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BackChat

Finance Minister

Every quarter we talk to a financial industry ‘insider’ about the breaking news in the wider financial community.

A fund for all seasons

There are very few investment funds that we hold in most client portfolios. The reason is that funds that can deliver higher returns for those prepared to accept higher risks are rarely suitable for those of a more cautious disposition. Church House Tenax is an exception, and is held in most of the portfolios managed on the Parmenion platform. Tenax is an absolute return fund which seeks to earn modest returns while limiting risk. Our expectation is that it will generate returns of 3% to 5% a year, but in 2016 it has done rather better than this. Its highly flexible and opportunistic approach is, we think, well suited to the uncertain investment environment we face. The fund is jointly managed by Jeremy Wharton and James Mahon. James is a former stockbroker who founded the management company Church House in 1999; Jeremy spent many years in the gilt-edged market and then moved into managing derivatives. Like many small ’boutique’ investment management firms, they focus all their efforts on managing just a few specialised funds. As our chart shows, the fund has avoided a lot of the recent turbulence in the stock market while moving steadily ahead. We hope for similar results over the next few years.

Jeremy Wharton

James Mahon

Winter 2017

Recent comments by the Tenax managers “Tenax is managed to deliver absolute returns with low volatility and although there is an overlying strategic approach designed to control risk, much of the returns are derived from tactical, even opportunist trading to exploit valuation opportunities.

Market gains: too good to last?

This has helped us maintain the low volatility in the Fund whilst still generating a gain of 7.2% over 2016 to 30th November.

In our last newsletter, we expressed surprise at the way financial markets had responded to the BREXIT vote in June - broadly, most world stock markets climbed in the months after the vote, contrary to what we and most other investors had expected. In November we had another surprise. We were expecting Hillary Clinton to win the US Presidential election and thought that a Trump victory would spook the financial markets. Wrong again! Stock markets around the world have continued upwards, though there has been a small rise in long-term interest rates which has caused a modest fall in the price of government bonds.

The fact that the Fund now holds about half its assets in near-cash investments is a clear indication of our concerns over valuations in most asset classes. We feel the significant risks facing markets are rising inflation leading to higher interest rates. This is a particular risk to bond markets which, following years of quantitative easing are totally unprepared for rising interest rates.

Tenax has used its valuationdriven process to good effect in 2016, taking advantage of the market panics in January/ February, and again on June 24th (post EU Referendum) to buy stocks and bonds at extremely attractive valuations. Despite the opportunistic buying, positive Our floating rate note weight at 25% cashflow throughout the year has is a hedge against rising rates, our ensured that the allocation to equity weight at 11% is as low as it near-cash investments, principally Performance Line has Chart ever been, and our other nearfloating rate notes and short dated cash holdings will allow us to exploit gilts, has remained pretty constant pricing opportunities in any market at 40% - 45% of the volatility.” Pricingportfolio. Spread: Bid-Bid ● Data Frequency: Daily ● Currency: Pounds Sterling

Stable returns from Church House Tenax From January 2014 to November 2016. Source: Financial Express

A B

A = FSTE 100 TR in GB (17.79%) B = SVS Church House - Tenax Absolute Return Stratrgies A Acc in GB (15.25%) Performance Line Chart

4 July 2016 Pricing Spread: Bid-Bid ● Data Frequency: Daily ● Currency: Pounds Sterling

Important Information

None of the comments in this newsletter are recommendations for any specific investment. We will only make investment recommendations based on the personal circumstances of clients. The prices of investments may fall and you may not get back the amounts invested. The levels of taxation may change and the value of reliefs and allowances depend on the personal circumstances. Data provided by FE. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct but it neither warrants,|

|represents nor guarantees the contents of theBS22 information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein.| Fiveways Financial Planning, 201 Park Way, Worle, Weston Super Mare, North Somerset 6WA |Financial Express Limited Registration number: 2405213. Registered office: 3rd Floor, Hollywood House, Church Street East, Woking, GU21 6HJ. Telephone 01483 783 900| |Website:www.financialexpress.net Tel: 01934 511511 Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk www.fivewaysfp.co.uk

Your Journey, Our Guidance

8 December 2016

Fortunately, our investment approach is based on responding to economic data and prospects, not to political noise or opinion polls, so we did not alter client portfolios in anticipation of the BREXIT vote or the US election. This means that broadly speaking clients have had two good years. Our chart shows the performance of our Balanced portfolio, which has 60% of capital invested in shares. The value of this portfolio is up 19% over two years and up 11% over one year. Individual client results will vary somewhat from this depending on the start date of their investment, and those with higher tolerance of risk have done much better. We show two comparisons: The FTSE All Share Index, the most representative measure of UK share prices, and the ARC Balanced Index, which is an average of results from over 50 UK investment managers running Balanced portfolios. Our Balanced portfolio has done better than both of them, and as the chart shows, it has fallen much less during downturns than the All-Share Index. So we are achieving one of our aims, which is to limit the potential for loss in our portfolios.

It is unlikely we will always do as well as this, because we don’t have a crystal ball. Moreover, the markets will not always be so kind. In fact, we feel the markets are likely to be more turbulent over the next few years because the actual results of a Trump presidency and of BREXIT are still to come and we think there could be some negative economic effects. So we caution clients not to expect such high returns in the next year or two.

risks of another crisis or recession will remain small. The politics is another matter. BREXIT negotiations mean grandstanding by European and UK politicians - it often sounds like negotiation by megaphone and European populism means there is a risk of a lurch to the right in Italy, France and Germany that might signal the start of a collapse of the whole EU project. As for President Trump, unpredictability is the one thing we can predict.

Economic data still positive However, we do not share the gloomy outlook of many pundits. We agree But this kind of political uncertainty is that there has been too much use of normal - it is only its scope that varies. monetary policy to counteract the after- And one of the things we have learnt effects of the financial crisis, with lots from history is that it is the economic of unwelcome side effects. And we also factors that really drive markets most of worry about rising debt levels worldwide. the time (wars excepted). So investors But the actual data - unemployment, taking a long-term view - ours is focused growth, consumer confidence, business on a 3-5 year timeframe - should not be investment - are all pretty positive, in the too perturbed. We suggest that if you US, the UK, Japan, Europe andPerformance China. Linestart Chart feeling anxious, you watch less of And until that data changes, we think the the news.

2 Decembe

How the balanced portfolio has performed Pricing Spread: Bid-Bid ● Data Frequency: Daily ● Currency: Pounds Sterling

The performance of our Balanced portfolio on Parmenion is shown from its inception in Autumn 2014 to mid-November 2016. Source: Financial Express.

A

B C

A = Parmenion New Balanced B = FTSE All Share C = ARC Sterling Balanced Asset

Performance Line Chart 4 July 2016 Pricing Spread: Bid-Bid ● Data Frequency: Daily ● Currency: Pounds Sterling

Data provided by FE. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct but it neither warrants,| |represents nor guarantees the contents of the information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein.| |Financial Express Limited Registration number: 2405213. Registered office: 3rd Floor, Hollywood House, Church Street East, Woking, GU21 6HJ. Telephone 01483 783 900| |Website:www.financialexpress.net

Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk or Tel: 01934 511511

Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk or Tel: 01934 511511 Data provided by FE. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct but it neither warrants,| |represents nor guarantees the contents of the information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein.| |Financial Express Limited Registration number: 2405213. Registered office: 3rd Floor, Hollywood House, Church Street East, Woking, GU21 6HJ. Telephone 01483 783 900| |Website:www.financialexpress.net


Winter 2017 - Finance Minister

Anger over mounting care crisis In response to increasing evidence of a ‘care crisis’, the government has said it will allow councils to increase council tax bills in 201819 to enable them to increase social care budgets. But this is no more than a sticking plaster for wounds that require major surgery. In recent months, NHS chiefs have complained about bed-blocking by patients who cannot be discharged because social services cannot find accommodation for them. Care homes teeter on the verge of bankruptcy because the rate local authorities pay them is barely enough and costs have risen due to the Minimum Living Wage. Local authorities have had their social care budgets slashed by central government and have reduced services and cut staff. In areas where local authorities have or are seeking more control over service delivery, such as Greater Manchester, attempts are being made to integrate NHS services and social care provision. But this is barely happening elsewhere and will take time to produce improvements. Several former health ministers have urged the government to seek a cross-party consensus for big reforms that would involve more integration of social

The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement disappointed with no extra funding for social care. The response from Age UK was this:

The Government’s failure to provide any respite for our beleaguered social care system in the Autumn Statement spells deepening misery for many older people. It means current trends are certain to continue: more older people will get no help or not enough help; more care companies will exit the market or fold; more people will have to fund their own care and face big, rising bills; more family members - including many in their 80s and 90s - will have to shoulder the care of a loved one alone; more care staff will quit for less stressful jobs elsewhere; and all the good people working in social care battling to sustain good standards of care will face an even tougher job than they do today.

care with the NHS across the whole country. Unfortunately for people who need to arrange care, either at home or in a residential home, one result is that many people are not told about benefits they are entitled to. Because of the complexity of the system, it is hard for most people to work this out. It’s estimated that over £3.5 billion of benefits are not being claimed in the UK every year – mainly by the elderly. Ian Evans, our Head of Later Life Advice, specialises in this area. He is a member of the Society Of Later Life Advisers (SOLLA), which accredits financial advisers who meet its rigorous standards. Ian is one of only 350 advisers in the country accredited with SOLLA and his knowledge has helped many clients to secure benefits they did not know they were entitled to and to make satisfactory arrangements for people managing the affairs of elderly relatives. The one piece of advice Ian will give to everyone is to set up Lasting Power of Attorney well in advance of when it is needed. This can save enormous sums of money and avoid the anxiety and delays you will suffer if you have to apply to the Court of Protection to take charge of someone’s affairs.

FiveWays support Children’s Hospice FiveWays Financial Planning has given Children’s Hospice South West an initial £1,000 after selecting the charity for its support. FiveWays director Jim Bloodworth says everyone at FiveWays is hugely impressed by the work Children’s Hospice does with lifelimited children at Charlton Farm near Wraxall: “Their care and commitment to their work obviously needs a lot of financial support and we are happy to do our bit.”

Pension scams: put down the phone!

money for its work. In addition, FiveWays the most of short and precious lives is are giving the CHSW £10 for every client only possible with the support of local companies and individuals. We are very feedback form returned to us. excited to work with the team at FiveWays Says Janey Hellmen of the Children’s Financial Planning and are grateful for Hospice: “CHSW’s mission to make their enthusiasm and generosity.”

We have committed to sponsor the charity’s Rainbow Run in Bristol next summer and our staff are getting involved in local activities to increase awareness of the Hospice as well as to raise more

Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk or Tel: 01934 511511

Janey Hellmen of Children’s Hospice and Jim Bloodworth, Jon Lawson and Melissa Moore of FiveWays Financial Planning.

Investment seminars coming in Spring Following the success of our series of investment seminars last Autumn, we are planning a series of three seminars in Spring 2017, which will take place at hotels in North Somerset. The presentation will run from 10 am to 12.30 pm and be followed by lunch. The investment theme - Investing safely in an uncertain world - will be presented by our Head of Investment Chris Gilchrist, while tax planning aspects of investing, especially inheritance tax, will be covered by other members of the FiveWays team and by Sharon Collier, a partner at solicitors Porter Dodson.

Feedback from the Autumn series was excellent. “I feel I learned a lot, everything was clearly explained.” “Impressive, very useful and professional”. “A great boost to my investment knowledge which has increased my confidence in what FiveWays are doing for me.” We have a number of spaces available for existing clients at these seminars. If you would like to attend, please contact Sara Rossiter, and we will send you full details of the programme as soon as they are available. You are also welcome to invite a friend to join you if you wish.

Inheritance tax changes bring Will concerns The introduction of the residential nil-rate band to inheritance tax law is welcome in one respect - it means that by 2020 a married couple will pay no inheritance tax on an estate of up to £1 million (up from £650,000 today) provided they pass a house worth £350,000 or more to their children. But the highly complex set of rules that applies from April 2017 means that many people will need to rewrite their Wills to achieve their aims as well as paying the smallest possible final tax bill. Rewriting a Will is an opportunity to update it and address common concerns such as: • How can I be confident that my spouse/ partner will be properly provided for when I am gone? • Who will look after my children if both I and my wife die prematurely?

• How can I protect my assets if one of my children divorces? • How can I prevent my children inheriting to much too young? For many people, a simple way to mitigate inheritance tax can be to buy investments that qualify for Business Property Relief, which means they are removed from your taxable estate after just two years’ ownership. Such investments do carry a higher level of risk, but this can be more than offset by potential tax savings that add up to 70% of the initial investment. We will be discussing Will revisions with clients during our regular reviews, but please contact your adviser if you feel you need to take action immediately.

Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk or Tel: 01934 511511

Thousands of people have lost money to fraudsters in ‘pension scams’ across the country. The industry regulator has issued several warnings about this, but so far it has not been able to stop rogues picking up the phone and calling you with what seems like an attractive offer. Usually this involves ‘guarantees’ of high returns on your investments if you transfer money out of an existing pension fund. Now the regulators have proposed an outright ban on cold calling, though this won’t take effect for several months. If someone calls you out of the blue about your pension, our advice is: put the phone down! Only firms that are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (as we are) are legally permitted to offer you financial advice. The callers are likely to be unregulated. What often happens is that once money is transferred into the ‘investment’, it vanishes. And if you have dealt with an unauthorised firm, you are not covered by the UK investor compensation scheme.


Winter 2017 - Finance Minister

Anger over mounting care crisis In response to increasing evidence of a ‘care crisis’, the government has said it will allow councils to increase council tax bills in 201819 to enable them to increase social care budgets. But this is no more than a sticking plaster for wounds that require major surgery. In recent months, NHS chiefs have complained about bed-blocking by patients who cannot be discharged because social services cannot find accommodation for them. Care homes teeter on the verge of bankruptcy because the rate local authorities pay them is barely enough and costs have risen due to the Minimum Living Wage. Local authorities have had their social care budgets slashed by central government and have reduced services and cut staff. In areas where local authorities have or are seeking more control over service delivery, such as Greater Manchester, attempts are being made to integrate NHS services and social care provision. But this is barely happening elsewhere and will take time to produce improvements. Several former health ministers have urged the government to seek a cross-party consensus for big reforms that would involve more integration of social

The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement disappointed with no extra funding for social care. The response from Age UK was this:

The Government’s failure to provide any respite for our beleaguered social care system in the Autumn Statement spells deepening misery for many older people. It means current trends are certain to continue: more older people will get no help or not enough help; more care companies will exit the market or fold; more people will have to fund their own care and face big, rising bills; more family members - including many in their 80s and 90s - will have to shoulder the care of a loved one alone; more care staff will quit for less stressful jobs elsewhere; and all the good people working in social care battling to sustain good standards of care will face an even tougher job than they do today.

care with the NHS across the whole country. Unfortunately for people who need to arrange care, either at home or in a residential home, one result is that many people are not told about benefits they are entitled to. Because of the complexity of the system, it is hard for most people to work this out. It’s estimated that over £3.5 billion of benefits are not being claimed in the UK every year – mainly by the elderly. Ian Evans, our Head of Later Life Advice, specialises in this area. He is a member of the Society Of Later Life Advisers (SOLLA), which accredits financial advisers who meet its rigorous standards. Ian is one of only 350 advisers in the country accredited with SOLLA and his knowledge has helped many clients to secure benefits they did not know they were entitled to and to make satisfactory arrangements for people managing the affairs of elderly relatives. The one piece of advice Ian will give to everyone is to set up Lasting Power of Attorney well in advance of when it is needed. This can save enormous sums of money and avoid the anxiety and delays you will suffer if you have to apply to the Court of Protection to take charge of someone’s affairs.

FiveWays support Children’s Hospice FiveWays Financial Planning has given Children’s Hospice South West an initial £1,000 after selecting the charity for its support. FiveWays director Jim Bloodworth says everyone at FiveWays is hugely impressed by the work Children’s Hospice does with lifelimited children at Charlton Farm near Wraxall: “Their care and commitment to their work obviously needs a lot of financial support and we are happy to do our bit.”

Pension scams: put down the phone!

money for its work. In addition, FiveWays the most of short and precious lives is are giving the CHSW £10 for every client only possible with the support of local companies and individuals. We are very feedback form returned to us. excited to work with the team at FiveWays Says Janey Hellmen of the Children’s Financial Planning and are grateful for Hospice: “CHSW’s mission to make their enthusiasm and generosity.”

We have committed to sponsor the charity’s Rainbow Run in Bristol next summer and our staff are getting involved in local activities to increase awareness of the Hospice as well as to raise more

Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk or Tel: 01934 511511

Janey Hellmen of Children’s Hospice and Jim Bloodworth, Jon Lawson and Melissa Moore of FiveWays Financial Planning.

Investment seminars coming in Spring Following the success of our series of investment seminars last Autumn, we are planning a series of three seminars in Spring 2017, which will take place at hotels in North Somerset. The presentation will run from 10 am to 12.30 pm and be followed by lunch. The investment theme - Investing safely in an uncertain world - will be presented by our Head of Investment Chris Gilchrist, while tax planning aspects of investing, especially inheritance tax, will be covered by other members of the FiveWays team and by Sharon Collier, a partner at solicitors Porter Dodson.

Feedback from the Autumn series was excellent. “I feel I learned a lot, everything was clearly explained.” “Impressive, very useful and professional”. “A great boost to my investment knowledge which has increased my confidence in what FiveWays are doing for me.” We have a number of spaces available for existing clients at these seminars. If you would like to attend, please contact Sara Rossiter, and we will send you full details of the programme as soon as they are available. You are also welcome to invite a friend to join you if you wish.

Inheritance tax changes bring Will concerns The introduction of the residential nil-rate band to inheritance tax law is welcome in one respect - it means that by 2020 a married couple will pay no inheritance tax on an estate of up to £1 million (up from £650,000 today) provided they pass a house worth £350,000 or more to their children. But the highly complex set of rules that applies from April 2017 means that many people will need to rewrite their Wills to achieve their aims as well as paying the smallest possible final tax bill. Rewriting a Will is an opportunity to update it and address common concerns such as: • How can I be confident that my spouse/ partner will be properly provided for when I am gone? • Who will look after my children if both I and my wife die prematurely?

• How can I protect my assets if one of my children divorces? • How can I prevent my children inheriting to much too young? For many people, a simple way to mitigate inheritance tax can be to buy investments that qualify for Business Property Relief, which means they are removed from your taxable estate after just two years’ ownership. Such investments do carry a higher level of risk, but this can be more than offset by potential tax savings that add up to 70% of the initial investment. We will be discussing Will revisions with clients during our regular reviews, but please contact your adviser if you feel you need to take action immediately.

Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk or Tel: 01934 511511

Thousands of people have lost money to fraudsters in ‘pension scams’ across the country. The industry regulator has issued several warnings about this, but so far it has not been able to stop rogues picking up the phone and calling you with what seems like an attractive offer. Usually this involves ‘guarantees’ of high returns on your investments if you transfer money out of an existing pension fund. Now the regulators have proposed an outright ban on cold calling, though this won’t take effect for several months. If someone calls you out of the blue about your pension, our advice is: put the phone down! Only firms that are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (as we are) are legally permitted to offer you financial advice. The callers are likely to be unregulated. What often happens is that once money is transferred into the ‘investment’, it vanishes. And if you have dealt with an unauthorised firm, you are not covered by the UK investor compensation scheme.


BackChat

Finance Minister

Every quarter we talk to a financial industry ‘insider’ about the breaking news in the wider financial community.

A fund for all seasons

There are very few investment funds that we hold in most client portfolios. The reason is that funds that can deliver higher returns for those prepared to accept higher risks are rarely suitable for those of a more cautious disposition. Church House Tenax is an exception, and is held in most of the portfolios managed on the Parmenion platform. Tenax is an absolute return fund which seeks to earn modest returns while limiting risk. Our expectation is that it will generate returns of 3% to 5% a year, but in 2016 it has done rather better than this. Its highly flexible and opportunistic approach is, we think, well suited to the uncertain investment environment we face. The fund is jointly managed by Jeremy Wharton and James Mahon. James is a former stockbroker who founded the management company Church House in 1999; Jeremy spent many years in the gilt-edged market and then moved into managing derivatives. Like many small ’boutique’ investment management firms, they focus all their efforts on managing just a few specialised funds. As our chart shows, the fund has avoided a lot of the recent turbulence in the stock market while moving steadily ahead. We hope for similar results over the next few years.

Jeremy Wharton

James Mahon

Winter 2017

Recent comments by the Tenax managers “Tenax is managed to deliver absolute returns with low volatility and although there is an overlying strategic approach designed to control risk, much of the returns are derived from tactical, even opportunist trading to exploit valuation opportunities.

Market gains: too good to last?

This has helped us maintain the low volatility in the Fund whilst still generating a gain of 7.2% over 2016 to 30th November.

In our last newsletter, we expressed surprise at the way financial markets had responded to the BREXIT vote in June - broadly, most world stock markets climbed in the months after the vote, contrary to what we and most other investors had expected. In November we had another surprise. We were expecting Hillary Clinton to win the US Presidential election and thought that a Trump victory would spook the financial markets. Wrong again! Stock markets around the world have continued upwards, though there has been a small rise in long-term interest rates which has caused a modest fall in the price of government bonds.

The fact that the Fund now holds about half its assets in near-cash investments is a clear indication of our concerns over valuations in most asset classes. We feel the significant risks facing markets are rising inflation leading to higher interest rates. This is a particular risk to bond markets which, following years of quantitative easing are totally unprepared for rising interest rates.

Tenax has used its valuationdriven process to good effect in 2016, taking advantage of the market panics in January/ February, and again on June 24th (post EU Referendum) to buy stocks and bonds at extremely attractive valuations. Despite the opportunistic buying, positive Our floating rate note weight at 25% cashflow throughout the year has is a hedge against rising rates, our ensured that the allocation to equity weight at 11% is as low as it near-cash investments, principally Performance Line has Chart ever been, and our other nearfloating rate notes and short dated cash holdings will allow us to exploit gilts, has remained pretty constant pricing opportunities in any market at 40% - 45% of the volatility.” Pricingportfolio. Spread: Bid-Bid ● Data Frequency: Daily ● Currency: Pounds Sterling

Stable returns from Church House Tenax From January 2014 to November 2016. Source: Financial Express

A B

A = FSTE 100 TR in GB (17.79%) B = SVS Church House - Tenax Absolute Return Stratrgies A Acc in GB (15.25%) Performance Line Chart

4 July 2016 Pricing Spread: Bid-Bid ● Data Frequency: Daily ● Currency: Pounds Sterling

Important Information

None of the comments in this newsletter are recommendations for any specific investment. We will only make investment recommendations based on the personal circumstances of clients. The prices of investments may fall and you may not get back the amounts invested. The levels of taxation may change and the value of reliefs and allowances depend on the personal circumstances. Data provided by FE. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct but it neither warrants,|

|represents nor guarantees the contents of theBS22 information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein.| Fiveways Financial Planning, 201 Park Way, Worle, Weston Super Mare, North Somerset 6WA |Financial Express Limited Registration number: 2405213. Registered office: 3rd Floor, Hollywood House, Church Street East, Woking, GU21 6HJ. Telephone 01483 783 900| |Website:www.financialexpress.net Tel: 01934 511511 Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk www.fivewaysfp.co.uk

Your Journey, Our Guidance

8 December 2016

Fortunately, our investment approach is based on responding to economic data and prospects, not to political noise or opinion polls, so we did not alter client portfolios in anticipation of the BREXIT vote or the US election. This means that broadly speaking clients have had two good years. Our chart shows the performance of our Balanced portfolio, which has 60% of capital invested in shares. The value of this portfolio is up 19% over two years and up 11% over one year. Individual client results will vary somewhat from this depending on the start date of their investment, and those with higher tolerance of risk have done much better. We show two comparisons: The FTSE All Share Index, the most representative measure of UK share prices, and the ARC Balanced Index, which is an average of results from over 50 UK investment managers running Balanced portfolios. Our Balanced portfolio has done better than both of them, and as the chart shows, it has fallen much less during downturns than the All-Share Index. So we are achieving one of our aims, which is to limit the potential for loss in our portfolios.

It is unlikely we will always do as well as this, because we don’t have a crystal ball. Moreover, the markets will not always be so kind. In fact, we feel the markets are likely to be more turbulent over the next few years because the actual results of a Trump presidency and of BREXIT are still to come and we think there could be some negative economic effects. So we caution clients not to expect such high returns in the next year or two.

risks of another crisis or recession will remain small. The politics is another matter. BREXIT negotiations mean grandstanding by European and UK politicians - it often sounds like negotiation by megaphone and European populism means there is a risk of a lurch to the right in Italy, France and Germany that might signal the start of a collapse of the whole EU project. As for President Trump, unpredictability is the one thing we can predict.

Economic data still positive However, we do not share the gloomy outlook of many pundits. We agree But this kind of political uncertainty is that there has been too much use of normal - it is only its scope that varies. monetary policy to counteract the after- And one of the things we have learnt effects of the financial crisis, with lots from history is that it is the economic of unwelcome side effects. And we also factors that really drive markets most of worry about rising debt levels worldwide. the time (wars excepted). So investors But the actual data - unemployment, taking a long-term view - ours is focused growth, consumer confidence, business on a 3-5 year timeframe - should not be investment - are all pretty positive, in the too perturbed. We suggest that if you US, the UK, Japan, Europe andPerformance China. Linestart Chart feeling anxious, you watch less of And until that data changes, we think the the news.

2 Decembe

How the balanced portfolio has performed Pricing Spread: Bid-Bid ● Data Frequency: Daily ● Currency: Pounds Sterling

The performance of our Balanced portfolio on Parmenion is shown from its inception in Autumn 2014 to mid-November 2016. Source: Financial Express.

A

B C

A = Parmenion New Balanced B = FTSE All Share C = ARC Sterling Balanced Asset

Performance Line Chart 4 July 2016 Pricing Spread: Bid-Bid ● Data Frequency: Daily ● Currency: Pounds Sterling

Data provided by FE. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct but it neither warrants,| |represents nor guarantees the contents of the information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein.| |Financial Express Limited Registration number: 2405213. Registered office: 3rd Floor, Hollywood House, Church Street East, Woking, GU21 6HJ. Telephone 01483 783 900| |Website:www.financialexpress.net

Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk or Tel: 01934 511511

Email: info@fivewaysfp.co.uk or Tel: 01934 511511 Data provided by FE. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct but it neither warrants,| |represents nor guarantees the contents of the information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein.| |Financial Express Limited Registration number: 2405213. Registered office: 3rd Floor, Hollywood House, Church Street East, Woking, GU21 6HJ. Telephone 01483 783 900| |Website:www.financialexpress.net

Finance minister winter 2017  
Finance minister winter 2017  
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