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Annual&Report&

1st&Edition&

2008&5&2010&


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Credits( ©&COPYRIGHT&2011& ! Produced&by:!

Lab!of!Education,!Dissemination!and!Public!Outreach!(LEDIC)!

!

Catalan!Institute!of!Climate!Sciences!(Institut'Català'de'Ciències'del'Clima!>!IC3)!! C/!Doctor!Trueta,!203!|!08005!Barcelona! www.ic3.cat&

! Texts&and&graphics:!

IC3!researchers!and!staff!members!!

! Editing:&!

LEDIC!

! Design&and&copy&editing:&

Franziska!Ewald!de!Aceves!

! Cover&design:!

Neus!Cañas!

! Printing:& !

!

Artyplan!Barcelona!


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1 FOREWORD( ! !

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Letter(from(the(Director(

The!Catalan!Institute!of!Climate!Sciences!(Institut'Català'de'Ciències'del'Clima,!IC3)!was!founded!in! mid>2008!as!a!new!research!center!within!the!CERCA!Program,!visualizing!the!firm!commitment!of! Catalan! society! and! Government! in! confronting! one! of! the! most! important! challenges! that! our! Earth!has!been!faced!with!to!date.!Climate!change!is!already!having!a!huge!impact!worldwide,!and! the! Mediterranean! region! in! particular! is! one! of! the! areas! of! the! world! where,! unfortunately,! those! impacts! are! expected! to! be! major! and! more! severe.! The! need! to! understand! how! our! climate! behaves,! what! makes! the! Mediterranean! area! so! responsive! and! how! to! anticipate! the! most! likely! negative! consequences! that! this! threat! poses! to! our! people’s! lives! and! economies! prompted!the!creation!of!this!small!core!of!research!in!the!heart!of!Barcelona.!! When! IC3! was! created,! it! became! the! first! independent! research! center! in! Spain! devoted! to! studying!the!most!fundamental!problems!in!climate!science!and!climate!impacts,!and!one!of!the! few! in! existence! to! date! in! the! Mediterranean! region.! Contemporary! challenges! urged! new! and! visionary! ways! of! tackling! the! complicated! nature! of! these! scientific! problems,! as! new! science! requires! new! views! and! insights.! Those! unique! research! milestones! often! lie! at! the! boundaries! between! traditional! disciplines! and! require! a! combination! of! methods! and! different! educational! backgrounds! to! approach! them! optimally.! Despite! the! limited! resources! allocated! to! IC3! at! this! initial! stage,! its! people! are! extremely! grateful! to! our! society! for! the! effort! made! every! day! in! making!this!new!and!exciting!adventure!possible;!that!is,!to!be!able!to!delve!into!the!interlinks!of! climate! variability! and! change! on! a! daily! basis.! IC3! scientists! are! entirely! committed! to! this! task,! they!are!completely!aware!of!the!role!they!must!play!in!the!international!arena!and!will!try!as!hard! as! they! can! to! dedicate! themselves! to! their! research! goals.! IC3! was! born! to! become! an! international!research!reference!institution!in!the!climate!sciences,!in!a!unique!attempt!to!better! understand!the!complex!interactions!between!climate!and!the!biosphere.!! IC3!is!expected!to!achieve!leadership!in!the!Mediterranean!region!and!Europe,!and!though!we!are! still!far!from!reaching!this,!we!are!strongly!and!successfully!heading!in!the!right!direction.!Despite! our!small!group!of!scientists,!we!are!rapidly!gaining!international!recognition!both!individually!and! as! a! center,! for! both! our! individual! research! and! for! the! important! projects,! initiatives! and! committees! around! the! world! in! which! the! institute! is! now! participating.! Regardless! of! the! difficulties! we! are! facing,! I! am! proud! of! the! way! the! Institute! is! beginning! to! advance! in! the! scientific!field,!and!I!am!absolutely!convinced!that!with!the!support!of!our!trustees!and!donors,!IC3! will!soon!establish!itself!and!become!a!complete!success!as!a!new!scientific!beacon!of!knowledge! in!just!a!few!short!years.!! We!are!all!excited!to!be!a!part!of!this!challenge.!

Xavier'Rodó'i'López' Director"of"the"Catalan"Institute"of"Climate"Sciences"(IC3)" September"2011!


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Table(of(Contents( ! !

2! A"CLIMATE"RESEARCH"INSTITUTION"IN"BARCELONA"

9"

ABOUT"IC3’S"MISSION"AND"VISION"

9!

BACKGROUND"AND"ACHIEVEMENTS"

13!

" " 3! STRUCTURE"AND"FACILITIES"

14!

GOVERNANCE"

14!

IC3’S"SCIENTIFIC"ADVISORY"BOARD"

16!

ORGANIZATION"CHART"

20!

CONCEPTUAL"CHART"

21!

3

IC "MEMBER"STATISTICS" RESEARCH!AND!SUPPORT!STAFF! NATIONALITY! AGE!STRUCTURE! MOBILITY! !

IC3'S"FACILITIES"

22! 22! 23! 24! 24! 26!

" " 4! FINANCIAL"INFORMATION"

" " "

28!

FINANCIAL"EVOLUTION"

28!

FUNDING"

29!

EXPENDITURE"

29!

COMPETITIVE"FUNDING"AND"PROJECTS"

31!


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5! HIGHLIGHTS"

35!

GETTING"AHEAD"OF"EL"NIÑO"

35!

COMPLEX"RESPONSES"OF"AMAZONIAN"FIRE"TO"CLIMATE"

37!

SEABIRDS'"SHIFTING"MOVEMENT"PATTERNS"CAN"BE"SEEN"ON"A"REGIONAL"SCALE"

38!

ECZEARTH"ESM"

39!

FRANCISCO"DOBLASZREYES,"LEAD"AUTHOR"OF"IPCC"

40!

HIGH"PERFORMANCE"COMPUTING"CLUSTER"(ITHACA)"

41!

NEW"IC3"HEADQUARTERS"IN"POBLENOU"

42!

EUROBRISA"

44!

VISIT"FROM"FORMER"PRESIDENT"OF"CATALONIA"JOSÉ"MONTILLA"

45!

”LA"CAIXA”"FOUNDATION"WELFARE"PROJECTS"WILL"PROVIDE"SIX"MILLION"EUROS"TO"THE"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" CLIMADAT"PROJECT"OVER"THE"NEXT"FIVE"YEARS" 46!

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6! RESEARCH" CLIMATE"DYNAMICS"AND"IMPACTS"UNIT"(UDIC)" GENERAL!OBJECTIVES! MAIN!ACHIEVEMENTS! SUMMARY!! !HEAD!OF!THE!UNIT! MEMBERS!! REFERENCES! PROJECTS! ! RESEARCH!GROUPS! CLIMATE!AND!HEALTH!RG! GLOBAL!CLIMATE!VARIABILITY!RG! MEDITERRANEAN!CLIMATES!AND!EXTREMES!RG! HYDROCLIMATE!MODELS!RG! OCEAN!DYNAMICS!AND!CLIMATE!RG!

49! 49! 49! 49! 50! 50! 50! 51! 52! 53! 53! 60! 67! 70! 73!

" CLIMATE"FORECASTING"UNIT"(CFU)" GENERAL!OBJECTIVES! MAIN!ACHIEVEMENTS! SUMMARY!! HEAD!OF!THE!UNIT! MEMBERS!! REFERENCES! RESEARCH!THEMES! PROJECTS! ! PLANS!FOR!2011!

78! 78! 78! 78! 79! 79! 80! 80! 86! 86!


6! ! " " " CLIMATE"CHANGE"UNIT"(CCU)" CLIMATE!COMPLEXITY!RG!

87! 87!

" OCEANS"AND"ATMOSPHERE"LAB"(LAO)" GENERAL!OBJECTIVES! MAIN!ACHIEVEMENTS! SUMMARY!! HEAD!OF!THE!UNIT! MEMBERS!! AREAS!OF!ACTIVITY! PROJECTS! ! PLANS!FOR!2011!

92! 92! 92! 92! 93! 93! 94! 95! 95!

" LAB"OF"EDUCATION,"DISSEMINATION"AND"PUBLIC"OUTREACH"(LEDIC)" GENERAL!OBJECTIVES! MAIN!ACHIEVEMENTS! SUMMARY!! HEAD!OF!THE!UNIT! MEMBERS!! FIELDS!OF!ACTIVITY! PROJECTS! ! PLANS!FOR!2011!

96! 96! 96! 97! 98! 98! 98! 99! 100!

" SUPPORT"STAFF" MANAGEMENT!AND!CORE!SERVICES! INFORMATION!TECHNOLOGY,!COMPUTING!AND!DATABASE!ADMINISTRATION! FUNDRAISING!AND!CORPORATE!DEVELOPMENT! PROJECT!MANAGEMENT! FINANCE! ! STAFF!MEMBERS!

101! 101! 101! 101! 102! 102! 103!

" " 7! INSTITUTIONAL"RELATIONS"

104!


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" 8! ANNEXES"

109!

ANNEX"I:"IC3"STAFF"IN"2010"

109"

ANNEX"II:"PROJECTS"

111! 111! 113! 115!

! QWECI:!QUANTIFYING!WEATHER!AND!CLIMATE!IMPACTS!ON!HEALTH!IN!DEVELOPING!COUNTRIES! FLUXPYR:!GLOBAL!CHANGE!IN!THE!PYRENEES! KAWASAKI:!KAWASAKI!DISEASE!>!DISENTANGLING!THE!ROLE!OF!CLIMATE!IN!THE!OUTBREAKS! MED3D:!HIGH!RESOLUTION!3D!VELOCITY!FIELD!RECONSTRUCTION!FROM!SATELLITE!SEA!SURFACE! TEMPERATURE!OBSERVATIONS!IN!THE!MEDITERRANEAN!SEA! CLIM>RUN:!CLIMATE!LOCAL!INFORMATION!IN!THE!MEDITERRANEAN!REGION!RESPONDING!TO!USER!NEEDS! VIROCLIME:!IMPACT!OF!CLIMATE!CHANGE!ON!THE!TRANSPORT,!FATE!AND!RISK!MANAGEMENT!OF!VIRAL! PATHOGENS!IN!WATER! CLIMADAT:!NETWORK!OF!CLIMATE!MEASUREMENT!STATIONS!

117! 119! 121! 123!

! ANNEX"III:"PUBLICATIONS"

126"

ANNEX"IV:"EVENTS"

129"

ANNEX"V:"OUTREACH"

133!

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2 A(Climate(Research( Institution(in(Barcelona( ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

The!Catalan!Institute!of!Climate!Sciences!(IC3)!is!an!independent,!non>profit!research"center" located! in! Barcelona! and! promoted! by! the! Generalitat' de' Catalunya,! Catalonia's! Autonomous!Regional!Government,!within!the!CERCA" network,!a!program!of!excellence!in" research! that! currently! brings! together! more! than! 30! research! institutions! in! one! of! the! larger,! if!not!the!largest,!scientific! clusters!in!Southern!Europe.! IC3! is! particularly!unique!in! geographical! terms! because! is! the! first! large>scope! climate! research! center! created! in! the! Mediterranean!Basin.! As! an! independently! managed,! public" nonZprofit" institution,! IC3! was! created! to! efficiently! undertake! top! level! research! in! the! field! of! climate! sciences,! with! a! special! geographical! focus!on! the!Mediterranean!region,! Latin!America! and!Africa.! Our!vision" is! to! be!a! unique! institution! by! fully! integrating! biospheric! processes! in! the! next! generation! of! climate! information! models! and! in! doing! so,! becoming! an! international! benchmark! within! our! thematic!area.!Our!main"objective"is!to!contribute!to!generating!and!advancing!knowledge! about! the! climate! by! bridging! the! gap! between! the! physics! of! the! climate! system! and!the! complexity!of!the!biosphere.!

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About(IC3’s(Mission(and(Vision(( The!bulk!of!evidence!clearly!points!toward!a!very!different!climate,!environment!and!society! in!a!time!horizon!not!far!beyond!the!next!human!generation.!The!byproducts!of!our!energy! model! will! significantly!alter! Earth's! climate! system,!and! in! a!few! years! nine! billion! people! will! face! global! warming! of! at! least! one! and! a! half! degrees! on! average,! a! remarkable! temporal!and!spatial!redistribution!of!rainfall!patterns,!as!well!as!a!significant!increase!in!the! frequency! of! extreme! weather! events.! All! these! people! will! need! food,! water,! housing,! healthcare!and!energy.!How!these!needs!will!be!fulfilled!in!a!world!with!increasingly!scarce! resources!is!a!complex!conundrum!that!still!needs!to!be!solved.!We!want!to!do!our!part!in! finding!a!solution!for!the!benefit!of!future!generations.!!


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IC3’s(mission(is(to( understand(the( interaction( between(the( physical(climate( system(and(the( biosphere(for(the( benefit(of(future( generations(

We! want! to! be! unique! by! integrating! the! Earth’s! complexity! into! climate! research.! Our! main! goal! is! to! evaluate,! understand! and! predict!climate! variability!and!change! on! scales! ranging! from! regional! to! global,! and! timeframes! ranging! from! seasons! to! decades.!From!this!understanding,!we!also! want! to! better! learn! how! to! simulate! the! way! climate! variability! and! change! drives! the! dynamics! and! responses! of! societies! and! ecosystems.! IC3’s! desire! is! to! become! a! leading! international! center! for! climate! research!in!Europe,!with!regional!focus!on! the! Mediterranean,! Latin! America,! Southeast! Asia!and! Africa.!As!a! secondary! goal,! IC3! also! aims! to! provide! high! quality! climate! information! to! the! public! and! stakeholders! through! its! cutting>edge! research! and! education,! in! addition! to! developing! applications! and! tools! to! assess! current! and! future! climate>related! risks.!!

©NASA!


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IC ’s(VISION( IC3’s(ambition(is(to(be(a(unique(institution(by(bringing(biospheric( processes(to(the(next(generation(of(climate(information(systems,( thereby(becoming(a(benchmark(within(our(thematic(area( ( In!accordance!with!international!programs,!we!are!working!toward!accomplishing!the! following!institutional!goals:!! 1)

To"increase"our"understanding"of"past"and" present"climate"variability"and"change."

4)

To" reduce" uncertainty" in" predictions" about"future"climate"and"related"change."

2)

To" produce" timely" and" reliable" information" on" natural" climate" variability" and"anthropogenic"forcing."

5)

To" understand" ecosystem" and" biogeochemical" responses" to" climate" change."

3)

To" quantify" and" understand" what" drives" climate"change"and"climate"variability."

6)

To"develop"resources"and"tools"to"support" policies," planning" and" adaptive" management"

In!order!to!meet!these!goals,!IC3!evaluates,!understands!and!predicts!climate!variability!and!change!by! using,! collecting! and! analyzing! observational! data,! accurately! diagnosing! the! observations,! and! developing!and!improving!climate!models!to!refine!the!complex!Earth!system!models.!IC3!also!provides! climate!information!to!the!public!through!outreach!activities!and!by!developing!applications!and!tools! for!assessing!climate>related!risks.!!


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Institutional!goals!will!be!achieved!by!promoting!three! interrelated!focuses!of!development. RESEARCH! IC3!undertakes!cutting>edge,!broad!scope!research!in!the!field!of!fundamental! climate! dynamics,! ranging! from! climate! diagnosis! to! improving! climate! predictions! within! subseasonal,! seasonal,! interannual! and! longer! timeframes.! Under! this! approach,! analyzing! ocean! observations! and! climate> biogeochemistry! interactions! and! developing! coupled! ocean>atmosphere> biosphere! models! are! key! in! understanding! the! role! played! by! humans! in! changing!the!current!climate,!the!long>term!evolution!of!climate!variability,!as! well! as! in! improving! our! climate! prediction! potential.! This! approach! also! emphasizes! the! importance! of! paleoclimate! research! to! provide! climate! scenarios! quite! unlike! those! revealed! in! the! short! instrumental! record,! thus! helping!to!expand!our!view!of!the!Earth’s!climate!system!and!to!challenge!our! conceptual!understanding!and!modeling!ability.!Finally,!IC3!aims!to!be!a!leading! player! in! the! international! arena! by! focusing! on! emerging! hot! topics! such! as! the! ability! to! predict! regional! climate,! particularly! for! Europe! and! the! Mediterranean! region,! improving! our! understanding! of! climate! theory! and! analyzing!climate>biosphere!interactions.!

EDUCATION! Within! IC3! we! are! developing! wide>ranging! educational! programs! aimed! at! a! broad! audience! (from! international! Masters! and! PhD! courses! on! climate! sciences! with! extensive! coverage! of! the! basics! and! its! applications,! to! educational! tools! for! elementary! schools),! in! order! to! promote! scientific! professions! and! attract! the! best! students! from! all! over! the! world.! Spreading! and!communicating!climate!sciences!throughout!society!is!also!encouraged!as! a! parallel! activity! within! the! Institute,! and! as! a! way! to! create! a! solid! background! of! climate! sciences! knowledge! for! raising! awareness! and! supporting!decision!makers.!

KNOWLEDGE!TRANSFER! Our!Institute!aims!to!be!highly!proactive!in!establishing!working!partnerships! with! other! research! and! governmental! agencies! and! fostering! application! projects! from! our! research! members! (e.g.! developing! climate! tools,! such! as! the! seasonal! climate! forecasting! initiative! that! is! being! developed! by! IC3's! Climate! Forecasting! Unit,! CFU).! The! development! of! end>user! applications! is! also!within!the!Institute’s!remit,!for!example,!early!warning!systems!and!other! tools! and! products! for! adapting! to! and/or! mitigating! future! climate! change! effects!or!emerging!threats!to!human!health.!


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Background(and(Achievements( ! In! the! early! 21st! century,! the! most! important! climate! research! centers! in! Europe! (those! with! scientists! participating! in! the! steering! committees! of! the! World! Climate! Research! Programme! [WCRP]! or! with! leading! authors!in! the!last! IPCC! report)! were! basically! located! in!the! core!European!area!focused! around! Paris,! London! and! Berlin.! As! can! be! clearly! seen! in! the! graphic! below,! Europe’s! periphery! lacked! significant! climate! research! centers!contributing!to!this!core,!which!probably!reflects!the!recognized!delay!in!scientific!development!in!these! areas.! At! the! same! time,! and! with! growing! consensus,! climate! research! results! identified! the! Mediterranean! region!as!one!of!the!most!important!climatic!hotspots!on!the!planet!(i.e.!regions!with!greater!climate!change!and! resulting! associated! impacts).! This! combination! of! factors! was! identified! in! 2004! by! researchers! at! Barcelona! Science!Park’s!Climate!Research!Laboratory!(LRC>PCB)!as!an!empty!niche,!ready!and!lacking!any!key!players!on!the! large! Mediterranean! scene.! The! possibility! of! establishing! an! international! climate! research! center! in! Southern! Europe,! with! the! aim! of! becoming! a! major! climate! science! center! in! the! Mediterranean,! was! proposed! to! the! Department!of!Innovation,!University!and!Business!(now!known!as!the!Department!of!Economy!and!Knowledge),! the!public!body!in!charge!of!research!and!innovation!policies!in!the!Catalan!Regional!Government.!The!proposal! was! well! received! and! two! years! later,! in! July! 2008,! the! non>profit! organization! Catalan! Institute! of! Climate! Sciences!(Fundació'Institut'Català'de'Ciències'del'Clima)!was!founded,!with!the!former!head!of!the!LRC>PCB,!Dr.! Xavier!Rodó,!appointed!as!its!first!Director.! In! the! short! period! of! time! that! has! elapsed!since!its!creation,!the!young! and! dynamic! Institute! has! grown! from!an!initial!core!staff!of!six!people! from! LRC>PCB! to! 38! researchers,! technicians! and! other! support! staff! working! in! the! Institute! as! at! December! 31,! 2010.! In! these! two! and! a! half! years,! three! research! units,! two! labs! and! a! fully! operational! support! administration! were! established,! a! new! corporate! headquarters!was!found!and!granted! and!the!basic!research!infrastructure! was!secured!and!set!up.!Section!five! highlights! some! of! the! most! remarkable! scientific! results! and! institutional! achievements! from! the! 2008>2010! period,! but! this! young! Institute’s! greatest! success! has! probably! been! that! of! growing! from! scratch,! despite! the! uncertainty! of! the! international! economy,! to! becoming! a! player! that! is! already! internationally! recognized! in! the! climate!research!arena.!

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3 Structure(and(Facilities( !

Governance( The! Board! of! Trustees! is! the! top! governing,! administration! and! representation! body! of! the! Catalan! Institute! of! Climate! Sciences,! a! non>profit! public! organization.! The! original! Board!of!Trustees! comprised! the! Department! of! Innovation,! Universities! and! Enterprises! (2! members)! and" the! Department! of! Housing! and! Environment" (2! members)!–!both!from!the!Catalan& Regional& Government"(Generalitat'de'Catalunya)!–!as!well!as!the"University& of&Barcelona"(2!members).!

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Board(of( Trustees( 2008R2010(

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Chairman" Honorable! Mr.! Josep! Huguet! i! Biosca,! Minister' of' Innovation,' Universities' and' Enterprises'of'the'Catalan'Regional'Government,!2008>10.! First"Deputy"Chairman" Honorable! Mr.! Francesc! Baltasar! i! Albesa,! Minister' of' Town' Planning' and' Environment'of'the'Catalan'Regional'Government,!2008>10.' Second"Deputy"Chairman" Most! Excellent! Rector! Josep! Samitier! i! Martí,! Lord' Rector' of' the' University' of' Barcelona,'2008.! Most! Excellent! Rector! Didac! Ramírez! Sarrió,' Lord' Rector' of' the' University' of' Barcelona,!2009>10.! Members" Mr.!Ramón!Moreno!Amich,!General'Director'for'Research,'Office'of'Innovation,' Universities'and'Enterprise,!2008>2009.! Mr.! Joan! Roca! I! Acín,! General' Director' for' Research,' Office' of' Innovation,' Universities'and'Enterprise,!2010.! Mr.!David!Rodríguez!Albert,!Director'of'the'Meteorological'Service'of'Catalonia,! 2008>10.! Ms.! Carme! Muñoz! i! Lahoz,! ViceJChancellor' of' Scientific' Policies,' University' of' Barcelona,!2008.! Mr.! Jordi! Alberch! Vié,! ViceJChancellor' for' Research,' University' of' Barcelona,! 2009>10.! Mr.! Manuel! Viladevall! Solé,! Commissioner' for' Sustainability,' University' of' Barcelona,'2009>10.! NonZtrustee"Secretary" Mr.! Josep>Maria! Alcoberro! i! Pericay,! CERCA' Program,' Office' of' Innovation,' Universities'and'Enterprise,!2008>10.!


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After! reorganizing! in! December! 2010,! it! was! necessary! to! appoint! new! trustees! from! the! Catalan! Regional! Government.!Two!members!were!designated!from!the!newly!created"Ministry& of& Economy& and& Knowledge,& and! another!two!members!from!the!new!Ministry&of&Territory&and&Sustainability&in!the!first!half!of!2011.!! The!following!people!are!now!members!of!the!Board!of!Trustees:!

!

Chairman" Honorable! Mr.! Andreu! Mas>Colell,! Minister' of' Economy' and' Knowledge' of' the'Catalan'Regional'Government,'from!2011.! First"Deputy"Chairman" Mr.! Josep! Enric! Llebot! i! Rabagliati,! Secretary' of' Environment' and' Sustainability,'from!2011.' Second"Deputy"Chairman" Most!Excellent!Rector!Didac! Ramírez! Sarrió,' Lord' Rector'of'the' University' of' Barcelona,!since!2009.! Members" Mr.!Josep!Maria!Martorell!i!Rodon,!General'Director'of'Research,'Ministry'of' Economy'and'Knowledge,!from!2011.! Ms.!Marta!Subirà!i!Roca,!General'Director'of'Environmental'Policies,'Ministry' of'Territory'and'Sustainability,!from!2011.! Mr.! Jordi! Alberch! Vié,! ViceJChancellor' of' the' University' of' Barcelona,! since! 2009.! Mr.! Manuel! Viladevall! Solé,! ViceJChancellor' of' the' University' of' Barcelona,' since!2009.! Secretary" Mr.!Josep!Maria!Martorell!i!Rodon,!General'Director'of'Research,'Ministry'of' Economy'and'Knowledge,!from!2011.!

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Board(of( Trustees( appointed( for(2011(


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IC3’s(Scientific(Advisory(Board( On!May!13,!2009!IC3’s!Scientific!Advisory!Board!(SAB)!was!established!in!an!official!event!attended!by!authorities,! members! of! the! Board! of! Trustees! and! renowned! scientists.! This! event,! part! of! a! scientific! seminar! called! “Climate! Change:! New! challenges! for! the! 21st! century”,! was! a! resounding! success! and! took! place! at! the! headquarters!of!the!Royal!Academy!of!Science!and!Arts!of!Barcelona.!As!a!result!of!a!private!meeting!held!at!IC3’s! headquarters,!the!first!SAB!report!was!written.! The!SAB!is!a!committee! of!experts!at!the!service!of!the! Institute,!representing! the!most!renowned!scientists!in! the!field!worldwide.!Its!main!task!is!to!inform!the!Board!of!Trustees!and!the!Director!about!the!definition!of!new! research!lines!and!strategies,!and!also!about!the!best!ways!to!recruit!talent!and!increase!the!Institute’s!scientific! strength.!The! Board! will! also! conduct! regular!evaluations! of!all! scientific! activities!and!results!generated!within! the!Institute,!which!will!serve!as!the!guidelines!to!follow!in!meeting!excellence!criteria!and!fulfilling!the!Institute’s! scientific!and!educational!mission.!

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SAB" members" ensure" IC3’s" excellence." The" Board" includes" five" leading" IPCC" authors" or" coordinators," six" directors" of" international" research" centers," four" members"of"leading"research"panels"and"five"research"prize"winners."

Daniel&R.&Cayan&& Director! of! the! Climate! Research! Division,! Scripps! Institution! of! Oceanography,! University! of! California,! San! Diego! (USA)! and! Researcher! in! the! Water! Resources! Division!of! the!US! Geological! Survey.!Expert!on! regional! climate!change,!member!of! several! international! panels! and! steering! committees! on! climate! observation! and! monitoring,!as!well!as!contributing!author!of!IPCC's!Fourth!Assessment!Report!(AR4)! in!Working!Group!I!(WGI)!(2007).! Co>President!of!the!SAB! Axel&Timmermann&& Associate! Professor,! Department! of! Oceanography,! University! of! Hawaii! at! Manoa,! Honolulu! (Hawaii,! USA).! Chair! of! the! International! CLIVAR! Pacific! Panel! for! paleoclimate! modeling! and! theoretical! climate! dynamics.! Expert! on! paleoclimate! modeling!and!theoretical!climate!dynamics.! Co>President!of!the!SAB!

Mercedes&Pascual& Researcher!at!the!Howard!Hughes!Medical!Institute,!visiting!professor!of!the!Center! for!the!Study!of!Complex!Systems!at!the!Santa!Fe!Institute!(USA),!as!well!as!assistant! professor! of! the! Ecology! and! Evolutionary! Biology! Department! in! the! University! of! Michigan.!She!is!an!expert!in!modeling!climate!forcing!systems!as!well!as!in!complex! systems!dynamics.!

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Tim&Palmer&& Director! of! the! Probability! Forecasting! and! Diagnostics! Division! of! the! European! Centre!for!Medium>Range!Weather!Forecasts!(ECMWF),!UK.!Co>chair!of!the!Scientific! Steering! Group! of! the! World! Climate! Research! Programme’s! Climate! Variability! and! Predictability! (CLIVAR)! project.! He! has! been! leading! author! in! the! IPCC’s! Third! and! Fourth!Assessment!Reports,!AR3!and!AR4!(2001!and!2007,!respectively),!and!winner!of! the! American! Meteorological! Society’s! Charney! Award,! as! well! as! the! Buchan! Prize! from!the!Royal!Meteorological!Society.!He!is!an!expert!on!seasonal!climate!prediction! and!probabilistic!climate!modeling.!

Filippo&Giorgi&& Director!of!the!Physics!of!Weather!and!Climate!Section!and!International!Coordinator! of!scientific!programs!at!the!Abdus!Salam!International!Centre!for!Theoretical!Physics!>! ICTP!>!(Trieste,!Italy).He!is!also!vice>chairman!of!IPCC's!WGI.!He!is!an!expert!in!regional! climate!models!and!future!scenario!projections.!

Eystein&Jansen& Scientific! Director! of! the! Bjerknes! Center! for! Climate! Research! and! Head! of! the! Department!of!Earth!Sciences!at!the!University!of!Bergen!(Norway).!He!is!co>chairman! of!the!PAGES/CLIVAR!Intersection!Working!Group!and!member!of!the!PAGES!Scientific! Steering! Committee,! as! well! as! coordinator! and! leading! author! of! the! paleoclimate! chapter!of!IPCC's!AR4!(2007).!He!is!an!expert!in!paleoclimate!science.!

James&L.&Kinter&III&& Director! of! the! Center! for! Ocean>Land>Atmosphere! Studies! (COLA)! and! associate! professor! of! the! Climate! Dynamics! Ph.D.! program! in! the! School! of! Computational! Sciences! at! George! Mason! University! (USA).! Expert! in! atmospheric! models,! tropical! climatology!and!climate!teleconnections!at!mid>latitudes.!

Andrew&P.&Dobson& Professor! of! the! Department! of! Ecology! and! Evolutionary! Biology! at! Princeton! University! (USA).! Expert! on! climate! impact! over! ecosystems,!theoretical! ecology! and! biodiversity.!


18! ! Philip&M.&Fearnside&& Professor! in! the! Department! of! Ecology! at! the! National! Institute! for! Research! in! the! Amazon!(INPA)!in!Manaus!(Brazil),!and!member!of!the!Brazilian!Academy!of!Sciences.! He! has! been! awarded! Brazil’s! National! Ecology! Prize,! the! United! Nations! Global! 500! Award,! and! the! Conrad! Wessel! and! Chico! Mendes! prizes.! In! 2006,! Thomson>ISI! identified! him! as! the! world's! second! most>cited! author! on! the! subject! of! global! warming.!He!is!an!expert!on!deforestation’s!effects!on!the!carbon!cycle,!as!well!as!on! the!interactions!between!climate!change!and!the!socio>economic!system.!

Eduardo&Zorita&& Senior! Scientist! at! the! GKSS! Research! Center’s! Institute! of! Coastal! Research! (Germany).! He! is! a! renowned! expert! on! paleoclimate! science,! regional! climate! dynamics!and!climate!theory.!

Stephen&M.&Griffies&& Researcher!at!the!Geophysical!Fluid!Dynamics!Laboratory!of!the!National!Oceanic!and! Atmospheric! Administration! in! Princeton! (USA).! He! is! an! expert! on! the! climate! influence! of! ocean! dynamics,! on! the! parameterization! of! ocean! processes! in! climate! models,!as!well!as!on!the!study!of!climate!predictability!in!interannual!to!interdecadal! timeframes.!

Wallace&S.&Broecker&& Newberry! Professor! at! the! Lamont>Doherty! Earth! Observatory,! and! member! of! the! Department! of! Earth! and! Environmental! Sciences! at! Columbia! University,! New! York! (USA).!He!is!an!expert!on!climate!and!climate!change!modulation!of!ocean!processes! by! means! of! isotopes! and! on! reconstructions! of! past! ocean! circulation.! He! first! described!and!defined!thermohaline!circulation!and!the!conveyor!belt.!

Jürg&Luterbacher&& Associate!Professor,!Researcher!and!Project!Coordinator!of!the!Geography!Institute!at! the!University!of!Bern!(Switzerland).!He!is!an!expert!in!paleoclimatology,!past!climate! change,! climate! extremes! and! its! impacts! on! society! and! environment,! climate! dynamics!and!synoptic!climatology.!

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+" Organization(Chart( Once"IC3"is"fully"up"and"running,"it"will"consist"of"six"research"units"and"four"laboratories"working"as"a"link" to"external"stakeholders,"all"supported"by"a"cuttingZedge"management"system." By"the"end"of"2010,"three"units"and"two"labs"had"already"been"formally"established:" The!Climate!Dynamics!and!Impacts!Unit!(UDIC)! The!Climate!Forecasting!Unit!(CFU)! The!Climate!Change!Unit!(CCU),!currently!consisting!of!just!one!research!group!! Oceans!and!Atmosphere!Lab!(LAO)! Lab!of!Education,!Dissemination!and!Public!Outreach!(LEDIC)! *!Elements!in!lighter!colors!marked!with!an!asterisk!have!not!yet!been!established!

Scientific"Advisory"Board"

Board"of"Trustees"

Business"Board*"

Director" Office!of!the!Director*!

Internal!Scientific!Body!

Management"&" Administration"

Research"Units"

Laboratories"&" Technological"Units"

Climate!Dynamics!and! Impact!

Oceans!and!Atmosphere! Lab!

Finance!and! Accounting!

Climate!Forecasting!and! Regional!Models!

Lab!of!Education,! Dissemination!&!Public! Outreach!

General! Administration!

Climate!Change!

Manager"

Human!Resources! Project! Management!and! Fundraising! IT!

Biogeochemistry!and! Climate*! Paleoclimate!and!Modern! Observation!Modeling*! Model!Architecture!and! Computing!Development*!

Lab!of!Adaptation!and! Mitigation!Strategies*! Applications!and! External!Services! Development!Lab*!


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Conceptual(Chart( Research! units! in! IC3! are! designed! as! fundamental! academic! research! clusters! devoted! to! investigation!in!several!scientific!areas!within!their!corresponding!research!groups,!linked!by!the! unit’s!main!focus.! Laboratories,!on!the!other!hand,!are!multidisciplinary!departments!aimed!at! promoting,! enhancing! and! managing! any! of! the! Institution’s! non>purely! academic! external! relations,!such!as!those!with!stakeholders,!as!depicted!in!the!figure!below.! !

Policymakers,!Public!Bodies! and!NGOs!


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IC3(Member(Statistics( ! !

Research(and(Support(Staff( As!of!December!31,!2010,!IC3!comprised!

24! researchers!plus!14! technicians!and!support!staff.!There!were!9!

women!and!15!men!in!the!research!groups,!whereas!the!technicians!and!support!staff!teams!were!made!up!of!6! women! and! 8! men.! It! is! noteworthy! that! there! is! almost! equal! gender! distribution! at! IC3,! especially! when! considering!that!male!employees!still!frequently!predominate!in!the!research!sector.!

RESEARCHERS!

TECHNICIANS!&!SUPPORT!STAFF!


23! !

Nationality(( 37%! of! all! IC3! members! and! almost! HALF! of! all! researchers! were! of! non> Spanish! nationality,! originating! from! 12! different! countries! in! Europe,! the! Middle! East,! South! America,! East! As! of! December! 31,! 2010,!

Asia!and!South!Asia.!The!different!regions!of!origin!are!illustrated!in!the!maps!below.!!

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Age(Structure(

HALF!of!all!IC3!staff!were!younger!than!30!years!old!as!at!December!31,!2010.!! Almost!another!

THIRD! were!aged!between!30!and!39!years!old.!The!overall!average!age!was!about!33,!with!

the!youngest!team!member!24!years!old!and!the!oldest!56!years!old!at!that!time.!The!graphics!below!show!the! age!distribution!between!the!youngest!and!oldest!team!member!in!four!ranges,!reflecting!IC3’s!commitment!to! promoting!young!talent.!

Mobility( Between! its! foundation! in! mid>2008! and! December! 2010,! IC3! had! already! received! six! long>term! visitors! from! three! continents! and! renowned! institutions! such! as! Princeton! University,! the! University! of! Michigan,! the! University!of!California,!San!Diego,!the!University!of!Exeter!and!the!University!of!Reading,!in!addition!to!a!large! number!of!short>term!visitors!to!events!such!as!workshops!and!conferences.!! At!the!same!time!IC3!has!been!promoting!outgoing!mobility!ever!since!it!was!established,! undertaking!six!long> term! stays! in! five! different! countries.! These! numbers! are! expected! to! grow! enormously! in! future! as! the! Institution! becomes! consolidated! and! there! are! growing! opportunities! for! incoming! visitors! and! outgoing! IC3! members,!whether!through!new!projects,!conferences!or!mobility!grants.!


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IC3’s(Facilities

During!its!first!year,!the!IC3!was!located!at!a!site!belonging!to!the!University!of!Barcelona,!situated!in!the!former! Geography! and! History! library! at! no.! 2! Carrer! de! Baldiri! Reixach,! 08028! Barcelona,! managed! by! the! Barcelona! Science!Park!Foundation!(PCB).!However,!using!PCB!space!at!a!reasonable!price,!as!required!by!IC3,!subsequently! became!impossible!due!to!the!Institution’s!immediate!needs!to!grow.!Therefore,!the!fact!that!the!rental!prices!for! space!were!very!high!and!that!the!directorate!of!the!PCB!could!not!offer!any!possibility!of!enlarging!these!spaces! for! the! second! half! of! 2009! forced! the! Director! of! IC3! to! decide! to! look! for! a! new! location.! After! weeks! of! searching,! better! options! were! found! more! centrally! within! the! city! at! much! more! competitive! rental! prices,! between!40%!and!50%!less!than!the!former!site.!!

The! new! site! was! finally! found! in! Barcelona’s! new! 22@! district,! an! area! dedicated! to! accommodating! intensive! knowledge>based! activities.! The! chosen! site! was! one! of! the! city’s! historic! industrial! buildings,! called! “El! Cànem”,! located! at! no.! 203! Carrer! del! Doctor! Trueta,! close! to! the! Rambla! del! Poblenou.! It! used! to! be! a! textile! factory! and! had! been! a! Republican! prison! during! the! Spanish! Civil! War,! but! was! recently! renovated! for! new! uses.! IC3’s! research! has! been!the! first! activity!of!late! in!the!main!building!of! the!“El!Cànem”! complex,! which!has!four! stories.!Initially,!the! top!floor,!with!an!area! of! 380! square! meters! and! a! large! terrace,! has! been! used! for! IC3‘s! research!activities,!as!it!provides!sufficient!space!and!lots!of!light!for! the!workspace.!It!is!anticipated!that!in!the!near!future,!the!first!floor! will! host!a!supercomputer!that!will! enable!pioneering!simulations! in! climate!modeling!and!predictions!of!strategic!value.! The! interior! proposed!for!the! new! office! was!implemented!in!accordance!with! high! standards! of! sustainability,! using! recycled! materials!or! those! with!minimal!environmental! impact.! The! use! of! recycled! wood! for!separating! office!spaces,!meeting!rooms!and!the!scientific!staff’s!cubicles!is!particularly!noteworthy.!


27! !

The!current!IC3!headquarters!are!located!in!the!Poblenou!area!of!Barcelona,!at!the!old!textile!plant!known!as!“El! Cànem”,! or! “The! Canvas”.! Around! 1880,! the! Godó! family,! who! also! owned! famous! Catalan! newspaper! La' Vanguardia,!set!up!a!jute!mill!at!a!site!on!Carrer!de!Ramón!Turró,!then!called!Carrer!Enna.!This!factory!was!known! as!“Els!Sacs”,!or!“The!Bags”,!but!just!a!short!while!later,!canvas!become!the!most!commonly!used!fiber!and!the! majority!of!the!local!people!began!calling!the!factory!“El!Cànem”.! For! many! years! it!was! the!only!textile!factory! working!with! canvas!in!Spain,!thus! making!it! the! most!important! one.! At! its! peak,! it! provided! work! for! at! least! 2,000! employees,! most! of! them! women! and! children.! Women! worked!under!terrible!conditions!because!of!the!dust!emitted!by!the!canvas.!Women!who!worked!at!“El!Cànem”! were!called!“bedbugs”!because!of!the!smell!of!the!canvas.!Even!renowned!writer!Xavier!Berenguer!wrote!about! the!women’s!tough!working!conditions,!and!since!1999!there!has!a!plaque!on!the!Rambla!del!Poblenou!in!their! memory.! During! the! week! known! as! the! “Tragic! Week”! (end! of! July! 1909),! workers! from! Poblenou! burned! down! the! Workers’!Foundation!next!to!the!Godós’!factory.!That!is!when!its!owner!decided!to!hand!over!a!plot!of!land!near! the!textile!mill!to!the!Civil!Guard!police!force!so!they!could!watch!over!the!workers.!!

The! Godós’! factory! was! collectivized! during! the! Civil! War,! as! a! large! number! of! its! workers! were! anarchists.! Despite! the! improvements!made! by! some!companies! due!to! collectivization,! the! return! of! the! owners! of! “El! Cànem”! meant! many! workers! were!fired!and!reported!to!the!Franco!regime.! During! the! post>war! period,! around! 1937,! the! Godós! decided! to! hand! over! the! old! “El! Cànem”! factory! facilities! to! the! Franco! regime,! and! the! textile! mill! was! used! for! nearly! four! years! as! a! prison! for! Republicans,! reminiscent! of! a! concentration! camp.! Meanwhile,! the! textile! activity! continued! in! the! new! facilities,! a! factory!that!later!became!the!new!print!works!for!the!newspaper.!!

The&factory&was&finally&closed&in&the&1960s,&but&recently&these&facilities&with&such&an& eventful& past& have& been& used& to& accommodate& a& new& organization,& both& giving& a& new&life&and&purpose&to&the&building&and&providing&space&for&the&growing&IC3.&&


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4 Financial(Information( !

Financial(Evolution(

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Funding( IC3’s! funding! is! reliant! on! two! main! sources:! resources! provided! by! the! Trustees! and! competitive& funding.! In! 2008,!the!year!IC3!was!founded,!the!first!base!funding!from!the!Trustees!was!received!by!the!end!of!the!year.!The! initial! payment! plus! the! base! funding! for! the! second! year! amounted! to! a! total! of! €750,000! provided! by! the! Trustees.!An!investment!two!times!greater!was!provided!by!the!EU!through!the!ERDF,!and!the!Institute!was!able! to!attract!more!than!one!million!euros!from!competitive!sources!by!the!end!of!2009.!In!2010!the!structural!funds! from!Trustees!decreased!to!€712,000,!but!there!was!a!great!increase!in!competitive!funding.!Due!to!the!appeal!of! the! large>scale! ClimaDat! project,! which! will! last! five! years! and! is! funded! by! ”la! Caixa”! Welfare! Projects,! competitive!funding!has!become!the!major!source!of!resources!for!IC3.!For!every!euro!provided!by!the!Trustees!in! 2010,!nine!euros!could!be!gained!in!competitive!funding.!However,!project!funds!are!not!fully!deposited!during! the!year!of!approval,!rather!they!come!into!effect!over!several!years.!! ! Considering! the! total! amount! of! competitive! resources,! the! resources! provided!by!”la!Caixa”!Welfare!Projects! represent! more! than! 75%.! The! second! largest! source! of! funding! is! in! projects! funded! by! the! European! Commission,! especially!in!the!context!of!the!Seventh! Framework! Programme! (FP7).! Projects! approved! by! the! Ministry! of! Science! and! Innovation! represent! a! similar! share! in! the! overall! competitive! funding.! Finally,! resources! provided! by! La! Marató! de! TV3! Foundation! for! the! Kawasaki! Disease! project! and! a! one> year! scholarship! provided! by! the! MAPFRE! Foundation! rounds! off! IC3’s! success! in! attracting! competitive! funding! despite! being! founded! only! recently.!


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Expenditure( (

With! the! formal! foundation! of! IC3! in! mid> 2008! and! its! headquarters! located! in! a! University! of! Barcelona! building,! expenditure! in! that! year! mainly! resulted! from! rent! on! the! building! and! personnel! costs.!! Expenditure! increased! significantly! in! 2009! due! to! expansion! of! the! team! both! in! research! and! support! staff,! in! addition! to! moving!to!the!new!headquarters!in!the!22@! district.! Expenditure! on! personnel! made! up! almost! two>thirds! of! the! overall! expenses,! followed!by!rental!fees,!which!accounted!for! roughly!another!ten!percent.! This!trend!continued!in!2010,! where! overall! expenditure! more! than! doubled,! again! due! to! the! planned! growth! of! the! Institute.! Personnel! costs! along! with! rental! fees! add! up! to! more! than! one! million! euros,! representing! more! than! 70%! of! the! overall! expenditure.!!


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Competitive(Funding(and(Projects( As! mentioned! previously,! the! resources! provided! as! a! result! of! competitive! projects! have! represented! an! important!source!of!financial!means!for!IC3!ever!since!its!founding.!In!2009,!the!most!important!source!of!funding! was!the!Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!which!contributed!more!than!60%!to!the!overall!competitive!funding! received! that! year.! Privately! funded! projects! in! 2010! included! the! ClimaDat! project,! supported! by! ”la! Caixa”! Welfare! Projects,! and! the! Kawasaki! Disease! project! supported! by! La! Marató! de! TV3! Foundation.! Therefore,! in! 2010! private! funds! represented! 62%! of! all! competitive! funds,! rounded! off! by! the! resources! provided! by! the! European! Commission! and! the! Ministry! of! Science! and! Innovation.! The! growing! diversification! of! sources! of! competitive! funding! is! a! result! of! IC3’s! institutional! growth,! based! on! attracting! renowned! scientists! and! the! ability!to!create!research!projects!that!show!real!potential.! As!illustrated!in!the!graphic!below,!there!is!still!a!large!amount!of!competitive!funding!awaiting!transfer!due!to! the!fact!that!most!projects!lat!more!than!one!year.!


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7&European&funded&projects& 4!Nationally!funded!projects! 4!Privately!funded!projects! 1!Regional!grant!for!support! personnel!

3!European!funded!projects! 7!Nationally!funded!projects! 6!Regionally!funded!projects! 4!Privately!funded!projects!

IC3’s!success!rate!in!attracting!competitive!projects!is!almost!50%,!which!is!especially!noteworthy!considering!the! Institute!was!only!recently!established.!Even!more!impressive!is!the!success!rate!of!70%!in!large>scale!European! projects,! which! enables! the! Institute! to! play! an! important! role! in! seven! projects! within! the! European! Commission’s!Seventh!Framework!Programme!(FP7)!and!INTERREG:!FLUXPYR,!Viroclime,!QWeCI,!CLIM>RUN,!Tree! Rings!and!Climate,!DENFREE!and!INCLIDA.!! Nationally,!the!Institute!obtained!a!prestigious!Ramón!y!Cajal!research!scholarship!providing!funding!for!five!years! in!addition!to!three!projects:!MED!3D,!MIDAS>6!and!RUCSS.! On! the! private! scale,! the! project! involving! the! greatest! amount! of! financial! resources! is! ClimaDat,! a! large>scale! environmental!research!and!infrastructure!project!sponsored!by!”la!Caixa”!Welfare!Projects,!covering!the!whole! Iberian!Peninsula!plus!the!Balearic!and!Canary!Islands.!It!is!followed!by!another!large!scale>project!dealing!with! Kawasaki! Disease.! Another! two! smaller>scale! projects! have! been! approved! and! are! being! supported! by! the! MAPFRE!Foundation!and!CatalunyaCaixa’s!Social!Projects.!

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! ! !

5 Highlights( ! !

Getting(Ahead(of(El(Niño( Knowledge"about"the"causes"of"El"Niño"(EN)"episodes"is"limited"and,"as"a"result,"the"accuracy"of"predictions"is" still" far" from" the" inherent" limits" of" predictability," especially" in" terms" of" long" lead" times." IC3" scientists" are" presenting"new"findings"that"extend"the"EN"predictability"window"to"almost"two"years,"which"would"thus"help" in"decreasing"the"economic"cost"of"its"worldwide"impact."" ! What&is&El&Niño&Southern&Oscillation?& El!Niño!Southern!Oscillation!(ENSO)!is!a!climate!anomaly!that!occurs!across!the!Pacific.!It!consists!of!changes!in! the!pattern!of!cold!air!mass!movements!that!cause!a!relay!in!ocean!current!kinetics.!As!a!result,!South!American! waters! become! warmer,! and! this! has! significant! consequences! around! the! globe,! basically! affecting! South! America,! Indonesia! and! Australia.! El! Niño! also! affects! other! continents! and! countries,! including! Spain,! causing! changes! in! atmospheric! circulation! and! oceanic! temperature.! The! La! Niña! phenomenon,! which! happens! when! waters!get!colder!than!usual,!occurs!less!frequently.! This!climate!phenomenon!begins!in!the!tropical!Pacific!Ocean!and!is!characterized!by!variations!in!the!sea!surface! temperature! between! different! locations.! This! causes! a! disruption! in! the! direction! and! speed! of! winds! that! spreads! to! the! rainy! areas! of! tropical! regions.! ENSO! causes! extreme! weather,! such! as! floods! and! droughts,! in! many!parts!of!the!world.! This! phenomenon! is! not! fully! predictable,! although! it! is! easier! to! forecast! at! certain! times! of! year! than! others.! This!is!known!as!the!“spring!barrier”,!because!it!is!difficult!to!predict!in!January!to!April!how!things!will!develop! during!the!following!March!to!June,!whereas!the!evolution!of!episodes!occurring!between!April!and!June!(when!El! Niño!usually!develops)!is!easier!to!predict.!On!average,!ENSO!occurs!once! every!four!years!and!usually! lasts!for! about!18!months!after!it!begins.! In! a! recent! study! published! in! Journal' of' Climate,! Joan! Ballester! and! colleagues! investigated! primary! processes! related!to!the!onset!of!El!Niño!(EN)!episodes.!The!main!tracer!discovered!in!the!study!is!called!the!RossBell!(RB)! dipole!by!IC3!scientists.!Results!obtained!showed!the!occurrence!of!a!sea>surface!temperature!(SST)!dipole!in!the! southern!high>latitude!Pacific,!with!an!area!of!positive!SST!anomalies!developing!near!the!Ross!Sea!and!a!cold!SST! area!in!front!of!the!Bellingshausen!Sea,!near!the!Drake!Passage.!This!dipole!is!a!new!tracer!of!El!Niño,!the!first!to! be!located!in!the!extratropics,!and!it!always!appears!nine!months!before!the!maximum!peak!of!El!Niño.!! Results!also!show!that!the!RossBell!dipole!is!in!turn!linked!to!other!warm!SST!anomaly!generated!in!the!western! tropical! Pacific! (WPAC),! 12! to! 15! months! before! the! peak! in! RossBell! dipole.! Alterations! in! the! WPAC! region! generate! an! anomalous! wave! train! extending! eastward! and! poleward! in! the! Southern! Hemisphere.! Changes! in! circulation!lead!to!warm!SST!anomalies!in!the!central!tropical!Pacific,!which!are!then!strengthened!by!suppressed! equatorial! easterlies.! Convection! thus! starts! to! move! to! the! central! Pacific! and! the! Bjerknes! feedback! accumulates!exponentially,!leading!to!the!development!of!El!Niño.!!


36! ! The&first&step&toward&better&ENSO&understanding&and&forecasting&& Overall,!this!study!lays!the!foundation!for!extending!the!El!Niño!predictability!window!to!nearly!two!years,!thus! effectively! breaking! the! spring! barrier.! Results! also! show! processes! responsible! for! generating! the! El! Niño! phenomenon! for! the! first! time,! and! how! main! low>frequency! features! develop! in! the! interaction! between! the! tropical!and!southern!extratropical!Pacific!during!the!onset!of!recent!eastward!propagating!EN!episodes,! which! has!occurred!since!the!Pacific!regime!shift!in!the!late!seventies.!!

Spatial! coefficients! of! the! first! two! leading! principal! components! of! sea! surface! temperature! anomalies! in! the! southern! high> latitude!Pacific!Ocean.!The!second!mode!(panel!a)!corresponds!to!the!RossBell!dipole,!and!the!first!component!(panel!b)!to!the! local!teleconnection!effect!of!El!Niño!episodes!nine!months!later.!

Why&this&result&had&not&been&found&earlier& At!present,!purely!statistical,!hybrid!and!fully!physical!coupled!models!for!ENSO!predictability!show!similar!skills,! which! seem! to! have! reached! a! plateau! at! moderate! predictability! levels.! Until! this! study,! climate! predictability! models! were! affected! by! ENSO! phenomenon! noise,! so! few! other! climate! phenomena! could! be! found.! In! this! study,! the! variability! produced! by! ENSO! has! been! filtered.! This! then! allowed! IC3! scientists! lo! look! for! climatic! structures!that!occur!in!a!coherent!and!consistent!way!before!one!of!the!ENSO!peaks.!!

Anomalies!on!the!surface!sea!water!temperature!in!different!regions!of!the!study,!showing!the!RossBell!dipole!compared!to!the!El! Niño!peak!(black!line)!nine!months!in!advance.!The!RossBell!dipole!is!produced!when!there!is!a!maximum!distance!between!the!peak! in! temperature! evolution! in! the! Ross! Sea! (red! line),! and! the! decrease! in! the! evolution! of! the! Bellingshausen! Sea! (blue! line),! corresponding!at!lag!0.!WPAC!evolution!is!shown!in!gray,!with!a!peak!between!18>24!months!before!the!highest!peak!of!El!Niño.! Reference:!J.!Ballester,!M.A.!Rodríguez>Arias,!X.Rodó.!2010.!“A!New!Extratropical!Tracer!Describing!the!Role!of!the!Western!Pacific!in! the!Onset!of!El!Nino:!Implications!for!ENSO!Understanding!and!Forecasting.”!Journal'of'Climate,!DOI.10.1175/2010JCLI3619.1!


37! !

Complex(Responses(of(Amazonian(Fire(to(Climate Will&the&Amazon&Rainforest&survive&climate&change?& Part"of"the"answer"lies"in"a"better"understanding"of"fire"dynamics"in"this"region."An"international"team"led"by"a" scientist"from"IC3"developed"a"new"framework"for"fire"dynamics"in"tropical"rainforests"and"savannas"and"their" interaction" with" climate." This" contribution," based" on" complex" systems" theory," was" published" in" the" highestZ impact"ecology"journal." Consider! the! ecological,! social! and! climatic! consequences! of! losing! a! rainforest! area! much! larger! than! the! European!Union.!This!is!what!is!at!stake!in!the!Amazon!Rainforest!if!greenhouse!gas!emissions!remain!unchecked.! Some!models!predict!that,!within!the!current!century,!the!Amazon!climate!will!be!so!warm!and!dry!that!most!of! the!rainforest!will!be!destined!for!a!slow,!long>term!die>back.!These!models!might!be!too!pessimistic!about!the! evolution!of!drought!in!the!area!and!the!resistance!of!rainforests.!However,!they!are!too!optimistic!in!that!they! ignore!fire,!which!could!largely!shorten!the!timeframe!for!forest!loss,!if!such!loss!is!to!take!place.! This!and!other!topics!were!addressed!by!Salvador!Pueyo!(IC3)!and!scientists!at!the!National!Institute!for!Research! in!the!Amazon!(Brazil)!and!the!NGO!Herencia!(Bolivia),!in!a!paper!published!in!the!journal!Ecology'Letters!(Pueyo! et!al.!2010).! When! environmental! conditions! are! not! extreme,! the! damp! microclimate! of! tropical! rainforests! inhibits! the! propagation! of! fire! (unless! the! forest! has! been! disturbed! previously! or! is! atypical! in! some! other! respect).! However,! the! paper! gives! evidence! that,! at! a! landscape! scale,! there! is! a! critical! level! of! drought! where! fires! change! abruptly! from! non>existent! to! non>stoppable.! As! a! corollary,! a! future! series! of! transitions! involving! stepwise!forest!losses!is!more!likely!than!a!gradual!die>back.! In! tropical! savannas,! fire! is! frequent! and! does! not! seem! to! display! such! thresholds.! However,! the! paper! shows! that! it! displays! some! other! intriguing! features! previously! observed! in! many! other! types! of! catastrophic! events:! geological,!climatic,!ecological,!epidemiological!and!even!socio>economic.!Our!observations!in!this!biome!provide! some!clues!for!understanding!catastrophic!events!in!general!and!the!ways!that!they!are!affected!by!climate.!

Š!NASA!/!Visible!Earth!

Š!Greenpeace!/!Daniel!BÊltra!


38! !

Seabirds'(Shifting(Movement(Patterns(Can(be(Seen( on(a(Regional(Scale(( Seabirds’&movement&patterns&tied&to&what&fishermen&toss&away& Humans! and! human! activities! have! clearly! altered! the! Earth's! landscape! and! oceans! in! countless! ways,! often! to! the! detriment! of! other! plants! and! animals.! However,!a!new!report!published!online!on!January!28th!in!Current'Biology,!a!Cell! Press! publication,! shows! just! what! a! tangled! food! web! we! have! woven.! Two! species! of! Mediterranean! seabirds! change! their! every! move! based! on! the! activities!of!local!fisheries!and,!in!particular,!the!fish!that!people!throw!away.! "We!show!that!human!activities!in!the!natural!environment!can!promote!critical! transitions!in!the!spreading!properties!of!foraging!animals!by!locally!changing!the! predictability! and! availability! of! their! resources,"! said! Frederic! Bartumeus! of! Princeton!University! and!the! Catalan!Institute!of!Climate!Sciences!in!Spain.!"Our! study!suggests!an!elementary!but!often!disregarded!connection!between!human! local!resource!exploitation!and!global!movement!patterns!of!organisms."! The! findings! may! have! important! implications! for! conservation! biology! and! the! study! of! invasive! species,! the! researchers! said.! The! work! also! provides! a! solid! statistical!framework!for!quantifying!movement!patterns!across!ecological!scales,! which!can!now!be!applied!to!other!species!and!other!circumstances.! Bartumeus'! team! took! advantage! of! existing! satellite! data! on! Cory's! shearwater! and! Balearic! shearwater,! which! tracked! the! seabirds'! movement! over! multiple! foraging! trips.! Each! trip! typically! lasts! less! than! two! days! and! covers! distances! anywhere! from!10!to!1,000!kilometers.! Because!the!fisheries!do!not! operate! on! holidays! and! weekends,! the! researchers! were! able! to! characterize! the! birds'! activities!in!the!presence!and!in!the!absence!of!the!fisheries'!trawling!activities.! When! the! fisheries! do! not! operate,! seabirds! essentially! combine! local! searching! with!very!large!traveling!distances,!Bartumeus!explained.!Such!a!multiscale!search! pattern!generates!what!he!calls!“superdiffusive!movement!properties”,!meaning! that!the!birds!spread!out!from!one!another!at!a!rate!that!accelerates!over!time.! "Such! a! movement! pattern! allows! for! efficient! explorations! when! the! birds! are! looking!for!their!natural!prey!of!small!fish!and!squid,!which!are!highly!mobile!and! unpredictably!distributed!in!space!and!time,"!he!said.! In! contrast,! when! fishermen! are! discarding! fish,! seabirds! perform!local! searches! around!the!boats,!which!act!as!an!"attracting!force."!As!a!result!of!such!confined! movement,!the!spreading!of!scavenging!seabirds!in!the!seascape!decelerates!with! time,! and! movement! patterns! involve! well>defined! spatial! scales! related! to! the! fishery!activity.! In! a! nutshell,! Bartumeus! says,! "Fishery! activities! impact! the! foraging! ecology! of! seabirds! at!much! larger! spatiotemporal!scales!than!one!might!expect!intuitively.! The! macroscopic! spreading! properties! of! seabirds! through! the! seascape! are! directly!influenced!by!the!presence!of!fishermen's!boats!discarding!fish."! ©!Franziska!Ewald!de!Aceves!


39! !

ECREarth(ESM( ! EC5Earth&ESM:&A&new&model&for&a&better&understanding&of&climate&& Climate!change!has!turned!into!one!of!the!most!relevant!environmental!concerns.!However,!we!are!still!far!from! understanding! climate! change! processes! and! its! impacts.! That! is! why! the! development! of! future! weather! phenomena! is! of! vital! importance! to! direct! climate! adaptation! measures.! The! models! currently! available! have! been! a!scientific! success,!but! the! European! Centre! for!Medium>Range! Weather! Forecasts! (ECMWF)! is! aware! of! the!need!for!a!new!generation!of!ESM!(Earth!System!Models)!suited!to!delivering!climate!information!that!can!be! used!for!regional!applications!and!developing!new!climate!adaptation!strategies.!The!ECMWF!weather!prediction! model!was!chosen!as!a!starting!point,!and!a!large!number!of!ECMWF!member!states!have!started!to!develop!a! common!ESM,!known!as!EC>Earth.!! The!EC>Earth!consortium!brings!together!22!research!institutions!from!ten!European!countries!to!collaborate!in! the!development!of!a!new!Earth!System!Model,!with!the!aim!of!building!a!fully!coupled!Atmosphere>Ocean>Land> Biosphere! model,! usable! for! seasonal! to! decadal! climate! prediction! and! climate! projections.! More! specifically,! three!scientific!and!practical!common!goals!have!been!identified:! •

Investigating!Earth!system!feedbacks;!

Studying!interannual!to!multi>decadal!climate!fluctuations!and!predictability;!

Developing!an!advanced!modeling!tool!for!creating!climate!scenarios.!

! IC3’s!Climate!Forecasting!Unit!(CFU)!has!extensive!experience!in!climate!modeling!prediction,!and!is!participating! in!the!development!of!the!EC>Earth!ESM!along!with!the!following!institutions:! Netherlands& KNMI,!Wageningen!University,!Utrecht!University,!IMAU,!Vrije!University! Denmark& DMI! Portugal& Institute!of!Meteorology!(Instituto!de!Meteorologia)!CGUL/IDL!University!of!Lisbon! Belgium& Unité!ASTR! Ireland&

©!EC>Earth!

Met!Éireann,!University!College!Dublin,!ICHEC! Italy& ICTP! Sweden& Swedish!Meteogological!Institute,!Lund!University,!IRV! Spain& IC3,!BSC,!INM!

PRESENT&

&

FUTURE&


40! !

Francisco(DoblasRReyes,(Lead(Author(of(IPCC(( ! IC3&member&Francisco&J.&Doblas5Reyes&selected&as&a&lead&author&by&the&IPCC&& The"IPCC"report"will"be"the"key"document"for"making"future"decisions"about"how"to"mitigate"climate"change"at" international" level." The" Fifth" Assessment" Report" (AR5)" will" be" finished" in" 2014" and" 831" experts" around" the" world" are" involved"in" writing" the" report."Francisco" J." DoblasZReyes," who" leads" an" IC3" research" unit," has"been" selected"as"one"of"these"experts."" The!Fifth!Assessment!Report!(AR5)!will!consist!of!three!Working!Group!(WG)!reports!and!a!Synthesis!Report,!to! be!completed!in!2013/2014:! •

WG!I:!The!Physical!Science!Basis!>!mid>September!2013!

WG!II:!Impacts,!Adaptation!and!Vulnerability!>!mid>March!2014!

WG!III:!Mitigation!of!Climate!Change!>!early!April!2014!

AR5!Synthesis!Report!(SYR)!>!October!2014!

! In!total!there!are!13!Spanish!scientists!contributing!to!this!report.!Francisco!J.!Doblas>Reyes!is!participating!in!the! first! Working! Group! (The! Physical! Science! Basis)! as! a! lead! author.! His! contributions! will! focus! on! the! chapters! dealing!with!paleoclimatology!and!climate!change!predictability!and!projection.!! Francisco!J.!Doblas>Reyes!is!the!head!of!the!Climate!Forecast!Unit!(CFU).!His!main!research!interests!are!climate! variability!and!climate!prediction,!ranging!from!one!month!to!several!years.!Dr.!Doblas>Reyes’!inclusion!as!one!of! the! AR5!specialists! provides! significant! evidence! of! the! excellence! and! quality! of!IC3! research,! and! represents! a! significant!step!in!IC3’s!growth.! " " What&is&the&IPCC&and&why&is&it&so&important?& The! Intergovernmental! Panel! on! Climate! Change! (IPCC)! is! a! scientific! intergovernmental! body! responsible! for! reviewing! and! assessing! the! most! recent! scientific,! technical! and! socio>economic! information! produced! worldwide! that! is! relevant! for! the! understanding! of! climate! change.! It! is! open! to! all! member! countries! of! the! United!Nations!(UN)!and!World!Meteorological!Organization!(WMO).!! Thousands!of!scientists!from!all!over!the!world!contribute!to!the!IPCC’s!work!on!a!voluntary!basis.!Review!is!an! essential! part! of! the! IPCC! process,! in! order! to! ensure! an! objective! and! complete! assessment! of! current! information.!The!IPCC!aims!to!reflect!a!range!of!views!and!expertise.!This!scientific!and!intergovernmental!nature! enhances!the!IPCC,!providing!rigorous!and!balanced!scientific!information!to!government!decision!makers.!! One! of! the! IPCC’s! main! activities! involves! publishing! special! reports! called! Assessment! Reports! (AR)! on! topics! related! to! implementation! of! the! UN! Framework! Convention! on! Climate! Change! (UNFCCC).! Participating! governments!acknowledge!the!authority!of!the! AR’s!scientific! content,! and!this! report!is!used!to!consider!what! can! be! done! to! reduce! global! warming! at! a! worldwide! level.! The! work! of! the! organization! is! therefore! policy> relevant!and!yet!policy>neutral,!but!never!policy>prescriptive.! Renowned!agreements!such!as!the!Kyoto!Protocol!were!signed!by!many!countries!as!a!result!of!the!IPCC’s!work.! While!the!UNFCCC!encouraged!industrialized!countries!to!stabilize!greenhouse!gas!(GHG)!emissions,!this!kind!of! protocol!commits!them!to!doing!so.!Such!protocols!are!an!extraordinary!landmark!toward!a!truly!global!emission! reduction!regime!that!will!stabilize!GHG!emissions.!"


41! !

High(Performance(Computing(Cluster((ITHACA)(( In! the! context! of! climate! sciences! and! computing! sciences,! the! cutting>edge! research! issue! is! exploring! climate! change,!its!impacts!and!other!relevant!phenomena!in!an!optimum!time!scale!by!using!advanced!simulation!and! modeling! tools! and! techniques.! Although! the! processing! speed! of! desktop/server! computers! has! improved! dramatically! in! recent! years,! the! continuous! increase! in! the! scientific! community’s! computing! needs! has! motivated!the!use!of!a!High!Performance!Computing!(HPC)!cluster!at!IC3!called!ITHACA.!! The!IC3!cluster!is!made!of!48!homogeneous!server!blades.!Each!server!blade!has!two!quad>core!processors,!48!GB! of!main!memory,!146!GB!of!disk!space!and!fast!network!interconnect!(InfiniBand).!In!order!to!share!data!(model! code,! input! data! and! output! data)! among! computing! nodes,! there! is! an! I/O! node! made! up! of! 48! disks! of! 1! TB! each.! In! short,! the! computing! cluster! has! 384! cores,! 8.81! TB! virtual! memory! (RAM)! and! 55! TB! of! shared! disk! capacity.!Moreover,!the!cluster!has!97.2!TB!tape!backup!capacity.!The!IC3!computing!cluster!is!installed!within!a! data! center! of! 17!square! meters,! with! low! ceilings! to! keep! unused! spaces! cool,! which! is! 100%! expandable! and! transferable!to!another!99%!site.!! ! Why&does&IC3&need&a&supercomputer?& The! use! of! High! Performance! Computing! (HPC)! Cluster! has! been! a! necessary! requisite! due! to! the! reasons! described!in!the!first!paragraph!above.!! IC3’s! computing! cluster! runs! the! resident! climate! models,! namely! the! EC>Earth! Earth! System! Model! (http://ecearth.knmi.nl),! the! Regional! Ocean! Modeling! System! (ROMS)! from! Rutgers! University! and! the! GFDL! climate! model.! It! also! serves! as! platform! for! developing! the! regional!seasonal!to! decadal! multimodel! ensemble! climate!prediction!system!to!be!implemented!by!the!IC3’s!unit!for!climate!prediction,!led!by!Dr.!Doblas>Reyes.! The!Oceanography!and!Climate!Dynamics!group!within!the!Climate!Dynamics!and!Impact!Unit!(UDIC)!is!interested! in! oceanic! processes! that! play! a! role! in! climate.! One! of! the! main! tools! used! for! this! are! numerical! models! for! oceans,!along!with!satellite!observations.!A!general!circulation!model!for!the!Mediterranean!will!run!on!this!high! performance! computing! system! in! 2011,! both! in! order! to! understand! how! the! ocean! works! and! to! improve! climate!predictions.!


42! !

New(IC3(Headquarters(in(Poblenou( IC3’s&new&headquarters&& IC3" has" followed" an" environmentally" responsible" philosophy" in" setting" up" its" new" headquarters." It" has" demonstrated" that" it" is" possible" to" design" a" space" that" takes" care" of" the" people" who" will" use" it," while" also" taking"care"of"the"environment." Up!until!September!2009,!IC3!was!located!at!the!Barcelona!Science!Park!(PCB),!but!at!the!end!of!June!2009!IC3’s! Director!and!management!decided!to!start!looking!for!a!new!location.!This!decision!was!mainly!due!to!the!need! to!find!new!premises!with!lower!rent!costs!and!a!new!location!that!better!fit!IC3’s!strategic!plan.!That!is!why!IC3! looked! for! a! place! close! to! the! sea! (sea>related! activities! will! be! very! intense! in! future)! and! also! close! to! the! Mediterranean! Center! for! Marine! and! Environmental! Research (CMIMA)! a! Spanish! National! Research! Council! (CSIC)!center!that!is!the!only!research!institution!in!the!area!that!undertakes!complementary!research!activities.! The!22@!district!in!the!Poblenou!area!of!Barcelona!was!finally!chosen!for!the!new!IC3!headquarters,!as!it!fulfilled! all!the!desired!requirements;!IC3!is!now!located!in!a!former!canvas!factory!in!the!22@!district.! The!conceptual!design!for!the!new!office!was!carried!out!in!summer!2009,!following!a!study!(Tompkins!report)!on! the!Tyndall!Centre,!which!described!the!requirements!for!an!interdisciplinary!research!institution.!In!accordance! with!this!study,!IC3!built!a!series!of!“caves”!and!a!common!office!layout!that!allows!the!scientists!to!focus!on!their! work!without!having!external!distractions.!In!order!to!facilitate!researcher!interaction,!there!are!seminar!rooms! and!comfortable!interactive!spaces!such!as!a!common!office,!a!huge!terrace!and!a!leisure!area!with!a!ping>pong! table!and!soccer!goals.!All"these"facilities"were"built"bearing"in"mind"the"people"who"were"going"to"work"there," trying"to"create"accessible"and"comfortable"spaces"where"people"can"meet,"interact"and"be"creative."

!


43! ! Furthermore," IC3’s" challenge" was" to" create" a" headquarters" that" respects" the" environment.! Suppliers! were! selected! according! to! sustainability,! price! and! flexibility! criteria! and! the! use! of! recycled! material,! while! avoiding! contaminating! material,! was! emphasized.! For! example,! OSB! (oriented! strand! board)! wood! was! used! to! separate! different!work!areas,!avoiding!the! use! of!aluminum,!a!material!often!used!in!offices.! OSB!wood! is!an! engineered! wood! product!made!by! layering!strands!(flakes)! of!wood! in!specific!orientations,!thus!becoming!a! solid!material.! This! is! a! recycled! product,! and! the! other! wood! used! to! join! the! OSB! panels! together! comes! from! sustainably> managed! forests! (belonging! to! FSC! or! PEPC! operations).! Furthermore,! the! furniture! is! made! with! wood! from! sustainable!origins,!and!even!the!fitted!carpet!contains!a!percentage!of!recycled!material.!

Why&a&sustainable&building&for&IC3?&

From&sketch‌&

IC3& activity:! As! a! climate! research! center! studying! the! problems! resulting! from! anthropogenic! climate! change,! a! sustainable! building!design!is!a!MUST.!! Visibility:& One! of! the! main! problems! of! research!is!how!to!reach!the!public.!Research! usually! appears! in! the! media! only! as! expert! opinions! regarding! problems! that! raise! social! alarm,! or! as! anecdotal! news! about! scientific! results.! As! a! result,! the! public! lacks! clear! understanding! of! what! research! is.! A! sustainable! building! is! something!different.! It! is! a! structure! that! attracts! the! people.! It! becomes! something! remarkable! that! people! identify!with!the!institution.!If,!as!planned,!we! open! the! building! to! visitors,! we!can!then!go! further! in! this! direction.! The! more! straightforward! option! is! to! have! an! educational! tour! to! show! both! the! building! and! the! research! activities! in! it.! The! more! elaborate! possibility! is! to! link! IC3! to! a! museum,! a! climate! change! and/or! sustainability! museum! for! instance.! In! that! case,! both! institutions! will! share! the! same! building! and! provide! services! to! each! other.! Obviously! not! only! IC3! will! benefit! from! the! visibility!provided!by!the!sustainable!building,! but!all!the!supporting!institutions!will!as!well.! As! a! result,! the! task! to! find! sponsors! and! patrons!will!also!be!much!easier.!

‌to&reality.&

Low& operational& cost:! It! is! obviously! more! expensive!to!build!a!sustainable!building!than! a! traditional! building,! but! in! a! context! of! increasing! energy! and! water! cost,! having! a! building!with!no!net!energy!consumption!and! very! low!water! consumption!will! significantly! reduce!operational!costs.!!


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EUROBRISA( ! Hosting&an&international&workshop&on&climate&research&in&Barcelona& The" Third" EUROBRISA" Final" Workshop" was" held" in" Barcelona" from" December" 13Z16," 2010." This" event" was" organized"by"IC3"and"brought"different"climate"research"institutions"together." The! aim! of! EUROBRISA! (EUROZBRazilian! Initiative! for! Improving! South! American! Seasonal! Forecast)! was! to! improve!seasonal!forecasts!in!South!America,!a!region!where!there!is!seasonal!forecast!skill!and!useful!value.!This! project!ended!last!year!and!involved!participation!from!the!following!partners:!CPTEC!(Brazil),!ECMWF!(European! Union),!INMET!(Brazil),!Meteo!France!(France),!Met!Office!(UK),!USP!(Brazil)!and!the!University!of!Exeter!(UK).!! EUROBRISA!organized!three!workshops!on!this!issue.!This!kind!of!workshop!provides!an!excellent!opportunity!for! scientist! partners! to! explore! and! share! research! findings! and! discuss! new! ideas.! Francisco! J.! Doblas>Reyes! collaborated! with! the! EUROBRISA! project! before! joining! IC3! and! becoming! the! head! of! the! Climate! Forecasting! Unit.!This!allowed!IC3!to!organize!the!event!for!the!final!workshop,!and!IC3,!always!looking!to!improve!its!research! quality!and!being!open>minded!about!exploring!new!fields,!was!pleased!to!be!able!to!collaborate.! The! workshop’s! aims! were!to! summarize!project! research!highlights! (August! 2009>December!2010)! and!discuss! final! plans! and! ideas!for! future! collaboration!and! wider!dissemination!of! project!highlights! to! key! stakeholders.! During! the! workshop,! Xavier" Rodó,! IC3's! Director,! Francisco" J." DoblasZReyes,! head! of! IC3’s! Climate! Forecasting! Unit,!and!Luis"Rodrigues,!IC3's!Ph.D.!student,!participated!as!speakers!in!several!symposia!in!the!final!EUROBRISA! workshop."" !


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Visit(from(Former(President(of(Catalonia(José(Montilla( IC3’s&first&top&level&institutional&visit& The" former" president" of" the" Catalan" Regional" Government," the" Rt." Hon." José" Montilla," visited" the" IC3's" new" headquarters"located"in"the"22@"district." In!November!2009,!the!Rt.!Hon.!José!Montilla!visited!IC3!in!the!first!institutional!visit!since!it!opened!in!2008.!IC3's! Director,! Xavier! Rodó,! showed! the! then! president! around! the! new! headquarters,! located! in! a! former! canvas! factory!in!the!center!of! Poblenou.! Former! president! Montilla’s!visit! to! IC3!coincided! with! Barcelona!hosting!the! 2009!Climate!Change!Conference.!This!event,!held!prior!to!the!Copenhagen!Summit,!brought!together!more!than! 4,000!representatives!from!180!countries.! 3 ! An&important&recognition&of&IC ’s&value& 3 !! After!visiting! IC ’s! facilities! and!talking! to! its!

members,! President! Montilla! left! some! ! warm! words! in! the! IC3! visitors'! book.! The! fact!that!an!important!political!figure!visited! ! the! IC3! facilities! symbolized! the! recognition! of! IC3’s! value! within! the! Catalan! scientific! research! network.! Despite! being! a! young! research!center,!from!the!very!beginning!IC3! has!sought!to!become!an!important!point!of! reference! in! the! Mediterranean! area! on! issues!related!to!climate!sciences.!

In! the! press! conference! that! followed,! Xavier! Rodó! presented! some! of! IC3's! institutional! challenges! and! a! new! project! called! Critical! Climatic! Zone! Observatories! (OZCC).! President! Montilla! deemed! it! a! “very! ambitious! project”! and! expressed! the! government’s! intention! to! study! and! eventually! contribute! to! the! funding! of! this! initiative.!Despite!the!fact!that!this!project!had!not!yet!moved!beyond!the!planning!stage,!this!institutional!visit! was!extremely!useful!in!terms!of!IC3’s!media!visibility,!since!the!press!reported!extensively!about!this!event!and,! as!a!consequence,!about!IC3’s!research!work.! The&OZCC&Project& The! implementation! of! three! Critical! Climatic! Zone! Observatories! (OZCC)! is! a! pioneering! initiative!in!Europe!carried!out!by!IC3.!The!aim!of! this! project! was! to! evaluate! the! impacts! of! climate! change! in! the! region! of! Catalonia.! The! OZCC!project!planned! to!set! up!Critical! Climatic! Zone! Observatories! in! the! following! areas:! Vila> seca>Ebro! Delta,! Pyrenees>high! mountain! area! and! Lleida! plains>intensive! farming! systems.! Today,! there! is! only! one! initiative! similar! to! OZCC,! in! the! USA,! where! the! Southern! Sierra! Critical!Zone!Observatory!in!California!is!the!best! example.! The! launch! of! the! new! ClimaDat! project!funded! by!”la! Caixa"!Welfare! Projects!is! now! bringing! Critical! Zone! Observatories! to! Spain.!


46! !

”la(Caixa”(Foundation(Welfare(Projects(will(Provide( Six(Million(Euros(to(the(ClimaDat(Project(over(the( Next(Five(Years( IC3&and&”la&Caixa”&Foundation&Welfare&Projects&will&establish&one&of&Europe’s&most&advanced&observation& stations&in&the&Ebro&Delta&in&order&to&measure&the&impact&of&climate&change& The!Ebro!Delta!belongs!to!one!of!eight!natural!climatic!systems!chosen!for!the!ClimaDat!project!by!a!committee! of!scientific!experts!from!IC3.!The!contribution!of!natural!and!anthropogenic!dynamics!of!the!Delta!and!its!agro> ecosystems!to!greenhouse!gases,!in!addition!to!their!influence!on!rainfall!and!wind!distribution!in!this!area,!will! be!observed!as!one!of!the!major!roles!the!Ebro!Delta!data!station!will!undertake.!The!data!collected!in!samplings! will! be! available! to! the! entire! scientific! community! and! will! be! obtained! in! dynamic! facilities! that! will! evolve! according! to! new! scientific! challenges,! and! that! are! also! open! to! collaboration! with! other! research! groups.! In! order! to! obtain! data! that! is! as! reliable! as! possible,! sensors! will! be! set! up! in! natural! parks,! protected! natural! environments! and! biosphere! reserves! –! areas! where! the! baseline! from! which! changes! are! evaluated! can! be! determined!in!the!best!way.!! The!research!and!observation!configuration!will!become!a!pioneering!initiative!within!Europe.!There!is!only!one! similar! network! in! the! United! States,! the! National! Ecological! Observatory! Network! (NEON),! which! includes! physical! and! biological! data! from! plains,! forests! and! lakes,! forming! an! environmental! monitoring! network! that! takes! the! pulse! of! natural! systems! to! show! their! state! of! health.! The! ClimaDat! network! will! study! the! interrelationships! between! climate! and! natural! systems,! providing! a! one>of>a>kind! climate! snapshot! of! Spanish! terrains,! which!receive! Atlantic,! Mediterranean! and! subtropical!influences.! All! of!these! influences!may! undergo! changes,!which!can!in!turn!influence!the!whole!country’s!climate.!Therefore,!the!data!obtained!will!be!used!as!a! powerful! tool! for!implementing!future! initiatives! to! improve!the! planet’s! condition,!as!well! as! potentially! being! used!to!accurately!assess!the!balance!of!greenhouse!gases!at!local!and!regional!levels.!! The!Mediterranean!region,!like!other!regions!of!the!planet!with!a!similar!climate,!will!be!one!of!the!regions!that! experiences!the!most!changes!due! to!climate!change.! As! a!result,!it! is!expected! that! the!Mediterranean!will! be! one!of!the!areas!where! global!warming!will!have!a!greater! impact.!Therefore,!the!ClimaDat!observation!station! network! in! the! Mediterranean! region! will! become! an! ideal! sensor! for! determining! the! evolution! of! climatic! impacts!and!enabling!effective!mitigation!and!adaptation!policies!to!be!developed.!! ! ! ! Spain,&one&of&the&leading&countries&in&climate&monitoring&& Terrestrial! and! marine! ecosystems! are! the! prime! sites! for! locating! climate! stations.! National! parks! and! biosphere! reserves! are! ideal! locations! for! monitoring! the! climate! because! they! are! made! up! of! ecosystems!that!are!very!sensitive!to!any!fluctuation,!as!well!as!being!extremely!important!for!conserving! biodiversity.!For!that!reason,!in!addition!to!the!Ebro!Delta!site,!other!ClimaDat!observation!stations!will!be! located!in!Andalusia,!Galicia,!Castile!and!Leon,!Álava,!the!Balearic!Islands!and!the!Canary!Islands.!


47! !

Up5to5date,&freely&accessible&information& The!data!obtained!from!these!eight!stations!in!different!protected!areas!will!be!displayed!at!the!sites!and! in!”la!Caixa”! Welfare! Projects’!science!museums:!CosmoCaixa! Barcelona! and! CosmoCaixa!Madrid.! It!will! also!be!available!and!freely!accessible!online.!!


48! !


49!

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! ! !

6 Research( ! ! !

Climate(Dynamics(and(Impacts(Unit((UDIC)( !

!

General(Objectives( •

Identifying! and! understanding! the! physical! and! dynamic! mechanisms! that! maintain! climate! patterns! globally! and! regionally! and! the! causes! of! their! changes! in! time! and! space,! in! order! to! discover! and! understand!the!fundamentals!of!climate!system!predictability!for!interannual!and!longer!timeframes,!and! evaluating! the! impact! of! human! activity! on! the! earth's! climate! and! of! the! climate! on! societies! and! ecosystems.!

A!major!objective!of!atmosphere>ocean!science,!and!also!of!this!research!unit,!is!understanding!how!our! atmosphere!and!oceans!work!together!to!produce!the!current!climate,!including!its!variations,!and!how! that!climate!might!change!in!the!future.!

In!terms!of!climate!impacts,!the!unit!will!work!to!identify!key!climatic!and!environmental!players!acting!in! each!process,!situation,!time!and!space!scales.!It!will!use!modeling!to!look!at!how!interactions!of!internal! dynamics! of! the! impacted! system! can! be! predicted! for! the! benefit! of! society.! Main! sectors! include! hydrology,!agriculture!and!human!health.!

Main(Achievements( 1. Identification! of! the! RossBell! dipole! in! the! extratropical! southern! Pacific! Ocean.! Characterization! of! its! role!in!the!whole!mechanism!leading!to!the!onset!and!development!of!El!Niño!episodes!and!evaluation!of! its!associated!predictability.! 2. Contribution!to!the!understanding!of!the!role!of!different!regions!in!the!tropical!Pacific!and!Indian!Oceans! in!the!development!and!structure! of!the!Indian! summer!monsoon.!This!work!was!done!in!collaboration! with!scientists!at!COLA!(USA).! 3. Characterization! of! extreme! temperature! structures! (e.g.! heat! waves)! and! construction! of! the! relationship! between! temperature! and! human! mortality.! A! simplified! methodology! was! presented! in! order! to! reproduce! the! simulated! changes! in! temperature! distribution! from! a! relatively! small! set! of! central! statistics:! the! mean,! standard! deviation! and! skewness! coefficient.! This! approach! was! shown! to! successfully! identify! the! main! factors! explaining! the! increase/decrease! in! the! number,! length! and! duration! of! warm/cold! temperature! extremes.! In! particular,! this! technique! strikingly! reproduced! the! evolution! of! temperature>related! mortality! that! is! projected! for! the! present! century! in! nearly! 200! European!regions.!


50! !

Summary( The!UDIC!is!interested!in!research!fields!as!diverse!as!Mediterranean!and!tropical!climates,!teleconnections!and! global!climate!dynamics,!ENSO!genesis!and!its!predictability,!the!role!of!climate!variability!on!the! global!carbon! cycle!and!understanding,!detecting!and!simulating!climate!impacts.!We!are!particularly!involved!in!understanding! the! ranges! of! climate! sensitivity,! in! trying! to! decipher! the! ways! ENSO! impacts! different! regions! –! using! both! statistical! and! dynamic! models! –! and! the! implications! ENSO! has! for! extremes! and! impacts! on! socio>economic! factors.!We!are!also!interested!in!understanding!the!origin!of!El!Niño!episodes,!and!how!ENSO!interacts!with!the! tropical! Atlantic! and! the! extratropical! Atlantic! to! modulate! climate! variability! in! the! Mediterranean! area! and! other!regions!in!Africa!and!Asia.!As!an!example,!we!are!working!on!the!interaction!between!ENSO!and!Southwest! Asian! monsoons,! and! how! this! interaction! conditions! both! regional! climate! in! the! area! and! ultimately,! hydrological!extremes!and!the!outbreak!of!infectious!diseases.!Interesting!approaches!include!the!development! and!implementation!of!new!schemes!for!the!parameterization!of!regional!ocean!models,!to!be!used!to!improve! the!simulation!skills!of!seasonal!climate!models!(e.g.!for!the!Mediterranean!region,!attempting!to!better!simulate! convective! storms! developing! in!late! summer/early! fall).! We!are! currently!developing!remote!sensing! and! data! fusion!tools!based!on!signal!theory,! in! order! to!derive!useful! satellite! information!to!be!integrated!into!climate! studies!(in!particular,!though!not!exclusively,!for!hydrological!extremes).!In!the!area!of!climate!and!health,!we!are! very! active! in! trying! to! model! extremes! in! climate! and! the! way! these! translate! to! the! health! field! through! innovative! approaches.! For! example,! temperature! extremes! such! as! heat! waves! and! their! resulting! impact! on! human!mortality!is!an!area!we!have!successfully!examined.!A!main!focus!of!our!research!has!also!been!centered! on!modeling!climate>driven!infectious!diseases!(e.g.!water>borne!diseases!such!as!cholera,!rotavirus,!adenovirus,! to!vector>borne!diseases!such!as!malaria,!cutaneous!leishmaniasis,!yellow!fever,!Rift!Valley!fever!and!dengue),!for! both!endemic!regions!and!in!epidemic!situations!worldwide!(such!as!the!fringe!areas!of!deserts!and!highlands).! We! have! recently! launched! a! new! area! of! research! devoted! to! modeling! airborne! diseases! and! their! potential! links!to!large>scale!atmospheric!circulation!patterns.!

(Head(of(the(Unit( Dr.! Xavier! Rodó,! ICREA! Research! Professor,! IC3! Director! and! Head! of! the! UDIC! (xavier.rodo@ic3.cat)!

Members( •

Ms.!Andrea!Richter>Boix,!Ph.D.!student!!

Mr.!Carlos!J.!Dommar,!Research!Associate!!

Ms.!Cristina!González!Haro,!Research!Engineer!and!Ph.D.!student!

Dr.!Emiliano!Gelati,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!!

Dr.!Jean!Tournadre,!Senior!Researcher,!long>term!visiting!researcher!from!the!French!Research!Institute! for!Exploitation!of!the!Sea!(Ifremer)!(Brest,!France)!!

Mr.!Joan!Ballester,!Ph.D.!student!!

Mr.!Joan!Llort,!Masters!student!(University!Pierre!and!Marie!Curie,!Paris,!France)!!

Dr.!Jordi!Isern>Fontanet,!Junior!Researcher!!

Dr.!Karina!Laneri,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!!

• !

Mr.!Mahesh!Shinde,!Ph.D.!student!!


51! !

Ms.!Mariví!Tello,!Ph.D.!student!!

Ms.!Rosa!Arias,!ClimaDat!Project!Operations!Coordinator!!

Dr.!Shujie!Ma,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!!

!

References Relevant!UDIC!publications!can!be!found!in!Annex!III!under!the!following!numbers:! 1,!2,!8,!9,!11,!12,!13,!17!


52! !

Projects Kawasaki,!“Kawasaki!Disease:!Disentangling!the!role!of!climate!in!the!outbreaks”!(La!Marató!de!TV3!Foundation,! 36!months)! QWeCI,!“Quantifying!Weather!and!Climate!Impacts!on!Health!in!Developing!Countries”!(EU>funded!project!from! the!FP7>ENV>2009>1!call,!36!months)! Viroclime,! “Impact! of! climate! change! on! the! fate,! transport! and! risk! management! of! viral! pathogens! in! water”! (EU>funded!project!from!theFP7>ENV>2009>1!call,!42!months)! MED3D,!“High!resolution!3D!velocity!field!reconstruction!from!satellite!Sea!Surface!Temperature!observations!in! the!Mediterranean!Sea”!(Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!36!months)! Ramón" y" Cajal," “Mesoscale! and! submesoscale! dynamics! and! flow! reconstruction! in! the! upper! ocean! layers! (Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!60!months)! CO2MAR,!“Studying!the!relationship!between!the!concentration!of!CO2!and!ocean!currents”!(Caja!Navarra,!partial! funding!for!project!initiation)! GLOBCUR,! “Reconstruction! of! the! global! ocean! currents! from! satellite! observations”! (Caja! Navarra,! partial! funding!for!project!initiation)! CLIMZRUN,! “Underpinning! work! to! enable! provision! of! local! scale! climate! information! (annual! to! decadal! timescales)”!(EU>funded!project!from!the!FP7>ENV>2010!call,!36!months)! MIDASZ6,! “SMOS! ocean! salinity! and! soil! moisture! products.! Improvements! and! applications! demonstration”! (Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!48!months)! ClimaDat,!funded!by!”la!Caixa”!Foundation!Welfare!Projects! DENFREE,! “Dengue! Research! Framework! for! Resisting! Epidemics! in! Europe”! (EU>funded! project! from! the! HEALTH.2011.2!call,!48!months)! Marie"Curie!IOF!project!with!Dr.!L.!Andreu!as!fellow!(currently!based!at!the!IRI,!Columbia!University)!


53! !

Research(Groups( The!UDIC’s!main!focuses!are!primarily!centered!on!understanding!the!dynamic!processes!responsible!for!climate! impacts! at! different! timescales.! The! second! core! focus! lies! in! improving! the! current! ability! to! simulate! those! impacts,!particularly!climate!effects!on!health,!ecosystems,!food,!energy!and!the!water!cycle.!! The!UDIC!is!designed!to!support!six!research!groups!(RG)!with!the!following!focuses:! •

Climate!and!Health!RG!

Mediterranean!Climate!and!Extremes!RG!

Global!Climate!Variability!RG!

Hydroclimate!Models!RG!

Ocean!Dynamics!and!Climate!RG!

Sea>Ice!Dynamics!RG!

Of!the!groups!above,!only!the!Sea>Ice!Dynamics!RG!is!currently!not!up!and!running!(expected!in!2013).!

!

Climate(and(Health(RG( & General&Objectives& 1. To! advance! in! the! understanding! of! relevant! globally! important! infectious! diseases,! specifically! those! related!to!climate,!using!dynamic!models!and!innovative!statistical!approaches.! 2. To!explore!the!role!of!the!interaction!between!extrinsic!(climate!and!the!environment!in!particular)!and! intrinsic! factors! (linked!to! the! population,! such! as! demography! and! immunity! as! well!as! relevant! socio> economic!status)!in!infectious!diseases.! 3. To! model! extremes! in! climate! and! the! way! these! translate! into! the! health! field,! using! innovative! approaches.! In! particular,! special! attention! is! being! paid! to! the! correlation! between! heat! waves! and! mortality!and!hydrological!extremes!and!food>!and!water>borne!diseases,!respectively.! 4. To! develop! an! IBM/ABM! spatial! platform! for! studying! the! spread! of! infectious! diseases! in! different! environments!and!under!different!external!and!internal!boundary!conditions.!

Main&Achievements& !

Identifying!the!role!of!climate!in!selected!infectious!diseases!such!as!cutaneous!leishmaniasis!in!Tunisia,! cholera!in!Bangladesh!and!regions!of!India!and!malaria!in!endemic!and!epidemic!situations!in!African!and! Asian!countries.!

Continuing! to! develop! dynamic! models! based! on! ODE! systems,! studying! the! differences! needed! to! be! incorporated! in! the! parameterization! of! mechanisms! responsible! for! disease! propagation! in! malaria.! In! particular,! this! is! being! attempted! for! endemic! as! well! as! fringe! areas! in! Africa! and! India,! where! large! epidemics!occur.!


54! !

Studying! the! relevance!of! superinfection!in!malaria!and! of!adding! subclinical!case! categories! in! a!multi> strain!system!for!dengue.!

In!addition!to!generating!relevant! climate!information,! some!of!our! results!are! beginning!to!be! used! to! implement!new!Early!Warning!Systems!for!some!diseases!in!selected!areas.!

Describing! the! functional! shape! of! the! temperature>human! mortality! relationship! in! more! than! 200! regions!in!Europe.!Studying!the!changes!most!likely!to!occur!in!those!extremes!in!future!under!different! climate!change!scenarios!and!using!a!variety!of!the!most!up>to>date!climate!models.!

Implementing!a!new!ABM!platform!for!studying!dengue! in! India,! in! collaboration!with!the! University!of! Rouen.!

Summary& We!are! very! active! in! the! area! of! climate!and!health! in! trying! to! model! extremes!in! climate!and!the! way! these! translate! into! the! health! field,! using! innovative! approaches.! For! example,! temperature! extremes! such! as! heatwaves!and!their!resulting!impact!on!human!mortality,!is!one!of!these!successful!areas.!A!main!focus!of!our! research!has!also!been!centered!on!modeling!climate>driven!infectious!diseases!(e.g.!from!water>borne!diseases! such!as!cholera,!rotavirus,!adenovirus,!to!vector>borne!diseases!such!as!malaria,!cutaneous!leishmaniasis,!yellow! fever,!Rift!Valley!fever!and!dengue),!for!both!endemic!regions!and!in!epidemic!situations!worldwide!(such!as!the! fringe!areas!of!deserts!and!highlands,!which!are!very!important!in!assessing!the!effects!of!climate!variability).!We! have! also! recently! launched! two! new! areas! of! research:! one! devoted! to! modeling! airborne! diseases! and! their! possible!links!to!large>scale!atmospheric!circulations!patterns,!while!a!second!area!of!interest!is!the!development! of!new!IBM>ABM!platforms!used!to!study!the!spatial!dynamics!of!disease!propagation.!

Head&of&the&Group& Dr.!Xavier!Rodo,!ICREA!Research!Professor,!IC3!Director!and!head!of!the!UDIC!

Members&& •

Ms.!Andrea!Richter>Boix,!Ph.D.!student!!

Mr.!Carlos!J.!Dommar,!Research!Associate!

Mr.!Joan!Ballester,!Ph.D.!student!

Dr.!Karina!Laneri,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!!

Research&Themes& •

Spatiotemporal!models!for!disease!spread!and!evolution;!

Simulation!of!climate!and!health!interplay;!

Extremes!and!mortality;!

Modeling!infectious!diseases!(cholera,!malaria,!leishmaniasis,!dengue,!Rift!Valley!Fever);!

Kawasaki!disease.!


55! !

Modeling&infectious&diseases& Epidemics! of!infectious!diseases!such! as!malaria! and!Rift!Valley!Fever!(RVF)!exhibit! great!variation!from!year! to! year.!There!is!huge!controversy!within!the!scientific!community!regarding!the!role!that!climate!variability!plays!in! driving! these! outbreaks.! While! some! authors! claim! that! climate! change! is! not! driving! the! spread! of! those! diseases,!others!show!that!in!epidemic!fringes,!local!temperature!or!rainfall!play!a!key!role!in!predicting!outbreak! size,!as!well!as!interannual!variability.!For!instance,!in!northwest!India!it!had!already!been!known!for!a!long!time! that! rainfall! was! a! good! predictor! for! malaria! cases,! but! the! extent! to! which! this! external! forcing! is! influencing! disease!dynamics!was!quantified!only!recently.!This!was!done!using!a!mechanistic!approach!based!on!a!system!of! non>linear! stochastic! differential! equations,! along! with! a! statistical! method! that! allows! for! comparison! of! epidemiological!vs.!climate!hypotheses.!This!approach!is!based!on!a!large!number!of!computer!simulations.!One! advantage! is! that! for! northwest! India,! these! models! show! remarkable! prediction! skill,! four! months! in! advance,! when!rainfall!is!explicitly!included!into!the!model.!! We!are!now!using!a!similar!approach!to!study!the!influence!of!local!meteorological!variables!on!malaria!and!RVF! in!Senegal,!Malawi!and!Ghana.!In!particular,!for!Senegal,!we!are!calibrating!and!adapting!various!malaria!models! to!fit!an!extensive!monthly!record!for!malaria!incidence!that!spans!almost!two!decades.!We!are!working!on!these! models! through! collaboration! with! the! Pasteur! Institute! in! two! Senegalese! villages! presenting! endemic! and! epidemic!dynamics.!The!models!being!considered!include!age!structure,!drug!resistance,!bed!net!and!insecticide! control,! as! well! as! other! socio>economic! factors.! Our! methodology! allows! external! forcing! such! as! rainfall! or! temperature!to!be!explicitly!included.!! During!2012,!after!these!models!have!been!calibrated,!we!will!apply!them!to!shorter!malaria!and!RVF!incidence! series! from! Senegal,! Malawi! and! Ghana,! available! through! collaborations! with! our! partners! from! the! European! project!“Quantifying!Weather!and!Climate!Impacts!on!Health!in!Developing!Countries”!(QWeCI).!

Hindcast!predictions!for!the!timescale!of!epidemics!in!Kutch.!Malaria!data!is!shown!in!red.!We!show!the!predicted!mean!cases!from! one!to!four!months!ahead!superimposed!on!these!observations,!obtained!by!simulating!the!VSEIRS!model!from!(1)!the!end!of!August! (blue!dots)!and!(2)!the!end!of!December!(green!dots).!Shadowed!regions!in!respective!colors!correspond!to!the!standard!deviation! from!a!set!of!5,000!predicted!values!for!each!given!time.!Notice!that!this!procedure!requires!the!estimation!not!only!of!the!observed! state!(i.e.!reported!cases)!but!also!of!all!non>observed!states!at!each!time!(i.e.!S,!E,!I,!R!,k,!l).! K.!Laneri,!A.!Bhadra,!E.!L.!Ionides,!M.!Bouma,!R.!C.!Dhiman,!R.!S.!Yadav,!and!Pascual!M.!“Forcing!versus!feedback:!Epidemic!malaria! and!monsoon!rains!in!Northwest!India.”!PLoS'Comput'Biol,!6:e1000898,!2010.!


56! ! Simulation&of&climate&and&health&interplay& Over!the!past!year,!UDIC!has!also!been!working!extensively!in!epidemiological!spatially!explicit!models!from!both! computational!and!mathematical!approaches,!as!it!is!leading!work!regarding!epidemiological!modeling!within!the! FP7! Viroclime! project,! in! which! IC3! is! involved! as! a! partner.! In! addition,! this! research! focuses! on! the! use! of! computational!agent>based!models!(ABMs),!which!is!key!to!understanding!crucial!aspects!about!the!spread!and! evolution!of!epidemics!and!infections,!and!their!links!to!environmental!heterogeneity!–!both!temporal!and!spatial! –!produced!by!climate!changing!patterns.! One!of!the!objectives!of!the!Viroclime!project!is!to!characterize!and!understand!the!interactions!between!climate,! hydrological!and!viral!dynamics!in!several!pre>defined!hydrological!basins!in!Europe!and!South!America!(e.g.!the! Llobregat!in!Spain,!the!Manaus!in!Brazil,!the!Patras!in!Greece,!the!Ume!in!Sweden!and!the!Tisza!River!in!Hungary).! Since! the! dynamics! of! water! in! a! basin! are! directly! affected! by! environmental! factors,! such! as! precipitation,! temperature,!etc.,!these!factors!can!be!directly!linked!to!the!ultimate!dynamics!of!water>borne!diseases!produced! by! virus! agents! transported! by! the! water,! using! an! appropriate! modeling! framework.! Thus,! the! idea! is! to! parameterize! hydrological>epidemiological! coupled! models! to! assess! the! effects! of! changes! in! climatic! patterns! and!to!assess!human!water!management!scenarios!in!the!dynamics!of!viral!particle!movement!in!the!watershed.! At! the! moment,! several! sampling! campaigns! and! lab! experiments! are! being! carried! out! to! provide! information! about!the!environmental!parameters!to!be!used!in!the!models.!The!model!parameterization!process!is!expected! to!be!completed!over!the!next!few!months,!and!then!validation!strategy!will!begin.!By!the!end!of!the!next!year,!it! is! expected! that! the! unit! will! be! able! to! provide! operational! epidemic! models! forced! by! environmental! factors! that! enable! assessment! of! both! expected! changes! in! climate! patterns,! and! possibly! strategies! in! water! management.!

OneZdimensional"approximation:!

Coupled!hydrological>epidemiological!systems!for!describing!water>borne!disease!dynamics!in!watersheds!forced!by!climate!factors! and! driven! by! water! management.! A)! The! water! dynamics! in! the! river! basin! are! governed! by! energy! and! mass! balance! (i.e.! hydrology!modeling!describes!this!aspect).!Then!viral!particles!are!transported!by!rivers,!run>offs,!etc.!in!the!basin.!B)!A!modeling! approach!based!on!partial!differential!equation!system!of!viral!dynamics!coupled!to!the!water!dynamics!can!provide!information! about!the!viral!concentration![V](t,x)!in!time!and!space!(this!is!a!very!basic!representation!of!the!modeling!strategy,!for!instance!a! crucial! important! aspect! of! viral! epidemiology,! which! is! not! represented! here,! occurs! within! the! host,! where! viral! amplification! takes!place).!


57! ! Carlos! Dommar,! a! member! of! the! UDIC,! works! in! close! collaboration! with! the! Laboratoire' de' Modelisation' et' Traitements' graphiques' en' Geographie! (Laboratory! of! Modeling! and! Image! Processing! in! Geography)! of! the! University!of!Rouen,!France!to!use!agent>based!models!(ABMs)!in!epidemiology.!The!intention!is!to!understand! the!dynamic!patterns!of!insect>borne!infections!(such!as!dengue)!within!urban!areas!and!cities,!and!the!effects!of! urban! connectivity,! population! displacement! and! external! environmental! forcing! that! affect! the! disease! vector! micro>niches!in!outbreaks!and!maintenance!of!the!disease!in!the!population.!ABMs!provide!an!ideal!framework! to! tackle! such! questions,! where! explicit! space,! environmental! heterogeneity! and! individual! variation! of! the! populations! are! important.! We! have! so! far! found! that! the! pattern! of! host! displacement! within! the! urban! area! does!have!an!impact!on!the!way!the!infection!spreads!in!a!city.!In!2011,!we!are!expecting!to!gain!a!better!insight! into!the!role!of!other!different!factors!that!might!play!a!part!in!spreading!of!the!infection,!such!as!vector!biology! and!sensitivity!on!temperature!and!precipitation,!etc.!The!final!product!of!this!research!will!be!a!parameterized! agent>based!model!of!vector>borne!infection!for!urban!areas,!such!as!dengue!in!New!Delhi,!which!might!be!used! for!assessing!scenarios!of!climate!change!and!implementing!different!policies!and/or!management!strategies.!

The!pattern!of!host!displacement!within!the!urban!area!has!an!impact!on!the!way!infection!spreads!in!a!city!


58! ! Temperature5related&mortality& We!have!also!studied!the!sensitivity!of!human!societies!to!increasing!environmental!temperatures,!as!a!result!of! the!steady!increase!in!greenhouse!gas!concentrations.!Thus,!we!showed!the!link!between!temperature,!humidity! and! daily! numbers! of! deaths! in! nearly! 200! European! regions,! which! were! subsequently! used! to! infer! transient! projections! of! mortality! under! state>of>the>art! high! resolution! greenhouse! gas! scenario! simulations.! These! analyses! pointed! to! a! change! in! the! seasonality! of! mortality,! with! maximum! monthly! incidence! progressively! shifting! from! winter! to! summer.! The! results! also! showed! that! the! rise! in! heat>related! mortality! will! start! to! completely! offset! the! reduction! in! deaths! from! cold! during! the! second! half! of! the! century,! amounting! to! an! average! drop! in! human!lifespan! of! up! to!three! to! four! months! in! 2070>2100.! Nevertheless,! projections! suggest! that!human!lifespan!may!indeed!increase!if!a!substantial!degree!of!adaptation!to!warm!temperatures!takes!place.! The!main!physical!processes!and!dynamic!variability!modes!explaining!the!amplification!mechanisms!of!observed! heat!waves!will!be!described,!with!special!emphasis!on!the!summer!2003!episode.!The!analysis!will!also!include!a! characterization!of!the!relationship!between!climate!variables!and!mortality!rates!during!the!warm!season!in!the! recent! observational! period.! This! description! will! focus! on! interdecadal! fluctuations! and! trends! in! these! relationships,! and! thus,! an! attribution! experiment! will! be! conducted! in! order! to! evaluate! the! effect! of! human! adaptability,! expressed! as! either! socio>economic! development! or! planned! adaptation! measures.! An! analysis! of! the! projected! changes! in! physical! processes! generated! by! the! increasing! concentration! of! atmospheric! greenhouse! gases! will! be! performed! subsequently.! All! these! analyses! will! finally! be! used! to! infer! the! future! evolution! of! mortality! from! climate/mortality! relationships! and! climate! model! projections.! Results! will! be! expressed! as! a! function! of! adaptation! scenarios,! additionally! including! estimates! about! the! change! in! society’s! demographic!profile,!such!as!population!size!and!age.!

Mortality!excess!in! summer!2003!(monthly! cases/million)!


59! !

Projects& Kawasaki,!“Kawasaki!Disease:!Disentangling!the!role!of!climate!in!the!outbreaks”!(La!Marató!de!TV3!Foundation,! 36!months)! QWeCI,!“Quantifying!Weather!and!Climate!Impacts!on!Health!in!Developing!Countries”!(EU>funded!project!from! the!FP7>ENV>2009>1!call,!36!months)! Viroclime,! “Impact! of! climate! change! on! the! fate,! transport! and! risk! management! of! viral! pathogens! in! water”! (EU>funded!project!from!the!FP7>ENV>2009>1!call,!42!months)! DENFREE,! “Dengue! research! Framework! for! Resisting! Epidemics! in! Europe! (EU>funded! project! from! the! HEALTH.2011.2!call,!48!months)!

Plans&for&2011&and&2012&&& The!objectives!for!2011>2012!are!to:!! 1. Work!towards!developing!a!general!framework!for!the!interaction!between!extrinsic!forcing!and!internal! dynamics!in!diseases!driven!by!climate!variability.! 2. Improve! the! formulation! of! prediction! models! for! cholera! in! Bangladesh! and! India! and! malaria! in! India! and!East!and!West!Africa.! 3. Develop!a!spatiotemporal!model!for!leishmaniasis!in!Turkey.! 4. Implement!a!spatial!platform!for!the!study!of!IBM/ABM!interactions!in!some!diseases.! 5. Improve!ODE!systems!for!dynamic!simulations!of!infectious!diseases.!! 6. Implement!a!platform!for!temperature!extremes!and!mortality!predictions.!

QWeCI!


60! !

Global(Climate(Variability(RG( !

General&Objectives& •

To!effectively!separate!the!role!of!different!regions!in!the!tropical!Pacific!in!monsoon!modulation!(Cash!et! al.,!2010,!2011).!

To!assess!the!performance!of!the!DEMETER!model!suite!for!seasonal!monsoon!prediction,!and!comparing! it!to!the!multimodel!ensemble!(Ma!et!al.,!in!press).!

To!identify!a!new!extratropical!tracer!of!El!Niño!episodes!(Ballester!et!al.,!2011),!called!the!RossBell!(RB)! dipole.!In! turn,! the!origin! of! RB! structure! was! traced! back! to!the! extratropical! wave! train! generated! by! western! Pacific! SST! anomalies.! This! finding! suggests! that! prediction! systems! for! ENSO! could! largely! surpass!the!nine!month!spring!barrier!limit.!

Main&Achievements& 1. Advancing! in! the! understanding! of! the! dynamics! of! tropical! teleconnections! to! extratropical! regions! under!future!climate!change!scenarios.! 2. ENSO!origin!and!predictability.! 3. Predictability!of!the!SW!summer!monsoon.!Interaction!with!the!Pacific!and!Atlantic!Oceans.! 4. Uncertainty!in!climate!predictions.!

!

Summary& We!are!interested!in!further!developing!our!schemes!for!ENSO!prediction!based!on!new!tropical!and!extratropical! tracers! that! have! been! recently! identified! (Ballester! et! al.,! 2011;! Rodo! et! al.,! in! press).! In! particular,! we! are! interested!in!learning!about!the! role!of!the! RossBell! dipole!in!generating!and! modulating!El!Niño!episodes,!and! the!structure!of!the!warming!that!occurs!beforehand!in!the!western!tropical!Pacific.!! Regarding!our!studies!on!the!climate!of!Southeast!Asia,!we!will!work!to!improve!understanding!of!the!potential! role!of!Indian!Ocean!SSTA!in!the!variability!of!Indian!summer!monsoon!rainfall!(ISMR).!It!has!been!found!that!the! length! and! coverage! of! ISM! were! decreasing! in! the! second! half! of! the! last! century,! and! the! ISMR>ENSO! relationship! was! weakening! during! the! last! two! decades! of! twentieth! century.! It! seems! that! the! Indian! Ocean! dipole! mode! plays! an! important! role!in! modifying! the! ISMR>ENSO! relationship.! Therefore,! in! our! study! we! first! focus!on!the!role!of!previous!Indian!Ocean!SSTA!on!subsequent!seasonal!ISMR!forecasts.! We!also!focus!on!the!role!of!global!ocean!variability!in!the!modulation!of!hydrological!extremes.!In!particular,!in! terms! of! droughts,! large>scale! highly! persistent! droughts! are! being! increasingly! forced! by! large>scale! climatic! patterns! driving! global! and! regional! climates.! Looking! in! more! detail! at! the! extent! to! which! meteorological! droughts!are!relevant!and!dominant!on!the!effect!of!land!surface!processes!is!a!common!objective!of!this!RG!and! the!Hydroclimate!Models!RG.!


61! !

Head&of&the&Group& Dr.!Xavier!Rodo,!ICREA!Research!Professor,!IC3!Director!and!Head!of!the!UDIC!

Members& •

Dr.!Shujie!Ma,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!!

Dr.!Joan!Ballester,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!!

Dr.!Mariví!Tello,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!

Research&Themes& •

ENSO!origin!and!predictability;!

Dynamics!and!predictability!of!the!Indian!summer!monsoon;!

Large>scale!climate!modulators!for!intense!and!persistent!droughts;!

Tropics>extratropics!interactions!in!present!and!future!climates.!

Onset&of&El&Niño&Episodes& One! of! the! main! lines! of! research! is! improving! our! understanding! of! how! El! Niño! episodes! are! generated.! We! have!recently!identified!a!new!precursory!tracer!of!El!Niño!episodes!in!the!southern!extratropics,!known!as!the! RossBell!dipole,!which!precedes!the!major!El!Niño!episodes!in!a!recent!observational!record!by!nine!months.!The! origin!of!this!leading!feature!is!shown!to!be!linked!to!initial!warming!in!the!western!tropical!Pacific!area!a!year!in! advance! (i.e.! 12+9! months! before!the!peak! of!El! Niño).!Thus,! the! RossBell!dipole! markedly!traces!the!eastward! transition!of!warm!ocean!anomalies!from!the!western!to!the!eastern!tropical!Pacific!for!up!to!two!years!before! the!mature!phase!of!El!Niño,!extending!the!phenomenon’s!predictability!beyond!the!current!limits!in!operational! climate!forecasting.! The!main!mechanisms!favoring!the!initial!generation!of!El!Niño!episodes!in!the!tropical!Pacific!will!be!studied,!in! addition! to! the! processes! that! explain! the! subsequent! amplification! and! teleconnections! of! the! phenomenon.! These! ocean>atmosphere! interactions! will! therefore! be! analyzed! in! observational! datasets,! and! the! conclusions! will! be! used!to!validate! a!large!ensemble!of! timely!state>of>the>art! coupled!climate!models.!The! most!skillful!of! these!model!schemes!will!be!used!to!design!new!numerical!experiments,!which!will!shed!further!light!on!the!main! dynamic! mechanisms! explaining! the! generation! of! EN! episodes.! During! this! exhaustive! study,! the! main! leading! processes!and!features!will!be!identified!and!used!to!design!new!operational!statistical!prediction!schemes.!


62! !

Lead>lag!standardized! (unitless)!low>pass!filtered! sea!surface!temperature! anomalies!averaged!for!the! major!five!RossBell!peaks.! Anomalies!are!shown!for! monthly!time!lags!>09,!+00! and!+09!before!(negative! lags)!or!after!(positive!lags)! the!RossBell!peaks!

Spatiotemporal&variability&of&drought&patterns& Droughts!and!floods!constitute!a!serious!threat!to!populations,!as!well!as!to!climate!sensitive!sectors.!Floods!and! droughts! seem! to! have! been! especially! severe! in! recent! years,! causing! profound! social! and! economic! effects.! Along!this!line!of!thought,!the!discussion!has!now!been!opened!on!whether!forthcoming!events!will!follow!this! trend.! IC3!has!been!working!on!assessing!the!variability!of!extreme!hydrological!events!at!regional!and!global!scale!over! the! last! century,! in! both! space! and! time,! with! a! view! to! enhancing! predictability.! In! order! to! undertake! this! analysis,!an!innovative!perspective!has!been!proposed!in!this!work,!where!a!different!way!of!considering!extreme! episodes!is!used.!Compared!to!conventional!analysis!that!treats!cells!as!independent,!the!episode!perspective!is! more!aligned!with!underlying!catchment!processes,!allowing!for!consideration!of!additional!parameters!that!are! important! for! better! assessment! of! the! temporal! variability! of! extreme! hydrological! event! characteristics.! Therefore! with! the! episode! concept,! more! emphasis! should! be! given! to! the! dynamic! behavior! of! extreme! hydrological!events.!


63! !

Evolution!of!the!total! number!of!simultaneous! extreme!drought!episodes!

The!next!steps!in!this!work!consist!of!analyzing!different!drought!indices!and!both!studying!eventual!trends!and! coupling! their! variability! with! the! variability! of! other! processes! such! as! precipitation! or! climate! signals! (essentially,! ENSO)! at! different! scales.! In! addition,! the! dynamics! extracted! from! the! drought! indices! will! be! compared!to!soil!wetness!dynamics!produced!by!land!surface!models!and!to!soil!moisture!provided!by!satellite! observations!(SMOS).!!

June!1983!

July!1983!

August!1983!

Spatio>temporal!evolution!of!a!severe!drought!episode,!based!on!PDSI!maps!

! !! Monitoring&the&dynamics&of&hydrological&processes&with&the&SMOS&satellite& One! of! the! main! objectives! of! the! SMOS! (Soil! Moisture! and! Ocean! Salinity)! mission,!launched! by! the! European! Space! Agency! (ESA)! in! November! 2009,! is! to! further! understanding! of! the! water! cycle! in! order! to! improve! the! forecasting!of! extreme! events.!SMOS! measures!brightness!temperature!of!the! surface! under!observation.!Then! soil! moisture! is! retrieved! by! minimizing! a! complex! cost! function.! Because! several! parameters! have! to! be! estimated! prior! to! the! minimization! process! (soil! roughness,! topography,! vegetation! water! content,! soil! type,! etc.),!soil!moisture!maps!that!are!currently!being!produced!are!subject!to!a!high!degree!of!uncertainty.! On! one! hand,! IC3! has! been! working! on! evaluating! the! potential! of! current! SMOS! soil! moisture! products! in! hydrological!applications!by!analyzing!the!consistency!of!the!spatiotemporal!patterns!observed.!In!particular,!the! study!has!been!focused!on!characterizing!signal!transitions!in!both!space!and!time.!!! On! the! other! hand,! IC3! is! working! on! producing! an! observational! drought! predictor! based! on! combining! SMOS! data!with!precipitation!maps.!!


64! !

Soil! moisture!maps!retrieved! from! SMOS! and! produced! by! CESBIO,! from! the!months!of!March!and!April! 2010!(left! column)!and!2011! (right!column).!It!can!be!observed!that!retrieval!cannot!be!performed!in!mountainous!areas.!

A! sampling! campaign! is! planned! to! be! carried! out! within! the! scope! of! the! study! on! the! potential! of! SMOS! observations! for! monitoring! hydrological! process! dynamics.! The! campaign! will! provide! soil! moisture! measurements!at!different!scales!and!from!different!sources:!continuous!in!situ!ground!data,!sampling!from!an! airborne!L>band!synthetic!aperture!radiometer!and!data!from!the!satellite!sensor.!! The! assimilation! of! direct! brightness! temperature! measurements! for! hydrological! applications! will! be! explored! due!to!the!limitations!observed!in!the!retrieval!of!soil!moisture!content!currently!(in!particular,!in!mountainous! areas).!The! brightness!temperature! dynamics! will! be!contrasted! with! drought! index!dynamics! and! land! surface! model!dynamics!in!several!unique!and!well>known!scenarios.!


65! !

Brightness!temperature!maps!(K)!according!to!SMOS!from!three!consecutive! months!(from!August!to!October!2010)!


66! ! Predictability&of&Indian&summer&monsoon&rainfall& It! is! well! known! that! Indian! summer! monsoon! rainfall! (ISMR)! between! June! and! September! critically! affects! India’s!agriculture!and!economy.!For!example,!the!impact!of!the!19%!ISMR!deficit!in!2002!was!estimated!to!be! billions!of!dollars!worth!of!losses!in!India,!while!the!flooding!events!over!India!and!Bangladesh!in!the!summers!of! 1998!and!2002!also!led!to!serious!damage.!Therefore,!there!is!a!great!need!for!accurate!long>range!prediction!of! ISMR.! However,! seasonal! forecasts! of! ISMR! are! not! very! accurate! at! present,! and! there! is! especial! difficulty! in! predicting! extreme! drought! and! flooding! events! by! either! empirical! models! or! numerical! models.! The! limited! dynamic! predictability! of! ISMR! lies! largely! in! the! fact! that! most! models! still! have! major! systematic! biases! in! simulating!the!seasonal!mean!ISMR!and!a!great!deal!of!uncertainty!in!reproducing!its!interannual!variability.!The! Indian!summer!monsoon!and!its!precipitation!are!strongly!tied!to!atmospheric!dynamics,!and!seem!to!be!quite! sensitive! to! initial! conditions.! After! only! a! few! days! of! integration,! synoptic>scale! systems! will! show! noticeable! differences! from! observations,! with! planetary>scale! anomalies! diverging! subsequently.! Atmospheric! instability! with!abundant!moisture!transport!in!the!tropical!monsoon!region!and!active!synoptic>scale!convections!produce! significant!“climate!noise”!for!the!seasonal!mean!ISMR!in!numerical!simulations.!Systematic!biases!are!inevitable! and!endemic,!and!it!was!estimated!that!about!50%!of!the!interannual!variability!of!the!seasonal!mean!summer! monsoon!climate!is!governed!by!atmospheric!internal!processes.!This!means!that!if!models!simulate!ISMR!with! large!systematic!biases!in!the!first!place,!they!are!not!well!placed!to!easily!and!correctly!exhibit!the!temporal!and! spatial!variations!in!ISMR.!Thus,!model!performance!tends!to!have!a!large!influence!on!the!forecasts!for!seasonal! mean!ISMR.!How!to!therefore!improve!dynamic!forecast!quality!for!monsoon!rainfall!is!always!an!important!goal! in!global!seasonal!forecasting,!and!has!been!an!important!goal!for!IC3!within!this!RG.! Model! performance! in! terms! of! forecast! quality! for! the! ISMR! seasonal! mean! was! evaluated! on! the! basis! of! all! Indian!rainfall!(AIR)!observed,!the!Climate!Prediction!Center!(CPC)!Merged!Analysis!of!Precipitation!(CMAP)!and! the! multimodel! rainfall! outputs! derived! from! the! DEMETER! and! ENSEMBLES! projects.! The! approach! used! included! the! individual! model! (single>model! ensemble)! comparison,! as! well! as! comparing! these! with! the! multimodel! ensemble! (MME).! Results! obtained! revealed! that! systematic! biases! are! the! main! source! of! low! forecast! skill! in! reproducing! ISMR,! while! improved! reproduction! of! interannual! variability! may! increase! the! overall! forecast! for! ISMR.! The! MME! shows! superior! performance! in! reproducing! AIR! features! than! the! single> model!does.!This!improved!forecast!quality!obtained!by!the!MME!with!respect!to!ISMR!variations!firstly!depends! on! model! performance,! and! secondly! on! ensemble! size.! The! MME! has! improved! ability! to! simulate! ISMR! variations! during! 1972>1990,! whereas! it! exhibits! a! lower! performance! for! the! 1990s.! The! reason! behind! this! decadal!varying!forecast!quality!clearly!warrants!further!investigation.!In!summary,!these!results!suggest!that!the! MME!increase!in!skill!completely!depends!on!enhancing!individual!model!quality.!

Projects& CLIMZRUN,! “Underpinning! work! to! enable! provision! of! local! scale! climate! information! (annual! to! decadal! timescales)”!(EU>funded!project!from!the!FP7>ENV>2010!call,!36!months)! MIDASZ6,! “SMOS! ocean! salinity! and! soil! moisture! products.! Improvements! and! applications! demonstration”! (Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!24!months)!


67! !

Mediterranean(Climates(and(Extremes(RG( !

General&Objectives& 1. To! advance! the! knowledge! of! large>scale! and! regional! processes! modulating! climate! variability! and! change!in!the!Mediterranean!regions.! 2. To! improve! predictability! of! Mediterranean! climates! and! in! particular! of! the! climate! of! the! Iberian! Peninsula.! 3. To! develop! useful! prediction! schemes! for! Mediterranean! climates! for! the! benefit! of! society.! To! work! toward!the!resolution!of!complex!orography!and!associated!dynamics!over!small!spatial!domains,!such!as! Catalonia.! 4. Modeling!of!climate!extremes!under!past!and!future!climates.!

Main&Achievements! •

Characterizing!the! role! of! the! Tropical! North! Atlantic!(TNA)! Ocean! regions! in! the! modulation! of!climate! variability! in! the! western! Mediterranean.! The! interaction! between! the! tropical! Pacific! during! ENSO! phases!and!the!TNA!in!past!and!future!climates.!

Characterizing!the!structure!of!climate!extremes!over!Europe!in!the!past!and!in!future!climates.!

Describing! a! new! methodology! to! approach! and! better! simulate! the! evolution! of! extremes! in! future! climate!based!on!the!central!moments!of!the!distribution!of!a!variable.!

Applying!the!methodology!above!to!understanding!and!simulating!the!shape!of!the!relationship!between! temperature!and!human!mortality!in!over!200!regions!in!Europe.!

Summary& We!are!interested!in!exploring!the!common!fate!and!differences!of!Mediterranean!climates!worldwide!and!their! response! to! climate! change,! and! gaining! a! better! understanding! of! the! roles! of! teleconnection! patterns! in! Mediterranean! climate! in! sub>regions! and! seasons.! In! this! sense,! studies! have! found! contributions! from! teleconnection! patterns!to! winter! Mediterranean! climate:! the! North! Atlantic! Oscillation! (NAO)! over!its! western! areas,! the! East! Atlantic! and! other! patterns! over! its! northern! and! eastern! areas,! ENSO! forcing! selected! regions! over!the!Eastern!and!Western!Mediterranean,!as!well!as!having!other!indirect!effects!in!different!areas!of!Europe.! Summer! Mediterranean! climate! variability! has! been! found! to! be! connected! with! both! the! African! and! Asian! monsoons!and!with!strong!geopotential!blocking!anomalies!over!central!Europe.!Therefore,!we!will!mainly!focus! on!the!subsequent!impacts!of!teleconnections!on!variations!in!Mediterranean!climate.! Another!important!focus!of!our!research!deals!with!improving!our!understanding!of!the!basic!mechanisms!driving! climate! extremes,! particularly! those! related! to! precipitation! and! temperature.! Under! this! framework,! we! will! assess,!simulate!and!attribute!the!key!drivers!of!extremes:!variability!and!change.!

Head&of&the&Group& Dr.!Xavier!Rodo,!ICREA!Research!Professor,!IC3!Director!and!Head!of!the!UDIC!


68! !

Members& •

Mr.!Joan!Ballester,!Ph.D.!student!

Ms.!Mariví!Tello,!Ph.D.!student!!

Ms.!Rosa!Arias,!ClimaDat!Project!Operations!Coordinator!

Dr.!Emiliano!Gelati,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!

Research&Themes& •

Dynamics!and!predictability!of!Mediterranean!climates;!

Mediterranean!drought!characterization!and!prediction;!

Simulation!of!climate!extremes;!

Temperature!extremes.!

Temperature&extremes& Another! line! of! research! is! the! expected! change! in! European! heat! waves! and! cold! spells! as! a! result! of! global! warming.! Thus,! we! described! the! projected! change! in! the! distribution! of! European! temperatures! from! two! different! points! of! view.! On! the! one! hand,! we! showed! that! the! increasing! intensity! of! the! most! damaging! summer!heat!waves!is!mostly!due!to!higher!seasonal!mean!temperatures!in!summer!and!not!to!specific!changes! in!deseasonalized!anomalies!during!extreme!events.!On!the!other!hand,!a!simplified!methodology!was!presented! in! order! to! reproduce! the! simulated! changes! in! temperature! distribution! from! a! relatively! small! set! of! central! statistics,!the!mean,!standard!deviation!and!skewness.!Both!methodologies!were!shown!to!successfully!identify! the!main!factors!explaining!the!increase/decrease!in!the!number,!length!and!duration!of!temperature!warm/cold! extremes.!

Summer"2003!temperature! anomalies!(°C)!


69! !

Projects& CLIMZRUN,! “Underpinning! work! to! enable! provision! of! local! scale! climate! information! (annual! to! decadal! timescales)”!(EU>funded!project!from!the!FP7>ENV>2010!call,!36!months)! MIDASZ6,! “SMOS! ocean! salinity! and! soil! moisture! products.! Improvements! and! applications! demonstration”! (Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!24!months)! CLIMADAT,!funded!by!”la!Caixa”!Foundation!

Relevant&Outreach&& WCRP!DIG!Member.!Member!of!Group!3.!Develop!an!experimental!global!drought!early!warning!system.!

Plans&for&2011&and&2012& The!objectives!for!2011>2012!are!to:! •

Study!the!relevance!of!the!interaction!of!the!Tropical!Pacific!with!different!regions!in!the!Atlantic!for!the! Mediterranean!climate.!

Advance! in! understanding! the! dynamics! of! extremes! in! the! Mediterranean,! particularly! for! rainfall! extremes.!

Define!a!new!scheme!for!drought!prediction!based!on!SMOS!observations.!

©!ESA!


70! !

Hydroclimate(Models(RG( !

General&Objectives& 1. Hydrological!modeling!using!large>scale!climatic!information.!Catchment!hydrology!using!new!generation! of!high>resolution!ORCHIDEE!LSM.! 2. Hydrological!extremes!and!climate!attribution.! 3. Integration!of!remote!sensing!tools!for!climate!monitoring.!

Main&Achievements& •

Developing! and! comparing! performances! of! statistical! vs.! mid>to>fully! dynamic! hydrological! models! in! selected!river!catchments!(Llobregat,!Ume,!Tisza,!Patras!and!Manaus!at!the!Rio!Negro).!

Identifying!water!availability!and!water!demand!amounts!for!the!Mediterranean!region!overall!and!for!14! selected!catchments!therein.!

Designing! a! beta! version! processing! and! post>processing! group! of! techniques! for! interpreting! and! assimilating!remote!sensing!data!from!space.!

Summary& Our! research! focuses! on! developing! and! improving! hydrological! models! that! can! better! account! for! climatic! variability.! The! inclusion! of! climatic! influence! is! necessary! for! achieving! a! complete! description! of! hydrological! processes!and!trying!to!predict!its!likely!evolution!in!the!future.!In!parallel,!we!are!interested!in!understanding!the! physical! mechanisms! associated! with! large! and! persistent! droughts,! working! towards! implementing! an! early! warning!system!for!droughts.!We!are!working!with!the!CFU!toward!seasonal!drought!forecasts!in!this!area.! The! approaches! we! follow! range! from! stochastic! time! series! analysis! to! process>based! hydrological! models.! Comparing!different!methodologies!will!promote!the!strength!of!the!analysis!and!assessing!uncertainties.! Attention!will!be!given!to!assessing!the!impacts!of!climatic!variability!on!important!water>related!processes,!such! as!flood!control,!irrigation,!urban!water!supply!and!drainage,!crops!and!hydropower!generation.! Other!areas!of!focus!include:! •

Analyzing!existing!strategies!of!remote!sensing!from!space!for!monitoring!relevant!climate!variables.!

Developing!processing!and!post>processing!techniques!for!the!interpretation!and!assimilation!of!remote! sensing!data!from!space.!

Combining!remote!sensing!data!produced!by!different!sources!at!different!scales.!!

Soil!moisture!monitoring!from!space.!

Head&of&the&Group& !

Dr.!Xavier!Rodo,!ICREA!Research!Professor,!IC3!Director!and!Head!of!the!UDIC!


71! !

Members& •

Dr.!Emiliano!Gelati,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!!

Ms.!Mariví!Tello,!Ph.D.!student!!

Research&Themes& •

Developing!methods!to!study!the!variability!of!relevant!climate!signals!for!drought!prediction;!

Studying! signal! processing! techniques! to! analyze! the! time! and! space! variability! of! different! climate! signals,!at!both!regional!and!global!scale;!

Studying!the!spatiotemporal!variability!of!hydrological!droughts!over!the!last!century;!

Contributing!to!the!development!of!a!regional!ORCHIDEE!configuration.!

Climate5driven&modeling&of&catchment&hydrology& Drainage!basins!are!the!fundamental!land!surface!elements!for!describing!the!continental!hydrological!cycle.!The! water! balance! can! be! computed! over! these! areas! if! the! most! significant! water! fluxes,! such! as! precipitation,! infiltration,! evapotranspiration!and! river!runoff,! are!measured!or!estimated.!The!water!balance!is!calculated!by! models!accounting!for!processes!that!are!relevant!to!the!hydrological!cycle.!Several!types!of!hydrological!models! have! been! developed,! and! choosing! the! most! appropriate! model! structure! depends! on! data! availability,! the! processes!that!must!be!taken!into!consideration!and!how!the!relevant!processes!must!be!described.! Hydrological! models! typically! range! from! lumped! statistical! models,! which! exploit! the! correlations! between! hydro>meteorological! variables,! to! spatially>distributed! and! physically>based! models,! which! embed! physical! descriptions!of!the!processes!driving!water!fluxes.!Statistical!models!are!most!suitable!when!data!scarcity!hinders! detailed!process!descriptions.!On!the!other!hand,!distributed!physical!models!allow!more!rigorous!and!consistent! representations!of!the!water!cycle,!but!are!highly!demanding!in!terms!of!data!quality!and!quantity.!Intermediate! approaches! may! be! defined! to! try! to! represent! catchment! hydrology! with! an! acceptable! degree! of! physical! consistency!using!statistical!methods.!

Model!reproduction!of! historical!river!runoff!for! the!Llobregat!catchment!


72! ! Our! objective! is! to! develop! robust! hydrological! modeling! tools! where! the! most! significant! climatic! variables! driving! the! local! hydrology! can! be! input,! thus! assuring! physically! consistent! descriptions.! Robust! hydrological! models! are! especially! required! when! we! simulate! river! runoff! under! potential! climate! change! conditions.! Spatially>distributed!and!physically>based!models!are!suitable!tools!that!can!compute!energy!and!water!balances! at!the!interface!between!atmosphere!and!land!surface.!Moreover,!they!are!required!for!realistically!routing!the! water!flow!through!river!and!lake!networks.!We!are!currently!working!with!the!Organizing!Carbon!and!Hydrology! in! Dynamic! Ecosystems! (ORCHIDEE)! model,! which! is! a! spatially>distributed! and! physically>based! model! that! quantifies!the!evolution!of!water!and!energy!budgets!on!continents.!ORCHIDEE,!which!is!developed!by!the!Institut! Pierre!Simon!Laplace!(Paris,!France),!can!be!coupled!to!general!circulation!models!to!simulate!climatic!scenarios.! We!have!been!using!ORCHIDEE!as!a!modeling!tool!and!we!will!contribute!to!its!future!developments.! We!have!modeled!several!catchments!within!the!Viroclime!project!using!ORCHIDEE!and!statistical!approaches;!we! successfully! reproduced! past! river! runoff! time! series! and! generated! climate! change! scenario! simulations.! The! catchments! studied! are:! Llobregat! (Catalonia,! Spain),! Tisza! (Romania,! Ukraine,! Slovakia! and! Hungary),! Ume! (Sweden),!Glafkos!(Greece)!and!Rio!Negro!(Brazil).!

Hydro-climatic modelling of Llobregat river

Land surface information

Meteorologic input data (historical / climate change scenarios)

Maps!of!elevation!(left)!and!meteorological!input!(right)!for!the!Llobregat!catchment!

Projects& CLIMZRUN,! “Underpinning! work! to! enable! provision! of! local! scale! climate! information! (annual! to! decadal! timescales)”!(EU>funded!project!from!the!FP7>ENV>2010!call,!36!months)! MIDASZ6,! “SMOS! ocean! salinity! and! soil! moisture! products.! Improvements! and! applications! demonstration”! (Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!24!months)! ClimaDat,!funded!by!”la!Caixa”!Foundation!! Viroclime,! “Impact! of! climate! change! on!the!fate,! transport! and!risk! management! of! viral! pathogens! in! water”! (EU>funded!project!from!the!FP7>ENV>2009>1!call,!42!months)!

Plans&for&2011&and&2012& The!objectives!for!2011>2012!are:! •

Studying!signal!processing!techniques!for!analyzing!time!and!space!variability!of!different!climate!signals,! on!both!a!regional!and!global!scale.!Studying!the!spatiotemporal!variability!of!hydrological!droughts!over! the!last!century.!

Using!SMOS!observations!in!drought!prediction.!

Participating!in!developing!and!implementing!a!regional!ORCHIDEE!LSM.!


73! !

Ocean(Dynamics(and(Climate(RG( !

General&Objectives& 1. To! identify,! understand! and! characterize! ocean! processes! that! play! a! role! in! Earth’s! climate,! paying! special!attention!to!the!oceanic!upper!layers.! 2. To! better! characterize! and! model! the! ocean! dynamics! of! the! Mediterranean! Sea! in! order! to! improve! seasonal!forecasting!in!this!area.!

Main&Achievements& •

Developing!a!methodology!that!enables!reconstruction!of!horizontal!and!vertical!velocities!in!the!ocean! from!a!single!SST!satellite!image!and!altimetric!measurements.!

Setting!up!an!ocean!circulation!model!for!the!Mediterranean!Sea!based!on!ROMS!(prototype).!

Summary& Our! main! interests! are! the! dynamics! of! the! ocean's! upper! layers,! characterization! of! ocean! turbulence,! quantification! of! the! associated! horizontal! and! vertical! fluxes! of! matter! and! energy! and! understanding! their! role! in! Earth's! climate.! To! this! end,! the! approach! we! mainly! follow! consists! of! systematically! applying! recent! theoretical! results! to! ocean! and! atmospheric! observations! such! as! remote! sensing! data.! This! approach! is! complemented! with! the! analysis!of!numerical!simulations.!In!addition! to!our!interest!in!ocean!processes!relevant!to! climate,! we! are! very! interested! in! understanding! and! modeling! the! Mediterranean!area.!

Sea! surface! temperature! (SST)! from! satellite! measurements!(MODIS/Aqua).!

Head&of&the&Group& Dr.!Jordi!Isern>Fontanet,!Junior!Researcher,!Ramón!y!Cajal!

Members& •

Ms.!Cristina!González!Haro,!Research!Engineer!and!Ph.D.!student!!

Dr.!Jean!Tournadre,!Senior!Researcher,!long>term!visiting!researcher!from!Ifremer!(Brest,!France)!

Mr.!Joan!Llort,!Masters!student!from!University!Pierre!and!Marie!Curie!(Paris,!France)!!

Mr.!Mahesh!Shinde,!Ph.D.!student!


74! !

Research&Themes& Dynamics&of&the&oceanic&upper&layers& Ocean!mesoscale!(scales!from!30!to!300!kilometers)!and!submesoscale!(scales!from!a!few!to!tens!of!kilometers)! structures!play!a!key!role!in!ocean!dynamics.!On!the!one!hand,!mesoscale!vortices!are!very!effective!in!moving! energy! and! matter! through! the! ocean,! have! strong! impact! on! ocean! mixing! and! have! quite! important! vertical! velocities! associated! with! them.! On! the! other! hand,! submesoscale! structures,! although! less! energetic,! also! capture! a! significant! part! of! the! vertical! velocities! in! the! ocean.! The! importance! of! these! scales! makes! them! a! main!objective!of!our!research.!The!approach!we!follow!to!understand!ocean!dynamics!in!these!scales!and!their! relevance! for! the! Earth’s! climate! consists! of! applying! the! latest! theoretical! developments! in! Geophysical! Fluid! Dynamics! and! Geophysical! Turbulence! to! satellite! data! from! different! sensors! and! to! realistic! numerical! simulations! of! ocean! circulation.! In! particular,! during! recent! years! our! research! has! been! focused! on! characterizing! and! identifying! ocean! vortices! and! understanding! their! contribution! to! ocean! transport.! In! addition,! a! better! understanding! of! the! relationship! between! ocean! dynamics! and! satellite! sea! surface! temperature! measurements! has! opened! the! door! to! quantitatively! investigate! smaller! scales! from! existing! satellite!observations.!

Left:!Sea!surface!temperature!(SST)!in!the!Mediterranean!Sea!derived!from!satellite!measurements!(MODIS/Aqua).!! Center:!Surface!divergence!taken!from!SST!observations.!Blue!(red)!colors!correspond!to!upwelling!(downwelling).!! Right:!Chlorophyll!concentration!taken!from!satellite!measurements!(MODIS/Aqua).!

Ocean&remote&sensing&techniques& Ocean!currents!are!a!key!element!in!understanding!many! oceanic! and! climatic! phenomena,! and! knowing! about! these! is! crucial! for! navigation! and! operational! applications.!Currently,!satellites!measuring!sea!level!allow! us! to! reconstruct! the! 2D! velocity! field! of! the! ocean's! surface! with! resolutions! of! the! order! of! 100>150! km.! However,! sea! surface! temperature! (SST)! observations! in! the! infrared! spectrum! have! higher! spatial! resolutions,! although! it! is! very! difficult! to! extract! surface! velocities! at! these! scales.! A! better! understanding! of! upper! ocean! dynamics! has! allowed! us! to! develop! new! approaches! to! estimate! ocean! velocities! from! existing! satellites! and,! for! the!first!time,!to!recover!the!3D!velocity!field!from!a!single! SST!image.!However,!the!depth!of!the!oceanic!mixed!layer! is!also!of!fundamental!importance!for!climate.!Our!recent! research! results! suggest! that! it! can! be! estimated! from! satellite!measurements.!

Comparison!between!surface!velocities!taken!from!SST! (sea! surface! temperature)! measurements! and! in! situ! measurements!over!ten!days.!


75! !

Sea! surface! temperature! (SST)! taken!from!satellite! measurements! (AVHRR/NOAA),! surface!velocities! taken! from! the! SST! image! using! the! SQG! approach! (black! arrows)! and! surface! velocities! taken! from! simultaneous! in! situ! measurements!(RV!Hesperides).!

Ocean&circulation&and&modeling&of&the&Mediterranean&Sea& The!Mediterranean!area!is!one!of!two!main!climate!change!hot!spot!regions.!It!is!a!strongly!coupled!system!(land> ocean>atmosphere)!characterized!by!high!impact!weather!events.!The!importance!of! such!phenomena!makes!it! essential! to! improve! their! predictability! and! characterize! their! evolution! with! global! change.! To! achieve! these! objectives,!it!is!necessary!to!develop!a!reliable!model!for!the!area,!which!includes!a!reliable!ocean!submodel.!Our! main!contribution!to!this!effort!consists!in!implementing!a!regional!ocean!submodel!for!the!Mediterranean!Sea.! Its! dynamic! nature! pushes! us! toward! developing! a! high! resolution! model,! but! unfortunately! the! spatial! resolutions!required!by! the! model! are! much! smaller! than! the! observations!available.! To! improve! this! situation,! we! are! taking! advantage! of! our! expertise! in! upper! ocean! dynamics! and! remote! sensing! techniques! to! obtain! observations!of!the!circulation!of!the!Mediterranean!Sea!at!resolutions!similar!to!our!ocean!submodel.!


76! !

Sea! surface! temperature! (SST)! obtained! from! one! experiment! using! our! initial! implementation! of! the! ROMS! code! for! the! th Mediterranean!Sea!at!1/16 !resolution.!Winter!

! Ocean5atmosphere&gas&exchange& Oceanic!mesoscale!eddies!(with!diameters!of!the!order!of!100!km)!are!ever>present!features!in!the!upper!ocean.! These!structures,!which!are!the!oceanic!equivalent!to!the!weather!system,!are!known!to!have!significant!vertical! tracer! fluxes! that!can! have!a! direct!impact! on! the! biogeochemical! system! and,! therefore,! have! the! potential! to! modulate!the!gas!exchange!between!the!ocean!and!the!atmosphere.!Our!objective!is!to!determine!to!what!extent! these!oceanic!mesoscale!dynamics!contribute!to!the!CO2!and!CH4!distribution!observed.!The!approach!we!follow! is!similar!to!the!one!used!to!investigate!upper!ocean!layer!dynamics,!and!we!seek!to!understand!atmospheric!and! oceanic!satellite!observations!using!recent!advances!in!Geophysical!Fluid!Dynamics!and!Geophysical!Turbulence.!

!

Projects Ramón" y" Cajal," “Mesoscale! and! submesoscale! dynamics! and! flow! reconstruction! in! the! upper! ocean! layers! (Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!60!months)! MED3D,! “Reconstruction! of! the! 3D! velocity! field! from! high! resolution! satellite! observations! of! sea! surface! temperature!in!the!Mediterranean”!(Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!36!months)! CO2MAR,! “Studying! the! relationship! between! the! concentration! of! CO2! and! ocean! currents”! (Caja! Navarra,! partial!funding!for!project!initiation)! GLOBCUR,! “Reconstruction! of! the! global! ocean! currents! from! satellite! observations”! (Caja! Navarra,! partial! funding!for!project!initiation)!


77! !

Relevant&Outreach& Course!on!Satellite!Oceanography.!Master!in!Remote!Sensing!&!GIS,!CREAF,!Autonomous!University!of!Barcelona! (http://www.creaf.uab.es/master/index_en.htm)! Editor! and! author! of! the! postgraduate! course! on! Climate! and! Climate! Change.! Master! in! Renewable! Energies,! University!of!Lleida.! Author!on!oceanography!topics!in!the!Gran'Enciclopèdia'Catalana.!

Plans&for&2011&and&2012& The!objectives!for!2011>2012!are:! •

Submitting!the!results!regarding!diagnosis!of!horizontal!and!vertical!velocities!from!real!satellite!data!for! publication.!

Continue!working!on!diagnosing!ocean!currents!from!remotely!sensed!observations.!

Improving!the!Mediterranean!ocean!model!prototype.!

Working!on!mixed!layer!dynamics!and!diagnostics!from!remotely!sensed!data.!

Working!on!characterizing!ocean>atmosphere!gas!exchange.!

!

Sea!surface!temperature!(SST)!obtained!from!satellite!measurements!(MODIS/Aqua).!Summer!


78! ! &&

Climate(Forecasting(Unit((CFU)( !

General(Objectives( •

To! develop! and! assess! dynamic! and! statistical! methods! to! predict! global! and! regional! climates! on! time! scales!ranging!from!a!few!weeks!to!several!years.!

•

To!identify!sources!of!predictability!and!processes!at!the!source!of!model!error,!which!play!a!major!role!in! assessment.!

•

To! formulate! predictions! including! the! development! and! implementation! of! techniques! to! statistically! downscale,!calibrate!and!combine!dynamic!ensemble!and!simple!statistical!forecasts!to!meet!specific!user! needs.!

Main(Achievements( Long>term!goals!of!this!Unit!are!aimed!at:!! 1. Developing!global!climate!modeling!capability!as!part!of!a!larger!consortium!that!develops!and!maintains! a!whole!suite!of!Earth!system!models!(global!and!regional!climate!models)!used!in!climate!prediction!and! creating!relevant!climate!scenarios,!including!validation!and!verification.!! 2. Enhancing!a!leading!scientific!role!in!the!understanding!of!climate!variability!in!regions!of!socio>economic! interest:! Mediterranean! Basin,! South! America,! Southeast! Asia! and! tropical! and! subtropical! developing! countries.!! 3. Integrating! the! different! sectors! of! the! climate! research! community! (global! climate! modeling,! downscaling,! climate! diagnostics,! etc.)! that! are! required! to! satisfy! the! requirements! of! a! network! of! climate!information!users.!! 4. Creating!a!network!of!climate!information!end!users!in!order!to!develop!specific!applications!in!an!end> to>end! context! and! demonstrate! the! usefulness! of! climate! predictions! for! the! purpose! of! developing! economically/socially!efficient!climate>based!forecast!systems.!

Summary( Prediction!of!both!natural!climate!variability!and!the!human!impact!on!climate!is!inherently!probabilistic,!due!to! uncertainties! in! initial! forecast! conditions,! representation! of! key! processes! within! models! and! climatic! forcing! factors.!Reliable!estimates!of!climatic!risk!can!be!made!through!ensemble!integrations!of!dynamic!climate!models! or!statistical!prediction,!where!these!uncertainties!are!explicitly!incorporated.!The!use!of!climate!risk!estimates!in! socio>economic!end>user!applications!requires!a!seamless!set!of!forecast!systems!covering!a!wide!range!of!time! scales! and! spatial! scales! covering! global,! regional! and! local! processes.! Such! a! model! system! is! currently! being! developed! by! the! international! climate! community! and! is! the! goal! of! different! international! research!programs! such! as! THORPEX! (part! of! the! World! Weather! Research! Programme;! http://www.wmo.int/thorpex)! and! CMIP5! (an!experiment>oriented!contribution!to!the!next!IPCC!report;!http://cmip>pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5).!


79! ! Dynamic! models! represent! the! climate! system! through! a! set! of! equations! solved! by! a! computer! to! predict! its! evolution! several! months! in! advance.! Thus,! fully! coupled! ocean>land>atmosphere! and/or! empirical! seasonal! forecast!models!are!required!in!order!to!predict!seasonal!climate.!Such!a!model!system!could!provide!a!basis!for! quantitative!risk!assessment!of!the!effects!of!climate!change!and!climate!variability,!with!emphasis!on!changes!in! high!impact!events!such!as!extreme,!rare!or!persistent!climate!situations.!This!implies!the!link!to!a!wide!range!of! applications!(e.g.!water!resources,!extremes!–!heat!waves,!droughts,!floods,!etc.!–!stat>dyn!downscaling!of!global! model!forecasts!for!regional!key!variables,!etc.),!bringing!together!a!continuous!spectrum!of!scientific!expertise.! This! instrument! should! provide! policy>relevant! information! on! climate! and! climate! change! and! its! interactions! with!society.!The!results!of!this!activity!will!represent!a!major!step!forward!in!climate!science!at!national!level!for! its!global!scope!and!valuable!contribution!to!the!international!programs!mentioned!above.!The!Unit!is!involved!in! the!QWeCI!and!CLIM>RUN!EU>funded!FP7!projects.! The! CFU! gets! its! computational! resources! from! the! IC3! cluster! (Sun! cluster),! the! Barcelona! Supercomputing! Center,! the! European! Centre! for! Medium>Range! Weather! Forecasts! (United! Kingdom)! and! HECToR! (United! Kingdom).!

Head(of(the(Unit( Dr.! Francisco! J.! Doblas>Reyes,! ICREA! Research! Professor! and! Head! of! the! CFU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (f.doblas>reyes@ic3.cat)!

Members(

!

Ms.!Aida!Pintó,!Masters!student!

Ms.!Danila!Volpi,!Ph.D.!student!

Dr.!Hui!Du,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!

Dr.!Javier!García,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!

Mr.!Jordi!Peralta,!Software!Engineer!

Mr.!Luis!Rodrigues,!Ph.D.!student!

Mr.!Muhammad!Asif,!Software!Engineer!

Mr.!Oriol!Mula,!Software!Engineer!

Dr.!Virginie!Guémas,!Postdoctoral!Scientist!


80! !

!

References( Relevant!CFU!publications!can!be!found!in!Annex!III!under!the!following!numbers:! 7,!19!

Research(Themes(( CFU!members!are!working!on!the!following!activities!to!address!the!objectives!mentioned!above:!! Validation&of&dynamic&coupled&models&used&in&monthly&to&interannual&forecasting&& The!systematic!errors!in!the!models!should!be!assessed!to!illustrate!the!limits!in!simulating!specific!processes!(e.g.! tropical!tropospheric!wave!dynamics,!impact!of!tropical!forcing!on!extra>tropical!teleconnection!patterns,!upper! ocean! heat! content,! link! between! soil! moisture! and! summer! seasonal! mean! temperature)! that! are! relevant! to! monthly>to>interannual! forecasting.! Identifying! systematic! errors! is! the! first! step! in! discussing! options! to! push! those! limits.! A! large! variety! of! global! climate! simulations! will! be! considered,! including! operational! seasonal! forecasts,! multimodel! seasonal! and!decadal! re>forecast!experiments! such! as!those!undertaken!in!the!DEMETER! and!ENSEMBLES!EU>funded!projects,!and!multimodel!climate!change!projections!such!as!those!formulated!for!the! Intergovernmental! Panel! on! Climate! Change! (IPCC)! assessment! reports.! However,! EC>Earth! global! Earth! system! model! simulations! will! be! the! main! tool! for! the! validation! work.! The! host! institution! is! a! partner! in! the! recent! effort!led!by!the!Royal!Netherlands!Meteorological!Institute!(KNMI)!to!create!a!completely!new,!high!resolution! Earth!system!model!that!should!make!a!major!contribution!to!the!next!IPCC!assessment!report.!


81! ! Developing&interannual&prediction&capability&& Many! sectors! of! society! are! becoming! increasingly! sensitive! to! estimates! of! their! vulnerability! to! a! changing! climate,!given!the!growing!number!of!signs!indicating!the!occurrence!of!anthropogenic!climate!change!in!certain! regions! of! the! planet,! and! over! Europe! and! North! Africa! in! particular.! This! vulnerability! varies! according! to! different! time! horizons.! For! example,! water! management! planning! is! typically! carried! out! several! decades! in! advance,! while! crop! yield! and! human! health! management! has! a! much! shorter! timescale.! While! previous! IPCC! reports! provide! information! that! satisfies! water! management! planning! needs,! they! do! not! address! the! requirements! of! climate! information! users! with! time! horizons! of! up! to! two! decades,! mainly! because! the! IPCC! simulations!do!not!start!with!the!most!recent!observations.!The!ability!to!issue!decadal!predictions!that!take!the! most!recent!state!of!the!climate!system!into!account!(e.g.!fast!melting!of!Arctic!sea!ice!or!increased!warming!of! the! upper!layers! of!the!eastern! North!Atlantic),! along!with!increased!forecast!quality! in!terms!of!common! IPCC! simulations! will! be! explored.! In! the! framework! of! the! EC>Earth! consortium! and! in! collaboration! with! other! institutions! such! as! the! ECMWF! and! the! UK! Met! Office,! this! activity! will! estimate! the! forecast! quality! of! global! multimodel!climate!predictions!and!carry!out!interannual!to!decadal!predictions!with!the!EC>EARTH!system.!The! focus!will!be!on!the!evolution!of!the!intensity!of!thermohaline!circulation!(the!main!factor!contributing!to!the!risk! of! rapid! climate! change! in! the! region)! and! ocean! heat! content! over! the! Atlantic,! as! well! as! the! impact! of! the! variations! in! these! on! Western! Europe.! It! should! also! add! to! the! development! of! European! decadal! prediction! capability!and!help!to!prepare!a!significant,!innovative!Spanish!scientific!contribution!to!the!fifth!IPCC!Assessment! Report.!

3

Global! mean! temperature! decadal! prediction! anomalies! from! IC 's! contribution! to! CMIP5! with! the! EC>Earth! v2.3! forecast! system.! Three!member!ensembles!are!drawn.!Only!the!first!five!years!of!each!ensemble!prediction!are!shown!for!simplicity.!Predictions!for! each!start!date!are!represented!with!a!different!color.!For!reference,!temperature!for!the!NCEP!(R1)!and!ERA!(ERA40!and!ERAInterim)! re>analyses! are! displayed.! Note! the! good! correspondence! between! the! predictions! and! the! reference,! including! the! slowdown! of! st global!warming!during!the!21 !century.!

March!

September!

Mean!March!and! September!sea!ice! thickness!in!the!Arctic! Ocean!from!a! NEMO/LIM!forced! simulation!with! nudging!to!ocean! reanalysis!!


82! !

Developing&and&implementing&methods&to&formulate&probabilistic&climate&forecasts&& While! the! ensemble! approach! is! commonly! used! to! include! initial! condition! error! in! forecast! uncertainty,! and! different! methods! have! been! considered! to! include! the! impact! of! different! aspects! of! model! error! in! forecast! uncertainty! (multimodel! approach,! perturbed! parameters! and! stochastic! physics)! at! different! timescales! (seasonal,! interannual! and! climate! change),! a! large! gap! still! exists! in! designing! post>processing! methods! that! combine! the! different! sources! of! forecast! information! and! extract! the! useful! information! from! the! forecast! ensembles! available.! In! addition! to! the! different! methods! explored! up! to! now! (e.g.! linear! regression,! Bayesian! model! averaging,! ensemble! dressing,! forecast! assimilation),! other! methods! such! as! principal! component! regression! with! ensemble! inflation! will! be! considered.! In! addition,! given! the! current! low! forecast! quality! of! monthly! to! interannual! forecasts! outside! some! tropical! areas! and! the! strong! seasonality! in! forecast! quality! in! extra>tropical! regions,! climate! information! based! on! dynamic! ensemble!forecasts! should!make!the!most!of! the! current!skillful!statistical!predictions.!This!means!that!a)!current!statistical!prediction!methods!will!be!considered! as! benchmarks! and! systematically! compared! to! dynamic! predictions,! b)! new! statistical! methods! will! be! developed! wherever! possible! and! c)! a! robust! combination! of! both! dynamical! and! statistical! prediction! information! will! be! widely! tested.! Both! the! ensemble! forecast! calibration! and! statistical/dynamic! combination! will!be!undertaken!in!a!coordinated!effort!with!research!scientists!from!international!institutions!such!as!KNMI,! the!Center!for!Weather!Forecasts!and!Climate!Studies!(CPTEC,!Brazil)!and!ECMWF.!

!

Seasonal!forecasts!of!Ni単o!3.4!HadISST!with!a!persistence>based!statistical!model,!ECMWF!seasonal!forecast!system!3!(dynamic)!and! the!combination!of!the!two.!Note!the!improvement!in!forecast!uncertainty!in!the!events!marked!with!arrows.!


83! ! Forecast&quality&assessment&of&probabilistic&monthly&to&interannual&predictions& The!potential!predictability!and!actual!forecast!quality!of!probability!climate!forecasts!should!be!evaluated!over! both!tropical!and!extratropical!regions.!A!comprehensive!set!of!forecast!quality!measures!is!available!that!takes! the!multi>faceted!nature!of!forecast!quality!into!account.!In!particular,!the!diagnostics!address!the!typical!lack!of! reliability!of!climate!forecasts!and!its!sources.!Lack!of!reliability!can!be!considered!an!additional!systematic!error! of!the!forecast!system,!which!includes!the!forecast!model!and!the!post>processing!method,!which!can!be!linked! to! the! errors! in! the! simulated! physical! processes.! However,! apart! from! being! a! tool! to! assess! forecast! quality,! reliability!also!offers!the!chance!to!link!monthly!to!interannual!forecasting!and!climate!change!projections.!One!of! the!main!difficulties!in!regional!climate!change!probabilistic!projections!is!assessing!their!accuracy!and!reliability.! The! CFU! is! working! on! developing! simple! examples! that! allow! approaches! used! to! estimate! the! reliability! in! climate! forecasting! to! be! adapted! to! assessing! the! trustworthiness! of! probabilistic! regional! climate! change! projections! for! this! century,! including! information! about! the! common! systematic! errors! of! climate! models! at! different!timescales.!This!approach!should!increase!our!confidence!in!those!projections,!while!at!the!same!time! addressing!the!model!error!problem!that!is!at!the!source!of!this!lack!of!reliability.!! 2>meter! temperature! correlation! DePreSys! vs.! NCEP/NCAR! TROPICAL! BAND!20S>20N!

2>meter! temperature! correlation! No! Assim! vs.! NCEP/NCAR! TROPICAL! BAND! 20S>20N!

Assim/NoAssim! 2>meter! temperature! correlation! vs.! NCEP/NCAR! TROPICAL! BAND! 20S>20N!

Correlation!of!Assim!and!NoAssim!near>surface!temperature!with!NCEP!reanalysis!in!the!tropical!band,!depending!on!the!forecast!time!and! spatial! averages.! Figure! a)! represents! Assim,! b)! NoAssim! and! c)! the! difference! between! the! two! experiments.! The! x>axis! indicates! the! number!of!consecutive!months!included!in!the!average!(from!one!up!to!the!whole!forecast!period).!The!y>axis!represents!the!number!of! grid!points! averaged! before!calculating! the!variances!and! the!covariances!between!model! and!observations.!The!global! mean!has!been! computed!from!those!values.!The!correlation!has!been!calculated!from!the!global!mean!of!the!variances!and!covariances.!

DePreSys!

EC>Earth!

Correlation!between!ensemble!mean!predicted!and!ERSST!sea!surface!temperature!anomalies!averaged!across!the!forecast!periods!of!2>5! years!for!the!DePreSys!and!EC>Earth!decadal!ensemble!predictions.!


84! !

Ensemble!mean!correlation!with!the!observations!(left!column)!and!time!series!of!2>5!(middle!column)!and!6>9!(right!column)!year! average! predictions! of! the! global! mean! temperature! (top! row),! Atlantic! multidecadal! oscillation! (AMO)! (middle! row)! and! interdecadal! Pacific! oscillation! (IPO)! (bottom! row)! from! ENSEMBLES! (black),! CMIP5! Assim! (dark! green),! NoAssim! (light! green),! DePreSys! Assim! (dark! purple)! and! NoAssim! (light! purple)! forecast! systems.! Predictions! initialized! once! every! five! years! over! the! period!1960>2005!have!been!used.!The!CMIP5!multimodel!includes!experiments!from!the!HadCM3,!MIROC5,!MIROC4h!and!MRI> CGCM3!systems.!The!one>sided!95%!confidence!interval!is!represented!in!grey.!The!observational!time!series,!NCEP/NCAR!global> mean!temperature!and!ERSST!for!the!AMO!and!IPO!are!represented!with!red!(positive!anomalies)!and!blue!(negative!anomalies)! vertical!bars,!where!a!four>year!running!mean!has!been!applied!for!consistency!with!the!time>averaging!of!the!predictions.!

Downscaling&probabilistic&forecasts&to&meaningful&spatial&scales,&especially&the&Mediterranean&region& Downscaling! ensemble! monthly! to! interannual! climate! predictions! will! be! addressed! with! statistical/empirical! methods! using! mainly! analogue! methods.! Preliminary! work! suggests! that! downscaling! performs! best! using! simple! traditional! metrics! and! Bayesian! methods.! Downscaling! monthly! to! interannual! forecasts! should! be! carried!out!taking!into!account!that!there!are!ensembles!of!forecasts,!meaning!multiple!simulations!need!to!be! downscaled!simultaneously,!and!the!complex!character!of!dynamic!model!systematic!errors,!which!are!described! in! activity! 1)! above.! Downscaled! forecasts! should! undergo! calibration! and! combination! and! forecast! skill! assessment!as!described!in!activities!3)!and!4)!above!for!global!forecasts.!The!whole!process!will!be!carried!out! based!on!a!user>inspired!research!concept.!The!main!goal!of!the!activity!is!to!increase!the!level!of!predictability! and!the!understanding!of!climate!dynamics!in!the!European,!Mediterranean!and!African!regions.!However,!other! target! regions! will! be! defined! depending! on! the! interest! of! specific! stakeholders,! provided! that! there! is! satisfactory!forecast!quality!at!least!during!key!seasons!of!the!year.!


85! ! Collaboration&in&the&development&of&end5user&models& One! of! IC3’s! main! thematic! goals! has! the! development! of! specific! climate>sensitive! applications.! Hence,! one! of! the!CFU’s!activities!focuses!on!working!with!the!groups!responsible!for!developing!those!applications!to!improve! communication!and!feedback,!allowing!the!user!to!repetitively!define!his/her!specific!climate!information!needs! by! describing! the! strengths! and! limitations! of! both! the! user! model! and! the! forecast! quality! of! the! climate! information.!The!forecast!quality!and!value!of!the!end>user!forecasts!will!be!compared!with!estimates!of!forecast! value! based! on! a! simple! decision! model! that! only! uses! climate! forecasts! with! no! user>model! information.! This! surprisingly! simple,! though! time>consuming,! methodology! is! currently! being! tested! with! a! research! group! modeling!the!incidence!of!malaria!epidemics!in!Southern!and!West!Africa.!Another!example!being!studied!is!the! use!of!ensemble!monthly!forecasts!in!improving!short>range!wind!power!prediction.!The!outcome!of!this!activity! is!considered!a!necessary!cross>disciplinary!link!between!private!and!public!research.!The!CFU!also!has!a!research! group! working! in! renewable! energies,! given! that! weather! and! climate! considerations! are! becoming! a! very! important!element!in!policy!and!decision!making!related!to!the!energy!sector,!both!within!the!context!of!climate! change!adaptation!and!climate!change!mitigation.!In!addition,!weather!and!climate!information!is!a!key!element! in!developing!and!using!renewable!energy!resources!such!as!wind!and!solar!power,!as!well!as!hydropower.!

Observed!solar!radiation!2005>2015!

Probability!most!likely!downward!solar! radiation!tercile!(%)!Nov!2005>Oct!2010!

5>year!range!anomaly!correlation!solar! radiation!at!surface!

Probability!most!likely!downward!solar! radiation!tercile!(%)!Nov!2010>Oct!2015!

Observed! five>year! average! downward! surface! solar! radiation! anomalies! for! 2005>2010! from! reanalysis,! along! with! probability! predictions!from!DePreSys!for!2005>2010!and!2010>2015.!The!system!predicts!an!overall!reduction!across!the!Mediterranean!over! the!coming!years,!although!the!anomaly!correlation!(fig.!4)!does!not!verify!this!trend.!This!highlights!the!need!for!better!observed! climate! data! and! correction! of! climate! forecasts! by!specialists!before!it! can!be! used!within! climate>related! sectors! such!as!solar! energy.!


86! !

Projects( QWeCI," “Quantifying! Weather! and! Climate! Impacts! on! Health! in! Developing! Countries”! (EU>funded! project,! 40! months)! CLIMZRUN,! “Underpinning! work! to! enable! provision! of! local! scale! climate! information! (annual! to! decadal! timescales)”!(EU>funded!project!from!the!FP7>ENV>2010!call,!36!months)" RUCSS,!“Improving!the!predictability!of!climate!in!the!North!Atlantic!and!Southern!Europe!between!monthly!and! decadal!scales,!using!a!seamless!approach”!(Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!36!months)! MAPFRE,"Ph.D.!fellowship!funded!by!the!MAPFRE!Foundation,!12!months!

Plans(for(2011( The!CFU!will!follow!the!same!line!of!research!we!have!during!2009!and!2010.!

! !

Autosubmit! is! a! tool! developed! at! the! CFU! with! the! goal! of! creating,! managing,! monitoring! and! documenting! dynamic! climate! 3 experiments.!It!has!been!tested!successfully!with!different!queue!and!scheduling!systems!such!as!Sun!Grid!Engine!on!the!IC !Sun! cluster,!SLURM!and!Moab!on!the!IBM!supercomputer!at!the!Barcelona!Supercomputing!Center!and!PBS!on!the!Cray!computer!at! the!UK!supercomputing!center!HECToR.!


87! ! !

Climate(Change(Unit((CCU)( !

Climate(Complexity(RG( !

General&Objectives& •

Complex!systems!approach!to!climate!change>related!ecosystem!disturbances!

Complex!systems!approach!to!biodiversity!and!its!relation!to!climate!

Complex!systems!approach!to!ecosystem!processes!affecting!climate!

Complex!systems!approach!to!the!interaction!between!climate!and!socioeconomic!systems!

Improving!the!statistical!methodology!for!climate!change!forecasts!

Main&Achievements& 1. Publishing!a!paper!presenting!a!new!theoretical!framework!for!wildland!fire!in!the!tropics.!The!paper,!led! by! S.! Pueyo! (Climate! Complexity! RG),! was! coauthored! by! several! experts! in! Amazon! ecology! and! published! in! Ecology' Letters,! the! highest! impact! ecology! journal.! This! theoretical! framework,! based! on! empirical! observations! and! modeling! results,! attributes! quite! distinct! dynamics! to! rainforests! and! savannas.!The!evidence!available!suggests!the!response!of!tropical!rainforests!to!some!climatic!changes! takes! the! form! of! fire>mediated! abrupt! shifts.! We! contend! that,! if! the! Amazon! rainforest! is! going! to! recede!in!the!increasingly!hot!and!dry!regional!climate!that!some!models!predict,!the!loss!is!likely!to!take! the!form!of!a!stepwise!sequence!of!critical!transitions!rather!than!the!gradual!die>back!usually!assumed.! This!dim!scenario!could!still!be!averted!by!mitigation!and!adaptation!policies.!Our!observations!in!tropical! savannas! also! challenge! some! widespread! views,! but! for! different! reasons.! The! fire! dynamics! that! we! observed!in!savannas!present!strong!similarities!to!those!in!other,!higher>latitude!biomes.!Some!traits!of! these! dynamics! would! have! been! generally! interpreted! as! strong! evidence! for! a! mechanism! known! as! self>organized! criticality! (SOC),! which,! according! to! some! authors,! would! lie! behind! all! kinds! of! catastrophic!events.!However,! we!showed! that! the!savanna!fires! studied! were!not!really!an! instance!of! SOC,! which! calls! the! usual! criteria! that! identify! SOC! in! all! contexts! (atmospheric,! geological,! ecological,! epidemiological,!socioeconomic,!etc.)!into!question.! 2. Paper! accepted! in! the! scientific! journal! Landscape' Ecology,! with! a! contribution! to! identifying! early! warning!signals!of!abrupt!desertification!in!Mediterranean!landscapes.!This!is!a!step!toward!avoiding!the! massive! losses! that! will! take! place! if! climate! change! causes! sudden! and! unexpected! desertification! in! some!regions.! 3. Paper! accepted! in! the! scientific! journal! Oecologia' Australis,! coauthored! by! P.M.! Fearnside! (National! Institute! for! Amazonian! Research! >! INPA,! Brazil),! proving! that! there! are!major! mathematical! errors! in! a! method!used!to!produce!official!estimates!of!methane!emissions!in!tropical!hydroelectric!reservoirs.!We! showed!that!this!official!method!introduces!a!bias!close!to!>80%!in!the!estimates.!Our!result!invalidates! some!widespread! claims! about!the! usefulness! of! tropical! hydroelectric! dams!to! reduce! greenhouse! gas! emissions!at!a!time!of!much!controversy!regarding!projects!to!build!major!hydroelectric!dams!in!Amazon! rainforest!areas.!


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4. Other!findings!still!await!publication!in!areas!such!as!the!sensitivity!of!the!global!climate!to!greenhouse! gases! (one! paper! submitted! in! 2010,! currently! accepted),! Mediterranean! fire! dynamics,! patterns! of! biodiversity!(two!papers!submitted!and!several!oral!presentations)!and!the!interaction!between!climate! and!socio>economic!systems!(two!papers!in!preparation!and!several!oral!presentations).!

Summary& The! Climate! Complexity! RG! applies! complex! systems! theory! and! new! statistical! methods! to! investigate! key! aspects! of! climate! change,! the! biosphere! and,! especially,! their! interaction,! with! emphasis! on! policy>relevant! topics.! The! socio>economic! system,! seen! as! a! component! of! the! biosphere,! also! falls! within! the! scope! of! our! research.!! Standard!climate!change!modeling!is!overwhelmed!by!the!complexity!of!some!components!of!the!Earth!system,! especially! the! ecological! and! socio>economic! elements.! However,! complex! systems! theory! shows! that! some! common!regularities!emerge!in!many!different!contexts!and!are!quite!indifferent!to!details,!meaning!we!do!not! always! need! to! know! these! details.! Our! aim! is! to! deepen! the! understanding! of! these! regularities! and! to! make! them!operational!in!climate!change!science!and!policy.! Our! results! encompass! topics! as! diverse! as! wildland! fire! in! several! biomes,! desertification,! patterns! of! biodiversity,!biogenic!methane!emissions,!dynamics!of!fossil!fuel!use!in!economic!systems!and!the!sensitivity!of! the!climate!system!to!greenhouse!gas!emissions.!

Head&of&the&Group& Dr.!Salvador!Pueyo,!Junior!Research!Group!Leader!(spueyo@ic3.cat)!

References&& A!relevant!publication!from!the!CCU’s!Climate!Complexity!RG!from!2010!is:! Pueyo," S.,! Graça,! P.M.L.A.,! Barbosa,! R.I.,! Cots,! R.,! Cardona,! E.! &! Fearnside,! P.M.! 2010.!“Testing! for! criticality! in! ecosystem! dynamics:! the! case! of! Amazonian! rainforest! and! savanna! fire.”! Ecology' Letters! 13:793>802.! DOI:! 10.1111/j.1461>0248.2010.01497!

Research&Themes& Inference&of&climate&sensitivity&& It!is!well!established!that!the!atmosphere!is!warming!because!of!greenhouse!gas!emissions.!However,!we!are!only! witnessing! the! first! part! of! the! response! to! these! emissions.! If! greenhouse! gases! ever! reach! a! constant! concentration,!the!process!of!warming!will!continue!and!it!is!difficult!to!know!when!it!will!stop.!In!other!words,! there!is!much!uncertainty!in!climate!sensitivity,!which!is!defined!as!the!global!mean!surface!warming!in!response! to! a! doubling! of! the! atmospheric! CO2! concentration! after! the! system! has! reached! a! new! steady! state.! This! uncertainty!poses!a!major!obstacle!when!setting!targets!for!climate!policy.!Knowledge!of!climate!sensitivity!has! been!valued!at!trillions!of!dollars.!Part!of!the!uncertainty! in!climate!sensitivity!will!be!reduced! incrementally!by! accumulating!empirical!observations!and!improving!climate!models.!However,!another!part!of!the!uncertainty!has! its!roots!in!fundamental!problems!of!probability!theory.!The!Climate!Complexity!RG!has!developed!a!solution!to! these!problems,!following!an!objective!Bayesian!approach!(Pueyo,!in!press,!Climate'Change).!


89! ! Climate5change5driven&abrupt&shifts&in&ecosystems&& Many!models!of!complex!systems!display!qualitative!changes,!analogous!to! phase! transitions,! when! their! control! parameters! reach! certain! given! thresholds.!The!Climate!Complexity!RG!has!been!studying!the!possibility!that! such! abrupt! shifts! take! place! in! ecosystems! as! a! consequence! of! climate! change.! We! have! focused! on! two! key! phenomena:! loss! of! tropical! rainforests! (Pueyo! et! al.,! 2010;! Ecology' Letters! 13:! 793>802)! and! desertification! in! Mediterranean! landscapes! (Pueyo,! 2011;! Landscape' Ecology! 26:! 305–309).! Tropical! rainforests! are! extremely! important! ecologically! (they! contain! a! disproportionate! share! of! the! world’s! biodiversity),! socially! and! also! because! of! their! influence! on! climate.! Their! response!to!climate!change!will!have!an!effect!on!the!rate!of!warming.!The! type! of! abrupt! shift! that! we! are! studying! in! rainforests! had! not! been! considered! previously.! Desertification! is! also! a! major! ecological! problem,! affecting! the! livelihoods! of! millions! of! people;! it! could! be! exacerbated! by! climate!change!in!some!areas,!notably!in!the!Mediterranean.! ! Scale&invariance&and&power&laws&in&the&interaction&between&climate&and& the&biosphere& Complex!systems!often!display!scale!invariance,!i.e.!similar!patterns!appear! over! and! over! in! many! scales! of! observation,! in! a! fractal! manner.! Scale! invariance! is! often!associated! with! a! power>law! frequency! distribution.! For! example,! the! sizes! of! fire! events! typically! display! this! type! of! distribution.! This!means!that,!for!each!fire!of!size!s,!the!amount!of!fires!whose!size!is,!say,! s/2,!does!not!depend!on!s!(unless!s!is!extremely!large!or!small).!!

Rainforest! fire! scars! in! Pando! (Bolivian! Amazonia),! mapped! from! CBERS>2!images."! Above:!Scars!around!a!road! Below:! Scars! in! an! area! of! igapo! ! (forests! seasonally! flooded! by! black! water)!

Before!joining!the!IC3,!S.!Pueyo,!currently!Head!of!the!Climate!Complexity!RG,!showed!that!the!parameters!of!the! fire!size!power>law!frequency!distribution!were!affected!by!atmospheric!forcings!in!a!characteristic!manner,!both! in!models!and!in!observations!of!boreal!forest!fires!(Pueyo,!2007;!Climate'Change!82:!131>161).!This!opened!the! door! to! forecasting! the! modifications! in! the! complete! frequency! distribution! of! fires! and,! possibly,! other! catastrophic!events,!as!a!consequence!of!climate!change.!The!Climate!Complexity!RG!has!extended!this!research! to! biomes! other! than! boreal! forests,! such! as! tropical! savannas! and! rainforests! (Pueyo! et! al.,! 2010)! and! Mediterranean!forests!and!shrublands!(Pueyo,!unpublished).!The!findings!in!Pueyo!et!al.!(2010)!have!implications! for! the! nature! of! catastrophic! events! in! general.! Furthermore,! besides! catastrophic! events,! we! have! been! working! with! power! laws! in! other! aspects! of! the! interaction! between! climate! and! the! biosphere:! sizes! of! vegetation! patches! in! semiarid! Mediterranean! landscapes! (Pueyo,! 2011)! and! emissions! of! methane! from! reservoirs!of!tropical!hydroelectric!dams!(Pueyo!&!Fearnside,!2011;!Oecologia'Australis!15:!199>212).!The!latter!is! a! contribution! with! clear! political! consequences,! because! it! shows! that! the! greenhouse! gas! emissions! from! tropical!reservoirs!are!much!greater!than!suggested!by!some!official!estimates.! ! The&idiosyncratic&theory&of&biodiversity&and&the&role&of&climate& Two!radically!different!approaches!to!the!study!of!biodiversity!have!received!enormous!attention!in!recent!years.! On! the! one! hand,! there! is! increasing! evidence! that! biodiversity! affects! the! functioning! of! ecosystems.! For! example,! the! conservation! of! biodiversity! appears! essential! for! sustaining! the! functions! of! natural! ecosystems! and!agroecosystems!in!a!changing!climate.!On!the!other!hand,!the!neutral!theory!of!biodiversity!has!been!quite! successful! at! explaining! macroecological! patterns,! such! as! species! abundance! distribution! and! species>area! relation,!by!assuming!that!all!species!are!ecologically!identical.!


90! ! In! a! strictly! neutral! approach,! all! species! would! react! equally! to! climate! change! and! other! pressures,! and! therefore,!great!or!little!diversity!would!make!no!difference!in!the!reaction!of!the!ecosystem!as!a!whole.!Before! joining!the!IC3,!S.!Pueyo,!currently!Head!of!the!Climate!Complexity!RG,!led!the!development!of!an!alternative!to! the!neutral!theory!known!as!the!idiosyncratic!theory!of!biodiversity!(Pueyo!et!al.,!2007;!Ecology'Letters!10:!1017> 1028).! The! idiosyncratic! theory! assumes! that! each! species! is! ecologically! different! from! the! others,! without! specifying!the!differences.!By!using!maximum!entropy!formalism!and!other!statistical!physics!tools,!it!was!shown! that!the!macroecological!patterns!most!likely!to!be!found!in!a!community!of!idiosyncratic!species!largely!coincide! with! the! patterns! expected! from! the! neutral! theory! and! reproduce! empirical! patterns! correctly.! Therefore,! the! predictive! successes! of! the! neutral! theory! give! no! reason! to! think! that! ecological! similarities! among! species! should! be! greater! than! indicated! by! other! lines! of! evidence.! The! idiosyncratic! theory! is! having! an! increasing! impact.! The! Climate! Complexity! RG! has! continued! advancing! the! idiosyncratic! theory.! One! of! its! possible! applications,!when!further!developed,!is!forecasting!the!response!of!biodiversity!to!climate!change,!bypassing!the! need!to!model!each!species!separately,!which!involves!overwhelming!complexity.! ! Econophysics&of&climate&change&impacts,&mitigation&and&adaptation& Human! societies! are! a! subsystem! of! the! biosphere.! Standard! economic! theory! is! far! from! fully! recognizing! the! functional! links! between! the! economic! system! and! the! rest! of! the! Earth! system,! as! well! as! the! usefulness! of! applying!approaches!and!tools!borrowed!from!theoretical!ecology!and!complex!systems!theory!to!economics.!The! Climate! Complexity! RG! is! working! along! these! lines! to! forecast! the! evolution! of! greenhouse! gas! emissions! in! a! context! of! increasing! scarcity! of! fossil! fuels,! the! patterns! of! response! of! the! economic! system! to! mounting! environmental! pressures! and! the! environmental! and! social! consequences! of! different! policy! options.! This! is! becoming!one!of!the!group’s!main!priorities.!

Savanna! fire! scars! in! Roraima! (Brazilian! Amazonia),! mapped! from! a! Landsat! ETM+! image.! (a)! Example! of! scar! identification.! (b)! Empirical!probability!density!function!f!of!scar!size!s,!in!ha.!The!small!frequencies!in!the!lower!range,!corresponding!to!1>3!pixels,! could!be!due!to!insufficient!resolution.!(c)!Probability!density!function!obtained!from!a!simple!simulation!in!which!fire!sizes!follow!a! truncated!power>law!and!some!of!the!scars!result!from!more!than!one!fire.!In!both!cases,!the!part!that!has!been!fitted!with!the! power>law!is!limited!by!vertical!lines.!


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Relevant&Outreach&and&Activities& Dr.!Salvador!Pueyo!has!actively!participated!in!many!outreach!and!assessment!activities,!the!most!important!of! which!are!listed!below:! •

Papers!in!the!popular!science!journals!Global'Talent,!Omnis!Cellula!and!Brolla.!

Member! of! the! committee! of! experts! advising! the! Spanish! Government! on! the! document! “In>depth! review! of! the! work! on! biodiversity! and! climate! change”! (UNEP/CBD/SBSTTA/14/6;! Convention! on! Biological!Diversity),!compiled!by!scientists!from!several!institutions.!The!main!meeting!was!hosted!by!IC 3! and!Pueyo!was!the!leading!author!of!the!final!document.!

Member! of! the! Scientific! Advisory! Board! for! the! project! LIFE+! Environmental! Policy! and! Governance.! “Gestió'forestal'sostenible'a'Menorca'en'un'context'de'canvi'climàtic”!(“Sustainable!Forest!Management! in!Menorca!in!a!Context!of!Climate!Change”);!LIFE+07ENV/E/000824).!Insular!Council!of!Menorca.!

Non>governmental! observer! at! the! Copenhagen! Climate! Change! Summit! and! at! the! preceding! climate! change!talks!in!Barcelona!(2009).!

Oral! presentations! at! outstanding! international! conferences! such! as! the! Annual! Meeting! of! the! British! Ecological!Society!(London),!VII!ASPO!Conference!(Barcelona)!and!Klimaforum09!(Copenhagen).!

One! invited! lecture! each! academic! year! as! part! of! the! Masters! in! Biodiversity! at! the! University! of! Barcelona.!

More! than! 20! talks! on! climate! change!and! other! environmental!issues! in!many!different!academic! and! nonacademic!contexts.!

Invited!participation!in!the!media:!debate!on!RAC>1!radio,!interview!in!the!weekly!publication'Directa.!

Referee!for!10!scientific!journals,!including!Nature.!

Plans&for&2011& •

Publishing!our!recent!findings!on!climate!sensitivity!and!biodiversity!and!expanding!them!further.!

As! the! main! focus! of! this! year’s! research,! developing! our! complex! systems! view! of! the! interaction! between!socio>economic!systems!and!climate.!

Continuing!our!outreach!and!assessment!activity,!as!in!previous!years.!


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Oceans(and(Atmosphere(Lab((LAO)( !

General(Objectives( •

To!obtain!high!quality!data!about!the!energy!budget!and!energy!transfer!that!impact!the!climate!system.!

To!characterize!the!biological,!geological!and!anthropogenic!components!of!greenhouse!gases!(GHG)!and! to!obtain!near>real!time!data!of!those!GHGs.!

Main(Achievements( La!Muela!Tall!Tower!(LMU)!

1. Using!aircraft!platforms!for!measuring!gases!in!vertical!profiles!and!horizontal! transects!at!a!regional!scale!(42nd!parallel).! 2. Weekly! GHG! measuring! in! the! remote! station! located! in! Begur! (Catalonia)! since!2000.!Results!are!published!in!the!NOAA!World!database.! 3. Continuously!measuring!atmospheric!CO2!since!2005!at!the!station!located!in! La! Muela! (LMU! Tall! Tower,! Zaragoza).! Near! real! time! data! is! sent! to! international!databases!such!as!GeoMon,!IMECC!and!CarboEurope!IP.! 4. Developing! a!growing!network! of!new!remote!flask!sampling! sites.!This!was! undertaken! in! the! context! of! the! Fluxpyr! and! LTER>ES! projects! with! data! obtained!in!the!Pyrenees!(Cap!de!Creus!Natural!Park,!Aigüestortes!and!Sant! Maurici!National!Park).! 5. Designing!the!ClimaDat!project!sites.!

Summary( The! Oceans! and! Atmosphere! Lab! (LAO)! is! the! technological! unit! that! manages! all! the! processes! related! to! sampling!and!generating!field!data.!The!LAO!will!manage!all!of!IC3's!atmospheric!and!oceanic!sampling!sites!and! devices,!it!takes!care!of!the!storage!rooms,!the!labs!for!processing!samples,!the!different!analytical!labs!and!the! calibration!and!intercalibration!of!all!equipment!and!procedures.! The!LAO!is!launching!the!ICOS!atmospheric!sites,!and!has!currently!one!Tall!Tower!located!at!La!Muela,!Zaragoza! (LMU)!and!six!measuring!sites!in!Catalonia:!! •

Continuous! data! sites:!CRAM! (High!Mountain! Research! Center),! ROSES! and! Natural! History! Museum! of! Mataró.!

Flask!sampling!sites:!CREUS!(located!in!Pedres!Negres),!ELL!(located!at!Llong!pond)!and!BGU!(located!in! Begur).!

The!LMU!Tall!Tower!is!an!atmospheric!station!that!contains!high!precision!GHG!analyzers!and!meteo!stations!at! three!levels.!The!flasks!sites!contain!flasks!that!are!sampled!(weekly!or!biweekly)!for!GHG!analysis.! The!LAO!is!made!up!of!a!team!of!scientists!with!great!expertise,!working!together!with!laboratories!worldwide!in! order!to!obtain!top!quality!data!via!involvement!in!national!and!international!research!projects.!


93! !

!

Head(of(the(Unit( Prof.!Josep!Anton!Morguí!(jamorguí@ic3.cat)!

Members( •

Ms.!Rosa!Arias,!Operations!Coordination!(ClimaDat!project)!

Mr.!Roger!Curcoll,!Field!Research!Technician!!

Ms.!Anna!Font,!Ph.D.!student!

Ms.!Mariví!Tello,!Ph.D.!student!


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Areas(of(Activity( •

Testing! and! researching! new! measuring! instrument! prototypes! using! remote! sensing! approaches,! and! using!innovative!approaches,!methodologies!and!strategies!to!obtain!useful!data!for!IC3!research.!One!of! the! LAO’s! main! achievements! is! using! aircraft! platforms! for! measuring! gases! in! vertical! profiles! and! horizontal!transects!at!a!regional!scale.!

Biogeochemical!cycles!of!elements!with!gas!compounds!that!affect!the!radiational!processes!of!the!Earth! (carbon! and! nitrogen! cycles! and! the! ecosystem’s! energy! absorption! and! emission).! Data! from! the! different!systems!are!obtained!as!temporal!series!of!spatially!distributed!data!from!remote!sites!and!from! specific!frontier!sites!to!highlight!fluxes!of!energy!and!water.!

Studying! the! distribution! and! atmospheric! transport! of! chemical! compounds! using! “in! situ”! continuous! measurements!with!aircraft!platforms!and!Lagrangian!models.!The!LAO’s!research!especially!focuses!on! approaches!combining!different!scales,!from!fluxes!through!ecosystems!in!watershed!scales!to!transport! at!regional!and!mesoscales.!

La!Muela!Tall!Tower!(LMU)!

Scheme!of!main!wind!directions!for!air!masses!arriving!at!La!Muela!Tall!Tower!(LMU)!

CO2!Mixing!ratio!at!La!Muela!Tall!Tower!(LMU,!627!m.a.s.l.,!57!m!high)!


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th

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ICARO>II!!!!June!26 >July!2 !2007!

!

!

Projects( FLUXPYR,"“Global!change!in!the!Pyrenees”!(EU>funded!project,!INTERREG,!36!months)! LTERZES,!“Spanish!Long>Term!Ecological!Research!Network”!! ICOSZES,!“Integrated!Carbon!Observation!System”! EUROREGIÓ,!“Network!for!a!new!culture!of!sustainability!under!climate!change”! ESF"PERGAMON,!Permafrost!and!gas!hydrate!related!methane!release!in!the!Arctic!and!impact!on!climate!change! –!European!cooperation!for!long>term!monitoring!! ESF"TTORCH,!Tall!Tower!and!surface!observation!research!network!for!verification!of!climate!relevant!emissions! of!human!origin!in!Europe! MIDASZ6,! “SMOS! ocean! salinity! and! soil! moisture! products.! Improvements! and! applications! demonstration”! (Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation,!48!months)! CLIMADAT,!funded!by!”la!Caixa”!Foundation!

Plans(for(2011( The!LAO!will!follow!the!same!line!of!activities!that!it!has!throughout!2009!and!2010,!focusing!on!developing!the! ClimaDat!sites.!!

!


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Lab(of(Education,(Dissemination(and(Public( Outreach((LEDIC)( !

General(Objectives( EDUCATION& •

To!position!the!IC3!as!a!creator!of!content!and!educational!activities!in!the!field!of!climate,!climate!change! and!other!areas!of!expertise!of!the!Institute.!

To!work!with!potential!stakeholders!at!all!levels:! o

General!public!

o

School!education!

o

University!education!

o

Ongoing!training.!

DISSEMINATION& •

To!position!IC3!as!a!benchmark!in!Catalonia!for!dissemination!regarding!climate!and!climate!change.!

To!find!synergies!with!key!local!players!in!the!field!of!scientific!dissemination.!

COMMUNICATION& •

To!position!IC3!as!a!benchmark!in!communication!in!Catalonia!for!the!field!of!climate!and!climate!change.!

To! integrate! both! internal! and! external! communication! activities! and! tools! in! the! routine! of! individual! researchers!and!the!Institute’s!various!research!groups.!

Main(Achievements( EDUCATION& 1. Representing! IC3! in! shaping! the! future! inter>university! Master! in! Energy,! Climate! Change! and! Sustainability!(MECCS)!in!collaboration!with!the!University!of!Lleida,!planned!to!commence!in!2011.! 2. Defining! and! creating! a! graduate! course! on! “Strategy! and! Management! of! Competitive! Resources! and! Fundraising!in!the!Sector!of!Research!and!Innovation”!in!collaboration!with!CFIT!(Center!for!Technological! Training!and!Research)!and!the!University!of!Girona,!planned!to!commence!in!2011.! 3. Creating!and!preparing!IC3!training!sessions!in!business!schools!on!climate!risks,!in!collaboration!with!IC3's! management!team.! DISSEMINATION& 1. Designing! and! preparing! content! for! the! “Future! City”! area! within! the! exhibition! “BVP,! Barcelona,! Valencia!and!Palma:!A!history!of!convergence!and!divergence”!at!the!Barcelona!Centre!for!Contemporary! Culture!(CCCB)!from!May!26!to!September!12,!2010.! 2. Contributing! to! defining! the! educational! aspects! of! the! ClimaDat! project! funded! by! ”la! Caixa”! Welfare! Projects!in!2010.!


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COMMUNICATION& 1. Internal! press! service! for! preparing! and! distributing! press! releases! related! to! the! results! of! research! undertaken!in!the!Institute,!achieving!national!and!international!media!impact.! 2. Producing!contents!on!science!and!innovation!for!the!digital!newspaper!GlobalTalent.! 3. Organizing!weekly!conferences!at!the!Institute!open!for!any!interested!members!of!the!public,!featuring! participation!by!IC3!members!and!external!visitors.!

!

Summary( Science!education!and!research!dissemination!are!still!based!on!the!old>fashioned!top>down!method!where!the! expert! conveys! scientific! concepts! to! a! passive!audience!(a! class! full! of! students,! readers! of! a! publication,! audience! at! a! conference! or! viewers! of! a! TV! show).! Audience! passivity!is! sometimes! overcome! in! educational! activities!that!require!interactive! participation!by!the! public,!but! always!under!the!guidance! of!a!facilitator! or!a! moderator.! This! method!has! proven!to! be!insufficient! in! conveying! knowledge! about! issues! where! social! perception!is!crucial!for!grasping!an!understanding!of!its!present!condition!as!well!as!its!future!evolution.!In!issues! such!as!environmental!impact!and!climate!change,!with!the!ongoing!hot!debate!on!public!opinion!and!conflicts!of! interest! in! the! background,!the!public!is! much! more! than! a! passive! witness,! a! fact! that! should! be! taken! into! account!when!undertaking!outreach!activities.! The!research! community! and! the!specific! departments! linked! to! them,! such! as! our! Lab! of! Education,! Dissemination! and! Public! Outreach! (LEDIC),! seek! to! communicate! the! knowledge! that! is! being! produced! inside! our!research!institutions!to!society.!However,!in!our!field!–!climate!and!climate!change!–!we!must!find!new!ways! to! reach! the! public.! We! need! to! develop! systems! that! allow! people! to! stop! being! passive! recipients! of! information,!and!start!becoming!active!individuals!who!actively!engage!in!the!social!construction!of!knowledge.! This!new!Science!in!Society!(SiS)!outreach!model!focuses!on!self!discovery!in!education,!emotion,!entertainment! and!participation!in!popularization!of!research,!and!in!stimulus,!surprise!and!criticism!in!communication.!


98!

!

!

> W O !&! KN GE E!! C D LE IEN SC

!

Head(of(the(Unit( Prof.!Miquel!Angel!Rodríguez!Arias!(marodriguez@ic3.cat)!

Members( The!LEDIC!currently!only!consists!of!one!person!as!head!of!the!laboratory,!but!expansion!is!planned!for!2011!in! the!context!of!collaborating!in!the!ClimaDat!project!and!its!educational!focus.!

Fields(of(Activity( !

In! the! classic! outreach! model,! scientists! develop! genuine!knowledge! first,! and! then! they! or! others! disseminate! simplified! accounts! to! the! public.! Under! this! model,!popularization! is,! from! the! scientists’! point! of! view,! an! “appropriate! simplification”! in! the! best! case,!or! a! “distortion”! or! “degradation”! of! the! original! scientific! knowledge!in!the!worst.!This!dominant!view!of!popularization!is!a!serious!oversimplification!that!cannot!provide! an! accurate!explanation!of! how! scientific! knowledge! spreads.! This!view! gives!scientists!exclusivity!over!genuine! knowledge!and!the!authority!to!draw!a!boundary!at!the!works!of!non>experts.!Scientists,!however,!are!not!aiming! to!actually!control!the!public!discourse!about!science,!despite!the!existence!of!specific!outreach!departments,!like! LEDIC! itself.! If,! as! stated! before,! scientists! do! not! actually! control! the! communication! of! science,! what! are! the! social!drivers!of!these!complex!flows!of!information?!


99! ! Several! conceptual! models! have! been! formulated! to!answer! this! question,! but! all! of! them! see! science! communication!as!“top>down”,!one!way!transmission!from!science!to!society!and!do!not!address!the!question!of! what!actually!happens!when!popular!science!reaches!the!public!domain.!It!can!be!argued!that!many!members!of! the! public! actively!participate! in! a! “bottom>up”! construction! of! the! public! perception! of! science! because! they! have! their!own! relevant! non>expert! knowledge! based! on! personal! experience,! culture,! conventional! wisdom! or!exposure! to! scientific! productions.! Journalists,! stakeholders! and! policymakers! belong! to! this!group,! but! only! journalists!are!well!positioned!to!have!a!large,!comprehensive!influence!on!the!perception!of!science!in!the!public! domain.!The!criteria!according!to!which!journalists!judge!the!“value”!of!a!piece!of!information!and!develop!it!into! news! are! generally! very! different! to! those! used!within! scientific! communities.! Besides! editorial! policies,! other! factors! such! as! the! accessibility!of! information,! the! availability! of! time,! money! and! skill! or! the! dependence! on! advertising!can! have! a! large! impact! on! the! treatment! and! dissemination! of! information.! Media! prominence! competes!with! scientific! reputation,! and! despite! the! fact! that! scientific! reputation! may! have! a! legitimating! function! for! media,! is! not! enough! to! guarantee! prominence.! With! the! growing! importance! of!the! media! in! shaping! public! perception! on! one! hand,! and! the! increasing! dependence! of! science! on!scarce! resources! and! therefore!on!public!acceptance!on!the!other,!science!has!become!increasingly!media>oriented.! Looking! at! it! this! way,! science! outreach! becomes! a! complex! social! interactive! process! that!encompasses! relationships! between! scientists! and! other! social! actors,! allowing! for! exchanges,! coevolution!and! building! knowledge! jointly.! This! type! of!interface! has! been! described! as! a! “culturescape”,! a! social! landscape! where! constant!social! negotiation! takes! place! in! order! to! construct! knowledge! for! common! social! ground.! These! culturescapes!form!the!foundations!for!all!LEDIC!outreach!activities,!and!by!being!aware!of!this!fact!we!are!able!to! develop! socially>oriented! services! (internal! and! external)! and! products! that! are,! as! a! prerequisite,! extremely! innovative!when!considered!from!the!traditional!outreach!approach.!

Projects( In!2010,!LEDIC!submitted!five!applications!for!educational!projects!in!different!calls!from!the!MAPFRE!Foundation,! Caja!Navarra/Banca!Cívica!and!the!European!Commission!(FP7!Collaboration)!in!order!to!get!competitive!funding,! all!of!which!are!still!pending!resolution.!! Its! collaboration! in! the! ClimaDat! project! extends! to! the! educational! part! of! the! project,! as! mentioned! above.! LEDIC’s!methodology!of!integrating!education,!dissemination!and!communication!in!this!project!is!based!on!the! following!scheme:!

DISSEMINATION&

EDUCATION&

I nf o o b r ma ser tio v a n! a tio t n!s !the ite ! s!

itions

s h op s

!

Info!distribution!in! DEC!format!

On

Opportunity'

W ork

!

Dy co nam m m ic!m un a ity na !o ge f!f m o l en lo t ! w of er ! s!

Ex p o s

lin

e!c h

an

ne

l!

COMMUNICATION&

Opportunity'


100! !

Plans(for(2011( EDUCATION& •

Implementing!the!educational!projects!awarded!and!submitting!new!applications!for!further!projects.!

Reaching!critical!mass!in!terms!of!staff!in!order!to!maintain!and!expand!LEDIC’s!educational!activity.!

Preparing! teaching! material! in! collaboration! with! other! IC3! members! for! the! modules! in! the! Master! in! Energy,!Climate!Change!and!Sustainability!(MECCS).!

Teaching!the!graduate!course!in!Strategy!and!Management!of!Competitive!Resources!and!Fundraising!in! the!Sector!of!Research!and!Innovation!in!collaboration!with!CFIT!and!University!of!Girona.!

Defining!further!training!sessions!in!business!schools.!

! DISSEMINATION& •

Beginning! to! implement! the! educational! part! of! the! ClimaDat! project,! which! includes! designing,! developing! and! creating! exhibition! content! for! CosmoCaixa! Barcelona! and! CosmoCaixa! Madrid,! educational! workshops! for! different! stakeholders,! plus! designing! and! maintaining! the! informational! content!of!the!project!website.!

Preparing!educational!materials!about!climate!and!climate!change!to!be!disseminated!through!IC3's!new! corporate!website.! !

COMMUNICATION& •

Completing! creating! and! subsequently! maintaining! the! new! corporate! website! and! its! inbuilt! news! channel.!

Preparing!and!publishing!the!annual!report!for!2010.!

Continuing!to!provide!internal!press!services.!

Continuing!the!weekly!IC3!talks.!

Exploring! the! potential! use! of! social! networks! to! improve! positioning! and! attract! traffic! to! IC3’s! new! website.!

Exploring! the! potential! use! of! the! corporate! website! and! news! channel! for! fundraising! and! individual! philanthropic!donation!purposes.!

Introducing!intranet!tools!to!improve!internal!communication.!

!

!


101! !

Support(Staff( !

Management(and(Core(Services( The!Management!and!Core!Services!department!includes!the!following&areas:!! •

Finance!

Information!Technology!

Fundraising!and!Corporate!Development!

Project!Management!

Administration!

Purchasing!

The!Institution's!Management!(strictly!speaking)!!

Other!areas!such!as!Human!Resources!are!covered!by!staff!members!in!the!departments!listed!above.!! IC3’s! Manager! interacts! with! Trustees,! acts! as! a! legal! representative! in! some! projects,! is! the! IC3! spokesman! in! institutional! meetings! (when! IC3’s! Director! delegates! this! task),! promotes! relationships! with! private! companies! and!coordinates!the!other!management!areas.!! IC3!is! committed!to! young!people! and!employee!empowerment,!and!therefore!the!Institute! truly!believes!in!its! core!services!staff’s!decision!making!skills.!

!

Information(Technology,(Computing(and(Database( Administration( The! Information! Technology! Department! (or! ITC>DBA,! for! Information! Technologies,! Computing! and! Database! Administration)!currently!only!has!a!general!system!administrator!who!is!temporarily!assigned!to!managing!until! a!departmental!head!and!additional!resources!can!be!provided.!

!

Fundraising(and(Corporate(Development( ! The!Fundraising!Department!complements!Project!Coordination!by!seeking!individual!project!agreements!within! the!private!sector!that!are!not!part!of!the!competitive!projects!announced!in!open!calls.!It!also!seeks!sponsorship! and! patronage! in! different! categories,! ranging! from! individual! donors! with! one>off! contributions! to! strategic! sponsors!who!are!part!of!the!Board!of!Trustees!and!commit!to!supporting!the!Institute!in!the!long!term.! This! department! is! actively! looking! for! collaborations! with! the! private! sector! in! accordance! with! IC3’s! mission,! vision! and! values.! There! are! many! ways! to! collaborate! with! us,! from! a! joint! project! of! mutual! interest! to! establishing!a!company!chair!at!our!Institute.!!


102! !

Project(Management( The!Project!Management!Department!provides!support!to!the!researchers.!It!helps!in!drafting!and!editing!public! proposals! and! private! initiatives! announced! in! open! calls,! incorporating! a! suitable! budget! into! the! design! according!to!the!anticipated!research!activities.!This!department!also!supports!scientists!with!management!and! human!resources!issues!related!to!the!implementation!of!their!projects.!Finally,!Project!Management!undertakes! various!administrative!and!financial!tasks!related!to!the!bases!of!projects.!! Project! financing! currently! constitutes! one! of! the! main! funding! resources! for! IC3.! The! Project! Management! Department,! together! with! the! Fundraising! Department,! help! IC3! scientists! in! obtaining! financing! for! new! projects,!enabling!IC3!to!continue!growing.!

PROJECTS"

Competitive" projects"based" ! on"open"calls"

CAT"

ESP"

EU"

SPONSORSHIP"&"PATRONAGE" Strategic!Sponsors:!Board!of!Trustees!

Individual" agreements" based"on" contracts" (no"calls)"

Honorary!Sponsors:!Business!Board! Sponsors! Contributors! Donors!

Project" Management"

Fundraising"

!

Finance( The! Finance! Department! is! responsible! for! providing! adequate! economic! and! financial! management! to! the! Institute,!generating!useful!information!that!can!be!used!in!decision!making!and!communicating!with!the!public! organization,!obtaining!a!yearly!opinion!on!the!audit!of!its!consolidated!financial!statements.!! More!specifically,!the!Financial!Department’s!duties!include:! •

Recording!and!processing!economic!and!financial!information!

Planning,!monitoring!and!analyzing!the!economic!budget,!liquid!assets!budget!and!investments!budget!

Internal!and!external!reporting!

Liquid!assets!management!

Tax!management.!


103! !

Staff(Members( The!members!of!the!departments!described!above!are:! •

Oriol!Palom,!General!Manager!

Mercè!Carrasco,!Finance!

Jordi!Gómez>Barba,!Accounting!

Franziska!Ewald!de!Aceves,!Corporate!Development!and!Fundraising!

Alicja!Grzegorzek,!Project!Management!!

Payam!Goorani,!IT,!Computing!and!Database!Administration!

Sara!Cervelló,!Administration!!

!


104! ! !

7 Institutional(Relations( ! Ever!since!IC3!was!founded,!the!Director!and!several!team!members!have!made!great!efforts!to!publicize!IC3!both! nationally! and! internationally,! and!thereby! increase!the!Institute’s! visibility.!These! endeavors! will! be!continued! and!expanded!over!coming!years!in!order!to!boost!external!institutional!collaborations.!!! By! 2010,! our! institutional! relations! have! ranged! from! presentations! and! joint! conferences! to! formalized! collaboration!agreements,!in!the!business!and!public!spheres,!with!the!following!institutions:! ! ! The!Catalan!Office!for!Climate!Change!(OCCC)! The!Catalan!Institute!for!Water!Research!(ICRA)! Inter>ministerial!Commission!for!Research!and!Technological!Innovation!(CIRIT)!! 22@!Network! ACC1Ó!>!TECNIO! European!Institute!of!Innovation!and!Technology!(EIT)! French!Research!Institute!for!Exploration!of!the!Sea!(IFREMER)! ESADE!Law!and!Business!School! ESADE!Institute!for!Social!Innovation! Abertis!! TECHFORCE! Transports!Metropolitans!de!Barcelona!(TMB)! Mango! European!Investment!Bank!(EIB)! Agbar>CETaqua!! ! ! The!tables!below!give!an!overview!of!research&collaborations!in!2009!and!2010.! ! !


105! ! Climate&Dynamics&and&Impacts&Unit&Collaborations&


106! ! Climate&Forecasting&Unit&Collaborations&

! !


107! ! Oceans&and&Atmosphere&Lab&Collaborations&

!


108! !


109! ! !

8 ANNEXES( !

Annex(I:(IC3(Staff(in(2010( !


110! !


111! !

Annex(II:(Projects( !

QWeCI:(Quantifying(Weather(and(Climate(Impacts(on(Health(in( Developing(Countries( !

Group&Structure& •

Principal!Investigator:!Xavier!Rodó!

Francisco!J.!Doblas>Reyes!

Karina!Laneri!

Carlos!Dommar!

Javier!García>Serrano!

Funding&Type& European!funded!project:!FP7:!Cooperation:!Environment!

Goal& •

Understanding!the!climate!drivers!of!the!vector>borne!diseases!malaria!and!Rift!Valley!fever,!and!certain! tick>borne!diseases,!all!of!which!have!major!health!and!economic!implications!for!humans!and!livestock!in! Africa,!at!a!more!fundamental!level!in!order!to!assist!with!managing!them!in!the!short!term!and!making! predictions!as!to!their!likely!future!impacts.!!

Developing! and! testing! the! methods! and! technology! required! for! an! integrated! decision! support! framework!for!health!impacts!of!climate!and!weather.!!

Bringing! the! world’s! best! integrated! weather/climate! forecasting! systems! together! with! heath! impacts! modeling! and! climate! change! research! groups! in! order! to! build! end>to>end! seamless! integration! of! climate!and!weather!information!for!quantifying!and!predicting!climate!and!weather!in!health!impacts!in! Africa.!

Project&Overview& QWeCI! is! a! consortium!of!13! research!and!academic!institutions! from! across!Africa!and! Europe!that!researches! infectious! vector>borne! diseases! present! in! Africa,! with! a! focus! on! epidemic! occurrences! affected! by! climate! variability.!The!project!brings!together!experts!in!climate,!disease!dynamics!and!public!health!sciences!to!tackle! some!of!the!greatest!public!health!challenges!faced!by!populations.!QWeCI!started!in!February!2010!and!will!end! in!July!2013.!!


112! ! The!project!is!coordinated!by!the!University!of!Liverpool!(UOL)!and!consists!of!seven!work!packages.!IC3’s!CFU!and! UDIC! are! involved! in! the! following! work! packages:! WP1.3! (Climate>disease! associations),! WP3.2! (Seamless! decadal! predictions! and! projections),! WP4.1! (Seamless! climate>disease! model! integrations)! and!WP7! (Management).!! For!further!information,!please!visit!the!project!webpage!at!www.liv.ac.uk/qweci/index.html!

Outreach& The!following!list!includes!some!of!the!dissemination!tools!that!will!be!used!during!this!project:! •

Website!

Brochure!

Twice!annual!newsletter!

Review! document! for! governmental! and! NGO! planners! concerning! up>to>date! knowledge! about! climate! driver! impact! on! target! disease! incidence! and! presenting! climate! vulnerabilities! for! endemic! and! epidemic! incidence! according!to!these!relationships.!

QWeCI! QWeCI!

!


113! !

FLUXPYR:(Global(Change(in(the(Pyrenees( !

Group&Structure& •

Researcher!Manager:!Josep>Anton!Morgiuí!

Mariví!Tello!

Roger!Curcoll!

Anna!Maria!Font!

Alba!Àgueda!

Funding&Type& European!funded!project:!INTERREG!

Goals& •

To! develop! a! cross>border! network! of! infrastructures! (e.g.! micro>meteorological! stations,! aerial! platforms)! and! experts! for! assessing! and! managing! water,! carbon! and! energy! fluxes! and! stocks! in! agricultural!and!pastoral!ecosystems!in!the!Pyrenees.!

To! combine! flux! measurements,! meteorological! data,! remote! sensing! techniques! and! modeling! to! produce! predictive! land! use,! productivity,! carbon! distribution! and! snow! cover! maps,! and! to! assess! the! impacts!of!climate!and!land!use!change!on!Pyrenean!ecosystems.!

To! ensure! the! creation! and! exchange! of! data,! knowledge! and! expertise! through! innovative! networking! and!cooperation!techniques,!and!to!facilitate!the!training!of!students,!technicians!and!researchers!in!the! fields!of!ecology!and!climate!change.!

To!guide!policies!and!local!actors!in!sustainably!managing!the!land!and!natural!resources!in!the!Pyrenees! (climate!change!mitigation!and!adaptation!strategies).!

To! raise! public! awareness! about! the! importance! of! reducing! greenhouse! gas! emissions,! decreasing! energy!consumption!and!managing!natural!resources!sustainably.!

To!strengthen!regional,!European!and!international!scientific!cooperation!in!the!field!of!climate!change.!

Project&Overview& FLUXPYR! is! a! network! of! infrastructures! and! multidisciplinary! experts! from! France,! Spain! and! Andorra! who! contribute!to!evaluating!and!managing!the!impacts!of!climate!and!land!use!changes!on!Pyrenean!ecosystems!and! their! inhabitants.! FLUXPYR! began! in! July! 2009! and! will! end! in! July! 2012.! It! operates! through! the! POCTEFA! Program.!

!


114! ! The!Project!promotes!the!installation!of!micrometeorological!and!hydrological!stations!(up!to!2000!m.a.s.l.),!the! launch! of! aircrafts! equipped! to! take! air! samples! and! aerial! photos,! the! analysis! and! interpretation! of! satellite! images,!etc.! FLUXPYR! enables!the! production!of! models!and! maps! of! soil!cover,!soil! carbon! and!water!content,! snow! cover! dynamics,! etc.,! and! its! outcomes! help! inform! climate! change! adaptation! and! mitigation! strategies.! Moreover,! FLUXPYR! fosters! the! exchange! of! knowledge! and! experience! and! staff! training,! creating! public! awareness!of!the!causes!and!consequences!of!climate!change!and!ways!of!dealing!with!it.! FLUXPYR! is! coordinated! by! The! Forest! Science! Center! of! Catalonia! and! integrates! ecosystem,! atmospheric! and! satellite!studies.!Its!work!is!organized!into!five!complementary!multidisciplinary!Working!Groups!(WGs).!IC3’s!LAO! is!involved!in!estimating!regional!CO2!using!aircraft!platforms!and!continuous!methods.! For!further!information,!please!visit!the!project!website!at:!http://fluxpyr.eu/eng/index.htm!

Integration!

! NG

RES EA RC H!

I AIN TR

TRANSFER!

Satellite!studies!

Atmospheric!studies!(IC3)!

Ecosystem!studies!

Stocks!&!function!

Fluxes!


115! !

KAWASAKI:(Kawasaki(Disease(R(Disentangling(the(Role(of( Climate(in(the(Outbreaks(( !

Group&Structure& •

Principal!Investigator:!Xavier!Rodó!

Josep>Anton!Morguí!

Joan!Ballester!

Roger!Curcoll!

Carlos!Dommar!

Funding&Type& Privately!funded!project:!La!Marató!de!TV3!Foundation!

Goals& •

To!create!a!worldwide!database!about!Kawasaki!disease!incidence!

To!diagnose!the!structure!of!Kawasaki!disease!in!its!different!morbidity!temporal!series.!!

To!search! for! and! identify! the! process! that! regulates!Kawasaki! disease! incidence!in! those! places!where! the!illness!has!a!higher!incidence.!To!describe!the!illness’!seasonal!and!interannual!mechanisms.!

To!analyze!the!big!scale!climate!patterns!and,!if!necessary,!to!analyze!the!synoptic!situations!at!regional! level!that!are!associated!to!epidemic!illness!peaks.!!

To!create!a!prediction!model!for!the!Kawasaki!disease!in!places!with!a!greater!incidence!of!this!illness,!as! far!as!is!possible!and!depending!on!the!results!obtained!from!the!sections!above.!

All!these!objectives!are!ultimately!focused!on!building!the!basis!for!identifying!the!agent!responsible!for!Kawasaki! disease.!

Project&Overview& The!Kawasaki!project!is!an!international!research!consortium!of!research!and!academic!institutions!from!across! Europe.! The! consortium! works! together,! studying! the! origin! of! Kawasaki! disease! in! depth.! According! to! preliminary! results! obtained! by! a! study! carried! out! by! the! director! of! this! project,! Kawasaki! disease! seems! to! have! an! environmental! cause.! This! project! focuses! on! analyzing! this! probability! by! creating! and! interpreting! a! Kawasaki! disease!database.! The! most! up>to>date! databases! and!those! with! a!higher! resolution!are! analyzed! in! order!to!find!signs!of!the!disease.!IC3!has!created!some!specific!analysis!techniques!for!this!purpose.! The!Kawasaki!project!started!in!March!2009!and!is!expected!to!finish!by!February!2012.!


116! !

Š!Deborah! Copaken!Kogan!


117! !

MED3D:(High(Resolution(3D(Velocity(Field(Reconstruction(from( Satellite(Sea(Surface(Temperature(Observations(in(the( Mediterranean(Sea( !

Group&Structure& •

Principal!Investigator:!Jordi!Isern>Fontanet!

Shujie!Ma!

Mahesh!Shinde!

Cristina!González>Haro!

Funding&Type& Nationally!funded!project:!Sustainability!and!Innovation,!Ministry!of!Science!and!Innovation!

Goals& •

To!develop!a!method!for!reconstructing!three>dimensional!velocity!fields!from!single!SST!images!that!are! well>adapted!to!characteristics!of!the!Mediterranean.!

To!explore!the!surface!circulation!in!the!Mediterranean!Sea!at!scales!down!to!100!km.!

Project&Overview& Ocean! currents! are! a! key! element! in! understanding! many! oceanic! and! climatic! phenomena,! and! knowledge! of! them! is! crucial! for! navigation! and! operational! applications.! Therefore,! a! key! problem! in! oceanography! is! the! estimation!of!the!synoptic!3D!velocity!field,!which!is!currently!only!available!from!expensive!and!labor>intensive! in! situ! measurements.! Currently,! altimeter! measurements! allow! us! to! reconstruct! the! 2D! velocity! field! of! the! ocean's! surface! with! resolutions! of! the! order! of! 100>150! km.! However,! sea! surface! temperature! (SST)! observations!in!the!infrared!spectrum!have!shown!the!ocean!is!very!active!at!scales!between!10!and!100!km.!At! present! it! is! very! difficult! to! extract! surface! velocities! at! these! scales! and! it! is! impossible! to! access! vertical! velocities.!However,!recent!advances!in!our!understanding!of!upper!layer!ocean!dynamics!suggest!that!these!can! be!modeled!with!an!effective!version!of!the!Surface!Quasi>Geostrophic!(eSQG)!equations.! The! validity! of! this! approach! means! that! in! situations! where! the! SST! anomaly! is! representative! of! the! density! anomaly!below!the!mixed!layer,!the!stream!function!and!density!anomaly!can!be!reconstructed!for!the!first!300> 500! m! with! resolutions! of! 10! km! from! a! single! SST! image.! Then,! the! quasi>geostrophic! vertical! velocity! can! be! diagnosed! from! these! fields.! The! Mediterranean! is! an! area! that! could! benefit! significantly! from! the! use! of! SST! imagery! to! study! the! surface! circulation! at! scales! below! 100! km.! On! the! one! hand,! the! percentage! of! pixels! without! clouds! is! quite! high.! On! the! other! hand,! an! important! part! of! the! mesoscale! dynamics! is! not! readily! observable! with! existing! altimeters! since! the! Rossby! radius! of! deformation! is! 10>15! km.! Furthermore,! Mediterranean! circulation! has! been! identified! as! a! potentially! important! element! in! improving! seasonal! forecasting!in!the!area.!!


118! ! The! MED3D! project! is! exclusively! carried! out! by! IC3! researchers! that! investigate! conditions! where! the! eSQG! approximation! can! be!used! to! recover! the! velocity!field! in! the! Mediterranean.!They! also! study! how!to! improve! the!ability!to!reconstruct!the!horizontal!velocity!field!and!validate!it!with!in!situ!and!satellite!data,!and!propose!to! investigate!the!reconstruction!of!vertical!velocities.!Finally,!they!propose!to!use!these!techniques!to!recover!the! eddy!kinetic!energy!and!vorticity!variance!from!SST!data!available!from!the!AVHRR!Pathfinder!database,!and!to! study!their!spatial!and!temporal!variability.! This!project!started!in!January!2010!and!is!expected!to!finish!in!December!2012.!

Preliminary&Results/Accomplishments& •

Developing!a!methodology!that!enables!reconstruction!of!horizontal!and!vertical!velocities!in!the!ocean! from!a!single!SST!satellite!image!and!altimetric!measurements.!

Developing!a!methodology!to!reconstruct!currents!from!noisy!data.!

Assessing!the!validity!of!surface!quasi>geostrophic!equations!to!describe!the!upper!ocean!dynamics!in!the! Mediterranean!Sea.!

Impacts&and&Social&Benefits& •

Better! knowledge! of! ocean! currents! impacts! almost! all!disciplines!in! oceanography!(physical,!biological,! etc.)!and!offshore!activities!(e.g.!navigation,!safety,!control!of!pollutant!spillage).!

Current! ocean! models! have! spatial! resolutions! that! are! far! beyond! the! spatial! resolutions! of! ocean! currents! measured! by! any! technique! (e.g.! altimetric).! This! project! will! provide,! for! the! first! time,! information!about!surface!currents!in!the!Mediterranean!Sea!at!resolutions!high!enough!to!validate!the! ocean!models!that!are!currently!being!developed.!

Publications& Capet,! IsernZFontanet,! Colas,! Klein,! Chapron! (2010).! “Toward! a! practical! characterization! of! submesoscale! oceanic!regimes.”!Journal'of'Physical'Oceanography.! IsernZFontanet,!Hascoet,!Chapron!(2010).!“Reconstruction!of!horizontal!and!vertical!velocities!from!nosiy!satellite! data.”!J.'Geophys.'Res.'


119! !

CLIMRRUN:(Climate(Local(Information(in(the(Mediterranean( Region(Responding(to(User(Needs( !

Group&Structure& •

Principal!Investigator:!Francisco!Doblas>Reyes!

Operations!Coordination:!Melanie!Davis!

Xavier!Rodó!

Joan!Ballester!

Danila!Volpi!

Hui!Du!!

Oriol!Mula!

Funding&Type& European!funded!project:!FP7:!Cooperation:!ENVIRONMENT!

Goals& •

To! design! and! implement! a! protocol! for! optimizing! the! two>way! information! transfer! between! climate! experts!and!stakeholders.!

To!advance!the!science!underpinning!the!production!of!detailed!climate!information!at!regional!to!local! scales,!tailored!for!stakeholder!needs.!

To!test!the!protocol!by!applying!it!to!a!number!of!real!world!case!studies.!

Project&Overview& CLIM>RUN!is!a!consortium!of!European>wide!climate!institutions!coordinated!by!ENEA!(Italy)!and!consisting!of!ten! work! packages.! IC3’s! Climate! Forecasting! Unit! (CFU)! is! leading! CLIM>RUN! work! package! 7.! This! work! package! focuses! on! analyzing! the! climate! information! required! over! a! time! period! of! one! to! 30! years! in! areas! where! renewable! energy! and! electricity! generating! technologies! are! rapidly! developing.! Furthermore,! it! aims! to! illustrate! how! climate! information! can! play! an! important! role! in! future! changes! and! developments! within! the! energy!sector.!The! case!study! regions!of! interest!in!this!WP!are!Spain,! Morocco! and!Cyprus.!CLIM>RUN!aims! to! improve! the! provision! of! adequate! climate! information! that! is! relevant! to! and! usable! by! different! sectors! of! society,!such!as!policymakers,!industry!and!cities.!Unlike!current!approaches,!CLIM>RUN!will!develop!a!bottom>up! protocol!directly!involving!stakeholders!early!on!in!the!process,!in!order!to!encourage!information!transfer!with! experts!and!identify!clearly!defined!needs!at!regional!to!local!scale.!Information!provided!by!stakeholders!will!also! be! used! to! improve! climate! modeling! so! climate! research! can! optimally! respond! to! specific! stakeholder! needs,! and!be!tested!and!assessed!via!relevant,!real!world!case!studies.!These!involve!interdependent!sectors!(tourism,! fire,!energy)!affected!by!climatic!processes.! The! region! of! interest! for! the! project! is! the! Greater! Mediterranean! area.! In! Spain,! the! work! will! focus! on! hydropower! and! solar! power! plants.! IC3! will! make! up! the! local! team! along! with! engineers! investigating! the! potential!and!needs!of!the!energy!sector.!CLIM>RUN!is!therefore!also!intended!to!plant!the!seed!for!the!formation! of!a!Mediterranean!climate!service!network,!which!would!eventually!converge!into!a!pan>European!network.!


120! !

Impact& •

Improving! the! detail! and! level! of! certainty! in! climate! information! including! predictions/outlooks! that! could!be!of!substantial!benefit!to"many!climate>sensitive!sectors!in!the!Mediterranean!region!in!adapting! to!and!mitigating!the"impacts!of!climate!variability!and!change.!

Identifying!relevant!climate!services,!particularly!for!the!energy!and!tourism!sectors.!

Planting! the! seed! for! the! formation! of! a! Mediterranean>wide! climate! service! network! that! would! eventually!be!part!of!a!pan>European!network.!

For!further!information,!please!visit!the!project’s!website!at:!http://www.climrun.eu/Welcome.html!

Outreach& The!following!dissemination!tools!will!be!used!during!this!project:! •

Website:! developing! a! frontend! web! climate! service! as! a! multiuser! platform! with! several! levels! of! information,!connected!to!the!project!database.!

Workshops:!this!project!is!based!on!the!two>way!interaction!between!stakeholders!and!climate!experts;! the! workshops! are! one! of! the! main! tools! as! detailed! in! WP4! and! in! the! description! of! the! case>studies! methodology.!

Reports!and!reviews:!two!types!of!report!will!be!produced:! o

Web!reports!of!key!findings!from!the!workshops!

o

Published!reports!and!popular!publications!in!hard!copy!and!online.!

Electronic!newsletters.!

Publications.!

Public!awareness:! o

Popular!publications!in!hard!copy!and!online.!

o

Presentation!of!the!Symposium’s!conclusions!to!the!European!Commission.!

The! project! will! have! a! strong! focus! on! development! and! training! for! a! new! professional! expertise! lying! at! the! border! between! climate! science! and! stakeholder! application.! To! this! end,! a! regular! summer! school! will! be! organized!by!the!consortium!at!ICTP!to!take!advantage!of!its!experience,!facilities!and!international!connections! (particularly!with!scientists!from!developing!countries).! Surface!temperature,!probability!most!likely!tercile!(%)!Nov!2010>Oct!2015!


121! !

Viroclime:(Impact(of(Climate(Change(on(the(Transport,(Fate( and(Risk(Management(of(Viral(Pathogens(in(Water( !

Group&Structure& •

Principal!Investigator:!Xavier!Rodó!

Emiliano!Gelati!

Carlos!J.!Dommar!

Funding&Type& European!funded!project:!FP7:!Cooperation:!ENVIRONMENT!

Goals& •

To! report! on! the! performance! characterization! of! methods! developed! in! the! EU,! International! Cooperation! Partner! Countries! (ICPC)! and! US! laboratories! for! detecting! waterborne! human! pathogenic! viruses!in!environmental!“hot!spots”.!

To!report!on!the!performance!characterization!of!methods!developed!in!the!EU,!ICPC!and!US!laboratories! for!the!concentration!of!human!pathogenic!viruses!in!aquatic!environments!in!environmental!“hot!spots”.!

To!report!on!the!development!of!improved!virological!tools!for!microbial!source!tracking.!

To!produce!an!operational!model!forced!by!environmental!and!water!management!changes!at!the!target! sites!that!can!be!calibrated!to!show!changes!in!virus!levels!and!to!facilitate!changes!in!water!management! strategies.!

To!provide!a!report!on!18>month!surveillance!case!studies!of!emergent!potentially!pathogenic!viruses!at! five!environmentally!sensitive!sites!in!Spain,!Hungary,!Sweden,!Greece!and!Brazil.!

To!report!on!any!relationships!linking!target!virus!incidence!with!incidence!of!the!current!faecal!indicators! Escherichia!coli!(EC)!and!intestinal!enterococci!(IE)!and!to!assess!the!suitability!of!current!faecal!indicators! in!the!face!of!changing!climate!scenarios.!

Project&Overview& VIROCLIME!is!an! international!research! consortium! of! eight! research!and!academic! institutions!from! Spain,! UK,! Greece,!Sweden,!Brazil!and!Hungary.!The!project!started!in!January!2010!and!will!finish!in!December!2012.!! VIROCLIME!was!designed!as!a!deliberate!integration!of!virology!and!climate!change!science,!and!has!been!created! recognizing! that! both! disciplines! must! interact! throughout! the! project! in! order! to! achieve! its! objectives.! This! integrated!information!considers!the!potential!effects!on!the!health!of!individuals!in!these!areas!who!may!use!the! water,!either!for!recreation!or!as!drinking!water.!! The! use! of! hydrological! models! to! determine! the! effects! of! climate! change! on! the! variation! in! viral! flux,! and! therefore! in! the! risk! associated! with! viral! disease,! comprises! a! novel! approach! to! the! management! of! water> related!disease.!


122! ! The! driving! scientific! and! policy! imperatives! of! the! VIROCLIME! proposal! have! three! components.! Firstly,! that! viruses!will!retain!the!pre>eminent!role!in!water>related!gastro>intestinal!disease!in!any!climate!change!scenario! due! to! the! almost! ubiquitous! presence! of! some! human>derived! viruses! in! sewage! and! waste! water! and! their! environmental!robustness;! secondly,! that! although! individual! and! largely! qualitative!techniques! exist,! there! are! currently!few!tools!for!routine!and!quantitative!virological!environmental!monitoring!to!provide!credible!health! risk! quantification;! and! thirdly,! that! providing! modelers! with! baseline! virological! data! from! different! environments!will!underpin!prediction!of!how!virus!levels!will!change!as!a!result!of!climate!change,!in!addition!to! the!potential!population!impact!of!virus!levels!on!disease!burden!and!potential!health!gain.! For!further!information!about!this!project,!please!visit!the!project’s!website!at:!http://www.viroclime.org/!

Impact& The!principal!policy!application!for!the!project!outputs!will!be:! •

To! facilitate! the! first! evidence>based! assessment! of! the! health! impacts! of! climate! change! at! drainage! basin! level! caused! by! virological! pathogens.! This! will! underpin! appropriate! policies! regarding! the! costs! and! benefits! –! specifically! public! health! costs! –! of! climate! change,! appropriate! resource! allocations! of! effluent!and!receiving!water!quality!and!public!risk!avoidance!by!regulating!activities!and!exclusion.!

To!use!the!microbial!source!tracking!(MST)!tools!that!have!been!developed!to!inform!and!provide!the!first! evidence>based! tools! for! sustainable! and! integrated! remediation! of! both! diffuse! and! point! sources! of! microbial!pathogenic!pollution!through!the!mechanisms!established! by!the!Water!Framework!Directive.! These! same! MST! tools! will! also! provide! quantifications! of! the! proportionate! contributions! of! current! faecal! indicator! bacterial! compliance! parameters! at! regulatory! compliance! locations,! again! having! significant!potential!benefits!for!designing!remediation!policies!seeking!to!reduce!microbial!pollution.!

Outreach& The!following!dissemination!tools!will!be!used!during!this!project:! •

The!website!will!set!out!the!background!to!the!project!and!other!relevant!information!about!Viroclime.!

Electronic!newsletters.!

An!information!leaflet!will!be!produced!at!the!end!of!the!project.!

Publications.!

There!will!be!a!technology!transfer!workshop!that!will!be!dedicated!to!informing!the!scientific!community! and!those!interested!in!policy>making!about!the!project’s!findings.!

!

©!ViROCLIME!


123! !

ClimaDat:(Network(of(Climate(Measurement(Stations( !

Group&Structure& •

Principal!Investigator:!Xavier!Rodó!!

Researcher!Manager:!Josep!Anton!Morgui!!

Operations!Coordination:!Rosa!Arias!!

Education!and!Community!Outreach!Manager:!Miquel!Àngel!Rodríguez!!

Sonia!Liñán!!

Roger!Curcoll!!

Alba!Agueda!!

Laura!Sánchez!!

Paola!Occhipinti!!

Oscar!Batet!!

Funding&Type& Privately!funded!project:!”la!Caixa”!Foundation!

Goals& •

To!study!regions!with!a!high!probability!of!being!affected!by!harsh!climate!changes!and!their!relationship! with!biosphere!processes.!These!regions!will!become!ideal!sensors!for!the!study!of!climate!change.!!

To!obtain!long!series!of!continuous,!highly!accurate,!near!real!time!climatic!and! biogeochemical!data! in! specific!natural!systems!(including!karsts,!deltas,!islands!and!high!mountain!areas):!

o

With!different!climatic!influences,!

o

With!a!directed!focus!on!the!study!of!taxes,!transport,!ocean>biosphere>atmosphere!interactions,! GHGs,!atmospheric!structure!and!ecosystem!answers,!

o

From!global!dynamic!to!local!responses,!

o

Enabling!satellite!calibrations!and!initialization!of!regional!models.!

Creating!specific!campaigns!in!order!to!study!concrete!elements!with!scientific!importance.!

Project&Overview& An!agreement!between!the!”la!Caixa”!Foundation!and!IC3!was!established!on!November!9,!2010!with!the!aim!of! creating!a!network!comprising!eight!stations!for!climate!research!and!observation!(sites).!The!sites!will!be!located! in! critical! or! particularly! sensitive! natural! systems! due! to! their! emplacement,! physiographic! characteristics! or! peculiarity!of!their!ecosystems.!The!network!will!be!a!way!to!directly!observe!climate!change!and!its!impacts!on!a! regional!scale,!when!a!particular!site!is!considered,!and!on!a!global!scale,!when!the!entire!network!is!considered.!!


124! ! This!network!will!become!an!international!benchmark,!while!in!Spain!all!relevant!data!will!be!openly!accessible.! The!data!will!be!entered!in!near!real>time'international!data!bases,!which!will!give!a!better!understanding!of!the! interrelation! between! the! climate! system! and! biosphere! processes.! The! sites! will! be! located! in! seven! Spanish! autonomous!regions!(Catalonia,!Basque!Country,!Galicia,!Castile!and!Leon,!Andalusia,!the!Balearic!Islands!and!the! Canary!Islands),!and!set!up!is!due!to!be!completed!on!December!31,!2012,!with!the!project!initially!lasting!until! December! 2015.! The! network! has! been! created! with! the! aim! of! promoting! interdisciplinary! collaboration! with! other! scientists! interested! in! climate! and! hydrology! research.! Accordingly,! temporary! research! stays! will! be! promoted.!

Preliminary&Results/Accomplishments& Establishing!cooperation!agreements!between!IC3,!the!”la!Caixa”!Foundation!and!the!regional!governments!of!the! seven!Spanish!communities!where!the!sites!will!be!installed!between!2011!and!2012,!initially!until!December!31,! 2015,!with!the!aim!of!continuing!for!20!additional!years.!

Impact& The! creation! of! the! ClimaDat! network! –! consisting! of! eight! research! sites! located! in! sensitive,! natural! systems! throughout! Spain! for! studying! the! relationship! between!climatic!and! biogeochemical!processes! –! will! provide! a! unique!view!as!an!international!benchmark.!


125! !

Outreach& This! project’s! outreach! activities! will! start! at! the! end! of! 2011,! since! it! is! still! ongoing.! The! educational! and! dissemination!actions!that!will!be!generated!regarding!the!data!obtained!from!ClimaDat!network!sites!include!a! reception! system,! and! a! data! processing! and! data! distribution! system.! The! data! will! be! freely! accessible! to! the! international!scientific!community!and!the!general!public!in!near!real>time.!In!addition,!educational!material!will! be!created!and!will!be!focused!on!promoting!active!social!dissemination!with!the!aim!of!making!society!aware!of! climate!change!and!its!impacts.!! ! The&following&actions&have&been&planned&specifically:& •

Preparing,! installing!and! maintaining! informative! exhibition!panels,!plus! small! data! visualization! centers! at!ClimaDat!sites.!

Designing,!constructing!and!maintaining!an!exhibition!at!CosmoCaixa!Barcelona!and!CosmoCaixa!Madrid.!

Creating!educational!workshops!aimed!at!both!young!people!and!older!people.!

Designing!and!managing!data!distribution!from!the!control!center!at!IC3!to!the!CosmoCaixa!museums!and! project!website.!

Creating! and! maintaining! an! online! channel! about! communicating! and! disseminating! the! ClimaDat! network.!The!online!channel!will!use!Web!2.0!technology!for!managing!its!followers.!

A!project!sponsored!by!

&

In!collaboration!with!


126! !

Annex(III:(Publications( IC3&researchers&published&19&articles&in&international&peer5reviewed&journals&between&2009&and&2010.&& IC3!scientists!are!indicated!in!bold.! ! 1.

Ballester,"J.,"Rodó,"X.!and!Giorgi,!F.!(2009)!"Future!changes!in!Central!Europe!heat!waves!expected!to!mostly! follow!summer!mean!warming."!Climate'Dynamics.!DOI:!10.1007/s00382>009>0641>5.! http://www.springerlink.com/content/50p7657r14056011/!

! 2.

Ballester" J.,! Giorgi,! F.! and! Rodó," X.! (2009)! "Changes! in! European! temperature! extremes! can! be! predicted! from!changes!in!PDF!central!statistics."!Climatic'Change'Letters.!DOI:!10.1007/s10584>009>9758>0.! http://www.springerlink.com/content/p5242322l832n5v8/!

! 3.

Bartumeus,"F.!and!Catalan,!J.!(2009)!"Optimal!search!behavior!and!classic!foraging!theory."!Journal'of'Physics' A:'Mathematical'and'Theoretical,!42,!434002.!DOI:!10.1088/1751>8113/42/43/434002.! http://iopscience.iop.org/1751J8121/42/43/434002!

! 4.

Bartumeus,"F.!(2009)!"Behavioral!intermittence,!Lévy!patterns,!and!randomness!in!animal!movement."!Oikos! 118:!488–494.!DOI:!10.1111/j.1600>0706.2009.17313.x.! http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600J0706.2009.17313.x/abstract!

! 5.

Reynolds,!A.!and!Bartumeus," F.!(2009)!"Optimizing!the!success!of!random!destructive!searches:!Lévy!walks! can!outperform!ballistic!motions."!J.'Theor.'Biol!260:98>103.!DOI:!10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.05.033.! http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022519309002495!

! 6.

Pasternak,! Z.,! Bartumeus," F." and! Grasso,! F.! (2009)! "Lévy>taxis:! a! novel,! search! strategy! for! finding! odor! plumes! in! flow>dominated! environments."! 2009' Journal' of' Physics' A:' Mathematical' and' Theoretical.! 42,! 434010.!!DOI:10.1088/1751>8113/42/43/434010.! http://iopscience.iop.org/1751J8121/42/43/434010!

! 7.

Koster,! R.D.,! Mahanama,! S.P.P.,! Yamada,! T.J.,! Balsamo,! G.,! Vitart,! F.,! Berg,! A.A.,! Drewitt,! G.,! Boisserie,! M.,! Dirmeyer,!P.A.,!Guo,!Z.,!DoblasZReyes,!F.J.,!Gordon,!C.T.,!Jeong,!J.>H.,!Lawrence,!D.M.,!Lee,!W.>S.,!Li,!Z.,!Luo,! L.,!Malyshev,!S.,!Merryfield,!W.J.,!Seneviratne,!S.I.,!Stanelle,!T.,!van!den!Hurk,!B.J.J.M.!and!Wood,!E.F.!(2010)! "The! contribution! of! land! surface! initialization! to! subseasonal! forecast! skill:! First! results! from! multi>model! experiment."!Geophysical'Research'Letters,!37,!L02402.!DOI:!10.1029/2009GL041677.! http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009GL041677.shtml!


127! ! 8.

Klein,!P.,!IsernZFontanet,"J.,!Lapeyre,!G.,!Roullet,!G.,!Danioux,!E.,!Chapron,!B.,!Le!Gentil,!S.,!Sasaki,!H.!(2009)! "Diagnosis! of! vertical! velocities! in! the! upper! ocean! from! high! resolution! sea! surface! height."! Geophysical' Research'Letters,!36,!L12603.!DOI:!10.1029/2009GL038359.! http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL038359.shtml!

! 9.

S>Cash,! B.,! Rodó,! X." and" Kinter! III,! J." (2009)! "Non>ENSO! variability! and! the! regional! climate! of! Bangladesh:! Implications!for!cholera!risk."!COLA!Tech.!Rep.!260,!Center!for!Ocean–Land–Atmosphere!Studies.! ftp://www.iges.org/pub/ctr/ctr_260.pdf!

! 10. Peters,! W.,! Krol,! M.C.,! van! der! Werf,! G.R.,! Houweling,! S.,! Jones,! C.D.,! Hughes,! J.,! Schaefer,! K.,! Masarie,! K.,! Jacobson,! A.,! Miller,! J.B.,! Cho,! C.H.,! Ramonet,! M.,! Schmidt,! M.,! Ciattaglia,! L.,! Apadula,! F.,! Heltai,! D.,! Meinhardt,!F.,!Di!Sarra,!Piacentino,!S.,!A.G.,!Sferlazzo,!D.,!Aalto,!T.,!Hatakka,!J.,!Strom,!J.,!Haszpra,!L.,!Meijer,! H.A.J.,! van! der! Laan,! S.,! Neubert,! R.E.M.,! Jordan,! Rodó," X.," Morguí,! J.ZA.," A.,! Vermeulen,! A.T.,! Popa,! E.,! Rozanski,! K.,! Zimnoch,! M.,! Manning,! A.,! Leuenberger,! M.,! Uglietti,! Dolman,! A.J.,! C.,! Ciais,! P.,! Heimann,! M.,! and!Tans,!P.P.! (2009)!"Seven! years!of!recent!European!net!terrestrial!carbon!dioxide!exchange!constrained! by! atmospheric! observations."! Global' Change' Biology,! 16! (4),! 1317>1337.! DOI:! 10.1111/j.1365> 2486.2009.02078.x.! http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365J2486.2009.02078.x/abstract' ! 11. Cash,!Benjamin!A.,!Rodo," X.!and!Kinter,!James!L.,!III!(2009)!"Links!between!Tropical!Pacific!SST!and!Cholera! Incidence!in!Bangladesh:!Role!of!the!Western!Tropical!and!Central!Extratropical!Pacific".!Journal'of'Climate,! 22,!7,!1641>1660.!DOI:!10.1175/2008JCLI2177.1! http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2177.1' ' 12. Marcé,! R.,! RodríguezZArias,! M.A.," García,! J.C.! and! Armengol,! J.! (2010)! "El! Niño! Southern! Oscillation! and! Climate! Trends! Impact! Reservoir! Water! Quality."! Global' Change' Biology.! DOI:! 10.1111/j.1365> 2486.2010.02163.x.! http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365J2486.2010.02163.x/suppinfo! ! 13. Pueyo," S.,! Graça,! P.M.L.A.,! Barbosa,! R.I.,! Cots,! R.,! Cardona,! E.! and! Fearnside,! P.M.! (2010)! "Testing! for! criticality! in! ecosystem! dynamics:! the! case! of! Amazonian! rainforest! and! savanna! fire."! Ecology' Letters! 13:793>802.!DOI:!10.1111/j.1461>0248.2010.01497.! http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461J0248.2010.01497.x/abstract! ! 14. Font," A.,"Morguí," J.A.," Curcoll," R.,!Pouchet,!I.,!Casals,!I.!and!Rodó," X."(2010)!"Daily!carbon!surface!fluxes!in! the! West! Ebre! (Ebro)! watershed! from! aircraft! profiling! on! late! June! 2007."! Tellus' B,! 62B:! 427>440.! DOI:!10.1111/j.1600>0889.2010.00469.x.! http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600J0889.2010.00469.x/abstract! !


128! ! 15. Font," A.,! Morguí,! J.ZA." and! Rodó,! X." (2010)! "Physical! atmospheric! structure! and! tropospheric! mixing! information! in! vertical! profiles! of! atmospheric! CO2! mixing! ratios"! Journal' of' Geophysical' Research,! 115,! D19308,!DOI:!10.1029/2010JD014060.! http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010JD014060.shtml" ! 16. Font," A.,! Morguí,! J.ZA." and! Rodó,! X." (2010)! "Assessing! the! regional! surface! influence! through! Backward! Lagrangian! Dispersion! Models! for! aircraft! CO2! vertical! profiles! observations! in! NE! Spain."! Atmospheric' Chemistry'and'Physics,!11,!1659>1670,!DOI:!10.5194/acp>11>1659>2011.!! http://www.atmosJchemJphys.net/11/1659/2011/acpJ11J1659J2011.html! ! 17. Ballester," J.,! RodríguezZArias,! M.A." and! Rodó,! X." (2010)!"A!new!extratropical! tracer! describing!the!role!of! the!western!Pacific!in!the!onset!of!El!Niño:!Implications!for!ENSO!understanding!and!forecasting."!Journal'of' Climate,!24,!1425–1437.!DOI:!10.1175/2010JCLI3619.1.! http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3619.1?journalCode=clim! ! 18. Bartumeus," F." (2010)" "Fishery! discards! impact! on! seabird! movement! patterns! at! regional! scales."! Current' Biology,!20,!215>222!DOI:!10.1016/j.cub.2009.11.073.! http://www.cell.com/currentJbiology/abstract/S0960J9822(09)02160J5! ! 19. Philippon,!N.,!DoblasZReyes,!F.J."and!Ruti,!P.!(2010).!"Skill,!reproducibility!and!potential!predictability!of!the! West!African!monsoon!in!coupled!GCMs."!Climate'Dynamics,!35,!53>74,!DOI:!10.1007/s00382>010>0856>5.!! http://www.springerlink.com/content/k75rt60615576716/!


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Annex(IV:(Events( 11/05/2009" Barcelona! Climate! Change! Talks! 2009! Parallel! Events:! IC3! Conference,! "What’s! at! stake! in! Copenhagen?! What’s! beyond!Copenhagen?"! ! 01/12/2010" IC3!Talk:!Francisco!Doblas>Reyes,!"Dynamical!Ensemble!Climate!Forecasting"! ! 02/01/2010" IC3!Talk:!Kristian!Morgensen!(ECMWF,!Reading,!United!Kingdom),!"NEMOVAR:!The!future!ocean!data!assimilation! system!at!ECMWF"! ! 02/09/2010" IC3!Talk:!Jordi!Font!(Institute!of!Marine!Sciences,!CSIC,!Spain),!"SMOS:!The!first!space!mission!trying!to!measure! oceanic!salinity"! ! 02/16/2010" IC3! Talk:! Alberto! Carrassi! (Royal! Meteorological! Institute! of! Belgium),! "Data! assimilation! for! chaotic! dynamics:! From!the!initial!condition!to!model!error!control"! ! 02/24/2010" IC3!Talk:!Manfred!Lange!(EEWRC,!Cyprus),!"Climate!research!and!applications!at!EEWRC!Cyprus"! ! 02/25/2010" "Cuidem' la' terra"! ("Caring! for! the! Earth")! talk! series:! Josep>Anton! Morguí,! "What! do! scientists! measure! for! climate!change?"!at!Can!Rajoler! ! 03/09/2010" "Mataró' fa' recerca' sobre' el' canvi' climatic"! ("Mataró! researches! climate! change")! Talk:! Francisco! Doblas>Reyes,! "Dynamical!Ensemble!Climate!Forecasting"! ! 03/23/2010" IC3! Talk:! Josep! Lluís! Pelegrí! (Institute! of! Marine! Sciences,! CSIC,! Spain),! "On! the! transitions! between! quasi> equilibrium!states!of!the!conveyor!belt"!


130! ! 04/06/2010" IC3! Talk:! Renato! Vitolo! (College! of! Engineering,! Mathematics! and! Physical! Sciences,! University! of! Exeter,! UK),! "Clustering!of!storms"! " 05/15/2010" IC3!Talk:!Andreas!Weigel!(Meteoswiss,!Switzerland),!"Multimodels!on!seasonal!and!multi>decadal!time>scales"! ! 05/13/2010" IC3! Talk:! Lüder! von! Bremen! (Forwind,! Oldenburg,! Germany),! "Towards! the! Simulation! of! a! 100%! Renewable! Power!System!in!Europe"! ! 05/18/2010" IC3! Talk:! José! Antonio! García>Moya! (AEMET,! Spain),! "Ensembles' Multimodelo' para' Predicción' a' Corto' Plazo.' El' ejemplo'de'AEMET"!("Multimodel!Ensembles!for!Short>Term!Prediction.!The!AEMET!example")! ! 05/25/2010"" IC3!TALK:!Luis!Rodrigues,!"Climate!of!the!month:!April!2010"! Inauguration!of!the!"Barcelona!–!Valencia!–!Palma"!exhibition!at!the!Barcelona!Centre!for!Contemporary!Culture! ! 06/15/2010" IC3!Talk:!Carlo!Bontempo,!"Climate!Change!and!the!Nile!Basin"! ! 06/22/2010" Anella! Científica! 2010! Meeting–! Availability! of! network! resources:! Oriol! Palom! "Presentation! of! IC3! as! a! new! institution!attached!to!CESCA"!at!L’Auditori!ESMUC!building!! IC3! Talk:! Bart! Ostro! (CREAL,! Spain),! "The! Effects! of! Increasing! Temperature! and! Air! Conditioning! on! Hospital! Admissions:!Results!from!California"! ! 07/07/2010" IC3!Talk:!Shlomit!Paz!(Department!of!Geography!and!Environmental!Studies,!University!of!Haifa,!Israel),!"Climate! change!impact!on!infectious!diseases!eruptions–!recent!case!studies"! ! 09/07/2010" IC3!Talk:!Javier!García,!"Study!of!atmospheric!teleconnections!associated!with!oceanic!forcings.!Influence!on!the! European!climate"!


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09/14/2010" IC3!Talk:! Miguel! Bernal! (IEO!now! @!Rutgers),! "From! Climate!to!Fish!to!Fishers:! an!integrated!approach!to!small! pelagic!fisheries"!! ! 09/16/2010" IC3!Special!Talk:!Dan!Cayan,!"Why!California!needs!an!ongoing!climate!change!assessment"! ! 09/21/2010" IC3!Talk:!Jean!Tournadre:!"Small!iceberg!detection!in!climatology"! ! 09/28/2010" IC3! Talk:! Carlos! Dommar,! "Adaptive! systems! in! ecology,! two! examples:! infection! in! social! networks! and! coevolution!in!predator>prey!systems"! ! 11/15/2010" IC3!Talk:!Emiliano!Gelati!(Department!of!Environmental!Engineering,!Technical!University!of!Denmark),!"Reservoir! optimisation!using!El!Niño!forecasts"! ! 11/23/2010" IC3! Talk:! Joaquín! Muñoz! Sabater! (ECMWF)! "Soil! moisture! monitoring! from! remote! sensing.! First! results! with! SMOS!and!future!plans"!! !


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133! !

Annex(V:(Outreach( !


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135! !


136! ! !


Profile for Institut Català de Ciències del Clima

IC3 Annual Report 2008-2010  

First institutional annual report of IC3 2008

IC3 Annual Report 2008-2010  

First institutional annual report of IC3 2008

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