ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﻥ ﻃﻲ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ 1363-85
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ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎﻱ ﺍﻣــﺮﻭﺯ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺳــﻮﺩﺩﻫﻲ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻔﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺳــﻠﺤﻪ ،ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻪ ﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ .ﺑــﻪ ﻃــﻮﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺑﺎ ﮔــﺮﺩﺵ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ 330 ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺩﻻﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ 1000ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺷﺎﻏﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺭﺳﻤﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ [1] .ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ. ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻱ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺁﺳﺎﻥ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳــﻨﺠﺶ ﻣﻴﻞ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨــﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻲﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻤﺮﻛﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﺸــﺘﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻲﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﺍﻧﺪ .ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ،ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﺳﺖ[2] . ﻣﺼــﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺭﻏﻢ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺕ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮﺩﻩ ﻧﺎﺑﻬﻨﺠــﺎﺭ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﺟﺒﺎﺭﻱ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺳــﻮﺩ ﺳﺮﺷــﺎﺭ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺤﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳــﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ [1] .ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺁﻧﺴــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻋﻴﻦ ﺣﺎﻝ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﻧﺴــﺒﻲ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺳــﺖ )ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩ ﺭﻭﺍﻧﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻴﻜﻮﺗﻴﻦ( ﻗﻄﻌ ًﺎ ﻣﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ.ﮔﻤﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳﺮﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻓﺮﻕ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺷــﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻧﺸــﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻳﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳــﻂ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﺮﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ[3] . ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﻱ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻧﻮﺳــﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑ ﻭ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ .ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ،ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ [4-10] .ﻣﺠﺎﻣﻊ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﻋﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺆﺛــﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻛﻢ ﺳــﺎﻻﻥ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤــﺖ ،ﻋﻤﻮﻣــ ًﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑــﺎﻻ ﺑﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﻴــﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﻲﮔﻴــﺮﺩ .ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺑــﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ WHOﻣﺒﻨﻲ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺷــﻴﻮﻉ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﺸــﻴﺪﻥ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘ ًﺎ ﺷﻴﻮﻉ ﺍﻣﺮﺍﺽ
ﻭ ﻣﺮگ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻛﻢ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ[11] . ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺩﺭﺻﺪﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺭﻭﻱ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ، ﺭﺍﻫﻜﺎﺭﻫﺎﻳــﻲ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺧﺼﻮﺻ ًﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﺪ.
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ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ1388؛(38) 12
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ﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﭘﮋﻭﻫــﺶ ﺣﺎﺿــﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻔﻲ -ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳﺮﻱ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻃﻲ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ 63-85ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ .ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﭼﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﻱ ،ﻧﺮﺥ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺷﻬﺮﻱ، ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ،ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻱ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﺍﺳﺮ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ ،ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺳــﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳــﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺗﻬﻴﻪ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ،ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ .ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻤــﺎﻡ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﻴﺎﻣــﺪﻩ ،ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﻋــﺪﻡ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻓﺎﻗﺪ ﺧﻄﺎﻱ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ )ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺷــﻬﺮﻱ( ،ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ،ﺷــﺮﻛﺖ ﺩﺧﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ )ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ( ﻭ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳــﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﺳــﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﺍﻧﺴــﺎﻧﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ .ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ Excelﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻫﺎ ،ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﺍﻱ ﺩﺧﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺧﻮﺭﺍﻛﻲ ﺭﺳﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫــﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻧﺮﻡﺍﻓﺰﺍﺭ Eviewsﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺳــﭙﺲ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﺪ. ﺩﺭﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲﻓﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪﺗﺠﺮﺑﻲﻣﻴﺎﻥﻗﻴﻤﺖﺗﻨﺒﺎﻛﻮﺑﺎﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺁﻥ ،ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻳﻚ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﻨﺎﺳــﻲ ﻃﺮﺍﺣﻲ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺪﺗﺎ ﻋﻮﺍﺭﺽ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﺴﻨﺠﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﺟﻪﺑﻪﻓﺎﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻣﺸﻜﻞﺍﺻﻠﻲﺩﺭﻣﺪﻝﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺳﻨﺠﻲﻗﺪﻳﻢ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ.