mailing is not a listing solicitation.

2016 Annual Market Report  
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