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Im pr H N o o Di vem me EW! re e ow cto nt n ry & er 20 Se 16 rvi ce


Haymarket Homeowner


g Market Watch: Year-to-Date Trends

Haymarket Area Featured Properties Farm to Table: Haymarket Area Farmers Markets Tips & Advice: Time to Mulch Community Spotlight: Gainesville Student to Bike Across the Country Ask Bryan: Buying a Second Home in Virginia and Beyond Market Watch: February 2016 Published by


"Haymarket Real Estate Guy" Associate Broker

EXIT Heritage Realty Haymarket, VA 703-517-2574

Real Estate & Community News from Bryan Garcia, "Haymarket Real Estate Guy" 703-517-2574

Spring 2016

Election Year and the Real Estate Market


oes anyone remember the last few months of 1999? Despite a healthy economy at the time, there was that fear of the “Y2K Bug” that put many consumers on pause with major decisions and spending until after the new year. Then the New Year's Eve ball dropped, nothing happened and life resumed. Some may wonder, with the uncertainty of a political election year, if the housing market—home prices and home sales—is affected. I did some research into the past four election cycles and concluded that there is no solid evidence to suggest that there is any direct correlation. I looked at patterns for home prices and sales surrounding 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 in the Mid-Atlantic region (see charts below). I compared data for the year before, the year of and the year after an election. The numbers are all over the place but there is one semi-consistent pattern. With the exception

Homes Sold

of 2008/2009, there is generally an improvement in both the election year and the year after the election over that of the prior year. Even though this is good news, I still believe it is not enough data to connect the two entirely. There are so many factors that contribute to the real estate market—interest rates, economic conditions, supply and demand, mortgage accessibility, location, etc. To look at just home prices and sales in one region would be an inaccurate assessment—especially considering that there was a housing boom, a recession and recovery during these years. Furthermore, prices and activity generally increase year to year anyway. The best way to look at the “health” of a real estate market is to look at economic confidence. In a robust economy, people tend to be optimistic, which helps consumer confidence and spending. In an economy characterized by high unemployment and stagnant wages, confidence declines. (Continued on next page.)

Median Sold Price

(Change from Previous Year)

(Change from Previous Year)

Election Year

Year After

Election Year

Year After

2000 2004 2008 2012

2001 2005 2009 2013

2000 2004 2008 2012

2001 2005 2009 2013

+6.6% +10.9% -12.8% +7.3%


+12.2% +.22% +9.9% +11.2%


+2.6% +21.7% -14.4% +8.1%

+9.5% +22.3% -10.7% +7.2%



Haymarket Homeowner Spring 2016  
Haymarket Homeowner Spring 2016  

Upscale and luxury living in the Haymarket and Gainesville, VA area of Prince William County and Northern Virginia. Real estate market trend...