Page 1

Issue 2 | Aug. 2, 2017

Permits Plus + A bi-monthly statistics and advocacy update for HBA of F-M members FOR YOUR CALENDAR: Aug. 10 - Associate Appreciation & Family Picnic

Sept. 16-17 and 23-24 - Fall Parade of Homes Sept. 26 - Lunch Session: International Builders Show: What You Need To Know

Oct. 17 - Lunch Session: What to Expect From a Roadside Inspection Oct. 26 - Awards Gala & Annual Meeting

Visit the calendar at hbafm.com for details.

COUNTDOWN TO IBS

Registration is open for the 2018 National Association of Home Builders’ International Builders Show. The best deals on IBS registration only happen in August! • •

• •

IBS expo pass - free for NAHB members and $50 for nonmembers. Save $100 on a full registration, with access to 140+ IBS education sessions led by industry experts and phenomenal speakers. Discounted one-day education passes. Free spouse registration.

IBS is Jan. 9-11 in Orlando. Visit www.BuildersShow.com for details.

Published six times per year in addition to the Plains Builder, Permits Plus aims to provide a concise report on building permit numbers and a timely update on Association advocacy efforts.

The HBA of F-M produces two monthly building permit reports 1. F-M Metro covering Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead and West Fargo, including comparisons from the last five years 2. Outlying towns covering Barnesville and Hawley in Minnesota and Casselton, Harwood, Horace, Kindred, Mapleton and Oxbow for North Dakota. This report was initiated in 2016, so five years of data is not available. These two reports are included as inserts in the Permits Plus. On page two, you will find a permit comparison chart for the F-M Metro, and a housing comparison chart for the F-M metro and outlying towns.

Observations on housing through June After two extremely strong housing starts in 2015 and 2016, this year’s permit numbers covering Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead and West Fargo have come back to earth. To put it in perspective, 2017’s second quarter ranks in the top ten of all housing starts for the metro. TOP 10 SECOND QUARTERS FOR HOUSING Rank

Year

1

2004

3

2015

2

2005

Housing Starts

758 621 611

4

2006

573

6

2014

500

8

2007

484

10

2017

5 7

9

2016 2013

2003

571

487

470 430

Through June, housing activity in outlying markets (primarily Horace, Mapleton and Oxbow) picked up over last year. While the number of metro housing permits is down

25 percent, and value is down 27 percent, outlying housing permits are up 88 percent and value is up 124 percent. Considering housing permit valuation for outlying communities in addition to the F-M metro, total housing value is only down about 11 percent compared to this time last year. Some possibilities on the decrease in activity in the F-M Metro include the following: • Fluctuations in housing are common as markets adjust. -- There are more homes (existing and new construction) currently on the market than in the recent past. There is more supply in this seller’s market, while demand has dropped off a bit, or stayed about the same. • Outlying markets accounted for 62 housing permits through June and $23.7 million in value, drawing some activity to smaller communities. • Builders cite issues with land availability and land costs, Permits continued on page 4

HBA OF F-M + 1802 32ND AVE S + FARGO ND 58103 + (701) 232-5846 + HBAFM.COM + INFO@HBAFM.COM


PERMIT COMPARISON F-M METRO

HOUSING STARTS

HOUSING VALUE

TOTAL PERMITS

TOTAL VALUE

City

Dilworth Moorhead Fargo West Fargo Totals Dilworth Moorhead Fargo West Fargo Totals Housing Starts Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Totals Housing Starts Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Totals

Jan - June 2017 Jan - June 2016 5 7 53 77 197 261 175 226 430 571 $721,000 $1,595,900 $11,074,500 $15,375,000 $46,303,091 $65,128,902 $41,209,210 $53,619,983 $99,307,801 $135,719,785 430 571 8 10 44 56 1101 1160 271 274 11 30 187 233 2052 2334 $99,307,801 $135,719,785 $28,415,400 $23,727,655 $99,852,888 $60,378,141 $16,451,110 $17,362,695 $41,980,652 $84,402,251 $15,587,337 $67,195,526 $12,061,952 $17,877,995 $313,657,140 $406,664,048

Difference -2 -24 -64 -51 -141 -$874,900 -$4,300,500 -$18,825,811 -$12,410,773 -$36,411,984 -141 -2 -12 -59 -3 -19 -46 -282 -$36,411,984 $4,687,745 $39,474,747 -$911,585 -$42,421,599 -$51,608,189 -$5,816,043 -$93,006,908

Percentage Difference -29% -31% -25% -23% -25% -55% -28% -29% -23% -27% -25% -20% -21% -5% -1% -63% -20% -12% -27% 20% 65% -5% -50% -77% -33% -23%

Perspective: 2015’s second quarter was the strongest start since 2005. 2016’s second quarter was down just slightly from 2015.

SEE INSERT FOR COMPLETE F-M METRO AND OUTLYING REPORTS Public permit drop likely reflects the decline of schoolrelated construction the past five years.

HOUSING COMPARISON INCLUDING F-M METRO AND OUTLYING COMMUNITIES

METRO HOUSING PERMITS

Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Totals METRO Single Family HOUSING Twin Home VALUE Row / Town House Duplex Totals OUTLYING Single Family HOUSING Twin Home PERMITS Row / Town House Duplex Totals OUTLYING Single Family HOUSING Twin Home VALUE Row / Town House Duplex Totals COMBINED STARTS COMBINED VALUE

2

Jan - June 2017 Jan - June 2016 361 437 65 60 4 50 0 24 430 571 $84,470,801 $110,054,180 $14,377,000 $12,131,933 $460,000 $9,933,672 $0 $3,600,000 $99,307,801 $135,719,785 57 27 5 6 0 0 0 0 62 33 $22,442,218 $9,900,743 $1,258,000 $681,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $23,700,218 $10,581,743

-76 5 -46 -24 -141 -$25,583,379 $2,245,067 -$9,473,672 -$3,600,000 -$36,411,984 30 -1 0 0 29 $12,541,475 $577,000 $0 $0 $13,118,475

Percentage Difference -17% 8% -92% -100% -25% -23% 19% -95% -100% -27% 111% -17% 0% 0% 88% 127% 85% 0% 0% 124%

Difference

492

604

-112

-19%

$106,913,019

$119,954,923

-$13,041,904

-11%

There has been a decline in row/ townhouse attached housing across communities that have routinely seen such activity.

Outlying markets accounted for 62 housing permits through June and $23.7 million in value, showing a draw of activity to smaller communities. Considering housing permit valuation for outlying communities in addition to the F-M metro, total housing value is only down about 11 percent compared to this time last year.

Permits Plus


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES June 2017

Minnesota

May 2017

June 2016

3.9%

3.9%

2.5%

3.2%

4.3%

4.9%

2.3%

2.6%

Source: bls.gov

3.7%*

North Dakota Source: bls.gov

2.3%*

United States Source: bls.gov

4.4%

Fargo-Moorhead Source: bls.gov

Not available.

*Preliminary

MORTGAGE RATES

Source: Wells Fargo as of July 19, 2017

30-Year Fixed

4.000%

15-Year Fixed

3.375%

30-Year Fixed FHA

4.625%

5-Year ARM

3.625%

30-Year Jumbo

4.000%

SINGLE AND MULTI-FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS May 2017

May 2016

Minnesota

% change

Source: NAHB

9,401

7,552

24%

North Dakota

JAN. 9-11, 2018 | ORLANDO

Source: NAHB

1,189

United States

1,399

-15%

471,368

7%

750

-6%

REGISTRATION NOW OPEN! BUILDERSSHOW.COM

Source: NAHB

502,055

Fargo-Moorhead Source: HBA of F-M

704

FRAMING LUMBER PRICES Source: National Association of Home Builders

Date

June 23

June 30 July 7

July 14

Lumber Composite Price

CME Futures

$397

$366

$397

$363

$399

$352.8

$411

$367.4

LOCAL REAL ESTATE

Source: F-M Area Association of Realtors Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead, West Fargo | Single-Family, Condo, Townhouse, Twin Home, Duplex

July 19, 2017 YTD July 19, 2016 YTD % change Home Prices $230,073

$225,748

2%

$360, 754,942

$343,362,444

5%

236

279

-15%

1,332

1,242

7%

Closed MLS Volume

Closed MLS - New Construction Units Closed MLS - Existing Residential Units

U.S. REGULAR GASOLINE PRICES

Source: Energy Information Administration

U.S.

Midwest

June 19

June 26

$2.181

$2.171

$2.318

Issue 2 | Aug. 2, 2017

$2.288

(DOLLARS PER GALLON)

July 3

July 10

July 17

$2.139

$2.225

$2.181

$2.260

$2.297

$2.278

3


Home Builders Association of F-M 1802 32nd Ave. S. Fargo, N.D. 58103

Permits continued from page 1

particularly in West Fargo, floodproof basement costs in Fargo, and Minnesota’s more stringent code regulations, in playing a part of the attached housing numbers shrinking. • There has been a decline in row/townhouse attached housing across communities that have routinely seen such activity. HOUSING STARTS THROUGH 2ND QUARTER -- Minnesota’s fire sprinkler F-M METRO: 2003 - 2017 requirement for twin homes 800 (recently lifted) 700 also may have played a part 600 in lower twin home numbers 500 in Moorhead the past two 400 years. • Many homes being 300 constructed now were permitted in 200 2016 when there 100 was a push to pour basements and 0 cap them over the 2003 2007 2012 2017 winter.

Permits Plus

4


Home Builders Association of Fargo-Moorhead F-M Metro Building Permit Report 2017 - Year-to-Date (June) 2013

DILWORTH Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

Permits

12 12 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 13 53

Units

0 0 0

2014 Value Permits

$2,598,000 $2,598,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $188,138 $0 $0 $25,000 $2,811,138

5 5 0 0 0 0 1 25 2 0 11 44

$8,382,100 $7,271,400 $1,110,700 $0 $0 $12,140,000 $26,882,941 $1,741,548 $8,208,304 $0 $83,000 $57,437,893

103 53 26 6 0 1 12 208 44 0 26 394

Units

0 0 0

2015 Value Permits

$1,317,000 $1,317,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,078,000 $306,239 $3,015,000 $0 $58,999 $5,775,238

17 15 2 0 0 0 2 27 3 0 5 54

$18,377,599 $11,244,674 $3,892,925 $3,240,000 $0 $660,000 $6,770,597 $3,356,923 $6,896,314 $0 $107,010 $36,168,443

129 85 44 0 0 10 11 237 46 0 23 456

Units

0 0 0

2016 Value Permits

$4,830,850 $4,350,850 $480,000 $0 $0 $0 $120,000 $193,384 $205,000 $0 $15,689 $5,364,923

7 7 0 0 0 0 0 36 1 0 8 52

$25,494,499 $17,908,499 $7,586,000 $0 $0 $20,226,880 $6,402,388 $2,245,106 $5,546,574 $0 $559,800 $60,475,247

77 51 2 0 12 4 12 279 44 0 21 437

Units

0 0 0

2017 Value Permits

$1,595,900 $1,595,900 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $245,867 $750,000 $0 $45,000 $2,636,767

5 5 0 0 0 0 2 27 2 0 8 44

$15,375,000 $11,325,000 $450,000 $0 $3,600,000 $2,783,755 $11,112,758 $3,615,548 $40,292,906 $0 $287,593 $73,467,560

53 51 2 0 0 0 14 230 49 0 11 357

Units

5-Yr Avg Value

Permits

$721,000 $721,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,456,413 $165,304 $79,385 $0 $0 $4,422,102

9 9 0 0 0 0 1 29 2 0 9 49

$11,074,500 $10,824,500 $250,000 $0 $0 $0 $52,383,427 $2,799,371 $10,971,042 $0 $107,000 $77,335,340

81 54 17 1 2 4 13 225 44 0 21 389

$46,303,091 $42,947,091 $2,896,000 4 $460,000 0 $0 368 $28,415,400 $33,888,590 $10,100,262 $27,811,458 $3,250,239 $11,533,907 $161,302,947

213 171 23 18 0 8 27 559 198 23 168 1,194

$41,209,210 $29,978,210 $11,231,000 $0 $0 $0 $10,124,458 $3,386,173 $3,118,767 $12,337,098 $421,045 $70,596,751

217 160 37 6 0 4 14 199 31 4 20 488

$99,307,801 $84,470,801 $14,377,000 4 $460,000 0 $0 368 $28,415,400 $99,852,888 $16,451,110 $41,980,652 $15,587,337 $12,061,952 $313,657,140

520 394 77 25 2 15 55 1012 275 26 218 2,121

0 0 0

Units

0 0 0

Value

$2,212,550 $2,116,550 $96,000 $0 $0 $0 $930,883 $219,786 $809,877 $0 $28,938 $4,202,034

MOORHEAD Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

41 31 10 0 0 5 16 173 39 0 25 299

0 0 190

24 0 6

0 0 240

0 24 36

0 0 0

5 5 94

$15,740,740 $11,714,815 $2,657,925 $648,000 $720,000 $7,162,127 $20,710,422 $2,751,699 $14,383,028 $0 $228,881 $60,976,897

FARGO Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

224 180 32 12 0 9 26 511 228 22 141 1,161

$42,116,798 173 $35,922,798 137 $4,802,000 20 12 $1,392,000 16 0 $0 0 336 $22,490,999 14 $26,443,546 30 $8,999,222 524 $19,488,443 188 $13,865,084 39 $17,814,706 204 $151,218,798 1,172

$37,951,681 208 $31,357,681 147 $4,374,000 20 16 $2,220,000 41 0 $0 0 526 $43,838,000 2 $197,854,040 33 $8,437,448 549 $69,375,426 198 $76,854,991 21 $13,698,652 142 $448,010,238 1,153

$43,300,625 261 $35,185,805 218 $3,407,490 24 41 $4,707,330 19 0 $0 0 164 $15,579,840 6 $17,251,835 25 $8,216,208 598 $44,849,991 185 $112,475,294 24 $7,573,732 192 $249,247,525 1,291

$65,128,902 197 $56,120,630 175 $3,414,600 18 19 $5,593,672 4 0 $0 0 226 $20,943,900 8 $25,566,323 21 $9,759,179 613 $39,031,520 189 $37,566,436 7 $14,761,684 160 $212,757,944 1,195

18 0 324

$46,960,219 $40,306,801 $3,778,818 $2,874,600 $0 $26,253,628 $60,200,867 $9,102,464 $40,111,368 $48,802,409 $13,076,536 $244,507,490

WEST FARGO Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

210 180 30 0 0 5 11 121 24 0 23 394

0 0 177

$43,027,180 $39,140,180 $3,887,000 $0 $0 $12,010,000 $10,064,000 $1,553,942 $15,120,162 $0 $292,857 $82,068,141

219 167 28 3 0 11 22 165 37 3 28 485

$47,333,744 $41,513,744 $2,940,000 24 $2,880,000 0 $0 384 $28,100,000 $39,498,375 $2,933,181 $4,093,615 $16,241,551 $1,258,400 $139,458,866

257 161 46 18 0 2 10 231 20 6 27 553

$56,001,111 $42,045,111 $6,630,000 50 $7,326,000 0 $0 12 $1,350,000 $21,858,480 $4,010,543 $7,652,100 $8,595,097 $1,942,500 $101,409,831

226 161 34 8 0 0 19 247 44 6 12 554

$53,619,983 $41,012,650 $8,267,333 31 $4,340,000 0 $0 0 $0 $23,699,060 $3,742,101 $4,327,825 $29,629,090 $2,783,718 $117,801,777

175 130 45 0 0 0 7 231 31 4 8 456

0 0 0

21 0 115

$48,238,246 $38,737,979 $6,591,067 $2,909,200 $0 $8,292,000 $21,048,875 $3,125,188 $6,862,494 $13,360,567 $1,339,704 $102,267,073

TOTAL Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

8/1/2017

487 403 72 12 0 19 53 833 291 22 202 1,907

$96,124,078 500 $84,932,378 362 $9,799,700 74 12 $1,392,000 25 0 $0 0 703 $46,640,999 26 $63,390,487 65 $12,482,850 922 $42,816,909 271 $13,865,084 42 $18,215,563 269 $293,535,970 2,095

$104,980,024 611 $85,433,099 408 $11,206,925 112 64 $8,340,000 59 0 $0 0 916 $72,598,000 14 $245,201,012 56 $15,033,791 1044 $83,380,355 267 $93,096,542 27 $15,123,061 197 $629,412,785 2,216

$129,627,085 571 $99,490,265 437 $18,103,490 60 91 $12,033,330 27 0 $0 12 416 $37,156,720 10 $45,632,703 56 $14,665,241 1160 $58,253,665 274 $121,070,391 30 $10,091,721 233 $416,497,526 2,334

$135,719,785 430 $110,054,180 361 $12,131,933 65 50 $9,933,672 4 24 $3,600,000 0 262 $23,727,655 8 $60,378,141 44 $17,362,695 1101 $84,402,251 271 $67,195,526 11 $17,877,995 187 $406,664,048 2,052

No assurance is provided on this report. Permit information reported here may have changed. For the most current permit information, please contact the individual cities.

44 5 533

$113,151,755 $92,876,145 $13,123,810 $6,431,800 $720,000 $41,707,755 $102,891,046 $15,199,137 $62,166,766 $62,162,976 $14,674,058 $411,953,494


Home Builders Association of Fargo-Moorhead Outlying Communities Building Permit Report 2017 - Year-to-Date (June) 2016 BARNESVILLE, MN Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

Permits

Units

2017 $304,000 $304,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $96,000 $207,948 $7,545 $0 $12,508 $628,001

2 2 0 0 0 0 1 10 1 2 0 16

$459,000 $459,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $140,434 $198,116 $95,000 $23,359,647 $0 $24,252,197

KINDRED, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 6

$180,000 $180,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,800 $0 $0 $190,600 $372,400

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 4

$220,000 $220,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $10,000 $0 $0 $137,000 $367,000

MAPLETON, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

15 9 6 0 0 0 1 9 1 0 0 26

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $204,036 $75,000 $0 $0 $279,036

18 17 1 0 0 0 2 13 5 0 16 54

$6,036,435 $5,636,435 $400,000 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $465,000 $343,031 $733,641 $0 $175,300 $7,753,407

OXBOW, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

6 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 7

TOTAL Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

33 27 6 0 0 0 4 72 9 1 28 147

6 6 0 0 0 0 0 27 5 0 18 56

$1,575,000 $1,575,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 $373,800 $60,500 $0 $127,591 $2,136,891

1 1 0 0 0 0 1 24 2 0 10 38

CASSELTON, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

1 1 0 0 0 0 1 22 2 1 3 30

$311,000 $311,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $50,000 $273,715 $52,000 $1,470,600 $52,000 $2,209,315

HARWOOD, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 5

HORACE, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 5

7/21/2017

0 0 0

0 0 0

2016 HAWLEY, MN Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total

Value Permits

Units

0 0 0

0 0 0

Value

Permits

Units

3 3 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 4 12

No assurance is provided on this report. Permit information reported here may have changed. For the most current permit information, please contact the individual cities.

2017 Value Permits

$800,000 $800,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $615,333 $11,100 $0 $0 $20,900 $1,447,333

2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 13

$167,000 $167,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $458,200 $0 $0 $0 $625,200

4 4 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 10

$2,926,743 $2,245,743 $681,000 $0 $0 $0 $650,000 $102,546 $30,670 $0 $0 $3,709,959

24 20 4 0 0 0 0 11 2 0 0 37

$4,622,000 $4,622,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,300,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,922,000

10 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 11

$10,581,743 $9,900,743 $681,000 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $2,615,333 $1,425,197 $218,170 $1,470,600 $391,091 $16,702,134

62 57 5 0 0 0 6 63 11 2 39 183

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

Units

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

Value

$540,000 $540,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,781,200 $2,321,200

$1,240,000 $1,240,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $345,000 $9,798 $15,000 $0 $0 $1,609,798

$6,045,480 $5,187,480 $858,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $63,650 $4,000 $0 $0 $6,113,130

$8,855,303 $8,855,303 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $352,000 $0 $0 $0 $9,207,303

$23,700,218 $22,442,218 $1,258,000 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $1,046,434 $1,184,543 $855,186 $23,359,647 $2,106,008 $52,252,036

Permits Plus 2017 Issue 2  

Welcome to the August issue of Permits Plus, sharing second-quarter building permit numbers for Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead and West Fargo, as...

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