Page 1

Issue 4 | Oct. 18, 2017

Permits Plus + A bi-monthly statistics and advocacy update for HBA of F-M members

Total Permits

FOR YOUR CALENDAR: Oct. 26 - Awards Gala & Annual Meeting Nov. 13 - Residential Energy Construction: How to Design for Energy Efficiency*

as of 9/30/17 | F-M Metro Miscellaneous 9.5% Public 1%

Total Value as of 9/30/17 | F-M Metro Public 4%

Nov. 28 - Lunch Session: Building Officials’ Roundtable

Jan. 30 - Education Summit: Continuing Education for: Minnesota Contractors, Plumbers, Power Limited Technicians *Offered by Solution Design

Visit the calendar at hbafm.com for details or to register for events.

THROUGH SEPTEMBER

Residential Remodel 53%

Nov. 15 - High Performance Home Financing Rules, Valuation and Builder Tips to be Successful*

Nov. 30 - Health, Tech & Trades Career Expo

CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY

MultiFamily Housing Starts .5% 20% New Commercial 3%

Commercial Remodel 13%

Nov. 14 - Case Studies of Residential Green Buildings* Nov. 15 - Describing, Documenting, Valuing, Marketing and Financing High Performance Homes*

Published six times per year in addition to the Plains Builder, Permits Plus aims to provide a concise report on building permit numbers and a timely update on Association advocacy efforts.

Miscellaneous 6%

Commercial Remodel 14%

Housing Starts 28%

Residential Remodel 5% New Commercial 31%

Multi-Family 12%

The HBA of F-M produces two monthly building permit reports

1. F-M Metro covering Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead and West Fargo, including comparisons from the last five years

2. Outlying towns covering Barnesville and Hawley in Minnesota and Casselton, Harwood, Horace, Kindred, Mapleton and Oxbow for North Dakota. This report was initiated in 2016, so five years of data is not available. These two reports are included as inserts in the Permits Plus.

On page two, you will find a permit comparison chart for the F-M Metro, and a housing comparison chart for the F-M metro and outlying towns.

HBA OF F-M + 1802 32ND AVE S + FARGO ND 58103 + (701) 232-5846 + HBAFM.COM + INFO@HBAFM.COM


THANK YOU Dilworth City Planner Stan Thurlow, Fargo Director of Planning Jim Gilmour, Moorhead

City Planner Kristie Leshovsky and West Fargo Planning Director Larry Weil for providing insight on this quarter’s permit report. Thurlow:

There was a shortage of buildable lots in 2017 and very little variety. More lots will be coming online in 2018. Weil:

The average valuation for multiple family units has increased by 18 percent, or nearly $24,600 per unit. The number of multiple-family units being constructed in West Fargo has been down over the last couple of years, because of the large number of units constructed between 20122015. The vacancy rate has been fairly high, as it appears to be taking some time for the market to absorb the number of units.

PERMIT COMPARISON F-M METRO

HOUSING STARTS

HOUSING VALUE

TOTAL PERMITS

TOTAL VALUE

City

Dilworth Moorhead Fargo West Fargo Totals Dilworth Moorhead Fargo West Fargo Totals Housing Starts Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Totals Housing Starts Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Totals

Jan - Sept 2017 Jan - Sept 2016 7 21 100 146 277 363 272 393 656 923 $1,146,000 $4,775,900 $19,507,905 $28,818,300 $64,412,375 $95,111,952 $61,478,510 $87,727,060 $146,544,790 $216,433,212 656 923 12 28 96 105 1753 1770 415 432 26 34 324 453 3282 3745 $146,544,790 $216,433,212 $65,811,598 $68,569,401 $163,908,870 $139,682,208 $27,219,805 $26,970,407 $73,757,539 $153,206,828 $20,395,352 $74,787,978 $30,942,076 $35,601,672 $528,580,030 $715,251,706

-14 -46 -86 -121 -267 -$3,629,900 -$9,310,395 -$30,699,577 -$26,248,550 -$69,888,422 -267 -16 -9 -17 -17 -8 -129 -463 -$69,888,422 -$2,757,803 $24,226,662 $249,398 -$79,449,289 -$54,392,626 $4,659,596 -$4,659,596 -$186,671,676

Percentage Difference -67% -32% -24% -31% -29% -76% -32% -32% -30% -32% -29% -57% -9% -1% -4% -24% -28% -12% -32% -4% 17% 1% -52% -73% 13% -13% -26%

Difference -214 -1 -28 -24 -267 -$60,873,817 $1,719,067 -$7,133,672 -$3,600,000 -$69,888,422 44 -17 0 -1 26 $15,041,457 -$1,691,000 $0 -$250,000 $13,100,457

Percentage Difference -28% -1% -56% -100% -29% -32% 12% -72% -100% -32% 96% -77% 0% -100% 38% 82% -57% 0% -100% 61%

Difference

HOUSING COMPARISON F-M METRO AND OUTLYING COMMUNITIES

SEE INSERT FOR COMPLETE F-M METRO AND OUTLYING REPORTS Thurlow:

For the F-M metropolitan area, the question of lower housing activity might be answered by a combination of rising home prices, a long period of low interest rates that provided financing that met latent demand and a slowing of growth.

2

METRO HOUSING PERMITS

Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Totals METRO Single Family HOUSING Twin Home VALUE Row / Town House Duplex Totals OUTLYING Single Family HOUSING Twin Home PERMITS Row / Town House Duplex Totals OUTLYING Single Family HOUSING Twin Home VALUE Row / Town House Duplex Totals COMBINED HOUSING STARTS COMBINED HOUSING VALUE

Jan - Sept 2017 Jan - Sept 2016 557 771 77 78 22 50 0 24 656 923 $127,422,790 $188,296,607 $16,322,000 $14,602,933 $2,800,000 $9,933,672 $0 $3,600,000 $146,544,790 $216,433,212 90 46 5 22 0 0 0 1 95 69 $33,296,200 $18,254,743 $1,258,000 $2,949,000 $0 $0 $0 $250,000 $34,554,200 $21,453,743

751

992

-241

-24%

$181,098,990

$237,886,955

-$56,787,965

-24%

Gilmour:

The construction permits for single family homes appear to be at or above last year’s level for smaller homes on smaller lots. Construction of larger homes is at a lower level than last year. The smaller homes appear to fit the housing needs and incomes of young families. The smaller homes may also be popular with empty nesters who are moving to a smaller house. Weil: The most significant area of reduction is in the higher price-point market. The more affordable units in both single-family and twin homes seem to be about the same as 2016.

Gilmour:

Apartment building permits in the metro were 466 units through Sept. 30, down significantly from 819 a year ago. The construction market appears to be adjusting to the vacancy rates. Of the permits for 466 units, 420 of those are in Fargo. Leshovsky:

We have reviewed the building activity and cannot identify a specific cause for the decrease in new home construction, but it appears to be a metrowide cycle that we hope will be temporary.

Permits Plus


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AUG 2017

Minnesota

JULY 2017

AUG 2016

3.7%*

4.0%

2.2%*

3.1%

4.4%

4.9%

2.2%

2.5%

Source: bls.gov

3.8%*

North Dakota Source: bls.gov

2.3%*

United States Source: bls.gov

4.4%

Fargo-Moorhead Source: bls.gov

2.2%

*Preliminary

MORTGAGE RATES

Source: Wells Fargo as of Oct. 9, 2017

30-Year Fixed

4.000%

15-Year Fixed

3.375%

30-Year Fixed FHA

4.875%

5-Year ARM

3.750%

30-Year Jumbo

4.125%

SINGLE AND MULTI-FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS July 2017

July 2016

Minnesota

A LUNCH SESSION YOU

WON’T WANT TO MISS

% change

Source: NAHB

13,384

11,464

17%

2,285

-20%

681,660

8%

1,282

-16%

North Dakota Source: NAHB

1,826

United States Source: NAHB

734,886

Fargo-Moorhead Source: HBA of F-M

1,077

FRAMING LUMBER PRICES Source: National Association of Home Builders

Date

Sept. 28 Sept. 22 Sept. 1

Aug. 11

BUILDING OFFICIALS’ ROUNDTABLE

NOV. 28

LOCAL REAL ESTATE

Source: F-M Area Association of Realtors Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead, West Fargo | Single-Family, Condo, Townhouse, Twin Home, Duplex

Sept. 29 2017 YTD

Sept. 29 2016 YTD

% change

$232,388

$227,981

2%

$525,941,567

$507,941,567

4%

Home Prices

Closed MLS Volume

Lumber Composite Price

CME Futures

$429

$393.1

331

417

-21%

$365.5

1,931

1,811

7%

$436

$401.20

Closed MLS - New Construction Units

$403

$385.7

Closed MLS - Existing Residential Units

$423

U.S. REGULAR GASOLINE PRICES

Source: Energy Information Administration

U.S.

Midwest

HBAFM.COM CLICK: EVENTS, CALENDAR

(DOLLARS PER GALLON)

Oct. 2

Sept. 25

Sept. 18

Sept. 11

Sept. 4

$2.503

$2.466

$2.544

$2.64

$2.639

$2.682

Issue 4 | Oct. 18, 2017

$2.701

$2.75

$2.8

$2.794

3


Home Builders Association of F-M 1802 32nd Ave. S. Fargo, N.D. 58103

HOUSING ACTIVITY

THROUGH SEPTEMBER

F-M METRO HOUSING PERMITS Housing Through 3rd Quarter 1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0 2008

Permits Plus

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

4


Home Builders Association of Fargo-Moorhead F-M Metro Building Permit Report 2017 - Year-to-Date (September) 2013

DILWORTH Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

Permits

25 25 0 0 0 0 2 48 1 0 22 98

Units

0 0 0

2014 Value Permits

$5,097,000 $5,097,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $508,000 $240,538 $24,000 $0 $30,000 $5,899,538

20 18 2 0 0 1 3 32 4 0 23 83

$20,830,300 $16,137,900 $4,501,400 $0 $191,000 $18,940,000 $30,750,541 $3,728,566 $11,336,911 $0 $167,656 $85,753,974

173 113 36 6 0 3 20 363 76 0 48 683

Units

0 0 0

2015 Value Permits

$4,775,000 $4,375,000 $400,000 $0 $0 $1,600,000 $1,198,000 $382,839 $3,040,000 $0 $596,499 $11,592,338

24 20 4 0 0 0 3 48 4 0 11 90

$32,111,639 $23,552,714 $5,318,925 $3,240,000 $0 $7,160,000 $8,226,597 $4,904,256 $14,719,600 $0 $300,180 $67,422,272

181 133 48 0 0 11 25 393 75 0 40 725

Units

0 0 0

2016 Value Permits

$6,630,850 $5,690,850 $940,000 $0 $0 $0 $422,000 $290,870 $605,000 $0 $36,689 $7,985,409

21 21 0 0 0 0 0 55 1 0 18 95

$36,143,899 $28,037,899 $8,106,000 $0 $0 $21,226,880 $9,992,714 $3,775,265 $8,441,403 $0 $899,375 $80,479,536

146 118 4 0 12 6 26 404 59 0 58 699

Units

2017 Value Permits

$4,775,900 $4,775,900 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $367,356 $750,000 $0 $166,800 $6,060,056

7 7 0 0 0 0 3 39 2 0 14 65

$28,818,300 $24,468,300 $750,000 0 $0 24 $3,600,000 126 $9,933,755 $31,995,215 $4,839,877 $73,502,276 $0 $485,593 $149,575,016

Units

5-Yr Avg Value

Permits

$1,146,000 $1,146,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,856,413 $199,692 $79,385 $0 $25,150 $5,306,640

19 18 1 0 0 0 2 44 2 0 18 86

100 92 8 0 0 1 27 388 75 0 24 615

$19,507,905 $18,387,905 $1,120,000 0 $0 0 $0 45 $4,400,000 $56,402,137 $4,343,288 $18,801,954 $0 $282,000 $103,737,284

143 106 27 1 3 6 24 378 69 0 42 661

$95,111,952 277 $84,613,680 247 $4,904,600 26 19 $5,593,672 4 0 $0 0 656 $58,635,646 11 $61,756,573 43 $16,120,730 966 $69,598,727 293 $37,897,436 21 $31,333,561 273 $370,454,625 1,884

$64,412,375 $59,736,375 $4,216,000 4 $460,000 0 $0 634 $61,411,598 $76,580,625 $16,744,054 $47,832,473 $7,367,009 $30,127,011 $304,475,145

354 284 38 32 0 22 50 889 300 30 298 1,943

272 211 43 18 0 0 23 360 45 5 13 718

$61,478,510 $48,152,510 $10,986,000 18 $2,340,000 0 $0 0 $0 $27,069,695 $5,932,771 $7,043,727 $13,028,343 $507,915 $115,060,961

367 268 55 15 0 5 28 314 46 6 33 799

$216,433,212 656 $188,296,607 557 $14,602,933 77 50 $9,933,672 22 24 $3,600,000 0 782 $68,569,401 12 $139,682,208 96 $26,970,407 1753 $153,206,828 415 $74,787,978 26 $35,601,672 324 $715,251,706 3,282

$146,544,790 $127,422,790 $16,322,000 22 $2,800,000 0 $0 679 $65,811,598 $163,908,870 $27,219,805 $73,757,539 $20,395,352 $30,942,076 $528,580,030

884 677 121 48 3 33 104 1624 418 36 391 3,489

0 0 0

0 0 0

Units

0 0 0

Value

$4,484,950 $4,216,950 $268,000 $0 $0 $320,000 $1,196,883 $296,259 $899,677 $0 $171,028 $7,368,796

MOORHEAD Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

116 76 38 0 1 7 23 340 60 0 38 584

0 2 274

24 0 86

0 0 254

5 5 157

$27,482,409 $22,116,944 $3,959,265 $648,000 $758,200 $12,332,127 $27,473,441 $4,318,250 $25,360,429 $0 $426,961 $97,393,616

FARGO Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

453 351 70 32 0 21 47 854 315 28 234 1,952

$84,933,638 312 $68,646,538 255 $12,075,100 26 32 $4,212,000 31 0 $0 0 817 $57,677,999 31 $51,432,496 51 $14,324,776 815 $31,576,283 292 $14,311,084 48 $27,669,299 342 $281,925,575 1,891

$68,935,976 365 $58,991,976 258 $5,294,000 34 31 $4,650,000 73 0 $0 0 1297 $106,280,000 25 $217,913,749 62 $12,957,367 891 $93,034,353 289 $101,377,075 29 $31,350,149 281 $631,848,669 1,942

$79,653,825 363 $63,661,005 310 $5,735,490 34 73 $10,257,330 19 0 $0 0 805 $68,954,603 22 $40,398,056 45 $12,603,132 917 $62,699,792 310 $128,995,154 26 $19,802,695 361 $413,107,257 2,044

32 0 842

$78,609,553 $67,129,915 $6,445,038 $5,034,600 $0 $70,591,969 $89,616,300 $14,550,012 $60,948,326 $57,989,552 $28,056,543 $400,362,254

WEST FARGO Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

388 318 42 5 0 11 24 220 45 4 51 743

$81,384,453 $73,005,453 $5,299,000 28 $3,080,000 0 $0 241 $16,970,000 $27,483,300 $2,712,101 $19,114,227 $1,479,600 $1,117,786 $150,261,467

435 258 100 13 0 11 31 254 47 5 55 838

$87,854,337 $64,639,337 $13,245,000 77 $9,970,000 0 $0 384 $28,100,000 $51,690,301 $4,229,206 $6,027,536 $16,387,951 $1,794,212 $196,083,543

347 233 52 30 0 3 28 341 33 6 31 789

$78,428,571 $61,420,571 $7,765,000 62 $9,243,000 0 $0 42 $4,759,000 $36,439,630 $6,399,688 $21,498,112 $8,595,097 $8,690,135 $164,810,233

393 322 40 8 0 0 34 394 62 8 16 907

$87,727,060 $74,438,727 $8,948,333 31 $4,340,000 0 $0 0 $0 $45,930,420 $5,642,444 $9,355,825 $36,890,542 $3,615,718 $189,162,009

43 0 133

$79,374,586 $64,331,320 $9,248,667 $5,794,600 $0 $9,965,800 $37,722,669 $4,983,242 $12,607,885 $15,276,307 $3,145,153 $163,075,643

TOTAL Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

10/4/2017

982 770 150 37 1 39 96 1462 421 32 345 3,377

$192,245,391 940 $162,886,891 644 $21,875,500 164 60 $7,292,000 50 2 $191,000 0 1332 $93,587,999 46 $110,174,337 105 $21,005,981 1464 $62,051,421 419 $15,790,684 53 $28,984,741 468 $523,840,554 3,495

$193,676,952 917 $151,559,027 644 $24,257,925 138 132 $17,860,000 103 0 $0 0 1767 $143,140,000 39 $279,028,647 118 $22,473,668 1673 $116,821,489 401 $117,765,026 35 $34,041,040 363 $906,946,822 3,546

$200,857,145 923 $158,810,325 771 $22,546,490 78 135 $19,500,330 27 0 $0 12 1101 $94,940,483 28 $87,252,400 105 $23,068,955 1770 $93,244,307 432 $137,590,251 34 $29,428,894 453 $666,382,435 3,745

No assurance is provided on this report. Permit information reported here may have changed. For the most current permit information, please contact the individual cities.

80 5 1,132

$189,951,498 $157,795,128 $19,920,970 $11,477,200 $758,200 $93,209,896 $156,009,292 $24,147,763 $99,816,317 $73,265,858 $31,799,685 $668,200,309


Home Builders Association of Fargo-Moorhead Outlying Communities Building Permit Report 2017 - Year-to-Date (September) 2016 BARNESVILLE, MN Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

2017

2016

11 11 0 0 0 0 0 44 5 0 18 78

$2,833,000 $2,833,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 $506,376 $60,500 $0 $127,591 $3,527,467

4 4 0 0 0 0 1 51 3 0 13 72

$1,389,000 $1,389,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $96,000 $405,217 $20,545 $0 $23,008 $1,933,770

HAWLEY, MN Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

CASSELTON, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

1 1 0 0 0 0 2 29 2 1 3 38

$311,000 $311,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $202,000 $431,115 $52,000 $1,470,600 $52,000 $2,518,715

6 6 0 0 0 0 1 18 3 3 0 31

$2,125,006 $2,125,006 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $140,434 $299,816 $645,000 $23,369,147 $0 $26,579,403

KINDRED, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

3 3 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 11

HARWOOD, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 5

$180,000 $180,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,800 $0 $0 $190,600 $372,400

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 3 10

$220,000 $220,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $40,500 $0 $0 $147,000 $407,500

MAPLETON, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

HORACE, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 0 2 12

$305,000 $305,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $266,336 $75,000 $0 $44,500 $690,836

27 26 1 0 0 0 4 21 6 0 30 88

$7,896,435 $7,496,435 $400,000 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $1,021,000 $1,422,796 $741,841 $0 $618,616 $11,700,688

10/4/2017

Permits

Units

0 0 0

0 0 0

Value Permits

Units

0 0 0

Value

Permits

Units

6 5 0 0 1 0 1 4 0 0 15 26

2017 Value Permits

Units

Value

$1,460,000 $1,210,000 $0 $0 $250,000 $0 $615,333 $11,100 $0 $0 $96,350 $2,182,783

3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 20

$607,000 $607,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $519,400 $0 $0 $0 $1,126,400

4 4 0 0 0 0 2 7 1 1 0 15

37 15 22 0 0 0 1 12 1 1 0 52

$7,015,743 $4,066,743 $2,949,000 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $650,000 $132,846 $30,670 $6,439,325 $0 $14,268,584

35 31 4 0 0 0 0 17 3 0 1 56

OXBOW, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 11

$8,742,000 $8,742,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $1,300,000 $18,000 $0 $0 $0 $10,060,000

15 15 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 17

$11,830,203 $11,830,203 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 $352,000 $0 $1,258,000 $0 $13,440,203

TOTAL Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

69 46 22 0 1 0 5 107 9 2 41 233

$21,453,743 $18,254,743 $2,949,000 0 $0 1 $250,000 0 $0 $2,767,333 $1,886,973 $218,170 $7,909,925 $511,041 $34,747,185

95 90 5 0 0 0 8 121 16 5 64 309

$34,554,200 $33,296,200 $1,258,000 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $1,602,434 $2,672,600 $1,427,386 $25,580,247 $2,853,624 $68,690,491

No assurance is provided on this report. Permit information reported here may have changed. For the most current permit information, please contact the individual cities.

0 1 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

$940,000 $940,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,997,000 $2,937,000

$1,240,000 $1,240,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $345,000 $59,198 $15,000 $953,100 $0 $2,612,298

$8,913,556 $8,055,556 $858,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $93,073 $5,000 $0 $68,000 $9,079,629

Permits Plus 2017 Issue 4  

Welcome to the October issue of Permits Plus, sharing permit numbers for Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead and West Fargo, as well as outlying commu...

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