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INFOCUS|INDIA-CHINA|GEO-POLITICS

WKHKLJKHVWLQWKH$VLD3DFL¿FUHJLRQ %XWLWVSURYHQUHVHUYHVFRQVWLWXWHMXVW  SHU FHQW RI WKH ZRUOG WRWDO IRU D FRXQWU\ZLWKSHUFHQWRIWKHZRUOG¶V SRSXODWLRQ &KLQD¶V WRWDO RLO DQG OLT uids production, the fourth largest in the world, has risen by about 54 per FHQW RYHU WKH SDVW WZR GHFDGHV DQG VHUYHV RQO\ LWV GRPHVWLF PDUNHW ,Q WKLV VNHZHG PDWUL[ RI GHPDQG DQG VXSSO\ &KLQD¶V SURGXFWLRQ JURZWK IDLOV WR PDWFK LWV GHPDQG JURZWK 7KHUHIRUHZLWKDQRLOLPSRUWRISHU FHQW &KLQD SHUFHLYHV KHDY\ HQHUJ\ VKRUWDJHV IURP D FRQVWULFWHG JOREDO PDUNHW DV RQH RI LWV JUDYHVW WKUHDWV ,W KDV EHFRPH D QHFHVVLW\ IRU &KLQD to secure its energy access in order to VXVWDLQLWVUDSLGHFRQRPLFJURZWK

IN ORDER TO AVERT SECURITY IMPEDIMENTS AND REDUCE ITS DEPENDENCY ON THE GULF FOR OIL, CHINA IS NOW DIVERTING ITS ENERGY ATTENTION TOWARDS ITS WESTWARD NEIGHBOUR, CENTRAL ASIA Meeting the Needs from Central Asia &KLQD¶V RLO QHHGV DUH PDLQO\ PHW by external sources; the current sup SO\RIRLOWR&KLQDPDLQO\FRPHVIURP WKH 0LGGOH (DVW $IULFD $VLD3DFL¿F DQG (XUDVLD 6LQFH WKH PLGV SHUFHQWRIWKHRLOVXSSO\FDPH IURPERWK$IULFDDQGWKH0LGGOH(DVW VSHFL¿FDOO\ 6DXGL $UDELD $QJROD DQG ,UDQPDNLQJXSDOPRVWSHUFHQWRI WKHWRWDORLOVXSSO\IURPWKHUHJLRQ ,Q WKLV VXSSO\ FKDLQ &KLQD IDFHV GLI¿FXOWLHVLQWHUPVRIGLVWDQWUHJLRQV WKDW SRVH VHFXULW\ WKUHDWV LQ WHUPV RI PDLQWDLQLQJ UHJLRQDO VWDELOLW\ DV ZHOO DV HQVXULQJ DGHTXDF\ WR PHHW WKH HQHUJ\ GHPDQGV ,W LV LQ WKH UDWLRQDO LQWHUHVW RI &KLQD WR GLYHUVLI\ LWV VXS SOLHVDZD\IURPWKHUHJLRQLQSDUWLFX ODU WKH 3HUVLDQ *XOI ZKLFK DFFRXQWV IRURYHUKDOIRILWVRLOLPSRUWV7KLVLV |30| India-China Chronicle ƒ March-April 2015

EHFDXVHWKHUHJLRQLVQRWMXVWPDUUHG E\ FRQÀLFW EXW DOVR E\ WKH IDFW WKDW &KLQD¶V KHDY\ UHOLDQFH RQ *XOI RLO PHDQV WKDW  SHU FHQW RI LWV FUXGH LPSRUWV DUULYH E\ WDQNHUV WKDW PXVW QDYLJDWHULVN\VHDODQHV +HQFH LQ RUGHU WR DYHUW WKHVH VHFXULW\ LPSHGLPHQWV DQG UHGXFH LWV GHSHQGHQF\RQWKH*XOIIRURLO&KLQD LV QRZ GLYHUWLQJ LWV HQHUJ\ DWWHQWLRQ WRZDUGV LWV ZHVWZDUG QHLJKERXU ± &HQWUDO$VLDZKLFKSURYLGHVDYDOXDEOH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR &KLQD ERWK LQ WHUPV RI JHRJUDSKLF SUR[LPLW\ DV ZHOO DV D SRWHQWLDO HQHUJ\ VHFXULW\ LQ WHUPV RI VXSSO\DQGGHPDQG&RRSHUDWLRQZLWK D QHLJKERXULQJ UHJLRQ OLNH &HQWUDO $VLD HQVXUHV D VHFXUH VXSSO\ RI RLO DQGJDVIRU&KLQD7KHUHIRUH&KLQD¶V JHRSROLWLFDO VKLIW WRZDUGV &HQWUDO $VLD LV GULYHQ E\ WKH VKHHU SUR[LPLW\ RI &HQWUDO $VLD D YLDEOH SDUWQHU LQ HQHUJ\ WUDGH DQG LQYHVWPHQW WKDW DOORZVLWWRFXWWUDQVSRUWFRVWVKDYHD PRUH GLUHFW LQÀXHQFH RQ WKH VWDELOLW\ of a region so near, and also aids LQ WKH SURFHVV RI GLYHUVL¿FDWLRQ RI HQHUJ\LPSRUWV &KLQD¶V IRRWSULQW LQ &HQWUDO $VLD took a strategic shift with its rapid HFRQRPLF JURZWK ZKLFK SURPSWHG VXEVWDQWLDORLOGHPDQGJURZWKHTXDW ed with geopolitical uncertainties, re VXOWLQJLQWKHQHHGIRU&KLQDWRLPSRUW JUHDWHUYROXPHVRIRLOIURPZLGHUDQJH RI VRXUFHV 7KDW LV WKH JHRSROLWLFDO XQFHUWDLQWLHVFDXVHGE\LQVWDELOLW\RI

WKH 0LGGOH (DVW ZKLFK LV WKH ODUJHVW VRXUFH RI &KLQD¶V FUXGH RLO LPSRUWV  DQG WKH $PHULFDQ SUHVHQFH WKH SDV VDJHRISHUFHQWRI&KLQD¶VRLOLP ports through Malacca Strait, with its VHFXULW\SUREOHPVWKHQHHGWRGLYHUVL fy its energy suppliers, and the neces VLW\ WR GHYHORS WKH QRUWKZHVW &KLQD KDYHGHWHUPLQHGWKHUHRULHQWDWLRQRI &KLQD¶VIRUHLJQHQHUJ\SROLF\WRZDUGV &HQWUDO $VLD 7KHVH YXOQHUDELOLWLHV KDYH IRUFHG &KLQD WR PRYH ZHVWZDUG IRURXWVLGHUHVRXUFHV $ VLJQL¿FDQW DVSHFW RI &KLQD¶V HQ HUJ\ SROLWLFV LQ &HQWUDO $VLD LV FKDU DFWHULVHG E\ RLO SLSHOLQHV 7KH ¿UVW WUDQVQDWLRQDO RLO SLSHOLQH FDPH LQWR IRUFH LQ 0D\  ZKLFK UHFHLYHV .D]DNKDQG5XVVLDQRLOIURPWKHSLSH OLQH RULJLQDWLQJ LQ .D]DNKVWDQ 7KLV

Source: Phil Ebersole’s Blog, The geography of Pipelineistan, March 28, 2013.

EEOG SLSHOLQH VSDQV  PLOHV FRQQHFWLQJ $W\UDX LQ ZHVWHUQ .D]DNKVWDQ ZLWK $ODVKDQNRX RQ WKH &KLQHVHERUGHULQ;LQMLDQJ7KHRWKHU VLJQL¿FDQWVRXUFHLVWKH&HQWUDO$VLD &KLQD *DV 3LSHOLQH &$*3  ZKLFK EHJDQWRIXQFWLRQLQ7KLVSLSH OLQHUXQVNLORPHWUHVIURP7XUN PHQLVWDQ¶VRQVKRUH¿HOGVWKURXJK8] EHNLVWDQDQG.D]DNKVWDQWR;LQMLDQJ +HQFH&HQWUDO$VLDLVQRZ&KLQD¶VRQH RIWKHJHRSROLWLFDOKRWVSRWVWRIXO¿OOLWV energy needs and thereby, sustain its HFRQRP\$GLUHFWO\SURSRUWLRQDOUHOD WLRQVKLS H[LVWV EHWZHHQ &KLQD¶V HQHU J\QHHGVDQGLWVHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQG GHYHORSPHQW +HUH WKH GHVWDELOL]LQJ IDFWRU LV WKH H[LVWLQJ OLPLWHG HQHUJ\ VXSSOLHV WR PHHW WKH LQFUHDVLQJ GH PDQG IRU UHVRXUFHV ,Q WKLV GHPDQG VXSSO\JDSWKHYRODWLOLW\RIWKHHQHUJ\ PDUNHW LV IXUWKHU UHVXOWLQJ LQ JUHDWHU VHFXULW\FRQFHUQV 7R DYRLG DQ HQHUJ\ FULVLV &KLQD LV WU\LQJWRGLYHUVLI\LWVHQHUJ\QHHGVLQ RUGHUWRPHHWWKHVRDULQJHOHFWULFDODQG LQGXVWULDOGHPDQGVDQGWKHUHE\IRVWHU VWDELOLW\ERWKLQVLGH&KLQDDVZHOODV LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\ WR LWV JOREDO SUR¿OH $QG LQ WKLV SHUVSHFWLYH &HQWUDO $VLD offers a geopolitical opportunity for &KLQD WR IXO¿OO LWV HQHUJ\ GHPDQGV WKDWUHJXODWHVWKHHFRQRPLFREMHFWLYHV LQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDODUHQD‰

Amrita Jash is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for East Asian Studies (Chinese Studies), School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

March-April 2015 ƒ India-China Chronicle |31|

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