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The 25th 速 Annual IREM Forecast Breakfast

brought to you by:

Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29

Thursday December 6, 2012 Portland Ballroom Oregon Convention Center 777 NE Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Forecast Breakfast Committee 2012 Friends of IREM® – Breakfast Sponsors Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29—Volunteers 

Chapter Officers

Executive Council & Members at Large

Committee Chairs

Becoming an Accredited Management Organization® 

Featured AMO® Sponsors & AMO® Firm Members

Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29—Membership Academic Members Associate Members Becoming an Accredited Residential Manager® Accredited Residential Managers® Becoming a CPM® Candidate Certified Property Manager® Candidates Becoming a Certified Property Manager® Certified Property Managers®

2012 SPEAKER PANEL Master of Ceremonies: Debra Gil, Good Day Oregon Finance: John Swanson, Umpqua Bank Retail: JJ Unger, NAI Norris Beggs & Simpson Industrial: Paul F. Breuer, SIOR®, Colliers International Multi-Family: Gregory Frick, HFO Office: Mark C. Friel, Jones Lang LaSalle

Guest Speaker: Merritt Paulson, owner Portland Timbers


2012 Forecast Breakfast Committee Jennifer Gerritz, CPM® • Alexia Consulting • Chair Kathi Pearce, CPM® • Wyse Investment Services, Inc. Ronda Butler • Raindrop Supply Barb Casey • Kennedy Restoration Dyann Hamilton, CPM® • CB Richard Ellis, Inc. Cini Apostol, CPM®, RPA®, CCIM® • Kidder Mathews Caroline Karl, RPA® • Bluestone & Hockley Real Estate Services Damon Kenyon, ARM® • GSL Properties, Inc. Mark St. Pierre • Interstate Roofing • Mittens n’ More Sub-Committee Chair Sumer Bradley, CPM® • Mittens n’ More Sub-Committee Speech Coach: Bob LaDu • Earth Gatherings Transcript Design: Julie L. Muir, CPM® • Elliott Associates, Inc.

2012 Friends of IREM – Breakfast Sponsors Allied Waste

JR Johnson

Perlo Construction

Apartment Guide

Kennedy Restoration

Raindrop Supply/Expresso Bldg Srvc

Apartments.com

Landgraphics, Inc.

ServiceMaster Solutions

Aspen Ridge Property Services

Lovett, Inc.

Snyder Roofing & Sheet Metal

Benge Industries

Metro Multi-Family Housing Assoc.

Squires Electric

Cantel Sweeping

Millennium Building Services

The Brickman Group

Centric Elevator

Mt. Hood Window Coverings

The Oregonian

Columbia Roofing & Sheet Metal

National Maintenance Contractors

Township-United Building Services

First Response, Inc.

Oregon Refuse & Recycling Assoc.

USI Northwest

Five Star Signs, Inc.

Oregon-Aire, Inc.

Walter E. Nelson Company

Har-Bro West, Inc.

Pacific Landscape Management, Inc.

Western States Fire

Hunt Painting Company

Pavement Maintenance, Inc.


Friends of IREM® Program Benefits Throughout the country, Friends of IREM® programs are a Chapter’s lifeline. Without the support of our Friends, both financially and through participation, our Chapter would be hard-pressed to provide quality member services and programs, such as today’s Forecast Breakfast. We consider our Friends as our partners—an enthusiastic and dedicated group of professionals who are always willing to lend a helping hand—from committee work and event planning—to donations of goods and services, thereby allowing us to raise money for charity and make a difference in the community and our local real estate industry. THANK YOU FRIENDS...FOR ALL THAT YOU DO! If you’re interested in our 2013 Friends of IREM® Program...a relationship with IREM brings:

COMMUNICATION …with industry leaders who manage nearly $2 trillion in real estate assets. With nearly 16,700

members worldwide, IREM is the largest organization dedicated to advancing the professional interests of commercial and multi-family real estate managers. In addition, IREM Members:  Have responsibility for over 10.4 billion square feet of commercial properties.  Manage more than 11.4 million residential units.  Manage, on average, commercial properties totaling 828,000 square feet.  Manage, on average, 1,293 residential units.

COLLABORATION …with the most respected organization in the real estate management industry. IREM has been the source for education, resources, information, and membership for real estate management professionals since 1933. An affiliate of the National Association of Realtors, IREM is the only professional real estate management association serving both the multi-family and commercial real estate sectors. Membership includes more than nearly 16,700 individual members and 535 corporate members. With 80 U.S. chapters, 14 international chapters, and several other partnerships around the globe, IREM is an international organization that also serves as an advocate on issues affecting the real estate management industry.

CONNECTION …with an audience with $9.3 billion in buying power. Through networking, education and digital exposure, IREM helps connect you to target the top firms in the country.


2013 Friends of IREM® Program Benefits Your annual FRIEND OF IREM® sponsorship fee provides you with the following benefits in 2013: 

One complimentary ticket (plus advertising) at the annual FORECAST BREAKFAST held in December of each year. Your sponsorship fee also includes prominent recognition at the event itself, including highlights of your firm in the event transcript. This is an opportunity to showcase your business to approximately 800 attendees in the Portland/Metro area real estate industry!

Discounts on In-Focus (newsletter) advertising (if available).

Annual access to approximately 300 participants and members of the OregonColumbia River Chapter, including Certified Property Managers (CPM®), ACoM® Members, AMO® Firms and Accredited Residential Managers (ARM®) in the Portland area.

One set of mailing labels to the Chapter membership at no charge, however, we will not send them unless requested, so that the information you receive is as up to date as possible.

The ability to attend the monthly membership meetings at the member rate (excludes the Annual “Inaugural” Awards Dinner) for up to two of your company’s representatives

A special introduction at the first membership meeting after your inception date, and each anniversary thereafter if you renew your sponsorship.

FRIENDS of IREM® name tags for use at monthly membership meetings identifying you as a FRIEND (although direct soliciting is not permitted, placement of brochures and business cards at tables is welcome with advance notice).

Your company name listed as a FRIEND of IREM® on our website: www.iremoregon.org

Company website linked from IREM Oregon’s website at www.iremoregon.org

Limited competition! Only four sponsors per industry or service classification is allowed during any given calendar year. For questions or more information, please call 503.228.0002, or send us an email at www.info@iremoregon.org.


2012 Friends of IREM Allied Waste 10239 NE Marx Street • Portland, OR 97220 • (503) 253-5656 We offer one-stop shopping for all of your waste removal concerns. Although we specialize in solid waste and recycling collection, our services go far beyond just emptying your trash bins. Republic Services is America’s second largest non-hazardous solid waste services company and has the most experienced management tea m in the industry. Headquartered in Phoenix, AZ, Republic Services provides / waste collection, transfer, recycling and disposal services to approximately 13 million commercial, industrial, municipal and residential customers in 40 states and Puerto Rico. We also own or operate more than 200 transfer stations, nearly 200 solid waste landfills and 76 recycling facilities. Republic’s team of more than 31,000 dedicated employees is committed to delivering service that exeeds our customers’ highest expectations.

Apartment Guide 9570 SW Barbur Blvd, Suite 215 • Portland, OR 97219 • (503) 525-0636 • Contact Carmen Fink Apartment Guide Printernet, the industry media leader for over 32 years, is focused on TARGETED MARKETING and making the REAL INVESTMENTS that deliver the BEST RESULTS for both our advertisers and apartment shoppers. Apartment Guide Printernet provides the most and highest quality traffic and leads for the lowest cost per lease of any lead source in the industry. We’ve got the LEAD…We’ve got the LEASE. Call your marketing partner today at (503)706-0866 for advertising details. Visit our website at www.apartmentguide.com

Apartments.com 175 West Jackson Blvd, 8th Floor • Chicago, IL 60604 • (503) 706-6244 • Contact Jennifer Lester Apartments.com is a leading national online apartment Internet Listing Service (ILS) distinguished by its ability to provide advertisers highly qualified leads, full service local support, top notch training and online exposure second to none. Apartments.com connects renters with apartment communities through engaging virtual tours, professional community photos and detailed descriptions. With 29 different amenity options to help customize their search, renters find what they want and arrive at apartment communities ready to lease. Apartments.com delivers highly qualified, ready-to-rent prospects to more than 15,000 trade customers.

Aspen Ridge Property Services 10200 SW Allen Blvd Suite H • Beaverton, OR 97005 • (503) 6393836 • Contact Matt McCasline Founded in 2005, Aspen Ridge Property Services has grown to become a property maintenance leader in the Portland Metro area. We offer our expertise and services to commercial, industrial, and retail facilities throughout the state of Oregon. At Aspen Ridge Property Services, we strive to: Commit ourselves to unsurpassed excellence, value, and service; Offer a comprehensive, best-in-class selection of services; Provide customized solutions to address our clients' unique needs; Minimize impact on the environment by employing earth-friendly products & practices ; Enrich the communities in which we do business.


2012 Friends of IREM Continued... Benge Industries 1709 NW Eleven Mile Avenue • Gresham, OR 97030 • (503) 682-9123 Benge Industries is a full service asphalt maintenance company serving the commercial and industrial sector of the Portland metro area since 1993. We provide optimal service and quality workmanship offering a one year guarantee on all work performed by Benge Industries covering both materials and workmanship. We believe in quality workmanship and believe you should not accept anything less.

Cantel Sweeping PO Box 83265 • Portland, OR 97283 • (503) 661-4337 Fax (503) 661-4401 CANTEL SWEEPING specializes in parking lot sweeping and striping. We operate every night, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. No other sweeping company covers the Willamette Valley like Cantel Sweeping. We cover the Northwest from Vancouver Washington to Salem Oregon. A clean and well maintained parking lot makes a positive impression upon your customers. We constantly review your needs and recommend the optimal, but not excessive, sweeping and striping frequency to provide that clean, well maintained look. Cantel Sweeping is committed to helping to clean up the environment. Parking lot sweeping minimizes the amount of pollutants that go directly from your parking lot to the storm water runoff system. We capture these pollutants and process them through a state-of-the-art facility where all debris and waste water is recycled or properly disposed. Call us for a free bid or check out our website at www.cantelsweeping.com

Centric Elevator 2855 SE 9th Avenue • Portland OR 97202 • (503) 234-0561 • Contact David Lyons or Cory Hunter The formation of Centric Elevator Corporation in 1977 marked a significant development in the elevator service market. Founded in Denver, Colorado and steadily growing by providing quality elevator service, Centric expanded to Arizona in 1983. In 1990, Centric again expanded its market to Oregon by acquiring Western Elevator. Filling the void that existed between the large national elevator manufacturers and the small independent service companies, Centric established a service philosophy emphasizing innovation and quality service at competitive pricing. Completing our 35th year in business, Centric has experienced steady long-term growth and is known as one of the largest independent elevator companies in the United States.

Columbia Roofing & Sheet Metal 18525 SW 126th Place • Tualatin, OR 97062 • (503) 682-9123 • Contact Mark Carpenter Columbia Roofing and Sheet Metal started by doing small repairs that built into a successful business model of helping owners make financial sense out of roofing repairs and replacement. While the average roofing company stays in business just five years or less, Columbia Roofing and Sheet Metal has spent more than a decade in the rain-soaked Pacific Northwest putting roofs over the things that people care about most. So whether it’s a question you need answered, or maintenance and repair issues that need addressing, you can rely on the fact that Columbia Roofing and Sheet Metal will be around to take care of you, your home and your business. Columbia Roofing & Sheet Metal now does work in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and California with a year around staff of over 50 people. Columbia provides 24/7 leak repair service, full commercial replacement and recovers, sheet metal work and roofs, plus residential roof repairs, recovers and replacements. The company’s statement tells you how they do business, “Expert Solutions, Guaranteed Results”, it’s just how we do business.


2012 Friends of IREM Continued... First Response, Inc. 4970 SW Griffith Drive, Suite 100 • Beaverton, OR 97005 • (503) 207-5300 “A Higher Standard in Safety & Security” First Response, Inc. is the largest locally owned private Security Company in the Portland, Vancouver & Seattle areas. Our services include professional Patrol and On-site Officers, 24-hour Alarm Response, Criminal Back ground Checks, Installation of Burglary and Fire Systems, CCTV, Phone & Data and a Local Monitoring Station. First Response, Inc. is a local security company able to provide all your security needs. We specialize in Security Patrols, Alarm Response, On-Site Guard Services and state-of-the-art Security Systems with Cameras. We save our clients hundreds of dollars a year with our ability to serve all their security needs. We have patrol vehicles on the road 24 hours a day and we continue to be the leader in alarm response in our industry. No other security company is more experienced or provides services to more Property Management Companies than FIRST RESPONSE. We are involved in the community and believe in establishing partnerships with companies who wish to protect their investments with professional services. We are committed to providing quality services at a fair price rather than inferior services priced cheap. We attribute our client retention n to our training, professionalism, outstanding customer service department and a focused dedication to consistency of services. With offices in Portland, Seattle and Salem, we can serve the Northwest. Through our innovative technology, alarms are routed directly to our center, Transmitting alarm, video, site audio and site information simultaneously. Using the latest technology in video and audio compression and transmission, our system interfaces with IP addresses, high speed cable or standard telephone lines to transmit video, audio and data to iWatch Specialists, who view and listen to the site and, when necessary, speak with anyone at the remote location. Call Dave Foglio at (503) 207-5300 to learn more or for a private tour. Or, check our website at www.fr-inc.com.

Five Star Signs 8219 SW Cirrus Drive • Beaverton, OR 97008 • (503) 641-1002 • Contact George Miller Signage specialists for Office, Medical, Industrial and Multi-Family.

Har-Bro 10898 SW Tualatin Sherwood Road • Tualatin, OR 97062 • (503) 482-6720 • Contact Todd Smith Har-Bro specializes in property damage restoration, by providing 24/7/365 emergency services and reconstruction for residential and commercial properties. Our Mission is to provide victims of disaster with immediate restoration service with the utmost Integrity, Dedication to Quality, and Outstanding Customer Service. With Har-Bro as part of your company’s solution to recover from natural and unpredictable disasters, you can take comfort in knowing that our quality craftsmanship and experienced personnel will serve all of your property restoration needs. Explore all the services and resources Har-Bro can offer with the confidence that our mission is to complete the work properly on time, the first time. Since 1961, we have specialized in the reconstruction and restoration of properties damaged by fire and smoke, water or sewage, collapse, wind, earthquakes and other natural or man-made disasters. Our experienced team can restore virtually every type of structure: commercial, industrial, high-rise, retail, multi-tenant and residential. You can take comfort knowing we have the skills and expertise in providing the best Emergency Restoration Services for your properties.


2012 Friends of IREM Continued... Hunt Painting Company 7400 SW Macadam • Portland, OR 97219 • (503) 503-245-5149 • Contact Bill Hunt Since 1969, we have been the painting contractors of choice for many home owners and business owners throughout the Portland, Oregon area as well as the surrounding counties. From small residential projects to large commercial buildings, we can handle the job efficiently and professionally. We have taken care of literally thousands of painting projects, and the scope of our work is quite wide. We get hired frequently because we offer top quality service at rates that are extremely competitive. Some of the work we do: exterior house painting, interior home painting, commercial painting – interior, and commercial painting – exterior.

JR Johnson, Inc. PO Box 17196, Portland, OR 97217 • (503) 240-3388 • Contact Katrin Arp At J.R. Johnson, Inc., we offer a full suite of general contracting, construction defect repair, and emergency restoration services. Serving Oregon and Washington for over 40 years, J.R. Johnson is an established and trusted partner in the improvement and restoration of our clients’ valued real estate assets. Our restoration specialists are certified experts in the repair and renovation of occupied multi-family residential properties, commercial buildings, and homes damaged by catastrophe. J.R. Johnson, Inc., the experts you can trust with the experience, knowledge and capacity to meet your improvement and restoration needs.

Kennedy Restoration 315 SE 7th Avenue • Portland, OR 97214 • (503) 234-0509 • Contact: Barb Casey Kennedy Restoration is a family owned business that has been serving the greater Portland area, Salem area and SW Washington since 1950. Kennedy specializes in restoring lives and rebuilding properties to residential, commercial and multifamily properties damaged by fire, water, wind, vandalism, biohazard clean-up and other natural and man-made disasters. Kennedy Restoration is a full-service general contractor that will coordinate and manage all phases of the restoration process, from emergency services 24/7 to complete re-construction services.

Landgraphics, Inc. 9005 SE Saint Helens St. • Clackamas, OR 97015 • (503) 650.0590 • Contact Adam Flint Landgraphics, Inc. is a full service landscape contractor. We provide landscape services to property owners and managers from Southwest Washington through the mid-Willamette Valley. We are fully licensed in all phases of landscape installation and maintenance and have been in business in the Portland Metropolitan area since 1982. Our management staff all have acquired their Bachelor’s degrees in Ornamental Horticulture and we focus on training and employee longevity. From a service standpoint, we strive to provide an aesthetically pleasing exterior environment balancing horticultural needs and realistic budgetary constraints.


2012 Friends of IREM Continued... Lovett Inc. 6920 NE 42nd Avenue • Portland, OR 97218 • (503) SERVICE • Contact Aaron Sawyer LOVETT has been servicing the NW for 15 years now with a unique range of complimentary contractor services ranging from Plumbing, Drain, Excavation, Directional Drilling, Electrical and Restoration and Waterproofing. Our team of specialists are all licensed and bonded. We pride ourselves on our expertise and attention to detail. There is no project too big or small for us to help you or your team with. Showing up on time, working quickly and efficiently for a fair price, and doing the job right the first time, this is how we’ve built our business over the years. For more information about LOVETT visit our website at www.lovettservices.com or call us at 503-SERVICE(737-8423) to schedule us to help with your project today.

Metro Multi-Family Housing Association 16083 SW Upper Boones Ferry Rd. #105 • Tigard, OR 97224 • (503) 213.1281 Contact Deborah Imse Founded in 1992, the Metro Multifamily Housing Association (MMHA) proudly represents residential property managers and vendors throughout Portland, Southern Washington, and down through the Willamette Valley to Medford. Our members manage over 150,000 units in these areas and represent every service related to the industry. MMHA is committed to promoting a high degree of professionalism for rental housing providers. We sponsor educational courses, deliver the most comprehensively reviewed set of forms in the state, and advocate to local and state governments on behalf of the industry to ensure our members the best operating environment possible. Our Members Make the Difference. As a memberdriven association with nearly a dozen committees composed of members and staff, MMHA develops and executes programs and activities that serve members and non-members alike. From our yearly conference and tradeshows to our continually reviewed set of rental forms, the association strives to equip residential property managers with the knowledge and skills necessary to stay successful. Our members stay abreast of changes, network and play a defining role in the future of the multifamily housing industry through their participation with the Metro Multifamily Housing Association. As the association grows with the region, we will continue to provide a strong and unified voice for residential property managers and those interested in maintaining the vitality of multifamily housing.

Millennium Building Services 5909 N. Cutter Circle • Portland, OR 97217 • (503) 281-1949 • Contact Stan Shelton Millennium Building Services, Inc. is a Portland-based company that provides a full range of services including Contract Janitorial, Carpet & Furniture Cleaning, Hard Surface Floor Care, Day Porter Services, Water Damage Restoration, Hazardous Waste Clean-Up, High-Rise Window Cleaning, Construction Clean- Up, Routine Maintenance & Handyman Services, Pressure Washing, Parking Lot & Interior Lighting Maintenance and 24 Hour Emergency Response Services.


2012 Friends of IREM Continued... Mt. Hood Window Coverings P. O. Box 1075 • Sandy, OR 97055 • (503) 668-4181 • (800) 537-4907 • Contact Richard Meyer/Doug Martin Commercial * Residential * Multifamily * Institutional * Tenant Improvements * New Construction Mt. Hood Window Coverings is a full service window coverings company supplying new draperies, mini blinds, verticals, solar shades, and all other types of cellular and pleated shades. Mt Hood Window Coverings specializes in “Ultra-Sonic” blind cleaning, repairs and refurbishing. These services are provided to help maintain your existing window treatments as well as to enhance your office and all other living and working environments. We have qualified Service Technicians and highly knowledgeable Sales Representatives. Feel free to contact us with any questions or requests

National Maintenance Contractors 7405 SW Tech Center Dr., Suite 120 • Tigard, OR 97223 • (503) 601-3131 – Contact Gregg McDonald / Steve Dost “We’ll Make Your Life Easier” National Maintenance Contractors is a full-service commercial janitorial building maintenance company. We have been in business for over 30 years and have office locations in Portland, Seattle, and Spokane. National has the experience, size, and structure to properly service accounts of any size and scope. As an industry leader with low janitor turnover, you will feel comfortable and secure knowing that your facilities are cleaned consistently each and every time with the same highly trained and experienced cleaners. Our quality control and follow-up communication system is second to none. All of our management and operations staff use a web-based work order communication system that utilizes e-mail, Blackberry cell phones, telephone as well as direct personal contact to insure quality. We have the resources to provide excellent 24 hour / 7 day per week emergency response for those situations that occur after scheduled hours. In addition to nightly janitorial service we also provide carpet cleaning, hard floor cleaning, window washing, day porter service, and construction cleaning services. We have recently developed a new product called Encase, which is a grout restoration treatment for tile floors. The Encase process makes old, dingy and discolored grouted flooring look brand new for substantially less than installing a new floor. Encase protects the grout against discoloration, odor and mildew and has anti-microbial protection. Contact Gregg McDonald (gregg.mcdonald@natmainco.com) or Steve Dost (steven.dost@natmainco.com) at (503) 601-3131 for more information.

Oregon-Aire, Inc. 7715 NE 33rd Drive, Suite A • Portland, OR 97211• (503) 335-2222 • Contact Rich Dall or Jim McDonald Oregon-Aire, Inc. was established in 1986 and is a leading provider of HVAC systems and LonWorks-based Building Automation Systems to commercial and industrial customers in Oregon and Washington. As an authorized LonWorks Systems Integrator, Oregon-Aire, Inc. is proud to represent LonWorks-based Building Automation Systems in the Northwest. Oregon-Aire specializes in the design, installation, repair and maintenance of all major types and brands of HVAC systems. Our goal at Oregon-Aire is to increase the value of our clients’ assets through proper maintenance and management of their HVAC assets. We are especially proud to be actively involved and associated with our good friends at IREM.


2012 Friends of IREM Continued...

Oregon Refuse & Recycling Association 680 State Street, Suite 100 • Salem OR 97301 • Mail to: PO Box 2186 • Salem, OR 97308-2186 • (503) 588-1837 ORRA is a voluntary member association representing solid waste management companies, including garbage and recycling collectors, landfills, transfer stations, composters and material recovery facilities that provide services to residential and business customers across the state of Oregon.

Pacific Landscape Management 21555 NW Amberwood Dr, Hillsboro, OR 97124 • (503) 648-3900 contact Peter May • (503) 648-3900 Locally owned and operated, Pacific Landscape Management is one of the leading landscape management companies in the nation. We serve over 300 commercial and HOA properties in Portland metro area with a passion for service and technical expertise. Our experienced and motivated team is the most experienced and stable in the local area. This ensures you the most thoughtful and cost effective solutions to your landscape needs. Through our efforts to become a more sustainable company and provide more sustainable services to our clients, we were also selected as one of Portland’s greenest companies by Oregon Business. As an industry leader, our sustainable programs are used as a model throughout the country. We have received the Sustainable Company Award from our national trade association PLANET. If you are looking for a company to do more than just “mow your lawn”, look to Pacific Landscape Management to manage you landscape assets, protecting your investment and maximizing its benefit to your bottom line. For more information, at 503-648-3900

Pavement Maintenance Inc. 10100 NE Marx Street • Portland, OR 97220 • (503) 257-9257 • Contact Jeff Miller Portland, Oregon’s premier, full-service parking lot Maintenance Company. Pavement Maintenance, Inc., along with our Metro Sweeping division, is the premier, full service parking lot maintenance company in the Portland/Vancouver metro area. Our company has the capacity to handle any size job with modern, specialized trucks & equipment and experienced, well-trained staff. We regularly maintain: Shopping Centers, Office Buildings, Industrial Parks, Parking Garages, Mobile Home Parks, Grocery Stores, Medical Buildings, Apartment Communities, Subdivisions and Private Driveways. We at Pavement Maintenance, Inc., are proud of the quality and reliability of service that we provide. Through effective management techniques and innovative maintenance solutions, Pavement Maintenance, Inc., can help you maximize your valuable asphalt maintenance dollars. Our professional management team can give you written recommendations along with cost estimates for short, medium and long term time frames which will both enhance the appearance of your property and extend the life of the asphalt. As a full service "Pavement Maintenance" company, we can reduce the need to deal with multiple vendors with varying degrees of dependability.


2012 Friends of IREM Continued... Perlo Construction 16101 SW 72nd Avenue, Suite 200 • Portland, OR 97224 | 503.624.2090 • www.perlo.biz • Contact Shannen Williams Rappold Perlo Construction is a full service general contractor and construction management company headquartered in Portland, Oregon. Since the 1950’s, the company has been providing professional and exceptional quality commercial projects and new buildings such as warehouses, distribution centers, auto dealerships, manufacturing facilities, offices, business parks, retail stores, healthcare buildings and specialty projects. We also perform tenant improvements and existing building renovations. Perlo is capable of providing services in all locations to serve our clients and is currently licensed in Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, California, Nevada, Arizona and Kentucky.

Raindrop Supply: a Division of Expresso Building Services 18252 SW 100th Court • Tualatin, OR 97062 • (503) 310.9048 Based in Tualatin, Oregon, Raindrop Supply is a distributor of environmentally friendly janitorial supplies and paper products to commercial, retail, and industrial properties throughout the Portland metropolitan area. Founded in July 2008, Raindrop Supply was the offspring of Expresso Building Services, a successful janitorial contractor in the Portland metro area. Since founding Expresso in 1990, David Servatius had built a robust janitorial supply and paper business through Expresso’s janitorial accounts and the idea of creating a separate distribution company became an attractive business strategy. Neal Humphrey was appointed General Manager of Raindrop in March 2011, after helping David establish and manage the company through the early phases of start-up. Prior to assuming this position, Neal served for several years as the Operations Manager for Expresso Building Services. Neal has also held positions in Product Management and Management Consulting for industry-leading companies such as Intuit, Inc., Ericsson Inc., and Andersen Consulting. Neal earned a BBA in Finance and an MBA from Texas A&M University. Since appointing Neal to the position of General Manager, David Servatius has assumed an advisory and consultative role. Prior to founding Raindrop, David successfully built Expresso Building Services from an idea into a multimillion dollar enterprise, and one of the most successful and well-respected janitorial contractors in Portland. David also came from the technology industry and was a certified facilities manager for Applied Materials and Techtronix. David earned an MBA from Marylhust University, with a specialization in Entrepreneurship, and a Bachelor’s degree in Management from Texas Tech University. Our mission is to become the “green” janitorial distributor of choice in the Portland metropolitan area, while exceeding our customer’s expectations for service, reliability, product knowledge, and support. We will always promote the use of environmentally sustainable products and processes to minimize the impact of our company and products on the environment.

Service Master Solutions 16570 SW 72nd Avenue • Portland , OR 97224 • (971) 244.8673 At ServiceMaster Solutions, we’ve been providing Portland cleaning and building maintenance services since 1983. By focusing on our customer’s unique needs, we’ve grown right along with them. Providing janitorial services to hundreds of metro area businesses and managers each year has made us experts in building maintenance & cleaning services in Portland. Contact us today for your free estimate. We offer commercial cleaning ,healthcare cleaning, and building maintenance in the Portland region.


2012 Friends of IREM Continued... Snyder Roofing P. O. Box 23819 • Portland, OR 97281 • (503) 620-5252 • Contact Richard Schleis Founded in 1922, Snyder Roofing and Sheet Metal Inc. specializes in commercial, industrial, and institutional roofing, waterproofing and concrete restoration. Approved by all of the major manufacturers, our technicians are continually receiving training in the latest technological developments in all phases of our areas of expertise. Being the largest commercial roofing & waterproofing contractor in the Pacific Northwest and with a project management team with over 200 years of combined experience, no project is too large or complicated. Please visit our website at www.snyderroofing.com.

Squires Electric, Inc. 1001 SE Division Street Suite 1 • Portland, OR 97202 • (503) 252.1609 We are the full service electrical contractor for all your residential and commercial needs. At Squires Electric we take pride in our professional and efficient service. We bring the innovative ideas and expertise you need to make your project successful.

The Brickman Group 20395 SW Stafford Road • Tualatin, OR 97062 • (503) 638.9988 Enhancing the American Landscape since 1939, Brickman is a leader in the commercial landscape industry. With over 160 branches serving 29 states, every Brickman client, large or small, benefits from responsive local service, backed by abundant nationwide resources. Brickman's proven, systematic approach to maintenance assures we deliver consistent, value-based service no matter what your budget. Founded on a family tradition of service, Brickman is driven by a passion to delight the customer, consistently exceeding their expectations.

The Oregonian 1320 SW Broadway • Portland, OR 97201-3411• (503) 221-8273 The Oregonian, founded in 1950, is the largest daily newspaper in the Northwest. The Oregonian provides classified and display advertising geared for results! Our experienced team of advertising specialists assist with advertising design and content. The Oregonian offers the lowest retail cost per thousand rates among the top 30 metropolitan newspapers in the nation. The Oregonian now provides rental classifieds online from both the daily and Sunday newspaper at Oregon’s leading local content website, Oregonlive.com. For more information, please contact Brian Johnson at (503) 221-8443 or fax (503) 221-8273.

Township-United Building Services 1750 SW Skyline Blvd., Suite #9 • Portland, OR 97221 • (503) 292.8391 Contact: Matt Beilstein Township-United Building Services, LLC is a professional contract cleaning and engineering company which was established in 1958 by John Gill, the current CEO/President. They offer a full platform or integrated services to provide a client – focused and comprehensive recourse for our customers. In addition to commercial janitorial services, they perform floor care, window washing, light maintenance, handyman services, and engineering services. Township services a wide array of facilities including but are not limited to government buildings, labs, bio-tech facilities, clean-rooms, court buildings, manufacturing faculties, medical buildings, hospitals, industrial facilities, Class A and B office.


2012 Friends of IREM Continued... USI Northwest 700 NE Multnomah, Suite 1300 • Portland, OR 97232 (503) 224.8390 USI is committed to being the preeminent independent insurance brokerage solution for businesses in the U.S. USI continues to fulfill its mission of creating value, managing risk and building net worth for our clients, providing world-class expertise and service in commercial insurance and risk management consulting, surety, employee benefits consulting and brokering services, retirement plan services, executive benefits, business continuation planning and private client serves.

Walter E. Nelson Company 5937 N. Cutter Circle • Portland, OR 97217 • (503) 285-3037 Founded in 1945, Walter E. Nelson Company is the largest family-owned janitorial, chemical and paper distributor in the Pacific Northwest. With a focus on superior customer service values and expert assistance, we’re much more than a run-of-the-mill supplier. We consider our customers partners in mutual success, as we help you gain the supplies and knowledge you need to achieve the maximum benefit from your janitorial or paper products program. Offering you many options and viable solutions for your objectives, we help your business prosper. The Walter E. Nelson Company has the finest products, services, facilities, and, above all, the best people to serve your janitorial, paper, chemical and packaging supply needs. Contact Stan Shelton at (503)285-3037 or fax (503) 285-4373.

Western States Fire Protection Co. 13896 Fir Street, #B • Oregon City, OR 97045 • (503) 657-5155 Contact Linda Munson/Tom Hutchins Western States Fire Protection is a known leader in the fire protection industry with the knowledge and skills to help you with your fire protection system from start to finish. As a part of API Group Inc., we have become one of the largest most respected providers of fire protection services and systems in the industry. We have a proven track record of performing with skill and quality at cost effective prices as well as the internal resources to stand behind our work. This places us in the unique position to offer our customers creative, common-sense approaches to design, installation and service of fire sprinkler and other suppression systems, nationwide. Our inspectors are certified to do inspections on fire protection systems as well as backflow devices which saves our clients money in that they do not have to rely on multiple sources for their system needs. Once inspections are finished, we send copies to the client and the appropriate fire department and/or water purveyor eliminating the need for our clients to deal with the paperwork involved. In turn, we keep copies on file should a copy be lost by the client. We offer 24 hour-a-day, seven day-a-week service and our technicians have the experience to immediately assess damages or problems and decide what is required to resolve any issues with a minimum of “down time.” Our Mission: “Quality Solutions for the protection of lives and property, providing an exceptional value to our customers.”


IREM速 Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29


Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 2012 OFFICERS 2012 President—Kathi A. Pearce, CPM® Kathi Pearce has over 14 years of experience in the property management field. Currently, she serves as a Property Manager at Wyse Investment Services Company and manages commercial office, flex and retail properties. She is responsible for ongoing tenant relationships and retention activities, building maintenance, and day-to-day operations. She is a Certified Property Manager®, and has been actively on the Board of IREM Oregon Columbia River Chapter No. 29 for the past seven years. She is a licensed real estate broker in both Oregon and Washington.

President Elect—Christina DuCote’, CPM®, RPA® Christina DuCoté, an expert property manager with more than 15 years of experience, joined NAI Norris, Beggs & Simpson in 2010. Christina focuses on maximizing the performance of each asset, and excels in areas like strategic planning, financial analysis and lease negotiations. Prior to joining NAI NBS, Christina was a Senior Property Manager at The Muller Company in San Diego. There, she managed a diverse portfolio of Class A office and mixed-use properties, managing more than a million square feet at one time. Achievements included maintaining an average 90% occupancy during fluctuating market cycles, and negotiating lower contracts by an average of 5% on all bids while managing on-site operations during construction. Christina was honored with The Office Building of the Year (TOBY) Award by the Building Owners and Managers Association (BOMA) of San Diego in 2008. The award recognizes quality in office buildings and rewards excellence in their management. She is the Institute of Real Estate Management (IREM) Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 President-Elect and Inaugural Dinner Chair. Christina holds a bachelor of arts in economics from San Diego State University and is a licensed Oregon Real Estate Broker. She has earned the prestigious designations of Real Property Administrator (RPA) through BOMI International and Certified Property Manager (CPM) through IREM.

Vice President Finance—Stephanie MacPherson, CPMC® Stephanie MacPherson brings a comprehensive scope of services to both tenants and owners. She excels in tenant communication and exceeds even the toughest client expectations. As a veteran of the Felton Portfolio, Stephanie provides management for three Class A buildings in Portland’s downtown core that are home to nearly 200 tenants. She not only assisted with building renovations while working closely between tenants and ownership, but also stayed within budget on year-end financials. Stephanie was instrumental as a liaison between ownership, tenants, TriMet and the City of Portland as the downtown Transit Mall fronting all four of the buildings in the portfolio was completely reconstructed. Stephanie was recognized as Rookie of the Year by Felton Properties in 2006, and has worked closely with NAI Norris, Beggs & Simpson’s brokerage division in addition to the property management department. Stephanie serves as the Vice President of Finance for the Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 of the Institute of Real Estate Management.


Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 2012 OFFICERS Continued…. Vice President Communications—Jocelyn Burmester, CPMC® Jocelyn Burmester serves Wyse Investment Services Company as a commercial property manager and has been with the company since 2005. Her portfolio includes office, retail, flex properties throughout the Portland metro area. She has been actively involved in operations, leasing, tenant and capital improvements projects and acquisition due diligence. Burmester received her Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration with an option in Marketing and minor in Written English from Oregon State University. In addition, she is a licensed real estate broker in the state of Oregon and Washington and is a member of the Commercial Association of Realtors. Also, Jocelyn is a candidate to become a CPM through IREM. In 2012, she served as Vice President of Communications for the IREM OregonColumbia River Chapter 29 and has been Committee Chair of the IREM Young Professionals since 2009.

Vice President Member Services—Kimberly Fuhrer, CPM® Kimberly is a Senior Real Estate Manager with CBRE, Inc., joining the firm in April of 2011. Her portfolio consists of approximately 4 and ½ million square feet of Class A industrial assets in the Portland area. Prior to CBRE, Inc, Kimberly worked with NAI Norris, Beggs & Simpson. Having been a property manager since 1993, she specialized in mixed-use commercial and residential buildings. Kimberly holds a brokers license in Oregon, and a salesperson’s license in Washington and is a member of the Commercial Association of Realtors. Kimberly is also a Certified Property Manager and a Certified Commercial Investment Member candidate. Kimberly has served as Vice President of Education for our chapter, and for the past two years as the Vice President of Membership, launching the “got iIREM?” campaign. In addition, Kimberly has been the chair of the Chapter’s golf tournament for the past 2 years.

Vice President Education—Troy Rappold, CPM® Troy Rappold received his Bachelor's degree from the University of Colorado. In 1999 he moved to Portland and began working with Enterprise Rent-A-Car. A great company and many important business lessons were learned. But wanting to tap his inner entrepreneur, he began a property management company in the spring of 2005. Thus was born Rappold Property Management, LLC. The company specializes in residential and multi-family housing in the greater Portland metro area. Troy received his Certified Property Manager (CPM®) designation in 2008 and the company received the Certified Residential Management Company (CRMC®) designation from NARPM in 2012.

ARM Chair—Yuliana Sulistio, ARM® Yuliana Sulistio currently serves as the Assistant Manager at Sterling Pointe Apartments, a community with 630 units in Beaverton, Oregon for GSL Properties Inc. She is responsible the financial aspects of the property as well as assists the manager with employee training. She has been with GSL Properties and in the property management field for eight years. Yuliana has been an ARM for seven years and has been involved with the Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 for five years serving as the ARM Coordinator in 2008 and 2009 and as the ARM® Chair in 2010 to present.


Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 2012 OFFICERS

Continued...

1st Member at Large—Debra McCracken, CPM® Debra McCracken joined NAI Norris, Beggs & Simpson ‘s property management department in 2001. Debra is a licensed sales associate in Oregon and Washington with more than 15 years of experience. She has handled portfolio’s of over one-million square feet consisting of office, retail and industrial properties. Throughout Debra’s career, she has specialized in overseeing major capital improvement projects. Interior renovations and full elevator modernization are a few examples of her experience supervising tenant improvements. Debra earned her Certified Property Manager (CPM) designation through the Institute of Real Estate Management in 2006 and was the Chapter President for the Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 in 2011. Debra is also a member of BOMA, CAR, OAR, WAR and NAR.

2nd Member at Large – Chad Rheingold, CPM® Chad Rheingold, Vice President, has been with WISCO since 2000 and serves WISCO as an asset and property manager. For the past sixteen years, he has worked in Portland in the property management field and prior to that, Rheingold spent several years with a large East-Coast firm that developed , managed and operated regional shopping centers. Rheingold brings to WISCO a strong background in accounting. Rheingold attended Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts and has obtained the Certified Property Manager (CPM ®) designation from the Institute of Real Estate Management (IREM). He has been actively involved in the Institute’s Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 for the past six years and was the Chapter President in 2009. In addition. Rheingold is licensed as a real estate broker in Oregon and Washington and is a member of the Commercial Association of Realtors (CAR).

3rd Member at Large – Julie Muir, CPM® Julie L. Muir, CPM is a Senior Property Manager with Elliott Associates, Inc. Ms. Muir manages 29 properties, consisting of 1.5 million square feet of retail and office in 7 states and has over 29 years’ experience in the real estate management profession. Ms. Muir is passionately involved in IREM both locally and nationally. Her IREM volunteerism includes facilitating the ETH800 course, Chapter President 2003 and many other committees since 1998 to present. Nationally, Ms. Muir served as IREM’s Regional Vice President in 2005 and 2006, served as Vice-Chair of the RVP Committee in 2007, was the first Chair of the Star Chapter Grading and Evaluation Team in 2007 and has served on the National Executive Committee from 2008 to present. Ms. Muir serves as a Director of the IREM Foundation (IREM’s charitable body) and a National Senior Vice President in addition to being an Instructor Candidate. She was awarded “Certified Property Manager of the Year” in 2001 by the local chapter, and was awarded IREM “Past President of the Year” in 2008 , 2011 and 2012. Ms. Muir has authored many real estate and motivational articles published in the Journal of Property Management (“JPM”) and in 2011 was inducted into IREM’s “Academy of Authors”. In 2010, Ms. Muir was featured in Vol. 2 of 50-Inverview’s book by Michael Levy. Ms. Muir was an integral part of the re-write team for the 16th Edition of the Principles of Real Estate Management, re-released by IREM in 2011.


Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 2012 COMMITTEE CHAIRS AMO Liaison Chair

Debra McCracken, CPM

ARM Coordinator

Tammy Mills, ARM

Community Service Chair

Andrea Wagner, ARM

Forecast Breakfast Chair

Jennifer Gerritz, CPM

Friends of IREM Chair

Benjamin Wickham, CPM

Golf Tournament Chair

Kimberly Fuhrer, CPM

IAE Liaison Chair

Debra McCracken, CPM

Inaugural Dinner Chair

Christina DuCoté, CPM, RPA

Income/Expense Chair

Cary Morris, CPMC 

IYP Co-Chair

Jocelyn Burmester, CPMC

IYP Co-Chair

Lauren Alkire, CPMC

Legislative Chair

Dyann Hamilton, CPM

National Liaison Chair

Cammie Allie, CPM, ARM

Newsletter Chair

Natsumi Shakhman, CPMC

Programs Chair

Dan Bessmer, CPMC

Scholarship Chair

Josie Woo, CPMC


ABOUT

IREM’s

DESIGNATIONS


THE ACCREDITED MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION, AMO The Accredited Management Organization accreditation is the only recognition of excellence given to real estate management firms, and the requirements are now more relevant than ever to real estate managers, their clients, and the assets they manage. To earn the AMO accreditation, real estate management firms must now meet even more standards and abide by a new AMO Code of Professional Ethics - all based on Best Practices: Real Estate Management Service. These best practices provide a reasonable framework for the professional delivery of real estate management services meaning AMO Firms can demonstrate to investors and clients that they don’t just meet the industry standards... they set them. Join the 537 AMO firms, with more than 1,100 offices worldwide, that hold this distinguished accreditation. Being an AMO now means more than ever. Checklist for Becoming a AMO® Firm Business Stability and Fiscal Responsibility:  Demonstrate business and financial stability by having been in business for at least three years, all of which is verified by an independent credit check.

Executive CPM:  Have a CPM in an executive position who directs and supervises the firm’s real estate management activities.. Education - (must be completed by the Executive CPM) Select one of two options: 

 

Option 1. "Maximizing Profit: Growth Strategies for Real Estate Management Companies"(BDM601) "Today's Leadership Challenges" (HRS603) "Ethics for the Real Estate Manager" (ETH800) or IREM Ethics Online (ETH001)

Option 2.  Successfully completed 701 (offered through 1997)  "Ethics for the Real Estate Manager" (ETH800) or IREM Ethics Online (ETH001), if not previously completed.

Ethics:  Pledge to uphold the Accredited Management Organization® Code of Professional Ethics .

Insurance coverage:  Hold a required amount of depositor’s forgery and alterations coverage and a fidelity bond. Other Requirements:  Submit an AMO® application with the application fee, which is $425.  Submit three Confidential Letters of Recommendation (included in AMO® application).  Meet specific standards for operations of the firm.  Meet specific standards for servicing the client.  Perform 18 of 28 functions relative to operations of the firm, servicing the client, and managing properties.  Be interviewed and recommended for approval by the local IREM® Chapter.


THE ACCREDITED MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION, AMO Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 FEATURED AMO SPONSORS

Elliott Associates, Inc., AMO Deering Management Group Inc. , AMO Norris & Stevens, AMO Bluestone & Hockley RE Services, AMO Wyse Investment Services, Inc., AMO Quantum Residential, Inc., AMO InvestWest Management Company, AMO Income Property Management Co., AMO Kidder Mathews, AMO NAI Norris, Beggs & Simpson, AMO


THE ACCREDITED MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION, AMO Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 AMO Firm Members American Management Services, dba Pinnacle, AMO

Invest West Management LLC, AMO

Bennett Management Co., LLC, AMO

Key Property Services, Inc., AMO

Bluestone & Hockley Real Estate Services, AMO

Kidder Mathews, AMO

Bowen Property Management Co., AMO

Marathon Management, Inc., AMO

CBRE, Inc., AMO

Norris & Stevens, Inc., AMO

CPM Real Estate Services Inc., AMO

Norris, Beggs & Simpson, AMO

Commercial Property Management, Inc., AMO

PREM Group, AMO

Cushman & Wakefield of Oregon, AMO

Quantum Residential, Inc., AMO

Deering Management Group, Inc., AMO

Simpson Property Group L.P., AMO

Elliott Associates, Inc., AMO

Ted Durant & Associates, Inc., AMO

ESP Property Factors, Inc., AMO

The Management Group Inc., AMO

Guardian Management LLC, AMO

US Bank Corporate Real Estate Portland, AMO

Grubb & Ellis Management Services, Inc., AMO

Wyse Investment Services Co., AMO

Income Property Management Co., AMO


ASSOCIATE MEMBERSHIP

Do you work in the real estate management industry and want to get to know IREM – the leading professional association representing industry and all property types? Interested in a career in real estate management and want to get a taste of the industry? Working toward an IREM credential, but not ready to apply? Then the Associate membership is right for you! Here’s what you get when you join IREM: 

An instant connection to a network of 18,000 industry leaders and professionals through your local chapter, through national IREM conferences, and online with IREMFIRST.org.  The latest and most relevant real estate management information, written by IREM Members and other industry experts and analysts, delivered directly to your mailbox and your inbox with the Journal of Property Management.  Your Choice. Your Pace. Your Program. Receive members-only discounts on the most relevant education and credentialing opportunities in the marketplace with IREM ED.  Need professional resources? IREMFIRST.org has a wealth of forms and tools that will help you do your job more effectively and efficiently - and the best part - they are free to members! And much more! For more information about the benefits of IREM membership, visit the Member Benefits page at: www.irem.org Associate membership is available to U.S. applicants only. Vendors, suppliers and service providers to the real estate management industry are not eligible for Associate membership.


2012 ACADEMIC MEMBERS Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29

SUNNY LISTON

MARYLHURST UNIVERSITY

2012 ASSOCIATE MEMBERS Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29

MELANIE ADRIAN

TRACEY RITCHIE

PAUL BULANOV

NICOLE SMITH

MARIANN DEERING

MITCHELL SORENSON

DAVID JORDAN

JEFFRY STILES

DAVID KIERSEY

DAMIN TARLOW

JAMES PAUL

ERLIN TAYLOR

DANIEL POTTER

KIMBERLEE TYACKE


THE ACCREDITED RESIDENTIAL MANAGER, ARM Regarded as the most recognized credential for residential real estate managers, the ARM certification is your ticket to new opportunities. Those who hold the ARM certification continue to believe that the investment they made in earning the certification pays off.

   

Employers value those who choose to develop their skills. You can keep in touch with new solutions and technologies in the industry. The experience and knowledge you demonstrate to earn the ARM certification assures employers that you possess the specialized skills they seek in residential managers. Earning the ARM certification will help you advance in your real estate management career regardless of your current level.

Vendors, suppliers and service providers to the real estate management industry are not eligible for ARM membership. Apply to become an ARM after you have completed the requirements listed below. .

Checklist for Becoming an ARM Education – choose one of five options: Option 1

Option 2

Option 3

Option 4

Complete week long course:

Complete four courses:

RES201 Course schedules

MNT402, HRS402 , FIN402, MKL405

Hold a CPM, CAM, CRM, or RAM designation

If you took IREM courses prior to 2005, find out which of these courses earn credit by reviewing the ARM Course Equivalency Chart

Option 5

Have an undergradu- Complete: ate or graduate degree in real estate or CID201 property management, or an associate's degree in a non -commercial property or real estate management program.

Examination : Pass the ARM certification exam Ethics

Complete IREM ethics education in 1 of 4 ways:

   

Complete RES201 Complete ETH001 Complete ETH800 and pass exam Complete CID201

Pledge to uphold the IREM Code of Professional Ethics Experience Have 1 year (12 months) of qualifying residential real estate management experience as defined by IREM (meeting portfolio and functions minimums) Other Requirements

Submit an ARM application with the non-refundable application fee, which is $80.

Submit three Confidential Letters of Recommendation (included in ARM application).

Be interviewed and recommended for approval by your IREM Chapter.


2012 ACCREDITED RESIDENTIAL MANAGERS, ARM速 Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 CAMMIE ALLIE

SHARON HIGH

CATHERINE MILES

CHERYL RANDALL

RUTH ANDERSON

HOLLY HILDENBRAND

TAMMY MILLS

MARTIN REBHAH,

CHRISTOPHER BARBER

SHELLY HILLMAN

DIANE MILLS

REBECCA REED

FRANCESCA BARRETT

RACHEL HUBER

JENNIFER NEILSON

LAURA SCHAEFER

LAURA BARRY

ERIC JARVEY

KELLY PAINE

SHANNON SCHMIDT

ASHLEY BELLINGER

ERIC JOHNSON

JANN PATE

JENNIFER SIMMONS

ALISON BRIZENDINE

DUANE JORDAN

JANET PETERSEN

LATONYA SMITH

BOBBY JO CARRILLO

JOHN KEBA

FELICIA POE

CHRISTOPHER SONSTENG

BENJAMIN CRANE

DAMON KENYON

ADRIAN POSEY

YULIANA SULISTIO

RHONDA CRAWFORD

KEN KOWALSKI

BETSY POTT

QUIN TRICK

AMANDA EDWARDS

GAIL LAFOY

INGRID POWELL

HEATHER TSUGAWA

LYNN FALLER

MELODY LARUE

JOSHUA PRESTON

ANDREA WAGNER

CORINA FERRIS

CARRIE LEWIS

AMY PRICE

SANDRA WEBB

CARRIE GLOVKA

KALIB LOCKE

JEROMY PUCKETT

AUBREE YOUNG

GRANT HAMBLIN

DAVIDE MCCABE

MARGO RAMS

NICHOLAS YUVA


THE CERTIFIED PROPERTY MANAGER, CPM The challenges in today’s job market—from industry consolidation and increased competition to being expected to do more with less—make it harder for you to prove your experience and your credibility. The CPM designation can demonstrate your expertise and integrity to those who matter most—employers, owners and investors. 

CPM Members are recognized as experts in real estate management, and they are at the top of the profession.  70% of those who hold the CPM designation hold the highest management positions (owner/partner or officer/director) than those without the designation. Total median compensation packages for CPM Members can exceed the packages of CPM Candidates of the same age, the same amount of experience and education, and with similar portfolio sizes by at least 13% and, in some brackets, by as much as 45%. Step 1. Become a CPM Candidate The first step in becoming a CPM is to become a CPM Candidate. As a Candidate, you’ll be a member of IREM, including a local IREM Chapter, and you’ll stay informed about your progress toward fulfilling the requirements for the CPM designation. Here’s all you need to do to become a CPM Candidate: 

Complete the CPM Candidate application online or print a PDF of the application and send it to IREM Headquarters with the non-refundable application fee, which is $160.  Either hold a real estate license or validate that you are not required to have one. Pledge to uphold the IREM Code of Professional Ethics. Vendors, suppliers and service providers to the real estate management industry are not eligible for CPM candidacy. Apply Today!


THE CERTIFIED PROPERTY MANAGER, CPM Continued... Step 2. Once you are approved as a Candidate, continue towards completion of the CPM requirements. Refer to the checklist below or download and print a copy:

Checklist for Becoming a CPM Education – Select one of four options: Option 1: Complete seven required courses – available in classroom, online and self-paced.

Option 2: Other Designations Fast Track Hold a CCIM, CSM, PCAM, or RPA designation

Recommended order: MKL404 or MKL405 or MKL406

Option 3: RE Degree Fast Track

HRS402 MNT402

FIN402

property management Details about the CPM Fast Tracks.

Have an undergraduate or graduate degree in real estate or

ASM603 ASM604 ASM605 Course schedules If you took IREM courses prior to 2005, find out which of these courses earn credit by reviewing the CPM Course Equivalency Chart Note: This is the suggested order, however, courses listed in 1 through 3 can be taken in any combination and/or out of sequence if necessary or if scheduling is not convenient.

Option 4: Professional Experience Fast Track Have 20 years of qualifying professional experience (as verified via experience reports and approved by chapter)

Management Plan - Select one of two options. For more information, and to download the Management Plan Handbook, visit www.irem.org.

Option 1

Option 2

Pass management plan on an actual property (MPIND)

Pass management plan skills assessment (MPSA).

Examination Pass the CPM certification exam To ensure your best performance on the exam, register for the CPM Certification Exam Preparation Course (CPM001).


THE CERTIFIED PROPERTY MANAGER, CPM

Continued...

Ethics

Attend ETH800 and pass exam Pledge to uphold the IREM Code of Professional Ethics

References

Submit 3 Confidential Letters of Recommendation (provided at the time of candidacy approval)

Experience

3 years (36 months) of qualifying real estate management experience as defined by IREM (portfolio and functions minimums)

Candidacy

Minimum one year of CPM candidacy (maximum 10 years)

Other Requirements

     

Submit a CPM application with the application fee, which is $210. Be current with annual national and chapter dues. (national dues are $490; chapter dues vary by chapter.) Hold a real estate license or verify that you are not required to have one for your current position. Be affiliated with the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Attend two IREM Chapter meetings or events during the 12 months immediately prior to CPM approval. Be interviewed and approved by your IREM Chapter.


2012 CERTIFIED PROPERTY MANAGERS, CPM速 Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 CARRIE AADLAND

LYNN BLANKENSHIP

CHRISTINA DUCOTE

DYANN HAMILTON

KAREN ALEXANDER

GENE BOWERS

TED DURANT

MARK HARRIS

CAMMIE ALLIE

SUMER BRADLEY

STANLEY ELLIOTT

MICHAEL HAVLIK

JOHN AMOS

BEVERLY BRANDON

ROBERT FABIAN

DOUGLAS HENDERSON

JOSEPH ANDERSON

THOMAS BRENNEKE

BEVERLY FOSTER

SCOTT HENSELMAN

CRAIG ANDERSON

PAUL BRETT

KIMBERLY FUHRER

DAVID HEWETT

CINI APOSTOL

ALIXANDRA BREVIG

KIM GACH

CLIFFORD HOCKLEY

HERBERT ARATHOON

KELLEY BREWSTER

REBECCA GARDNER

BERND HOFFMANN

MICHAEL ARENA

JEFFREY BROWN

TRACEY GEDLICH

NOAH HOLZ

JOHN BALLAS

GARY CALVERT

DAVID GENRICH

SUSAN IGGULDEN

STEPHEN BARBER

MARK CHRISTIANSON

LAURA GENTRY

JACOB JOHNSON

WILLIAM BARENDRICK MONIQUE CLOUSER

JENNIFER GERRITZ

ROBERT JOHNSON

TY BARKER

PATRICE COOK

SCOTT GIBBS

KAREN JOSS

TAMMY BARNHOUSE

JOHN COX

JESSICA GIES

JAMES KAUTZ

DOUGLAS BEAN

BENJAMIN CRANE

JANET GRAAFF

JOHN KEBA

THOMAS BECHTELL

KAREN CZOPEK

MICHAEL GREENINGER DONNA KELLEY

ROBERT BENNETT

E. THOMAS DAVIES

RICHARD GRESS

DENNIS KERR

ANSEL BERRI

JEFFREY DENSON

TINA GUSTAFSON

DAVID KEYS

WENDIE BILLINGS

DOLF DEVOS

PHILLIP HACKWORTH

SCOTT KILLIAN


2012 CERTIFIED PROPERTY MANAGERS, CPM® Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 Continued…….. RALPH (KIRBY) KIRCH

MAIJA MUELLER

VICKI RISING

DIEDRE WELLS

WADE LANGE

JULIE MUIR

WALTER RIVERS

BENJAMIN WICKHAM

JOLEENE LARSON

DAN MULLIN

SYLVIA ROLL

JONATHAN WICKIZER

LOUISE LAUMAN

MICHAEL MYERS

ROBINN RUDD

JOHN WINQUIST

CINDY LAURILA

RANDALL NORGART

MARY RUSSELL

DAVID WRIGHT

LISETTE LEVICH

FRED NORMANDIN

JOSEPH SANDAHL

NATHAN LEVIN

GARY O'CONNELL

BRETT SHOCKEY

CPM® EMERITIS

CAROL (CAROLYN) MAFFEI

JANICE OSTLUND

SHELLY SKIRVIN

O. GENE POWELL

GAYLE MAKIN

DENNIS PARFITT

CLAUDIA SLYTER

CHARLES CONROW

MICHELLE MARTIN

KATHERINE PEARCE

CYNTHIA SPARKS

JANIS SAMSPROBSTFIELD

TRACI MCCAULEY

SCOTT PERRY

MARSHA STEFFEN

LAURENCE SENN

CRAIG MCCONACHIE

JEANNA PETTY

JAMI STERLINGCOUNARD

ROBERT STUTTE

DEBRA MCCRACKEN

TERRY PHILLIPS

LAWRENCE SWEEK

JOSEPH LABADIE

DARREN MCDONALD

MARK POPMA

DAN TAPELLA

JOHN VAN BUSKIRK

MALCOLM MCIVER

LYNN PURDY

MAYNARD TYE

JACK YOUNG

STEPHEN MIKULIC

TROY RAPPOLD

DWIGHT UNTI

CATHERINE MILES

JEFFREY REINGOLD

CARMEN VILLARMA

JOVANNA MORALES

CHAD RHEINGOLD

JOHN WAGNER

RODERICK MOSMAN

TILLMANN RICHTER

LISA WALKER


2012 CERTIFIED PROPERTY MANAGER CANDIDATES Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29

CAROLINA ABDALAH

STEPHEN FORD

KELLY LEVINE

JOSH RUTTER

CHRISTOPHER BARBER

MICHELE GENRICH

STEPHANIE MACPHER- KRISTY SANCHEZ SON

LAURA BARRY

CHRISTOPHER GILSON KRISTE MARTINEZ

JAMES SCHAFF

SARAH BENNETT

MENDELL GOSNELL

EDWARD MATHEWS

KRISTIN SCHAFF

ROBERT BESSMER

SUSAN GRAY

ERIN MCGOUGH

CINDY SCHAFFER

DENISE BOURLAND

KELLY GRAY

GRACE MCNEILLY

NATSUMI SHAKHMAN

VICTORIA BOYLE

LISA GREINER

RICHARD MILLER

AARON SHIELDS

JOCELYN BURMESTER JOANNE GULBRANSON

CARY MORRIS

LATONYA SMITH

AMANDA CLARK

SHELLY HILLMAN

JODY NOLANDER

SARAH SUMRALL

JAIMA COLEMAN

RACHEL HUBER

ANDREA O'NEIL

STEPHEN TERREAULT

ADRIAN COOK

CARMELLA JASKIEWICZ-BYERS

ERIK OLSON

BRET WALTON

NICHOLAS COOK

ERIC JOHNSON

KELLY PAINE

JOSIE WOO

MICHAEL DONAHUE

CAITLIN LANDRUS

FELICIA POE

REBECCA YARGER

AMANDA EDWARDS

ANNA LANGLEY

KRISTA POLVI

SYDNEY YELLE

NUTAN ENGELS

MELODY LARUE

LISELOTTE POZZI

LISA EZELL-RUMMEL

TIFFANY LAVIOLETTE

JASON PULSE


2012 IREM® FORECAST BREAKFAST Oregon-Columbia River Chapter No. 29 PRESENTS:

Master of Ceremonies: Debra Gil, Good Day Oregon

Finance: John Swanson, Umpqua Bank Retail: JJ Unger, NAI Norris Beggs & Simpson Industrial: Paul F. Breuer, SIOR®, Colliers International Multi-Family: Gregory Frick, HFO Office: Mark C. Friel, Jones Lang LaSalle

Guest Speaker: Merritt Paulson Owner—Portland Timbers


DEBRA GIL GOOD DAY OREGON

Debra Gil is an anchor and reporter of FOX 12's Emmy award-winning Good Day Oregon. She has been at KPTV since 2003 and in broadcasting for 30 years. She started her career in San Angelo, Texas (KLST) as a morning anchor, reporter and producer and then went on to El Paso, Texas (KTSM) before moving to central California (KSEE). Debra is active in the community, hosting charity events and speaking to schools. She is married, has a daughter who attends Portland State University, and a dog they rescued from a shelter. Debra is an avid sports fan and closely follows the Trail Blazers, Timbers, Winterhawks and PSU Vikings. Debra enjoys travel, reading, movies and shopping. When she's not doing one of those things, you might find her walking one of the many trails in Forest Park. "What's not to love about the Northwest and especially the Portland area? It’s beautiful here and I am so blessed to be able to live here." she said.


The 25th 速 Annual IREM Forecast Breakfast FINANCE


JOHN SWANSON UMPQUA BANK

John Swanson is a Senior Vice President and the Commercial Real Estate Division Manager for Umpqua Bank with offices in Seattle, Portland and Walnut Creek. The division was formed in November 2011 to expand Commercial Real Estate lending throughout the Umpqua Bank footprint. John joined Umpqua Bank in July 2010 with more than 30 years in banking, most recently as the Seattle Market Manager for U.S. Bank’s Commercial Real Estate. He has a deep background in commercial banking, and specializes in income property financing. John earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from Washington State University, and has completed various courses with the American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and the Mortgage Bankers Association. John is on the board of Washington Community Reinvestment Association, and a member of multiple organizations, including the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties, Seattle Mortgage Bankers, Pacific Real Estate Institute, and Urban Land Institute. John resides in Edmonds with his wife Pam, has two grown daughters and three grandsons. He enjoys spending time with family, skiing, golfing and soccer.


2013 FINANCIAL REAL ESTATE FORECAST JOHN SWANSON

Imagine early 2006. The real estate finance business in the northwest was continuing to grow. Deals were getting done and life was good. However, by the end of that year, the fallout of subprime mortgage and housing market slowdown were clearly beginning to impact economic conditions, particularly throughout Central California. Umpqua reported in its quarterly market update that Stockton was regarded as the national ‘Ground Zero’ for residential foreclosures. However, moving north, the severity of the housing slump diminished. The Greater Bay Area, Oregon, and Washington’s Puget Sound were generally regarded as some of the few sanctuaries from the economic downturn. From 2006 to 2007 we saw our Commercial Real Estate Loans at Umpqua grow 9%. Interest rates were stable on term loans and all product types were performing well. Then, as we are all too painfully aware, the wheels fell off in 2007 and 2008 as a result of the continued housing crises, further deterioration and defaults of subprime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations, investment bank turmoil, liquidity crises, credit crises, bank failures, foreclosures, etc, etc, etc. These have been covered in detail in many presentations, so I won’t dwell on them here.


The combination of both the economic and market forces resulted in a decrease in demand of CRE loans, which is what ultimately limited our activity in this area. The immediate impact to commercial real estate lending at Umpqua, and many other banks, was significant especially related to construction loans. Our production of CRE loans while decreasing 12% over the next 4 years, remains surprisingly steady when considering normal loan amortization and charge offs. Assets Grow While CRE Loans Decline ‘000 (Billion)

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However, as a result of the dramatic reduction in demand and oversupply of inventory, Umpqua’s residential development loans dropped 86% between 2006 and 2011.This decrease was the result of a swift decision by executive management to recognize the major market shift occurring for a variety of reason (see paragraph 4) and reduce our exposure to that product type. The fallout was quick as our level of our nonperforming loans (which includes loans 90 days past due and non accruals) increased over twentyfold from 2006 to 2009. Thanks to management’s early recognition of these problems, and decisive action by key people in our bank, we changed direction. Swiftly and decisively, the bank focused on reducing exposure in geographical areas where the imbalance between supply and demand for certain types of real estate was evident.

2013 Finance Forecast—John Swanson

Problem Loans Grow as Residential Development Loans Dramatically Decline ‘000

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As a result of this and other proactive decisions by Umpqua’s management team, we are one of the nation’s strongest banks, even stronger than we were before the crisis began – and able to continue lending and growing. Unfortunately, not all banks moved that quickly. And although there are a variety of reasons for bank failures, far away the biggest factor in the Pacific Northwest was problem real estate loans.

The entire market was impacted by 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Subprime Investment Bank Turmoil Liquidity Crisis Credit Crisis Bank Failures Foreclosures etc, etc, etc…

Now that we have clear picture from our rear view mirror, what is the view looking out the windshield? This view, the view of recovery, started in 2010. At that time Cort O’Haver joined Umpqua Bank as the EVP in charge of Commercial Banking. Cort had many goals in mind, not the least of which was to increase the level of commercial lending across the Umpqua footprint. He recognized the demand for loans would improve as the economy did, and wanted to position Umpqua to take advantage of new opportunities. In addition to expanding and creating other groups he started a Commercial Real Estate Division to specialize in investor real estate. It was clear the economy was improving, and the quality real estate developers who had survived (and in some cases thrived) would need financing for their projects. 4

In 2010 we expanded our teams specializing in investor real estate from one Portland group to a team in Seattle. In 2012 we opened our Walnut Creek office, covering Northern California.

Umpqua CRED Offices Puget Sound Portland

N. California

5

2013 Finance Forecast—John Swanson


Not only is Umpqua Bank lending on CRE there is an increase nationally by lenders with life companies, pension funds, banks and commercial mortgage backed securities all active in the market. The comment I often make to our clients is it’s a great time to be a borrower. In the metro markets Umpqua serves (Portland, Seattle and the Bay Area), vacancies in apartments, office, industrial and retail are all trending down. There is an increased demand for Commercial Real Estate loans, and even construction loans, for new developments.

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We now have 20 associates in our Commercial Real Estate Division, which is headquartered in Seattle. So you may ask: are we really doing deals? And the answer is yes as evidenced by our year over year growth rate of 147% from 2010 to 2011 and 142% from 2011 through 2012. 7

2013 Finance Forecast—John Swanson

‘000

Loan Commitments

We are lending on apartments, office, industrial/warehouse, and retail projects. The amount of loans closed since our group was formed exceeds $300,000,000 in commitments. The strength of the apartment market has created the most opportunity for construction and permanent loans, but we have seen a pickup in other building types.

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One common theme with lenders is the appetite for construction loans on speculative projects (no preleasing) is essentially nonexistent. What is our focus for Portland? We are dedicated to this market. In addition to being the home of Umpqua Holdings Corporation, Portland is realizing continued improvement in many areas of the real estate market. It was named by the Urban Land Institute as the 20th best market in the country, and included in the ‘Green’ category (a good thing) for both CRE Investment and CRE Development. In addition, Portland was ranked #5 by Bloomberg out of America’s 50 Best Cities to Live. With drivers like Intel, Providence Health and OHSU, Portland’s unemployment rate has decreased to 7.9% as of August 2012, down from its high of 10%+ in mid 2009. Oregon has benefited from six month in a row of job gains averaging 3,000 jobs per month from January to August 2012 with the majority of jobs added to the Portland area. In addition, Portland’s urban growth boundary limits development, helping to keep certain product supply constrained as evidenced by its low 2.2% vacancy rate in apartments. We feel strongly that Portland continues to provide ample opportunity for construction and permanent loans. Our CRED team in Portland considers all product types. Closed deals include construction and permanent loans on apartments, retail centers, and single purpose projects. Additionally we continue to look for industrial and office projects that meet our lending criteria. Lending parameters include: Loan to Value ratios in the range of 65% to 75%

2013 Finance Forecast—John Swanson

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Loan to Cost ratios in the range of 70% to 80% and Debt Service Coverages ranging from 1.20 on apartments, and 1.30 on office, retail and industrial. For sizing purposes we are using an underwriting rate of 6.5%. Of course, there is always the possibility that these parameters may be somewhat flexible depending on the deal.

Loan sizes range from $5,000,000 and up, although we are very selective on single deals greater than $15,000,000. We have had success on several loans greater than $20,000,000 where we joined with other community banks and structured club deals. We see this approach continuing, allowing us to serve larger developers and limit our concentration risk on any one loan.

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Umpqua is committed to lending on CRE as evidenced by our willingness to build a group dedicated to that effort. Production levels are good and are growing, with all offices generating new business. We are certainly fortunate to be operating in a footprint that has such great cities that are benefiting from the economic recovery. Do I have any concerns? Of course! Anyone that just went through the great recession and doesn’t have concerns must be a developer whose proposed buildings are preleased or presold to Nike or Amazon. As for the rest of us, my concerns, in no particular order, are: 2013 Finance Forecast—John Swanson


1. Uncertainty about the impending fisHeadwinds cal cliff • Uncertainty about the impending fiscal cliff 2. Continued sluggish economic growth • Continued sluggish economic growth • Debt crises in Europe 3. Debt crises in Europe • Continued slowdown in China • Interest rate increases (resulting in over leveraged projects 4. Continued slowdown in China at refinance time) • Potential apartment oversupply in certain markets 5. Interest rate increases (resulting in • Impact to construction lending by new regulations overleveraged projects at refinance time) 6. Potential apartment oversupply in certain markets 7. Impact to construction lending by new regulations

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And although these concerns have the potential to negatively impact our recovery, we feel that the right clients, with the right projects, will still qualify for loans. Do we have further expansion plans? We do. The market for homebuilder finance continues to improve. Sales of single family homes are increasing in the metro markets, and the number of single family housing permits is expected to achieve double digit percentage increases in 2013 and 2014. The regional home builders that have survived, or in some cases, been resurrected are seeing a resurgence in activity.

The future for CRE lending is bright (if no shocks occur)

which supports further expansion Announcing our Homebuilder Finance Group

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2013 Finance Forecast—John Swanson

To help fill the void by some lenders leaving the market, we are in the process of creating a homebuilder finance group. There will be more to report soon, but Umpqua Bank recognizes this as an opportunity to expand our business line. This is further evidence of Umpqua Bank’s commitment to our local markets – and our financial strength, which allows us to continue to expand and lend.


The 25th 速 Annual IREM Forecast Breakfast RETAIL


J.J. UNGER, CLS速 NAI, NORRIS BEGGS & SIMPSON


2013 RETAIL REAL ESTATE FORECAST J. J. UNGER, CLS® I. Retail In the Retail industry shopping centers are Real Estate’s bread and butter. A brick and mortar retail store exists to sell goods and services to the end user, often in Retail Districts and Shopping Centers, which are strategically planned to promote the best and most adaptable location. So this is where I come in, Real Estate Brokers create the ability for shopping centers to transform themselves periodically to satisfy the ever-changing desires and taste of the consumer market. A. Retail is usually classified by type of products as follows: • Food products • Hard goods or durable goods ("hardline retailers") - appliances, electronics, furniture, sporting goods, etc. Goods that do not quickly wear out and provide utility over time. • Soft goods or consumables - clothing, apparel, and other fabrics. Goods that are consumed after one use or have a limited period (typically under three years) in which you may use them. B. There are the following types of retailers by marketing strategy: • Department Stores - very large stores offering a huge assortment of "soft" and "hard goods; often bear a resemblance to a collection of specialty stores. A retailer of such store carries variety of categories and has broad assortment at average price. They offer considerable customer service.

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLS®


Discount Stores - tend to offer a wide array of products and services, but they compete mainly on price offers extensive assortment of merchandise at affordable and cut-rate prices. Normally retailers sell less fashion-oriented brands;

Warehouse Stores - warehouses that offer low-cost, often high-quantity goods piled on pallets or steel shelves; warehouse clubs charge a membership fee;

Variety Stores - these offer extremely low-cost goods, with limited selection;

Demographic - retailers that aim at one particular segment (e.g., high-end retailers focusing on wealthy individuals);

Mom-And-Pop Stores - is a retail outlet that is owned and operated by individuals. The range of products are very selective and few in numbers. These stores are seen in local community often are family-run businesses. The square feet area of the store depends on the store holder;

Specialty Stores - A typical specialty store gives attention to a particular category and provides high level of service to the customers. A pet store that specializes in selling dog food would be regarded as a specialty store; however, branded stores also come under this format. For example: if a customer visits a Reebok or Gap store then they find just Reebok and Gap products in the respective stores;

General Store - a rural store that supplies the main needs for the local community;

Convenience Store - is essentially found in residential areas. They provide limited amount of merchandise at more than average prices with a speedy checkout. This store is ideal for emergency and immediate purchases as it often works with extended hours, stocking everyday;

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLS®


Hypermarkets - provides variety and huge volumes of exclusive merchandise at low margins. The operating cost is comparatively less than other retail formats;

Supermarkets - is a self-service store consisting mainly of grocery and limited products on non food items. They may adopt a Hi-Lo or an EDLP strategy for pricing. The supermarkets can be anywhere between 20,000 and 40,000 square feet (3,700 m2). Example: SPAR supermarket;

Malls - has a range of retail shops at a single outlet. They endow with products, food and entertainment under a roof.

Category Killers Category Specialists - By supplying wide assortment in a single category for lower prices a retailer can "kill" that category for other retailers. For few categories, such as electronics, the products are displayed at the center of the store and sales person will be available to address customer queries and give suggestions when required. Other retail format stores are forced to reduce the prices if a category specialist retail store is present in the vicinity.

E-tailers - The customer can shop and order through internet and the merchandise are dropped at the customer's doorstep. Here the retailers use drop shipping technique. They accept the payment for the product but the customer receives the product directly from the manufacturer or a wholesaler. This format is ideal for customers who do not want to travel to retail stores and are interested in home shopping. However it is important for the customer to be wary about defective products and non secure credit card transaction. Example: Amazon, Pennyful and eBay.

Big Box Stores - encompass larger department, discount, general merchandise, and warehouse stores.

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLS®


The demand for these products and marketing strategy are constantly changing. Discount Stores are on a roll in and office supply stores are on a roll out. With technology at the finger tips of consumers, there are more variables than ever, with which retailers are trying to do their best to adapt to, and only those who don't loose sight of providing the consumer with a positive experience will survive. C. Retailers are now using stores to process web, mobile and catalog orders, and sell over the counter; the space doubles as a fulfillment center. “Omnichannel” retail, the buzzword for this strategy, is bouncing around retailers and shopping center boardrooms quite a bit these days. The idea is to favor no single retail channel (like brick-and-mortar, mobile phone, catalogs, etc.), but instead to sell people things whenever and however they want. The big question is: how do shopping center owners who are only invested in the brick and mortar real estate view this trend? Could this channelneutral retailing undermine demand for leased space or cut into percentage rents? The answer is yes and no, the industry is living by the principle that what is good for the tenant is, ultimately, also good for the landlord. With “omnichannel” retailing, real estate will often be a part of the picture as customers can order online and pick up their merchandise at stores like Best Buy, Sears, Macy’s or Apple, which will maintain traffic to the store and will actually increase in customer experience and overall sales. Although as technology continues to change, it is always important to track its effects on retail and the future of brick and mortar.

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLS®


Earlier this year California was one of the states that passed legislation requiring online retailers to charge sales tax on internet purchases, specifically targeted at Amazon. So we now have brick and mortar retailers focused on selling online and they are downsizing their footprint but then you have Amazon who built its business online who is crossing over to the bricks and mortar world building 950,000 square feet distribution centers and so called fulfillment centers offering same day delivery. I guess The Honey Badger Don't Care. II. National Retail Real Estate Back to basics: the retail real estate market is now slowly approaching recovery that will be decidedly more moderate than in recent cycles. Although, none of the key drivers of retail growth, such as jobs, personal income, housing values, and consumer confidence are likely to grow above trend in the near term on a national front, and historically the state of Oregon lags behind the Nation.

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLSŽ


It's almost like Y2K all over again with the impending fiscal cliff grabbing more than its share of headlines recently, it's obvious that tax increases and spending cuts that are scheduled to take effect in early 2013 are easily capable of undermining the recovery and throwing the U.S. economy into a deeper recession. With that said there are winners and there are losers. The following list came out a couple weeks ago listing the retailers with the highest sales per square foot. I used an app on my Iphone earlier today to measure this ballroom in comparison, it's approximately 17,000sf. If we had this event everyday for a year we would be ranked 9th10th at $1,127.00 sales per square foot. III. Western Division Retail Real Estate Forecast As a commercial real estate broker focusing in retail, I frequently work with brokers in neighboring states, as I currently have a tenant expanding in Utah who may also be looking to expand in Oregon. It’s important to closely follow the entire western division, as it directly affects us here in Oregon, and I am happy to report that most states appear to be in recovery.

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLSŽ


A. The markets of Northern California have continued to recover this past year, albeit in uneven fashion; core Bay Area markets are generally seeing high tenant demand and limited space availability putting an upward pressure on rents. Sacramento and the Central Valley are experiencing recovery in some sub-markets, while others still lag. This is also true for Central and Southern California, as I think we can all agree there is always more demand the closer you are to the beach. Probably the biggest news in California regarding real estate is the sales tax being charged on Amazon purchases. Since Oregon does not have a sales tax, it will be interesting to see how we look at online sales.

B. Utah and Idaho are posed to see consistent improvement and growth, just not at as high as the rates of the recent past. Portland-area developer Centercal, who developed Bridgeport Village, Cascade Station, and Gresham Station developed Station Park in Farmington, UT, which has opened and has additional phases under construction. Centercal’s The Village at Meridian development is also underway in the Boise, Idaho, area. The national economic volatility will continue to impact these states but with quality of life opportunities, lower than national average unemployment and the emerging strength of energy-related projects, Utah and Idaho may well outperform other trade areas of the country and help Oregon in its recovery.

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLSŽ


C. Our most important neighbor is Washington; not only does this state affect our retail sales significantly, it also affects our BCS College football rankings! While Amazon has been viewed as a threat to retail real estate across the globe, in Washington, Amazon’s ascension to one of America’s best companies has been tremendously beneficial, placing nearly 23,000 high paid employees in downtown Seattle and filling up 3.4 million square feet in three new high rise buildings. As Washington continues to be ranked as having one of the top economies in the country, Oregon should benefit as retailers expand in the Seattle area first and then move to Oregon. We saw this with Seattle getting an Urban Target, followed by the Galleria in Portland receiving a Target. Microsoft also rolled out its new concept in Seattle and we will soon see this concept in downtown Portland. What paves the way for these moves is that Washington and Oregon also share some of the same landlords such as Powell Development, Regency, General Growth, and the aforementioned Center Cal. IV. Oregon/Local Retail Real Estate. It is important we know that we are not alone here in Oregon, even though the rest of the U.S. sometimes thinks we don’t exist. Now, I hope you are not bored with my top down approach, as I felt it was important to address the bigger picture before touching on our current conditions. Our economic expansion is still intact, but remains at risk with a slowly recovering unemployment rate. As the housing market is beginning to show signs of life, it is predicted there will still be some bumps in the road to recovery for Oregon.

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLS®


The regional retail market saw slight improvement during Third Quarter of 2012, with a vacancy at 6.82% and 38,117 square feet of positive absorption. Vacancy in the Portland area has hovered under 7% for the past few years, and slow growth continues to be the trend. Oregon kind of has a “catch 22” approach to retail real estate. Retailers love the lack of sales tax, as tourists and Washingtonians like to spend more in Oregon to avoid it. Developers, however, see this as a barrier to entry to develop a new project as the state/cities don’t receive any income from sales tax, so they have no motivation to see the project break ground as those in neighboring states. V. 2013 Forecast for Oregon So what can we expect in 2013? I believe there will be little change to lease rates for Class B-C type centers still recovering from tenants who were able to leave their center and upgrade to an A center over the last 5 years. Tenant demand should increase in 2013, as many were looking in 2012, but a lot of them didn’t pull the trigger on their opportunity, except for those well capitalized such as Walmart, Ross and Dollar Tree. Local retailers will continue to expand as banks ease up on lending requirements that have slowed up expansion in previous years. Development will also begin on Class A projects as capital is readily available to get them off of the ground. And Close-in urban development will thrive as it has; downtown Portland has more exciting things going on than ever before.

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLS®


The following are some of the highlights of openings and ground breaking in 2013: 1. Apple will be opening in the old Saks in 15,000 sf and is estimated to hit $100 million in sales. 2. Yard House will open in 12,000 square feet behind Apple with over 100 beer taps. 3. Target will open its Urban concept in downtown Portland. 4. The overhaul of Jantzen Beach Supercenter will be complete in 2013. 5. CenterCal has announced plans to start Nyberg 2, a redevelopment of the K-mart site in Tualatin at 340,000 sf. Cabela’s and a local grocery are rumored to be anchor tenants.

VII. Conclusion It’s a very exciting time to be working in the retail industry, and though we have obstacles to overcome nationally and globally, Oregon is attracting great retailers and restaurants, and real estate developers are excited about what we will see over the next coming years.

2013 Retail Forecast—J.J. Unger, CLS®


The 25th 速 Annual IREM Forecast Breakfast INDUSTRIAL


PAUL F. BREUER, SIOR® COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

Paul F. Breuer, SIOR SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT PORTLAND

paul.breuer@colliers.com

AREA OF EXPERTISE EDUCATION AND QUALIFICATIONS BS | Finance Degree University of Oregon’s School of Business Administration

AFFILIATIONS AND MEMBERSHIPS Society of Industrial and Office Realtors (SIOR) National Association of Realtors (NAR)

CONTACT DETAILS MOB DIR FAX

+1 503 957 6562 +1 503 499 0061 +1 503 227 2447

Colliers International 601 SW Second Avenue Suite 1950 Portland, Oregon 97204 www.colliers.com

Paul Breuer offers forty years of experience in the industrial and flex markets in the Portland metropolitan area. His areas of focus include site acquisition, leasing, building sales, marketing strategy and economic modeling. Paul’s commitment to Oregon and Southwest Washington and expertise in all facets of the commercial real estate industry achieves proven results with the successful completion of many complex acquisition, disposition and site selection projects. PROFESSIONAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS Paul specializes in innovative creative solutions meeting his clients’ commercial real estate needs. He is recognized for his thoroughness and for building strong relationships. In the last 10 years, Paul has delivered the following results: 145+ assignments concluded $545 million+ in transactional value Nearly 9 million square feet sold, leased or builtto-suit Nearly 800 acres land sold

REPRESENTATIVE CLIENTS SONY BOEING MACY’S AARON RENTS WEYERHAEUSER RITE AID CORPORATION NNR GLOBAL LOGISTICS INTERNATIONAL TRUCK BENJAMIN MOORE & CO COLUMBIA CORRUGATED BOX FEDERATED DEPARTMENT STORES TRUESERV CLEANPAK SYSTEMS KLC INTERNATIONAL SOLAICX NIKE ALLEGRO MORAN FOODS LOCKHEED MARTIN IRON MOUNTAIN OIA GLOBAL LOGISTICS


PAUL F. BREUER, SIOR® Continued... COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL AWARDS Earned the “Industrial Broker of the Year” twice and the “Bill Naito” award for Creative Transactions three times from the Commercial Association of Realtors (CAR). Earned the “Industrial Transaction of the Year” award four times from the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors (SIOR) Paul served two terms as the President of the SIOR Oregon Chapter and also served two terms as Director and Secretary of the Commercial Association of Realtors.

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS Sold a 254,094 SF plywood plant on 20 acres on behalf of Weyerhaeuser to a retail/office developer for $4,811,058 in Bend Oregon.

Represented Sony Electronics in their sale of a 327,000 SF CD manufacturing facility on 35 acres in Springfield, Oregon. The buyer, a hospital, purchased the site for $16,850,000 and converted it into a wet lab.

Represented Sumco Corporation in their disposition of a 598,464 SF silicon ingot growing facility in Salem, Oregon for $13,325,000. The developers who purchased it converted it into a potato chip cooking operation.

Collaborated with Colliers ATREG to complete sale of the high-tech, 500,000 SF, LSI Logic Manufacturing Facility for $105 million. Represented an international manufacturing firm in site selection, leasing and acquisition projects totaling to date 34 acres and 470,000 SF. Part of team to market the sale of a multi-building, mixed-use site in Wilsonville consisting of more than 715,000 SF of building area on 76 acres of land.

Represented the buyer in the acquisition of a 1 million SF warehouse that was redeveloped into a flex office park. Subsequently retained as the leasing agent for the project, completing over 600,000 SF of transactions.

Leased or sold more than 2.35 million SF of high-tech facilities and more than 408 acres of land in the Hillsboro and Gresham areas. Marketed and leased approximately 720,000 SF to 100% occupancy in 7 transactions by self procuring 476,000 SF of the tenants at Bybee Lake Logistics Center in North Portland.


2013 INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE FORECAST PAUL F. BREUER, SIOR® As a quick review, and for those of you who aren’t intimately familiar with the Portland Metro industrial real estate market, I thought I would start by providing a brief overview of activity and market direction over the past 12 to 18 months, describe how the industry has

held up throughout the economic changes and how we believe it will fare in the future. OVERVIEW Quarter by quarter, month by month, Portland has continued to see slow but steady indicators that the industrial market is regaining some of its health. Previous market volatility has given way to slow but predictable small incremental gains in key market indicators. Although the industrial market isn’t as robust as seen in 2007 and early 2008, critical statistics have shown that we are out of the dark. The Portland industrial market is proving to be “The Little Engine that Could.” The Portland market has sustained its ninth consecutive quarter of elevated positive absorption starting with the third quarter of 2010. Seen in the New

2013 Industrial Forecast—Paul Breuer


Supply and Absorption graph (Figure 2), our worst quarter of negative absorption occurred the second quarter of 2009. The Portland industrial market did not completely bottom out until sometime between the second and third quarters of 2010.

During the third quarter of 2008, the Portland market experienced its first quarter of negative absorption. Throughout the economic downturn, between new products being delivered and previously occupied space going vacant, the inventory of available space increased by 3.9 million-square feet. As of this year, we have recovered much of that. We are only about 190,000 square feet short of where we were when the recession began. As of the third quarter, we are looking at an industrial vacancy rate of 6.9 percent. Over the last decade, the lowest vacancy rate was third quarter of 2007 at 4.8%. This was the point where vacancy rates started to increase due to new deliveries and the recession. Vacancy peaked between the second and third quarter of 2010 at 8.7%. We have absorbed 1.8% of that vacancy to date, but we are still 2.1% away from our ten year low in 2007. We are seeing some very positive indicators, but the Portland industrial market still has some challenges ahead.

2013 Industrial Forecast—Paul Breuer


LARGE CLASS A INDUSTRIAL There is increasingly limited availability of large high quality industrial space. This has a positive impact on rent, but it could be detrimental if the area is to continue to attract new companies and jobs to the area. In 2007 we had an abundance of available new modern property. Over the last four years, the supply for this property type has been decreasing at a steady rate, putting considerable limitations on tenants seeking this property type (Figure 4). Large national and international corporations with industrial space demands are beginning to take notice. It is increasingly challenging to find large quality space for prospective tenants. There are specific reasons for this trend. We have seen no new speculative construction for large class A space and very little industrial construction of any kind since 2008. As most market indicators have remained positive but largely stagnant over the last few years, developers and lenders have had little reason to speculate on new projects. Although demand has gradually crept up for some product types, developers and lenders had not had enough positive reassurance regarding the economy to really begin taking on risks. In addition, we have a lack of good quality available land. Large developable land is expensive and in short supply, and almost all large sites that

2013 Industrial Forecast—Paul Breuer


could be purchased today will require a minimum of 12 to 18+ months for the entitlement process alone. There are potential users looking in the Portland market right now who are unable to find the properties they desire. When the space they are looking for isn’t available, they do one of the following: 1. The most obvious but least desirable option is that they choose to locate in a different market. 2. Another option is that they downsize their requirement and settle for inferior space that will likely require significant tenant improvements to suit their needs. Furthermore, desirability of the land that is available is significantly impacted by its location. Interstate-5 is the preferred location and distance from I-5 is negative. Distribution users and most regional or larger manufacturing companies do not want to be more than a few miles from the freeway. So the conundrum is, where are the suitable, available, and shovel-ready sites in Portland Metro? It is true that there are about 20 large industrial sites for sale or lease in the marketplace at this moment, but only a few of those are actually suitable for the sort of construction required by prospective large corporate tenants. According to a recent study conducted by Group Mackenzie in cooperation with partners such as the Port of Portland, NAIOP, The Portland Business Alliance, Business Oregon, and Metro, there are only five properties available between 25 and 49 acres that are available for construction within 180 days. According to the same study, there is only one property over 49 acres that is suitable and available for construction in the next 180 days. Having looked over these 6 properties, I can only identify 3 sites that I believe would be of interest to the clients that I have been working with. Additionally, we are not seeing a lot of new industrial product coming online due in part to the fact that the Portland market has some of the highest costs in the country for permits, fees, and other soft costs. What I take away from

2013 Industrial Forecast—Paul Breuer


conversations with industrial professionals from around the country is that in many cases, it is less time consuming and more cost effective to develop raw land in their market compared to Portland. The examples have centered on larger tenants, but the decreasing supply of industrial product is not limited to large spaces alone. The supply of small to mid -size spaces (5,000 to 30,000 square feet) is also very limited. This is signifying the return of local tenants to the market. Many of the companies that are in this size range were the hardest hit by the recession. It is a very encouraging sign to once again see activity from this sector. CONSTRUCTION Currently, we are not seeing much construction underway in the Portland market. The total construction volume for the last 4 quarters has been some of the lowest sustained since 2001. Until recently, vacancy and rental rates continued to prohibit development. There are currently only 2 multi-tenant industrial projects under construction and 1 build-to-suit project. The first is an 85,000 square foot multi-tenant facility located in Tualatin. The second project is a 34,625 square foot building in the Sherwood Industrial Park. Over the past several years there has been a reasonable amount of build-to-suit activity, yet currently the largest build-to-suit under construction is a 125,000 square foot cold storage facility in Clackamas, OR. As far as proposed construction goes, the trend I see is that there are a number of developers who have identified and studied potential sites and are ready to begin construction once they have identified potential tenants.

2013 Industrial Forecast—Paul Breuer


Most of these, however, are for projects under 90,000 square feet. I suspect in the coming quarters, as vacancy rates continue to fall, rental rates will continue to increase, the threat of a near-term localized recession will remain minimal and speculative development will begin again in the not too distant future. VACANCIES Figure 5 demonstrates that on a national level, it is safe to say Portland Figure 5 is far ahead of curve, based on vaPortland 7.29% cancy rate comparisons. The PortNational Average 9.23% land industrial market ranks 13 out of 80+ major markets tracked by ColliBoston 16.99% ers in the nation. Quarter 3 industrial vacancy rates in Portland are nearly 2% lower than the national average at 7.29%. The national average is 9.23%. Boston currently has the highest vacancy rate at 16.99%. Quarter 3 National Industrial Vacancy Honolulu, HI

4.27%

Los Angeles, CA

4.35%

Bakersfield, CA

Orange County, CA

Seattle/Puget Sound, WA

Los Angeles - Inland… Portland, OR

Denver, CO

Oakland, CA

4.45%

4.60%

6.44%

6.89%

7.29%

7.81%

8.46%

National U.S.

9.23%

San Francisco Peninsula, CA

9.26%

Columbia, SC

9.46%

Greenville/Spartanburg, SC

9.53%

Fresno, CA

9.70%

10.22%

San Diego, CA

10.69%

San Jose - Silicon Valley

10.92%

Boise, ID

11.13%

Reno, NV

11.29%

Little Rock, AR

12.42%

Fairfield, CA

12.53%

Stockton/San Joaquin…

12.99%

Pleasanton/Walnut Creek,… Sacramento, CA

13.24%

Phoenix, AZ

13.30%

16.05%

Las Vegas, NV

16.99%

Boston, MA

On the west coast, inland metro areas are often well above the national vacancy average and are currently more than 50% greater than Portland. These include metro areas like Sacramento, Stockton, Reno, and Fresno. Many west coast coastal metros are right at or below the national industrial vacancy average and often lower than Portland. These include market areas such as San Francisco, Oakland, and Seattle. Many parts of Southern California are far below the national average. Los Angeles’s vacancy rate is a mere 4.35%. RENTS After 14 consecutive quarters of negative or flat rent, at the end of the second quarter of 2012, the market finally experienced a turn around with modest

2013 Industrial Forecast—Paul Breuer


growth in industrial shell rents. This trend was sustained in the third quarter and is also likely to occur in the fourth quarter. Two years ago I participated in a lease transaction where the shell rate after 7 months of free rent started at $.32 per square foot per month. Since then, and in sequential order, I have participated in transactions with a per square footshell rate of $.34, $.345, $.35 and I am currently working on a lease with a shell rate of $.365 per square foot per month. This is a positive trend that holds true for most market sectors and I expect it will continue into 2013. While industrial shell rates have been slowly moving up, free rent and other landlord concessions have been decreasing. There are always exceptions, but it appears to me that current supply and the trend in rents and concessions will support new speculative construction in 2013. It is likely that the part of the market that will be first served are the users looking for larger space. It is easier to make a project successful with the economics of larger scale construction. There is also movement in rent at the other end of the size spectrum. Over the past few years, rent for smaller space has improved by $.03 to $.05 per square foot per month. We’d like to see these rents several cents per square foot higher which would get them back to their historic highs, but the market is not there yet. Since the start of the recession tenants have been able to move from less functional buildings into new product at the same or lesser rent. I project that the gap in rent between the higher quality products and the older buildings will once again begin to widen. CAP RATES Third quarter cap rates for large class A investment quality industrial product in the Portland metro market were in the range of about 6.7 to 7.4, depending on their locale. A year ago, the range for cap rates was closer to 6.3 to 6.8. As demand for class A industrial product continues to increase, asking prices for

2013 Industrial Forecast—Paul Breuer


existing industrial buildings for sale will also rise. As investors begin to pay a premium for large class A industrial properties, cap rates will begin to compress. This may be especially true if the rate for which investors pay a premium for the most desirable properties exceeds the rate at which rents are expected to rise. Therefore, we expect to see cap rates begin to decline over the next 6 to 18 months. SALES ACTIVITY In regards to recent sales in the Portland industrial marketplace, over the last 12 months, 63 industrial properties over 25,000 square feet have transacted. This corresponds to 61 properties in the same period prior. The average age of these buildings was 1983, and the vast majority of them were class B and C. Price per square foot averages based on various building size ranges are outlined below: Buildings Size

Average Price Per Square Foot

10,000 to 40,000 square feet

$74.53

40,001 to 90,000 square feet

$54.88

90,001 square feet and larger

$46.49

FORECAST Portland’s position as a leader in high-tech manufacturing, and its continually strong activity in industries requiring warehouse and distribution space, such as third party logistics providers and distribution companies, suggest that the growth in the local industrial marketplace will continue to slowly march forward over the coming 4 to 6 quarters.

2013 Industrial Forecast—Paul Breuer


To summarize, here is what we have seen: Positive movement in economic indicators 9 consecutive quarters with positive leasing activity 2+ consecutive quarters with improving rent Low vacancy in many market segments (large spaces and good quality product)

In summary, here is what we should expect in the coming year: Demand will increase New speculative product will begin construction in 2013 Rent will continue to improve Landlord concessions will be reduced Industrial sites for development will remain in very short supply

2013 Industrial Forecast—Paul Breuer


The 25th 速 Annual IREM Forecast Breakfast MULTI-FAMILY


GREGORY FRICK HFO INVESTMENTS

Greg Frick has spent 20 years in the Portland metro commercial real estate industry; for the last 18 he has focused exclusively in apartments. Mr. Frick is a founding partner of HFO Investment Real Estate which opened its doors in 1999. Greg works with both private market and institutional clients. His level of repeat business is a testament to the value he brings to each transaction. In the past 12 months he has been involved in transactions ranging from the sale of downtown Portland’s Museum Place ($55 million) to the Pearl District’s Crane Building ($15 million) and the Oak Place Apartments in Hillsboro ($1.7 million). Professional Involvement Greg serves on the Metro Multifamily Housing Assn. (MMHA) newsletter committee, where he is a regular contributor to the bi-annual MMHA Apartment Report. He is also frequently sought out by members of the news media for his breadth of industry knowledge. Previous Employment & Background Prior to forming HFO Investment Real Estate with his partners Cody Hagerman and Tim O’Brien, Mr. Frick worked as a senior associate at C&R Real Estate Services and at CB Commercial. Born in the South, Greg moved out west to Oregon where he grew up in NE Portland. He graduated with a BS in Finance from Portland State University. These days he lives in SE Portland with his wife of 15 years and his two sons, ages 8 and 13.


GREGORY FRICK HFO INVESTMENTS Continued...

About HFO The Multi-Housing Broker Team at HFO has more than 70 years of combined apartment experience in the Pacific Northwest. HFO serves the needs of individual and institutional multifamily property owners with a reputation for expertise, personal service, community philanthropy, and integrity. HFO has brokered some of the area’s largest and most complex transactions and is consistently recognized by CoStar as top performers in the Portland Commercial Real Estate industry. HFO partners have brokered more than 13,000 units valued at over $875 million. HFO is the only apartment-only brokerage consistently ranked by CoStar as a top 10 sales firm. All four HFO partners were named top sales brokers by CoStar for 2011. HFO holds an ongoing “Investor Roundtable” series attended regularly by hundreds of area apartment investors, and it reaches audiences in print through The Northwest Apartment Investor newsletter. You can find the latest trends, news and research of interest to multifamily investors posted several times each week on the Northwest Apartment Investor blog (http:// northwestapartmentinvestor.blogspot.com). Committed to giving back to the communities we serve, HFO is consistently ranked by the Portland Business Journal as one of the area’s top corporate philanthropists. The company website, hfore.com received two first place awards in the 2012 Web Marketing Association competition for “Best Mobile Website” in the real estate and professional services categories.


2013 MULTI-FAMILY REAL ESTATE FORECAST GREGORY FRICK

In the United States professional soccer has always taken a back seat to the other professional sports. In Portland’s sports scene the Timbers and the Timbers Army have become the shining star in terms of fan support and enthusiasm. In the commercial real estate industry, multi-family has always taken a back seat to the other types of commercial real estate. But just like the Timbers here in Portland, the shining star for the last 2 years, both nationally and locally has been the apartment sector. Apartments are leading the commercial real estate industry out of the tough economic times of the late-2000s recession. Apartments are not the most glamorous or grandiose of real estate investments, but they do offer the most certainty, freedom, stability and security for your real estate investment dollar. All indicators are still positive for the Portland apartment market. However, economic/job growth with increasing wages are the key to keeping the news positive for the apartment market. It is going to take Portland’s community of business leaders, many of whom are in this room, to continue their focus on improving our economy if the apartment market’s stellar performance is to keep moving in a positive direction. A strong economy will allow Portland to keep and enhance its high livability factor. In doing so rents and income will keep moving up across all segments of commercial real estate. Apartment Vacancy & Rents So where are we today, as we come to the end of 2012?


There have been multiple reports over the last 2 years talking about the Portland metro area’s historically low apartment vacancy rates and increasing rents. Depending on which national reports are cited, Portland’s apartment vacancy rates rank between the 2nd to the 4th lowest of the major metropolitan markets in United States. In its local survey of over 56,000 apartment units, The Metro Multifamily Housing Association fall 2012 report shows the Portland Apartment vacancy rate has fallen from a high of 7.7 percent in 2004 to a low of 3.6 percent in 2012. The inner eastside submarket showed lowest vacancy rates at below 2.5 percent. On the high end are Hillsboro and outer SE Portland submarkets, at 5.4 percent and 5.2 percent respectively in the 2012 report. The fall 2012 Metro Multifamily Housing Association Apartment Report also shows that Portland apartment rents have increased from an average rent per square foot of $.79 in 2004 to $1.03 in 2012. This equates to a 3 percent year over year annual increase. The chart below shows rent rates since 2008.

Most of the gains in rents since 2004 have occurred since 2010, when market rents increased from an average of $.90 square foot to $1.03 today, an annual increase of over 5.5 percent.

2013 Multi-Family Forecast—Gregory Frick


What are the factors driving the low vacancy rates and raising rental rates? 1.

The rate of home ownership. Home ownership was at a high of 69 percent in 2006 but has dropped to just over 65 percent in 2012. This is the lowest rate we've seen in over a decade. In addition according to the U.S. Census the number of home owners in the western part of United States has dropped from a high 65 percent 2006 to just over 60 percent in 2012. That represents a larger percentage change in the rate of ownership in the West versus the national average. People living in the Western region the United States are more apt to be renters as compared to other regions of the country. 2. The continued in-migration to the Portland area and in particular the in-migration of the Gen Y population. Gen Y represents people born between 1981 and 1999 currently between the ages of 13 and 31. This is the prime apartment renter demographic. Gen Y is now the largest segment of the U.S. population. That’s more good news both nationally and locally in terms of continued demand for apartments. As we have all heard, Portland is one of the “It” places to be for this demographic. Portland offers the culture and livability the Gen Y population is looking for.

But it is not just a numbers game with this group which make them so appealing to apartment owners, it is also their habits.

2013 Multi-Family Forecast—Gregory Frick


The Great Depression shaped the attitudes of a generation from the 1930s until World War II; the Great Recession has and will continue to affect the Y Generation. As a professor on public policy from Rutgers stated, “This is a generation that is scared of commitment, wants to be light on their feet. What was once seen as a solid investment choice, like a house or a car, is now seen as a ball and chain with a lot of risk to it.” 3. Lack of new construction for the past 4 years. This trend is changing with a huge increase in construction permits. Yet the total numbers are still below our market’s historical averages. Close in areas have the largest amount of new projects and the outer westside has the largest number of total units planned. Intel's expansion will certainly help on the absorption of these westside units. HFO Apartment Construction ReportTM HFO Research staff is tracking the total number of all known units currently under construction, planned, announced or proposed. If all of these units were built, here is where they would be located: Source: U.S. Census

It will be interesting to watch the level of the absorption of the new close-in, core located projects. This new supply is targeting a very similar market with small units with minimal or no parking. Asking rents are from $1.80 to $2.50/ square foot. For a 500 square foot unit, this means somewhere between $900 and $1,250 a month for rent. This monthly rent does not include the cost of utilities paid by, or charged to the tenant. Source: Newspaper reports, city permit offices, HFO research. © 2012 HFO Investment Real Estate. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction without permission strictly prohibited.

2013 Multi-Family Forecast—Gregory Frick


We have seen the lack of parking with new apartments becoming a major contributing factor to an increase in neighborhood opposition to new development. This opposition will add to the already increasing difficulty and cost to obtain entitlements for projects. In addition, debt and equity is still cautious, construction and land costs are increasing – not to mention the Urban Growth Boundary and the lack of land sites available for development. Construction has picked up, but there are still significant supply constraints in this market. This will delay our apartment market as a whole from entering an oversupply cycle. All of these factors are helping to keep our vacancy rates low and rents climbing. 2012 Transactions In Review 2012 has been a good year to be involved in apartment sales: low vacancy rates low interest rates plenty of money managers, banks and owners with capital looking for a good place to invest The Portland apartment market is viewed both regionally and nationally as a favorable market to place investment capital. Our apartment transaction market is bifurcated between institutional transactions -- those over $10,000,000 -- and those below that threshold. As of the first 11 months of 2012 there have been 13 transactions over $10 million: 

Center Pointe: 264 units in Beaverton, $34.32 million

LaSalle: 554 units in Beaverton, $77.2 million

2013 Multi-Family Forecast—Gregory Frick


Parkside: 225 units in Gresham, $16.45 million

Arbor Creek: 440 units in Beaverton, $35.5 million

Alexan Villebois: 274 units in Wilsonville, $30.40 million

Forest Rim: 300 units in Tualatin, $42.15 million

Axcess 15: 202 units in NE Portland, $48.625 million

Autumn Chase: 400 units in Vancouver, $39.043 million

The Crane Building: 30 units with office and retail in the Pearl, $13.03 million;

Forest Creek: 160 units in NW Portland, $25.7 million

Lynnmarie Manor: 170 units in Beaverton, $11 million

Riverplace Square: 290 units in SW Portland, $77.5 million

The Park at Tualatin: 210 units in Tualatin, $19.35 million

This equates to approximately 14 percent of all multi-family transactions 10 units and greater in the Portland market and also 73 percent of the total dollar volume. In 2011, there were 27 institutional transactions accounting for roughly 24 percent of all transactions and nearly 80 percent of the total dollar volume. The Portland Apartment market has a relatively small number of these larger properties and the sheer volume of those sold in the last 36 months is not sustainable. Nevertheless, there is an important indicator of the market worth noting. While the number of institutional transactions has fallen, values have continued to hold firm. There continues to be strong interest in institutional properties. Buyers of these properties want to be in Portland and are fighting over an ever smaller pool of opportunities. CAP rates for institutional properties are as low as I have ever seen. Institutional apartment transactions are trading in the 5.25 percent-6.00 percent CAP rate range, and 50 to 100 basis points lower for projects located in the core. 2013 Multi-Family Forecast—Gregory Frick


In the non-institutional segment of the market, 2012 saw buyers continue to look to re-enter, realizing the strength and value in the Portland apartment market. Historically low interest rates were and still are a significant factor in the increase in transactions of less than $10 million in 2012. In 2011 there were 86 such transactions; through November of 2012 there have been 82 transactions under $10,000,000. This rise in demand has caused values to increase to near or slightly above the values seen in 2008, depending on location and quality. These non-institutional apartments are trading with CAP rates in the 6.25 percent to 7.25 percent range, and even lower for core located properties. One area where we are not seeing an increase in pricing and lowering of CAP rates is in the C and lower properties. There is weak buyer demand for such properties. Buyers are looking for quality and the lower end properties need a compelling story to attract potential buyers. We expect both trends to continue into 2013: (1) The number of institutional transactions will slow down, yet demand will continue to stay strong, and (2) the number of non-institutional transactions will increase. 

CAP rates are as low as we have seen in years

Attractive financing is available at sub-4 percent/fixed interest rates for seven years or longer

A large amount of capital looking for suitable places to invest

These factors lead apartment investors to feel that this is a great time to capitalize on apartments being the ‘it’ investment. Some Factors which could negatively impact the apartment market 1. A rise in interest rates and a corresponding rise in CAP rates. With a rise in CAP rates from 6 percent to 7 percent: a property’s Net Operating Income will have to increase by 16 percent to maintain its value. This is not gross rents but Net Operating Income. 2. Lack of wage inflation. With little or no wage inflation, when do we reach a breaking point as to how much tenants can or will be able to pay for rent. 2013 Multi-Family Forecast—Gregory Frick


Summary and Forecast for 2013 With the continued shift of the American dream away from home ownership, the flexibility Gen Y is seeking, and the relative high barriers of entry for new product in this market, apartments will continue to offer secure returns for investors. In 2013 I expect Portland area vacancy rates to increase slightly due to the absorption of new units but we will continue to be among the lowest in the nation. Rents will continue to increase between 3 percent and 6 percent. With continued economic growth, the Portland apartment market will be the commercial real estate sector to continue leading the way in 2013 and beyond. I would like to thank the Timbers for not raising ticket prices for this season. It will help fans pay for increasing rents.

2013 Multi-Family Forecast—Gregory Frick


The 25th 速 Annual IREM Forecast Breakfast OFFICE


MARK C. FRIEL JONES LANG LASALLE


2013 OFFICE REAL ESTATE FORECAST MARK C. FRIEL

Office forecast 2013

Presented to IREM

Portland office market forecast Critical market drivers for 2013

Presented to IREM Mark Friel Senior Vice President 12/06/2012

Portland economy

Economic drivers/High-tech impact

Creative space demand

CBD overview

Suburbs

Kruse Way

Sunset Corridor

Forecast 2013

Presented to IREM

Office forecast 2013

Agenda Portland economy Economic drivers/High-tech impact Creative space demand

Click to edit Master title style CBD overview Suburbs Kruse Way Sunset Corridor

Forecast 2013 Click to edit Master subtitle style


Portland job growth positive for two years, but pace uneven - unemployment down to 7.2% Hundreds

10%

12% 10%

6% 4%

8%

2%

Click to edit Master title style 0%

6%

-2% -4%

4%

-6% -8%

2%

-10% -12%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0%

2012

• Portland’s recovery has been mediocre – landing 14th of 26 cities with workforce over 1M

Click to edit Master subtitle style

• Metro area has lost 82,700 jobs since the recession started – April 2008 • Metro area has regained 46,200 jobs – 56% of jobs lost…while US has only regained 48% of jobs lost

Red Bubble - Size of peak to trough job loss

Grey Bubble - Size of trough to current job recovery - If red bubble invisible, job recovery is greater than job loss.

Portland’s recovery has been mediocre – landing 14th of 26 cities with workforce over 1M 

Metro area has lost 82,700 jobs since the recession started – April 2008 

Metro area has regained 46,200 jobs – 56% of jobs lost…while US has only regained 48% of jobs los (US lost 8.7 M, regained 4.2M) Presented to IREM

Portland job sector winners – education, health care, prof svcs, construction outperforming national pace -2%

0%

Recovery: Trough to Current Job Recovery 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

12%

14%

10%

Recession: Peak to Trough Job Decline

Portland job sector winners – Education, health care, professional services, construction outperforming national pace

Portland Job Picture past 4 years 

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate

8%

Office forecast 2013

Office forecast 2013

Presented to IREM

Health Care & Education

5% 0%

Hospitality & Leisure

Professional Services

Click to edit Master title style -5%

Government

-10% Transportation -15% -20%

Retail Trade

Absolute Loss/Recovery

Information

& Utilities

Manufacturing Finance

Wholesale Trade

-25%

Construction

Red Bubble Size of peak to trough job loss Grey Bubble Size of trough to current job recovery. If red bubble invisible, job recovery is greater than job loss.

-30% -35% -40%

Click to edit Master subtitle style

• Job growth projections for 2013 expected to strong in information, prof and bus services, MFG • 2013 job growth expected to be slower in government and finance • Wholesale, retail and transportation will lag

66

Job growth projections for 2013 expected to strong in information, manufacturing, prof and bus services

2013 job growth expected to be slower in government and finance

Wholesale, retail and transportation will lag

2013 Office Forecast—Mark C. Friel


Office forecast 2013

Presented to IREM

Of 100 largest metro areas, Portland ranks as the 22nd most educated with 33% having college degree Share with College Degree

Portland’s Workforce 

Recent analysis by Brookings Institution reveals college graduates are critical to a city’s economic viability

Young and Educated

2010 – 33.0%

Click to edit Master title style

1970 – 12.5%

2010 – 24.7%

• Share of Portland residents with college degree is up 20.4% since 1970 – to 33%, higher than the US

Click to edit Master subtitle style

• Recent analysis by Brookings Institution-college graduates are critical to a city’s economic viability • Of the most coveted demographic – college educated young adults (18-34) – Portland ranks 31st with 24.7% with Bachelor’s 67

Share of Portland residents with a college degree is up 20.4% since 1970 – to 33%, (ranking 22nd out of 100 major metro areas) which is higher than the US average (Now 32%)

Young and Educated - (18-34) – Portland ranks 31st with 24.7% with Bachelor’s

These qualities are highly sought-after by high tech firms

Portland Quality of Life

Driven by Portland’s high quality of life – Downtown has maintained a very low vacancy rate throughout this recession. Brew pubs, food carts, retail and transportation infrastructure Short commute and year round recreation

Presented to IREM

Office forecast 2013

Portland’s quality of life has kept downtown vacancy low throughout the recession

153

Portland’s quality of life score

Click to edit Master title style Portland’s Class A vacancy Philadelphia: 120 | 10.8%

Boston: 127 | 19.5%

8.3%

Washington, DC: 127 | 15.4%

Denver: 131 | 14.6%

• Portland’s class A vacancy rate remains one of the lowest in the country

Click to edit styleCLRsearch.com based on variables such as: education, culture, • Quality of lifeMaster score issubtitle taken from

medical, restaurant, weather, amusement, etc. Index score: (100 = National • Index score: (100 = National Average) for an area is compared to the national average of 100. A score of 200 indicates twice the national average, while 50 indicates half the national average. Average) for an area is compared to the national average of 100. A score of 200 indicates twice the national average, while 50 indicates half the national average. 68

2013 Office Forecast—Mark C. Friel


Office forecast 2013

Presented to IREM

Portland’s has seen a migration of firms from California and expansion of CA-based firms in Portland

Last 10 years, steady migration of CA firms

Click to edit Master title style

From 2007-2013, trend has added over 4,000 office jobs (+/- 1,000,000 s.f.) in the Portland Metropolitan Area 

Click to edit Master subtitle style

• High-profile headquarters relocations and expanded footprints of companies from California • During the period of 2007-2013, this trend will have led to the addition of over 4,000 office jobs • Trend continues to gain momentum as companies look to expand and/or invest in Portland

Creative office buildings are comprised of buildings that generally have open floorplans, high ceilings, exposed brick, operable windows, natural light and reside in older buildings.

Presented to IREM

Office forecast 2013

69

This trend continues to gain momentum and being a significant impact on the local office markets.

The latest is salesforce.com looking for 100K SF

Demand for Creative Space is also fueling office market in CBD: 

This demographic shift is fueling a migration of firms from California:

Demand for creative office space is growing – shifting vacancy for that space lower and rents higher

Vacancy: 9.0%

Vacancy: 11.5%

Click to edit Master title style

Asking rate: $22.52

Asking rate: $20.66

Creative office space compris• Creative office space comprises 30.0 percent of Portland’s CBD Class B and C inventory •Click Rentstoare percent premium to the overall market es 30.0 percent of Portland’s edita 11 Master subtitle style • The high-tech sector will likely continue to create demand for this product type CBD Class B and C inventory • Portland’s high-tech industry ranked 4 in leading high-tech metro areas based on patents per capita and average annual patent growth by The Atlantic. asking rents that are a 11 percent premium to the overall market. th

70

Vacancy is 2.5% lower than traditional Class B and C

Unico is first institutional owner to convert Class A to creative

2013 Office Forecast—Mark C. Friel


Presented to IREM

Office forecast 2013

CBD Class A will see more vacancy – but rents remain firm 14%

1. Class A buildings now competing to capture creative sector

$35

Class A average rent (direct) Class A vacancy

12%

$30

10%

$25

Click to edit Master title style 8%

$20

6%

$15

4%

$10

2%

$5

0%

$0

CBD will change in 2013 –Trends

2. Large scheduled vacancies will push up vacancy for a short period of time

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Robert Duncan Plaza 175,000 SF

Regence – 120,000 SF

First & Main – 80-90,000 SF

• Class A buildings now competing to capture creative sector

Click to edit Master subtitle style

• Large scheduled vacancies will push up vacancy for a short period of time • More full floor availabilities will come to market in 2013 • Creative space demand is pushing B rents to $23-24/SF

71

3. More full-floor availabilities will come to market in 2013

4. Institutional owners will continue to push rates 5. Creative space demand is pushing B rents to $23-24/SF 6. Limited window for tenants to secure A- space on more favorable terms

After sitting on the side-lines for most of this recovery, businesses in Portland’s Westside suburbs have begun to show signs of improvement. With five consecutive quarters of positive demand and a strong showing this quarter, the suburbs account for over 900,000 square feet of net absorption so far in 2012

Presented to IREM

Portland suburbs finally join market recovery

Office forecast 2013

Suburban markets have finally joined the recovery –

CBD Net Absorption 300,000

Westside Net Absorption Vacancy

16%

200,000

14%

100,000

Click to edit Master title style 0

(100,000)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12

(200,000)

(300,000)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

0%

• After sitting on the side-lines for most of this recovery, businesses in Portland’s Westside suburbs are showing signs of subtitle improvement. Click to edit Master style

• With five consecutive quarters of positive demand and a strong showing this quarter, the suburbs account for over 900,000 square feet of net absorption so far in 2012 72

Net Absorption YTD – through 3Q12: Westside – 450,000K

Eastside – 270,000K

Vancouver – 250,000

CBD – Under 75K

2013 Office Forecast—Mark C. Friel

18%


Presented to IREM

Office forecast 2013

Kruse Way office market on the road to recovery 150,000

30%

100,000

25%

50,000

20%

Click to edit Master title style 0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

(100,000)

5%

Total Net Absorption

Total Vacant %

After 5 years of rising vacancy rates, the Kruse Way office market has seen vacancy drop from 26% to 21% in the last 4 quarters

15%

10%

(150,000)

2012

(50,000)

Kruse Way office market on the road to recovery

0%

•Click Afterto5 years of risingsubtitle vacancystyle rates, the Kruse Way office market has seen vacancy drop from 26% edit Master to 21%

Net absorption will total 150,000± square feet by year end, representing solid organic growth by tenants 

Rental rates have stabilized and should start to see some modest improvement as vacancy drops below 15% • Net absorption will total 150,000 square feet by year end

• Rental rates have stabilized and should start to see some modest improvement as vacancy declines73

Sunset Corridor office market on the road to recovery

After peaking at 27% in 2010, market vacancy is recovering thanks to demand from Nike and high-tech firms. Current vacancy is 17.7%.

Sunset Corridor office market movers hasten recovery

Office forecast 2013

Presented to IREM 200,000

30%

150,000

25%

100,000 20%

Click to edit Master title style 50,000

15%

0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 10%

(50,000)

The Sunset Corridor leads the westside suburbs in absorption with 268,000 SF and has seen • After peaking at 27% in 2010, market vacancy recovering due to Nike and Intel-related firms Click to edit Master subtitle style • The SSC leads westside suburbs in absorption with 268,000 SF - most activity from companies like the most activity where compaGrass Valley and GE Healthcare who improved their lease economics in large blocks of space • Rents remain compressed and concessions are significant but rents should firm in 2013 nies like Grass Valley, Comcast, and GE Healthcare are able to improve their lease economics in large blocks of space 5%

(100,000)

(150,000)

Total Net Absorption

Total Vacant %

0%

74

Rents remain compressed and concessions are significant.

2013 Office Forecast—Mark C. Friel


Presented to IREM

Office forecast 2013

Portland office market investment sales

Portland office market investment sales 

$380

$342

Portland core assets are preferred by institutional investors 

ODS Tower expected to close soon

Click to edit Master title style

$191

However activity is picking up in secondary markets – Class B and Suburban assets • Portland core assets are preferred by institutional investors

Click to edit Master subtitle style

• However activity is picking up in secondary markets – Class B and Suburban assets • Pre-recession price peak close at hand .

75

Pre-recession price peak close at hand

Forecast 2013

Economy will grow at a modest pace of 1.5% 

Job growth in information and professional and business services sectors

Slower growth in finance and government jobs.

CBD will stay tight but more (full floor) options will be available for large tenants 

 

Big blocks only affect big tenants

Suburbs will catch up 

Kruse rents up

SSC rents will level

Upgrade your space now if you are a tenant Creative space is here to stay – space remains at a premium

2013 Office Forecast—Mark C. Friel

Presented to IREM

Forecast 2013

Office forecast 2013

• Economy will grow at a modest pace of 1.5%

• CBD will stay tight but more (full floor) options will be available  Big blocks only affect big tenants

Click to edit style • Suburbs will Master continue totitle improve  Kruse rents up  Sunset Corridor rents will firm

• Upgrade your space now if you are a tenant • Creative space is here to stay – space remains at a premium Click to edit Master subtitle style

• More Class A conversions to creative space • Near term risk…fiscal cliff????

76


More Class A conversions to creative space

Near term risk…fiscal cliff????

Thursday Schedule in Portland 

Business Journal Lunch

Schwabe Holiday party

KOIN Center

PDC having an apparel industry event

CRESA partners open house

Office forecast 2013

Presented to IREM

Thank you

Copyright © Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. 2012

2013 Office Forecast—Mark C. Friel


The 25th 速 Annual IREM Forecast Breakfast Merritt Paulson


MERRITT PAULSON PORTLAND TIMBERS

Merritt Paulson is the Owner and President of the Portland Timbers. On March 20, 2009, Major League Soccer (MLS) announced that the Timbers would become the league’s 18th franchise, starting play in 2011. Named to Sports Business Journal’s exclusive “Forty Under 40” class of 2011, Paulson’s vision to bring a second major league sports franchise to Portland came to life during the Timbers’ inaugural MLS season. Under Paulson’s leadership, the Timbers have sold out all of their regular-season games and created one of the most authentic and exciting in-game sports experiences at JELD-WEN Field. The new MLS team quickly changed the landscape of sports in Portland, with the Timbers becoming a national success story and a model major league sports organization in the process. Before assuming ownership of the team in 2007, he was the Senior Director of Marketing and Business Development at NBA Entertainment in New York. After completing his MBA at Harvard, Paulson was part of a joint venture in Palo Alto, Calif., that focused on building high-speed wireless networks. He then moved to New York to become the manager of HBO on Demand and was part of the team that launched the first premium subscription video on-demand service. After HBO, Paulson moved to NBA Entertainment and served as the Senior Director of Marketing and Business Development at NBA Entertainment for five years. In that role, he helped launch and develop NBA-TV and had responsibility for both marketing and business development efforts of NBA-TV and NBA LEAGUE PASS. From a personal standpoint, Paulson, his wife and two daughters are thrilled to live in the Portland area and are passionate outdoor enthusiasts. Paulson is on the boards of the Oregon Chapter of The Nature Conservancy, the Oregon Sports Authority and Panthera.


The 25th 速 Annual IREM Forecast Breakfast

Visit www.iremoregon.org for 2013 Program information. THANK YOU for joining us and best wishes for a prosperous 2013!


2012 IREM Forecast Transcript  

2012 IREM Forecast Breakfast Transcript.

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