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2016 Annual Review

The leading authority on global security: facts, analysis, influence


The International Institute for Strategic Studies promotes the development of sound policies that further global peace and security, and maintain civilised international relations

An independent source of facts An objective provider of analysis An influential global actor

‘The IISS always proves itself a strategic asset when it’s time for rigorous thinking’ US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, April 2017


Contents Introduction

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Message from the Chair of Trustees

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Message from the Director-General and Chief Executive

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IISS Governance

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IISS Experts

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2016 in Numbers

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Facts

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The Military Balance 8 Survival and Strategic Comments 9

Analysis

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Research Programmes 10 Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Transatlantic & Global Order 11 Defence & Conflict, Security & Development and Nuclear Proliferation & Cyber Security 12 Strategic Dossiers

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Influence

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Dialogues and Conferences 14 Expert Analysis

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Global Reach

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Speakers Hosted by the IISS in 2016 17 International Offices

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Future Leaders

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IISS 60th Anniversary

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Contact Us

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Introduction Message from the Chair of Trustees The last year has seen the IISS continue to play a vital role in shaping the international debate on international security. From the Institute’s genesis in the Cold War, through the developments of the 1980s and 1990s, and on into the twenty-first century, the IISS has remained the leading think tank on global security, while developing that role over the last 15 years into becoming an influential global strategic actor which brings governments together in public and private settings. The current sense of international insecurity has reinforced the need for clear heads, integrity and an informed impartial voice. With a foundation of independent research and expertise, the IISS has met this need, informing and helping governments, policymakers and businesses identify strategic challenges and assess their best response in today’s changing world. This review highlights how the IISS identifies new issues and contributes to strategic debate and effective action through carefully sourced facts, objective analysis and global convening power. Fleur de Villiers Chair of Trustees

Message from the Director-General and Chief Executive We live in an age where we have become used to thinking and acting tactically, but in a turbulent 2016 when the West’s rules-based order was increasingly challenged, the IISS helped governments, industry, and global opinion formers to think and act strategically. At the IISS we have frontline expertise unrivalled among Western think tanks. When matched with the Institute’s pedigree and independence, this combination enables IISS experts to apply a wide-ranging approach to fact-based impartial analysis, and develop a deep understanding of increasingly complex environments. However, we are not content to be only expert analysts: we are also expert influencers and actors. Having framed the intellectual debate, we then convene and facilitate the ensuing discussion. To this end, in 2016 we ran over 160 events across ten countries, enhancing the broader understanding of key global and strategic issues, and informing policies and decisions towards greater international security. This review shines a light on a few areas of recent IISS activity. That said, much of our work is necessarily out of the spotlight, where we use our independent position and commitment to conflict resolution to encourage and enable the informed, quiet diplomacy for which the IISS has built a world-leading reputation. Dr John Chipman Director-General and Chief Executive 4


Introduction

IISS Governance The IISS is both a registered UK charity and a private company limited by guarantee. The Institute is governed by a Memorandum and Articles of Association lodged with the Registrar of Companies and the Charity Commissioners for England and Wales, and is managed by a Board of Trustees who act as guarantors of the Institute’s independence and impartiality. The Director-General and Chief Executive manages the day-to-day running of the Institute, and reports to the Trustees. The IISS global membership of individuals, companies and non-profit organisations contributes to the Institute’s intellectual life, but has no role in the Institute’s governance as the independence and freedom of thought and action of the IISS is fully guaranteed by the Board of Trustees. The Trustees appoint the members of the IISS Council, which acts as the Institute’s intellectual-advisory body.

Trustees Fleur de Villiers (Chair) Former journalist and public-affairs expert Chris Jones Former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of J Walter Thompson Co

François Heisbourg Chairman of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy Sophie-Caroline de Margerie Judge at the Conseil d’État, France

Risto Penttilä CEO and President of the Finland Chamber of Commerce

Lord Powell of Bayswater Former Private Secretary and adviser on foreign affairs and defence to Margaret Thatcher

Bill Emmott Former Editor-in-Chief at The Economist

Matt Symonds Indepedent strategic adviser to financial-services companies

Thomas Seaman (Honorary Treasurer) Fellow of All Souls College, University of Oxford Nigel Newton Founder and Chief Executive of Bloomsbury Publishing Catherine Roe Former Director of the Said Foundation

The Council François Heisbourg (Chair) Chairman of Geneva Centre for Security Policy Fleur de Villiers Former journalist and public-affairs expert Field Marshal The Lord Guthrie of Craigiebank Former Chief of the Defence Staff, United Kingdom Eric X. Li Founder and Managing Director, Chengwei Capital Moeletsi Mbeki Deputy Chairperson, South African Institute for International Affairs Ambassador Andrés Rozental President, Rozental & Asociados Grace Reksten Skaugen Chair, Norwegian Institute of Directors; Deputy Chair, Statoil Amos Yadlin Director of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies

Carl Bildt Former Prime Minister of Sweden Karl Eikenberry Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Michael Fullilove Executive Director, Lowy Institute for International Policy Ellen Laipson Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus, Henry L Stimson Center

Marillyn A. Hewson Chairman, President and CEO of Lockheed Martin Chung Min Lee Professor of International Relations, Yonsei University Jean-Claude Mallet Special Adviser to the Defence Minister, Ministry of Defence, France Lord Robertson of Port Ellen Former Secretary-General of NATO

Michael Rich President and CEO of the RAND Corporation

Thomas Seaman Fellow of All Souls College, University of Oxford

Igor Yurgens Chairman of the Management Board of the Institute of Contemporary Development

Hew Strachan Emeritus Fellow, All Souls College, University of Oxford

Joanne de Asis Founder and Chairperson of Asia Pacific Capital Partners Bill Emmott Former Editor-in-Chief at The Economist

Badr H Jafar CEO of Crescent Enterprises, Sharjah, UAE Bilahari Kausikan Ambassador-at-Large, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore

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Introduction

‘The IISS, with its world-class analysts drawn from around the world, is a great resource to help businesses with global interests conduct their geopolitical due diligence’ Kasper Rorsted, CEO of adidas

IISS Experts Recognised for their independent, impartial and rigorous analysis, IISS experts are drawn from an international pool and include established world-class strategists from the top tiers of governments, academia, the media and the military.

Research Directors, Senior Fellows, Research Fellows and Consulting Fellows Mark Fitzpatrick Executive Director, IISS–Americas

Tim Huxley Executive Director, IISS–Asia

Bastian Giegerich Director of Defence and Military Analysis

Nigel Inkster Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security

Alia Moubayed Director of Geo-economics and Strategy

Nicholas Redman Director of Editorial; Editor, Strategic Survey and Adelphi Books

Dana Allin Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Editor of Survival

Douglas Barrie Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace

Ben Barry Senior Fellow for Land Warfare

Nick Childs Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security

John Chipman Director-General and Chief Executive Sir John Jenkins Executive Director, IISS–Middle East

William Choong Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security James Hackett Senior Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis; Editor of The Military Balance Alexander Neill Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security Jonathan Stevenson Senior Fellow for US Defence; Editor of Strategic Comments

Virginia Comolli Senior Fellow for Security and Development Emile Hokayem Senior Fellow for Middle East Security

Nelly Lahoud Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, IISS–Middle East

Pierre Noel Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury Senior Fellow for South Asia

Lucie Beraud-Sudreau Research Fellow for Defence Economics and Procurement

Clement Therme Research Fellow for Iran

Anastasia Voronkova Research Fellow for Armed Conflict; Editor, The Armed Conflict Survey

Elisabeth Marteu Consulting Senior Fellow for Middle East Politics

Fabrice Pothier Consulting Senior Fellow for Defence Policy and Strategy

Rafal Rohozinski Consulting Senior Fellow, Future Conflict and Cyber Security

Wenguang Shao Consulting Senior Fellow for China and International Relations

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Michael Elleman Senior Fellow for Missile Defence

Matthew Harries Managing Editor of Survival; Research Fellow for Transatlantic Affairs Toby Dodge Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Sarah Raine Consulting Senior Fellow for Geopolitics and Strategy Eneken Tikk-Ringas Consulting Senior Fellow for the Future Conflict and Cyber Security Programme


Introduction

2016 in Numbers

1958 in London, the IISS now has 145 staff of 29 nationalities across 4 offices and earned ÂŁ17,486,000 in 2016. Founded in

INCOME BY CATEGORY Memberships and Partnerships 11%

Other 1%

MEMBERS

Think Tanks 9%

Technology and IT 1%

Donations 14%

Aerospace and Defence 8% Armed Forces and Police 4% Banking and Finance 5%

Commercial Trading Income 5%

Publications 5%

Investment Income 1%

Public Sector 25%

Education 13%

Research Programmes 18%

Dialogues 31%

Professional Services and Consultancy 3%

Embassy and Diplomatic Services 18%

Media 7% Conferences and Lecture Series 14%

2,167 global expert members in 80 countries.

A network of

General Energy, Metals and Mining 4% Industry 3%

165 corporate members spanning 12 sectors.

CONVENING POWER

167 events in 10 countries with 7,245 participants. PUBLICATIONS

59 Publications produced and disseminated to more than 90 countries, with over 250 online publications.

2 Dialogues attracting 1,064 delegates, including 40 ministers, from 53 countries to take part in 55 hours of security debate and over

159 bilateral meetings. 7


Facts ‘Because military affairs are inevitably clouded in fog, the IISS Military Balance is an essential companion for those who seek to understand’ Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, former UK defence secretary and secretary-general of NATO

The foundation of the IISS’s world-class research programmes is the collation and distribution of facts. Since 1958, The Military Balance has been regarded globally as the best source of reliable data on military capabilities, and in more recent years the IISS has added The Armed Conflict Survey and Strategic Comments to its industry-leading print and online reference publications. These sources are frequently cited by governments, the corporate sector, experts and journalists, all of whom value the authoritative facts and informed, impartial context they provide.

The Military Balance The Military Balance is the most definitive annual assessment available of the military capabilities of 171 countries. Detailed entries list each country’s military forces, personnel numbers, equipment inventories, cyber capabilities and defenceeconomic data. Regional and country sections assess the principal factors driving defence policy, as well as military activity and procurement strategies. The 2017 edition includes detailed assessments of military modernisation and organisational reform in China and Russia, and contains new analysis of global changes in the defenceindustrial landscape. Military Balance+ is a new online database version of the book. This pioneering resource heralds a step change in the ability of users to customise, view, compare and download data instantly, anywhere, anytime, enabling those in government, the armed forces and the private sector, as well as academia and the media, to make faster and betterinformed decisions. 8


Facts

‘In a world of complex security challenges the need for serious, thoughtful analysis is greater than ever. Survival’s combination of elegant writing and rigorous scholarship from the world’s top experts makes it essential reading for both practitioners and academics.’ Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman

Survival Since the Institute’s founding, our journal Survival has been a forum for some of the world’s most influential analysis in international affairs. Today its broad thematic scope ranges from the future of NATO’s deterrence posture, to the origins of the Islamic State and the implications of climate change for international security. Survival’s authors include senior officials, distinguished academics and the world’s brightest young foreign-policy analysts. In 2016, Survival published its most-read article on record: an original study of encryption policy and the so-called ‘dark net’ by Thomas Rid and Daniel Moore, currently at more than 55,000 online downloads. The journal also hosted a high-profile series of articles examining the potential effects of Brexit, including essays from Lawrence Freedman, François Heisbourg and Nigel Inkster. Among other notable contributors in 2016 were Ashton Carter, Kori Schake and Anatol Lieven.

‘Strategic Comments offers the rarest but most valuable of qualities in our overloaded age – brevity and cogency’ Jim Hoagland, Washington Post

Strategic Comments Strategic Comments is the Institute’s email digest of facts and analysis of current international security and politico-military issues. Strategic Comments articles offer succinct, relevant and cogent insights of consistent authority to a core readership of policymakers, journalists, business executives and foreignaffairs analysts. Since its foundation in 1995, Strategic Comments has harnessed the considerable expertise of the Institute’s research staff and members to ensure its audience remains on top of the details that enable good strategic planning and decision-making in increasingly complex security and geoeconomic environments.

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Analysis ‘Governments and companies around the world benefit hugely from the independent thinking the IISS offers’ Toomas Hendrik Ilves, then-president of Estonia The IISS has the best in-region teams of analysts of any Western-based think tank. This unique advantage, combined with absolute independence, ensures the IISS is able to fulfil its purpose of advancing a wider understanding of global security, geo-economics and geopolitics. As a global institute with a large international staff, and by engaging with local networks, the IISS pursues a comprehensive research programme, which is given expression and disseminated to a worldwide audience through a range of publications, online databases, conferences, lectures and working groups. In 2016 the Institute produced 59 publications and over 240 online briefings, which were distributed to governments, experts, opinion formers and policymakers across 90 countries in hardcopy, and globally in electronic formats. The research programme covers thirteen research themes, each of which contains a number of strands, a select few of which are highlighted here and explored in more detail on the following pages:

Selected Research Themes and Strands Armed Conflict, including those involving state and non-state armed groups Future Conflict and Cyber Security, from military cyber capabilities to international cyber governance Defence and Military Analysis, of state forces and defence economics to military innovation Economic and Energy Security, with specialisms in Middle Eastern and Far Eastern energy strategies Geo-economics and Strategy, for governments and businesses with global interests Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy, including global responses to the Iranian and North Korean threats Security and Development, encompassing urban security, informal conflict and security development European Security, including defence economics, policies and capabilities Asia-Pacific, covering China’s strategic arrival, and Southeast Asian political and foreign policy Middle East, including the region’s role in geopolitics, security, terrorism and jihadism Russia and Eurasia, from the Ukraine crisis and the ex-Soviet states to Russian policies in the Asia-Pacific South Asia, including Pakistan’s and India’s foreign and security policies, and Pakistan’s relations with China Transatlantic Affairs, covering the security implications of US domestic, foreign and security policies.

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Analysis

‘We value our IISS membership; the Institute’s analytical rigour and international perspective help us to conduct geopolitical due diligence and assess opportunities and risks globally’ Mitsubishi Corporation

Middle East The IISS Middle East research programmes are led from the IISS–Middle East office in Bahrain, with additional experts based in London and Washington. All of these experts examine the diverse issues central to the security and stability of the region. Key areas of research include the causes and international effects of the ongoing conflict in Syria, Islamic radicalism, the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL), Iran’s domestic politics and its evolving strategic intent, the dynamics undermining political stability in Iraq and Egypt, the relationship of the region to geo-economics, and the security policies of the Gulf Cooperation Council states.

Asia-Pacific The Asia-Pacific research programmes, led by the IISS–Asia office in Singapore, focus on the foreign and security policies of the Asia-Pacific states, and in particular the ramifications for the region of China’s arrival as a proactive global and regional strategic actor, alongside Japan’s increasingly extrovert security posture, the developments on the Korean Peninsula, and the growing military capabilities of states across the region. The impact of the IISS is evident in the almost-daily meetings with senior representatives of governments and businesses, the media and other research institutes, who visit the IISS–Asia office for consultations and briefings.

Transatlantic Affairs The transatlantic programme cuts across research themes to draw on an international cast of IISS experts who explore the causes and implications of political and policy changes in the US and Europe. In 2016 the Institute received international press coverage and praise for its analyses of the apparent demise of the Western liberal order and emergence of stronger nationalist attitudes. In 2017 the programme is looking beyond the Western Hemisphere with a major new project investigating the global consequences for geopolitics and security of the emerging ‘new cold wars’ in Europe, East Asia and the Middle East, as well as their various spillovers, including nuclear proliferation, energy conflict, regional proxy wars, terrorism, refugee flows and economic crises. 11


Analysis

‘Like the beam of a car’s headlight into the fog’ Lord Howell, Chairman of the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations, characterising Mark Fitzpatrick’s evidence on Iran

Defence & Conflict The Defence and Military Analysis team at the Institute produce world-leading work tracking and examining global shifts in military power, as demonstrated through defence spending, technology, capability, industrial exports and their combined impact on defence policy and the future of conflict. The technological playing field is becoming more level as an increasing number of state and non-state actors gain access to advanced military capability. Once taken for granted, Western technological superiority is being challenged. The IISS has pointed to capability areas, particularly in the air domain, in which China appears to be reaching near-parity with the West.

Security & Development The IISS recognises that for governments and global organisations, policy is shaped by the interplay between security, development, energy and the global economy. The IISS addresses this with cross-cutting, policy-relevant research into urban armed violence, geo-economics, and energy and security policies. By engaging with local authorities and international organisations, IISS experts provide incisive analysis to support governments and businesses as they develop and deploy policy and business strategies. In 2016 the IISS helped the strategic community understand the changing relationships between global financial and energy markets, the rise of Asia, and international security, specifically in an urban context.

Nuclear Proliferation & Cyber Security The IISS is the ‘go-to’ source for policymakers and businesses seeking impartial expertise on the strategic challenges of nuclear proliferation and cyber security. IISS experts buttress decision-makers’ understanding of these issues and their influence on the conduct of statecraft and the character of conflict. Through 2016, IISS experts led a government-funded China–UK Cyber Security Dialogue, analysed cyber deterrence methodologies, and examined military cyber capabilities, while IISS nuclear non-proliferation specialists led para-diplomatic meetings on Iran with the negotiating parties and Gulf Arab states, and briefed the US State Department, the UN, the EU and businesses as they tackled the issue of non-proliferation in North Korea. 12


Analysis

‘A timely, balanced contribution that widens our understanding of the domain and its origins – and of the possible futures of political and strategic affairs’ Marina Kaljurand, then-minister of foreign affairs of Estonia, introducing the Evolution of the Cyber Domain dossier

Strategic Dossiers IISS Strategic Dossiers harness the Institute’s technical expertise and independent research position to present an impartial ‘deep dive’ into some of the strategic questions facing regional and global players. Recent dossiers have explored the cyber domain, nuclear black markets, Iran’s weapons programme, Asia-Pacific geopolitics and Gulf missile defence. Meanwhile, older dossiers are now having impact, most notably in 2016 with the end of the civil war in Colombia.

The FARC Files: Venezuela, Ecuador and the Secret Archive of ‘Raúl Reyes’ (2011) Impact can sometimes be delayed. In 2008 around 1.6 million pieces of captured rebel information were given by the Colombian government to the IISS to analyse and publish. In 2011 the IISS published a dossier offering unique insights into the thinking, evolution and funding of FARC. A short time later, FARC were encouraged by Venezuela and Ecuador to join peace negotiations, and in 2016 the 52-year-old civil war ended. This was due in a small, but very significant part, to the role played by IISS independent analysis.

Evolution of the Cyber Domain: The Implications for National and Global Security (2015) For many governments and countries, the possession and control of advanced technology and services, as well as information, has become a question of survival and development. Yet cyberspace is difficult to separate into a distinct area of interests and affairs that can be governed in accordance with widely accepted norms. This dossier explores the development of the cyber domain from the 1960s and its potential military and intelligence applications, examining attempts to generate new rules for international information security.

Missile-Defence Cooperation in the Gulf (2016) Iran’s missile capabilities pose a recognised threat to the security of Gulf Arab countries. To date, individual states have addressed this threat by procuring missile-defence technology. Analysing their approach within the broader evolution of security structures in the region, this dossier concludes that it would be more effective and strategically efficient for Gulf Cooperation Council members to pool their resources, especially radars and other missile-defence sensors. This dossier is a valuable resource for all those seeking to understand the ‘security complex’ that encompasses all states in the Gulf.

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Influence ‘Over the 15 years since it was established, the Shangri-La Dialogue has become the Asia-Pacific’s leading security dialogue, bringing together thought leaders from across government, business and civil society’ Malcolm Turnbull, Prime Minister of Australia, January 2017

Dialogues and Conferences The IISS believes that research and analysis should be complemented by intelligent action. As a result of acting as well as thinking, the IISS has developed unrivalled convening power, making it a key actor in the global strategic debate. In 2016 the IISS convened 167 events in ten countries. Involving 7,245 attendees, these events enabled governments, the private sector and the international expert and opinion-forming community to have private and public discussions about security, defence, geo-economics and conflict resolution to engender greater understanding of international security.

The IISS Dialogues In 2002 the IISS, recognising the need for an international-security forum in the Asia-Pacific, launched the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Similarly, in 2004 the IISS saw the opportunity to support the Middle East security debate, and launched the IISS Manama Dialogue in the Kingdom of Bahrain. These two security summits are the most important regular gatherings of defence ministers, military

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chiefs and other leading members of regional national-security establishments, with representation from other countries with regional interests. Their significance is demonstrated by the more than 1,000 delegates from 70 countries, including 40 defence ministers, who attended in 2016. The Dialogues, whose intellectual content is framed by IISS research and analysis, bring ever greater transparency to the international defence and security debate by provoking reasoned discussion, giving voice to international stakeholders in security, and inspiring not just regional but inter-regional defence diplomacy.

The South Asia Security Conference The 10th South Asia Security Conference in Oman demonstrated the unique convening power of the IISS. For the first time, intelligence chiefs and topranking intelligence officials from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan spoke alongside one another in a discussion on efforts to counter the Islamic State in South Asia. The conference was also attended by senior Indian and Pakistani policymakers, as well as senior Afghan, UK and US officials, Chinese diplomats and Iranian academics.


Influence

‘Thanks to your workshop, the assembled community of renowned experts was able to engage in stimulating and lively debates, providing us with valuable insights and ideas for the preparation of our White Paper’ German Minister of Defence, Ursula von der Leyen

Expert Analysis The IISS is a vital source of independent facts and analysis for experts and commentators in the public and private sectors. The relevance and influence of IISS research can be seen in frequent media citations, and is recognised by policymakers, thought leaders and heads of businesses. The annual Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment informs and guides governments and corporate leaders attending the Shangri-La Dialogue by providing them with invaluable, up-to-date and impartial analysis of the region, so that they can be accurate and strategic in their words and actions. In September 2016 Dr John Chipman’s article on ‘Why Your Company Needs a Foreign Policy’ in the Harvard Business Review challenged businesses with global interests to think about their geoeconomic and geopolitical due diligence.

Public Sector Ministries and governments engage with the IISS for independent expert advice delivered through briefings, workshops or papers. During 2016 the IISS was commissioned by: US Departments of State and Defence, National Security

Council, Congress and NAVCENT; NATO; EU Parliament; UK Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence; French, Austrian and German Ministries of Defence; European External Action Service; Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs; World Bank; and representatives of the Chinese, Pakistani, Indian, Australian, Bahraini, Saudi Arabian and UAE governments.

Private Sector and Media The IISS provides briefings and advisory services to multinational corporations on topics ranging from US foreign policy to future cyber risks. Through this work, the IISS enables better decision-making to build more secure societies, while the corporate partners benefit from in-depth discussions with world-leading experts. In the last year, the IISS provided services to, amongst others: Boeing, Mizuho Bank, Mitsubishi, Statoil, Rio Tinto, BAE Systems, BP, Henkel, Shell, Temasek International and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation. The IISS also receives regular, worldwide media coverage: the Institute is cited, on average, every two days in mainstream UK and international newspapers, while IISS experts are interviewed weekly for broadcasts by organisations such as the BBC and Sky.

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Influence

‘The IISS plays an invaluable role in bringing together experts from many different countries for research and dialogue on issues which are of vital importance for international peace and security’ Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary-General

Global Reach The IISS’s convening power and role in framing discussions and providing the intellectual context for geopolitical and security discussion is recognised and valued by global organisations and regional institutions that wish to engage in an informed debate. Additionally, the IISS levers its convening power and draws on its own network and ecosystem to bring together decisionmakers and influencers to explore constructive proposals for improving the defence and security environment.

EU Non-Proliferation Summit The IISS convenes the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference in Brussels. This gathering, the largest in Europe, brings together 300 European and global non-proliferation, disarmament and deterrence experts to exchange views on major strategic issues and security developments as well as recommend solutions. The five-year series of conferences clarified and promoted EU policy, and built a unique global strategic network of academic, government and civilian specialists.

NATO Transformation Seminar NATO faces a set of security challenges that are unprecedented in their complexity and potential gravity. The IISS was selected as the partner for NATO’s 2017 Transformation Seminar, with the role of organising the event, framing and shaping the debate, and offering intellectual guidance to the gathered NATO leadership, thought leaders, academics and industry representatives as they discussed contemporary and future strategic challenges and transformation initiatives.

Fullerton Lectures The IISS Fullerton Lecture series brings together major figures in AsiaPacific and international affairs to speak in Singapore. The series started in 2012, when former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon delivered the first Fullerton Lecture, and rapidly established itself as the best lecture series in the Asia-Pacific, attracting presidents, prime ministers, cabinet ministers, corporate leaders and other decisionmakers prominent in regional and international politics and economics. The spirit and purpose of this distinguished lecture series is to inspire informed and intelligent debate, in Singapore and beyond, on matters of international importance. 16


Influence

Speakers Hosted by the IISS in 2016 President of Estonia Prime Minister of Singapore Prime Minister of Norway Prime Minister of Thailand Former Prime Minister of Australia Former Prime Minister of Syria Minister of Defence for Canada Minister of Defence for France Minister of Defence for Germany Minister of Defence for India Minister of Defence for Indonesia Minister of Defence for Japan Minister of Defence for Malaysia Minister of Defence for the Republic of Korea Minister for Defence for Singapore Secretary of State for Defence of the UK Secretary of Defence for the US Secretary General, The Commonwealth of Nations Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf Secretary General, League of Arab States Secretary General of ASEAN Director General, United Nations Office, Geneva Director, Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime Executive Director, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Australia Director, Centre for International Law, National University of Singapore Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia Director-General, International Policy Bureau, Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea Chairman, Institute of Contemporary Development, Russia Vice Chairman, China Institute for International Strategic Studies Deputy Director, Strategic Research Institute, People’s Liberation Army, China

Foreign Minister of Australia Foreign Minister of Bahrain Foreign Minister of Egypt Foreign Secretary of India Foreign Minister of Japan Foreign Secretary of the UK Chief of Defence Forces, Malaysia Chief of Defence Force, Singapore Chief of the Defence Staff, UK Commander, US Central Command Commander, US Naval Forces Central Command Secretary of the US Air Force Former Commander-in-Chief, Strategic Forces Command, India CEO, Cyber Security Agency, Singapore Joint Secretary, Policy Planning and Cyber, India Deputy Director-General, Bureau of Cybersecurity, China Former National Intelligence Officer for Cyber Issues, US Former Director of the CIA, US Cyber Fellow, West Point, US Former Special Secretary in the Research and Analysis Wing, India Director of Research, Cyber Policy Institute, Estonia Chair, Joint Intelligence Committee, UK Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee, National People’s Congress of China Attorney General, UK Chairwoman, Lockheed Martin Corporation Director, K2 Intelligence Chief Economist, Bahrain Economic Development Board Chairman, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council Chairman, Hashoo Group Executive Chairman, Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd

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International Offices

‘I relished the opportunity to engage with your strategic thinkers because it allowed me to discuss thorny international issues with experts who have invested considerable time and effort to understand the challenges threatening global security’ First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Sir Philip Jones

London Headquarters Located midway between the Houses of Parliament and the financial heart of the City of London, Arundel House is the international headquarters of the IISS. Housing the majority of research and operational staff, the London office acts as the central coordinator for all IISS activity globally, and the main venue for UK events. Alongside wide-ranging research activity, the office hosts over 100 events each year for IISS members and the public. Events showcase IISS experts and their current research, and also provide a platform for debate and discussion with visiting policymakers, researchers and business leaders. Arundel House is also home to the IISS publications, including The Military Balance and the new online Military Balance+, Survival, The Armed Conflict Survey, the Adelphi book series and Strategic Survey.

IISS–Americas The Washington DC-based office of the IISS serves as the hub through which policymaking communities, NGOs and corporations based in the Americas connect with and benefit from the Institute’s world-leading research, expert analysis and international convening power. The Institute’s non-partisan approach and global reach enables the Washington office to act as a leading convener of US-based diplomatic and policymaking communities, scholars, business representatives and military personnel, as well as visiting international leaders. These diverse groups are brought together through a series of discussion meetings, publication launches and special events in Washington DC, New York and, increasingly, on the West Coast to consider and share views on pressing international security issues and support more informed policymaking. The IISS–Americas is registered as a 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organisation. 18


International Offices

‘There is a critical demand in our world and our societies to create more opportunities for dialogue in order to prevent conflict ... The Shangri-La Dialogue is helping make this happen because everyone in the community is here’ Then French minister of defence, Jean-Yves Le Drian

IISS–Asia Since 2001, IISS–Asia has led the Institute’s research programme for the Asia-Pacific, a region which, despite its overall dynamism and growing prosperity, has faced substantial and diverse security challenges. Recognising these challenges and the need for a forum for defence diplomacy, the IISS convened in 2002 the Asia Security Summit, also known as the Shangri-La Dialogue. This is now a key feature in the calendars of defence ministers, military chiefs and heads of intelligence. Alongside the Dialogue, the office runs seminar and lecture series for local defence attachés, IISS members and business leaders, and the Fullerton Forum, the sherpa meeting for the Dialogue. Research conducted at IISS–Asia is concerned with the Asia-Pacific and its wider strategic and security relationships, including the parallels with the Middle East in areas such as proliferation challenges and the maritime dimensions of energy security. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (Asia) Ltd is a company limited by guarantee and a registered charity in the Republic of Singapore.

IISS–Middle East The IISS–Middle East office in Bahrain has served as the centre for the Institute’s Middle East and North Africa programme since its opening in 2010. Growing out of the success of the IISS Manama Dialogue, the office provides independent, high-quality research and analysis, as well as candid discussions with visiting dignitaries, thinkers and business leaders. In a region with vital strategic and geo-economic influence, it was clear that a security forum similar to that in Singapore would be of great benefit. In 2004, with support from the Kingdom of Bahrain, the IISS launched the Middle East Security Summit, known as the Manama Dialogue. In the years since its launch, the Dialogue has become the most important gathering of Middle Eastern defence ministers and military chiefs. It is now a fundamental pillar of regional security diplomacy. In recent years, the office has launched the Bahrain Global Forum, which explores more closely the relationship between economics and security, a timely issue both for today and the coming years. 19


Future Leaders ‘The SEAYLP program serves as an indispensable platform for crafting a new paradigm for understanding, shaping and steering an inclusive and stable security architecture in the world’s most consequential and volatile region’ Richard Javad Heydarian, Philippine academic and 2016 SEAYLP delegate Alongside shaping the defence discussion between governments, the IISS is also shaping future leaders and analysts. The Institute works with partners to bring young talent together with outside experts to engage in the mainstream of the debate around global security, and to learn the skills of defence and security analysis. Within the IISS, there is a thriving intern programme across the research and operational disciplines, and a proactive approach to developing and challenging our younger staff members to expand their skills.

Southeast Asian Young Leaders The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ programme (SEAYLP) brought together 43 young people from business, government, law, journalism and academic backgrounds in a high-level debate at the Shangri-La Dialogue to explore the complex and rapidly evolving strategic challenges faced by the Asia-Pacific region. The young delegates, representing all ten Southeast Asian countries, played a full part in the Dialogue’s plenary and special sessions, and joined dinners and other special social events with global decisionmakers including: Singapore’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, the US Secretary of Defense, the Commander of US Pacific Command and the British Defence Secretary.

NATO Young Professionals Working with NATO’s Allied Command Transformation (ACT), the IISS brought together 50 young security and defence professionals from across the Alliance for a Young Professionals Day in Budapest, Hungary. The event connected future leaders with current senior decision-makers in the security and defence establishment, helping to provide new perspectives and shape the debate of the 2017 NATO Transformation Seminar.

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Future Leaders

IISS Staff Development ‘The privilege of significant responsibility as a young staff member has defined my time at IISS and accelerated my professional development’ Emily Werk, Special Assistant to the Executive Director IISS-Americas

Emily Werk – The Experience of a Young Professional at the IISS ‘The IISS has given me the ideal jump-start to my professional career. My role has great diversity, providing opportunities and responsibility across research, events management and office administration. Young staff members like myself are encouraged to participate intellectually, writing IISS blogs and engaging with leading scholars and highranking government officials at IISS events. We are given autonomy and encouraged to lead on significant tasks, in my case coordinating the 200-strong US government delegations to the Institute’s international Dialogues in Singapore and Bahrain. This confidence in junior staff members generates a collaborative atmosphere and positive work environment, manifested in successful events and research projects, and good friendships.’

Intern Programme As well as tomorrow’s statesmen, the IISS is also developing future researchers and thinkers with a vibrant internship programme in all of the Institute’s offices. Interns support IISS research and operational staff across the full range of the Institute’s activity, from research into nuclear non-proliferation and arms control, to aiding the team preparing the IISS flagship publication The Military Balance, and helping the conference and events team deliver high-profile international Dialogues. During 2016, 42 young people spent between two and six weeks supporting and learning from IISS senior fellows and analysts as they honed their research and workplace skills within a leading global think tank.

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IISS 60th Anniversary

60th Anniversary Capital Appeal The IISS benefits from a wide range of transactional and philanthropic support from individuals, corporates, governments and foundations. This diversity enables the IISS Trustees to guarantee the Institute’s independence of thought and action, while also ensuring the resilience of the organisation to fluctuations in the local and global economic environment. The IISS will celebrate its 60th Anniversary in 2018, providing an ideal opportunity to reinvigorate the Institute’s engagement with its supporters and broaden this into the widest market of potential benefactors. Through a fundraising campaign, the IISS will reinforce its position as the global leader in strategic studies for the twenty-first century, and solidify the impartial and expert foundations on which it has built its contribution to international strategic debate and conflict resolution since 1958. The Capital Appeal has three core objectives: 1. To strengthen the financial independence of the IISS. 2. To safeguard key research programmes and positions at the Institute. 3. To invest in the physical infrastructure of the Institute’s headquarters.

Strengthen IISS Financial Independence The IISS continually works to broaden and deepen funding streams and thereby strengthen its independence. Only with independence can the IISS provide and disseminate rigorous, impartial analysis and act as a trusted convenor for paradiplomatic activity and defence diplomacy to the benefit of the global community.

Safeguard Key Research Programmes and Positions at the Institute Behind the prestigious publications and high-profile Dialogues of the IISS are world-class experts and research programmes. The Capital Appeal aims to secure funding or endowment for these programmes and positions, and, in so doing, ensure that the IISS can continue to provide facts, analysis and influence in both popular and less public subject areas.

Restore and Rejuvenate the Institute’s Headquarters The IISS is planning to invest in Arundel House to become the headquarters for the twenty-first-century strategic security debate. Recognising the changing nature of international security, the IISS is looking to create a working environment for its experts that facilitates cross-cutting, policy-relevant research that reflects and anticipates the growing complexities of global security challenges. As Arundel House is wholly owned by the IISS, any improvement to Arundel House ultimately also helps to ensure the financial security of the IISS in the future.

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Contact Us We are always keen to hear from people in government, industry, the expert and opinion forming community and interested individuals who would like to know more about our research and activities. Please contact us using the details below.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies Arundel House 6 Temple Place London WC2R 2PG Tel: +44 (0) 207 379 7676 Email: iiss@iiss.org

IISS–Asia 9 Raffles Place #51-01 Republic Plaza Singapore 048619 Tel: +65 6499 0055 Email: Asia@iiss.org

2121 K Street NW Suite 801 Washington DC 20037 Tel: +1 202 659 1490 Email: IISS-Americas@iiss.org

membership@iiss.org

For corporate membership: corporate@iiss.org

For the research team: IISS–Middle East

IISS–Americas

For individual membership:

14th Floor, GBCorp Tower Bahrain Financial Harbour  Building 1411  Road 4626  Manama 346  Kingdom of Bahrain Tel: +973 1718 1155 Email: IISS-middleeast@iiss.org

research@iiss.org

For IISS Consulting: consulting@iiss.org

Publications enquiries: publishing@iiss.org

For press enquiries: press@iiss.org

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‘The IISS is lean and disciplined, canny and influential, and, at crucial moments, critically effective’ Ford Foundation

IISS 2016 Annual Review  

The International Institute for Strategic Studies 2016 Annual Review

IISS 2016 Annual Review  

The International Institute for Strategic Studies 2016 Annual Review