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Foreword

Thinking beyond tomorrow is Hawksford’s positioning statement, but how does it translate into the world around us? That’s the central theme which runs throughout this book.

They’re asking hard questions of themselves and us. They’re looking at market and social trends and making judgements and decisions based upon that information.

For the first time, we have brought together leading individuals from the realms of business, society, education and culture to look at the trends, issues and opportunities which might affect the world’s future. We’ve asked these leaders to look at the big picture and ask the big questions.

Like everything connected with Hawksford, this book lives and breathes our ‘thinking beyond tomorrow’ approach and ethos. We hope you find it interesting, informative, innovative and challenging, enabling all of us to ‘think beyond tomorrow’.

This is ’thinking beyond tomorrow’ in action – looking at the factors around us now to help us plan for the future. By immersing ourselves in the possibility and challenge of tomorrow, we become more prepared for today. It also ensures we look at the past for lessons and direction for the years ahead. 20 years ago, no-one would have guessed the significance of the internet and the central role it plays in all of our lives. A decade before the internet, it was the mobile phone and a decade before that computing. Yet the innovators and the leaders – the kind of people we set before you here – are always thinking ahead, always challenging, always thought provoking.

Peter Murley Chief executive officer, Hawksford


Contents

Making bold and tough decisions for the future

4

By Lord Flight

The future of capitalism - east or west?

8

By Mark Field, MP for Cities of London and Westminster

From taxi-ing to take-off: let’s support UK aviation to deliver jobs and growth in tough economic times

12

By Darren Caplan, chief executive of the Airport Operators Association

Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow

16

By Sarah O’Grady, social affairs correspondent at The Daily Express

Ageing populations; boom or bust?

20

By Lord Filkin, CBE, chair of the committee on public service and demographic change

And the learners shall inherit the earth

24

By Jonathan Gillespie MA, head master of Lancing College

A global passion

28

By Duncan Revie, chief executive officer of Soccerex, the global convention for the football industry

The families of tomorrow

32

By Dr Katherine Rake, OBE, chief executive of the Family and Parenting Institute

The bigger picture

36

By Mark Littlewood, director general of the Institute of Economic Affairs

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow

40

By Marc Reeves, publisher, TheBusinessDesk.com, West Midlands, and partner at RJF Public Affairs

Travelling towards a safer future

44

By Edmund King, Automobile Association president, visiting professor of transport, Newcastle University and director of the AA Charitable Trust for Road Safety and the Environment

The Third Age - enjoyment not endurance

48

By Professor Janet Lord BSc, PhD, professor of immune cell biology, director MRC-ARUK Centre for Musculoskeletal Ageing Research and director of the Medawar Centre for Healthy Ageing Research

An entrepreneur’s perspective

52

By Stanley J Smith, Scott Farms International chief executive officer

London’s Olympic legacy

56

By Clive Dutton, OBE, executive director, regeneration and inward investment, London Borough of Newham

3


Thinking beyond tomorrow

4


Making

bold

and

tough decisions

for the future By Lord Flight 5


Thinking beyond tomorrow

It is difficult not to be pessimistic on most fronts, looking forward over the coming decade. We have so much to correct. But, I am optimistic about the changes in Britain’s education system for young people being led by Michael Gove, the 40 Technical Colleges being set up under Lord Baker’s efforts and the return of apprenticeship schemes, all of which should make more young people more employable. Britain has the potential to do well with its new technical and life science industries, while, notwithstanding the attacks on it, our financial services industry is also likely to hold its own. Real and nominal Exchange Rate movements should also make Britain more relatively competitive.

There is the potential for a much brighter future increasing our trade and business relationships with our Commonwealth partners

The dominant trend, however, can be expected to be the continuing advance of the successful new economies of Asia and Latin America, hugely outstripping economic growth in Continental Europe and the UK. Politicians, here and in Europe, look likely to continue to fail to take the bold and tough decisions quickly enough which are needed to free up their economies, slashing taxes and slashing public spending. Mature economies cannot grow much while their public sectors account for some 50% of GDP. In the UK, with the NHS and welfare spending accounting for more than half of all public spending, economic recovery cannot come through until reality is faced and both are cut back. Some 20 or 30 years ago, when travelling about the world on planes, it was a common sight to see citizens from the sub-continent of India dressed in traditional costumes and carrying all their kitchen equipment! Today it is smart, affluent citizens from Asia. Tomorrow it will be many more. The concept

6

that individuals in the West, living on welfare benefits, are ‘entitled’ to a higher standard of living than for example, engineers or doctors in India, will have to go. Arguably, the key issues for Britain over the next few years, will be whether or not it manages to escape from the disasters of the EU, whose never ending new rules and regulations stifle growth; and how and when the Euro falls apart. There is the potential for a much brighter future increasing our trade and business relationships with Asia and South America and, in particular, our Commonwealth partners. Even Germany is starting to realise what was warned at the Euro’s outset, that highly efficient and competitive economies cannot share a currency with less efficient and less competitive ones, without this leading to major economic and financial problems. The German medicine of trying to force major internal devaluation on the less competitive Southern Europe is already falling apart, as it grinds these economies into the dirt – and cannot succeed in a democratic context. The question will be whether or not a new currency order in Europe is introduced in an orderly fashion, or the breakup of the Euro is chaotic, with major short-term economic and financial damage. This is a matter of political will. Things can be kept afloat for a while longer by the ECB printing money, and directly or indirectly financing stricken EU banks and governments; although this may only worsen the longer-term financial mess. Both in Continental Europe and in the UK, central banks printing money to keep economies afloat must also surely lead, sooner or later, to a burst of inflation, as and when there is sufficient recovery for upward pressure on employment costs. It is an illusion that Central Banks could reverse all the additional money supply created by QE, by then selling huge quantities of government debt. The recent history of what UK companies have done with their cash resources tells it all; the financial surplus over the last decade of £367bn plus a further £95bn of new borrowings have all been deployed

overseas, accounted for by net overseas equity investments of £443bn. The truth is that at present Britain is not an attractive or adequately competitive place in which to do business – taxes and costs are too high, and regulations are too demanding and too obstructive. Business profits made in the UK are at their lowest share of GDP since 1984, while labour’s share of UKGDP has risen by 2.8% to 62.9% of GDP. The better picture for overall UK corporate profits is solely the result of the growth in more profitable overseas operations. Falling UK profits are the key reason why firms are not investing more in Britain. People are, effectively, being priced out of work. Our economy will not grow without investment and businesses will not invest until government has addressed the fundamental problems. Hopefully, in 10 years’ time, we will have got round to reducing the public sector to around 35% of GDP, lowering the tax burden, getting rid of damaging over regulation, simplifying the tax system, escaping from the burden of the EU and trading much more with the BRICS, and particularly with our Commonwealth partners, whose collective economies are now bigger than the EU and growing much faster. We also need a higher Savings Rate to finance more capital investment. The over indebted public cannot lead growth by yet more consumption – it has to come from rising exports and capital investment. But it looks like remaining a difficult period in the meantime.


…Britain is not an attractive or competitive place in which to do business…

Lord Flight

Conservative life peer Lord Flight was previously MP for Arundel and South Downs. From 1997 to 2005, he held several Shadow posts, including Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Shadow Paymaster General and Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He was raised to the peerage in 2010 as Baron Flight, of Worcester in the County of Worcestershire. Outside of politics, Lord Flight’s career has included time as co-founder and joint managing director, Guinness Flight Global Asset Management Limited and joint chairman at Investec Asset Management Limited. He is currently chairman of stockbrokers Arden Partners, senior non-executive director of Metro Bank, a director of Investec Asset Management, chairman/director of Aurora Investment Trust, two venture capital trusts and a number of other funds.  He is also a commissioner of the Guernsey Financial Services Commission.

7


Thinking beyond tomorrow

8


The future of capitalism -

east west? or

By Mark Field, MP for Cities of London and Westminster

9


Thinking beyond tomorrow

As we have all learned from the graveyard of failed forecasts, economics is an unerringly inaccurate, as well as a dismal, science. It is inextricably bound to the whims of irrational human behaviour. All too frequently, it follows that economies develop haphazardly and tend to reflect a nation’s collective ability to innovate and provide conditions in which the experience and aspiration of its people can flourish.  One of capitalism’s enormous strengths is its accommodation of human nature by the creation of broadly stable environments that liberate and incentivise people to pursue new ideas whilst casting aside defunct thinking. 

Across the Western world, continued political compromise and a desperate hope that ‘something will turn up’ are favoured over taking the immediate pain of radical restructuring Capitalism works because it adapts and adjusts through crisis. The real problem is that we in the West are now subverting its natural processes of correction by clinging to outdated, discredited ideas and institutions.  The US is currently stuck in political deadlock, seemingly too caught up in partisan wrangling over its budget deficit to provide the global leadership we have expected from it over the past century. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe has proved incapable of finding a credible solution to its own single currency crisis, and historically low interest rates in the UK reflect an economy still firmly on a life support machine.

10

Across the Western world, continued political compromise and a desperate hope that ‘something will turn up’ are favoured over taking the immediate pain of radical restructuring. As a result, the challenges we face appear simply too great to articulate for contemporary politicians at the mercy of short electoral cycles and restricted by conventional thinking.  But while we appear to have avoided financial disaster turning into economic catastrophe, there will also be long-term costs to be borne, largely by future generations.  The West’s financial woes have led to a comparative loss of global credibility. Undoubtedly, developed nations will find it increasingly difficult to maintain their role as directors of the world economy, as the composition and governance of international institutions no longer reflect reality. The G20, the ‘permanent five’ of the UN Security Council and the IMF may soon seem quaintly dated.  But my greatest concern is that the West will no longer seem the place where the world’s brightest and best see their future. When societies cling to conventional ideas that disproportionately benefit established generations, inevitably the number of losers begins to increase over time. The largest contingent of these must surely be amongst our young. As we are already witnessing across the European continent, youth unemployment is regarded as a price worth paying if it avoids unstitching the patchwork of entitlements and way of life that the post-war generations of citizens have taken for granted. As power shifts eastwards, the Asian economic powerhouses will not be immune from their own demographic problems. Nevertheless, unlike the West, they have an enormous advantage in being able to construct from scratch a welfare state fit for the 21st century without the need to battle against a morass of vested interest. 

If it comes to pass that Asia becomes the region that most welcomes fresh thinking, the contrast will be stark with a Western world that complacently harks back to historical dominance and fudges the important economic and political choices we now face.  Naturally the magnitude of the West’s difficulties is intimidating, and it would be naive for me to imply we face easy answers. After all, a crucial part of our future involves unraveling the past. Nevertheless, for a capitalist system to be successful and enjoy popular electoral support, it must ensure that it creates societies that liberate and incentivise people to pursue new ideas and cast aside defunct ones. Alongside the tackling of our structural problems, we must begin to articulate and embrace a fresh and positive vision of the future. This will involve a painful acceptance of marked, rapid decline in relative Western influence. Unless we face up to the challenge, we risk undermining the very compact upon which our capitalist economies are based.

Mark Field, MP for Cities of London and Westminster

A qualified solicitor, Mark practised as a corporate lawyer before becoming a director of his own employment agency, Kellyfield Consulting from 1994 until 2001. Mark was elected as the MP for the Cities of London and Westminster constituency in 2001 and is currently chairman of the All-Party Parliamentary Groups on Venture Capital and Private Equity. In September 2010, Mark was appointed by the Prime Minister to the prestigious Intelligence and Security Committee, chaired by Sir Malcolm Rifkind. He is the youngest MP serving on the committee, which oversees and scrutinises the work of Britain’s intelligence services.


“

“

Capitalism works because it adapts and adjusts through crisis

11


Thinking beyond tomorrow

12


From taxi-ing to take-off: let’s support UK aviation to

deliver jobs and

growth in tough economic times By Darren Caplan, chief executive of the Airport Operators Association

13


Thinking beyond tomorrow

Aviation is vital to UK plc; to trade, tourism and inward investment. Not only is it a key sector in its own right, responsible for around a million jobs, £50bn GDP and £8bn tax revenues, it also helps to deliver the connectivity, jobs and growth in the wider economy that the UK needs in these extremely tough economic times. Over the coming decade and beyond, aviation can assist in rebalancing the economy, and expanding tourism, sustainably; and we can deliver everimproving services to passengers. But unless, and until, the UK Government ensures we have lower taxes on flying and a fair framework for growth in the sector, these advances will not happen. Aviation taxes The UK has the highest levels of Air Passenger Duty (APD) in the world. The Chancellor increased APD by double the rate of inflation at the last Budget and it is set to go up by inflation year on year to 2015. Since 2007, APD has increased by between 160% and 360%, depending on short or long haul destinations. Because aviation plays such a key role in improving economic efficiency through trade, investment and improving connections between markets, if APD continues its upward path with increases of 5% a year, there could be as many as 250,000 fewer jobs created by 2030, and £10.6bn less Gross Value Added in terms of investment (according to the British Chambers of Commerce’s independent 2011 Oxera Study). In addition, 2012 is the year that aviation joins the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), meaning that in future years air passengers will be double taxed unless APD is reduced to accommodate the charge. Although the Airport Operators Association (AOA) supports EU ETS as the first step to a global deal on carbon emissions, analysts Standard & Poor’s has estimated that by 2020 EU ETS charges to passengers could be as high as €39 per person, adding yet another significant cost on air travel. Without reform, this ‘double taxation’ effect of APD and EU ETS will result in even more jobs, investment and revenue being exported overseas.

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Fair framework for growth Academic analysis suggests that in addition to its direct contribution, aviation has a wider effect in increasing economic efficiency. Faster travel times and a wider choice of routes can open up new markets. Lower transport costs and more rapid shipping of perishable goods helps companies specialise in what they do well, a key part of making economies more efficient. Aviation allows UK businesses to make and manage investments abroad as well as enabling wealth-creating inward investment.

Aviation is vital to UK plc; to trade, tourism and inward investment

Another key sector is tourism. The vast majority of international tourists visit the UK by air, and the tourism sector overall employs 2.5 million people, contributes upwards of £115bn GDP, and supports more than 200,000 businesses. Together this accounts for almost 10% of the UK economy. As the Prime Minister, David Cameron, pointed out, it has been estimated that a 0.5% increase in market share for the UK could create 50,000 new jobs. To enable sectors such as tourism to flourish, airports have a key role to play. They spread prosperity around the UK, and good air transport links are crucial to attracting foreign direct investment from around the globe. The majority of Europe’s top companies regularly say they consider transport links a key factor. Other evidence shows a tenth of potential inward investors specifically identified air links as being vital and a third of these decided against the UK on the basis that air links were inadequate. As the UK Government has itself recognised, the UK needs excellent aviation connectivity right across the country, including both vibrant point-to-point airports and sufficient world-class hub capacity, to link regional economies and to enable UK plc to compete in established and emerging overseas markets.

This means prioritising a favourable planning and regulatory regime and developing a bold aviation policy where new airport capacity is required, with a clear timetable for implementation. At the time of writing, the Government is delivering neither, hampering not just the development of aviation, but jeopardising UK infrastructure’s ability to deliver for the wider economy. Unsurprisingly, the AOA will continue to lobby for a bold aviation policy in the coming months and years. Sustainable aviation It would be impossible to look at the future of aviation without considering its impact on the environment. Aviation currently accounts for 1 to 2% of global carbon emissions. To meet concerns about future increases, the AOA supports the need for industry to play its part to deliver aviation growth sustainably. The Climate Change Committee concluded in 2009 that fuel efficiency and operational improvements are likely to result in a 30% reduction in the carbon intensity of air travel (for example carbon emissions per seat per kilometre) by 2050. In addition, sustainable biofuels could account for 10% of aviation fuel use in 2050. These forecasts underline the fact that the industry has already invested heavily in green technology. The Sustainable Aviation (SA) alliance, which brings together airport operators, airlines, aircraft manufacturers and air navigation service providers, has set out a CO2 road-map for change which shows how UK aviation can accommodate significant growth to 2050 without a substantial increase in absolute CO2 emissions. SA also supports the reduction of net CO2 emissions to 50% of 2005 levels through internationally agreed carbon trading. All this could be achieved through new technology and better air traffic management, even without aviation’s entry in to the EU ETS. Measures to reduce emissions from aircraft on the ground are already under way. The implementation of the Single European Sky initiative (known as SESAR) could also generate further environmental benefits by streamlining air traffic movements.


Better passenger experience In addition to sustainability, the aviation sector is ready to work with the UK Government on its plans to improve economic regulation to ensure a better passenger experience. We have pledged to work in partnership on the security and border control challenges but the UK Government needs to ensure the Border Force has the personnel and technological resources to deal with increasing passenger numbers in the years ahead. Summary Aviation has clearly demonstrated its commitment to sustainability and a better passenger experience. But the UK Government needs to step up to the plate and support aviation to ensure that the aviation industry can contribute even more than it does currently to help the UK deliver the jobs, growth, business, exports and investment we so desperately need in the next decade and beyond. It’s time UK aviation, and the economy it serves, moves from merely taxi-ing to take-off in the years ahead.

Darren Caplan, chief executive of the Airport Operators Association

Darren became chief executive of The Airport Operators Association in January 2011. He has 15 years’ experience in communications, public affairs and politics in a number of sectors, including infrastructure, planning and technology. Darren has worked for London-based public affairs and communications agencies, and his political experience includes working for the Conservative Party and standing as a parliamentary candidate in the 2010 General Election. 15


Thinking beyond tomorrow

16


Don’t stop

thinking

about

tomorrow... By Sarah O’Grady, social affairs correspondent at The Daily Express

17


Thinking beyond tomorrow

Rarely a month goes by without stories about pensions, in one form or another, making the headlines. This newsworthy and emotive subject is one which has an impact on us all, regardless of our age or employment status. For those approaching retirement, it is already too late to start thinking about how to fund those post-working days; they will simply have to do the best they can with a pension system buckling under pressure.

Pensions don’t just sustain pensioners; they improve quality of life for those on their way to pensionable age For those with many years left to work, most final salary schemes are closed to new members while many others have closed down. Private sector workers are disgruntled by public sector pension commitments while the young are equally disgruntled by their obligations to a rapidly expanding older population. For those that have made provision, pension pots have been damaged by stock market volatility of recent years and gilts are producing record low yields, so annuity rates continue to shrink. And even if you have a large enough pension pot to consider income drawdown, which involves leaving your pension fund invested and taking an income directly from it, you’ve also been hard hit. The amount you are allowed to take has shrunk anyway with falling gilt yields, and been further limited by recent government restrictions reducing the amount of drawdown that can be taken each year.

To cap it all, soaring inflation is steadily eroding the value of retirement income while any non-pension savings held in the bank are likely to be earning less than inflation and so also losing value in real terms. So how do we go about future-proofing upcoming generations of workers and pensioners? Given Britain’s ageing population as the babyboomer bulge approaches retirement age, plus our improving health and life expectancy, some radical rethinking is clearly needed around the whole issue of how we’re going to manage financially. We need change now and that change has to include a much-publicised message - the state pension is not going to be enough to pay the bills. Too many Britons are lulled into a false sense of security that ‘paying their stamp’ brings. They think the state pension, supplemented by a nest egg in the building society, is going to see them through a 25-year retirement.

The pensions industry should further develop innovative retirement income solutions to suit pensions of all sizes, with the emphasis on both security and income flexibility. The UK Government and the Financial Services Authority should take action to ensure that all pension holders select their retirement income from the open market as a matter of course, and that they are able to access affordable, independent guidance as part of the process. Government and industry should work to establish a more flexible, user-friendly approach to retirement saving that takes into account both ISAs and pensions. The benefits of auto-enrolment should be shouted from the rooftops by government, employers and pension bodies alike. Even if these reforms were introduced tomorrow, it is still up to the individual to take responsibility for their income in old age.

It is not, and they need to be told so. Repeatedly. Pensions don’t just sustain pensioners; they improve quality of life for those on their way to pensionable age. Knowing that there are secure provisions for old age enables all of us to lead a fuller life in the present. Future pension planning has to be centred around more long-term saving, an ‘open market’ when it comes to buying an annuity, better education about pensions; people recognising the need to ‘take ownership’ of their financial futures in a way that many don’t now; and new, more flexible retirement income products. The ideal future pension system has to take a more enlightened approach to pension income in the following respects:

So remember, as Cicero said: ‘Old age will only be respected if it fights for itself, maintains its rights, avoids dependence on anyone and asserts control over its own last breath.’

Sarah O’Grady, social affairs correspondent at The Daily Express

Sarah is the social affairs correspondent of The Daily Express, one of the UK’s bestselling national newspapers. Her particular areas of interest include the long-term future of social care and pension reform and the consequences of any failure to deal with these developing crises.

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Sarah, who has written two property books and is currently writing her first novel, is married to Stewart Jackson, Member of Parliament for Peterborough. They have a seven-year-old daughter who has already started saving for her retirement.


…the state pension is not going to be enough to pay the bills

19


Thinking beyond tomorrow

20


Ageing populations;

boom or bust? By Lord Filkin, CBE, chair of the committee on public service and demographic change

21


Thinking beyond tomorrow

Most developed countries are struggling with the effects of the global economic slowdown that followed the global financial meltdown. The economic slowdown has vastly worsened countries’ fiscal positions, tax revenues have fallen yet state expenditure has risen. The highly publicised consequences have been very large fiscal deficits leading to greatly increased borrowing to fund the ongoing deficits.

“

It is unlikely that the additional costs of an ageing society can be paid for by increased taxation if the economies of these countries are to be competitive

I believe that many countries will not get their spending into balance until the end of the decade and by then will have levels of state debts, which are unprecedented in peacetime. For the first time ever, there are major doubts about the sovereign debts of many G8 countries, worsened by the structural faults of the euro. Yet, as the IMF reported in 2009, both developed and emerging countries are facing substantial changes as a result of big demographic changes, falling birth rates and many people living much longer because of great improvements in healthcare and nutrition. These major demographic changes will affect their societies, economies, their public services and finances, yet the response of governments to this has been weak to date.

22

An increase in the older population affects the dependency ratio and increases the costs of pension, social care and healthcare. As a result, the costs of public services will rise greatly over the next decade and beyond and will, if left unaddressed, produce a big increase in state costs.

As part of this, governments and societies will need to consider the intergenerational effects. It is neither fair nor realistic to think that the younger population in work or employers will be able to pay for all the costs of a much larger and much older population.

Many states, even if they eventually succeed in getting their budget overspending in control, will be left by the end of the decade with massive levels of debt. With such high debts, there is little room to increase state borrowing to pay for the additional costs of ageing.

On the positive side, we all recognise that there are benefits in having more years of life, particularly if we have more healthy ones. But this will challenge not just our governments, but all of us as individuals and societies, to think how we manage the big social, economic and fiscal consequences of this great change.

What should be done? First of all, governments need to face this issue now, assess its significance and start a debate with their societies of what will need to change. This has not happened, and the reverse is occurring in some countries who want to pretend that the retirement age can fall, rather than accepting it will have to rise. It is unlikely that the additional costs of an ageing society can be paid for by increased taxation if the economies of these countries are to be competitive. So this means there will have to be a reconsideration of both what the state does and what individuals and families will do in the future. To most, it is apparent that if people are living much longer, they cannot expect to retire at the same age as their parents did, for who is going to pay for their pensions? So ensuring there will be work for older people will require a consideration of attitudes and labour market performance. Next, there are three big costs of an older population: healthcare, social care and income support. All states need to look at these in the round and rebalance them, with the state covering some risks and costs and individuals covering others.

Lord Filkin, CBE, chair of the committee on public service and demographic change

Geoffrey Filkin’s career has ranged from senior manager, policy maker, politician and government minister focusing on how to improve public services. He was a chief executive in local government and then chief executive officer of a national organisation representing local authorities to government. He was a government minister serving in the Home Office, the Department for Constitutional Affairs and the Department for Education. Geoffrey has an active role in the House of Lords and has promoted improvements to the way it scrutinises legislation. He is an adviser to several companies, a trustee for three charities and is an Honorary Fellow of the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply.


…governments need to face this issue now, assess its significance and start a debate

23


Thinking beyond tomorrow

24


And the learners

shall

inherit the earth By Jonathan Gillespie MA, head master of Lancing College

25


Thinking beyond tomorrow

When today’s graduates were entering primary school, many of the jobs they will be applying for did not exist, and it is highly likely the situation will be repeated when the reception pupils of 2012 graduate. The rapid socio-economic changes sweeping the globe mean that the education system is having to respond quicker than it has ever done in order to prepare today’s pupils to be tomorrow’s workforce. For me, the answer in how we do this lies in what has gone before. Although based around traditional values of education, a teacher’s aim in 2012, as it was in 1982 and as it should be in 2052, is to nurture and encourage our young people to discover their own strengths, interests and ambitions. Education must allow young people to enjoy learning and grow with confidence and self-esteem. We should encourage pupils to try everything and in doing so discover where their own unique strengths and interests lie. In saying that we need to look at what has gone before however, I am not suggesting that we hold onto traditional educational practices, as they are not necessarily relevant for the modern world. Instead, we need to focus on timeless values to provide a moral framework for life. It is about combining a value-rich education with modern skills and technology to equip young people for life and work in the world of the future. In essence, we have to prepare today’s youngsters for a world that does not yet exist. As Eric Hoffer said ‘In times of change learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists’. We need to teach our young people to be flexible and resilient and to also foster a lifelong love of learning. The search for knowledge is infinite. People are likely to learn as much, if not more, from 18 – 23 as they do from 13 – 18 (despite the teenage tendency to believe they know it all!). We need to ensure that youngsters have the drive to continue learning long after they have left the school. The increase in university tuition fees is likely to have a significant effect: I expect there to be a sea change in how higher / further education is viewed and

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undertaken. Many will take longer to decide what they want to study and have a more definite idea of what they want to achieve, especially as they will have to pay large sums of money for the privilege. I think this will lead to fewer people going straight to university from school and more taking time out to travel, work and broaden their minds before they decide what they want to study. This, in turn, will mean that universities will need to become more customer focused in ensuring they deliver value for money as well as results.

While advancements in technology have so many benefits, human interaction is being affected with wider social and intellectual consequences

They will also need to know how to communicate with people from across what is a rapidly shrinking world. Who would have thought many years ago that Spanish and Mandarin would today be amongst the most widely spoken languages? What will happen in another 40 years? We can’t predict the future or teach every spoken language, so we need to teach young people how to learn a language so that it comes naturally and they can then transfer that skill to learning a specific tongue as their career evolves. Of course, all of this relies on one thing: good teachers. High quality education should not, and cannot, be the preserve of the independent sector only. For too long, the teaching profession has been undervalued in the UK. We should be encouraging more graduates into teaching but the class of the degree should not be the sole factor in assessing suitability – genuine passion for the subject and the ability to communicate are equally important! We must never underestimate the importance of good teachers – the future is in their hands.

Our youngsters need to have self-confidence (but not arrogance!), resilience, self-esteem, integrity and self-discipline. All of these values will serve society as a whole and create the leaders we need for the future – whether they are in politics, business, arts or science, they all need to develop strong value-based leadership qualities. They need to understand the importance of communication in all its forms and not just via technology. While advancements in technology have so many benefits, human interaction is being affected with wider social and intellectual consequences. Humans are natural communicators but email, Facebook, Twitter, and the list goes on, have reduced the focus on face-to-face interaction that is vital to good leadership. Many forms of communication may be instant but youngsters need to learn that this can be counter-productive. They need to understand the importance of not responding with knee-jerk reactions and know how to step back, consider the issue, collect evidence and formulate a view, then respond with a logical explanation. Some decisions take time and for good reason.

Jonathan Gillespie MA, head master of Lancing College

In September 2006, Jonathan became the 18th head master of Lancing College, West Sussex, whose alumni include the playwright David Hare, author Tom Sharpe and lyricist Sir Tim Rice. He was educated at Bedford Modern School and Selwyn College Cambridge, where he read Modern and Medieval Languages, and completed his PGCE at Cambridge. Jonathan taught French and German at Highgate School, London for seven years, before being appointed head of modern languages at Fettes College, Edinburgh. For the five years prior to his appointment to Lancing, Jonathan was a boarding house master at Fettes.


…we have to prepare today’s youngsters for a world that does not yet exist

27


Thinking beyond tomorrow

28


A

global

passion By Duncan Revie, chief executive officer of Soccerex, the global convention for the football industry

29


Thinking beyond tomorrow

Football has come a long, long way since I had my first taste of the game almost 50 years ago. In 1963, my late father, former Leeds United and England manager Don Revie, took me to the Leeds ground at Elland Road. At the time, it was a dump but my father had a vision. ‘This is all going to change’, he said. He talked of executive boxes, suites and corporate functions, about the ground being used throughout the week and not just for a few hours at the weekend. And he was right; today, football is more than just a game of 11-a-side on a Saturday afternoon. It is a 24/7 global business (worth over €12 bn in Europe alone), its top players commanding multi-million pound salaries and the likes of Beckham, Messi and Ronaldo revered on the same footing as Hollywood film stars.   Football is big business. According to recent studies, investments for the 2014 FIFA World Cup should inject more than £52 bn into the Brazilian economy. It’s a sport which brings people together. Soccerex, which was established in 1996, is a conference, networking event, exhibition and football festival all rolled in one. The level of business done through last year’s Soccerex Global Convention is estimated to be in excess of £250 million, with 73% of delegates who attended expecting to generate business from it. For us, football has become a global business. In its 17 year life span, Soccerex has hosted 27 events over five continents and become the sport’s biggest B2B gathering point. The next Soccerex Global Convention takes place in Rio de Janeiro in November 2014 and in the run up we will also host conventions, forums and seminars in Durban, Lagos and Manchester.   While it’s hard to predict where football will be in the next 15 – 20 years, there is no doubt that the sport will see many changes.  Personally, I believe that player wages will need to

30

come under control but supply and demand means this may not happen. Football is religious – it has nothing to do with common sense or how business is run. People are happy to pay the prices to watch the games because football is engraved into our English culture.

We have the most successful league, but we don’t dominate in the way we like to think we do, despite the whole world trying to copy the UK model

While I think the quality of the product will continue, I do believe that in the future we will have a European super league and the 92 league clubs in England will be brought down to a more manageable number.   We have the most successful league, but we don’t dominate in the way we like to think we do, despite the whole world trying to copy the UK model. There will be a lot more inward investment into the UK clubs – it’s an incredible world market and people are getting excited by the commercial and future prospects.   I also predict that the contentious subject of goal line technology will be finally resolved in the near future, which I am sure will be warmly welcomed by fans all over the world.   Another big growth area in football will be training but I suspect that not all so called ‘new’ training methods will be as revolutionary as they may seem - in 1964, my father brought in a ballet dancer to help improve balance and flexibility! But we need to make sure that football doesn’t forget its roots. Some changes have benefits. The pitches, for example, are better which has made the game quicker - when Ronaldo gets a ball on a wing,

you can’t touch him; it would be different if he was on a horrid muddy pitch. But the game has become less physical. The ability to tackle from behind has been virtually eliminated, but they shouldn’t take tackling out of it.   Like the game itself, Soccerex has a bright future ahead. Over the next 20 years, we will travel the world. We’ve already signed for Manchester 2014-2017 and are in discussion with Qatar for 2018-2021 and so the route map is clear. What we’ve done is create a brand which attracts the football world.    That approach reflects what FIFA, for all the criticism it receives, is doing, hence its decisions to go to South Africa, Russia and Qatar. If we look back 20 years, no-one would have believed that countries such as the Ivory Coast and Trinidad and Tobago would not only qualify for the World Cup but be competitive. Watch out for India and China!   www.soccerex.com/global

Duncan Revie, chief executive officer of Soccerex, the global convention for the football industry

In 1995, while attending ‘In the City’, a business event for the music industry, Duncan Revie and his wife Rita saw the opportunity to do the same for the football industry. Duncan, son of the late, great England and Leeds United manager, Don Revie, combined his football roots with the vast hospitality experience that he and Rita shared to host the first Soccerex Convention in 1996.  Now, 16 years, five continents and 21 events later, Soccerex has firmly established itself as the leading provider of business events for the global football community. In 2014, the Soccerex Global Convention will return home with the event moving to Manchester, the club capital of the world, until 2017.


Football is religious – it has nothing to do with common sense

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

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The

families of

tomorrow By Dr Katherine Rake, OBE, chief executive officer Family and Parenting Institute

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

‘It will be years before a woman either leads the Conservative Party or becomes prime minister. I don’t see it happening in my time.’ Margaret Thatcher 1970.1 Issuing predictions about the future is a notoriously risky endeavour, famously tripping up many a politician and social commentator. But when it comes to family life, it is absolutely critical to take this risk and to think beyond the families of today to the needs of families tomorrow.

The fact that thriving families are an economic asset is something which companies are increasingly recognising when it comes to their own productivity

The family is a crucial lens through which we should look to gain a better understanding of wider social and economic change. Looking back to the social revolutions of the past half a century, it is clear that many were driven by seismic shifts in British family life. Amongst these shifts were; increased maternal labour market participation (which tripled since 1951)2, rising levels of co-habitation and separation (the percentage of UK households classified as single parents with dependent children doubled between 1971 and 20083) and women postponing childbirth until later in life. The changes taking place over the lifetime of the baby boomers still have far-reaching implications for today’s society and economy. Living together and apart So when we think about the society of tomorrow, we would do well to consider some key family trends on the horizon. Already, only 16% of families today think they conform to the model of the traditional ‘nuclear’ family, and it seems likely that British families will only look more diverse in the future.4 New technologies and changes to legislation are opening up family life to different groups (in particular same

34

sex adoption and reproductive technologies) and are giving rise to new family forms and parenting arrangements. Meanwhile, the movement towards smaller family units and an ageing population is creating families which are more vertical than horizontal – giving rise to the term ‘beanpole families’. Whereas the past 100 years has tended to see fewer generations living together under one roof, this is not necessarily a permanent change. For a range of social and economic reasons, young people are now taking longer to leave the family home (in 2006, 58% of males and 39% per cent of females aged 20-24 were still living in the family home, compared to 50% and 32% in 1991.)5 The idea of the ‘boomerang generation’ – adult children who leave home only to return due to economic pressures - has also been identified as a growing phenomenon. Future-proofing provision Understanding the needs of families is essential for ‘future-proofing’ public services and our infrastructure. Governments have always understood that birth rates and demographic trends have a direct effect on the provision of school places and higher education. Similarly, trends around longevity, ageing and informal care in the family will shape demand on social care services. There is a clearly identifiable link between fluctuations in family demographics and the pressures on services and infrastructure, but sometimes the relationship may work the other way around with resource limitations shaping the decisions we make about family life. For example, a lack of housing supply or affordability may lead to constraints on family relationships, perhaps in terms of committing to marriage or starting a family, but also in terms of freedom to leave a relationship.6

part in meeting this ‘care deficit’. By 2035, the number of over-85s will be 2.5 times greater than in 2010, with this group making up 5% of the total UK population.7 If the proportion of older people requiring care remains constant, then the numbers receiving care from spouses or partners may more than double by 2041, and the number receiving care from adult children increase by 90%.8 Families as a resource Families are an important resource and a driver of future economic growth. Families make a range of irreplaceable contributions to society. The provision of care for the young and for older people is just one obvious dimension of this; for example, several years ago, one estimate put the value of grandparental childcare as being some £3.9 bn.9 The fact that thriving families are an economic asset is something which companies are increasingly recognising when it comes to their own productivity, as many seek to introduce family friendly working practices. Research from the British Chambers of Commerce found that 58% of small to medium sized enterprises reported improvement in productivity as a result of introducing flexible working.10 Given the scale of care deficit they will face, it is highly likely that the families of the future will demand family friendly working from their employers as standard. The evidence suggests that it would be in the economic interests of the UK to provide it.

Families as ‘shock-absorbers’ Families are a key part of building and sustaining resilience. They manage and mediate macro-pressures, acting as the ‘shock absorbers’ of our society.

Policymakers and politicians are increasingly sensitised to the role which the family plays in driving growth and addressing social problems. In the wake of the summer disturbances in the UK last summer, David Cameron gave voice to this view in stark terms: ‘if we want to have any hope of mending our broken society, family and parenting is where we’ve got to start.’11 Certainly, helping families in the here and now is a good place to start if we want to build a positive future.

The coming decades will see the UK’s health and social care systems being hit by unprecedented levels of demand, and families will need to play a

The Family and Parenting Institute will be initiating a wide-ranging programme of research on ‘Future Families’ over the coming year.


Dr Katherine Rake, OBE, chief executive officer Family and Parenting Institute

Katherine is chief executive of the Family and Parenting Institute, which is an independent charity that exists to make the UK a better place for families and children. FPI runs the Family Friendly scheme and works with charities, businesses and public services to offer practical help to families.   She was previously chief executive of the Fawcett Society and lecturer in Social Policy at the London School of Economics, during which time she was seconded to the Cabinet Office.   Katherine has advised the Prime Minister’s Policy Unit, HM Treasury and other government departments. She is also a regular broadcaster and contributor to a wide range of print media.   In 2008, Katherine was awarded an OBE for services to equal opportunities and given an Institute of Directors ‘Good Director’ honour.

1 Quotation from a profile of Margaret Thatcher on Number 10 Downing Street ‘The Official Site of the Prime Minister’s Office’ www.number10.gov.uk past-primeministers/margaret-thatcher-2/. 2 Hunt, S. (ed) (2009) Family Trends: British families since the 1950s, Family and Parenting Institute. 3 Office for National Statistics, Social Trends 39 (2009) www.statistics.gov.uk downloads/theme_social/Social_Trends39/Social_Trends_39.pdf. 4 Centre for the Modern Family (2012), Family: Helping to understand the modern British family. 5 Office for National Statistics, Social Trends 37: 2007 edition (London: ONS, 2007), www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_social/Social_Trends37 Social_ Trends_37.pdf. 6 Shelter (2010) Attitudes to housing affordability. London: Shelter. 7 Office for National Statistics (2012) Focus on Older People. 8 Pickard, L. (2008) Informal Care for Older People Provided by Their Adult Children: Projections of Supply and Demand to 2041 in England, Report to the Strategy Unit (Cabinet Office) and the Department of Health. PSSRU Discussion Paper 2515, citing Wittenberg R, Pickard L, Malley J, King D, Comas-Herrera A, Darton R (2007) Future Demand for Social Care, 2005 to 2041: Projections of Demand for Social Care for Older People in England. Report to the Strategy Unit (Cabinet Office) and the Department of Health. PSSRU Discussion Paper 2514. 9 Age Concern, The Economy and Older People (London: Age Concern, 2004). 10 British Chambers of Commerce (2007) Work and Life: How Business is striking the right balance. 11 David Cameron’s Speech on 15th August 2011 www.number10.gov.uk/news/ pms-speech-on-the-fightback-after-the-riots/

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

36


The

bigger

picture By Mark Littlewood, director general of the Institute of Economic Affairs

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

The world is seeing changes at a speed that many would never have predicted. That brings benefits but it also creates challenges. Governments have a mountain to climb to balance the needs and wants of their citizens with the cost of providing services. That mountain is set against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and constant talk of continued recession. We seem to think that banking needs to be heavily regulated, yet on some measurements, it’s the first or second most regulated industry in the UK. I don’t think it would be wrong to predict that we are destined to repeat the mistakes of 2008 with even worse results.

By 2032, it will seem inconceivable to many people that we ever provided services the way we do at the moment

Irrespective of the present economic difficulties, although compounded by them, there has, in recent years, been a shift in power from west to east and I don’t see that changing. For all the many issues they have faced, China and India recognise that the state should only spend around a quarter of GDP, which in part explains the growth they have experienced. In the West, it’s typical for public spending to be around 45% of GDP and there can be little doubt that the future will belong to those countries who keep government spending at around 25%. We are on the cusp of a massive transfer of power from west to east and it’s possible that in just 20 years’ time, China will have replaced the USA at the top. In order to reduce spending, the West may need to learn lessons from the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and rapidly change the way in which the state provides its services, in particular health and education. Government will become a facilitator rather than a provider, it won’t employ professionals but direct people to private providers. By 2032, it will seem inconceivable to many people that we ever

38

provided services the way we do at the moment. It’s likely that health and education services will be dispersed over a number of locations. Rather than going to one building for education, there will be small centres of excellence and it will be for parents to take control over which subjects are studied and for how long. It will be a pick and mix menu and it’s likely that it will include elements of home schooling as this is predicted to become more popular. It’s also possible that schools won’t close their doors in the evenings or for long stretches over the summer, but will provide a more rounded educational service to communities not merely to enrolled students. Any thoughts of the future can’t ignore the impact that technology has had on society. We are now a 24/7 society, able to communicate with anyone, anywhere in the world, at any time of the day or night. The 9am – 5pm job is a dying concept and in order to manage the work/life balance, employers and employees will become increasingly flexible.

different parts of the world without obviously calling anywhere home. But what does that mean for those on lower incomes, those who are dependent on welfare? In 20 years, GDP will have doubled so they will still be provided for but I do predict a move towards greater self-reliance and the need to stand on their own two feet. A society in which truly vast swathes of people qualify for some form of state support or another will be a thing of the past. As already predicted with health and education, the vast majority of adults will need to be more selfreliant and have greater control of their own destinies.

This again will impact education because if hours for adults change, then it’s inevitable that the hours for the children will as well. Schools will be become more like companies, open for business throughout the year and judged and remunerated based on their results. A shift towards individuals having more responsibility has already started to happen in health. We now have drop-in centres where people go of their own volition rather than being told to. Health professionals will also have different challenges to face. I predict that there will be a massive culture shift with the use of recreational drugs. That shift will take us out of our current comfort zone. By 2032, nearly all recreational drugs will be legal and available to purchase on the high street. Modest drug use will become the norm and it will partly replace drinking alcohol. By 2032, the distribution of wealth will be even more polarised. The gap between the wealthy and the poor has been steadily growing wider in the West since the 1960s and that will continue. The middle classes will have more opportunities and more people will choose how much time they spend in

Mark Littlewood, director general of the Institute of Economic Affairs

Mark is the Institute of Economic Affairs’ director general. He was educated at Balliol College, Oxford, where he read philosophy, politics and economics. Since 1995, Mark has worked in political communications, public relations and public affairs. In 2001, he became campaigns director for the human rights group Liberty, leaving in 2004 to found NO2ID, the group opposed to identity cards and the database state. From December 2004 to May 2007, Mark was head of media for the Liberal Democrats and in 2007, he co-founded Progressive Vision, a classical liberal think tank, and was its communications director until November 2009.


The 9am – 5pm job is a dying concept

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

40


Tomorrow

and

tomorrow and

tomorrow‌ By Marc Reeves, publisher, TheBusinessDesk.com, West Midlands, and partner at RJF Public Affairs

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

The extent and the pace of change in the media over the past five years has been remarkable – and there’s more to come. The changes so far have called into question the very nature of the roles of those of us who have known no other industry, because technological advances have allowed anyone to join ‘the media club’. We journalists went for years thinking we were special – the sacred guardians of a mysterious priesthood called the ‘freedom of the press’. Now all we have is 100 words per minute shorthand to distinguish us from the armies of bloggers and tweeters.

...it’s wishful thinking that half the newspaper titles that exist now will still be around in print form in five years’ time...

In what some of my friends still call ‘the good old days’, the astronomical cost of production kept ownership of the media in the hands of the few – hence Murdoch’s dominance across the TV and print spectrum. But now it’s just down to what you’ve got to say and how well you say it – and Murdoch’s retreat is due as much to this as anything that’s emerged through Leveson. I think it’s wishful thinking that half the newspaper titles that exist now will still be around in print form in five years’ time – particularly in the regional press. Nationally, the industry has kidded itself that it has a viable business model, while all along most titles are vanity projects owned by billionaires with agendas. Very few of these subsidised playthings could stand on the back of their own P&Ls. As contraction bites, more readers and advertisers will pull a few lucky (or canny) titles over the digital fence, while the printed products that remain will become the media equivalent of those ‘artisan breads’ so valued by the middle classes who indulge

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themselves on a Saturday morning with a visit to the farmers’ market and a chai latte. I suspect that even these will be delivered by specialist producers, and not the publishers themselves.

And with more and more TV recorded – enabling viewers to skip through whole segments of ads – advertisers will need to become much smarter at how they get their message over.

Simple paywalls cannot be the answer, either. While experiencing some successes, the money raised by The Times through its paywall foray raises barely enough to pay for the features writers’ expense accounts, let alone the whole business. With only room for one paywall in each subsector of online media, other outlets will need to increasingly look at different ways of making money, and the app model will dominate. Every version will be ‘lite’ rather than fully paid for. The real revenue will come from in-app purchasing, through which you’ll be offered added value services and products.

To get any kind of attention, advertisers are going to have to deliver stuff that’s so customised and individual, just as your browsing experience is with websites.

On TV, the very concept of the channel will be shattered as on-demand TV over the internet bypasses the schedules, further driving the networks to invent reality shows that can ride social media engagement to satisfy advertisers. Just 20 years ago, you had entrenched channel loyalty (‘oh, we’re a BBC house’). Now I barely know what channel’s programmes I’m watching on catch up. This challenges the traditional advertising business model too, when viewers fast-forward through the breaks. Social media and context-driven bespoke advertising will become more prevalent. As a viewer, you will programme your own evening’s viewing, combining live or nearly live current TV with your latest Netflix choices as well as trusty repeats you’ve archived as online box sets. You will have told your TV which sports and news subjects you’re interested in, and whether to alert you or schedule them in on the hour. Your TV will fish from local and global content to deliver video and text packages appropriate for your interests - from local papers, national bloggers to global business data services, all will be delivered between the end of West Wing series three and the start of Liverpool vs Milan in 3D.

With internet TV, they’ll be pushing messages subliminally. As you’re watching a programme and you see a product you like within the programme, someone’s shoes in a sitcom, perhaps, you will be able to hover over them and it’ll sell you the shoes; that will become very common very, very quickly. There will be a backlash against the corporate giants of Google and Facebook as they increasingly try to own both the messages and the habits of their consumers. There will be a shift from media owners to content owners. Channel owners are the middlemen who will be pushed out just like record labels and book and newspaper publishers.

Marc Reeves, publisher, TheBusinessDesk.com, West Midlands, and partner at RJF Public Affairs

Marc joined TheBusinessDesk.com in January 2010 as launch editor of its West Midlands service. He is now publisher of TheBusinessDesk.com in the West Midlands, and has separately launched RJF Public Affairs, a political communications consultancy. Previously, he was editor of The Birmingham Post and has held senior editorial and management posts in the regional press across the UK. At The Birmingham Post, he spearheaded the development of its online services and social media, and played an integral part in the brand becoming one of the most well-regarded online names in the regional press. Birmingham-born, Marc is active in the civic life of the city through his membership of the Lunar Society and involvement in many other organisations and boards.


Advertisers will pay using an internet model, targeting only those demographics they’re interested in - even if that means reaching five global CEOs with a specific message about a Davos report. What does this all mean? Google will own the advertising delivery mechanisms, Facebook the social engagement tools, cable companies will own the delivery mechanisms, and Apple may dominate the in-home hardware and even some of the content delivery systems. TV ‘channels’ will be eclipsed by Apple, Netflix, LoveFilm and cable firms such as Virgin. All these players will start to resemble each other as they scramble to dominance in the whole viewer value chain. 

The media is facing a very interesting future.

We journalists went for years thinking we were special

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

44


Travelling

towards a

safer future By Edmund King, Automobile Association president, visiting professor of transport, Newcastle University and director of the AA Charitable Trust for Road Safety and the Environment

45


Thinking beyond tomorrow

Road crashes are the number one killer of young people worldwide. More than one million people die on the world’s roads every year and 50 million more are injured – literally every six seconds, someone is killed or maimed on the world’s roads. Casualties from wars in Iraq or Afghanistan might make the headlines but far more people are killed on our roads then in wars. Indeed young soldiers are generally more at a risk from a roadside car crash than from a roadside bomb. Road crashes are a global epidemic. Road traffic injuries are becoming one of the world’s leading causes of death and disability, comparable to such killers as HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The human cost is horrific and brings immense grief and hardship to millions. The economic cost is a staggering USD100 bn a year in developing countries alone. The statistics of this hidden killer are grim but we should have hope because we know how to prevent and reduce such deaths and injuries. From experience in the UK, we know that basic tools such as seatbelts and helmets can make a great difference. We know that introducing breathalysers and enforcing drink drive limits or reducing speeding, saves lives. We have the knowledge and expertise to build safer roads and safer vehicles. In the UK, we have some of the safest roads in the world and yet approximately 2,000 people die on our roads each year. But the risk of death teenagers face in cars compared to higher-profile threats, such as drugs, drinking and gun or knife crime, is underestimated by 90% of drivers in the UK according to a AA/Populus poll of 18,500 young people. Road crashes are the

46

number one cause of ‘accidental’ death amongst those aged between 10 and 24 in the UK. I have been an active supporter of the FIA Foundation’s Make Roads Safe campaign and am delighted that the concept is now adopted in the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety, launched in the UK and across the world on 11 May 2011. The initiative is symbolised by a yellow road safety tag, which is intended to become the road safety equivalent of the iconic red ribbon for HIV/AIDS or the white wristband worn in the fight against global poverty.

The AA is also working closely with Zenani Mandela Campaign, which is supporting the UN’s Decade of Action for Road Safety. Zenani, the great granddaughter of Nelson Mandela, was killed in a car crash just two days after her 13th birthday as she returned home from the FIFA World Cup Kick Off concert in Soweto in June 2010. In July 2012, the two organisations joined forces to highlight a Young Drivers at Risk report, which was launched at the Silverstone Classic by Formula 1 legend Nigel Mansell, who is a member of the Commission for Global Road Safety.

With this commitment from the UN and leading charities and organisations, now really is the time for governments worldwide to stop the talking and start taking action to reduce the global road carnage and really begin to make roads safe.

Globally the Decade of Action for Road Safety could save five million lives and prevent 50 million serious injuries. To support this ambitious objective, the United Nations Road Safety Collaboration has developed a global plan for the Decade of Action. The plan, which is endorsed by more than 100 governments, includes safer roads, safer vehicles, safe road users and improving post-crash emergency response and trauma care. It has also been given support by a number of celebrities and high profile figures around the world, including actress Michelle Yeoh who is Make Roads Safe’s global ambassador; former US President Bill Clinton; Bob Geldof; Burmese activist Aung San Suu Kyi; Earth Institute director Jeffery Sachs and the Ghana national football team.

The global plan for the Decade of Action can be found at www.who.int/roadsafety/ decade_of_action/plan/en/index.html

In the UK, we have some of the safest roads in the world and yet approximately 2,000 people die on our roads each year

For further information and resources or to purchase a yellow tag visit www. decadeofaction.org and www. makeroadssafe.org


Edmund King, Automobile Association president, visiting professor of transport, Newcastle University and director of the AA Charitable Trust for Road Safety and the Environment

Edmund is currently president of the Automobile Association but his previous roles include committee secretary for the Social Science Research Council, working for a government department in Whitehall, a broadcaster in Los Angeles and time in public relations for a wine company in Burgundy and the motor industry in California. He is visiting professor of transport at Newcastle University and director and trustee of the AA Charitable Trust for Road Safety and the Environment. A Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Public Relations, Edmund has also worked as campaigns co-ordinator for the British Road Federation and more recently for RAC and the RAC Foundation.

“

“

We have the knowledge and expertise to build safer roads and safer vehicles

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

48


The Third Age –

enjoyment, not endurance By Professor Janet Lord BSc, PhD, professor of immune cell biology, director MRC-ARUK Centre for Musculoskeletal Ageing Research and director of the Medawar Centre for Healthy Ageing Research 49


Thinking beyond tomorrow

Our research here at the University of Birmingham centres on improving later life; there’s always this negative view about the ageing population, but we know enough through biomedical research to really tackle many of the problems that accrue with old age. Our belief is you shouldn’t see ageing as a wholly negative prospect. It is becoming clear that most of the health problems of old age stem from only a few causal factors. One such factor is inflammation; the other is the reduced ability to cope with stress. Understanding and overcoming these two aspects of ageing we believe will improve the health of a significant number of older adults.

There now seems to be this realisation amongst health care professionals, and to some extent in government, that old age doesn’t have to be one spent in ill health When it comes to old age, humans are quite unique – none of the higher primates are like us in that we feel we have to slow down as we get older – time to sit down, put the slippers on and take it easy. But this is where the problem lies. Having a sedentary lifestyle increases the levels of inflammation that can lead to the onset of certain conditions including heart disease, dementia and loss of muscle and bone. Our research shows that inflammation is five times higher in an older person who has a sedentary lifestyle compared to someone who is only moderately active. Increased car use and more hours watching TV are big factors in creating a more sedentary lifestyle. To reduce the risk, you don’t have to do lots of exercise, but doing nothing is what is going to kill you, even a 20 minute walk to get your newspaper will make a difference. On top of that if you have a life changing event – you lose your loved one, fall and fracture your hip or

50

become a carer for your partner – then all those increase stress and the creation of ‘stress hormones’. We can cope with these events when we are young, but as you get older you cope less well as you lose your ability to make the counter stress hormones. You still make stress hormones which have negative effects on many aspects of health, but you can’t counterbalance the stress with counter stress hormones, due to a process called the adrenopause. Until recently, we did not really know how something like a psychological stress (e.g. bereavement) could affect the body in a negative way, leading to depression, infections and general ill health. The attitude was that people in these situations should ‘just pull themselves together’ but we now know that for older adults the adrenopause has a real impact on the body and there’s a difference between what you can cope with when you’re young and your tolerance when you’re old. That’s the bad news; the good news is we can do something about it. On the practical side that requires no drugs, people can increase their physical activity as this reduces inflammation and also reduces the levels of stress hormones. That doesn’t mean you suddenly have to start running marathons or playing squash; simple, seated strength resistance exercises will have a positive effect on well-being and physical ability (so reducing risk of falls) and just 20 minutes walking at a good pace will have real benefits for reducing inflammation. Also ensuring that an older person is not socially isolated is important, simply visiting someone who’s bereaved or incapacitated will reduce the risk of depression and ill health. We are also tackling the issue of stress and ill health head on with drugs as it is possible to give the counter stress hormone DHEA as a tablet. We have applied for money to give this to patients after hip fractures to improve their recovery - as it’s a very cheap hormone, just £7 a week to treat a patient, it may represent a very cheap alternative to spending weeks in hospital. But what if you can’t move? We’re currently looking at ways to work around that by liaising with the

military medical staff at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital who are caring for the personnel coming back from Afghanistan. We are testing if we can use electrical and magnetic stimulation of the muscles to mimic the movement to stop the muscle from wasting. Could we do that in the elderly as well? I do think there’s going to be an absolute step change in our thinking about old age. Give it 10 years and I think many of our older people will be in better shape, having fewer falls and fewer infections but the key to that reduction is doing something about it now. There now seems to be this realisation amongst health care professionals, and to some extent in government, that old age doesn’t have to be one spent in ill health. Through our research, we want to make sure old age is enjoyed and not endured. Old age isn’t about the end of healthy life. If you take an active approach, ensuring you are fit for old age, then it will give you a much better chance of enjoying that Third Age. In the long term, ensuring our older adults enter and then spend old age in good health will save money and it makes a lot of sense. It’s not a difficult sum to do; a frail older person will cost a darn sight more than a fit one. It’s a step change, and I think it will happen.


…there’s always this negative view about the ageing population

Professor Janet Lord BSc, PhD, professor of immune cell biology, director MRC-ARUK Centre for Musculoskeletal Ageing Research and director of the Medawar Centre for Healthy Ageing Research

Janet is director of the MRC-ARUK Centre for Musculoskeletal Ageing Research and the Medawar Centre for Healthy Ageing Research. She is also non-clinical lead for the University of Birmingham’s Centre for Translational Inflammation Research at the new Queen Elizabeth Hospital. Her research focuses on the innate immune system, the body’s frontline defence against infection, and how the efficiency of this system is affected by ageing and stress. She has published more than 140 research papers and gives frequent talks at scientific meetings and to the general public. She is also involved in research strategy formulation in the area of human ageing at national and European level. 51


Thinking beyond tomorrow

52


An entrepreneur’s

perspective By Stanley J Smith, Scott Farms International chief executive officer

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

With the eyes of world upon us during the London 2012 Olympic Games, it was a great opportunity for the rest of the globe to witness all that is good about our great country, an opportunity that was brilliantly seized upon and organised with the execution right out of the top drawer. Within this framework, the athletes delivered the stuff of legends and the nation was with them every emotional step of the way through some failures, near misses as well as the outright and, in some cases, unexpected victories. What joy, but with a job very well done, the real tasks now lay ahead; to sustain the momentum for future success built upon sound investment and solid foundations, and to ensure that there is always a solid sustainable structure in place to continue building and allow us to be even more successful in the future. By its very nature, true business entrepreneurship is all about seeing and seizing the opportunity first, then looking at what needs to done to clear the path, chart the course and then make it happen in such a way that sets a future for building long term sustainable growth. The emerging economies have understood this very well but we in the UK must remain the example for them to emulate. Whether we like it or not, the market of supply and demand drives all economic activity. Globally we still need time to unwind the current issues that continue to overshadow us like a giant cloud and the lack of sustainable confidence hangs like the sword of Damocles over innovation and creative risk. True entrepreneurial spirit and innovation are central to the recovery of the western economies and as such have nothing to do with speculators and amateur chancers who jump on bandwagons only for short term gain. After all, it was this that led us to the crunch from which we have yet to recover. It is time for European and world leaders to cease with the politics of appeasement, grasp the nettle and do

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what so obviously is needed to be done to stabilise the current situation to enable innovation and enterprise to once again begin to flourish, both at home and globally. In retail and in the fresh produce industry, there is a long history of innovation. The sector is known for its ability to react to consumer trends, however, it has throughout the current economic environment, needed to be even more innovative to survive and indeed flourish and as such create the trends, thus reducing the reactionary cycle.

Consumers’ mind-sets need to change – after all, there’s nothing more convenient and good value than fresh fruit and vegetables.

The rise in organics is a good example, although I believe that this market sector is already approaching maturity. A completely truly sourced and produced, traceable organic product remains very expensive and generally uneconomic to produce, and some foods labelled as organic are not 100%. Accordingly, at the present and in the foreseeable future, organic produce has only a part to play in a wider drive for better quality, sustainable food. We regularly hear in the news how poor western diets are, and the recent achievements of our athletes has been built on a healthy diet that enabled the capability to train hard. Healthy food has to be readily available at a price that consumers can afford and as such, we need to find quick and easy ways of preparing that food to suit today’s busy lifestyles. Convenience food definitely has its place, but not in the way we currently recognise. For example, sweet potatoes, which Scott Farms imports into the UK, are a great convenience food, quick and easy to prepare and cook, very versatile and above all highly nutritious. But because they don’t come in lots of colourful packaging, consumers don’t see this.

Consumers’ mind-sets need to change – after all, there’s nothing more convenient and good value than fresh fruit and vegetables. Accordingly, there needs to be a greater and more innovative drive for consumer awareness, education and responsibility about the need to be, and remain, healthy. We need to create a legacy that will also be passed on to benefit and sustain our children. The approach is the same, whether it’s organising a successful Olympics with ongoing benefits, creating an economic environment for sustainable wealth creation or just understanding the value of a healthy sustainable food supply chain; if you don’t get the basics right then everything else will always struggle. With immediate effect, the UK government needs to cease the politics of appeasement and grasp the opportunity from the restored national pride derived from our Olympic success. They need to build on the example of London 2012 to take the initiative and build upon this over the next four to five years. Over the next 10 years, global economies, large and small, will need to focus on their own inherent value. That value comes from what they create, service and are able to profitably trade. True wealth creation has to once again be underpinned by the creation of genuine goods and tradable services.

Stanley J Smith, Scott Farms International chief executive officer

Stanley is a director and international CEO of Scott Farms, the major importer of sweet potatoes into the UK and Continental Europe.    Responsible for strategic development and coordination of financial controls for both the US and international business, Stanley has more than 35 years’ industry experience. In 1982, he started Harris & Smith Produce Sales and Fast Fresh Distribution and, following the sale of his companies in 1994, he developed several businesses within the financial services sector. His connection with Scott Farms began in 2006 when he met the Scott family, who were looking to set up the international business.


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True business entrepreneurship is all about seeing and seizing the opportunity

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

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London’s

Olympic legacy

By Clive Dutton, OBE, executive director, regeneration and inward investment,  London Borough of Newham

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

The legacy of the London Olympics will be so much more than the final medals table and the fabulous sporting facilities such as the Velodrome, Aquatics Centre and Olympic Stadium. In the next 10 to 20 years, cities around the world may well be adopting two key initiatives born from the £22bn regeneration of the 2012 Olympic host, the London Borough of Newham. The transformation of one of the most deprived areas in the UK will include the creation of 62,000 jobs and 40,000 new homes by 2025. The reason why London won the bid to host the 2012 Olympics was because it had compelling proposals for the regeneration of East London. It was a very powerful narrative – here was one of the poorest parts of the United Kingdom and, within a generation, the quality of life indicators for East London would match or exceed those for the London average.

The most successful cities in the world will have a very fast and serendipitous approach to how they enable economic development The Olympics has fast-forwarded what needed to happen by 20 years. The area in East London has already seen a great deal of change; £1bn has been spent on rail infrastructure; the new £1.5bn Westfield Stratford shopping centre is open, creating 8,000 jobs; the River Thames has a new cable car crossing and Newham Borough now has the most comprehensive and fastest broadbrand infrastructure in the world.

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The scale of what is going on is akin to creating a new city within a capital city. One of the biggest legacies of the Olympics is the regeneration of the previously redundant Royal Docks, now an enterprise zone. New innovations to urban regeneration are emerging, one is a new pragmatism to respond quickly to the needs of young creative entrepreneurs; another is perhaps other cities’ adoption of Newham’s ‘Meanwhile London’ programme. The most successful cities in the world will have a very fast and serendipitous approach to how they enable economic development, and those cities that can grasp that and respond, will do best. The future of the nation will be dependent on young creative entrepreneurs to totally realise, even exceed, their aspirations; they need a 24/7 funky environment but also a landscape where they can do things very quickly – if they win a contract, they might want to knock down a wall for a few more people to join them. The days of Grade A accommodation that takes years to plan, procure, build and open – how does that help the young entrepreneur of today who wants affordable, adaptable accommodation now? Don’t get me wrong, we need both. I believe there’s a different paradigm to how you support your young entrepreneurs – it’s called ‘Massive Small’. It focuses on encouraging thousands of relatively small companies to thrive, rather than being solely reliant on the old model of ‘how can we secure a footloose company that’s going to bring 3,000 jobs in one fell swoop?’ The second future legacy is the ‘Meanwhile London’ project, which aims to establish elements of a ‘temporary city’ on pieces of unused or derelict land. London Pleasure Gardens (www. londonpleasuregardens.com), which recently opened at Silvertown Quays, is one of four initial winning schemes.

What happens in every city and town in the UK, if not the world, is when land becomes derelict or unused, it is fenced off and becomes out of sight, out of mind, sometimes for up to half a century. Quite often, it’s in public ownership and in very well located places, but property has to be designed, planned, procured and built, and the end result quite often is that sadly nothing happens. Meanwhile London was launched as a competition, inviting ideas for self-funded projects to transform these areas of empty land. They would have to be started quickly, with the incentive of free or heavily discounted peppercorn rents for two to four years. In both these aspects, it’s all about excess capacity. How you can maximise what already exists there, but in a very practical, fast and affordable way? When the first examples happen, it’s like you’ve lit the blue touch paper and the whole thing goes off and has a life of its own.

Clive Dutton, OBE, executive director, regeneration and inward investment, London Borough of Newham

Clive joined Newham Council as its executive director for regeneration and inward investment in 2009. Prior to his appointment, he was director of planning and regeneration at Birmingham City Council for four years, where he oversaw a dramatic regeneration programme within the city. Projects such as the £600 million New Street Station, £193 million Library of Birmingham and Big City Plan were all developed during his tenure. He has been chairman of the Deputy Prime Minister’s Annual Sustainable Communities Award, and a non-executive director of the British Urban Regeneration Association. He was awarded the OBE in 1998 for services to urban regeneration.


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The legacy of the London Olympics will be so much more than the final medals table

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Thinking beyond tomorrow

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Thinking Beyond Tomorrow