THE HOUSE REPORT - DEC 2023

T H E

HOUSE R E P O R T

INSIDER LOOK AT THE PHOENIX METRO MARKET

TRENDS

EXPERT GUIDANCE

INSIDER INSIGHT

An overview into which trends to watch

Navigate this year’s market with confidence

Words of wisdom from Nicole Kobrinsky

Copyright December © 2023

CONTENTS

Overall Insights 1

A quick and insightful look at the realities of the real estate market in Phoenix Metro

Highlights 2

We utilize the The Cromford Index™ which is a set of market indicators to measure the balance of supply and demand

Trends 3-4

A comprehensive look at more detailed market statistics from a past and current perspective

OVERALL INSIGHTS After rising during October, and peaking at an average just over 8% mid-month, mortgage rates declined thereafter and tumbled throughout November. In theory this should have injected some life into housing demand, but there is precious little evidence of this in the numbers above. We have fewer homes under contract than last month and far fewer than a year ago, when we were all depressed about the low demand. Sales counts are also down from last year and last month reaching the unusually low level of 4,616 in November.

HOUSE REPORT | PAGE 1

One reason for the severe lack of demand may be that home prices are noticeably higher than a year ago, something few people were predicting 12 months ago.

Over the last months there were mixed signals. The median sales price grew almost 1% but the average price per square foot dropped by over 2%. This followed a sharp in crease the month before. When this happens it is usually caused by the luxury market. With much lower unit volumes, the luxury market can vary a lot month to month and the effect on the $/SF can be substantial. The luxury market has negligible effect on the median sales price. The median sales price tends to be strongly influenced by unit volumes at the low end. Despite the weak demand, supply is still below normal which is preventing prices from tumbling.

Supply has risen for several months but is now stable again as few people list there homes in December and several take their homes off the market for the holiday season. We anticipate more supply appearing in January.

The new home market continues to outperform the re-sale market. Mortgage rate buy-downs have kept new home demand at a healthy level.

December is not usually a month for us to see a flood of new home buyers, so we anticipate the the second half of January will tell us whether buyers see a big difference between mortgage rates around 7% compared with 8%. The last 12 months have been full of surprises, so caution and watching the statistics carefully is still the order of the day.

Nicole Kobrinsky PRESIDENT & BROKER OF RECORD

DATA SOURCE: ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS) & CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC

HIGHLIGHTS CROMFORD MARKET INDEX | ALL AREAS & TYPES

MARKET TYPE ABOVE 100 SELLER'S MARKET

100 BALANCED

BELOW 100 BUYER'S MARKET

HOUSE REPORT| PAGE 2

SUPPLY TREND

MARKET INDEX

DEMAND TREND

The Supply Trend Index is up a small 4.7 pts in the last month

The 100 mark represents the index value for a balanced market. A value above 100 represents a market that favors a seller.

A value below 100 represents a market that favors a buyer. The Market Index Trend is down 24.2 pts in the last month.

The Demand Index Trend is down a small 3.5pts in the last month

DATA SOURCE: ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS) & CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC

TRENDS THREE YEAR | ALL AREAS & TYPES

CROMFORD MARKET INDEX

HOUSE REPORT| PAGE 3

MARKET HIGH

2023 EXPECTATIONS

MARKET LOW

The Market Index was 514 at the height of the market in May 2021.

In January 2023, we began the shift back into to a seller's market and are sitting at an Index of 193.8.

Resale pricing paused in July but still looks likely to overtake last year's pricing during the next three months.

In the late Spring of 2022, the market decelerated quickly. The lowest Market Index of 88.3 was seen in December 2022.

DATA SOURCE: ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS) & CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC

TRENDS YEAR OVER YEAR | ALL AREAS & TYPES

AS OF DECEMBER 2022

AS OF DECEMBER 2023

19,155

15,980

-17%

15,247

4.8%

21,206

18,050

-15%

17,364

4.0%

PENDING LISTINGS

4,301

3,798

-12%

3,911

-2.9%

LISTINGS UNDER CONTRACT

6,578

5,867

-7.6%

6,028

-2.7%

DAYS ON MARKET

61

57

-6.55

56

1.78%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

3.8 mo

3.6 mo

-5.26%

2.9 mo

24.1%

SALES PER MONTH

4,928

4,616

-6.3%

5,210

-11%

SALES PER YEAR

89,649

72,357

-19.2%

72,894

-0.74%

MONTHLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$272.29

$288.97

6.1%

$295.13

-2.1%

MONTHLY MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$420,000

$439,000

4.6%

$435,000

0.09%

ACTIVE LISTINGS (excluding under contract)

ACTIVE LISTINGS (including under contract)

%∆ (yr) 1 MONTH AGO

%∆ (1 mo)

HOUSE REPORT| PAGE 4

PRICING

INVENTORY

VOLUME

The monthly median sales price trend down and monthly average price per square foot trend up slightly YOY.

Active listings (excluding UBC) are down 17% and months of inventory is down from 3.8 months to 3.6 months YOY. Prices are likely to inch upward in the coming months especially if demand picks up in the Fall and/or interest rates decline.

Overall volume of residential sales for the year is down 24.2%.

DATA SOURCE: ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS) & CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC

Questions or Comments? Email Report author: Nicole Kobrinsky at nicole@housegallery.com

6901 East 1st St Suite 103 Scottsdale, Arizona 85251 (480)808-1223 | housegallery.com

© 2023 HOUSE GALLERY COLLECTIVE. ALL WORLDWIDE RIGHTS RESERVED. ALL MATERIAL PRESENTED HEREIN IS INTENDED FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. WHILE, THIS INFORMATION IS BELIEVED TO BE CORRECT, IT IS REPRESENTED SUBJECT TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGES OR WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS INFORMATION IS BASED ON DATA FROM ARIZONA REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE, INC (ARMLS), CROMFORD ASSOCIATES LLC , REALTORS PROPERTY RESOURCE®, LLC AND INTERPRETED BY HOUSE GALLERY COLLECTIVE, LLC. DATA HAS BEEN LIMITED TO SALES REPORTED WITHIN THE COUNTY OF MARICOPA BOUNDARIES. IF YOUR PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY LISTED WITH ANOTHER REAL ESTATE BROKER, OR YOUR ARE UNDER A BUYER REPRESENTATION CONTRACT WITH ANOTHER REAL ESTATE BROKER, PLEASE DISREGARD THIS OFFER. IT IS NOT OUR INTENTION TO SOLICIT THE OFFERINGS OF OTHER REAL ESTATE BROKERS.