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ITPM Response and Comments. Trey. This was not a perfect submission. With a word count of 2,000 words you could have completed further research into the risks of Oil NOT going to $5 other than Geopolitical. Additionally, there were no charts / descriptive statistics to help the reader visualize some of the very valid points you were making. However, you have displayed unlike the vast majority of entries an ability to think critically, creatively, outside the box and with decent logical reasoning. The way you construct your arguments and your case however does need work. You displayed immediately that you understood the question and didn’t waste any time in getting to the meat and potatoes of what your view is and why you back your own view. I liked this approach! You mentioned plenty of headwinds in the first part of your answer like demographics and renewables and you seem to be piecing together intuitively (almost without realizing it) your view is that the pace of Renewable development is set to outpace developed world Demographics. This is something many highlevel research analysts in the industry have concluded. I liked this as it shows you have not even formally researched / read about this properly but you somehow know about it instinctively. You are displaying here evidence of critical thinking ability but not in a formal way. This is evidence of a raw talent to think critically. I especially liked your thought process on the breakup of OPEC. You were literally the only person who submitted a response to the competition that stated the case for this. Again, displaying a different way of thinking and ability to think outside the box. You concentrated a lot on Fracking and production costs which I also liked, because these issues are structural to the industry and have nothing to do with cyclicality which most people seem to concentrate on or find difficult in separating and formalizing. You were also one of the very few people that chose to analyze the impacts of a Bond bear market and the likely impact on Oil prices. Another example of stating a case of different thinking. Stats – You were also one of the very few people to go back as far as the 1800’s when looking at the Oil price and the prices of the period 1946-1960. Where you fall down is on the structure of your arguments and basically nailing your case i.e. making it so it is very difficult to argue against. In some parts, you even argue with yourself. It would have been good to see descriptive stats, data and charts that prove either categorically or with high probability that what you are saying will happen. Slam the final nail in the coffin by making the reader realize they have no comeback. This exercise is fruitful because in trading if you can find evidence with massive conviction then you find trades with high conviction. It’s not about proving to me (the reader) that you’re right, it’s about proving it to yourself and having total conviction in your case. So, when you take positions you know why you are in them AND you have total conviction with a plan to exit if it goes wrong. Overall, given your age and background this was a really really good entry. Hence why we chose you as a winner. I can tell by reading this that you do not have the formal “university” style of putting together an Essay submission / debate with reference citing and proper academic structure. But it doesn’t matter. We are testing for Critical Thought, Creative Thought, Logical Reasoning and ability to think outside the box here. Which you have displayed. I really like how your mind works. It is evident you have a raw talent and

Florida Scholarship Winner Trey