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The political prospects of Kyrgyzstan in the dimension of Central Asian security vacuum Since the Soviet collapse and the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a transformation took place of the once peripheral Central Asian region into the region, which occupies a key position in the geopolitical coordinates of the entire Eurasian space. Now Central Asia is often claimed as an object of geopolitical interests of the intersection of three world powers: Russia, USA and China, which are making efforts to halt further escalation of tension and instability in the region. The interest of participants in the so-called “Central Asian Great Game” in the political and economic dominance in the region is closely linked with the need to address security issues in Central Asia [1]. But the recent developments demonstrate that none of the Great Powers are willing to fill the security vacuum in Central Asia. In spite of the declared “new Great Game”, the major geopolitical forces seem distinctly reluctant to expand their spheres of influence there [2]. In science and popular lexicon Central Asia is usually mentioned as a part of the so-called “arc of instability”. In recent years the significant growth of destabilizing factors in Central Asia became a trend. Economic threats and corruption are undermining the regional security. The region is rich in fuel resources, and its companies have an important stake in the development of its huge oil reserves and diversification of world oil supplies [3]. A characteristic feature of the Central Asian reality are conflicts bases on the problems of region-wide dimension – lack of water and arable land, the issues of borders, etc. All of them are explosive in nature and under adverse circumstances can to become “a bone of contention”. The fact that Central Asia can be not only buffer the negative processes in the neighboring Middle Eastern countries, but also has the ability to give rise to threats and challenges, has been demonstrated by revolution in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 [4].


Kyrgyzstan’s events have underscored the instability of the former Soviet governments which are burdened by authoritarian and corrupt rule. These events has significantly weakened the system of regional security, as at the time when the government is paralyzed, the security forces are diverted at the domestic dispute, the threat of intensifying terrorist and extremist organizations rises [3,5]. Regarding to the situation in Kyrgyzstan in 2010, we must admit that Kyrgyz politicians were rushing in their foreign policy orientations between the West and Russia. Both Washington and Moscow may be considered as standing for the Kyrgyz events. However, it is clear that both of them tried to distance themselves from the situation. Of course, both states want to maintain a strong presence in this Central Asian country, but there is one single factor, which is lesser known but equally obvious: China has a keen interest in stable relations with Kyrgyzstan, as it has long common border with it. That is why the developments in this geopolitically strategic country are of great importance [6]. However, the reason for the success of the revolution in Kyrgyzstan may not be explained by the support of either Western countries or Russia, it is due to the information component. Kyrgyz events were «another twitter-revolution», whose success lies in the active use of Internet space [4]. What is the future of Kyrgyzstan in the context of this hand-off policy? According to Joshua Kucera, American journalist and political expert, “it remains to be seen whether the Kyrgyzstan government is able to stop the violence by itself” [2]. After the Kyrgyz events, it has become popular to talk about the lack of “hard hand” in the region. Some experts, thinking about the future prospects of the situation, confidently say that the country needs a dictator who will firmly establish rigid order and restore performance of all authorities [5]. In reality, however, it is not as easy as it seems. The Kyrgyz chaos is not the result of an unsuccessful experiment with democracy. Similarly, the establishment of an authoritarian regime will not put an end to all this endless chaos; in the best case, the situation will only be conserved. Therefore, the need for a “hard hand” is false


and dangerous conclusion. If we go this route, the country can be lured into a dangerous abyss of infinite bloodshed. If the revolution repeats, and the violence continues, an external intervention will be necessary to stop the bloodshed that is threatening national and regional security. The question is, will any of the Great Powers desire to interfere in this arc of instability without being sure that it coincides with its interests. Dmytro Iarovyi Resources 1. Звягельская И. К вопросу об угрозах безопасности в Центральной

Азии [Електронний ресурс]: Інтернет-портал Інституту соціальних систем МГУ ім. Ломоносова – Режим доступу до матеріалу: http://niiss.ru/05.shtml 2. Kucera J. Central Asia Security Vacuum [Електронне джерело]: Інтернет-

портал The Diplomat – Режим доступу до ресурсу: http://thediplomat.com/2010/06/16/central-asia’s-security-vacuum/ 3. Corboy D., Courtney W., and Yalowitz K. Central Asia: new security

challenges [Електронний ресурс]: Інтернет-портал Open Democracy – Режим доступу до матеріалу: http://www.opendemocracy.net/odrussia/denis-corboy-william-courtney-kenneth-yalowitz/central-asia-newsecurity-challenges 4. Яровий Д. Informational aspect of the Twitter-revolution 2009 in

Kyrgyzstan / Д.Яровий // Актуальні проблеми міжнародних відносин – К.: Київський національний університет імені Тараса Шевченка Інститут міжнародних відносин 2011. – №98. – С. 104-106 5. Карин Е. Революция vs. эволюция [Електронний ресурс]: Інтернет-

портал «Независимая газета» – Режим доступу до матеріалу: http://www.ng.ru/cis/2010-11-30/7_kirgizia.html


6. Engdahl William F. Kyrgyzstan’s ‘Roza Revolution’ [Електронний

ресурс]: Інтернет-портал War and Peace – Режим доступу до матеріалу: http://www.warandpeace.ru/en/exclusive/view/47559/


The political prospects of Kyrgyzstan in the dimension of Central Asian security vacuum