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Categorical Precipitation Forecast for December 2010 to February 2011 Issued in November 2010


PROGRAMME Aims of the initiative are •

Strengthen the collaboration and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

Produce improved well-calibrated real-time probabilistic seasonal forecasts for South America

Develop real-time forecast products for nonprofitable governmental use (e.g. reservoir management, hydropower production, agriculture and health)

Tuesday, 14 December 09:00 – 12:00 SESSION 1: INTRODUCTION 09:00-09:30 David Stephenson (U. of Exeter): “EUROBRISA – aims of this final workshop” 09:30-10:00 Caio Coelho (CPTEC): “EUROBRISA forecasting system overview” 10:00-10:30 Francisco Doblas-Reyes (IC3): “Beyond seasonal forecasting: annual and interannual dynamical ensemble forecasting”

SESSION 2: SEASONAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS 11:00-11:30 Alberto Arribas (UK Met Office): “The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecasting” 11:30-12:00 Jef Gueremy (Météo France): “Météo-France EUROSIP contribution: present, future and sensitivity experiments”

Tuesday, 14 December 12:00 – 18:00 SESSION 3: SEASONAL FORECAST COMMUNICATION AND APPLICATION 12:00-12:30 Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF): “The new ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (System 4)” 12:30-13:00 Tércio Ambrizzi (USP): “Teleconnection Patterns and Seasonal Climate Prediction over South America” 13:00-14:30 Lunch Break 14:30-15:00 Alexandre Guetter (UFPR): “Generating streamflow forecasts for the Southeastern/Southern Brazilian hydropower production using EUROBRISA’s integrated rainfall climate forecasts” 15:00-15:30 Simone Costa (CPTEC): “Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications: An illustration for crop yield prediction” 15:30-16:00 Rachel Lowe (University of Exeter/ICTP): “Spatio-temporal modelling of climatesensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil” 16:30-17:00 Xavier Rodo (IC3): “Top-down vs bottom-up approaches in climate-sensitive disease models: implications for disease prediction” 17:00-17:30 Tim Jupp (University of Exeter): “Interpretation, verification and calibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts” 17:30-18:00 Luis Rodrigues (IC3): “From South America to European climate: Seasonal forecast assimilation for the Mediterranean area”

BARCELONA 14 and 15 December 2010


Wednesday, 15 December 09:30 – 18:00 SESSION 4: FUTURE PLANS 09:30-10:30 Discussion of key outputs from the EUROBRISA project and preparation of highlight slides for afternoon presentation 11:00-12:30 Discussion of ideas for future plans

SESSION 5: WIDER DISSEMINATION 14:00-16:00 Summary presentations of highlights by D. Stephenson, C. Coelho and R.Lowe 16:30-18:00 Panel discussion taking climate questions from the audience Panel: D. Stephenson, C. Coelho, R. Lowe

Partners University of Exeter, UK Project Leader David B. Stephenson, Rachel Lowe, Trevor Bailey, Tim Jupp

CPTEC, Brazil Caio A.S. Coelho, Simone M.S. Costa

Met Office, UK Richard Graham, Alberto Arribas

University of Sao Paulo, Brazil Tercio Ambrizzi

Météo France, France Michel Deque, Jef Gueremy

Federal University of Parana, Brazil Alexandre Guetter

ECMWF, EU Magdalena Balmaseda

IC3, Spain Francisco Doblas-Reyes

INMET, Brazil

Antonio D. Moura

EUROBRISA The key idea of EUROBRISA is to improve seasonal forecasts in South America, a region where there is seasonal forecast skill and useful value.


EUROBRISA is supported by

For more information about EUROBRISA please contact Professor David B. Stephenson Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho