MH Collective - Victoria Market Quarterly Update - 1st Quarter 2022

VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE

1st Quarter

2022

MICHELE HOLMES COLLECTIVE • WWW.MHCOLLECTIVE.COM • 250.656.0911

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1st Quarter 2022 The first quarter of 2022 has seen our Greater Victoria Area Real Estate market begin to turn a corner. With the 2021 market being best described as a downward spiral with respect to the listing inventory. The distinct lack of inventory through the latter half of 2021 has seen demand on new listings skyrocket, and benchmark prices continuously increase.

Sales numbers through Q1-2022 have experienced a steady increase through January, February, and March with 474, 718, and 833 sales respectively for a total of 2,025 sales. This compared to only 1,836 sales in Q42021 which also had monthly sales numbers decline from October through December.

Q1-2022 has seen a significant turn for new listing inventory. Q4-2021 only saw 1,961 new listings come to market. This compared to 2,841 new listings this past quarter. This is welcome news for the significant pool of buyers whom have been struggling with low inventories; an absence of quality homes; multiple offer competitions, and above asking price sales.

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME (TOTAL VALUE IN BILLIONS OF YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS) HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME $10

$9

WWW.MHCOLLECTIVE.COM

1st Quarter

2022

$8

$7

$6

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$5

$4

$3

$2

$1

$0

Absorption Rate ACTIVE LISTINGS

6

5.3

5.1

5

4500

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.7

4.6

4.0

3.9

4.3 4.0

3500

3.7

3.5

3

2.8

3000

2.2

1.8

1.6

Oct-2019

Jun-2019

1.1

Aug-2019

Jun-2018

Apr-2018

Feb-2018

Oct-2017

Apr-2017

Feb-2017

Oct-2016

Dec-2016

Jun-2016

Aug-2016

Apr-2016

2018

2019

December

November

October

2022

September

2021

2017 August

July

2020

2016

June

May

April

March

February

2019

Feb-2016

Oct-2015

2015

1.2

Dec-2019

1.3

Apr-2019

1.4

Feb-2019

1.3

Oct-2018

1.3

1.3

Dec-2015

Jun-2015

Aug-2015

Apr-2015

Feb-2015

Oct-2014

2014

Dec-2014

Jun-2014

Feb-2014

Oct-2013

1.3

1.6 Dec-2013

Jun-2013

Apr-2013

Dec-2012

2013

January

0

Feb-2013

1.4

1

1000

1.6

Aug-2013

1500

1.4

2.0

Dec-2018

1.5

2000

Aug-2018

1.9

Aug-2014

2

2.4

Apr-2014

2500

4.2

4.0

Dec-2017

4

5.2

Jun-2017

Months of Inventory

5000

4000

5.6

4.7

Aug-2017

5500

Greater Victoria Area - (2019-2022)

5.7

Total historical annual sales volume remained at similar levels to last year with already approximately 2.1 Billion in sales volume for Q1-2022.

Last year, 2021 ended with an all-time low absorption rate of only 1.1 months. 2022 has started to see that number rebound somewhat with an increase to 1.6 months of inventory. While this is welcome news for Buyers, we are still far from what is considered a balanced market of between 5 & 6 months of inventory. Despite the increasing inventory, we are still a long way from satisfying the needs of the existing buyer pool.

This past quarter benchmark prices remain very strong for a single family home throughout the Greater Victoria Area during the fourth quarter. Q1 had an average increase of 7% across the VREB market area. The Saanich Peninsula saw an 8.9% increase, Victoria’s core area saw 7.8% and the Westshore experienced a 5.3% increase.

The MLS Home Price Index Benchmark price for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was a staggering $1,141,300 at the

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q4-2021 to Q1-2022 — Greater Victoria Area)

VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL

CORE SFD-ALL

WESTSHORE SFD-ALL

PENINSULA SFD-ALL

BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices $1,141,300

Townhouse Benchmark Prices $763,300

Condominium Benchmark Prices $631,100

end of Q1-2022. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $1,233,700 at the end of Q1. The benchmark was $1,001,400 in Westshore, and $1,233,500 on the Peninsula. At the time of writing, there were 295 single family homes available for sale in the Victoria Area. Of those, only 7 are priced below 800 thousand, and 43 are below 1 million.

SALES OVER LIST PRICE

OVER LIST PRICE

AT LIST PRICE

BELOW LIST PRICE

In Q1 of this year, 70% of homes sold were above their MLS listed price, and a further 10% sold at their list price. 8 out of 10 of the reported MLS sales were at, or above, their list price. The data sources used to craft these statistics do not allow us to track how many of these sales were multiple offer competitions; however, it is certain that the majority of these sales were the result of multiple buyers submitting competing bids.

This year, the BC Government, by recommendation of the BC Financial Services Authority will be introducing legislation that requires a “cooling off period” for resale properties. This legislation is aimed to better protect buyers in this heated market. This is a concerning move to our industry as we are doubtful it will achieve its aims. Its addition will create even more risk and uncertainty for sellers, and it will do nothing to alleviate the single largest problem with Real Estate in British Columbia, the shortage of available housing.

Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Active Listings

Number of Sales

Market demand for property below 3 million has remained strong in the Greater Victoria Area into 2022. At the end of Q1, the average absorption rate of property under 3 million dollars was just under one month of supply.

Our luxury market, above 3 million, despite the much higher absorption rate, remains strong. At the end of Q4-2021 the absorption rate for property above 3 million was 6.21 months. This rate has dropped over the last three months to 5.08 months of inventory indicating increasing demand for such luxury offerings.

Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range March 2022

6

5.08 Months of Inventory

5

4

3

2.25 2

1

0.75

0.81 0.76

1.11 0.22

0

Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached March 2022

2.50

2.00

Months of Inventory

2.00

2.00

1.83 1.67 1.42

1.50

1.24

1.00

1.22

1.16

1.29

1.00 0.97 1.03

1.00 0.77

0.50

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums

March 2022

March 2022

2.50

4.00

2.18

3.50

2.00

2.50

2.00

1.64

1.57

1.50

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

1.09

0.92

0.78 0.39

0.80

0.69

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

2.00

3.00

1.50

1.50

1.29 1.13 1.00

1.02 0.90

0.82 0.65

0.57

0.50

0.45

0.26

0.00

0.00

NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS

ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range

Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range March 2022

March 2022

4

2

3.50 3.00

2

1.05

1.29

Months of Inventory

1.50

1.57

1

NO SALES

NO ACTIVE

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

1.13 1

0.60

0.54

0 Under $600K

0.40

0.55

0.19

LISTINGS PAST 3 0.00 0.00 MONTHS $1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

2022’s first quarter has proved nothing short of a remarkable start to the year. The local Victoria Area market remains a very lucrative opportunity for Sellers. However, we are beginning to see some signs of this frantic pace beginning slowing down.

Now more than ever, if you are considering selling and are interested in knowing what your home might be worth, please get in touch for a complimentary home evaluation.

0

Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range March 2022

8

7.33

7

6

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

3

5

4

3

1.50

2

1

0

0.75 0.68

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

0.00 Under $600K

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

1.17 0.38 $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

March 2022

March 2022

5

6.60

7

3.90

4

6

3.00

3

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

4

3 2 2

5

4

3.00

3

2

1.03

1 1 0

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

0.41 0.52

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES

1

0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

0 $1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS

NO ACTIVE LISTINGS

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

1.34 0.65

OR SALES 0.00 0.00 $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

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250-656-0911 • MHCOLLECTIVE@HOLMESREALTY.COM HOLMES REALTY LTD • 2481 BEACON AVENUE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

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