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‫ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﻥ‬ ‫ﻃﻲ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪1363-1385‬‬

‫‪D‬‬

‫ﭼﻜﻴﺪﻩ‬

‫ﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﺑﻮﺍﻟﻘﺎﺳﻢ ﮔﺮﺟﻲ‪ / 1‬ﺗﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﻣﺤﻤﺪﻱ‪ / 2‬ﻟﻴﻼ ﺣﺴﻴﻨﻲ‪ / 3‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺯ ﻗﻨﺎﺗﻲ‪ / 4‬ﻣﻬﺪﻯ ﺁﺯﺍﺩﺑﺨﺖ‬

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‫‪SI‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‪ :‬ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺭﻏﻢ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺕ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻧﺎﺑﻬﻨﺠﺎﺭ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﺟﺒﺎﺭﻱ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺳــﻮﺩ ﺳﺮﺷــﺎﺭ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳــﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻋﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻱ ﻋﻜﺲ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑ ﻭ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺳﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺭﻭﻱ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﺮﺭﺳـﻲ‪ :‬ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻔﻲ – ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﺳــﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳــﺮﻱ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺁﻥ ﻃﻲ ﺳــﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪ 63-85‬ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﭼﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺷــﻬﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺷــﻬﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﻱ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻱ ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﺍﺳﺮ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﮔﻴﺮﻱﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﺗﻬﻴﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻫﻤﺒﺴــﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺸــﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺗﺼﺎﺩﻓﻲ ﻃﻲ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﻔﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﻢ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﮕﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻧﺎﻳﻲ )ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ‪ DF‬ﻳﺎ ‪ (ADF‬ﻭ ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ﻫﻢ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﮕﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﺑﻴﻦ‪-‬ﻭﺍﺗﺴﻮﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ‪ OLS‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ‪ :‬ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ‪ ADF‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻌﻨﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﻱ ‪ 5‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻭ ‪ 10‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻧﺦ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻣﺎﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ‪ :‬ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﻛﺸﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻳﻲ ﻛﻢ ﻛﺸﺶ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺑﺮ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﺳــﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻱ ﺑﻴﺸــﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺧﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﻧﻤﻲ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪Ar‬‬

‫ﻛﻠﻴﺪ ﻭﺍژﻩﻫﺎ‪ :‬ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ‬

‫• ﻭﺻﻮﻝ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ‪ • 87/10/8 :‬ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ‪ • 88/7/15 :‬ﭘﺬﻳﺮﺵ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻲ‪88/10/2 :‬‬

‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ‪1388‬؛‪(38) 12‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻋﻀﻮ ﻫﻴﺌﺖ ﻋﻠﻤﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻜﺪﻩ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻃﻼﻉﺭﺳﺎﻧﻲ ﭘﺰﺷﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﭘﺰﺷﻜﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ؛ ﻧﻮﻳﺴﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻝ )‪(dr_hasan.gorji@yahoo.com‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﻋﻀﻮ ﻫﻴﺌﺖ ﻋﻠﻤﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻜﺪﻩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﻋﻼﻣﻪ ﻃﺒﺎﻃﺒﺎﻳﻲ)ﺭﻩ(‬ ‫‪ .3‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻱ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﺍﺭﺷﺪﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻬﺪﺍﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻜﺪﻩ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻃﻼﻉﺭﺳﺎﻧﻲ ﭘﺰﺷﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﭘﺰﺷﻜﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫‪ .4‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻱ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﺍﺭﺷﺪﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻬﺪﺍﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻜﺪﻩ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻃﻼﻉﺭﺳﺎﻧﻲ ﭘﺰﺷﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﭘﺰﺷﻜﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫‪ .5‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻱ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﺍﺭﺷﺪﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻬﺪﺍﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻜﺪﻩ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻃﻼﻉﺭﺳﺎﻧﻲ ﭘﺰﺷﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﭘﺰﺷﻜﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬

‫‪www.SID.ir‬‬

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‫ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﻥ ﻃﻲ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪1363-85‬‬

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‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎﻱ ﺍﻣــﺮﻭﺯ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺳــﻮﺩﺩﻫﻲ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻔﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺳــﻠﺤﻪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻪ ﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑــﻪ ﻃــﻮﺭﻱ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺑﺎ ﮔــﺮﺩﺵ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪330‬‬ ‫ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺩﻻﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ 1000‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺷﺎﻏﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺭﺳﻤﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ [1] .‬ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﻳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻱ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺁﺳﺎﻥ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺳــﻨﺠﺶ ﻣﻴﻞ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨــﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﻲﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻤﺮﻛﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻳﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﺸــﺘﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻲﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﺳﺖ‪[2] .‬‬ ‫ﻣﺼــﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺭﻏﻢ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎﺕ ﮔﺴــﺘﺮﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺑﻬﻨﺠــﺎﺭ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﺟﺒﺎﺭﻱ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺷــﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺳــﻮﺩ ﺳﺮﺷــﺎﺭ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺤﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳــﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪ [1] .‬ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺁﻧﺴــﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻋﻴﻦ ﺣﺎﻝ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﻧﺴــﺒﻲ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺳــﺖ )ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩ ﺭﻭﺍﻧﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻴﻜﻮﺗﻴﻦ( ﻗﻄﻌ ًﺎ ﻣﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬ﮔﻤﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳﺮﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻓﺮﻕ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺷــﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻧﺸــﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﺸــﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻳﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳــﻂ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﭘﺮﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪[3] .‬‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﻱ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺣﺎﻛﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻧﻮﺳــﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ [4-10] .‬ﻣﺠﺎﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﻋﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺆﺛــﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻛﻢ ﺳــﺎﻻﻥ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤــﺖ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﻮﻣــ ًﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑــﺎﻻ ﺑﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﻴــﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﮔﻴــﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺑــﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ‪ WHO‬ﻣﺒﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺷــﻴﻮﻉ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﺸــﻴﺪﻥ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺘ ًﺎ ﺷﻴﻮﻉ ﺍﻣﺮﺍﺽ‬

‫ﻭ ﻣﺮگ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻛﻢ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪[11] .‬‬ ‫ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺩﺭﺻﺪﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﻱ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺭﺍﻫﻜﺎﺭﻫﺎﻳــﻲ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺧﺼﻮﺻ ًﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ‪1388‬؛‪(38) 12‬‬

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‫ﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﮋﻭﻫــﺶ ﺣﺎﺿــﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻔﻲ ‪ -‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳﺮﻱ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻃﻲ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪ 63-85‬ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﭼﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﻛﻼﻥ ﺷﻬﺮﻱ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻱ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﺍﺳﺮ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺎﺭﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺳــﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳــﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﻬﻴﻪ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻤــﺎﻡ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺎﻣــﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﻋــﺪﻡ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻓﺎﻗﺪ ﺧﻄﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﺍﺳــﻼﻣﻲ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ )ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺷــﻬﺮﻱ(‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ‪ ،‬ﺷــﺮﻛﺖ‬ ‫ﺩﺧﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ )ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ( ﻭ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳــﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﺳــﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺴــﺎﻧﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫‪ Excel‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﺍﻱ ﺩﺧﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺧﻮﺭﺍﻛﻲ ﺭﺳﻢ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫــﺎ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻧﺮﻡﺍﻓﺰﺍﺭ ‪ Eviews‬ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺳــﭙﺲ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲﻓﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪﺗﺠﺮﺑﻲﻣﻴﺎﻥﻗﻴﻤﺖﺗﻨﺒﺎﻛﻮﺑﺎﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻳﻚ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺷﻨﺎﺳــﻲ ﻃﺮﺍﺣﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺪﺗﺎ ﻋﻮﺍﺭﺽ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﺴﻨﺠﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪﺑﻪﻓﺎﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻣﺸﻜﻞﺍﺻﻠﻲﺩﺭﻣﺪﻝﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺳﻨﺠﻲﻗﺪﻳﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬


‫ﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﺑﻮﺍﻟﻘﺎﺳﻢ ﮔﺮﺟﻲ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ‬

‫ﭼﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﻧﻈﺮﻱ‬ ‫ﻣــﺪﻝ ﻋﺎﺩﺕ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‪ :‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑــﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺗﻮﺃﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﻋﺎﺩﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ ﺗﻤﺮﻛﺰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﭼﻮﻥ ﻋﺎﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﻃﻲ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﻲﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫــﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻟﺬﺍ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ‪ k‬ﺍﻧﺘﮕــﺮﺍﻝ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻓﺮﺩ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ ‪ k‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﮔﺬﺷــﺘﻪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺷﻜﻞ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬ ‫‪K=k(T)=∫exp (-r(T-t)Y(t)dt‬‬ ‫‪ t‬ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ‬

‫‪D‬‬

‫)‪ Y(t‬ﻋﺎﻳــﺪﻱ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﻓــﺮﺩ‪ r>0 ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻨﺰﻳﻞ‪ T ،‬ﻟﺤﻈﻪ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮﻱ‪،‬‬

‫‪PC≤0‬גּ‪∆C=TSrc+THψC-‬‬ ‫‪PZ=0‬גּ‪∆Z=TZ-‬‬ ‫‪=I-PCC-PZZ=0‬גּ∆‬

‫ﺻﺮﻑﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻞﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﻮﺷــﻪﺍﻱ ﻭ ﺍﺳــﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻱ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﺸﺘﻖ ﮔﻴﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻛﺰﻳﻤﻮﻡﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺩﺭﻭﻧﻲ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪:‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪SS c‬‬

‫)‪θ1=(T r +TSrCC+THHψ +THψCC+2TSHrCψC‬‬

‫‪SI‬‬

‫ﻋﻘﻴﺪﻩ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺳــﻄﻮﺡ ﮔﺬﺷــﺘﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺑــﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿــﺎﻱ ﻟﺤﻈﻪﺍﻱ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﻋﺎﺩﺕ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺛﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻮﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻱ ﻟﺤﻈﻪﺍﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫)‪θ2=(TSSrCrK+TSrCK+THHψCψK+rKψC‬‬ ‫)‪θ3=(TSZrK+THZψK‬‬

‫ﺩﺗﺮﻣﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ ‪) Ф‬ﻣﺸــﺘﻖ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ( ﺑﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻣﺎﻛﺰﻳﻤﻮﻡﺳــﺎﺯﻱ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﻴﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛــﻪ ‪ Фij‬ﺩﺭﺍﻳﻪ ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ ‪ Ф‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﭘﺎﺳــﺦﻫﺎﻱ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺯﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪:‬‬

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‫))‪dK(t) ⁄dt=Y(t)-r(K(t‬‬

‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺮﺝ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ‪ Z‬ﺑﻪ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﻲ‬ ‫ﺟﺰ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺗﺎﻛﺮ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ‪:‬‬

‫)‪MaxU=U(Z,X‬‬ ‫)‪St:Z=r(y,k‬‬ ‫‪I=PyY+PxX‬‬

‫)‪MaxU=T(S,H,Z‬‬ ‫)‪H=ψ(C,K,Ω‬‬ ‫‪I=PcC+PzZ‬‬ ‫‪K=K0‬‬

‫ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻻﮔﺮﺍﻧﮋﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻮﺷﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪:‬‬‫)‪(I-PcC-PzZ‬גּ‪)=T(r(C,K,Ω),ψ(C,K,Ω),Z)+‬גּ‪∆(C,Z,‬‬

‫)‪d C ⁄d I=|Ф|-1(Ф31‬‬

‫ﺟﻤــﻼﺕ ‪Ф11‬גּ‪ /‬ﺩﺗﺮﻣﻴﻨﺎﻥ ‪ Ф‬ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻟﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺟﺒﺮﺍﻧﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﻨﺪ‪.‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻨﺠــﺎ גּ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ‪ Ф11‬ﻭ ‪ Ф21‬ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﺎﻭﺏ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﻨﺪ ﻭ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ‪ Ф31‬ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ )‪C‬‬ ‫ﻧﺮﻣﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ( ‪ d C ⁄d P‬ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ‪ C‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫‪ K‬ﻣﺸــﺎﺑﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ‪ d Y ⁄d K‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻋﺎﺩﺕ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪:‬‬ ‫)‪d C ⁄d K=-|Ф|-1(θ2Ф11+θ3Ф21‬‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﻋﻼﻣﺖ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺯﻳﺮﺍ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ‬ ‫‪ θ2‬ﻭ ‪ θ3‬ﺩﺭ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﺒــﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻧﻤﻲﮔﻨﺠــﺪ‪ r .‬ﻭ ‪ ψ‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ‪ d C ⁄d K‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﭘﺎﺳــﺦ ‪ C‬ﺑــﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴــﺮﺍﺕ ‪) Ω‬ﺑﻪ ﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﺁﻣــﻮﺯﺵ ‪ (E‬ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ )ﻓﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺁﻣــﻮﺯﺵ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺎﻭﺭﻱ ﻣﺸــﺎﻫﺪﻩ ‪ ψ‬ﺑﻪ ﺳــﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻣﺰﺑﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ‪ ψCE‬ﻭ ‪ ψE‬ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ(‪:‬‬ ‫‪-1‬‬

‫)‪d C ⁄d E=-|Ф| (θ4Ф11+TZHψEФ21‬‬

‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ‪1388‬؛‪(38) 12‬‬

‫)‪St:S=r(C,K,Ω‬‬

‫)‪Ф21+ZФ31‬גּ(‪d C ⁄d PZ=|Ф|-1‬‬

‫‪Ar‬‬

‫ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﺸﻴﺪﻥ‪ :‬ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺳﺘﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺮﺟﻴﺤﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﻨــﻲ ﺑــﺮ )‪ (S,H,Z‬ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ‪ Z‬ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻫﻴﻜﺴــﻲ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪S,H ،‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻓﻨﺎﻭﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﻨﺪ ﻛــﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﻮﺍﺑﻊ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫‪ r‬ﻭ ‪ ψ‬ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺷــﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻋﺎﺩﺕ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ‪ K0‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ‪ I‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ‪:‬‬

‫)‪Ф11+CФ31‬גּ(‪d C ⁄d PC=|Ф|-1‬‬

‫‪ch‬‬

‫‪K=K0‬‬

‫‪ive‬‬

‫ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻱ ﻋﺎﻧﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴــﺌﻠﻪ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻗﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻤــﻞ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺗــﺰ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ‪ Z‬ﺗﺤﺖ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴــﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴــﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﺤﻈﻪﺍﻱ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ K0=KT‬ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻓﺮﺽ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪θ4=-(TSHTC+THHψC)ψE+THψCE‬‬

‫‪33‬‬

‫‪www.SID.ir‬‬


‫ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﻥ ﻃﻲ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪1363-85‬‬

‫‪D‬‬

‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ ‪ dC⁄dE‬ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺸــﺨﺺ ﻧﻤﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌــﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫــﺎﻱ ﺳــﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ ‪ 63-85‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺳــﺮﻱ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳــﺖ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺸــﺎﻫﺪﺍﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺗﺼﺎﺩﻓﻲ ﻃﻲ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﻔﺮﻭﺽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻭ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕــﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﻤﺒﺴــﺘﮕﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺯﻣــﺎﻥ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻤﺎﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺗــﺎ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﮔﺮﺩﺩﻭ ﺑﺪﻳﻬﻲ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺷــﻜﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ‬ ‫ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧﻜﻨﺪ ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻣﺎﻧﺎﻳﻲ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻲﺷــﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﺮﺭﺳــﻲ ﻣﺎﻧﺎﻳﻲ ﻳﻚ ﺳــﺮﻱ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﻢﺍﻧﺒﺎﺷــﺘﮕﻲ )ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ‪ DF‬ﻳﺎ ‪ ADF‬ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ‬ ‫‪ Ut‬ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻨﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺭﮔﺮﺳﻴﻮﻥ ﻫﻢ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﮕﻲ ﻭ ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ﻫﻢﺍﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﮕﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺑﻴﻦ ‪ -‬ﻭﺍﺗﺴــﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ‪ OLS‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ‪[12-17].‬‬

‫‪ :logP‬ﻟﮕﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ )ﺭﻳﺎﻝ(‬ ‫‪ :logI‬ﻟﮕﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﻱ )ﺭﻳﺎﻝ(‬ ‫‪ :logI2‬ﻟﮕﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ‪) 2‬ﺭﻳﺎﻝ(‬ ‫‪ :EDU‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ‬ ‫‪ :U‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫‪ :MA2‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﻃﻼﻕ‬

‫‪SI‬‬

‫‪of‬‬

‫ﺑﺤﺚ ﻭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ 0.45‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ )‪ (P‬ﺑﺎ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣــﻲﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽــﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ‪ 1‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻣﺘﻮﺳــﻂ ﻟﮕﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ 45‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻭ ﭼﻮﻥ ﻛﺸﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬ ‫‪-0.45‬ﺍﺳﺖ‪،‬ﻟﺬﺍﺍﮔﺮﻗﻴﻤﺖ‪1‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪﺑﺎﻻﺭﻭﺩﻣﺼﺮﻑﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪45‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﻛﺸﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻳﻲ ﻛﻢ ﻛﺸﺶ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺁﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ive‬‬

‫‪logQ=-logP+logI-logI2+EDU-U MA2‬‬

‫ﺭﻗــﻢ ‪ 0.135‬ﺩﺭ ﻣــﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧــﻮﺍﺭ )‪ (I‬ﺑﺎ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺳــﺎﻳﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽــﻪ ﻟﮕﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ‪ 1‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻣﺘﻮﺳــﻂ ‪ LogQ‬ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ 0.135‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﭼﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﺸــﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ‪ 0.135‬ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ‪ 1‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺩ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ‪ 0.135‬ﺩﺭﺻــﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﻲ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ ﻧﺮﻣﺎﻝ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪ch‬‬

‫ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ‪ 1‬ﻧﺸــﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳــﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ‬ ‫‪ ADF‬ﺩﺭ ﺳــﻄﺢ ﻣﻌﻨﻲﺩﺍﺭﻱ ‪ 5‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻭ ‪ 10‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻧﺦ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳــﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻣﺎﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴــﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧﺎ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﺭﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬

‫‪E QP=%∆Q ⁄ ∆P=∆lnQ ⁄ lnP=-0.45‬‬

‫‪ :logQ‬ﻟﮕﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﻱ )ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻧﺦ(‬

‫‪E QI=%∆Q ⁄ ∆I=∆lnQ ⁄ lnI=0.135‬‬

‫‪Ar‬‬

‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ‪1388‬؛‪(38) 12‬‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :1‬ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ‪ ADF‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻳﻲ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻟﮕﻮ‬ ‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ‬

‫ﻭﻗﻔﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬

‫ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺒﺪﺍ‬

‫ﻛﻤﻴﺖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ )‪(ADF‬‬

‫‪ 1‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬

‫‪ 5‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬

‫‪ 10‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬

‫ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬

‫‪-3.26‬‬

‫‪-3.78‬‬

‫‪-3.01‬‬

‫‪-2.64‬‬

‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬

‫‪-2.69‬‬

‫‪-3.76‬‬

‫‪-3.004‬‬

‫‪-2.64‬‬

‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬

‫‪-2.12‬‬

‫‪-3.78‬‬

‫‪-3.01‬‬

‫‪-2.64‬‬

‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬

‫‪-3.02‬‬

‫‪-3.76‬‬

‫‪-3.004‬‬

‫‪-2.64‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‬

‫‪-0.126‬‬

‫‪-3.8‬‬

‫‪-3.02‬‬

‫‪-2.65‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩ‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‬

‫‪-4.27‬‬

‫‪-3.85‬‬

‫‪-3.04‬‬

‫‪-2.66‬‬

‫)‪ 1‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‪ 5 ،‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻭ ‪ 10‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻧﻲ ﻣﻚ ﻛﻨﻴﻮﻥ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ(‬

‫‪34‬‬

‫‪www.SID.ir‬‬


‫ﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﺑﻮﺍﻟﻘﺎﺳﻢ ﮔﺮﺟﻲ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :2‬ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ‬

‫‪Log p‬‬

‫‪Log I‬‬

‫‪log I2‬‬

‫‪EDU‬‬

‫‪U‬‬

‫‪MA2‬‬

‫ﺿﺮﺍﻳﺐ‬

‫‪-0.45‬‬

‫‪1.47‬‬

‫‪-0.05‬‬

‫‪-0.036‬‬

‫‪0.017‬‬

‫‪-0.904‬‬

‫ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻩ ‪t‬‬

‫‪-2.75‬‬

‫‪13.34‬‬

‫‪-6.15‬‬

‫‪-14.55‬‬

‫‪1.84‬‬

‫‪-5.036‬‬

‫ﺍﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ‬

‫‪0.16‬‬

‫‪0.11‬‬

‫‪0.008‬‬

‫‪0.002‬‬

‫‪0.009‬‬

‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪2.65‬‬

‫ﺩﻭﺭﺑﻴﻦ ﻭﺍﺗﺴﻮﻥ‬

‫‪D‬‬

‫ﺭﻗــﻢ ‪ 0.05‬ﺩﺭ ﻣــﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ‪ LogI2‬ﺑﻴــﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻳﻜﻨﻮﺍﺧﺖ ﻧﻴﺴــﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺭﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳــﻄﻮﺡ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ‬ ‫ﺻﺮﻑ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺩ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺍﺷﺒﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﺭﺳــﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻛﺰﻳﻤﻮﻡ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻟﺬﺍ ﻛﺸﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻱ ﺁﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴــﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻫﻨــﺪﻩ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪ ﻣﺬﻛﻮﺭ ﺗﺄﻳﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﺷــﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻨﺪﺓ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ 0.017‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬ ‫‪ 1‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪0.017‬‬ ‫ﻧــﺦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳــﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻛــﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﺏ ﻋــﺪﺩ ‪ 0.017‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻱ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻛﺸﺶ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ 1‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ‪ 2‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﻓﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ 0.036‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬ ‫‪ 1‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ‪ 0.036-‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﺏ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻗﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺳــﺮﻱ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻛﺸــﺶ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺤﺎﺳــﺒﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ‪ 1‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ‪ 2.7‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ‪SE‬ﻫﺎ )ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﭘﺮﺍﻛﻨﺪﮔﻲ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺯﻥ ﻫﺎ( ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﻥﻫﺎ ﻛﻮﭼﻚ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻟﺬﺍ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﻜﺎﻱ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﻥﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻫﻤﺎﻥﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﻲﺷــﻮﺩ ﺿﺮﺍﻳﺐ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳــﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ‬ ‫)ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫــﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺤﻲ( ﺑﺮ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻧﺦ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ )ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﻪ( ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ 5‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲﺩﺍﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ R2=96% .‬ﺑﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣــﻲﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ‪ 96‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻭﺍﺑﺴــﺘﻪ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﻟﮕﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ‬

‫‪SI‬‬

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‫ﻣﻘــﺪﺍﺭ ﻣــﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ )ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻧﺦ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ( ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳــﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫــﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺤﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺧﻄﻲ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻣﻲﺷــﻮﺩ‪ R2=95% .‬ﺑﻴــﺎﻥ ﻣﻲﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺯﻣﺎﻧــﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻛﺎﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳــﺶ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺤﻲ ﺑــﺮ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺸــﺪﻩ ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﻫــﺶ ﺍﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑﻫﺎﻱ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺣﺬﻑ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ 95‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﻟﮕﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ )ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻧﺦ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ( ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺤﻲ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺑﻴﻦ ‪ -‬ﻭﺍﺗﺴﻮﻥ ‪ 2.65‬ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﭘﺲ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﻣﺎ ﺩﭼﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﻧﻤﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻃﻼﻕ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ 5‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﻟﺬﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣــﺪﻝ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ ﻣﺎ ﻣﺸــﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﻧﻤﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺿﺮﺍﻳﺐ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻡ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﺳــﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ‪ 5‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻫﻤﺎﻥﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﺴــﺄﻟﻪ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺄﻳﻴﺪ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﻛﺸﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﻻﻱ‬ ‫ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺳــﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻳﻲ ﻛﻢ ﻛﺸﺶ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺁﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺑﺮ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﺍﺯﺩﺧﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﻧﻤﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪[4-18] .‬‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﺷــﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺑﻴــﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻃﻼﻕ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻲﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻃﺒﻖ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻً ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺼــﺮﻑ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺮﺯﻧﺪﺍﻥ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻃﻼﻕ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺤﻜﺎﻡ ﺑﻨﻴﺎﻥ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ ﻓﺮﺯﻧﺪﺍﻥ ﻃﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﻮﻟﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﻣﻲﺳﺎﺯﺩ‪.‬‬

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1363-85 ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻴﮕﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﻥ ﻃﻲ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻱ‬

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cigarette and price  
cigarette and price  

about relations between cigarettes and their price

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