Page 1


Cost of housing Shelter for the homeless Public safety Traffic congestion K-12 schools quality Access to healthcare Availability of good jobs Road maintenance 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


0 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Units in 000s

U.S. Housing Starts, Annual and Trailing 10 Year Average

Multifamily

1500

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD

Single Family 10 Year MA

2500

2000

Housing production decreasing since 2016

1000

500


U.S. Housing Starts to Household Formation (5 year moving average)

1.70 1.60 1.50

Underproduction from 2011 to 2018

1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70

1.1 is the long run ratio of housing starts per household formed nationally

0.60 0.50

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0.40 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD


0.89 Housing Starts per Household Formed 2000 to 2016

Source: U.S. Census, Moody’s Analytics, ECONorthwest Calculations


Underproduction of housing

6 Source: ECONorthwest and Up For Growth


$1,400

100% MFI

Average Monthly Rent

$1,200

2017 to 2018 Income + 9% Rent +2.1%

1 Bedroom Avg. Rent

$1,000

$800

60% MFI

$600

$400

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: Costar, HUD, ECONorthwest Calculations

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018


Every 1% increase in population is associated with a 2.2% increase in housing prices


City of Portland Multifamily Units Existing

Under Construction

9,000 8000

8,000 7,000

6,560 5900

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000

3,019

1,600

1,000 -

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

U.C


Average Building Level Rent Change (12 months through August)

2017

2018

6.0% 5.0%

5.0%

4.8%

4.0% 3.0%

2.3%

1.7%

2.0% 1.0%

1.4%

0.9% 0.2%

0.0% -1.0% -2.0%

-2.4%

-3.0%

Less than $1k

$1k to $1.5k

$1.5k to $2k

More than $2k

-2.7%

-3.1%

-1.2%

-3.3%

Change from 2017 to 2018

Source: Axiometrics, ECONorthwest Calculations


Below 60% MFI


Rent explains about 50% of variance in homelessness rate for a metro 0.50% LA

Share of MSA population that is homeless

0.45%

NY

0.40%

San Jose Seattle

0.35%

San Francisco

Las Vegas

0.30%

Portland

0.25%

Tampa

0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% $500

$750

$1,000

$1,250 $1,500 Median Gross Rent

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

Portland Metro has the 8th highest rate of homelessness nationally Source: ECONorthwest analysis of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2017 Point-In-Time Count and the U.S. Census Bureau 2016 American Community Survey data, Top 50 MSAs


Web app available at: https://www.upforgrowth.org/supply-units-price


Web app available at: https://www.upforgrowth.org/supply-units-price


Web app available at: https://www.upforgrowth.org/supply-units-price


Web app available at: https://www.upforgrowth.org/supply-units-price


High cost of housing

Personal circumstances

Don't know

0%

10%

20%

Source: KGW/DHM Research, Portland Homeless Survey, October 5, 2017

30%

40%

50%

60%


https://www.oregoncf.org/Templates/media/files/reports/OregonHomelessness.pdf


9,000

Count of Homeless Persons

8,000 7,000

Four-county total 5,548

6,000

5,967

5,000 4,000

4,177

Multnomah 3,801

3,000 2,000 1,000

Clackamas

749

Clark

544

Washington 0

2007

2009

497 2011

2013

2015

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of HUD Point in Time Counts, 2007-2017 Note: These data come from the HUD CoCs: Portland-Gresham-Multnomah County CoC, Clackamas County CoC, Hillsboro/Beaverton/ Washington County CoC, and Vancouver/Clark County CoC.

2017


9,000

Count of Homeless Persons

8,000

7,566

All

7,000 6,000

6,391

5,967 Episodic

5,000

4,287

4,000 3,000 2,000

1,680 1,175

Chronic

1,000 0

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of HUD Point in Time Counts, 2007-2017 Note: These data come from the HUD CoCs: Portland-Gresham-Multnomah County CoC, Clackamas County CoC, Hillsboro/Beaverton/ Washington County CoC, and Vancouver/Clark County CoC.

2017


1. Market-based housing supply response 2. Means-tested, subsidized housing 3. Targeting programming for high-cost, highneeds individuals 4. Emergency shelters 1 2 3 4


 HUD Family Option Study: randomized control trials assigned families vouchers  Long-term: 5% of families had shelter stay 3 years after  Short-term: 16% of families had shelter stay 3 years after

 But HUD assistance is limited  32,000 households receive some HUD assistance  56,000 households in Portland under 50% MFI with severe housing cost burden  Would cost up to $500 million annually to provide vouchers to to 56k households


 One involves ~1,700 individuals struggling with mental/physical disabilities, substance abuse, criminal records, or circumstances creating housing barriers.  Every community in the U.S.—large and small—has people who will struggle to maintain stable housing without significant, sustained support. Portland is not unique.


 The second involves tens of thousands of individuals—the short-term homeless and the growing number of severely cost-burdened households on the verge of homelessness.  Portland’s second crisis is worse than in most other places, and it has two causes: a dysfunctional, under-supplied regional housing market and an unresponsive, discretionary federal rental assistance program.


• Amount of construction activity and permitting decreasing in the City of Portland (and the region) • Inclusionary Housing is not the only reason • Market conditions changing (construction cost increases, rent stagnation, slow absorption) • Vested units masking true impact of policy • Increase in construction and permitting of buildings with 19 units and fewer (exempt from IH) • Policy calibration outside of central city is incentivizing production in areas with lower rent


PHB has not produced the two year summary report to date as required


3,000 Remaining Vested Units in Land Use Review – Expire Feb 2020 2,000 of the 3,300 units in land use review are speculative projects, unlikely to go forward in near term


2018 Units in Permit Applications (5,014 total units) 2,500 2,000

2,138 1,709

(1,167 exempt units)

1,500 1,000

625

542

12-20 Units

Less than 12 units

500 0 Projects Subject Pre-IH Vested to IH or Affordable

Total Units by Permit Applications (20 Units or More) 8,000 7,000 6,000 534

5,000 4,000 3,000

1,709

2,000 2,138

1,000

734

0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Pre-IH Units

2015

Post-IH Units

2016

2017

2018

2019


Total Units by Permit Applications (12-19 Units) 700

600

500

Units

400

300

200

100

0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

YTD 2019


• City of Portland and Metro Affordable Housing Bonds looking to acquire units to preserve affordability <60%MFI (targeting $175k or less per unit) • Emergence of social equity funds (Gerding Edlen and Meyer Memorial) looking to acquire and preserve NOAH units ~ 80% to 120% MFI with minimal rehab cost • New construction faces challenging financial feasibility, institutional capital shift to acquisition (value add) strategy • Apartment registry, tenant protection laws, and rent control impact on investor valuation (Cap rate risk) • Mortgage and cap rate uncertainty in short and long run


wilkerson@econw.com

Profile for HFO Investment Real Estate

Portland Multifamily Housing Market, Underproduction, Inclusionary Zoning & Homelessness  

Mike Wilkerson of ECONorthwest presentation to HFOs Roundtable on May 7, 2019

Portland Multifamily Housing Market, Underproduction, Inclusionary Zoning & Homelessness  

Mike Wilkerson of ECONorthwest presentation to HFOs Roundtable on May 7, 2019

Profile for hfore