POLITICAL CAMPAIGN PLANNING MANUAL
demMayor97 = percentage of votes received by a similar "democratic" oriented mayor candidate in the precinct in 1997 This formula is the average of the votes for "democratic orientation" in four elections. Obviously, choosing which parties and which candidates well represent "democratic orientation" will be a little tricky. Persuadability is the percentage of voters in a precinct that do not vote in a consistent way. Either they "split" their vote (vote for candidates of different orientations in the same election) or "shift" their vote (vote for candidates of different orientations over the course of two or more elections). It is generally considered that "vote splitters" and "vote shifters" are the voters most likely to be persuaded by a campaign's efforts. A campaign might use the following formula to measure persuadability. This formula averages the precinct's "vote shifters" (between the legislative races in 1995 and the presidential races in 1996) with the "vote splitters" (between the gubernatorial race and mayors race in 1997). [(DemLeg95 minus DemPres96) plus (DemGov97 minus DemMayor97)] divided by 2 Elections DemLeg95 = number of votes received by "Democratic Party" legislative candidate in the precinct in 1995 DemPres96 = number of votes received by "Democratic Party" presidential candidate in the precinct in 1996 DemGov97 = number of votes received by "Democratic Party" governor candidate in the precinct in 1997 DemMayor97 = number of votes received by "Democratic Party" mayor candidate in the precinct in 1997 Note: Use absolute values for the subtraction results. Again, where party affiliations are less strong, defining " persuadability" will be a little trickier. One possible formula might be: [(demLeg95 minus demPres96) plus (demGov97 minus demMayor97)] divided by 2 Elections demLeg95 = number of votes received by a similar "democratic" oriented legislative candidate in the precinct in 1995 demPres96 = number of votes received by a similar "democratic" oriented presidential candidate in the precinct in 1996 demGov97 = number of votes received by a similar "democratic" oriented governor candidate in the precinct in 1997 demMayor97 = number of votes received by a similar "democratic" oriented mayor candidate in the precinct in 1997 This formula averages the precinct's "vote shifters" (between the legislative races in 1995 and the presidential races in 1996) with the "vote splitters" (between the gubernatorial race and mayors race in 1997) for "democratic orientation" in four elections. Obviously, choosing which parties and which candidates well represent "democratic orientation" will be a little tricky.
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