South Florida Real Estate Yearbook 2017 Edition With new sections on select Palm Beach and Miami-Dade County neighborhoods!
By James R. Oaksun MBA, GRI, BPOR Florida’s Real Estate GeekSM Broker-Owner New Realty Concepts, LLC 4849 N. Dixie Hwy. Suite 102 Fort Lauderdale, FL 33334 Mobile 954.822.0158 James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
South Florida Real Estate Yearbook 2017 Edition ©2017 New Realty Concepts, LLC and James Oaksun is Florida’s Real Estate GeekSM. All rights reserved. While the source of the base data herein is MLS, the analysis, charting and text are wholly my own and are not for sale. I am providing this analysis without charge or compensation for use by my clients, for other stakeholders, and by request. Accordingly, no part of this publication can be used in others’ marketing activities or reproduced without my express written permission, and if so used, attribution must be provided that acknowledges me and credits MLS for the base data.
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
Table of Contents Forward to the Third Edition
5
Broward County: Deerfield Beach Lighthouse Point Pompano Beach North Andrews Gardens Coral Ridge Isles/Knoll Ridge Imperial Point Coral Ridge CC/Landings Twin Lakes/Royal Palm Oakland Park Corals Wilton Manors Coral Ridge South Middle River Middle River Terrace/Lake Ridge Poinsettia Heights Inland Waterfront Victoria Park Las Olas Isles Rio Vista/Colee Hammock/Beverly Heights Harbor/Harbordale Hollywood Lakes
9-10 11-14 15-18 19-20 21 22 23-24 25 26 27-29 30-31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38-39 40-41 42-43
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
Table of Contents (cont’d) Palm Bach County: Lake Worth Delray Beach West Palm Beach
44-50 51-58 59-62
Miami-Dade County: El Portal Miami Shores (non waterfront) Biscayne Park (west) Surfside (non waterfront) Normandy Isle (non waterfront) Miami Shores/Surfside/Normandy Isle (waterfront)
63 64 65 66 67 68
Article: Fabulous? Or Basic?
69-70
About James Oaksun, Florida’s Real Estate GeekSM
71
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
Forward to the Third Edition Quick – name an asset class that will increase in value by a double-digit percentage, every year, with no decline, forever. I’ll wait a minute while you consider some options. Give up? Well, I admit it was something of a trick question. Because no such asset class exists, nor has existed since records have been kept. Not even single family homes in South Florida. Why do I say this in the Forward to my Third Annual Real Estate Yearbook? I am a real estate broker, after all. Shouldn’t I be saying buy buy buy, sell sell sell, trade up, move today? I try to be a good scout, after all. I’m involved in extensive Realtor Association committee work at the local level, and am a state director of Florida Realtors. And no, the Universe has not blessed me with the special crystal ball that is a guaranteed predictor of the future. No such device or ability exists. I know people who have predicted 40 of the last zero depressions, and have missed out on amazing opportunities as a result. Yet I write this with a great deal of trepidation. The real estate market in South Florida looks very different today than it did in 2011 (the market trough), 2013 (when I moved here), or 2015 (the first year of my Yearbook). This year I have expanded my coverage in the Yearbook to include select neighborhoods in both Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties. I have long had an interest in old Florida architecture (which for these parts means pre-World War Two). So, I included many neighborhoods where you will find a significant number of prewar homes. In addition, I have added general coverage of the entire city of Lake Worth, in Palm Beach County. In that city, there are not only a significant number of charming prewar homes, but also the general pricing levels make most of the city more accessible to first time single family home buyers than practically any other area in this region. In total among the three counties, I have analyzed pricing, sales and inventory trends in 60 distinct neighborhoods. Mind you, these are not zip codes (which are established for the convenience of the Postal Service and not for real estate evaluation). These are defined neighborhoods by the local municipalities, and by US Census tract, and thus a finer gradation than zip code and more meaningful to current and potential owners. Among the 60 neighborhoods, the median (half above, half below) rate of price change since the market trough, on a compounded basis, has been 10 percent per year. Consequently, the general pricing level in the median neighborhood is now approaching the levels achieved at the 2006-07 peak.
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
5
Of course, some neighborhoods have done even better than this (and some worse). But it explains why many single family homeowners here in South Florida have, at minimum, breathed a sigh of relief. And why many are ecstatic. For by this point, certainly in the neighborhoods I follow, even many of those who were unfortunate to have bought at or near the 2006-07 market peak, and held through the worst crash on record, can now, owing to the amortization of their mortgages, sell without bringing money to closing or asking the lender for concessions. Now, where do we go from here? I begin with these charts, using data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, showing pricing trends in south Florida over the very long term. I have also included, on a magnified basis, the portion of the chart from 2007 to the present. (Baseline year 1977 set to 100. I omitted Palm Beach because the Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach indexes are essentially the same.) 900
Fort Lauderdale and Miami Price Indexes
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
FtLaud
900
Miami
Fort Lauderdale and Miami Price Indexes Since 2007
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
FtLaud
Miami
Between 1999 and the peak in 2006-07, prices generally tripled here in south Florida – that’s an increase of more than 14 percent per year, every year, compounded. Then came the crash, with massive destruction of short term value. But then, a rebound – not as rapid as seen in the bubble, but a brisk improvement by historical standards. As I noted earlier, a compounded annual rate of increase of “only”10 percent.)
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
6
Still, in looking back at the very long term (40 years), you can see that, in general, real estate prices in South Florida have increased on an annual basis at about half a percent above the underlying rate of price inflation. (Meaning, if consumer prices increase by 10 percent, real estate would increase by 10.5 percent. And if consumer prices increase by one percent, real estate values should increase by 1.5 percent.) 800
Fort Lauderdale Price Index versus CPI+0.5%
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
CPI+0.5%
FtLaud
Consumer price inflation over the last six years has averaged about 1.7 percent per year. So in other words, annual price increases of about 2.2 percent (as opposed to 10) would be more in line with the historical standard. Can anyone claim to know when the party might end? Well, anyone who says they can, in the words of my career prosecutor brother, is “not providing accurate testimony.� There are times in the economic cycle, however, where a more careful and cautious approach is prudent. Special situations, identifying up-and-coming neighborhoods, properties where some investment in updating could produce an enhanced return, are all good strategies. Buying and planning to own property for the long term (more than 10 years) has both a forced savings component and (historically) has provided a good inflation hedge. We do know from a statistical perspective, for example, that there is generally a glut of single family home inventory at the $750k plus price point. And given the high inventories, the fact that some sales are occurring should not suggest that the prices obtained are by any means market clearing prices. (Stated more simply, the market clearing price would be well below the prices of recent sales.) On the other hand, at the opposite end of the price scale, inventories of single family homes are low, and activity brisk. For many years, in areas east of I-95, affordable housing has been in short supply, and that continues to be the case. We are no longer at a point in the cycle where you can throw a dart, buy anything, and come out a winner. You don’t have to choose me to help you navigate these waters, although I would be grateful if you did. Now more than ever, the skill of an active Realtor with strong local market knowledge is essential to your satisfaction and success in current market conditions.
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
7
A note on methodology: As with the previous Yearbooks, I have indicated the median (half of transactions above, and half below) selling price over rolling six-month periods (unless otherwise noted). I have also shown the 25th and 75th percentiles to give an idea of the likely range of prices one is likely to encounter in a neighborhood. The big changes this year come with sales and inventory. Because of the intensely seasonal nature of sales here in south Florida (the first half of the year typically much heavier than the second), I thought that showing sales on a rolling 12-month basis would give a better idea of how things are trending. For the same reason, I have also used rolling 12-month periods in the inventory calculation (the number of months needed to sell the homes on the market). But here I have made an additional modification. Due to seasonality, the inventory level at any particular time would be a function of anticipated sales in the near future – or to use the economic forecasting term, a “leading indicator�. Consequently, I have lagged inventory by three months to account for this effect. This should produce a more usable and meaningful statistic. I have also provided my assessment of inventory level, on the following scale. I have also noted in parentheses the number of neighborhoods (of the 60 analyzed here) that fall into each category: 6 months or less: 7-9 months: 10-12 months: 13-18 months: 19+ months:
Low (5) Balanced (28) Elevated (9) High (13) Very High (5)
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
8
Deerfield (east of Federal) – non waterfront Sales Prices ($000) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 401 3Q16 385 4Q11 229 Change from 3Q16: +4% Change from 4Q11: +75% Annualized from 4Q11: +13% 12-Month Sales: 3Q17 83 3Q16 91 Change from 3Q16: -9%
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
9
Deerfield (east of Federal) – waterfront Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 803 3Q16 812 4Q11 666 Change from 3Q16: -1% Change from 4Q11: +20% Annualized from 4Q11: +4%
Sales Prices ($000) 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 30 3Q16 34 Change from 3Q16: -12%
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 9 months
Months of Inventory 21.0
18.0
15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
10
Lighthouse Point (north of Sample) – non waterfront Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 467 3Q16 474 4Q11 348 Change from 3Q16: -2% Change from 4Q11: +34% Annualized from 4Q11: +6%
Sales Prices ($000) 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 38 3Q16 35 Change from 3Q16: +9%
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
11
Lighthouse Point (north of Sample) – waterfront Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 970 3Q16 945 4Q11 705 Change from 3Q16: +3% Change from 4Q11: +38% Annualized from 4Q11: +7%
Sales Prices ($000) 1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 82 3Q16 66 Change from 3Q16: +24%
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 12 months
Months of Inventory 27.0 24.0 21.0 18.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Elevated
15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
12
Lighthouse Point (south of Sample) – non waterfront Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 418 3Q16 415 4Q11 275 Change from 3Q16: +1% Change from 4Q11: +52% Annualized from 4Q11: +9%
Sales Prices ($000) 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 48 3Q16 41 Change from 3Q16: +17%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 9 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
13
Lighthouse Point (south of Sample) – waterfront Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 1,485 3Q16 1,275 4Q11 1,235 Change from 3Q16: +16% Change from 4Q11: +20% Annualized from 4Q11: +4%
Sales Prices ($000) 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 43 3Q16 27 Change from 3Q16: +59%
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 15 months
Months of Inventory 27.0 24.0 21.0 18.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
14
Pompano (east of Federal) – non waterfront Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 405 3Q16 356 4Q11 267 Change from 3Q16: +11% Change from 4Q11: +52% Annualized from 4Q11: +9%
Sales Prices ($000) 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 77 3Q16 82 Change from 3Q16: -6%
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 10 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Elevated
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
15
Pompano (east of Federal) – waterfront Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 821 3Q16 765 4Q11 600 Change from 3Q16: +7% Change from 4Q11: +37% Annualized from 4Q11: +7%
Sales Prices ($000) 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 61 3Q16 75 Change from 3Q16: -19%
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 16 months
Months of Inventory 30.0 27.0 24.0 21.0 18.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
16
Pompano (west of Federal, south of Atlantic, east of Cypress) – non waterfront
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 351 3Q16 342 4Q11 200 Change from 3Q16: +3% Change from 4Q11: +76% Annualized from 4Q11: +13%
Sales Prices ($000) 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales 60
50
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 44 3Q16 40 Change from 3Q16: +10%
40
30
20
10
0
Months of Inventory 12.0
Inventory at 3Q17: 7 months
9.0
6.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
17
Pompano (west of Federal, south of Atlantic, east of Cypress) – waterfront
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 560 3Q16 499 4Q11 345 Change from 3Q16: +12% Change from 4Q11: +62% Annualized from 4Q11: +11%
Sales Prices ($000) 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales 100 90
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 60 3Q16 76 Change from 3Q16: -21%
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Months of Inventory 15.0
Inventory at 3Q17: 10 months
12.0
9.0
6.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Elevated
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
18
North Andrews Gardens (north of Commercial) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 226 3Q16 200 4Q11 115 Change from 3Q16: +13% Change from 4Q11: +97% Annualized from 4Q11: +15%
Sales Prices ($000) 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 109 3Q16 123 Change from 3Q16: -11%
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 6 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Low
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
19
North Andrews Gardens (south of Commercial) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 250 3Q16 221 4Q11 122 Change from 3Q16: +13% Change from 4Q11: +105% Annualized from 4Q11: +16%
Sales Prices ($000) 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 50 3Q16 69 Change from 3Q16: -28%
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 5 months
Months of Inventory 9.0
6.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Low
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
20
Coral Ridge Isles/Knoll Ridge Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 427 3Q16 400 4Q11 260 Change from 3Q16: +7% Change from 4Q11: +64% Annualized from 4Q11: +11%
Sales Prices ($000) 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 67 3Q16 73 Change from 3Q16: -8%
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
21
Imperial Point Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 427 3Q16 405 4Q11 297 Change from 3Q16: +5% Change from 4Q11: +44% Annualized from 4Q11: +8%
Sales Prices ($000) 500
450
400
350
300
250
200
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 111 3Q16 105 Change from 3Q16: +6%
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
22
Coral Ridge CC/Landings (non waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 688 3Q16 656 4Q11 491 Change from 3Q16: +5% Change from 4Q11: +40% Annualized from 4Q11: +7%
Sales Prices ($000) 1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 72 3Q16 78 Change from 3Q16: -8%
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 10 months
Months of Inventory 18.0
15.0
12.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Elevated
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
23
Coral Ridge CC/Landings (waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 1,103 3Q16 1,165 4Q11 800 Change from 3Q16: -5% Change from 4Q11: +38% Annualized from 4Q11: +7%
Sales Prices ($000) 1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 72 3Q16 78 Change from 3Q16: -8%
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 17 months
Months of Inventory 24.0 21.0 18.0 15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
24
Twin Lakes/Royal Palm Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 305 3Q16 277 4Q11 181 Change from 3Q16: +10% Change from 4Q11: +69% Annualized from 4Q11: +12%
Sales Prices ($000) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 107 3Q16 83 Change from 3Q16: +29%
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 6 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Low
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
25
Oakland Park Corals Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 400 3Q16 405 4Q11 301 Change from 3Q16: -1% Change from 4Q11: +33% Annualized from 4Q11: +6%
Sales Prices ($000) 500
450
400
350
300
250
200
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 110 3Q16 89 Change from 3Q16: +24%
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 7 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
26
Wilton Manors West Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 430 3Q16 368 4Q11 230 Change from 3Q16: +17% Change from 4Q11: +59% Annualized from 4Q11: +10%
Sales Prices ($000) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 64 3Q16 55 Change from 3Q16: +16%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
27
Wilton Manors Center Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 449 3Q16 337 4Q11 215 Change from 3Q16: +33% Change from 4Q11: +119% Annualized from 4Q11: +18%
Sales Prices ($000) 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 68 3Q16 64 Change from 3Q16: +6%
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 9 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
28
Wilton Manors East Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 490 3Q16 520 4Q11 288 Change from 3Q16: -6% Change from 4Q11: +88% Annualized from 4Q11: +14%
Sales Prices ($000) 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 70 3Q16 75 Change from 3Q16: -7%
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 9 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
29
Coral Ridge (non waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 735 3Q16 700 4Q11 540 Change from 3Q16: +5% Change from 4Q11: +36% Annualized from 4Q11: +7%
Sales Prices ($000) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 67 3Q16 67 Change from 3Q16: 0%
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 12 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Elevated
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
30
Coral Ridge (waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 1,395 3Q16 1,750 4Q11 975 Change from 3Q16: -20% Change from 4Q11: +43% Annualized from 4Q11: +8%
Sales Prices ($000) 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 41 3Q16 32 Change from 3Q16: +28%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 16 months
Months of Inventory 24.0 21.0 18.0 15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
31
South Middle River Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 225 3Q16 180 4Q11 93 Change from 3Q16: +25% Change from 4Q11: +142% Annualized from 4Q11: +20%
Sales Prices ($000) 300
250
200
150
100
50
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 101 3Q16 87 Change from 3Q16: +16%
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
32
Middle River Terrace/Lake Ridge Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 310 3Q16 275 4Q11 138 Change from 3Q16: +13% Change from 4Q11: +125% Annualized from 4Q11: +19%
Sales Prices ($000) 400
350
300
250
200
150
100
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 49 3Q16 47 Change from 3Q16: +4%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 7 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
33
Poinsettia Heights Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 380 3Q16 380 4Q11 293 Change from 3Q16: 0% Change from 4Q11: +30% Annualized from 4Q11: +6%
Sales Prices ($000) 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 64 3Q16 74 Change from 3Q16: -14%
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
34
Inland Waterfront Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 485 3Q16 440 4Q11 313 Change from 3Q16: +10% Change from 4Q11: +55% Annualized from 4Q11: +10%
Sales Prices ($000) 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 98 3Q16 114 Change from 3Q16: -14%
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 10 months
Months of Inventory 21.0
18.0
15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Elevated
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
35
Victoria Park Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 705 3Q16 618 4Q11 349 Change from 3Q16: +14% Change from 4Q11: +102% Annualized from 4Q11: +16%
Sales Prices ($000) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 76 3Q16 69 Change from 3Q16: +10%
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 14 months
Months of Inventory 21.0
18.0
15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
36
Las Olas Isles Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 1,835 3Q16 1,863 4Q11 1,735 Change from 3Q16: -1% Change from 4Q11: +6% Annualized from 4Q11: +1%
Sales Prices ($000) 3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 60 3Q16 71 Change from 3Q16: -15%
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 27 months
Months of Inventory 36.0 33.0 30.0 27.0 24.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Very High
21.0 18.0 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
37
Rio Vista/Colee Hammock/Beverly Heights (non waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 1,125 3Q16 820 4Q11 480 Change from 3Q16: +37% Change from 4Q11: +134% Annualized from 4Q11: +20%
Sales Prices ($000) 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 38 3Q16 38 Change from 3Q16:
60
50
40
30
20
0%
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 15 months
Months of Inventory 21
18
15
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
12
9
6
3
0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
38
Rio Vista/Colee Hammock/Beverly Heights (waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 1,863 3Q16 2,716 4Q11 1,475 Change from 3Q16: -31% Change from 4Q11: +26% Annualized from 4Q11: +5%
Sales Prices ($000) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 16 3Q16 13 Change from 3Q16: +23%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 17 months
Months of Inventory 18.0
15.0
12.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
39
Harbor/Harbordale (non waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 695 3Q16 769 4Q11 650 Change from 3Q16: -10% Change from 4Q11: +7% Annualized from 4Q11: +1% 12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 24 3Q16 16 Change from 3Q16: +50%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 21.0
18.0
15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
40
Harbor/Harbordale (waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 2,299 3Q16 2,000 4Q11 1,650 Change from 3Q16: +15% Change from 4Q11: +39% Annualized from 4Q11: +7% 12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 33 3Q16 25 Change from 3Q16: +32%
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 18 months
Months of Inventory 36 33 30 27 24
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
41
Hollywood North Lake Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 405 3Q16 415 4Q11 325 Change from 3Q16: -2% Change from 4Q11: +25% Annualized from 4Q11: +5%
Sales Prices ($000) 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 98 3Q16 105 Change from 3Q16: -7%
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 11 months
Months of Inventory 18.0
15.0
12.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Elevated
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
42
Hollywood South Lake Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 547 3Q16 456 4Q11 447 Change from 3Q16: +20% Change from 4Q11: +22% Annualized from 4Q11: +4%
Sales Prices ($000) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
25TH
50TH
75TH
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 98 3Q16 105 Change from 3Q16: -7%
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 16 months
Months of Inventory 24.0 21.0 18.0 15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
43
Lake Worth District 1 (Lake Osborne area) Sales Prices ($000) 300
250
200
150
100
50
0 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 1 4 14 14 14 1 5 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 232 3Q16 227 4Q11 116 Change from 3Q16: +2% Change from 4Q11: +101% Annualized from 4Q11: +16% 12-Month Sales: 3Q17 51 3Q16 61 Change from 3Q16: -16%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 7 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
44
Lake Worth District 1 (east of 95) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 153 3Q16 94 4Q11 50 Change from 3Q16: +62% Change from 4Q11: +205% Annualized from 4Q11: +26%
Sale Prices ($000) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 63 3Q16 60 Change from 3Q16: +5%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 6 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Low
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
45
Lake Worth District 2 (east of 95) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 183 3Q16 155 4Q11 56 Change from 3Q16: +18% Change from 4Q11: +226% Annualized from 4Q11: +28%
Sale Prices ($000) 250
200
150
100
50
0
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 93 3Q16 63 Change from 3Q16: +48%
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 7 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
46
Lake Worth District 3 (west of Federal) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 220 3Q16 198 4Q11 98 Change from 3Q16: +11% Change from 4Q11: +124% Annualized from 4Q11: +19%
Sale Prices ($000) 300
250
200
150
100
50
0
25th
50th
75th
12 Months Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 98 3Q16 72 Change from 3Q16: +36%
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 7 months
Months of Inventory 12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
47
Lake Worth District 3 (east of Federal) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 310 3Q16 294 4Q11 168 Change from 3Q16: +5% Change from 4Q11: +84% Annualized from 4Q11: +14%
Sale Prices ($000) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 74 3Q16 85 Change from 3Q16: -13%
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 9 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
48
Lake Worth District 4 (west of Federal) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 165 3Q16 153 4Q11 47 Change from 3Q16: +8% Change from 4Q11: +249% Annualized from 4Q11: +30%
Sale Prices ($000) 250
200
150
100
50
0
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 31 3Q16 32 Change from 3Q16: -3%
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 7 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
49
Lake Worth District 4 (east of Federal) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 378 3Q16 272 4Q11 139 Change from 3Q16: +39% Change from 4Q11: +172% Annualized from 4Q11: +23%
Sale Prices ($000) 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 28 3Q16 23 Change from 3Q16: +22%
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 7 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
50
Delray Beach – east of Intracoastal (waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 2,900 3Q16 5,800 4Q11 1,602 Change from 3Q16: -50% Change from 4Q11: +81% Annualized from 4Q11: +13%
Sales Prices ($000) 12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 15 3Q16 19 Change from 3Q16: -21%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 12 months
Months of Inventory 48.0 45.0 42.0 39.0 36.0 33.0 30.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Elevated
27.0 24.0 21.0 18.0 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
51
Delray Beach – east of Intracoastal (non-waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 1,555 3Q16 1,500 4Q11 1,350 Change from 3Q16: +4% Change from 4Q11: +15% Annualized from 4Q11: +3%
Sales Prices ($000) 3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 13 3Q16 24 Change from 3Q16: -46%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 15 months
Months of Inventory 21.0
18.0
15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
52
Delray Beach – Federal to Intracoastal (waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 1,320 3Q16 1,300 4Q11 1,125 Change from 3Q16: +4% Change from 4Q11: +20% Annualized from 4Q11: +4%
Sales Prices ($000) 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 23 3Q16 37 Change from 3Q16: -38%
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 21 months
Months of Inventory 30.0 27.0 24.0 21.0 18.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Very High
15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
53
Delray Beach – Federal to Intracoastal (non-waterfront) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 815 3Q16 695 4Q11 435 Change from 3Q16: +17% Change from 4Q11: +87% Annualized from 4Q11: +14%
Sales Prices ($000) 1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 22 3Q16 21 Change from 3Q16: +5%
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 14 months
Months of Inventory 18.0
15.0
12.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
54
Delray Beach – Federal to Swinton Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 390 3Q16 313 4Q11 115 Change from 3Q16: +25% Change from 4Q11: +238% Annualized from 4Q11: +29%
Sales Prices ($000) 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 55 3Q16 38 Change from 3Q16: +45%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 30.0 27.0 24.0 21.0 18.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
55
Delray Beach – Lake Ida Area Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 658 3Q16 665 4Q11 409 Change from 3Q16: -1% Change from 4Q11: +61% Annualized from 4Q11: +11%
Sales Prices ($000) 1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 74 3Q16 68 Change from 3Q16: +9%
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 13 months
Months of Inventory 18.0
15.0
12.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
56
Delray Beach – West Central (Lake Ida/Swinton/Linton/I-95) Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 180 3Q16 154 4Q11 54 Change from 3Q16: +17% Change from 4Q11: +236% Annualized from 4Q11: +29%
Sales Prices ($000) 250
200
150
100
50
0
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 74 3Q16 49 Change from 3Q16: +51%
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 18.0
15.0
12.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
57
Delray Beach – Tropic Palms area Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 343 3Q16 325 4Q11 200 Change from 3Q16: +6% Change from 4Q11: +72% Annualized from 4Q11: +12%
Sales Prices ($000) 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 32 3Q16 33 Change from 3Q16: -3%
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 6 months
Months of Inventory 15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Low
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
58
West Palm Beach – Old Northwood, Northboro Park, and Vedado HD Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 220 3Q16 185 4Q11 45 Change from 3Q16: +19% Change from 4Q11: +389% Annualized from 4Q11: +40%
Sales Prices ($000) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 20 3Q16 21 Change from 3Q16: -5%
25
20
15
10
5
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 18.0
15.0
12.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
59
West Palm Beach – Flamingo Park and Grandview Heights HD Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 450 3Q16 430 4Q11 215 Change from 3Q16: +5% Change from 4Q11: +109% Annualized from 4Q11: +17%
Sales Prices ($000) 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 44 3Q16 35 Change from 3Q16: +26%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 9 months
Months of Inventory 21.0
18.0
15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
60
West Palm Beach – El Cid and Mango Promenade HD Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 1,350 3Q16 1,030 4Q11 580 Change from 3Q16: +31% Change from 4Q11: +133% Annualized from 4Q11: +19%
Sales Prices ($000) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 13 3Q16 18 Change from 3Q16: -28%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 21 months
Months of Inventory 24.0 21.0 18.0 15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Very High
12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
61
West Palm Beach – Prospect Park, Southland, and Central Park HD Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 578 3Q16 432 4Q11 363 Change from 3Q16: +34% Change from 4Q11: +59% Annualized from 4Q11: +10%
Sales Prices ($000) 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 34 3Q16 38 Change from 3Q16: -11%
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 14 months
Months of Inventory 21.0
18.0
15.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: High
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
62
El Portal
Sales Prices ($000) 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 435 3Q16 435 4Q11 195 Change from 3Q16: 0% Change from 4Q11: +223% Annualized from 4Q11: +18% 12-Month Sales: 3Q17 34 3Q16 32 Change from 3Q16: +6%
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 9 months
Months of Inventory 18.0
15.0
12.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
63
Miami Shores – non waterfront
Sales Prices ($000) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 632 3Q16 516 4Q11 333 Change from 3Q16: +22% Change from 4Q11: +90% Annualized from 4Q11: +14% 12-Month Sales: 3Q17 124 3Q16 108 Change from 3Q16: +15%
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 11 months
Months of Inventory 18.0
15.0
12.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Elevated
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
64
Biscayne Park (west)
Sales Prices ($000) 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
25th
50th
75th
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 439 3Q16 399 4Q11 195 Change from 3Q16: +10% Change from 4Q11: +225% Annualized from 4Q11: +19%
12-Month Sales 50 45
12-Month Sales: 3Q17 41 3Q16 28 Change from 3Q16: +46%
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Months of Inventory 18.0
Inventory at 3Q17: 9 months
15.0
12.0
9.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
6.0
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
65
Surfside – non waterfront
Sales Prices ($000) 800
700
600
500
400
300
200 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 659 3Q16 664 4Q11 387 Change from 3Q16: -1% Change from 4Q11: +71% Annualized from 4Q11: +12% 12-Month Sales: 3Q17 39 3Q16 36 Change from 3Q16: +8%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 8 months
Months of Inventory 9.0
6.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Balanced
3.0
0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
66
Normandy Isle – non waterfront
Sales Prices ($000) 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 550 3Q16 610 4Q11 260 Change from 3Q16: -10% Change from 4Q11: +212% Annualized from 4Q11: +17% 12-Month Sales: 3Q17 26 3Q16 25 Change from 3Q16: +4%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Inventory at 3Q17: 19 months
Months of Inventory 27.0 24.0 21.0 18.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Very High
15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
67
Miami Shores, Surfside and Normandy Isle - waterfront Sales Prices ($000) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
25th
50th
75th
12-Month Sales
Median Prices ($000): 3Q17 2,205 3Q16 1,825 4Q11 1,400 Change from 3Q16: +21% Change from 4Q11: +58% Annualized from 4Q11: +10% 12-Month Sales: 3Q17 16 3Q16 17 Change from 3Q16: -6%
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Inventory at 3Q17: 33 months
Months of Inventory 45.0 42.0 39.0 36.0 33.0 30.0 27.0
Assessment of Inventory Level: Very High
24.0 21.0 18.0 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 03/12
09/12
03/13
09/13
03/14
09/14
03/15
09/15
03/16
09/16
03/17
09/17
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
68
Fabulous? Or Basic? by James Oaksun (First published in the May 2017 Homes Issue of South Florida Gay News) If you are a loyal reader of this publication, I can pretty much guarantee, given the option, you would rather people describe you as “fabulous” instead of “basic”. That’s only natural; I’m the same way. So why wouldn’t you want your home to match (or even possibly exceed) your own level of fabulousness? I took a look at single family home sales in the last year, within two miles of Stately SFGN Headquarters. Twenty-eight percent of the sales had final prices of $500,000 or higher. And six percent of the transactions hit or exceeded the $1 million mark. Certainly many of these residences were fabulous, in their own way. In this column, I am going to point out some locations in South Florida where you can find something a little different, not of the “basic” 1955-70 generic one level variety. Areas, perhaps a little off the beaten track of the Gayborhood, where you (and perhaps more importantly, your friends) will say the “F” word (fabulous, people, come on) when they see your home and those nearby. Yes some of them are a little pricey. But hey, as I said above, people obviously are willing to spend a lot to live in or near WilMa, only to end up with something that looks no different from what you would find in the Vast Undiscovered Territory (which I define as everything west of 95 or north of Jupiter). And many of them can be bought for less than you think. Having lived most of my life (so far) in New England, I am accustomed to seeing (and living in) homes from the 19th or even 18th Century. There was, indeed, life here in South Florida – not just in Miami-Dade, but in Palm Beach and even Broward counties – before the Baby Boom. Many of these older homes, built prior to 1940, are architecturally stunning. So, put on your art and architecture appreciation hats, and let’s go on a drive. You are going to find most of these homes in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties. While there are some here in Broward, the history of South Florida really started in the 1920s in Miami and Palm Beach. Broward was not developed in earnest until later. But we will begin with Broward and extend outward 1. Downtown Hollywood. The only significant historic district in Broward is the stretch of Hollywood Boulevard between Young Circle and (roughly) Dixie Highway. And within walking distance of that district are some staggeringly beautiful prewar homes. They don’t come onto the market often, but generally can be bought in the $300-500k range when they do. 2. Southwest corner of Fort Lauderdale. Yes there are some beautiful prewar homes in Victoria Park, Colee Hammock and Rio Vista. But the preponderance of prewar homes in Broward’s principal city lay west and south of there – in the Sailboat Bend, Tarpon River and Riverside Park neighborhoods. In the time I have lived in Fort Lauderdale I have seen increased interest here. Come take a look sometime and expect to spend $250-400k for a small prewar home with a high FI (Fabulousness Index).
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
69
.Next let’s venture into Miami-Dade. Here we find two entire neighborhoods on the National Register of Historic Places. One requires a large chunk of change, but the other is a bit more reasonable price-wise. And as I said, why spend big money on ho-hum? 3. Bayside/Morningside Park area of Miami. Look east of Biscayne between roughly 50th and 60th Streets for some of the most amazing homes you will find in South Florida. These homes are usually larger and more elegant than those of the same vintage in Broward. But for those who like the energy, culture and nightlife of Miami, and can afford a premium price, I believe it to be an outstanding option. The homes are generally in excess of 2,000 square feet, and while you can on occasion get one for under $800k, you’re going to need $1 million or more to buy here. 4. Normandy Isle. The other National Register neighborhood is on the east side of the bay, on a lovely island off the west coast of the Beach as you go out 71 st Street toward North Bay Village. Prices here are lower than on the mainland, though the homes are typically smaller (in the 15002000 square foot area). Expect price tags in the 400s and 500s, but again, the fabulousness is free. Now let’s head north into Palm Beach County for some grand examples. 5. Delray Beach downtown. I’m a little biased, I love Delray and consider Atlantic Avenue a superior alternative to Las Olas. Your price of entry here is going to be at least $300k for a smaller home, going into the higher six figures for larger and more elegant. But you will be in an easy walking distance to restaurants and fun, and you (and your friends) will say “wow”. 6. Certain parts of Lake Worth. There are a couple residential neighborhoods here in the National Register. You’re a stone’s throw from West Palm and Palm Beach, and you would not only have a cool house but would be part of the renaissance of this community. Focus on College Hill (between Dixie and Federal and north of 19th Street) and the area east of Federal toward the Lake. Inventory is generally strong. You will find many opportunities between $200 and $400k. There are also a plethora of smaller prewar homes in other areas of Lake Worth that could make excellent investment or rental opportunities. 7. Palm Beach. I can hear you – Are you kidding me, James? No, I’m not, and yes I realize I’m not talking to that many of you. But if you have the means to spend in the $1 million area for a home, which would you rather tell people including your know-it-all friends from Boston and DC: that you live in Pompano (now I like Pompano, and no offense, But) or that you live in Palm Beach? Just north of the Breakers there are a couple streets of smaller (you might call them large bungalow) homes that on occasion hit the market in the $1 million area. Think about it. 8. And finally, any of the several historic residential districts in West Palm (for example, Northwood, Grandview Heights and Flamingo Park). Don’t scoff until you check the events schedule at the Kravis Center, or enjoy City Place for a while. Parts of West Palm are architecturally amazing, and at prices you might find surprising. A goodly number of these homes are generally available in the $300-500k range. Expect premium prices (more than $1 million) for El Cid. Maybe you can trade up to there. The question then becomes: what do you do with the place once you buy it? Especially at the lowerparts of the price ranges, you are going to need to do some updating. You can not only have a fabulous home from the street view all the way in, but you can preserve a wonderful part of Florida’s history and do the right thing environmentally by making the workings and landscape smarter and more efficient. That’s a three-fer that will make the home maximally attractive to the next owner.
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
70
About James Oaksun, Florida’s Real Estate GeekSM James Oaksun is Broker-Owner of New Realty Concepts LLC, a boutique real estate brokerage in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Originally from Buffalo, New York, James is a cum laude graduate of Dartmouth College, and received an MBA in finance from Cornell University. James worked for more than 20 years in a variety of financial and actuarial positions. He spent most of that time at Unum Group in Portland, Maine, eventually becoming Director of Actuarial Analysis. When he reached midlife, James decided to change careers and relocate to a warmer and sunnier place. He wanted to use his skills in finance, research and analysis to help people directly, and decided to enter the real estate industry. He first received training as an appraiser, and while he did not ultimately enter that field, utilizes that knowledge base every day as a Realtor. In 2013 James became a licensed real estate sales representative in Florida. Two years later, he earned his Broker license in Florida, and last year founded New Realty Concepts. James is a firm believer in life-long education. While in the insurance industry, he earned the designations of Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU) and Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) from The American College. Since becoming a Realtor, James has earned additional real estate industry-specific designations and accreditations, including: Graduate Realtor Institute (GRI), Broker Price Opinion Resource (BPOR), Accredited Buyer Representative (ABR), and Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource (SFR). Additionally, James has assumed several leadership roles in the real estate industry in Florida. He is a state director of the Florida Association of Realtors, where he serves on the Research Advisory committee. At the local level, James is a 2014 graduate of the Greater Fort Lauderdale Realtors Leadership Academy, and has served on a variety of committees within that Board. James is a multiply-published author, and writes a biweekly real estate column for South Florida Gay News. Outside of work (although small business owners and Realtors are never, really, away from work), James enjoys reading, golf, politics, music, and going to the beach.
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com
71
James@NewRealtyConcepts.com www.NewRealtyConcepts.com