Looking for low fertility determinants in the European Union Fernando Gil-Alonso
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5. Conclusions The results obtained from the Eurobarometer are contrary to those initially expected. Across the EU, achieved fertility is negatively correlated to a more egalitarian division of domestic work – more specifically, to ideal childcare and actual housework sharing, but not to actual childcare sharing. Though future planned fertility is positively correlated to a more egalitarian ideal childcare task sharing, the relationship is weak. Interestingly, it is less significant than the link between fertility and other demographical and socioeconomic factors such as women’s education level, which bears a strong negative correlation to actual fertility. The evidence found therefore indicates that the influence of a more balanced division of domestic tasks on fertility rates is extremely low. Nonetheless, this result does not contradict the fact that European countries have reached a certain degree of gender equality and this is somewhat related – in a more complex way than previously stated in the initial hypothesis – to the different fertility levels. Again, education seems to be a key factor in explaining this complex relationship. Evidence for Germany (Kreyenfeld, 2002) and Spain (González and Jurado-Guerre ro, 2006) show that more educated women are far more likely to remain childless. As the female education level is positively related to a more balanced ideal and actual domestic task sharing, this may indirectly explain why, at EU level, our initial hypothesis has been rejected. Even so, as explained in the introduction, evidence from other more advanced mother-friendly policy countries, such as Scandinavian ones, shows a positive correlation (Brodmann et al., 2007) which compared to the Danish and Spanish cases gives a plausible explanation for these differences: “Danish women are more likely to have a second child because welfare state support makes reconciliation of motherhood and careers easier. […] Danish career women are additionally able to reduce the opportunity costs of motherhood via enhanced fatherly childcare due to bargaining between spouses” (Brodmann et al., 2007: 599). At the other end of the scale, in Spain, where traditional gender norms still prevail, there is less scope for pressing for a more egalitarian gender distribution of domestic tasks. Therefore, “Spanish women face far more severe trade-offs. […] Women with strong career ambitions are more likely to renounce motherhood altogether, but those that do become mothers appear to adhere more closely to conventional norms” (Brodmann et al., 2007: 608). Nevertheless, this may also be due to the fact that Spanish women who become mothers have no other option than to increase their domestic workload and to adapt their childcare sharing ideals to the harsh reality. In any event, this could also be applied to other southern European countries, some central European ones – such as Germany or Austria – and practically all new Member States (where, as observed, the negative correlation is stronger than in the former EU-15 countries). The fact that most EU countries and Turkey show this uneven gender task distribution may explain the results obtained for the European Union as a whole using Eurobarometer data. Unfortunately, in our research, differences at national level do not appear to be relevant. The correlation between task distribution and fertility is weaker for each individual country than for the two overall groups of countries analysed and, in some countries, the relationship does not even exist. Yet, this could be mainly due to the small size of the national samples used in Eurobarometers. Accordingly, it is not possible to analyse the specific causes behind these links at national level and reach deeper conclusions using this dataset. In order to do that, a more complete data source, specifically designed to provide larger samples at national level – with longitudinal / panel data, if possible – would be required.
6. References Adserà, A. (2004). “Changing Fertility Rates in Developed Countries. The Impact of Labor Market Institutions”. Journal of Population Economics, issue no. 17, pp. 17-43. Ahn, N.; Mira, P. (2001). “A Note on the Relationship between Fertility and Female Employment Rates in Developed Countries”. Journal of Population Economics, vol. 15, issue no. 4, pp. 667-682.
Revista Catalana de Sociologia, núm. 29 (desembre 2014), p. 71-89
associació catalana de sociologia