Ejendomsforeningen Danmarks markedsstatistik – tomgang, april 2017
April 2017
The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics WEB REPORT VACANCY
Results • Decrease in economic vacancy is on hold • 7,7 percent is the lowest economic vacancy for retail since July 2009 • Economic vacancy is stable • Fewer commercial areas are vacant on national level
Unchanged economic vacancy
Office underperforms this quarter with unchanged economic vacancy after a decrease two quarters in a row. Industry experience an increase in the economic vacancy of 0.3 percentage point, but compared to last year it is a decrease og 0.7 percentage point. There is almost unchanged expectations for vacancy within residential, but the economic vacancy increases by 0.2 percentage point compared to last quarter. The economic vacancy within residential is at a very low level – 3.3 percent economic vacancy. A possible explanation to a small increase within residential is that more and more new residential properties are fully developed and it usually takes some time before all units are rented.
The economic vacancy is 8.8 on national level and is keeping the level from January 2017. An expected decrease has been on hold this quarter after having decreased four quarters in a row. It is worth noticing that the economic vacancy has descreased by 0.6 percentage point compared to last year. The economic vacancy has decreased by 1.8 percentage point in total since it peaked in 2013. The market players expect that the vacancy will decrease further. This is seen in the Danish Property Federation Market Statistic – Consensus Forecast from April 2017, where the highest expectations of a decrease in vacancy for the year to come were seen in office followed by industry and retail while the players had an expectation of almost unchanged vacancy for residential. This quarter, retail comes up to expectations with a decrease of 0.3 percentage point ending at 7.7 percent. This is the lowest economic vacancy for retail in eight years. By this, retail is close to seven percent, which is the long-term average for retail from 2000 until today.
Spatial vacancy is decreasing Economic vacancy is the most important to the market. But while the economic vacancy is on hold, the spatial vacancy decreases by 0.2 percentage point compared to last quarter, while there is a decrease of 1.3 percentage point compared to last year. The spatial vacancy is 9.3 percent which is higher than the economic vacancy.
Tabel 1. Tomgangsprocenter april 2017 Økonomisk tomgang Tomgang (percent) Kontor Butik
Kvartals ændring (percentage points)
Arealmæssig tomgang
Annual change (percentage points)
11,8
0,0
-0,6
Tomgang (percent) 13,2
Kvartals ændring (percentage points)
Annual change (percentage points)
-0,3
-1,1
7,7
-0,3
-0,6
7,3
-0,3
-0,3
12,1
0,3
-0,7
11,3
-0,2
-1,8
Bolig
3,3
0,2
0,3
3,1
0,2
0,2
Total
8,8
0,0
-0,7
9,3
-0,2
-1,3
Industri
Kilde: Ejendomsforeningen Danmark. Anm.: Tomgangsmålet for alle sektorer i alt omfatter også aktuel årsleje og arealer for andet erhverv samt sekundære arealer.
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The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics, April 2017
INTERAKTIV WEBRAPPORT TOMGANG
In 2016 and 2017, the difference in spatial and economic vacancy has decreased more and more each quarter. There is a decrease in the spatial vacancy in all commercial sectors, while there is a smaller increase in residential of 0.2 percentage point compared to last quarter.
ce rentals that are vacant. 13.2 percent of the offices are vacant, which corresponds to the level of 2014. This is the fourth quarter in a row that the spatial vacancy decreases for office. The spatial vacancy for retail is 7.3 percent. Three years ago, the spatial vacancy for retail was arount nine percent. Industry has a spatial vacancy of 11.3 percent. Three years ago, industry had a spatial vacancy of almost 18 percent. Spatial vacancy for residential has been more stable around three percent during the last three years.
Office is the only sector, where the spatial vacancy is higher than the economic vacancy. This means that it is relatively cheaper offi-
Figure 1. Development in economic vacancy Percent 25,00
20,00
PROCENT
15,00
10,00
5,00
Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr. Jul. Okt. Jan. Apr.
0,00 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 Kontor
OfďŹ ce
2007 Butik
Retail
2008
2009
Industri
Industry
2010 Bolig
2011 I alt
Residential
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Source: The Danish Property Federation and own calculations based on data from IPD Danish Property Index and Oline-ÂED statistics. Note: Data from January 2014 and onwards is from The Danish Property Federation. From 2001 to 2013 is data from IPD Danish Property index based on difference in level in 2014. In year 2000, office data from The Danish Property Federation incorporated. Calculations method differs, hence there is data breaches between October 2013 and January 2014. From January 2014 the publication is divided quarterly, while it is yearly before 2014. Therefore, from 2014 there is a bigger data base.
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The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics, April 2017
INTERAKTIV WEBRAPPORT TOMGANG
Office – Unchanged economic vacancy despite decrease in spatial vacancy The economic vacancy stays at 11.8 percent despite a decrease in share of vacant office space of 03. Percentage point since January 2017. The vacancy level is 0.6 percentage point lower than in April 2016. In general, an average decreasing vacancy rent and and increasing rent for rented offices contribute to a reduction in the economic vacancy. This corresponds to the fact that in value there are still more rentals that are vacant in April 2017 than rentals being rented. The economic vacancy in Copenhagen CBD at 6.2 percent is still the lowest at national level despite an increase of 1.5 percentage point compared to January 2017. In other Copenhagen & area there is a decrease of 0.4 percentage point, while the vacancy in the Capital Region is stable at 12.0 percent. The Mid Jutland Region continues the positive development with quarterly declines for the third quarter in a row. The total vacancy is now down to two third of the level half a year ago. Primary reason is the development in Aarhus, where the vacancy lies four percentage point below the level in January 2017. In the Northern Jutland Region, vacancy has decreased by 1.0 percentage point.
Retail – Capital and Mid Jutland Region carry the decrease in retail vacancy The economic vacancy decreases with 0.3 percentage point in April to a level of 7.7 percent, the lowest level in eight years. Last quarter’s development is a result of a continuously increasing rent level for retail. This also goes for vacant rentals – the rent has increased a little – and this counteracts the decline in vacancy. In April the effect of new rentals balance the effect of new vacancies. After an increase in January 2017, the vacancy declines again in April in Copenhagen CBD with 2.0 percentage point to 3.9 percent and this influences the decline in vacancy in the Capital Region of 0.6 percentage point in total. In Copenhagen CBD, the economic vacancy decline is almost twice as big as the decline in spatial vacancy. This indicates that the decline in vacancy in Copenhagen CBD is due to new rentals of more expensive retail rentals. The economic vacancy in Copenhagen CBD is still 2.5 percentage point above the level in April 2016. Aarhus thrives of the development within retail, where the economic vacancy is at a relatively law level of 5.2 percent. Compared to last quarter, this is a decrease of 0.7 percentage point. In Aalborg the vacancy level for retial is at 14.3 percent.
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The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics, April 2017
INTERAKTIV WEBRAPPORT TOMGANG
Industry – Slight increase in economic vacancy After three quarters of decline in the economic vacancy for industry, the economic vacancy increased by 0.3 percentage point compared to January 2017 to 12.1 percent in April 2017. In return, the spatial vacancy declined for fifth quarter in a row to 11.3 percent. This is a decrease in the spatial vacancy of 0.2 percentage point compared to last quarter and 1.8 percent compared to last year. There is a decrease in vacancy in the Capital Region and the Mid Jutland Region compared to last quarter, while vacancy increases in the Zealand Region and the Southern Denmark Region. In the Capital Region we see decreasing vacancy in Copenhagen CBD and other Copenhagen & area, while vacancy is increasing in the Northern Zealand Region witin industry. In April 2017, vacancy is 16.3 percent in the Northern Zealand Region. Three years ago, the vacancy in the Northern Zealand Region was approx. 20 percent. The reason why the economic vacancy increases within industry is that the value of industrial rentals which are rented are lower than the value of vacant industrial rentals. The value of vacant is almost three times higher than the rented. The economic vacancy is drawn in a positive direction as the rented industrial rentals in both April and January 2017 increase with 1.2 percent in rent, while vacant industrial rentals in both April and January 2017 decrease with 0.3 percent in rent.
Residential – Vacancy at historic average The economic vacancy for residential has increased a little since January 2017, but is still at a low level. The vacancy rate is 3.3 percent against 3.1 percent last quarter and 3.0 percent compared to same quarter last year. A vacancy rate of 3.3 percent corresponds to the historic average for residential since January 2000. In the Capital Region, the vacancy follows the national level with a slight increase, primarily drawn by Copenhagen CBD and other Copenhagen & area. In Copenhagen CBD economic vacancy grow to 4.8 percent, while it keeps declining in the North Zealand Region to a level of 2.0 percent. In the Northern Jutland Region and the Mid Jutland Region, the vacancy increases by 0.8 and 1.1 percentage point respectively. In the Mid Jutland Region, it is especially Aarhus that stands for the increase with an increase of 1.4 percentage point compared to last quarter. In the Southern Denmark Region, we still see the lowest vacancy of only 1.7 percent. The biggest decline in economic vacancy is seen in the Southern Denmark Region, where it decreases with 0.7 percentage point compared to last quarter, and 0.5 percentage point compared to same quarter last year. The biggest declines compared to last year is in the Zealand Region, where the economic vacancy has decreased from 4.0 to 2.3 percent.
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The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics, April 2017
INTERAKTIV WEBRAPPORT TOMGANG
Geographic overview Copenhagen CBD
Lynettehavnen
Margretheholm
Kongebrovej
Christiansborg Christianshavn
Tivoli
Northern Jutland Region
Aalborg
Mid Jutland Region
Aarhus Northern Zealand Capital Region
Triangle Area
Copenhagen Centre Zealand Region
Southern Denmark Region
Odense
Western and Southern Zealand
Eastern Zealand
Other Copenhagen Municipal Other Capital Region
Source: The Danish Property Federation. Rem.: Copenhagen CBD covers the zipcodes: 900, 1000-1559, 1562-1609 og 1611-1614. CBD stands for Central Business District.
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The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics, April 2017
INTERAKTIV WEBRAPPORT TOMGANG
Table 2. Office Economic vacancy April 2017 (percent) Capital Region
12.0
Copenhagen. CBD
Quarterly change (percentage points)
Spatial vacancy
Annual change (percentage points)
0.0
-0.6
April 2017 (percent) 13.2
Quarterly change (percentage points)
Annual change (percentage points)
-0.4
-1.2
6.2
1.5
-0.8
6.0
0.7
-1.3
Other Copenhagen and area
13.3
-0.4
-0.3
14.5
-0.7
-0.8
Northern Zealand
22.2
0.2
-0.9
20.1
0.6
-4.4
8.7
0.2
0.3
11.3
0.7
0.6
Eastern Zealand
8.8
0.5
9.5
1.2
Western and Southern Zealand
8.5
0.0
12.5
0.2
13.7
3.8
3.0
18.6
5.5
4.5
14.9
1.2
1.1
19.6
1.2
0.7
8.9
-2.9
-3.9
10.1
-2.7
-5.5
9.6
-4.0
-4.6
10.1
-3.6
-6.5
Zealand Region
Southern Denmark Region Odense Mid Jutland Region Aarhus Other Mid Jutland Northern Jutland Region Aalborg Total
6.5
0.5
-1.3
9.9
0.4
-2.1
11.6
-1.0
-0.3
12.8
-1.7
-0.8
12.0
-0.3
-0.2
13.2
-1.3
-0.3
11.8
0.0
-0.6
13.2
-0.3
-1.1
Source: The Danish Property Federation.
Table 3. Retail Economic vacancy April 2017 (percent) Capital Region
Spatial vacancy
Quarterly change (percentage points)
Annual change (percentage points)
April 2017 (percent)
Quarterly change (percentage points)
Annual change (percentage points)
6.7
-0.6
-0.7
5.8
-0.6
-0.3
Copenhagen. CBD
3.9
-2.0
2.5
2.2
-1.2
0.9
Other Copenhagen and area
7.3
0.1
-1.6
6.4
-0.2
-0.5
10.1
-1.2
-0.4
9.9
-1.4
-0.3
10.4
0.1
-1.4
10.5
0.1
-0.3
9.3
-0.4
-1.7
8.3
-0.6
-1.5
12.7
1.2
-0.6
13.8
1.1
1.4
7.8
0.7
-1.6
7.3
-0.1
-2.4
8.0
0.4
-0.5
8.6
0.6
-0.3
8.3
-0.3
1.2
10.4
0.3
1.8
Northern Zealand Zealand Region Eastern Zealand Western and Southern Zealand Southern Denmark Region Triangle Area Mid Jutland Region Aarhus Other Mid Jutland Northern Jutland Region Aalborg Total
5.2
-0.7
-0.2
4.4
-0.1
-0.1
13.2
-0.5
1.5
17.4
0.0
2.6
12.7
0.2
0.5
8.4
-0.8
-1.1
9.5
-1.5
7.3
-0.3
14.3
0.3
7.7
-0.3
-0.6
-0.3
Source: The Danish Property Federation.
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The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics, April 2017
INTERAKTIV WEBRAPPORT TOMGANG
Table 4. Industry Economic vacancy April 2017 (percent) Capital Region
Quarterly change (percentage points)
Spatial vacancy
Annual change (percentage points)
April 2017 (percent)
Quarterly change (percentage points)
Annual change (percentage points)
12.8
-0.1
-1.4
11.9
-0.2
-2.2
Copenhagen. CBD
12.2
-2.4
-1.2
21.3
-1.5
-3.9
Other Copenhagen and area
12.6
-0.1
-1.8
10.9
-0.3
-2.5
Northern Zealand
16.3
4.7
3.0
15.1
3.0
1.3
Zealand Region
16.3
0.6
1.9
12.3
0.4
1.8
Southern Denmark Region
13.1
1.9
0.1
16.0
0.2
-2.9
4.6
-0.6
-1.3
5.9
-0.5
-1.1
4.1
-1.3
-3.6
4.9
-1.8
-3.7
12.1
0.3
-0.7
11.3
-0.2
-1.8
Mid Jutland Region Aarhus Total Source: The Danish Property Federation.
Table 5. Residential Economic vacancy
Capital Region
Spatial vacancy
April 2017 (percent)
Quarterly change (percentage points)
Annual change (percentage points)
April 2017 (percent)
Quarterly change (percentage points)
Annual change (percentage points)
3.3
0.2
0.3
2.9
0.1
0.2
Copenhagen. CBD
4.8
0.3
1.7
4.0
0.5
1.1
Other Copenhagen and area
3.3
0.3
0.5
2.9
0.2
0.4
Northern Zealand
2.0
-0.7
-2.0
1.9
-0.7
-1.7
Zealand Region
2.3
-0.3
-1.7
3.1
-0.3
-1.8
Eastern Zealand
1.6
-0.1
-1.0
1.7
0.0
-0.8
Western and Southern Zealand
2.6
-0.4
-2.1
3.5
-0.4
-2.3
1.7
-0.7
-0.5
1.6
-0.7
-0.4
Odense
1.5
-0.2
-0.2
1.5
-0.1
-0.2
Triangle Area
2.4
0.0
-1.2
2.2
0.0
-0.9
Other Southern Denmark
1.4
-1.2
-0.3
1.4
-1.2
-0.2
4.8
1.1
1.1
4.1
0.9
1.0
Aarhus
5.2
1.5
1.8
4.3
1.3
1.8
Other Mid Jutland
3.6
0.2
-1.6
3.6
0.3
-1.5
Southern Denmark Region
Mid Jutland Region
Northern Jutland Region
4.2
0.8
1.6
4.6
0.9
1.4
Aalborg
4.1
0.5
1.7
4.4
0.6
1.8
Other Northern Denmark
6.5
1.8
1.6
7.8
1.5
0.3
3.3
0.2
0.3
3.1
0.2
0.2
Total Source: The Danish Property Federation.
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The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics, April 2017
INTERAKTIV WEBRAPPORT TOMGANG
About the Market Statistics This web report is published on 10 May 2017. Next planned publishing is early August 2017. The portfolios have approx. 76.000 rentals corresponding to an annual lease value of DKK 17.9 bn and 15.0 m m2. In order to compare, the statistical base in April 2016 had an annual lease value of DKK 16.7 bn and 14.1 m m2. The base of the economic vacancy is the actual rent. The economic vacancy is defined as: Sum of actual rent in all vacant leases divided with the sum of actual rent in both occupied and vacant rentals. The Market Statistics is based on quarterly processed property data for rentals and vacancies within the period in question. This web report has been closed per 31 March 2017 and is called April 2017. Quarterly change is from April 2017 (closed per 31 March 2017) compared to January 2017 (closed per 31 December 2016). Annual change is from April 2017 (closed per 31 March 2017) compared to April 2016 (closed per 31 March 2016). Published data are updated and valid on the date of publication. As the Market Statistics are updated ongoing, historic data might also be updated. We have chosen not to publish data, where the data is not sufficient to give valid and representative results or combinations if only one or very few portfolios are represented.
This report is based on data from 2 + 3 Ejendomme, Aberdeen Asset Management, Akelius, Alm. Brand, Andersen Partners Ejendomsadministration, AP Pension, Arkitekternes Pensionskasse, ATP, Bevica Fonden, Blue Vision, Carlsbergfondet, CBRE, CEJ Ejendomsadministration, Coller Capital, CS Pensionsfond, CW Obel Ejendomme, DADES, Danica, Dansk Sygeplejeråd, Danske Bank, DATEA, DEAS, DEAS Invest 1, DIP, DNP Ejendomme, DSB, Ejendomsselskaberne Grønløkkevej 10, Fast Ejendom Danmark, Fokus Asset Management, Frederiksberg Fonden, Færch Fonden, Grosserer Schiellerup og Hustrus Fonde, Gudbjørg og Ejnar Honorés Fond, HD Ejendomme, Højgaard Ejendomme, Industriens Pension, Jammerbugt Kommune, Jeudan, Jorcks Ejendomsselskab, JØP, Kalkværksgrundene, Kalvebod Ejendomme, KIRKBI, KLP Ejendomme, Kramers Legat, LB Forsikring, Lægernes Pensionskasse, Lærernes Pension, MP Pension, Niam, Nordea Ejendomme, Nordea Liv og Pension, North Property Asset Management, Patrizia Denmark, PBU, PenSam, PensionDanmark, Pensionskassen for Farmakonomer, PFA, Pitzner Ejendomme, PKA, ProDomus, Realdania, Sampension, Scandinavian Center Aarhus, SEB, SPG Omsorg DK1, Steen & Strøm, Taurus Ejendomsadministration, TDC Pensionskasse, Topdanmark, Tryg, Valad, Wagner Ejendomme og Aage Larsens Bolig udlejning.
*
The number of properties include properties and parent properties. A property can include one or more buildings and one or more residentials or office units. A parent property includes a property, in which there is apartments, which are registered as independent properties. For these units it is the parent properties that are counted and not each apartment.
Further information If you wish to know more about this publication please contact Director in the Danish Property Federation
Morten Marott Larsen mml@ejendomsforeningen.dk Phone: +45 28 45 56 51
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