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HYBRID REALITY AYESHA and PARAG KHANNA


Socio-technical Eras Disruption Scenarios Cities


Socio-Technical Eras


Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age


Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age


Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age Industrial Age


Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age Industrial Age Information Age


Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age Industrial Age Information Age Hybrid Age


Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras

Hybrid Age integrated ubiquitous intelligent social


The Hybrid Age: A New Socio-Technical Nexus

• Technologies merging with each other • Humans merging with technologies


3 Concepts to Understand the Hybrid Age

Human-Technology Coevolution

• Technology evolution patterns – Brian Arthur: combinatorial technological evolution – Kevin Kelly: Technium includes man/nature • Human evolution patterns – Charles Darwin: modification by descent – Robert Fogel: techno-physio evolution • Hybrid Age: Evolution as Flow – Adrian Bejan: constructal law


3 Concepts to Understand the Hybrid Age

Technik • Historical Usage – Lewis Mumford: culture, technology, people, processes, rules – Oswald Spengler: economic, political, cultural, educational systems • Technik in the Hybrid Age – Between scientific determinism and social constructivism – Capacity to harness emerging technologies


3 Concepts to Understand the Hybrid Age

Generativity • The Structural Property of Capacity for Creation – Noam Chomsky: grammar from few rules – Jonathan Zittrain: capacity for unexpected users/products • Social Systems in Hybrid Age Exhibiting Generativity – Healthcare, education, economy, governance systems begin to exhibit expansive capacity to connect users and enable them to create new values and outputs • Generativity as Value-Neutral Property – Open to all. Potential for egalitarianism or monopolism


The Foundations of Power


GeoTechnology as a Driver in 21st Century Major trends have technology at root: •Shift to multipolarity •Shrinking of space •Convergence of economies •Spread of innovation •New forms of collaboration


Geo-technology drives global trends


BUT Isn’t the Singularity Near‌? Information Age

Machines connect humans and process knowledge and instructions

Hybrid Age

Machines become integrated, ubiquitous, intelligent and social

Singularity Age

Machine intelligence becomes greater than human intelligence


Disruptive Scenarios


Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing


Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing


Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing


Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing

Beware of unexpected cascading scenarios


Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots

$45 Million – South Korea investment in Robotic Teaching Assistants


Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots

86% – prostate surgeries in the US in 2010 were robot-assisted


Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots

$100,000 – Cost of robot paralegals to examine 1.5 million documents


Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots

160,000 – Fans who attended concert of Japanese holographic rock star


Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots


Scenario 3: Enhancing to Compete

Drugs Prosthetics Brain computer interfaces Radical life extension


Scenario 3: Enhancing to Compete

Redefining Health Health = Prevention + Therapy + Enhancement


Scenario 3: Enhancing to Compete Invention - West

Commercialization - East


Beijing Genomic Institute – more than meets the eye


Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain Sebastian Thrun 2007 – Professor at Stanford University


Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain Sebastian Thrun 2007 – Professor at Stanford University 2010 – He launched the Google Driverless car


Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain Sebastian Thrun 2007 – Professor at Stanford University 2010 – He launched the Google Driverless car 2011 – He taught a free online course on artificial intelligence to 160,000 students


Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain Sebastian Thrun 2007 – Professor at Stanford University 2010 – He launched the Google Driverless car 2011 – He taught a free online course on artificial intelligence to 160,000 students 2012 – Left Stanford and started Udacity


Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain


Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain


Cities


A New Age, A New Scale: The Rise of the City • Massive urbanization – 70% world population will live in cities by 2050

• Building of new cities – UN estimates we need 9000 new cities

• Shift in identity – Daniel Bell: “city-zen” is the new citizen


Networked Infrastructure and Internet of Things: City as a Platform

Smart Homes Smart Traffic Smart Power Smart Profiles Smart Trees?


City-wide Dashboard

Source: Accenture


Business Opportunity $1.2 Trillion Dollars in 10 years Social Impact Opportunity Healthcare, Education, Sustainability


Rush to Create New Smart Cities/Districts and Retrofit Existing Cities Stockholm ★

★ Skolkovo

Amsterdam★

Toronto ★ New York ★

PlanIT Valley ★

Austin ★ King Abdullah ★ Economic City

Masdar ★

Chongqing ★ Songdo Nano City ★ ★ ★ Wuxi

Lavasa ★

Ho Chi Min City ★ Singapore ★

Rio ★


New Cities: Songdo


Efficiency vs. Big Brother The Good

The Bad


Influence vs. manipulation The Good

The Bad


Achieving Good Technik


The Path to Good Technik Embedding Values •Universal Rights: Access, transparency and equity •Is Internet a Human Right? (UN/Finland/France vs. Cerf) Techno-Pragmatism •Building capacity in leading sectors •Measurement: Income, Human Development, Connectivity Mindfulness about “Design” •Resolving the structure/agency tension •Filter Bubble and “Walled Gardens” Managing Your Identities •Personal Identity Ecology: Physical Individual, Virtual Avatar, Robotic Companion •Feedback Loops and Sense of Self


Good vs. Bad Technik GOOD •more economic participants •growing transparency and self-governance •lower cost of education BAD •Gene co-efficient growing •Global class struggle •Collective digital system crash


CONTACT PARAG KHANNA parag@hybridreality.me AYESHA KHANNA ayesha@hybridreality.me


the_Hybrid_Age_A_New_Socio-Technical_Nexus