Rejuvenating South Africa's Economy - a financial sector perspective

INCLUSIVE SOCIETY INSTITUTE

Rejuvenating South Africa’s Economy – a financial sector perspective April 2021

Copyright © 2021 Inclusive Society Institute 50 Long Street Cape Town, 8001 South Africa Registration: 235-515 NPO All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Inclusive Society Institute

DISCLAIMER Views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of the Inclusive Society Institute or those of their respective Board or Council members. All records and findings included in this report, originate from a panel discussion on developing a new economic blueprint for South Africa, which took place in March 2021

Author: Mariaan Webb, Creamer Media Writer Edited by: Daryl Swanepoel

Contents Abbreviations & acronyms...........................................................4 Introduction...................................................................................5 Identifying weaknesses...............................................................6 • Policy uncertainty...................................................................................6 • Broad-based black economic empowerment......................................7 • Education.................................................................................................8 • Fiscal crisis.............................................................................................8 • Incompetence and corruption limiting State capacity......................9 • Institutional weakness..........................................................................9 • Labour and skills.....................................................................................9 • Lack of competition............................................................................ 10

Interventions for fostering growth.......................................... 11 Conclusion.................................................................................. 15 References.................................................................................. 16

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Abbreviations & acronyms AfCFTA....................................................African Continental Free Trade Area BBBEE.....................................broad-based black economic empowerment ISI............................................................................Inclusive Society Institute IMF...................................................................... International Monetary Fund IPP.......................................................................independent power producer MP.................................................................................. Member of Parliament NDP....................................................................... National Development Plan OECD.............. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PGM.............................................................................. platinum-group metals SABC...............................................South African Broadcasting Corporation SEZ...............................................................................special economic zone SoE............................................................................. State-owned enterprise Stats SA.......................................................................Statistics South Africa UN............................................................................................... United Nations

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Introduction

T

his report is a summary of themes from discussions held by the Inclusive Society Institute (ISI) with the financial sector on the reasons behind South Africa’s depressed growth performance, but more importantly to gather innovative thought and a new perspective for

placing the country on a path of sustainable and inclusive growth.

The dialogue forms part of the ISI’s comprehensive research to develop a new growth-centred economic blueprint for South Africa, assessing the current performance of the National Development Plan (NDP) and presenting fresh ideas.

The first phase of the research involved studying previously distressed economies that have turned themselves around within a short space of time, with a focus on Japan, South Korea, and Germany.

The second phase delves into South Africa’s policies, highlighting strengths, weaknesses, and interventions that could catapult the sluggish economy onto a higher growth path. Owing to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, South Africa’s economy contracted by 7% in 2020 (Stats SA, 2021a). This severe contraction is estimated to have pushed about two-million people into poverty, as defined by those living below the poverty line for upper-middle income countries of $5.50 a day (World Bank, 2021). It is projected that the economy’s annual growth will be 3.10% in 2021 and 2% in 2022 (IMF, 2021).

The ISI believes South Africa requires at least 4% to 5% economic growth to effectively begin to reduce the country’s entrenched high levels of unemployment, inequality, and poverty.

Participants, both local and international contributors, were asked to identify the weaknesses in South Africa’s economic policies and to offer ideas about where the country’s focus and priorities should be.

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Identifying weaknesses

S

outh Africa has severe and deep-seated structural weaknesses. The unemployment rate has risen to 32.50% (narrow definition) in the fourth quarter of 2020 – the highest in at least 13 years (Stats SA, 2021b). Per capita growth has been declining since its

peak of 2014 to a level last seen in 2005 (Stats SA, 2021c). South Africa is also one of the most unequal countries in the world, reporting a per capita expenditure Gini coefficient of 0.65 in 2015. The top 10% of the population spend nearly eight times more than the bottom 40% (Stats SA, 2020).

The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated existing shortcomings, exposing the economy’s major weaknesses, including, among others, stagnant growth, inequality, rising national debt and severe electricity challenges.

Despite substantial social spending, government outcomes remain poor – whether that be in education, health, or social grants. Several participants mentioned South Africa’s unsustainable debt situation, which will require higher growth to address it. More foreign investment will be needed for economic growth and to restore fiscal soundness.

Observations were made about policy formulation, implementation and communication across different sectors, such as improving education outcomes, dealing with land reform, and restructuring State-owned enterprises, including power utility Eskom.

The country is also only just beginning to address a decade of State capture, run-down and repurposed State capacity, and related institutional weaknesses.

Policy uncertainty Policy certainty is critical to driving investment in any economy. South Africa is ultimately competing for global investment, but uncertainty is undermining its drive to attract investors and thereby its prospects for growth. Concerns have been raised about policy certainty in energy, mining, and land reform. Investors are uncertain that laws will not change, and this makes the investment climate uncompetitive.

Policy implementation paralysis, especially related to the NDP, policy communication and policy discord are hampering progress.

Policy implementation paralysis . . . policy communication and policy discord are hampering progress.

The NDP, which serves as an overarching policy blueprint for the country and aims to eradicate poverty, inequality, and unemployment by 2030, was effectively shelved under the previous administration. While widely regarded as a well-written document, the NDP is considered too broad and the time in which reform is expected too long. Although strong in certain areas, particularly its broad economic plan, the NDP lacks specifics when it comes to

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Identifying weaknesses certain sectors, for example financial services. It acknowledges the need for financial inclusion and refers to access to capital, but lacks substance on how this should be implemented. Targets are also no longer attainable and need to be recalibrated.

Some other emerging economies have had substantial success with development plans that have a shorter timeframe than the long-term planning period of the NDP. Malaysia, for instance, practices a system of centralised economic development planning with five-yearly development plans (OECD, 2016). Policy plans should also be supported by effective participation of citizenship (OECD, 2017). The NDP has been ineffective in communicating its plans to the public and does not encourage a system of accountability.

In the past ten years, various sector-focused policies have also been developed and launched with much fanfare, but a few years down the line, not much has happened. One example is Eskom – despite government hiring financial adviser Lazard in 2018 to draft a plan to shore up the struggling utility’s balance sheet, it remains a real risk to the sovereign (Reuters, 2018).

This begs the question: Why should an investor, without an emotional attachment to South Africa, believe what the South African government is saying about implementing what they set out to do?

A failure to conduct economic-impact studies when a new policy is drafted or considered for implementation is seen as a negative. For example, the National Health Insurance Bill, which proposes a fund to achieve universal health care coverage, has been published without an accompanying financing paper (ISI, 2020). On the other hand, where policies have succeeded, they are not necessarily deployed more widely or scaled up.

Broad-based black economic empowerment The broad-based black economic-empowerment (BBBEE) policy, which aims to increase the participation of black people in the management, ownership, and control of South Africa’s economy, is seen by many as a disincentive to foreign investors. Although investors express support for the BBBEE objectives, there is frustration with the way the policy has been implemented and with the codes through which compliance is measured. A study, funded by the European Union, has found that the policy, primarily effected through the BBBEE Codes of Good Practice, has become “convoluted and complex, often frustrating businesses rather than encouraging transformative practices”. The frustrations experienced in implementing BBBEE range from “too many ambiguous and often-changing rules (making reference to the Codes that have undergone multiple changes in recent years), to trying to stay focused on business imperatives while attending to the intricacies of BBBEE compliance” (Samaai-Abader, 2020).

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Identifying weaknesses In its current form, the policy has become an additional cost to industry and has also resulted in rent-seeking rather than productive business activity. There is a view that black economic empowerment has made a few politically connected people exceptionally wealthy while failing to improve income distribution for the majority of South Africans.

Education Education is one of the biggest problems in South Africa. Beset by infrastructure shortcomings, overcrowded classrooms, a lack of teacher capacity and relatively poor learning outcomes, which are exacerbated by systemic inequalities, the education system does not equip young people with the right skills to enter the labour market.

After initial improvements in learning outcomes – notably between 2003 and 2011 – gains have plateaued, as evidenced by the country’s performance in international assessments (Spaull, 2019). South Africa, for instance, underperforms in the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study and the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study.

Failure to deal decisively with education challenges will consign future generations to poverty and perpetuate the legacy of Apartheid (Spaull, 2019). A more skilled workforce will require improvements in the education system.

Fiscal crisis At the heart of South Africa’s economic woes is a fiscal crisis, with the country on the edge of a proverbial fiscal cliff. South Africa’s fiscal cliff is the point where government expenditure on social grants, compensation to civil servants and interest on government debt exceeds total government revenue (Rossouw & Joubert, 2020). Having increased too rapidly in recent years, these items now practically account for almost all government revenue.

Public-service compensation absorbed 47% of revenue in 2020/21, while debt-service costs – the fastest-rising item of government spending – consumed 19.20% of tax revenue.

(National Treasury, 2021).

Reducing the proportion of the Budget spent on salaries and debt-servicing will enable government to focus on priorities such as healthcare, education, and service delivery.

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At the heart of South Africa’s economic woes is a fiscal crisis

Identifying weaknesses With a diminishing base of 7.10-million individual taxpayers, of which less than 307 912 earn more than R1-million a year (National Treasury, 2020), personal income tax is only enough to fund about 80% of the civil servant bill and debt serving.

Incompetence and corruption limiting State capacity The political environment is not conducive to growing the economy. Political leadership in a number of government positions lacks competency. This is highlighted by the use of consultants and outsourcing rather than the building of capable and competent State machinery.

If there were a conducive political environment, incompetent government employees would leave their positions to make way for those who can do the job. Evidence emerging from the Zondo Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture points to a serious lack of competence and a high incidence of corruption at State institutions and State-owned enterprises (SoEs), including at Transnet, Eskom, Denel, the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) and law enforcement agencies (Zondo Commission, 2021a).

Institutional weakness Political risk is rising globally, particularly since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Dealing with political risk in an emerging market requires strong institutions, many of which have been significantly eroded in South Africa in the past decade. For example, failure to insulate the SABC from vested political interests has left the public broadcaster in a crippled state, hobbled by financial bankruptcy and dependent on government bailouts (Ndlovu, M, 2019).

Institutional weakness and cadre deployment enabled State capture to flourish. Had certain checks and balances been in place, many problems related to State capture may have been avoided (Zondo Commission, 2021b).

There is also concern that Parliament acts as nothing more than a rubberstamp for what comes from the executive – another example of how institutional weakness affects the country’s ability to perform. Parliament’s oversight failures have been laid bare at the Zondo Commission of Inquiry, with testimonies of how administrative proceedings were used to sidestep oversight.

Former African National Congress Member of Parliament (MP) Zukiswa Rantho testified in early 2021 about MPs being more loyal to the ruling party than doing what is right (TimesLive, 2021).

Labour and skills South Africa has a fairly sophisticated formal sector, but suffers from extensive unemployment. Only 16.40-million out of a labour force of 23.10-million have managed to

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Identifying weaknesses

find employment. The 6.70-million-strong cohort of unemployed people is compounded by a further 2.90-million who have given up looking for a job and 12.70-million who are not economically active (Stats SA, 2021).

Exacerbating unemployment is a mismatch between labour demand and supply, with the labour force retaining a large number of low and unskilled people. A nonalignment between the skills that graduates are being equipped with and those which are required by the economy is contributing to the unemployment crisis. South Africa has been suffering from a chronic shortage of skills for many years, notably in the engineering and information and communication technology fields, but government has only recently moved to plug the skills gap through importing skilled labour. Although the move to assist foreign workers with critical skills to gain work permits is welcomed, concerns have been raised about how long it took government to reach this point.

Lack of competition The economy is bedevilled by high concentration, little competition, and anticompetitive behaviour. One participant mentioned that South Africa is a country of fives: Five big banks, five big retailers and five big construction companies.

Big players have been accused of questionable collaboration. Collusion, for instance, has occurred in the construction, banking and telecommunication industries. The Competition Commission in 2013 fined 15 construction firms a collective R1.46-billion for collusive tendering (Engineering News, 2013) and in 2017 referred cases of collusion against several international banks for alleged price fixing and market allocation (Engineering News, 2017).

A lack of competition holds back innovation, keeps prices high, and denies many people access to services and opportunities to start businesses.

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Interventions for fostering growth Several sectors were identified as ripe for potential policy improvements, ranging from power utility Eskom and independent power producers, to SoEs, skills development and beneficiation of platinum-group metals (PGMs) and other minerals. Alleviating small business regulatory compliance, improving the ease of doing business, rethinking BBBEE and acknowledging the cost of crime were also mentioned.

Suggestions for addressing growth constraints in South Africa Address electricity generation

Restoring security of energy supply should be a top priority, as it cuts through every sector of society. Large-scale and sustained investment in new electricity generation capacity, particularly in renewable-energy sources, such as wind and solar, and related grid capacity, is planned in terms of the Integrated Resources Plan and other energy transition policies.

Public–private partnerships through collaboration with independent power producers (IPPs) are often associated with renewable-energy investments. However, there is a view that IPPs should also participate in the baseload electricity space. For instance, IPPs could be involved in the repurposing of State-owned power utility Eskom’s coal-fired power stations.

Resolving Eskom’s financing woes is also critical. Through Nedlac processes, suggestions have been made that national government take on some of the debt refinancing for Eskom to reduce interest payments overall, and that the Government Employees Pension Fund and other retirement savings be mobilised to support Eskom.

Build skills for the economy

South Africa’s skills development lacks clear focus. To address that, the country must decide on what skills its economy requires and home in on those before selecting another set of skills to focus on.

The capital that private companies earmark for BBBEE and tertiary education bursary schemes could be used to create a private-sector-run education fund. Such a fund will pay for qualifying students, based on merit, and for studies required to develop the skills-set needed for the economy. The impact of such a fund, over two to three decades, would be broader than that of the current BBBEE policy.

Create competition

With most subsectors of the economy dominated by one or two companies, it is difficult for small and medium-sized companies to grow and create jobs. Attention beyond that of the Competition Commission is required.

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Interventions for fostering growth Deal decisively with SoEs play a significant role in the economy and dominate some sectors, State enterprises forcing out private-sector capital. Yet, SoEs are not functioning effectively and are a drain on the fiscus. Some suggestions for dealing with SoEs include: • A ssess which SoEs should remain State-owned, based on national interest and strategic considerations, and which would better serve the community as private entities. Once SoEs have been identified for privatisation, such a process should be vigorously pursued.

• Create competition for SoEs by allowing the private sector to build and operate railway lines, ports and so forth.

•D epoliticise SoEs. • L earn from what other countries have done regarding SoEs. •S top funding serial lossmaking SoEs, unless of strategic importance and within predefined criteria, to reduce the burden on the fiscus. The recent R10.50-billion South African Airways bailout, for instance, could have been invested in a fibre network that could have had a major impact on education.

Institute labour market reforms

Inroads have been made into labour market reforms over the past couple of years and with unions weaker than they were a decade ago, it may be an opportune time to implement more labour reforms. Restraint on trade unions, specifically unions in the civil service, is required, to stop the ballooning civil servant bill and ensure fiscal soundness.

Improve local government

There is an urgent need to improve local government’s capacity, with many examples of citizens taking over services of towns. Wellfunctioning local governments will improve service delivery, create job opportunities, and reduce pressure on inflation.

Project managers are needed at local government level to increase accountability. About 1 200 applications were received for the Presidency’s technical advisory panel to support the Infrastructure Investment Plan. Those not appointed to the panel could be assigned to municipalities to strengthen their technical capabilities.

Pursue new mining opportunities

There are opportunities for new-generation minerals that can be exploited, from vanadium to copper. PGMs are also destined to play an important role in the greening of the world through green hydrogen.

South Africa should take advantage of these opportunities by an increased focus on an expanded programme for minerals exploration, as well by pursuing policies to promote minerals beneficiation. Suggestions to ensure local beneficiation include liaising with international firms that have the technological and manufacturing capabilities to ensure that plants are established locally and extending incentives for investment.

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Interventions for fostering growth Reconsider BBBEE

The BBBEE policy, although the objectives are supported, must be improved, with a greater focus on skills development and education.

Some of the suggestions include: • A bolishing the current policy and introducing a replacement programme that focuses on black economic skills transfer, or BEST. • I nstead of only doing a share ownership initiative, companies should also consider a profit-sharing initiative that employees benefit from.

For instance, 10% of profits could go to employees in a fund, where 30% is saved and the balance is available for beneficiaries to use.

Such a model will stimulate economic growth from higher spending and will increase savings.

• I ntroducing a punitive structure alongside the BBBEE framework to bar offenders who do not honour the intentions of the BBBEE Code of Good Practice, from further empowerment transactions or business dealings.

Reduce bureaucratic impediments

Structural impediments, including stifling red-tape and a highly bureaucratic environment, are making it increasingly difficult for the economy to achieve growth, with entrepreneurs and small businesses most affected.

Government has been urged to reduce the bureaucratic burden that it has placed on the economy.

The point has been made that South Africa seems to “only have bureaucratic solutions” to its problems.

Regenerate rural areas

Rural areas remain underinvested and continue to be sources of migration to overpopulated urban areas. More than 66% of the South African population live in urban settings (UN, 2018).

Rural areas and second-tier cities could be made special economic zones (SEZs) – geographically designated areas set aside for specifically targeted economic activities – with a tax subsidy to incentivise the private sector to invest in them.

Root out corruption

More urgency is needed in stamping out corruption. Those found guilty of corruption from both the public and private sectors should be jailed.

There have not been any high-profile convictions for State capture.

• T he judicial process should be reviewed to expedite the conclusion of cases and to eliminate the abuse of the system.

• T here are far too few judges. More investment is required for the hiring of additional judges to reduce backlog.

• T he cost of engaging in corruption and breaking the law should be made higher. Personal accountability is required to ensure that individuals are not protected by the institution or organisation that they represent.

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Interventions for fostering growth Sequence policies

Not everything can be tackled at once. Policies must be sequenced and a more execution-driven approach to development is needed.

The timeline of the NDP should be reassessed. Each objective of the plan must be aligned with an election cycle, so that citizenry has an opportunity to assess a government on implementing a very specific policy in its term. That may change the way citizens reward politicians for failure to implement policies.

Speed up digitisation

Digitisation holds significant potential to reshape the economy and could serve as a hub for growth and employment. Delays in laying the infrastructure and implementing reforms to take advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolutions must be tackled.

Spectrum allocation challenges also have to be addressed to tap into the benefits of high-speed broadband. South Africa needs the roll-out of 5G if it is to be able to compete in the global economy.

Transform special economic zones

Government has developed several SEZs to attract investment and arrest the premature deindustrialisation of the economy. International experience with SEZs dictates that they need to be globally competitive ‘zones of exception’.

For SEZs to perform optimally, government should ensure the necessary policy and liberalisation to allow for zones and provinces to compete.

This will facilitate that kind of competition and technology transfer that has been the underlying driver of growth in the world’s most successful economies.

More emphasis is also needed on providing reliable and cost-effective enabling infrastructure to encourage private-sector investment in SEZs.

Unlock capital

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South Africa has several development finance institutions that operate in the infrastructure field, but needs more that deal with the retail end of the economy. These for instance should focus on small and mediumsized enterprise financing or housing financing.

Conclusion South Africa needs to celebrate its successes and seek to replicate these in other areas.

Some of its successes include a vibrant democracy, a free media and free expression, an independent judiciary, a constitutionally protected South African Reserve Bank and the way inflation is contained with sound monetary policy. The turnaround of the South African Revenue Service since the State capture period is also worth nothing, allowing for improved tax collections efforts.

Another positive is the country’s demographic dividend, although opportunities may be somewhat limited by South Africa’s already having had its urban transition. Projected to 2030, South Africa could benefit from a major demographic dividend, as the proportion of working people in the total population increases. Although it should also be noted that too sharp a population growth rate without the necessary concomitant growth in GDP can result in too many people looking for jobs, which can be a risk to the economy and fiscus. The bigger pool of possible employment seekers could, however, create opportunities for new businesses.

There is also potential for increased trade with the rest of the continent through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which creates a single continental market for goods and services in Africa. AfCFTA is the world’s biggest free trade area, measured by the number of countries participating. The pact connects 1.30-billion people across 55 countries (World Bank, 2020).

AfCFTA is considered a game-changer for the continent. It will help reduce trading challenges, such as different regulations from one African country to another. By facilitating the movement of goods and services among African countries, AfCFTA will create opportunities to accelerate intra-Africa trade, grow local businesses, create jobs, and increase infrastructure development on the continent (Williams, 2019).

It has been noted that, although the Ramaphosa administration is taking measures to redress policy implementation paralysis, progress is slow. To get the economy on a sustainable growth trajectory, policy uncertainty and implementation paralysis must be addressed. Strengthening institutions is also critical going forward.

Linking the NDP to an active citizenship will also be of benefit to the country. Getting people involved in every level of society – from rural area to towns and cities, nationwide – will assist in addressing accountability failures and set the stage for sustained and inclusive economic growth.

Although South Africa is facing serious challenges there are opportunities to rejuvenate the economy and hope prevails.

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This report has been published by the Inclusive Society Institute The Inclusive Society Institute (ISI) is an autonomous and independent institution that functions separately from any other entity. It is founded for the purpose of supporting and further deepening multi-party democracy.

The ISI’s work is motivated by its desire to achieve non-racialism, non-sexism, social justice and cohesion, economic development and equality in South Africa, through a value system that embodies the social and national democratic principles associated with a developmental state. It recognises that a well-functioning democracy requires well-functioning political formations that are suitably equipped and capacitated. It further acknowledges that South Africa is inextricably linked to the ever transforming and interdependent global world, which necessitates international and multilateral cooperation. As such, the ISI also seeks to achieve its ideals at a global level through cooperation with like-minded parties and organs of civil society who share its basic values.

In South Africa, ISI’s ideological positioning is aligned with that of the current ruling party and others in broader society with similar ideals. www.inclusivesociety.org.za