Vol. 21 No. 3

JOURNAL OF CATASTROPHOLOGY

2006 年 9 月

Sep. 2006

*

1991 年至 2005 年《 中国地震年鉴》，20 世纪以来

- 红河断裂、怒江 - 澜沧江断裂和北东向的龙门

［1］

。该

6. 7 ～ 7. 0 级 地 震 有 16 次，占 总 数 的 43% （ 表

［4 ～ 6］ 1） 。图 1 为 20 世纪以来川滇地区强震分布格

1

* 收稿日期：2006-03-13

82 表1

21 卷

1913

7. 0

1941

7. 0

1955

6. 7

1976

7. 4

1988

7. 2

19 年公差的规律，由此我们可以依据上述计算得

1917

6. 7

1941

7. 0

1960

6. 7

1976

7. 2

1989

6. 7

1923

7. 2

1942

6. 7

1967

6. 8

1976

6. 7

1989

6. 7

1925

7. 0

1948

7. 3

1970

7. 7

1976

7. 2

1995

7. 3

1925

6. 7

1950

7. 0

1971

6. 7

1976

6. 7

1996

7. 0

1933

7. 5

1950

7. 6

1973

7. 6

1979

6. 8

1936

6. 7

1952

6. 7

1974

7. 1

1981

6. 9

1936

6. 7

1955

7. 5

1976

7. 3

1988

7. 6

2

2. 1

20 世纪以来川滇地区发生≥6. 7 级 地震的部分年份关系图

X1 `= 1913

X4 + X6 - X9 = 1913

X3 + X13 - X5 = 1913

X4 + X19 - X22 = 1913

X2 `= 1917

X3 + X8 - X9 = 1917

X4 + X21 - X23 = 1917

X4 + X11 - X13 = 1917

X3 `= 1923

X4 + X9 - X10 = 1923

X4 + X20 - X21 = 1923

X4 + X16 - X17 = 1923

X4 `= 1925

X1 + X9 - X6 = 1925

X2 + X13 - X11 = 1925

X3 + X17 - X16 = 1925

X5 `= 1933

X6 + X19 - X20 = 1933

X6 + X11 - X12 = 1933

X6 + X14 - X15 = 1933

X6 `= 1936

X9 + X1 - X4 = 1936

X9 + X19 - X22 = 1936

X7 + X12 - X13 = 1936

X7 `= 1941

X8 + X22 - X23 = 1941

X8 + X15 - X16 = 1941

X9 + X22 - X24 = 1941

X8 `= 1942

X9 + X2 - X3 = 1942

X10 + X5 - X7 = 1942

X10 + X21 - X23 = 1942

X9 `= 1948

X10 + X10 - X11 = 1948

X10 + X18 - X19 = 1948

X12 + X18 - X21 = 1948

X10 `= 1950

X11 + X18 - X19 = 1950

X12 + X18 - X20 = 1950

X13 + X20 - X23 = 1950

3期

83

X11 `= 1952

X2 + X13 - X4 = 1952

X10 + X19 - X18 = 1952

X12 + X14 - X15 = 1952

X12 `= 1955

X9 + X21 - X18 = 1955

X10 + X21 - X18 = 1955

X11 + X15 - X14 = 1955

X13 `= 1960

X1 + X15 - X3 = 1960

X15 + X3 - X5 = 1960

X14 + X21 - X22 = 1960

X14 `= 1967

X5 + X15 - X6 = 1967

X15 + X19 - X20 = 1967

X13 + X22 - X21 = 1967

X15 `= 1970

X3 + X13 - X1 = 1970

X16 + X24 - X25 = 1970

X16 + X22 - X23 = 1970

X16 `= 1971

X17 + X18 - X19 = 1971

X20 + X17 - X21 = 1971

X10 + X17 - X11 = 1971

X17 `= 1973

X15 + X18 - X16 = 1973

X18 + X22 - X23 = 1973

X24 + X18 - X25 = 1973

X18 `= 1974

X3 + X19 - X4 = 1974

X10 + X19 - X11 = 1974

X19 + X16 - X17 = 1974

X19 `= 1976

X5 + X20 - X6 = 1976

X11 + X20 - X12 = 1976

X21 + X10 - X12 = 1976

X20 `= 1979

X21 + X16 - X17 = 1979

X9 + X21 - X10 = 1979

X10 + X23 - X13 = 1979

X21 `= 1981

X6 + X19 - X20 = 1933

X22 + X13 - X14 = 1981

X22 + X13 - X14 = 1981

X22 `= 1988

X23 + X7 - X8 = 1988

X15 + X23 - X16 = 1988

X23 + X24 - X25 = 1988

X23 `= 1989

X24 + X8 - X9 = 1981

X2 + X24 - X3 = 1988

X25 + X7 - X9 = 1988

X24 `= 1995

X25 + X7 - X8 = 1995

X23 + X9 - X8 = 1995

X25 + X15 - X16 = 1995

X25 `= 1996

X24 + X8 - X7 = 1996

X23 + X24 - X22 = 1996

X9 + X23 - X7 = 1996

X17 = 1973；X18 = 1974；X19 = 1976；X20 = 1979；

X21 = 1981；X22 = 1988；X23 = 1989；X24 = 1995；

X25 = 1996

X23 + X15 + X1 - X3 - X7 = 2008

X26 `= 2007

X22 + X6 - X2 = 2007

X24 + X14 - X12 = 2007 X27 `= 2008

X22 + X7 - X3 = 2006

X24 + X21 + X8 - X18 - X6 = 2008

X24 + X6 - X3 = 2008

X25 + X14 - X12 = 2008 2. 2

X23 + X20 + X12 - X18 - X7 = 2008 X25 + X15 + X7 - X19 - X3 = 2008

X23 + X6 - X2 = 2008

X22 + X15 + X5 - X13 - X3 = 2008

X21 + X11 + X9 - X13 - X1 = 2008

X5 = 1933；X6 = 1936；X7 = 1941；X8 = 1942；

X9 = 1948；X10 = 1950；X11 = 1952；X12 = 1955；

X13 = 1960；X14 = 1967；X15 = 1970；X16 = 1971；

X17 = 1973；X18 = 1974；X19 = 1976；X20 = 1979； X21 = 1981；X22 = 1988；X23 = 1989；X24 = 1995；

3

X25 = 1996 则计算结果为：

X16 + X5 - X20 - X1 = 12

X15 + X5 - X18 - X2 = 12

X14 + X6 - X18 - X2 = 12

X15 + X7 - X19 - X3 = 12

X5 = 1933；X6 = 1936；X7 = 1941；X8 = 1942；

X9 = 1948；X10 = 1950；X11 = 1952；X12 = 1955；

X13 = 1960；X14 = 1967；X15 = 1970；X16 = 1971；

（2） 加强抗震能力建设

84

21 卷

［1］ 苏有锦，秦嘉政. 川滇地区强地震活动与区域新构造运动的关 系［ J］. 中国地震， 2001， 17（ 1）： 24-34. ［2］ 邢东兴，孙虎，延军平. 陕西省大旱年发生概率及可能发生的 年份预测［ J］. 灾害学， 2004， 19（ 1）： 69-72. ［3］ 黄子波. 川滇地区强烈地震预报研究. 四川地震， 1994， （ 1）： 9-

（4） 广泛宣传动员，普及防震抗震知识

13. ［4］ 中国地震局.《 中国历史强震目录》 （ 公元前 23 世纪 ～ 公元 1911 年） ［ M］. 北京：地震出版社， 1995. ［5］ 中国地震局.《 中国近代地震目录》 （ 公元 1912 年 ～ 1990 年） ［ M］. 北京：中国科学技术出版社， 1999. ［6］ 《 中国地震年鉴》编辑部. 中国地震年鉴 1991 ～ 2005［ Z］. 北 京： 地震出版社， 1991 ～ 2005.［ 7］翁文波. 预测论基础［ M］. 北 京：石油出版社， 1984.

（5） 加强地震监测网络建设

［8］ 陈，等.“ 十一・五”期间中国重大地震灾害预测预警和防治 对策［ J］. 灾害学， 2005， 20（ 1）： 1-14.

Study on Earthquake Tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan Region Based on Commensurability LONG Xiao-xia，YAN Jun-ping，SUN Hu and WANG Zu-zheng （ The College of Tourism and Environment，Shaanxi Normal University，Xi`an 710062，China）

Abstract：Sichuan-Yunnan region is prone to strong and high frequent earthquakes. Based on the data analysis of earthquake disasters in Sichuan-Yunnan region，the tendency of the next strong earthquake（ s）is predicted by commensurability of ternary，quaternion and quintuple，for the purpose of disaster prevention and reduction. Key words：Sichuan-Yunnan region；earthquake disaster；commensurability；tendency prediction

2006年发表在《灾害学》上的地震预测论文，看看结论吧，2008……

2006年发表在《灾害学》上的地震预测论文，看看结论吧，2008……