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MARKET UPDATE

DECEMBER

2016

I

nventory in the Greater Victoria Area remains incredibly low with only 1,815 active listings as of the end of November, some 38% fewer than November 2015. The housing market remains strong despite the challenges buyers are facing. Last month, there were 599 MLS property sales, representing the highest November sales numbers since 2009. Data from October indicates a 6.3% increase in foreign buyers activity here in Greater Victoria. While this inflow of foreign money is certainly not to be ignored, the true driving force behind the pricing pressure is the lack of inventory. The benchmark price for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $620,100 in November, up from $517,400 this same time 2015. Condominiums are also up, $371,300 from $304,200, and townhouses as well at $501,300 from $415,600 last year. On the Saanich Peninsula, the November benchmark price for a single family home in each municipality was $841,000 in North Saanich, $584,600 in SidMonthly Sales Comparison ney, and $662,600 in Greater Victoria - (2013-2016) Central Saanich. 1400

In Saanich, Victoria and Westshore, increasing prices continue with single 599 family home benchmarks at $880,200 in Cadboro Bay, $896,400 in Cordova Bay, $1,077,000 in Oak Bay, $729,700 in Victoria, $588,400 in Esquimalt, $505,000 in Langford, $561,700 in Colwood and $420,900 in Sooke. Number of Sales

1200

1000

800

600

400

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911 WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2013

294

394

483

615

659

664

583

540

487

512

412

355

2014

342

412

575

664

714

680

681

609

565

602

465

389

2015

351

542

734

840

905

910

796

741

704

734

573

465

2016

539

772

1121

1286

1289

1174

972

883

781

735

599

In the luxury market, there were 17 waterfront homes sold in October. A total of 47 properties sold over $1M. Of those, 6 were over $2M with the highest value sale being a luxury waterfront estate selling for $9.7M in Oak Bay. The lowest priced freehold home sale in the Victoria area was $255,000 in Sooke.


CAPITAL REGION SALES HOW TO INTERPRET ABSORPTION RATES An absorption rate is the rate at which available homes are in a specific market area during a given period of time. This is calculated by dividing the average number of sales into the number of homes currently on the market. The rate shows how many months it will take to exhaust the supply of homes. A value between 5 and 6 months is considered to indicate a healthy, balanced market. A value over 6 is considered a Buyers market, and values under 5 are generally a Sellers market.

Absorption Rate

Greater Victoria Area - (2013-2016)

12

11.2

Months of Inventory

11 10

9.3

10.6

9

9.6

9.3

9.0

8

8.4

3

7.2

7.3

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.1

6.6

6.4

6.6

6.5

6.1

5.6

6.0

5.8

5.0

3.9 4.1

4.5

3.7

2

3.3

2.2 2.0 1.9

4.0

1.9 2.0

4.0

3.8

2.1 December

November

October

2016

4.3

September

2015

August

July

2014

June

2013

2.6 May

April

March

February

January

1

7.7

8.3

5 4

7.8

9.2

7.9

7 6

10.5

11.9

11.5


Absorption Rate

Greater Victoria Area - (2013-2016)

12

11.2

Months of Inventory

11 10

11.5

9.3

10.6

9

9.6

9.3

9.0

8

8.4

3

7.2

7.3

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.1

6.6

6.4

6.6

6.5

6.1

5.6

6.0

5.8

5.0

3.9 4.1

4.5

3.7

2

3.3

2.2 2.0 1.9

4.0

4.0

3.8

1.9 2.0 2.1 December

November

October

2016

4.3

September

2015

August

July

2014

June

2013

2.6 May

April

March

February

January

1

7.7

8.3

5 4

7.8

9.2

7.9

7 6

10.5

11.9


Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months)

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Active Listings

Number of Sales


Monthly Sales Comparison Greater Victoria - (2013-2016)

1400

Number of Sales

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2013

294

394

483

615

659

664

583

540

487

512

412

355

2014

342

412

575

664

714

680

681

609

565

602

465

389

2015

351

542

734

840

905

910

796

741

704

734

573

465

2016

539

772

1121

1286

1289

1174

972

883

781

735

599


Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached November 2016

4.00

3.71 3.50

Months of Inventory

3.07

3.00

3.00

2.54 2.50

2.13

2.03 2.00

1.81

1.50

1.13 1.00

0.92

0.86 0.70 0.44

0.50

0.23 0.00

1.17 1.03


Absorption Rates - Condominiums November 2016

11

6.00

Months of Inventory

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

1.70

1.05 1.00

1.32

1.24 0.95

0.87 0.31

0.00

0.86 0.38

0.19


Absorption Rates - Townhouses November 2016

7.00

6.40

Months of Inventory

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

3.00

2.77

2.67

2.42 2.00

1.50

0.45 0.00

0.00

1.03

0.96

0.93

1.00

0.62 0.00


Absorption Rates - Manufactured Homes November 2016

4.00

3.71

Months of Inventory

3.50

3.00

3.00

2.57 2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

1.80

1.88


Absorption Rates - Saanich Peninsula November 2016 4 3.07 3 2.67

3

2.57 2

1.81 1.70 1.88

2 1.13 1 0.96 1

0

n/a

0.19 0.00 n/a

North Saanich

Sidney

Central Saanich


Holmes Realty - Market Update - December 2016