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VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2018 FOURTH QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE HOLMES • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911


2018 FOURTH QUARTER The final quarter of 2018 continued to see our market gradually slow down. 2018 was a year of change for our local real estate market. With a decline in purchasing power, the result of the new mortgage stress test, and rising interest rates, affordability remains a key issue in the Greater Victoria Area. 2018 brought us the foreign buyer tax, and the new speculation tax. Both have had a significant impact on our luxury market. Throughout 2018 he have seen the absorption rates on $2M+ property rise into the double digits of months of available inventory. While it’s easy to cast a negative light on the 2018 market for not having continued the record setting growth we experienced in 2016 and early 2017, our market is gradually moving towards a balanced condition. With a healthy BC economy, and a record number of housing starts, we hope to see continued stability throughout 2019. There were a total of 1,988 active listings at the end of the quarter. This constitutes a 43% increase in our inventory from this same period in 2017. Third quarter sales dropped from 462 at the end of Q4 in 2017 to 375 at the end of Q4 this year, a near 18% decline.

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME

$7

MICHELE HOLMES & DEBRA BARTLETT

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

$5

$4

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$6

$3

$2

$1

Fourth Quarter

2018

$0


ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

Oct-2018

Dec-2018

Jun-2018

Aug-2018

Apr-2018

2017

Feb-2018

Oct-2017

Dec-2017

Jun-2017

Aug-2017

Apr-2017

2016

Feb-2017

Oct-2016

Dec-2016

Jun-2016

Aug-2016

Apr-2016

2015

Feb-2016

Oct-2015

Dec-2015

Jun-2015

Aug-2015

2014

Apr-2015

Feb-2015

Oct-2014

Dec-2014

Jun-2014

Aug-2014

2013

Apr-2014

Feb-2014

Oct-2013

Dec-2013

Jun-2013

Aug-2013

2011 2012

Apr-2013

Feb-2013

Oct-2012

Dec-2012

Jun-2012

Aug-2012

Apr-2012

Feb-2012

1000

Dec-2011

1500

2018

The total sales volume at the end of Q4 was just under 5 billion dollars of real estate transactions, making 2018 the third highest performing year of real estate in our market’s history based on value. While 2018 was a year of buyers taking a wait-and-see approach, it should be noted that overall, well priced homes in good condition remain highly desirable and in high demand in the sub 800K region. The market wide competitiveness of past years was absent in 2018, yet multiple offers remain commonplace on highly desirable inventory.


The benchmark price for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area dropped throughout the final quarter of 2018; increased downward pressure on pricing has become apparent as we enter 2019. Townhouses and Condominiums have not seen the same decrease, instead pricing has plateaued at their price points of $584K and $495K respectively.

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q3-2018 to Q4-2018 — Greater Victoria Area)


PRICE INCREASES Single Family Benchmark Prices

Townhouse Benchmark Prices

Condominium Benchmark Prices

Through Q4, the most sought-after price range for single family homes remained well established in the 600K to 800K ranges. This was the case for Victoria Core, Saanich and the Peninsula throughout 2019. Sooke, and Langford were the outliers with offering more affordability priced inventory with the 450K to 650K price range being most active.


SALES OVER LIST PRICE VICTORIA CORE

In the fourth quarter of 2018, the presence of sales over list price remained well established across all three Greater Victoria Regions with at least a minimum 10% of total sales being recorded above the property’s list price. Additionally, sales at exactly list price were remained commonplace through the quarter. In Westshore, nearly one out of five sales was at list price for example. On the Saanich Peninsula, nearly one out of seven sales was at list price.

PENINSULA

WESTSHORE


The absorption rate rose through the fourth quarter of 2018 but has dropped back to 4.1 months of available inventory. Traditionally, when the absorption rates are less than five months, it is considered a Seller’s Market. This is an aggregated rate covering all market areas and price ranges. When you examine absorption rates individually by neighbourhood or price range, you see the variability that exists in our micro-markets based on the style and location of property.

Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area - (2015-2018)

Months of Inventory

8 7 7.2

6

7.3

7.1 6.4

6.6

5.6

5

4.5 3.9

4.1

2

4.0

3.9

3.4

2.5

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.8 3.3

2.6 2.3

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.2

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.6 2.1

2.3

2.4

3.8

2.3 2.1

2.2

2.0

2.1

2.0

December

November

October

2018

1.9

September

2017

1.9

August

July

2016

June

May

April

March

February

January

2015

4.0

2.5 2.0

1

4.3

3.7

4 3

5.0


ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached December 2018

8.00

7.14

Months of Inventory

7.00

6.71

6.00

5.00

5.00

4.00

5.06

3.71 3.35

3.00

2.00

2.61

2.58

2.50

2.03

1.91

2.26

2.16 1.63

0.83

1.00

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums December 2018

December 2018

42.00

7.00

35.00

5.00

4.33 4.00

3.78

3.00

2.75 2.10

2.18

2.62

2.33 2.00

2.00

1.55

2.10

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

30.00

30.00

6.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

13.13 10.00

10.00

6.25 1.00

0.97

5.00

3.75 1.88

0.00

0.00

1.88

3.50

2.69 1.20

5.00

5.56 2.77


ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range

Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2018

December 2018

15.00

16 15

11

9

13

Months of Inventory

12

Months of Inventory

10.00

10

14

11 10 9 8 7 6

4.26

5 4

2.07

3 2

2.95

6 5 4 3

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

0

Over $2M

Under $600K

As mentioned, the luxury market continued

erty remained in some demand, the majority

16

12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5

3.33

2 0

Under $600K

7

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

8

6 5 4

2.78

2

0.00 $600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

December 2018

8.64

0.00

$600K to $800K

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

10

Under $600K

1.65

1

December 2018

0

3.14

1.86

3

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

1

18.00

13

4

ue of your home, please feel free to call!

2.33

Over $2M

14

any questions about our market or the val-

3

$1M to $2M

15

peaceful and prosperous 2019,; if you have

9

$800K to $1M

17

Months of Inventory

As the new year begins, we wish you a

$600K to $800K

December 2018

18

days-on-market being the norm.

1.00

19

2018. While truly exceptional high-end prop-

mains firmly in a buyers market with lengthy

1.03

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range

to soften throughout the fourth quarter of

of inventory over the 1.3M price point re-

3.43

3.00

1

0 Under $600K

7

2

0.83

1

8

Over $2M

27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

25.00

14.29

3.43

3.20

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

3.59

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M


Michele Holmes & Debra Bartlett

IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask us about our award winning systems. Deanna

Clayton

David

WE’D LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU!

250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

This publication is protected by international copyright © 2018 Holmes Realty Ltd.

Victoria Market Quarterly Update - 2018 Q4 - Michele Holmes  

Presented by Michele Holmes and Debra Bartlett www.holmesrealty.com michelesteam@holmesrealty.com 1-877-656-0911

Victoria Market Quarterly Update - 2018 Q4 - Michele Holmes  

Presented by Michele Holmes and Debra Bartlett www.holmesrealty.com michelesteam@holmesrealty.com 1-877-656-0911