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VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2017 THIRD QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE HOLMES • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911


2017 THIRD QUARTER With the third quarter of 2017 behind us, the Victoria Market continues to cool from the brisk early year market. For the first time since 2015 the Home Price Index (HPI) on single family homes in the Greater Victoria Area has dropped. While our fall market historically slows during the cooler months, other factors such as speculation regarding the new NDP government’s housing policies, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate increases and the ebb and flow of the foreign buyer market are certainly actively influencing Victoria’s market. During the third quarter there were a total of 3,211 new listings to our MLS service, a value that is only some eleven listings off of the past 5 year average of Q3 new listings. With that in mind our total active listings in Q3 paints a very different picture. The Q3 average active listing count for the past 5 years was 10,057 listings; however this past quarter’s total number of active listings was only 5,814. These figures continue to demonstrate a market with limited inventory and pressure on buyers. Total sales volume this past quarter reached approximately 4.6 Billion in the Greater Victoria Area in Q3. HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME $7

MICHELE HOLMES

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

$6

$5

$4

BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

$3

$2

Third Quarter

2017

$1

$0


ACTIVE LISTINGS 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

Jul-2017

Sep-2017

May-2017

Jan-2017

Mar-2017

2016

Nov-2016

Jul-2016

Sep-2016

May-2016

Jan-2016

Mar-2016

2015

Nov-2015

Jul-2015

Sep-2015

May-2015

Jan-2015

Mar-2015

2014

Nov-2014

Jul-2014

Sep-2014

May-2014

Jan-2014

Mar-2014

2013

Nov-2013

Jul-2013

Sep-2013

May-2013

Jan-2013

Mar-2013

2012

Nov-2012

Jul-2012

Sep-2012

May-2012

Jan-2012

Mar-2012

2011

Nov-2011

Jul-2011

Sep-2011

May-2011

Jan-2011

1000

Mar-2011

1500

2017

Even though we have seen a gradual increase throughout 2017, we are still well below the typical inventory levels Victoria has seen from 2011 through 2015. The shortage of inventory remains apparent. While there was a slight softening on prices this past quarter, buyer’s remain at the mercy of very limited selection of property.


As mentioned before, the HPI Benchmark price dropped overall in Victoria from the previous month. When we look at the performance of the different market areas in the Greater Victoria Area, we see some variability. While benchmarks are down slightly in the Core area, we are still seeing slight gains in Westshore, on the Saanich Peninsula and on the Gulf Islands. The benchmark price for a Single Family Detached home in the Greater Victoria Area is now $692,800.

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q2 to Q3 — Greater Victoria Area)


PRICE INCREASES Single Family Benchmark Prices $692,800

Townhouse Benchmark Prices $555,200

Condominium Benchmark Prices $436,800

Townhouses and condominiums saw gains over the third quarter of 2017 however both are showing signs of softening prices when compared to previous quarters.


SALES OVER LIST PRICE

While overall pricing appears to be softening this past quarter, a significant number of single family detached sales in each of the three principal market areas remained at, or above the list price. In Victoria Core, 48% of sales in Q3 were either at, or over the list price. In Westshore, 46% percent of Q3 sales were at, or above the list price. On the peninsula, 43% of Q3 sales were at or above the list price When compared to Q2, the peninsula and Westshore communities have seen little change with respect to at and over list sales; however, Victoria Core has seen a 6% drop in such sales compared to Q2.


The third quarter of 2017 has seen a very slight rise in absorption rates here in the Greater Victoria Area ending the quarter with 2.3 months of available inventory.

Even with increasing

inventory these past months, there remains a significant pool of buyers eagerly awaiting “The Right One” coming to market. Until this pool of buyers dwindles, we will continue to see low absorption rates and a “Seller’s Market”.

Absorption Rates Rate Absorption Greater Victoria Area - (2014-2017)

10

8

9.2

7.9

8.3

7 7.2

6

9.6

9.3

9.0

7.3

7.4

7.1

6.6

6.4

6.6

5 4.1

4

6.0

5.8

5.0

3.7

4.5

3.3

4.3

2.6

3

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.0

November

December

July

June

May

April

March

February

2015

2016

3.8

1.9

2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.3

2014

4.0

October

2.0

4.0

September

2.2

January

1

6.1

5.6 3.9

2

6.5

August

Months of Inventory

9

2017


ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached September 2017

5.00

4.50

4.34

Months of Inventory

4.00

3.50

3.27

3.00

3.14

2.72

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.84

1.71

1.76

1.82 1.58

1.54

1.37

1.36

1.93 1.68

1.00

0.40

0.50

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums

September 2017

September 2017

4.50

25.00

4.00

21.00

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

3.00 1.20 0.00

1.48

1.58

1.38 0.42

1.48

2.40 1.45

4.29

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

2.00

1.80 1.50

1.50

1.00

1.28 0.83

0.67

0.80

1.11 0.86

0.88

0.63

0.50

1.37

1.01 0.00

0.00


ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range

Victoria South (James Bay, Fairfield, Rockland) Absorption Rates by Price Range

September 2017

September 2017

10

4

9.00

9

3.33

8

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

3 7 6 5 4

2.75

3

2

1.47

1.38

1.40

Under $800K

$800K to $1M

1

1.64

2

1.00

1

0.48

0

0 Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

The high-end luxury segment of our mar-

September 2017

42.00

20 19

sub $1M segments. Q3 continued to show

18

extremly high demand for well priced prop-

15

17 16

Months of Inventory

$800K price ranges.

Over $2M

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

kets remains slower when compared to the

erty in good condition through the $500K to

$1M to $2M

As the summer wraps up and cooler weath-

14 13 12 11 10 9

7.76

8 7 6 5 4

2.69

3

er is upon us, we hope you have a pleasant

2 1

0.86

1.22 NO SALES

0

fall and holiday season!

Under $600K

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

September 2017

September 2017

8

11

7.58 9.86

10

7

6

8

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

9

7 6 5 4 3

3 2.51

2.00

1

1.22 0.90

1 0

4

2

2.35

2

5

NO SALES Under $600K

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M

0

0.75

0.00

0.00

Under $600K

$600K to $800K

NO SALES

$800K to $1M

$1M to $2M

Over $2M


It’s easy to be intimidated by Victoria’s hot market! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask us about our strategies designed to protect sellers in a market with nowhere to go. We’d love to hear from you! MICHELE

Deanna

Clayton

Debra

Mariann

Chauncey

Irene

MICHELE HOLMES TEAM

Lisa

250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

This publication is protected by international copyright © 2017 Holmes Realty Ltd.


Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L1X9 Canada Phone: 250-656-0911 Fax: 250-656-2435 Toll Free: 1-877-656-0911 michelesteam@holmesrealty.com www.HolmesRealty.com

The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy. This publication is protected by international copyright Š 2017 Holmes Realty Ltd.

Victoria Market Quarterly Update - Q3 2017  
Victoria Market Quarterly Update - Q3 2017  

Presented By Michele Holmes Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L1X9 michelesteam@holmesrealty.com 1-877-656-0911