What Does it Mean to be Educated? Dr. Malcolm Pritchard The ISF Academy – Hong Kong
Tyson & Ting*ng
Predic*ng the Future?
"Everything that can be invented, has been invented."
-‐ Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US Oﬃce of Patents, 1899.
"All saved from Titanic aCer collision." -‐ New York Evening Sun, April 15 1912
"Brain work will cause women to go bald, while increasing their masculinity."
-‐ Professor Hans Friedenthal, University of Berlin, 1914.
"Who wants to hear actors talk?" -‐ H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
"No maKer what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping." -‐ U.S. Secretary of Navy, December 4, 1941
“Computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons." -‐ Popular Mechanics, forecasRng the relentless march of science, 1949
"I think there's a world market for about ﬁve computers."
-‐ Thomas J. Watson, chairman of the board of IBM.
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -‐ Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977
“The Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the US market." -‐ Business Week, August 2, 1968
"640K ought to be enough (computer memory) for anybody." -‐ Bill Gates, 1981.
The Guardian: 'Web 2.0' declared millionth word in English language Neologism created every 98 minutes, says language monitor
Apple iTunes is the largest music retailer in USA and has sold more than 10 billion legal songs as of Feb 2010 Amazon now sells 105 e-‐books for every 100 printed books it sells Nealix is a movie streaming company and accounts for 25% of North American Internet traﬃc Facebook is the largest photo sharing website in the world:100 million photos uploaded per day / 6 billion photos uploaded each month
Facebook ‘Friend’ Map of the World
Nearly 800 million ac*ve users 50% of our ac*ve users log on to Facebook in any given day Average user has 130 friends People spend over 700 billion minutes per month on Facebook Facebook is the largest photo sharing website in the world:100 million photos uploaded per day / 6 billion photos uploaded each month
Amazon now has 1,000,000 digital *tles on Kindle .
Visualiza*on of Trending Topic Clouds
Lockheed Mar*n Bets Big on Quantum Compu*ng By Keir Thomas, PCWorld May 28, 2011
Nature Nanotechnology: A single-‐atom transistor
Analog Humanity in a Digital World Researchers recently completed an inventory of the world's technological capacity (Feb, 2011). In 2000, three-‐quarters of the world's informa*on was s*ll in analog form. By 2007, all but 6 percent had been preserved digitally The dpping point came in 2002 h5p://www.technewsdaily.com/humanitys-‐shie-‐from-‐analog-‐to-‐digital-‐nearly-‐complete-‐2145/
Informa*on Processing Power We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 X 1016 cps) for $1,000 in 2023. We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 X 1016 cps) for one cent in 2037. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 X 1026 cps) for $1,000 in 2049. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 X 1026 cps) for one cent in 2059.
Informadon Overload 1962: ﬁrst internet connec*on 1995: 16 million users 1998: 26 million urls 1999: 12 exabytes = all human informa*on 2008: 1.47 billion users 2009: 226 million websites 2009: 1 trillion urls 2011: Internet size = 800 exabytes (800,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes) • 2011: only 10% of internet data is reliable or unique • • • • • • • •
The Approaching Singularity
“the ever acceleraRng progress of technology… gives the appearance of approaching some essenRal singularity in the history of the race beyond which human aﬀairs, as we know them, could not conRnue.” John Von Neumann, mathema*cian, inventor h5p://www.kurzweilai.net/the-‐law-‐of-‐accelera*ng-‐returns
Utopia-‐Bound: The Roadblocks • • • • • • • •
Linear thinking Incrementalism Failing to recognize the ‘*pping point’ Uniformitarianism Ignoring paradigm ‘shies’ Single-‐loop problem solving Groundless op*mism (Pollyanna Syndrome) “Wicked Problems”
Caveat: Beware of SIMPLE Solu*ons
“In the varied topography of professional prac*ce, there is a high, hard ground overlooking a swamp. On the hard ground, manageable problems lend themselves to solu*on through the applica*on of research-‐ based theory and techniques. In the swampy lowlands, messy, confusing problems defy technical solu*ons…in the swamp lie the problems of greatest human concern.”
Donald Schöen: Educa*ng the Reﬂec*ve Prac**oner
Terrorism Transporta*on routes Aﬀordable healthcare Sustainable development Alterna*ve aﬀordable ‘commodity’ energy Social security for humankind World hunger Global warming Environmental planning Military spending Business design challenges Complex soeware development
Chart D4.2. Number of teaching hours per year, by level of education (2008) Net contact time in hours per year in public institutions
Hours per year
1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
Countries are ranked in descending order of the number of teaching hours per year in lower secondary education. Source: OECD. Table D4.1. See Annex 3 for notes (www.oecd.org/edu/eag2010).
Korea Finland Canada New Zealand Japan Australia Netherlands Belgium Norway Estonia Switzerland Iceland Poland United States Germany Sweden France Ireland Denmark Hungary United Kingdom OECD average Portugal Italy Slovenia Spain Czech Republic Slovak Republic Israel Luxembourg Austria Russian Federation Chile Mexico Brazil
PISA performance in reading (2009)
Chart D2.1. Average class size in primary education (2000, 2009)
Number of students per classroom 40
1. Year of reference 2008 instead of 2009. 2. Public institutions only. 3. Years of reference 2001 and 2009. Countries are ranked in descending order of average class size in primary education in 2009. Source: OECD. Argentina, China, Indonesia: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (World Education Indicators Programme). 2009 data: Table D2.1. 2000 data: Table D2.4 on line. See Annex 3 for notes (www.oecd.org/edu/eag2011).
The Learning Process: Knowledge construc*on and the Ques8on “…all knowledge is in response to a quesRon. If there were no quesRon, there would be no scienRﬁc knowledge. Nothing proceeds from itself. Nothing is given. All is constructed.” Gaston Bachelard, The FormaRon of the ScienRﬁc Mind, 1938
Construc*ng Knowledge • • • • • • • • •
Ques*ons Inquiry Filtering skills Discernment Interpreta*on Comparisons Insight Analysis Conclusions
From Linearity to Non-‐linearity
Informa*on is increasingly structured in hyperlinked tree structures
Wisdom Values Virtues Vision
Informa*on Processing and Storage: Cogni*on, Literacy, Memory
Data Senses: Seeing, Hearing, Touching, Smelling, Tas*ng, Feeling Adapted from Russell Ackoﬀ, From Data to Wisdom (1989)
Single Loop Learning
Revise Reﬂect Reframe Re-‐theorize
Reframe-‐ ac*on-‐ result
Triple Loop Learning
Observe Induce Adjust Control
Double Loop Learning
Imagine Create Transform Transcend
EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING & RISK PHYSICAL – SOCIAL – CULTURAL – INTELLECTUAL
Balanced Caring Communicators Inquirers Knowledgeable Open-‐minded Principled Reﬂec*ve Risk-‐takers Thinkers
Schools of the Past Persevere, sustain, reﬂect, revere, maintain, conser5e, sustain, endure, admire, venerate, respect, hold, honour Traditions, cult9re, histor:, habits, iner<ia, conventions, heritage, inheritance, conser5ation
Schools of the Present
Manage, operate, reconcile, compromise, align harmonize, measure, control, implement, resolve, ra*onalize, stage, produce Status quo, tension, balance, cau*on, goals, accountability, performance indicators, strategy, plan, goals, resource, policy, prac*ce, responsibility, current
Schools of the Future Wish, desire, dream, launch, risk, invent, create, inspire, initiate, transform, transcend, envisage, anticipate, experiment, Future, hope, aspiration, vision, plan, progress, development, innovation, potential, talent, prospective, proposal, paradigm shift
Educadonal Essendals in the 21st Century • Virtues, Values, Vision: seeing truly, applied ethics, crea*vity, responsibility, • Cultural skills: respect, values, ethics, behaviour, standards, tradi*ons, self-‐restraint, memory • Experiendal risk-‐taking: innova*on, crea*vity, inven*on, trial and error, mistakes, recovery, reﬂec*on, support, scaﬀolding, resilience • Communicadon skills: social interac*on through speaking, deba*ng, convincing, listening, nego*a*ng, compromising, sharing, harmonizing • Knowledge mastery: literacy, numeracy, logic, cri*cal thinking • Physical culture: health, ﬁtness, endurance, exper*se, courage, mastery, compe**on, grace, concession
Learning for the Truly Educated • Wisdom: Vision, virtues, values • Culture: Mul*lingual & mul*cultural • Experience: courage and resilience from The Swamp • Knowledge: constructed from our Quesdons
Where is the Life we have lost in living? Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in inforCation?
T.S. Eliot, “The Rock” (1934)
This session will engage participants in an exploration of what might constitute a ‘better world’ in the context of an IB education, and wil...