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VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2019 FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW HOLMES REALTY • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911


Š 2019, Holmes Realty Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this work covered by the publisher’s copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means (including but not limited to graphic, electronic or mechanical) without the written permission of the publisher.


2019 FIRST QUARTER With the first quarter of 2019 already behind us, we have started to experience Victoria’s spring market in full force. As the flowers start to bloom and weather begins to change for the better, historically, our inventory begins to grow. At the end of March, there were some 2,435 active MLS listings for sale. This represents an astonishing 40% increase in listing inventory over this same quarter 2018. This added inventory is a welcome change for buyers, who over the last two years have been faced with a very challenging Seller’s Market. With this shift we are seeing increasing reluctance to pricing in the high-end bracket of Greater Victoria property. This increased pressure on the top end of the market has had an impact on the total volume figures compared to last year. 2019’s annual sales volume at the end of Q1 was 908 million dollars of real estate transacted. This is down from 1.133 billion during the same period in 2018, a 225 million dollar difference.

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME

$7

$6

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

$5

$4

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$3

$2

$1

First Quarter

2019

$0


ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

Jan-2019

Mar-2019

Nov-2018

Jul-2018

Sep-2018

May-2018

Jan-2018

Mar-2018

2017

Nov-2017

Jul-2017

Sep-2017

May-2017

Jan-2017

2016

Mar-2017

Nov-2016

Jul-2016

Sep-2016

May-2016

Jan-2016

2015

Mar-2016

Nov-2015

Jul-2015

Sep-2015

May-2015

Jan-2015

2014

Mar-2015

Nov-2014

Jul-2014

Sep-2014

May-2014

Jan-2014

2013

Mar-2014

Nov-2013

Jul-2013

Sep-2013

May-2013

Jan-2013

2012

Mar-2013

Nov-2012

Jul-2012

Sep-2012

Mar-2012

1000

May-2012

1500

2018 2019

Benchmark prices for a single family home have dropped throughout the first quarter of 2019. The benchmark price for a home at the beginning of the year was $751,700. This was down to $741,000 at the time of writing representing a 1.43% drop. While this correction is minor, it is indicative of the shift we are seeing towards a buyer’s market. Increased hesitation to pricing and a “wait-and-see” attitude amongst buyers is very common place.


Q1 continued to see the 600K to 800K price range for single family homes being the most sought-after property type. Homes in this price range remain extremely popular, particularly when well looked after and well staged.

The western communities remained most popular with

first time home buyers offering the largest inventory priced under the 600K range.

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q4-2018 to Q1-2019 — Greater Victoria Area)


PRICE INCREASES Single Family Benchmark Prices

Townhouse Benchmark Prices

Condominium Benchmark Prices

While single family property experienced a minor decline in benchmark prices through the quarter, town-homes saw an increase in prices during the first quarter. Condominium pricing has remained consistently stable over the last year. Additionally, the condominium market has picked up activity through the first quarter as we noticed a marked increase in offers.


SALES OVER LIST PRICE

Competing multiple offer scenarios have been on the decline for some time in the Greater Victoria Area. Further indication of the transition towards a buyer’s market as we recorded three quarters of the sales during Q1 as being below the asking price, 11% at exactly the list price, and only 14% above list.


During this past quarter, we fielded many questions from the public concerning why their assessed values were so much higher than the selling price of homes in their neighbourhoods. During Q1, more than 60% of the homes sold in the Greater Victoriia Area, sold below their BCA assessed values. This is a substantial percentage. In Sidney since January 1st, 2019 there have been 12 single family homes sales. Only 3 sold above their assessed value while the other 9 were under. In North Saanich there have been 25 representative single family home sales. Out of the 25, 14 sold over, and 11 sold under their assessed value.


The absorption rate has varied through the first quarter of 2019 around five and a half months of inventory. When the absorption rate is less than five months, it is generally considered a seller’s market. Between five and six months of inventory is a balanced market, and over six is a buyer’s market.

When you examine absorption rates

individually by neighbourhood or price range, you see the variability that exists in our micro-markets based on the style and location of property.

Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area - (2016-2019)

Months of Inventory

8 7 5.7

6 5.1

5.3

5 3.9

4.1

3 2

3.8

3.7

4

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.4

2.5

2.3

2.7

3.3

4.1

3.6

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.3 2.1

2.2

2.0

2.1

2.0

December

November

October

2019

1.9

September

2018

1.9

August

July

2017

June

May

April

March

February

January

2016

2.4

2.5 2.0

1

4.3

3.1 2.3

2.5

4.2


ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached March 2019

14.00

12.14

Months of Inventory

12.00

10.00

8.00

6.86

6.51 5.70

6.00

5.50

5.14

5.00

4.62

4.44

3.94

4.00

5.08

3.87

3.33 2.67

2.59 2.00

0.00

Absorption Rates - Condominiums

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

March 2019

March 2019

16.00

12.00

14.00

14.00

10.00

10.00

8.00

7.50 7.00

6.67 5.94

6.00

5.00

4.79 4.33

4.00

3.75

3.42

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

9.23 12.00

10.00

8.00

5.00 4.00

2.16 2.00

0.00

1.56

5.77

5.71

6.00

3.80

4.26 3.66

4.12

3.64

3.42 2.63

2.00

0.00

3.67


ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range

Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range March 2019

March 2019

16.88

18

17

15

16

14

15

13

14

12 11 10 9 8

6.54

7 6

4.63

5 4 2

Under $600K

11 10 9 8 7

6.25

5

1 $600K to $800K

5.26

6

2.88

2

Insufficient Sales Data

0

12

3

0.00

1

13

4

1.92

3

17.50

18

16

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

17

19

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

0

Over $2M

0.00 Insufficient Sales Data

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range

The slowing market and rising inventory

March 2019

37.50

40

continued to effect the Luxury segment most significantly. The very high end in all inventory and in some areas well over 30 months. With the warmer weather on it’s way we look

30

Months of Inventory

locales is offering more than 15 months of

20

8.54

10

forward to a wonderful spring and summer

2.00

here in the Capital.

0

Under $600K

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

15.56

15 14

15

13

Months of Inventory

14

Months of Inventory

$800K to $1M

16

16

13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6

4.22

5 4

12 11 10 9

7 6

2

0.00

0.00 $600K to $800K

4.07

5

3

2

Under $600K

7.63

8

4

2.73

3

0

$600K to $800K

17

17

1

2.57

March 2019

17.78

18

2.54

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

March 2019

19

Over $2M

1.60 0.00

1 0 $800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M


IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market. WE’D LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU! Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L 1X9

250-656-0911 ReachUs@HolmesRealty.com WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

This publication is protected by international copyright © 2018 Holmes Realty Ltd.

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Victoria Quarterly Market Update - Q1 2019  

Presented by Holmes Realty Ltd. www.HolmesRealty.com

Victoria Quarterly Market Update - Q1 2019  

Presented by Holmes Realty Ltd. www.HolmesRealty.com