The Danish Property Federation’s market statistics – Consensus Forecast • Expectation of 5.4 percent total return in 2019 • Largest faith in industrial property – mostly for capital value and market rent. • The property owners have more negative expectations than the rest of the property business. • The Triangle Area achieves the best survey since 2011
Decreasing total return Over the next five years, the property business expects a total return of 5.2 percent, which is a 0.1 percentage point drop since last quarter. In the last four years, the total return has been an average of 6.7 percent. In 2019, a total return is expected to be 5.4 percent, which is a drop of 0.1 percent since last quarter. The total return in 2020 is expected to be 5.2 percent, which is also a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to last quarter.
The fear of a future recession and political unrest means lower expectations to the total return.
The expectations can be divided between the participants who are owners, commercial brokers and other property players. Here, it is the property owners who have the lowest expectations to the total return in the future. In 2019, the owners expect that the total return is 5.2 percent, the commercial brokers expect a return of 5.4 percent, while other property players expect a total return of 57 percent. The difference becomes smaller if you
The property owners have slightly more negative expectations than commercial brokers and other property players.
The total return is expected to be 5.2 percent in the period from 2019-2023 Table 1
Source: The Danish Property Federation’s market statistics. See remarks on page 4.
Figure 1. The participants’ expectations For 2019
For the development in total return 2019-2021
16 % expect a total
8% of 7 percent or more
return below 5 percent.
57 % expect a total return of between 6 and 5 percent.
expect a total return
59 % decreaseng
expect a total between 7 and
expect an increasing
29 % expect an unchanged total return.
The Danish Property Federation’s Market Statistics – Consensus Forecast, October 2019
look at the expectations for the whole period between 2019-2023. Here, the owners expect at total return of 5.1 percent, while both commercial brokers and other property players expect a total return of 5.3 percent. The expectations to the sectors for the three participant groups are very similar. However, the property owners are slightly more negative about the expectations to residential properties than the commercial brokers and other property players.
The indicator value of -28.6 for retail occupied space and market rent is the lowest measured since 2011.
Positive expectations to office and industry There are positive expectations to office and industry and negative expectations to retail and residential. Industry is the sector to which there is largest faith when it comes to Capital value, rental percentage and market rent. The expectations for the market rent of industrial properties have only been higher twice before and the higher market rent is expected to yield a higher Capital value for industrial property. A higher market rent should be welcome as the rent for industrial property has decreased from 2014-2018, while the rent the last 12 months increased 2 percent – despite a decrease from April 2019 to July 2019. The occupied space for industry has increased with 0.5 percentage points in a year and the participants expect this development to continue. The Occupied space for industry is 90.2 percent in July 2019. The expectations to residential is still negative and especially the expectations to occupied space has developed negatively compared to last quarter. However, the occupied space of residential is still high with 95.9 percent in July 2019. Overall, the expectations to residential has not been this negative before. This also applies to the expectations to retail, where the expectations to occupied space and market rent have not been this negative before. Record for the Triangle Area and the rest of the country The Triangle Area and the rest of the country have never measured this well before and the progress continues. Copenhagen and Odense are doing slightly better in this quarter, while Aarhus and Aalborg are decreasing again. Especially Aalborg are decreasing in the national survey and it is now expected that the development in capital value in Aalborg and the rest of the country develops in the same way. It is a significant change which has been strengthened this quarter.
Even more negative expectations to retail property (indicator values between -100 and 100) Capital value
Market rent October 2019
Source: The Danish Property Federation’s market statistics. The participants have answered: ”Much lower”, ”lower”, ”unchanged”, ”higher” and ”much higher” on the question: ”What are your expectations for the development of [sector] buildings with prime location in a year compared to today?” The answers are given a value in order to achieve an indicator between -100 and 100. An indicator of 100 means that everybody has answered “much higher”, and -100 means that everybody has answered “much lower”. Indicator zero states expectations of unchanged conditions. An indicator of 19.4 may for example be obtained by 19.4 percent of the participants corresponding ”much higher” and the remaining corresponding ”unchanged”.
The Danish Property Federation’s market statistics – Consensus Forecast, October 2019
Figure 2. In the period from 2000-2018, the total return has been an average of 6.7 percent 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2000
Source: The Danish Property Federation’s market statistics. Total return of investment properties. From 2011 to 2018, the total return from the Danish Property Federation’s market statistics is shown, while 2000 to 2010 is own calculations based on data from the IPD Danish Property Index. 2019 to 2021 shows the average of the answers in the Danish Property Federation’s market statistics – expectations. 50 percent of the answers are within the blue lines.
Figure 3. Best measured expectations for the rest of the country Regional indicator Low regional growth
Medium regional growth
The map shows the areas in Denmark where the Capital value of investment properties are expected to increase the most compared to the other areas.
High regional growth
We have asked about the Triangle area, Copenhagen, Aarhus, Aalborg, Odense and the rest of Denmark. The answers have formed an indicator. If an area is light green, at least 70% of the respondents have agreed that this area is doing better than the others.
Source: The Danish Property Federation’s market statistics.
The Danish Property Federation’s market statistics – Consensus Forecast, October 2019
About the survey These are the expectations for October 2019 from the Danish Property Federation’s market statistics. The aim is to create information for a more transparent property market. The survey is published every quarter and is completely and utterly dependent on the participating companies being willing to report data every quarter. Without these companies, the survey would never become a reality. 49 market players have participated in this survey. 51% of the participants are the owners of buildings. In addition, 22 percent are commercial brokers, 10 percent are property managers, 4 percent are banks/mortgage providers and 13% are other players.
The following companies have contributed Aberdeen Asset Management, ATP Ejendomme, BBN Consult, Bertélco Ejendomme A/S, BRF Kredit, Carlsberg Byen, CBRE, Chr. Hjorth Erhvervsejendomme, Colliers, Copenhagen Capital, Cura Management, DADES, Danbolig erhverv Johnny Hallas, Danica Ejendomme, DEAS, EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech, EK-Ejendomsadministration A/S, EY, Focus Asset Management, Heimdal Nordic, Hosta Ejendomme, Industriens Pension, Jeudan, Karberghus, KLP ejendomme, Lintrup & Norgart,Lokalebasen.dk A/S, Lundsgaard Erhverv, Lægernes Pensionskasse, M7 Real Estate, M. Goldschmidt Ejendomme, Minova, NCC Construction Danmark A/S, Newsec Advisory, Newsec Property Asset Management Denmark, Niam, Nordea Ejendomme, Nybolig, Nykredit, P+, Patrizia, PBU – Pædagogernes Pension, Pensam, PensionDanmark, PFA Ejendomme, PKA, Probus Ejendom og Investering, Prodomus, PwC, Realdania, Realkredit Danmark, Sampension, SEB Pension, Sinding Gruppen, Spar Nord Bank, Taurus Ejendomsadministration, Thylander Gruppen, TK Development, TLK, Topdanmark Ejendom, Valdal Advokatfirma, Wiborg & Partnere, Øens Advokatfirma og Ejendomsadministration.
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Remarks for table 1
Table indicates the average total return based on the replies for the years 2019-2023. The total return is in percent and measures the return investment properties in relation to the size of the investment in a given period. The total return includes two types of return: Direct return on value. The direct return is the period’s ongoing net operating results divided by the investment size in the beginning of the period. Return on value is the value increment in the given period divided by the size of the investment at the beginning of the period. The total return is before any financial costs and inflation. The historic total return in 2018 may change slightly in the future when new data is added to the market statistics.