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VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2019 SECOND QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE HOLMES • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911


2019 SECOND QUARTER The second quarter of 2019 was one of transition.

A

transition of both listing inventory and sales volume. The spring real estate market here in the Capital historically, is punctuated by growth of inventory. This year was no different, we saw our inventory transition from 2,751 listings to 3,040 active listings. There were 1,392 new listings entered onto our MLS system in April of this year, this peaked with 1,613 new listings May. Finally, June ended the quarter with the number of new listings dropping to only 1,221. Sales numbers followed a similar trajectory; the quarter opened with 696 sales in April, a peak of 848 in May, and then dropping to 740 in June. The mid-year point is typically where our sales numbers begin to taper-off, so this drop in numbers late in the quarter is not unexpected. The total sales volume at the end of Q2-2019 was approximately 2.5 billion dollars, almost exactly half of 2018’s total annual volume.

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME

$7

MICHELE HOLMES & DEBRA BARTLETT

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

$5

$4

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$6

$3

$2

$1

Second Quarter

2019

$0


ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

Jun-2019

Apr-2019

Feb-2019

Oct-2018

Dec-2018

Jun-2018

Aug-2018

Apr-2018

2017

Feb-2018

Oct-2017

Dec-2017

Jun-2017

Aug-2017

2016

Apr-2017

Feb-2017

Oct-2016

Dec-2016

Jun-2016

Aug-2016

2015

Apr-2016

Feb-2016

Oct-2015

Dec-2015

Jun-2015

Aug-2015

2014

Apr-2015

Feb-2015

Oct-2014

Dec-2014

Jun-2014

Aug-2014

2013

Apr-2014

Feb-2014

Oct-2013

Dec-2013

Jun-2013

Aug-2013

2012

Apr-2013

Feb-2013

Oct-2012

Dec-2012

Jun-2012

1000

Aug-2012

1500

2018 2019

The second quarter continued to see increased pressure on the top end of the market. There remains a significant disparity in listing inventory versus demand in the high-end and luxury segment. At the end of Q2 there were approximately 270 active listings available over 1.5 Million dollars. With an average of only 14 sales in this range per month, there is roughly 19 months of inventory available. Over the 2 Million price point, there are 154 active listings available, and an average of only five sales per month. In the 2 Million plus range, there are currently approximate 29 months of inventory.


Benchmark prices for a single family home have increased slightly throughout the second quarter of 2019. The benchmark price for a home rose from $736,000 to $754,200 through Q2-2019.

When

compared to the same quarter last year however, the benchmark has dropped. At the end of Q2-2018, was $10,000 higher than the current year with $764,200.

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q2-2018 to Q2-2019 — Greater Victoria Area)

VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL

CORE SFD-ALL

WESTSHORE SFD-ALL

PENINSULA SFD-ALL


PRICE INCREASES Single Family Benchmark Prices

Townhouse Benchmark Prices

Condominium Benchmark Prices

As has been the case over the last several months, the 500K to 800K price range for single family homes is the single most sought-after price point. With the new mortgage qualification test, the average double income buyers in the Greater Victoria Area will qualify in this range leading to highest number of competing buyers.


SALES OVER LIST PRICE

OVER LIST PRICE

AT LIST PRICE

BELOW LIST PRICE

Competing multiple offer scenarios have increased this quarter. Additionally, sales at, and above the list price have also increased. 17% of Single Family Detached sales this quarter were over list price. This is up from 14% last quarter. 14% of sales were at list price, compared to only 11% in Q1. 75% of sales in Q1 were under the list price, this quarter, sales below list price dropped to 69%


During Q2, 65% of the homes sold in the Greater Victoria Area sold above their BCA assessed values. This is not a significant difference over Q1 of this year.


The second quarter has seen the absorption rate steadily decrease from nearly five months of inventory down to only four. With the rate under five months, overall, we are in a Seller’s Market. Between five and six months of inventory is a balanced market, and over six is a buyer’s market. This represents an overall averaged rate across all property types and price ranges. Depending on the price range, and the location, the absorption rate and market type can vary dramatically.

Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area - (2016-2019)

Months of Inventory

8 7 5.7

6 5.1

5.3 4.7

5 3.9

4.1

2

4.0

4.1

3.7

4 3

4.1 3.4

2.5

2.3

2.7

3.1 3.3

2.4

2.5

3.9 2.6

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.3 2.1

2.5 2.2

2.0

2.1

2.0

December

November

October

2019

1.9

September

2018

1.9

August

July

2017

June

May

April

March

February

January

2016

4.1

3.8

2.0

1

4.3

3.6 4.0

2.3 2.5

4.2


ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached June 2019

9.00

7.85

Months of Inventory

8.00

7.29

7.00

7.00

6.00

5.52

5.00

4.00

3.00

3.66 3.29

3.00

3.00

3.10 2.75

2.45

2.00

1.58

2.33

1.71

0.75

1.00

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums June 2019

June 2019

27.00

16.00

15.00

14.00 14.00

Months of Inventory

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.14 4.00

3.05 2.00

0.00

3.00

3.18

2.93

2.04 1.33

3.38

3.00

3.30

3.53

Months of Inventory

12.00

12.00

12.00

10.00

8.00

5.65

6.00

5.00 4.25 4.00

3.00 2.00

0.00

1.65

3.33

2.77

2.33

2.75

2.54

4.60 3.67


ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range

Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range June 2019

June 2019

40

5

4.45

34.50

35

4

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

30

25

20

15

8.31

10

2.25 2

1 5

0.75

2.05 $600K to $800K

0.92

2.47

0 Under $600K

2.88

3

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

0

Over $2M

0.00 Insufficient Sales Data

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range June 2019

While there remains a health amount of ac-

19.20

20

tivity and interest in the under 800K market continue to see significant listing competition and slower sales. We hope you have a wonderful summer. Hopefully the warmer weather will be here

Months of Inventory

range, the high-end and luxury markets are

10

4.32 1.98

soon! 0

0.00 Under $600K

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

June 2019

10.71

11

6.00

6

10

5.25 Months of Inventory

9

Months of Inventory

$800K to $1M

7

12

8 7 6

4.31

5 4

3.00

3 2

0

$600K to $800K

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

June 2019

1

1.47

Insufficient Sales Data

5

4

0.00

0.00

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

Insufficient Sales Data

2.68

3

2

1 Insufficient Sales Data

4.85

0.67

0 $800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M


Michele Holmes & Debra Bartlett

IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask us about our award winning systems. Erin

Deanna

Clayton

David

WE’D LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU!

250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

This publication is protected by international copyright © 2018 Holmes Realty Ltd.

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Holmes Realty Quarterly Update Q2 - 2019  

Presented by Michele Holmes & Debra Bartlett Holmes Realty Ltd.

Holmes Realty Quarterly Update Q2 - 2019  

Presented by Michele Holmes & Debra Bartlett Holmes Realty Ltd.