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Latin America/Caribbean and Asia/Pacific Economics and Business Association An initiative of the Inter-American Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank Institute

Third LAEBA Annual Meeting Seoul, South Korea – November 16, 2006

Meeting the MDG Water Taraget in Asia: The role of regional co-operation

P. B. Anand – Bradford Centre for International Development – University of Bradford

Sponsored by  Inter­American Development Bank  Integration and Trade Sector  Institute for the Integration of Latin  American and the Caribbean (INTAL) 


LAEBA 2006 Third Annual Meeting: November 2006: Seoul

Meeting the MDG Water Target in Asia: The Role of regional co-operation Anand Prathivadi Bhayankaram University of Bradford The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.


The context „

Worldwide „ Without access to water

1.1 billion people „ Without access to sanitation 2.6 billion people „

In Asia „ Without access to water 670 million people „ Without access to sanitation

~ 2 billion people


MDG target „

Target 10:Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation


MDG target „

„

Target 10:Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without improved access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation Worldwide „

Proportion of population with access to water increased „ From 77 per cent in 1990 to 83 per cent in 2002

„

Proportion of population with access to sanitation increased „ From

49 per cent in 1990 to 58 per cent in 2002


Does it matter? „

Potential impact of improving water and sanitation on „ „ „ „ „

„

Potential benefits of water and sanitation far exceed the costs „

„ „

Poverty, hunger and vulnerability (MDG1) Child mortality, maternal mortality (MDGs 4 and 5) School attendance (MDG2) Promoting gender equality (MDG 3) Sustainability (other aspects of MDG 7)

Hutton and Haller (2004) and Rijsberman (2004) „ Benefit cost ratios of well above 2.0

Water essential for well-being, functionings, capabilities, and human development A human ‘right’ to water (UN,2002)


Figure 1: Synergy?

Source: Anand P.B.,2007, Scarcity, entitlements and the economics of water in developing countries, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar


Messages from figure 1 „

„

Most Asian countries with access to water for 60 per cent or more of the population Is there path dependence or sequence? First improve access to water „ Then improve access to sanitation „


Income and access to water Australia

Tonga 100.00

Lebanon

Israel Japan

Malaysia

Access to water % of pop 2000

90.00

Samoa

Nepal India 80.00

Philippines Thailand

Indonesia Viet Nam

70.00 Yemen

Mongolia Tajikistan

Oman

China Turkmenistan

Vanautu

50.00

40.00

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan Solomon Islands

60.00

Korea Re

Jordan

Pakistan

Uzbekistan

Fiji

Papua New Guinea Lao People's Democratic Republ

30.00 R Sq Linear = 0.313 7.00

8.00

9.00

Log of GDP per capita

10.00


Income and access to sanitation Kyrgyzstan

Jordan

Israel

Thailand

Lebanon

100.00

Australia Japan

Samoa Tonga

Oman

Access to sanitation % of pop 2000

Sri Lanka Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Syrian Arab Republic

80.00

Philippines Kazakhstan Korea Re Uzbekistan

60.00

Pakistan

Tajikistan Bangladesh 40.00

Mongolia

Vanautu China

Papua New Guinea Yemen

Turkmenistan Indonesia

Viet Nam Fiji

Solomon Islands Lao People's Democratic Republ

Nepal 20.00

Cambodia

R Sq Linear = 0.431 0.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Log of GDP per capita

10.00


Give it a bit of time? Israel 100.00 Iran (Islamic Republic of) India Myanmar

Thailand Iraq

Indonesia

80.00

China

Oman

Tonga

Kazakhstan Philippines Thailand

Viet Nam Sri Lanka

Yemen Uzbekistan

60.00

Philippines

40.00

Papua New Guinea

Viet Nam 20.00

Yemen

Fit line for Access to sanitation % of pop 1990 Access to sanitation % of pop 2000

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Myanmar

China

Nepal

R Sq Linear = 0.758 India

R Sq Linear = 0.86

0.00

20.00

Access to water % o pop 2000 Access to water % o pop 1990

Fit line for Access to water % of pop 200 Access to water % o pop 1990

Indonesia

Papua New Guinea

Access to sanitation % of pop 1990 Access to sanitation % of pop 2000

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00


Strategic imperatives „

Group 1: countries with significantly high proportion of population (>60%) having access to both water and sanitation „

„

Group 2: countries where access to water has improved significantly but access to sanitation remains low „

„

Sri Lanka, Thailand, Oman, Iran, Syria, and Kazakhstan…

India, Pakistan, Viet Nam and Nepal…

Group 3: countries where access to both water and sanitation remains low „

Lao PDR, Cambodia, Afghanistan…


Strategic imperatives „

„

„

Group 1: To sustain the investments already made Group 2: To continue improving access to water but more importantly to focus on sanitation as an urgent priority Group 3: To invest in both water and sanitation sectors and exploit synergies and scale economies


Are Asian countries on track to achieve Target 10? „

Data – the major constraint to forecast „

„

Available only for 2 points in time 1990 and 2002 from WHO-UNICEF

Method used by WHO-UNICEF dw = wit2 – wit1 wit3 = wit2 + dw MDG = 0.5(100 - wit2) On track if dw > MDG Off track if dw < MDG


Are Asian countries on track to achieve Target 10? „

An alternative approach wit2

„ „

= f (wit1, Xit1) = α + β1 wit1 + β2GDPit1 + β3GDPgrowthi,t1,t2 + +β4HealthGDPit1 …

Estimate the above equation for data from 1990 and 2002 Use parameters of this equation to forecast for 2015 based on data of 2002 edw

= wit32– wit2 MDG = 0.5(100 - wit2) On track if edw > MDG Off track if edw < MDG


Forecasts and implications „ „ „

Regression models in the appendix to the paper Forecasts in tables 1 and 2 Countries where water target is likely to be missed (by more than 6 % of population) „

„

Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Turkmenistan, Yemen, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Lao PDR, Cambodia

Sanitation target is likely to be missed by several countries (table 2)


Financing issues „ „

Volume of finance Mix of instruments Loans „ Grants/ aid „


Does aid help? 40

Change in % of pop access to water 1990-2000

Tanzania-UR Myanmar 30

Central African Republic

Malawi

Paraguay 20

Haiti

Ghana

Namibia Guatemala

Ecuador

India

Nepal Cameroon Mexico

Azerbaijan 10

Bolivia

Sri Lanka Turkey Nicaragua

Dominican Republic

Liberia

Thailand Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Benin

Madagascar

Honduras China

Zimbabwe

Bangladesh

Colombia Djibouti Botswana

Vanautu

0

Viet Nam

Syrian Arab Republic Iraq

Egypt

Ethiopia

Philippines

Algeria Jordan

-10 Maldives

-20

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

Log of water aid 1990-2000 total in millions$

8.00


Financing for water and sanitation „ „ „

OECD-CRS data for 1990-2002 Data relates to commitments Aid „ „

„

Worldwide approx US$ 1 billion per annum Asian countries received approx US$ 300 million per annum

Loans „ „

Worldwide approx US$ 1.8 billion per annum Asian countries received approx US$ 900 million per annum


Financing mix: Aid or loans?


Aid and loans in Asia:1990-2002


Financing mix: implications


Financing mix- Privatisation „

Privatisation of water utilities „

„

Malaysia, China, Philippines

Private sector involvement Construction „ Billing and collection „ Service contracts „

„

Windfall incomes from privatisation of other infrastructure (table 3) „

Such income seems to have mattered (san)


Financing mix - implications „ „

A need for a regional strategy Aid may be crucial for Group 3 countries „

„

And for improving sanitation in some Group 2 countries

Continuing water sector reforms in Group 2 countries Increasing use of loan financing „ Implications for water charging and inequality „


Other policy implications „

„ „

„

„

The role of economic growth (table in A1 in appendix) Per capita GDP matters (and hence, aid issues) Improving water and sanitation can contribute to reducing inequality Water resources per capita (natural resource constraint) is not significant Governance matters (figure 8)


Regional co-operation „

For aid to be more effective, a regional approach to Target 10 „

„

For loans to be more effective, the need for a regional network „ „

„

Priorities different for Group3 v Group 2 countries

Benchmarking of performance indicators More than information dissemination

International water resources and co-operation issues „ „

Preliminary indications Institutions for regional public goods


Â&#x201E;

Thank you.

meeting the mdg water target in asia: the role of regional co-operation  

this presentation focuses on access to water and sanitation related to the millennium development goals in asia. in most asian countries 60...

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